If there’s been any polling relevant to the federal tier over the past week or so it’s escaped my attention, other than the weekly Roy Morgan numbers, with have Labor’s two-party lead in from 58.5-41.5 to 56.5-43.5, from primary votes of Labor 37%, Coalition 34.5% and Greens 13.5%. This was conducted last Monday through to Sunday, with no detail provided on sample size or survey method. The tracking polling of international leaders’ approval conducted by US pollster Morning Consult has recorded a slight weakening in Anthony Albanese’s standing over the past few weeks, with a current result of 57% approval and 31% disapproval, respectively down three and up four from the start of the year. The BludgerTrack poll aggregate, which makes use of results from Newspoll, Resolve Strategic, Essential Research and Freshwater Strategy, likewise records a declining trend in Albanese’s net approval over the past two months.
Poor Angus. But but but.
Taylor is embarrassing!
sprocket_ says:
Sunday, March 5, 2023 at 9:26 am
Angus is on message – tight as a drum. Dutton should be looking over his shoulder.
____________
But, but, Rex promised Albo was under Leadersh1t threat…
‘Fiscal guardrails’ – got that slogan in. Well done, Angus!
Speers is trying hard with Taylor – as Basil Fawlty did with Manuel!
I am distracted by the Pink boots on Insiders.
Snappy Tom
Actually I bought mine from a local importer of Japanese cars including ICE and EV. He had three Leafs in his new shipment. He puts in an English language entertainment head unit and arranges the paperwork.
My estimate is he paid around $10000 at auction and the rest was shipping, admin and a fair commission.
I sold my relatively new Hyundia Accent sport to make the purchase, which got more than I paid for it new, such was the state of the market in 2020.
I recommend using The Good Car Company rather than DIY. There are others in the grey import business but with an EV it helps to use a specialist who knows how to evaluate the battery.
Two quirks with my car: when I start up, I am reminded to install my toll card (in Japanese); and my car came with a pyrotechnic flare which I had to dispose of.
Tanya Plibersek’s claim that she would have won if she ran in 2019 for the leadership belongs in that pile of claims labelled “Lies we tell ourself in retrospect”. Unless the Right had united behind her, which is doubtful, she would have struggled to get more than 30% of the MPs and that would have required a massive membership vote which would have been likely to be more or less line ball.
RoboDebt – after 45 minutes
RoboDebt – after 45 minutes
______
And we’ll be lucky to get 2 minutes’ worth!
Focussing on Stuart Robert’s lying to the public
Insiders actually giving RoboDebt a good run. Now onto the dysfunctional APS involvement
Nuclear subs! – highlighting Dutton’s stupid intervention
Getting back to the topic of this wonderful site (thanks Mr Bowe)
https://news.err.ee/1608904730/estonia-sets-new-e-voting-record-at-riigikogu-2023-elections
Online voting dominates in Estonia, to the extent that the options for voting in Australia are online (dominant), postal (almost zero) or attend the Embassy in Canberra. There was no demand for local consulates to support paper voting this year.
I’ll bring results soon, probably from Tallinn next week, and I’ll also explain the eVoting system soon.
C@tmomma @ Sunday, March 5, 2023 at 8:39 am:
“This is interesting, from a reporter for The Kyiv Post:
Jason Jay Smart
@officejjsmart
KADYROV POISONED?
It is suspected that Ramzan Kadyrov’s kidneys are failing due to poisoning.”
=========================
C@t, I know I’m supposed to be better than this, but I still think this couldn’t happen to a nicer bloke. Except for one….
Bludgers – anyone have a view on whether Labor will actually tax unrealised capital gains?
C@tmomma @ Sunday, March 5, 2023 at 8:46 am:
“Klaus Eriksen
@Fireblade577
·
4m
This is what Russia has achieved so far with its 300,000 conscripts in its much hyped winter offensive:
– Two stalled offensives
– One offensive turning into an absolute disaster
– One as yet unconfirmed pyrrhic victory”
=====================
And this is before all the new, superior weapons systems that NATO members are sending to Ukraine are inn action yet.
Lynchpin, given that there is no gain until its been actually realised, they will leave it alone
Snappy Tom says:
Sunday, March 5, 2023 at 9:29 am
>Lake Liddell. Build another dam, separated by the requisite altitude, increase the flexibility and reduce the running costs of a coal-fired power station.
Who says you even need to build a dam.
looking at Google Earth I find a number of dams next to Bayswater at a higher altitude.
Lynchpin
Taxing unrealised capital gains is stupid, and won’t happen anywhere except in the minds of ex-McKinsey consultants.
