If there’s been any polling relevant to the federal tier over the past week or so it’s escaped my attention, other than the weekly Roy Morgan numbers, with have Labor’s two-party lead in from 58.5-41.5 to 56.5-43.5, from primary votes of Labor 37%, Coalition 34.5% and Greens 13.5%. This was conducted last Monday through to Sunday, with no detail provided on sample size or survey method. The tracking polling of international leaders’ approval conducted by US pollster Morning Consult has recorded a slight weakening in Anthony Albanese’s standing over the past few weeks, with a current result of 57% approval and 31% disapproval, respectively down three and up four from the start of the year. The BludgerTrack poll aggregate, which makes use of results from Newspoll, Resolve Strategic, Essential Research and Freshwater Strategy, likewise records a declining trend in Albanese’s net approval over the past two months.
The fossil fuel cartel…
https://twitter.com/atrupar/status/1632171131216986112
“I’ve a suspicion that Trump will dominate the Republicans initially but come the election, Biden may win by default as many Republicans simply won’t vote for Trump.”
@Cronus
The problem in the last Republican primary in 2016. There were too many Republican candidates that splitted the ‘anyone but Trump vote’ which worked to the benefit of Trump. As he was able to consolidate his anti establishment vote and gain momentum with primary victories.
Bernie Sanders like Trump is an outsider despite their politics being very different. In 2020 Democratic primary the Democratic establishment candidates made a coordinated effort to drop out of the race and back Joe Biden. Which was a factor in Biden’s comeback win.
From reading an article history could repeat itself. Considering some of Trumps Republican opponents ended up backing him after he became president. And there doesn’t seem to be the same cordination in the Republicans from the establishment candidates.
Who to believe – Professor Leon or the self-confessed liar Robert …?
Just as he did in his first campaign, Donald Trump painted an incredibly bleak picture of a nation in a “communism state of mind” that’s grinding into oblivion without him in his speech at CPAC Saturday.
He blasted America as a “socialist dumping ground for criminals, junkies, thugs, Marxist radicals and dangerous refugees that no other country wants.” He claimed that people in the country illegally are staying in the U.S. in “beautiful hotel suites.”
He wasn’t much easier on traditional Republicans, whom he ripped as “freaks, neocons, globalist open borders zealots — and fools.”
Trump, who has a close relationship with Russian President Vladimir Putin, claimed he has the “personality to keep us out of war.”
He vowed: “We are never going back to a party that wants to give unlimited money to fight foreign wars that are endless wars, that are stupid,” apparently referring to Ukraine’s fight against the Russian invasion.
He told his supporters: “I am your warrior. I am your justice. For those who have been wronged and betrayed, I am your retribution.”
The man who constantly seeks contributions told the crowd he doesn’t “need money.” Trump added: “Our enemies are lunatics and maniacs. They cannot stand that they do not own me, I don’t need them … I don’t need their money. They cannot steer me, they cannot shake me, and they will never, ever control me.”
If it’s a rerun of 2020 and it is again Biden vs Trump, Biden wins in my opinion.
If it’s Biden vs DeSantis and Trump doesn’t run as a 3rd party spoiler independent – harder to call. Does DeSantis have appeal outside of Florida?
Ah Rex, I think mate you outed yourself as an anti Labor/anti Albanese spokesperson a long time ago, a progressive you are clearly not!
I agree with Spender that we need a complete tax/Govt subsidies overhaul. The priority should be to sustain proper funding of social services like Aged Care, the NDIS, etc.
I suspect this is what Chalmers wants to run with ASAP, but Albo is reluctant to do.
Rex at 11:17
To quote Catullus (94) who might well have been writing about Mr Robert
MENTVLA moechatur. Moechatur mentula? Certe.
Hoc est quod dicunt: ipsa olera olla legit.
(The translation is not safe for work)
Evan @ #2112 Sunday, March 5th, 2023 – 11:28 am
I’m anti-Labor and anti-L/NP given their dedication to preserving the fossil fuel cartel and their policy on offshore asylum seeker political prisons and their neglect of people living in poverty including FN peoples.
He told his supporters: “I am your warrior. I am your justice. For those who have been wronged and betrayed, I am your retribution.”
He neglected to mention he was also their right wing rapist & likely pedophile
Themunz says:
Search for “Robodebt” on SMH shows only three articles this year.
No longer trying to hide bias.
………………………………………………………………………………………………………………..
98.6 replies:- Did they ever try to hide their bias?
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Themunz:- Still claims….. “INDEPENDENT ALWAYS” on masthead!
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98.6:- INDEPENDENT ALWAYS to choose to be biased.
So sad that the hillbillies get sucked in by the likes of Trump, Barnaby and Canavan.
