Recent highlights, such as they are, from a distinctly uneventful New South Wales state election campaign:
• Too late to affect their placement on the ballot paper, the Coalition have disendorsed two candidates in no chance seats this week over past indiscretions on Twitter: 20-year-old Ash Barnham in Cessnock, who has been dropped by the Nationals over comments two years ago denigrating women, gays and Jews, and Liberal candidate Matthew Squires in Wyong, who among other things described homosexuality as a “perversion”.
• A report in the Daily Telegraph on Saturday, which I can’t find online, related a Climate 200 poll showing an effective dead heat between Liberal member Felicity Wilson and teal independent Helen Conway in North Shore, with the former leading 50.7-49.3 on two-candidate preferred. Wilson led 33.6% to 17.9% on the primary vote, with Labor on 16.6%, the Greens on 10.4% and 9.8% uncommitted. The poll had a sample of 600, with no field work dates identified in the report. Liberal sources quoted in The Australian today say the party is concerned about independents in North Shore, Wakehurst and Willoughby, but seemingly less so in Manly and Vaucluse.
• The Financial Review last week reported that Freshwater Strategy found Labor candidate Warren Kirby with a 54-46 lead over Liberal candidate Mohit Kumar in Riverstone, from primary votes of Labor 40%, Liberal 37%, Greens 7% and One Nation 7%. The accompanying report was distinctly light on further detail, but this appears to have been a supplement to the statewide poll published by the paper last week, which was conducted the Thursday to Saturday before last.
UPDATE: Adrian Beaumont’s latest piece in The Conversation draws attention to seat polls I had missed from Redbridge Group, showing Labor 54-46 ahead in Parramatta but the Liberals 51-49 ahead in Penrith (though the accompanying release acknowledges the Liberal vote is “a little under-reported” in the former).
Is it just me or does this NSW election lack a sense of excitement or urgency?
The question is where and why do the Liberal Party endorse these candidates in the first place?
Granted, they have the support of a (singular) community within society, but (we would all trust) do not represent mainstream Australia.
You look at Deeming in Victoria as yet another example, the former Liberal Party Leader saying the Candidate holding the No 1 position on the ballot would not be permitted into the Party Room (then overturned by the current Leader to evade an immediate culture war in the Party ahead of Aston).
So with the views they espouse, how and why are they pre selected by the Party in the first instance?
In dictating stance in regard who you partner with, in regard abortion et al, the Liberal Party present that they are “small government” getting out of people’s lives.
A contradiction never questioned.
In fact, the Liberal Party are a contradiction.
And on a lighter note, it can be put that India and Australia played on the same pitches in India.
Except, India have the spin bowling experience they have, raised on such pitches.
Australia on the other hand select 3 pace bowlers and one spin bowler, raised on traditional pitches (look at the attacks of other Nations, England leading with Anderson and Broad as staples plus one other)
Hence Australia debuting 2 spin bowlers to support Lyon given the pitches presented.
At The Oval, you would expect Australia to go with Cummins, Starc, Hazelwood, Green and one of Lyon or Murphy.
Then Khawaja, Labuschagne, Smith, Head and Green
Plus Carey.
Leaving the question mark over Warner, where there is currently no obvious replacement
Difficult to believe but Cessnock once had a coalition MP. Bob Roberts surprised everyone including himself when he won the seat for the Liberals in the 1988 Greiner landslide.
I guess the selection of a 20 year old gay and Jew hating
misogynist means that the Nationals did not have the seat in its sites this time.
Generally when you are selecting 20 year old candidates it is not a good sign. If you are still a chance to win, someone with a little bit more substance will want to get out there and into the good graces of party leadership/membership (hoping to be an upper house candidate or position within the party).
Not that a 20 yo is always a bad candidate, but it often comes a cropper like this one.
Oakeshott Country says:
Tuesday, March 14, 2023 at 9:18 am
Difficult to believe but Cessnock once had a coalition MP. Bob Roberts surprised everyone including himself when he won the seat for the Liberals in the 1988 Greiner landslide.
