Polls: Indigenous voice in WA and Morgan voting intention (open thread)

A poll that uses the exact wording to be featured on the ballot paper finds support for an Indigenous voice holding up in Western Australia.

The West Australian had a poll on Tuesday from Painted Dog Research that put the exact question to be featured on the ballot paper at the Indigenous voice referendum found a 60-40 of its WA-only respondent base coming down in favour, with sharp distinctions by age (71-29 in favour among 18-to-34, 63-37 in favour among 35-to-54 and 53-47 against among 55-plus) and gender (69-31 for yes among women compared with 51-49 among men). The poll was conducted over the weekend from a sample of 1052,

The only other poll news unrelated to Aston that I have to hang a new open thread off is the regular Roy Morgan result, which has Labor’s two-party lead at 57-43 from primary votes of Labor 35.5%, Coalition 32% and Greens 13%. The poll was conducted last Monday to Sunday, so may have picked up static from the New South Wales election, with an unreported sample size.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

790 comments on “Polls: Indigenous voice in WA and Morgan voting intention (open thread)”

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  1. Mexicanbeemer @ #150 Friday, March 31st, 2023 – 12:59 pm

    B.S. Fairman
    And the less detail given about the how the process is going to operate when there is a Voice, the more misinformation will be created. Rumours will start about there being hundreds of people being elected to the Voice and the members being paid MP salaries.
    ——————–
    Already seen that on social media someone claim because there are 300 tribes the voice would have 300 members and another 300 members to make it gender equal.

    Which just proves that numpties on social media know shit all.

    There will be elections in each tribal group and those people subsequently elected will go on to another election which will elect the final group for the Voice to Parliament. I’m not quite sure of the final number but it’s a LOT less than 600.

  2. Traditionally, the Coalition received a higher portion of the female vote than the male vote. That was back in the days when the Liberals and Country / Nationals looked much more than traditional conservatives. It was said that it was the women’s vote that kept Menzies in power.

    On the other hand, the radical right wing stuff and culture warriors characteristic of modern “conservatives” seem to appeal to more men and repel more women.

  3. C@T
    Which just proves that numpties on social media know shit all.

    There will be elections in each tribal group and those people subsequently elected will go on to another election which will elect the final group for the Voice to Parliament. I’m not quite sure of the final number but it’s a LOT less than 600.
    —————-
    I’ve heard its 24.

  4. ”And the less detail given about the how the process is going to operate when there is a Voice, the more misinformation will be created.”

    And any detail provided will be ignored or misrepresented

  5. So what else could be in the 34 Dotard charges? Watch for:

    1. Hush money to Playboy Bunny Karen McDougal, with he also allegedly had sex whilst his wife Melania was pregnant – and potentially accounted for as ‘legal expenses’
    https://www.newyorker.com/news/news-desk/donald-trump-a-playboy-model-and-a-system-for-concealing-infidelity-national-enquirer-karen-mcdougal

    2. His long time accountant, Allen Weiselberg, has been singing like a canary – to avoid spending the rest of his life in jail for cooking Trump’s books for him.

  6. Mexicanbeemer:

    But more seriously it’s a fascinating question that’s probably more complex than simply sticking a label on it.

    Probably a part of it is men growing up being socialised to believe other people should be listening to their Voice, not that they should be listening to the Voice of others.

  7. C@t

    The Lincoln Project are convinced this will cause Trump’s polling to skyrocket, and he is a shoo-in for the Republican nomination.

    The conclusion to the cases will be dragged out in courts, and in the court of public opinion/outrage – beyond November 2024

  8. There will be elections in each tribal group and those people subsequently elected will go on to another election which will elect the final group for the Voice to Parliament. I’m not quite sure of the final number but it’s a LOT less than 600.

    It doesn’t matter now anyway: the referendum is just to give Parliament the power to create the Voice, there will be plenty of time to debate the speeds and feeds when Parliament is considering the legislation to do so.

  9. [‘The kind of thing a scumbag would write’: Andrew Bolt condemns Latham.

    Right-wing commentator and Sky News presenter Andrew Bolt has vowed to never have Mark Latham on his show again, joining a chorus of voices from across the political spectrum in condemning the NSW One Nation leader for his homophobic attack on Sydney MP Alex Greenwich.

    “It was the kind of thing a scumbag would write – a drunk one – except he wrote it not at night, but at 10:30am,” he said on last night’s Bolt Report on Sky News, referring to a since-deleted tweet posted by Latham yesterday morning. “Not for the first time I wonder if he has some issue that he needs seeing to.”

    Bolt said Latham had become a “real problem” for One Nation leader Pauline Hanson who had tried to rein her NSW party leader in to no avail.

    Latham will re-enter the upper house as one of three One Nation MLCs, but the party will not get a second seat as it had hoped. Bolt, who has long been a critic of so-called cancel culture, made it clear Latham was no longer welcome on his show.

    “We talked elections [when Latham last appeared on The Bolt Report], but never again,” he said. “Latham seems to have a self-destruct button, and he’s punching it just far too often.”] – SMH

  10. Sprocket_ @ #159 Friday, March 31st, 2023 – 12:48 pm

    C@t

    The Lincoln Project are convinced this will cause Trump’s polling to skyrocket, and he is a shoo-in for the Republican nomination.

    The conclusion to the cases will be dragged out in courts, and in the court of public opinion/outrage – beyond November 2024

    Important to differentiate polling for the GOP nomination and general election polling.