There is no model for this. Conversely, there is a extensive model run by the ATO for taxing real capital gains, supported by pages of rules in tax law and dozens of court rulings. Much easier to inherit this framework completely.
BK says:
Sunday, March 5, 2023 at 6:30 am
Good morning Dawn Patrollers. This is possibly the smallest Dawn Patrol ever!
——————————————————————————————
Thanks BK
Sometimes it’s about quality not quantit.
Boerwar @ Sunday, March 5, 2023 at 9:08 am:
“Phyrrus ran out of soldiers. There is no indication that Russia is running out of men. It is too early to call any Russian (or Ukrainian victory) a phyrric victory.”
===========================
BW, your warning that Ukraine is very far from being out of the woods is spot on, but I do think you are missing the woods for the trees a little here. The generally accepted use of the term ‘Pyrrhic victory’ is ‘one earned at too great a cost to have been worth winning’. There is no need for a contemporary victory to exactly replicate Pyrrhus’ complete loss of his army for it to be valid to call it ‘Pyrrhic’.
Given the reported 7:1 ratio of Russian casualties to Ukrainian in the Battle of Bakhmut, alongside the indiscernible strategic benefit on the ground for any offensive or defensive posture for either side in that part of Donetsk, I fully agree with the description of any eventual victory for Russia in this battle as ‘Pyrrhic’. I think it was an absolute blunder for Russia to pursue it as they have. Ukraine, on the other hand, have been exemplary following Napoleon’s advice about what to when your enemy is in the middle of making a mistake.
B.S. Fairman @ #2064 Sunday, March 5th, 2023 – 9:44 am
Tanya can adjust her principles where necessary to get an outcome and appeal to any faction, so getting support comes easy to her.
For example, just recently she promoted herself as a friend of koala’s while at the same time ticking off on massive new fossil fuel projects.
And of course she was Shorten’s strong ally for six yrs during his leadership.
If there was a leadership spill next year though, my money would be on Chalmers. He has unmatched communications skills and a cool temperament, which separates them.
phoenixRED says:
Sunday, March 5, 2023 at 6:54 am
Trump pounces on report Kellyanne Conway is getting divorced from her ‘wacko husband’
——————————————————————————————-
Trump displays less grace, statesmanship, humility, intellect or wit than perhaps any leader, current or former, than I can think of, and that includes most dictators and despots.
One slip up by Angus, in an otherwise masterful performance, was his answer to ‘Do you personally have more than $3m in super?’
He said ‘No’. And followed with deflections.
Should have just stuck with the deflections.
https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/live/2023/mar/04/donald-trump-cpac-2023-bolsonaro-republicans-us-politics-live
Ugh. His Lardship is on the podium.
Dotard is giving a speech at CPAC, with a ‘BIG ANNOUNCEMENT’ promised beforehand…
Here it is…
The relationship between Trump and Kellyanne Conway is complicated, I expect. She testified to the grand jury in the Manhattan District Attorney’s criminal case against him. One has to ask if there isn’t a bit of “scratch my back” in the works. (Michael Cohen is up in front of that grand jury soon.)
I’m not going to harp on about Labor’s recent attack on Super. What’s done is done and Govt coffers will be $2B better off, which should be directed to those living in poverty.
I think S3 is a far more serious issue to address though. Albo is making a politically catastrophic mistake by showing such cowardice on the issue.
C@tmomma says:
Sunday, March 5, 2023 at 7:25 am
That Mark Kenny article suggests a good sobriquet for the Leader of the Opposition: Desperate Dutton
—————————————————————————
C@T
Probably unsurprisingly, there appears also to be a direct correlation between Dutton’s desperation and that of his media advocates.
Eston Kohver @ Sunday, March 5, 2023 at 9:51 am:
Getting back to the topic of this wonderful site (thanks Mr Bowe)
https://news.err.ee/1608904730/estonia-sets-new-e-voting-record-at-riigikogu-2023-elections
Online voting dominates in Estonia, to the extent that the options for voting in Australia are online (dominant), postal (almost zero) or attend the Embassy in Canberra. There was no demand for local consulates to support paper voting this year.
I’ll bring results soon, probably from Tallinn next week, and I’ll also explain the eVoting system soon.
=========================
Eston Kohver, do you think Prime Minister Kaja Kallas’ Reform Party is set for a comfortable re-election? Individually, they have been polling about 4% higher than their vote in 2019, while the Centre Party has been polling about 8% lower.
Lynchpin says:
Sunday, March 5, 2023 at 9:52 am
Bludgers – anyone have a view on whether Labor will actually tax unrealised capital gains?