I guess the selection of a 20 year old gay and Jew hating
misogynist means that the Nationals did not have the seat in its sites this time.
____________
Given that Cessnock, where I have a bunch of relatives, seems to lurch directly from “ALP” to “Far Right”, maybe the Nats are onto something…
M.Bowe : “Too late to affect their placement on the ballot paper, the Coalition have disendorsed two candidates in no chance seats this week over past indiscretions on Twitter: 20-year-old Ash Barnham in Cessnock, who has been dropped by the Nationals over comments denigrating women, gays and Jews, and Liberal candidate Matthew Squires in Wyong, who among things described homosexuality as a “perversion”.”
Why does this feel like they’re dis-endorsing their base?
Indeed and I have relatives living in Bellbird. This may make the candidate more electable – Pauline Hanson won her first seat BECAUSE she was disendorsed
Think the Cessnock won by the liberal party .. in 1988?
Had different boundaries.. included Singleton?
@Pi
Since when was bigotry part of ‘the base’?
Oakeshott Country says:
Tuesday, March 14, 2023 at 11:07 am
Indeed and I have relatives living in Bellbird. This may make the candidate more electable – Pauline Hanson won her first seat BECAUSE she was disendorsed
………………………………………………………………………………………………………..
The Lord works in mysterious ways.
Pisays:
Tuesday, March 14, 2023 at 10:39 am
M.Bowe : “Too late to affect their placement on the ballot paper, the Coalition have disendorsed two candidates in no chance seats this week over past indiscretions on Twitter: 20-year-old Ash Barnham in Cessnock, who has been dropped by the Nationals over comments denigrating women, gays and Jews, and Liberal candidate Matthew Squires in Wyong, who among things described homosexuality as a “perversion”.”
…………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………….
How did they ever get endorsed in the first place?
HELLO !
Chris O’Keefe on 2GB just dropped a bomb on Perrottett, he has proof the government were definitely looking at privatising bits of Sydney Water. Watch Minns run with this!
And to make it worse for Perrottett, involvement of China in this too.
Oakeshott Country says:
Tuesday, March 14, 2023 at 9:18 am
Difficult to believe but Cessnock once had a coalition MP. Bob Roberts surprised everyone including himself when he won the seat for the Liberals in the 1988 Greiner landslide.
……………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………..
Difficult to believe that Labor’s Bill Hayden’s old seat of Oxley, that he held from 1961 to 1988, was stolen by Pauline Hanson in 1996.
The current Speaker of the House, Milton Dick has held the seat since 2016.
Labor margin in Cessnock is 19%, very safe territory!
James P:
The Liberal Party has roots in protestant Christianity. One of Chrstianity’s tennets is that Jesus has redeemed/can redeem all parts of his followers’ lives, which of course includes their sexual proclivities. Just not sure the greed part gets as much attention in their charter.
Anywho, you were saying the Liberal party base is not bigoted?
Chris O’Keefe on 2GB just dropped a bomb on Perrottett, he has proof the government were definitely looking at privatising bits of Sydney Water. Watch Minns run with this!
Maybe not. It would raise memories of when KK was made an offer for Sydney Water that she was eventually able to refuse. That one will be before the Supreme Court any time now.
A lot of the 2PPs being thrown about for polls at this election look like nonsense. The IND in North Shore would be extremely lucky to gain at close to 0.4 votes per preference to get to 49.3% 2CP given that Carolyn Corrigan (a local teal-adjacent Mayor with extra profile from the 2017 by-election) only gained at 0.26 votes per preference in 2019.
Redbridge have 54 and 49 2PP for Labor in Parramatta and Penrith; I get 57 and 51 off the same primaries.
B.S. Fairman says:
Tuesday, March 14, 2023 at 9:32 am
Generally when you are selecting 20 year old candidates it is not a good sign. If you are still a chance to win, someone with a little bit more substance will want to get out there and into the good graces of party leadership/membership (hoping to be an upper house candidate or position within the party).