“I can’t understand why this isn’t obvious to these contributors” Those contributors love an LNP
government so they can moan and moan on endlessly, it’s their raison d’être 😡
Evan @ #2105 Sunday, March 5th, 2023 – 11:26 am
Kinda sorta. He’s having his tyres kicked outside of Florida atm. Though as someone perspicaciously observed, De Santis’ appeal is so sky high in Florida because it has the greatest numbers of Baby Boomer retirees in the US, plus capitalist Caribbean and South American emigres. That’s not the rest of the US.
davo @ #2112 Sunday, March 5th, 2023 – 11:55 am
I think you’re onto something there. They may not like Coalition governments but they can live with them because what they really like is whingeing about the ALP, whether in or out of government.
Czechia, through its recently elected President Petr Pavel, is continuing to show the way to other Central European countries in demonstrating full support for Ukraine’s resistance to Russia’s invasion and occupation of their country:
“Petr Pavel, Czechia’s president-elect, reportedly intends to meet with President Volodymyr Zelensy during a visit to Ukraine in July with his Slovakian counterpart Zuzana Caputova, Czech media Ceske Noviny reported on March 4.
The visit will be part of a wider diplomatic trip abroad, including to Brussels, after Pavel’s official inauguration into office on March 9.
Pavel earlier said that Ukraine’s membership in NATO has to be considered after the war with Russia ends.
Since the full-scale war began, Pavel has been known for his steadfast advocacy of military support for Ukraine, saying in February that Kyiv should be given any and all conventional weapons necessary for victory.”
https://kyivindependent.com/news-feed/czech-president-pavel-to-visit-ukraine-in-april
Czechia had been the stage for a large-looking demonstration against supporting Ukraine. However, the result of the January 2023 Presidential election saw 58.3% vote for the retired NATO general with a very clear pro-Ukraine stance. Voters over rent-a-crowds to express popular opinion, for mine.
wranslide says:
Saturday, March 4, 2023 at 10:12 pm
Tanya. Curious story.
………………………………………………………………………………………………………………….
“I coulda been a contender, I coulda been somebody, ”
Lines plagiarised from ‘On The Waterfront’ 1954
That’s all Tanya is saying.
SIMPLE !
De Santis is going to crash and burn. He will not be President
Holdenhillbilly
Trump can say whatever he likes. He will not be President again.
Evan @ #2105 Sunday, March 5th, 2023 – 11:26 am
There’s no way that Trump won’t run as a spoiler candidate if he doesn’t get the Republican nomination. His ego’s too gargantuan and his hatreds likewise.
98.6 @ #2116 Sunday, March 5th, 2023 – 12:05 pm
And lying about it, apparently. Did not have the numbers in Caucus. For one reason or another but I think people would have still had memories of Julia Gillard fresh in their minds, how she toppled a popular male Labor leader especially and Albo is definitely the more popular of the two.
Holdenhillbilly @ #2104 Sunday, March 5th, 2023 – 11:21 am
*yawn* 2016 redux. 😐
Snappy Tom 9:29am
“ Often, half the infrastructure needed for pumped hydro already exists. Liddell power station, for example, draws cooling water from the adjacent Lake Liddell. Build another dam, separated by the requisite altitude, increase the flexibility and reduce the running costs of a coal-fired power station. I thought the Right loved dams – but, apparently, they only love the Right kind of dams.”
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I was listening to a RenewEconomy podcast on exactly this subject not more than a month ago (maybe less). Keep in mind I have no expertise in this area, merely a genuine interest. This gist of it was that many of the existing and proposed sites were not more than 200m in height which is apparently an expensive and inefficient usage of pumped hydro.
The ‘expert’ was saying that highly efficient and cheaper pumped hydro sites required heads (heights) of 500m or more. The improvements and savings were orders of magnitude higher. Apparently this organisation had mapped out many dozens of such sites with heads above 500m and that weren’t in national parks. It would seem that again we have a case (on the assumption that this chap really was an expert) whereby the cart has been put before the horse and that new sets of eyes need to identify the requirements and locations to make best use of this existing but underused capability.
Eston Kohver @ Sunday, March 5, 2023 at 10:50 am:
=============
Eston, thank you very, very much for this. You have helped me considerably to better contextualise the state of play in Estonia this last parliamentary term.
Others here might not appreciate the intensity of Estonia’s contribution towards Ukraine’s resistance to Russia’s invasion. Here is a selection from the list of countries in descending order of bilateral support as a proportion of their GDP:
1. Estonia, 1.07%
2. Latvia, 0.98%
3. Lithuania, 0.65%
4. Poland, 0.63%
5. United States, 0.37%
6. Bulgaria, 0.36%
6. Norway, 0.36%
8. United Kingdom, 0.32%
9. Canada, 0.26%
10. Czechia, 0.24%
11. Slovakia, 0.22%
…
14. Germany, 0.17%
…
22. France 0.07%
…
29. Australia, 0.03%
30. Ireland, 0.02%
Estonia has been an exceptionally helpful friend to Ukrainians in their most desperate need. Thank you!