Will not happen. There is absolutely no advantage in doing so. The Liberals have a feverish dream Labor would do so, and that is a about it.
It should be taxed on inheritance, but isn’t.
Having said that, taxing capital gain on inheritance can destroy businesses and there is no long term gain in doing that, it needs to be handled with care.
Snappy: “There is a simple energy storage technology called “pumped hydro” It involves having two water storage locations (typically dams) quite close to each other, and separated by altitude. It also involves hydro-electric turbines and pumps. All of these things have been around for decades.”
Funnily enough, over a century. Australia, as with all things, has an abundance in resources for that too.
https://re100.eng.anu.edu.au/global/
We should have more of these things, I agree. Expect rabid greens opposition.
Lynchpin: “tax unrealised capital gains?”
Never going to happen.
A look at life on the ground for those remaining in Bakhmut:
“War breeds euphemism and metaphor. In the battle for the Donbas city of Bakhmut, threatened with a closing encirclement by Russian forces after seven months of bitter fighting, there are “White Angels” and “Dark Angels”, the “road of life” (the Bakhmut-Lysychansk highway, which is anything but) and the “Invincibility Centre”.
The White Angels, a police evacuation group, scour the lethal districts of the shell-ruined city to evacuate children and the elderly.
Their counterparts, the Dark Angels, take out the dead. The Invincibility Centre is where the few thousands of civilians who remain can find water and hot food cooked by the volunteers who have stayed in the city, even as in the past fortnight it has faced an increasing threat of finally being overrun.”
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/mar/04/ukraine-last-battle-to-hold-bakhmut
Qld pumped hydro plan
https://statements.qld.gov.au/statements/96233
This is the right thing to do.
Good leadership is about realising a past decision that turned out badly should be adjusted as necessary. Take note, Albo.
Boerwar at 9:11 am
Of course , it always is, as it is ‘their people’ involved. Journos whinging about tax/economic policies should be made to first declare their salary. Given the $$$$$s established ones earn it should come under conflict of interest.
Socrates (and others interested in energy infrastructure)
Hoping all is as well as can be expected with your dad and that he’s comfortable and happy at least.
I thought you might find this article quite interesting. More great work from NEARA, an Australian company.
“Digital modelling has revealed parts of Essential Energy’s distribution network – one of Australia’s largest – can transport twice as much electricity as previously thought, in a development that could help Australia negotiate a tricky energy transition.”
Paywalled
https://www.afr.com/companies/energy/how-ai-unlocked-capacity-across-nsw-s-energy-grid-20230222-p5cmkj
“I’m not going to harp on about Labor’s recent attack on Super.”
A strategic retreat, Integrity?
And a reminder: the “attack on Super” is simply a PROGRESSIVE TAXATION MEASURE on balances above $3 million. Most of the saves will actually come from a handful of folk who have banalnces many times that threshold. Even for “Rex’s Battlers” on balances of say a ‘miserly’ $3.5 million, this measure will only cost those poor souls an additional $5,000 a year in taxation in the accumulation phase, accordingly to a super experts interviewed on ABC radio ‘PM’ show last week.
When will you accept that what is required is a series of similar measures, spread across those tax concessions that cost the national accounts $268 billion pa?
“I’m not going to harp on about Labor’s recent attack on Super. What’s done is done and Govt coffers will be $2B better off, which should be directed to those living in poverty.”
@Rex Douglas
Too late Rex. You jumped on the Labor bashing when it was announced without hesitation. You are not a real progressive. The fact you labelled it a ‘attack on Super’ for people with more then 3 million in super. Is straight from the Liberals playbook.
”Clearly these modest super changes are not big enough in themselves, but I think they are Albo’s ‘beta testing’ of the political marketplace: a test to see how far and how fast labor can go in government to stop the rot.”
A big bang approach would see Labor out on its ear. Even the Coalition, with the support of most of the mainstream media, couldn’t get away with the 2014 Budget. They didn’t sell off the ABC, although we know they and their base want to. They didn’t defund tertiary education in one hit, but several hits over several terms.
Labor, with most of the big megaphones bellowing blue murder at every step, will need to proceed slowly but surely.
frednk says:
Saturday, March 4, 2023 at 8:45 pm
Finally quantum computing explained.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CBLVtCYHVO8
——————————————————————————————
Notwithstanding her intense scepticism about quantum computing, I think she makes some worthwhile points. Her comparison with nuclear fusion was easy to understand. I would say though that despite the time and money taken thus far will, in time, these two technologies will likely prove worthwhile and are worth pursuing.