Not that a 20 yo is always a bad candidate, but it often comes a cropper like this one.
……………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………..
QLD State LOTO David Crisafulli has the right idea.
He has said he wants to endorse candidates in most of the states electorates by Easter this year,2023, and every seat by the end of this year, for the next state election due in October 2024.
By doing this at least 12 months in advance, anyone and everyone can check out those candidates social media pages, posts, comments, photos-(naked or in NAZI fancy dress), etc etc going back to the day they were born and therefore avoid what has happened to the Liberals and Nationals YET AGAIN where they have had to dis-endorse two candidates just 2 weeks out from the state election.
Pisays:
Tuesday, March 14, 2023 at 10:39 am
M.Bowe : “Too late to affect their placement on the ballot paper, the Coalition have disendorsed two candidates in no chance seats this week over past indiscretions on Twitter: 20-year-old Ash Barnham in Cessnock, who has been dropped by the Nationals over comments denigrating women, gays and Jews, and Liberal candidate Matthew Squires in Wyong, who among things described homosexuality as a “perversion”.”
…………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………….
I can just see Senator Pauline Hanson reading this news of the double dis-endorsements within the coalition with a grin, a mile wide.
I also wouldn’t be surprised that Ash and Matthew are thinking that like Pauline, this may be the break they have been waiting for.
NEVER SAY NEVER
EXPECT THE UNEXPECTED.
The Lord works in mysterious ways.
i dought it hanson was given publisity buy the media which helped her winn as well plus it is not 1996 any more any sydney water deal labor may have considered in 2011 nobody would care abbout its irelivant kenearley left politics
Parramatta is not as exciting as I thought it would be. The battles appear to be elsewhere.
It appears that for the first time in a very, very long time, probably including the early honeymoon period of the first Rudd Government, the state Coalition vote in some areas is actually higher than the federal Coalition vote. It would be most interesting to get into the reasons – and it is probably not just federal drag.
There is a problem with using the 2pp vote in assessing the swings and then stating that so much swing is needed to win a seat is not that simple as the vote is highly fractured with 70 to 75% for the major parties and opv voting systems. There are a series of seats effected by abnormal circumstances.. eg Drummoyne Kiama Monaro seats that can swing Ryde Riverstone Camden. The North shore seats which cannot be won by Labor or the greens but can be won by independents or teals and of course the very marginal seats. East Hills Penrith and upper Hunter . On Balance Labor is likely to win majority government
I would hazard a guess that the people obsessing over Labor corruption 15 years ago while ignoring the more recent Liberal corruption and maladministration, including a number of its most senior figures, were never going to vote Labor anyway.
@Simon – yup. People do have long memories, but unless you’re really locked-in, what happened in 2008 doesn’t really matter to most voters in 2023.
Interesting article in today’s Sydney Morning Herald about how important millennials are as a voting block in this election, they tend to make up a big proportion of voters especially in Western Sydney seats like Parramatta and Penrith.
The NSW Coaliton Government’s decision to move various state government departments and offices to Parramatta is coming back to bite them. Parramatta is now a popular place to live for young professionals who work in the area, who more often than not vote Labor or Green. Doh!
it seems perottit is not very popular and labor could winn
Perrottet is only popular with the Herald. Everyone else seems either “meh” or actively dislike him.
Herald attempting to make a state election a “referendum on gambling policy”. Desperate times.
S.Simpson – and according to the SMH’s own poll a couple of weeks ago, only 2% of voters rated gambling reform as an important issue this election.