Political Nightwatchman says:
The problem in the last Republican primary in 2016. There were too many Republican candidates that splitted the ‘anyone but Trump vote’ which worked to the benefit of Trump. As he was able to consolidate his anti establishment vote and gain momentum with primary victories.
——————————
Trump also benefited from the use of open primaries where Democrats were allowed to vote.
And lying about it, apparently. Did not have the numbers in Caucus. For one reason or another but I think people would have still had memories of Julia Gillard fresh in their minds, how she toppled a popular male Labor leader especially and Albo is definitely the more popular of the two.
Whether rightly or wrongly Bill Shorten and Chris Bowen were damaged goods from the devastating 2019 defeat. Tanya Plibersek being deputy probably wore some of the brunt of it as well. Labor caucus were not in the mood to back Plibersek who was at the forefront after the defeat.
Cronus 10.33 and others
Thanks for the kind thoughts. Dad is in the St Vincents Kangaroo Point now, which has a specialist pall care unit. It was a bit of a hassle getting him transferred there but he is comfortable now. I’ll be going up to see him shortly. He is starting to decline, but still has a Bright-Side-Of-Life sense of humour.
Thanks too for the comments on the NSW grid. Interesting. That sort of modelling is not my field. I know SA made advances in adopting large scale RE by improving the software controlling their grid too.
I saw last night a few comments Andrew Earlwood and others made about the defence review and subs. Not much to add at this point. Dutton’s comments on UK subs made the news in UK, and several UK Defence websites, though not in a good way.
On EVs, second hand importing is good. But for large scale reform of our market, IMO the Australian government needs to adopt an EU-style scheme on collective fleet emissions. Self funding or you can use the revenue to rebate some people. It could be structured and pitched as revenue neutral. The current system encourages manufacturers to only send high cost EVs to Australia, and then we subsidise buyers of the high cost vehicles. That is a recipe for a regressive system.
C@t, it is imperative Trump be kept out of the White House for the reason you quote:
“Trump, who has a close relationship with Russian President Vladimir Putin, claimed he has the “personality to keep us out of war.”
He vowed: “We are never going back to a party that wants to give unlimited money to fight foreign wars that are endless wars, that are stupid,” apparently referring to Ukraine’s fight against the Russian invasion.”
😡
Politcal Nightwatchman @ #2125 Sunday, March 5th, 2023 – 12:29 pm
The Coalition would have had a field day with her. The ‘Handbag Hit Squad’ line would have been weaponised, not to mention that Julia Gillard, was her strongest backer. Even though I have massive respect for her.
I would prefer not to play Red Rover with this thing.
https://www.facebook.com/watch?v=677394727519517
Enough Already @ #2127 Sunday, March 5th, 2023 – 12:32 pm
Yes, I was going to add that, the reason he stated that he wanted to make America an isolationist country, was so that he could rule it like an unaccountable king and for other Authoritarian despots like Xi and Putin to be able to run roughshod over their neck of the woods.
Russia cannot win militarily, so it can only destroy what it wants but cannot have:
“Ukraine’s Ministry of Defence says that the Russians are in despair due to their lack of success at the front and are using more and more terror tactics.
Source: Lieutenant General Oleksandr Pavliuk, First Deputy Minister of Defence, during a meeting of the Congress of Local and Oblast Authorities under the President of Ukraine, reported by Ukrinform
Quote: “The Russians are in despair. Due to their lack of success at the front, their tactics are becoming more and more terroristic: they are attacking regions, killing the civilian population, destroying the infrastructure.”
https://www.pravda.com.ua/eng/news/2023/03/4/7392028/
The other problem was the use of open primaries where Democrats were allowed to vote because that benefited Trump.
@Mexicanbeemer
You could be right but I question how much that was a factor. As I haven’t seen anything to suggest that was the case.
It has been done before though. The late Rush Limbaugh in 2008 was encouraging his Republican listeners to register as Democrats and vote for Hilary Clinton in the Democrats primaries to delay the Obama nomination.
“Latvian Prime Minister Krisjanis Karins told the Spiegel on March 4 that he was sure that combat aircraft would be delivered to Ukraine by Western countries, calling it “a matter of time” before the decision is made.
“If the Ukrainians need fighter jets, they should get them,” he said, adding that Ukrainians have repeatedly proven that they quickly learn to operate new equipment.”
https://kyivindependent.com/news-feed/latvian-prime-minister-delivery-of-western-fighter-jets-to-ukraine-a-matter-of-time
Like Estonia, Latvia has real skin in the game and has been putting its resources where its mouth is. They should be listened to.