Enough Already
It’s going to be interesting for sure. The Centre Party lost power after a covid-related scandal in 2021 (by our standards it would be a Morrison level minor pothole) and Reform came to lead the coalition under Kaja Kallas.
Polls suggest Reform will dominate and be asked form a coalition government.
The worry is EKRE, the right wing loony party, is gaining support and may get out the vote. Covid restrictions and high inflation exacerbated by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine will tend to bring out what-about-me nationalism.
Kallas is internationally respected for her outspoken stand in support of Ukraine, and she comes from a political dynasty – her father Siim Kallas has also served as PM, although not without controversy.
Pre 2022 Reform had a coalition with Centre (left leaning) but a power play by Centre caused that coalition to collapse. Indeed, last year Kallas had to excuse herself from an event I was attending to return to talks to form the current coalition which covers a broad political spectrum.
So, the votes will be known within 48 hours. I’m expecting negotiations to form government will take some time, but Kallas’s Reform party is still likely to lead.
Needless to say that scheduling a ministerial level meeting next week is somewhat challenging.
I’ve a suspicion that Trump will dominate the Republicans initially but come the election, Biden may win by default as many Republicans simply won’t vote for Trump.
Snappy Tom @ #2009 Sunday, March 5th, 2023 – 9:04 am
Both P1 and the Rex are bad faith actors.
P1, as she has demonstrated on many occasions, has virtually no actual knowledge about anything at all, including the plants and animals on her own little tourist trap. Combined with a feeble level of intelligence, this is a pitiful combination. You may as well go down to the pub at mid-day and ask the bloke at the end of the bar, on his fifth schooner, to explain the basics of electrical power transmission. Combine that with never being even the slightest bit mistaken, and you have a colossal pain in the arse. She strongly supports Snowy II. Enough said.
Rex is a troll, pure and simple, with the emphasis on simple.
Interaction with either of them is utterly pointless, and a waste of your, our and William’s time and eyeballs. I strongly encourage you, and everyone else, to block them (thanks ar), so that they give up, for the world’s sake.
I’ve written a few papers about pumped hydro and one of my go to references is the study by ANU that shows Australia has an abundance of potential sites for possible development.
We’ve got some political inertia to overcome as new dams became political poison over the past several decades. This seems to be just being worked through now.
https://www.anu.edu.au/news/all-news/anu-finds-22000-potential-pumped-hydro-sites-in-australia
I note the kerfuffle brought on by TP’s ‘helpful’ historical rewriting yesterday.
The problem with TP is … she just ain’t that bright. Nor is there a shred of evidence that she has any political antennae for matters larger than inner city machinations.
The root cause of Labor’s 2019 election loss was the ‘top end of town’ campaign which simply didn’t resonate against the new PM cos-playing as the nation’s daggy dad as it might have against the previous guy.
It was TP’s idea to spend all the saves from Labor’s negative gearing/capital gains and franking credit reforms on social spending. This didn’t resonate with the punters when tax cuts – been ones in the far off distance – were on the board.
Some commentators blame Bowen and Chalmers for that (and that TP article yesterday repeated this line). The truth is that both Bowen and Chalmers argued against this in shadow cabinet, but Shorten backed TB in.
What Bowen in particular wanted, was what PJK advocated & what I have been banging on about on this board – use the ‘saves’ as part of a great tax bargain: S3 would have been blown out of the water if labor took a costed set of rejigged tax cuts – fully funded by the tax concession saves – to that election.
Instead, we are now facing a decade long struggle to claw back that lost opportunity by a series of ‘salami tactics’ modest and incremental reforms to the tax concessions industry. Thanks Tanya: you flog. Thanks Bill …
Donald JTrump,
Ron DeSantis
And Nikki Haley
All have one thing in common.
They are not going to be President after 2024 election.
Nor will Pence or that buffoon Mike Pompeo
I stopped watching Insiders, Q&A and 7.30 a year or so ago as I knew what the interviewee, or for that matter the panel, would say even before they open their mouths.
While both sides of the political fence do it, it seems the Tories are masters of sticking to the party line.
From the posts above referring to Anguish Taylor, I can see I did the right thing by sleeping in on my Sunday morning.
For the novice political follower, I say watch these shows by all means, but I doubt any of them will still be on TV next year.
However, I’ve never, ever missed a live episode of Media Watch, which gives me more truthful political comment than all those others put together.
I’ve said to anyone who is within listening distance, “If I was God, I would force every person on earth to watch Media Watch and Media Bites”.
Truly, Madly, Deeply, the best 20 minutes of TV all week.
HELLO !