True Evan. Begs the question why it is suddenly a massive issue that somehow pales in comparison to every other issue. It reminds me of the “moral panic” around alcohol consumption and lock out laws. No fan of pokies but it is clear that most pokies losses are due to a small minority of problem gamblers, not a punter who puts $20 in Queen Of The Nile after they down a chicken schnitzel.
well that 4 corners stunt on gambling failed to make perottit some anti gambling hearow no body cared i think there will be a labor majority government evry time labor is in a winning position we get the hung parliament speculation because labor could not posibly form a majority desbite the fact they won Bega in 2021 foor the first time ever
well the 4 corners story atempting to make Dominellow some sort off hearow failed dont think any body caired tim costellowproved to be a liberal when he anowsed he was backing the lix liberal protending to be an anti pockies independent inminns seat of all the seats he chose Minns seat because the liberals have no chance of pickingit up the only reason last time was daileys coments the liberals could not even winn cogra in 2011most people would not have any idea how victor was he is retiring any way
the smh desperation to make pockies an ishue desbite no body being interested is like perottit other his new kids supper policy did not last a day no body could explain it andhis foor ever land tax targiting first home buyers also failed as soon as minns agried to a trial the publick moved on
My impression is that the cashless gaming card thing might get Perrottett votes but only in safe Liberal seats that he holds already. Why is the SMH pushing the issue so hard and pressuring Minns to follow suit? Good question.
Evan says:
Wednesday, March 15, 2023 at 5:31 pm
My impression is that the cashless gaming card thing might get Perrottett votes but only in safe Liberal seats that he holds already. Why is the SMH pushing the issue so hard and pressuring Minns to follow suit? Good question.
…………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………..
Good answer coming up.
I doubt there are any votes for any party in any seat stemming from the cashless gaming card.
Minns neutered it weeks ago.
The SMH think they can show up Minns and Labor as just “copy cats’ and not having thought up policies of their own.
Does anyone in the media remember what ICAC exposed while grilling Miss ‘Gladdis’ Personality?
Another good question.
S. Simpson says:
Wednesday, March 15, 2023 at 4:01 pm
No fan of pokies but it is clear that most pokies losses are due to a small minority of problem gamblers, not a punter who puts $20 in Queen Of The Nile after they down a chicken schnitzel.
…………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………….
Excellent Simpson. Either we both go to the same club where Queen of the Nile is played or shock horror, there could be other clubs with poker machines out there with the same name and serving the same chicken schnitzel.
Yes and the whole Crime Commission report and its recommendation are a govt/Lib party hoax.
Thank god for the morals of Chris Minns and clubs Nsw.
Pokie laws seems like this elections version of the “Stadiums or Hospitals” scare campaign ran by Peter Fitzsimmons last election.
Unlike last election, the ALP haven’t fallen for the esoteric complaints of the boomer north shore women screaming about stadiums. They forgot that a lot of blokes in Sydney only interact with Council/Government facilities when they go to a stadium and so aren’t going to vote to stop new stadiums that might cost up to a billion dollars but that will last 40+ years instead of just shovelling that cash into the gigantic gaping maw of the education and health budgets and running them for a week.
They have stuck to the core focus of economy/infrastructure and having the trains run on time. I reckon the Bushfire pork barrelling and the recent train failures have sealed Perrotet’s fate.
Pre-Poll Voting.
Pre-poll voting commences, this saturday, 18th March.
Due to work commitments, my wife and I will be voting early, next week.
For those coastal, coasties the CWA Hall in Terrigal is a designated pre-poll booth – with plenty of parking, too.
C@tmomma, it was good, to finally see some decent attack ads from the ALP on SBS, last night. I hope that they have a greater impact than the wishy-washy ones which have been running for the past three weeks, especially with Pre-Polling commencing this weekend.
Are you officiating at the CWA Hall? If so, we may be able to give you a big, Hello! However, like the 2022 Federal Election, I believe that, despite the polling, most voters have already decided upon their voting intentions prior to the election campaign.
I don’t watch much commercial TV these days, but SBS certainly are wall to wall attack ads from both Minns and Perrottett. But are TV ads much of a thing in election campaigns in 2023, as both major parties concentrate far more on social media and online forums?
And with the total lack of any opinion polling, other than a few probably unreliable individual seat polls, who knows what the real picture really is in NSW, have most people even engaged yet and noticed that an election is taking place on March 25?