Cronus @ #2094 Sunday, March 5th, 2023 – 10:53 am
I can’t see that today’s speech at CPAC will help Trump in the general election for President either. It will just remind sensible people what a demagogue tyrant he was and would be again and I don’t think they’ve gotten over the PTSD from that yet.
Mostly Interested says:
Sunday, March 5, 2023 at 10:56 am
I’ve written a few papers about pumped hydro and one of my go to references is the study by ANU that shows Australia has an abundance of potential sites for possible development.
We’ve got some political inertia to overcome as new dams became political poison over the past several decades. This seems to be just being worked through now.
https://www.anu.edu.au/news/all-news/anu-finds-22000-potential-pumped-hydro-sites-in-australia
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Thanks Mostly Interested
I just saw your post. I think that’s the site that supports the podcast results I was mentioned in a later post to Snappy Tom.
Political Nightwatchman @ #2090 Sunday, March 5th, 2023 – 10:43 am
Yes, it can only be correctly characterised as an ‘attack’, if it’s an attack on YOU.
Even Trump could not muster a big crowd at CPAC. He is done.
sprocket_ @ #2075 Sunday, March 5th, 2023 – 10:07 am
Maybe it’s his wife who does? 😉
Political Nightwatchman
“ From reading an article history could repeat itself. Considering some of Trumps Republican opponents ended up backing him after he became president. And there doesn’t seem to be the same coordination in the Republicans from the establishment candidates.”
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I should add that my hypothesis also relies on some of the investigations currently underway resulting in charges and possibly guilty convictions to make Trump’s job more difficult. I suspect it would be challenging for some Republican voters and Republican Presidential Nominees to support him in the event of guilty convictions.
Victoriasays: Sunday, March 5, 2023 at 12:47 pm
Even Trump could not muster a big crowd at CPAC. He is done.
**********************************************************
Critics slammed Donald Trump’s speech at CPAC Saturday as riddled with lies and outrageous, inflated boasts, and marked by a depressing characterization of American life without him in the White House.
Trump did fare well with people at CPAC, though the conference was far more lackluster than when Trump attended as president, and there were many empty seats for many of the speakers.
But the former president ran away with the CPAC straw poll. He was the choice of 62% of the 2,028 CPAC attendees who participated, compared with 20% for Florida Gov. DeSantis, 5% for businessman Perry Johnson, 3% for Nikki Haley and everyone else at 1% or less.
C@tmomma says:
Sunday, March 5, 2023 at 12:42 pm
Cronus @ #2094 Sunday, March 5th, 2023 – 10:53 am
I’ve a suspicion that Trump will dominate the Republicans initially but come the election, Biden may win by default as many Republicans simply won’t vote for Trump.
I can’t see that today’s speech at CPAC will help Trump in the general election for President either. It will just remind sensible people what a demagogue tyrant he was and would be again and I don’t think they’ve gotten over the PTSD from that yet.
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C@T
I certainly hope you’re right and it’d be interesting to be in the US at the moment to get some sense of things though I suspect it’s a bit early to get an accurate feel of vibe. In the event that Trump’s run is unsuccessful, I’m sure he’ll run a spoiler to further disrupt Republican opponents. He’s chock full of vengeance and if he can’t win then he won’t want another Republican to win at any cost.
If the rate of inflation and gasoline prices decline in America, that will help Biden and the Democrats in 2024.
Trump to me is a sociopathic fascist mentally ill idiot.
Evan,
Crazy like a fox.
Robo-tressel probably uses reinforcement learning
to do those clever balancing acts, a little known* but sexy AI technique
that will probably have the most effect on future employment 😯
* by joe public
Personally, I’m impressed by all the realistic and achievable promises that Trump is making this time around… like flying cars!
https://edition.cnn.com/2023/03/03/politics/donald-trump-freedom-cities-flying-cars
Out at Geelong Grammar in my campchair watching the jets at Avalon.
F/A 18F Super Hornet in the air at the moment.
Then the F-35 Lightning II and F-22 Raptor later in the afternoon.
It’s interesting that purported Christians like Stuart Robert have no concerns about the spiritual repercussions of lying their asses off under oath. Almost as if they are well aware it’s all total BS.
Is donny dumpster actually promising *shock* *horror* 15 minute cities! 😯 😆
Cartoon from the Kyiv Post:
Spring is reaching Rasshia.
Serhiy Kolyada: Putin faces the thaw that will melt the Rasshist iceberg.
https://www.kyivpost.com/post/13778
I like how Kolyada portrays the ethnic fractures stitched together to make up Russia’s empire as cracks in the ice.