A minority government of some sort is my guess, I can’t see either Perrottett or Minns getting 47 seats or more for a majority. Labor certainly has to gain in Western Sydney – the likes of Penrith, Parramatta, Riverstone, Winston Hills, East Hills and Leppington(which is notionally theirs on the redistribution), and maybe also pick up a regional seat like Upper Hunter or Goulburn or Tweed, and at the same time hope the Liberals lose a seat like Pittwater to the Teals.
Odds are at least 1 or 2 independents win on North shore. Labor will pick up seats. Seats outside the normal expected range of less than 10% are possible. The normal range seats up to 8% are also competitive. This should equal a alp majority government
I know little of the ins and outs of N.S.W. state politics living in Qld as I do but always enjoy election nights no matter the state or territory. I’ll be watching the results come in on the 25th of this month via this blog and on tv and whilst I do have my own political bias, I speculate this election is not generating much interest judging by this page. Does that augur well for the incumbent government or the opposition? Has the electorate made up its mind, perhaps long ago, in favor of one over the other? Is it the lack of polling details? For what it’s worth a win is a win, I guess.
Evan says:
Thursday, March 16, 2023 at 9:51 am
I don’t watch much commercial TV these days, but SBS certainly are wall to wall attack ads from both Minns and Perrottett. But are TV ads much of a thing in election campaigns in 2023, as both major parties concentrate far more on social media and online forums?
……………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………
Like you Evan I don’t watch much commercial TV, in fact I don’t watch any, its ABC channel 2 or more likely if the TVs on its ABC News 24/7.
But to answer your question re election campaign ads, I think they have no effect what so ever, but even if they did you would think that each side’s ads would counteract the other.
The buzz is and has been for several years now for parties to concentrate on social media but whether its TV, newspaper or social media, its all wasted on me, as I have never voted for any party except Labor.
Mick Quinlivan says:
Thursday, March 16, 2023 at 11:14 am
Odds are at least 1 or 2 independents win on North shore. Labor will pick up seats. Seats outside the normal expected range of less than 10% are possible. The normal range seats up to 8% are also competitive. This should equal a alp majority government.
…………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………
Very nicely summarised, Mick.
You sound as though you have been asked by The Insiders host David Speers to give your ‘final observations’ on the NSW state election.
Mick: Pretty spot on mate with your comments above, any seat on the Coalition side with an 8% margin or less is fair game for Labor and the Teals too if the swing is on.
Pittwater and Wakefield are worth watching too because of the retiring long time MP factor and strong independent candidates running against Liberal newbies.
98.6 – Great minds think alike, enjoy your posts too.
Marco125: A very low key vibe to this election, maybe it will pick up next week. Like you mate, I am an election nerd, I follow all the state elections, not just my home state one.
marc0125 says:
Thursday, March 16, 2023 at 1:14 pm
I speculate this election is not generating much interest judging by this page. Does that augur well for the incumbent government or the opposition? Has the electorate made up its mind, perhaps long ago, in favor of one over the other? Is it the lack of polling details?
…………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………….
I’m sure this election is just as interesting as any state election has ever been but I also query this page’s apparent lack of interest, especially when compared with Victoria’s last state election on PB.
Still with 9 full days to go plus another poll or two, I expect all that will change.
Just perhaps, everyone on PB knew with absolute certainty that Dan would romp in going from the polls but the NSW polls, even though they have Labor in front, PBs are still being cautious.
I live in a very safe Liberal seat, Wahroonga, and the Labor candidate is an 18 year old in his first year of Uni who was only preselected at the start of last week, in other words Labor know they have no chance around here and they are throwing zero resources into any local campaign. In the seat next to Wahroonga, which is Epping, the Labor candidate is running a vigorous campaign against the Premier in his own seat. The best chance for a Labor gain in the North of Sydney would be Ryde, and even that is a long shot.
As well as a Terrigal pre poll Central Coast voters can vote at the Peninsula Community Centre in Woy Woy.
I’ll be handing out HTVs there and I assume C@tmomma will be as well.