    The first test of the first of those will be how many GOP reps defend him and how much they clamour over each other to do so. Will they all demand investigations into the DA? The only reason they would do this is fear that Trump and his cult will target them in the next primary if they dont. F, even Pence is double talking on this saying the case is a disservice to the US and an outrage and political persecution while incredibly also saying “no one is above the law, including former presidents,” that he cannot “speak to the merit of this case at all.” (From CNN). What a D/head.

    As for general election….. Yeah, I suspect he will think keeping this in the courts for a long time is to his advantage wrt the GOP primary but I dont think so when it comes to November 2024. Independents and moderate Republicans (while not many of those left) are over the cray cray. They want some sanity in government. And it will help get out the antitrump vote and unite the centre, centre left and left.

    Man, how did this louse of a human develop such a cult following that it took over the GOP and instils such fear among his GOP rivals?

  11. Sprocket_ says:
    Friday, March 31, 2023 at 1:18 pm
    C@t

    The Lincoln Project are convinced this will cause Trump’s polling to skyrocket, and he is a shoo-in for the Republican nomination.

    The conclusion to the cases will be dragged out in courts, and in the court of public opinion/outrage – beyond November 2024
    ————————————————————————————

    Those Republicans who were going to vote for Trump were always going to do so regardless of charges. What I can’t see is people who weren’t going to vote for him changing their minds simply because of the charges.

    This leaves the doubtfuls and who knows what will motivate them to vote one way or another. I suspect a larger percentage will choose not to vote at all as is often the response in the US.

  12. Life imitates art? All those cartoons depicting Trump as a jailbird are starting to come to life.

    Fingerprinted, photographed and possibly handcuffed: How Trump’s arrest will play out
    In the days ahead, Donald Trump is expected to walk through the routine steps of criminal arrest processing in New York.
    1 hour ago (SMH)

  13. Cronussays:
    Friday, March 31, 2023 at 12:59 pm

    Agree the more EV models the better but from reports all but two EV makers are still losing money. The hunger games are on and blood is being spilt.

    How reviewers conduct their comparison tests will be a challenge and a test of their impartiality.
    The “Car of the Year” awards for 2023 are a joke.

  14. And for all those supporters of Trump who are raging at the charges, it’s important to remember that they stem from a decision by a Grand Jury, not a politician or even single judge, but rather a jury of his peers who have found there is sufficient evidence to support the indictment.

  15. Themunz says:
    Friday, March 31, 2023 at 1:55 pm
    Cronussays:
    Friday, March 31, 2023 at 12:59 pm

    Agree the more EV models the better but from reports all but two EV makers are still losing money. The hunger games are on and blood is being spilt.

    How reviewers conduct their comparison tests will be a challenge and a test of their impartiality.
    The “Car of the Year” awards for 2023 are a joke.
    ——————————————————

    I totally agree, this will lead into a new EV era of Holden V Ford, preferences and tribalism will be wildly different I suspect but all to a good end.

    And certainly there are some serious failures coming down the pipeline, both new entrants and legacy automakers. Market forces.

  16. This leaves the doubtfuls and who knows what will motivate them to vote one way or another……

    There are other factors to consider. Trump lost in 2020 because he lost narrowly in a 4 states. It doesnt take much to shift things;
    GOP efforts to control democracy in some of those states may be enough to bring them back to red no matter what loonie is the nominee.
    Maybe some who voted Democrat in 2020 stay home and maybe Trump gets more of the nutters out to vote this time. With only 66% of adults bothering to vote in 2020 it leaves plenty of slack for Trump and those trying to control peoples social media feed to work on.

    It is a looooong way out but worth mentioning the RCP average for TrumpvBiden 2024 has Biden only 1pt ahead. There have been reputable polls this year of Registered Voters with Trump 3-4 pts ahead.

  17. Sprocket_ @ #161 Friday, March 31st, 2023 – 1:18 pm

    C@t

    The Lincoln Project are convinced this will cause Trump’s polling to skyrocket, and he is a shoo-in for the Republican nomination.

    The conclusion to the cases will be dragged out in courts, and in the court of public opinion/outrage – beyond November 2024

    Yes, but as has also been pointed out, this segment of American society is nowhere near the majority. Plus, it seems like a majority of this minority are smart enough to realise what will happen to them if they do break the law for Trump. Also, New York has 38000 Police compared to under 1000 Capitol Police in DC.

    It seems the only brainless, and spineless ones not standing up to Trump, are the Republican House Members, Ron De Santis and J D Vance. The rest of the Republican Senators have so far been silent.

  18. @Team Katich: Indeed. And in the US with voluntary voting, what Trump needs most of all to win is for his supporters to turn out again at the same unprecedented rate as last time while Biden supporters are just slightly less enthusiastic in a small handful of target states. He could easily win without winning the overall popular vote.

    As such I agree with the Lincoln Project that being indicted only helps him in terms of turning out the base. He’s not going to win over new voters, but is Biden either?

    This is all about turning out the respective bases.

    HOWEVER, if Trump can be convicted in time (how can anyone find a completely unbiased jury in America when it comes to Trump to have a trial?!) then he’s done because he can’t lawfully run. His subordinates will howl about democracy but you know, sucks to be them.

  19. it is ironick given trumps slogan against clintin and the judges that rejected his vote froard claims lock them up that when it looks like he is in trouble he claims he did nothing rong perhaps politicaly it would be smarter ifhe was not convicted due to the likely pole serge but this would send a terible mesige that if you can brain wash enough people you can avoid justis

  20. Politcal Nightwatchman says:
    Friday, March 31, 2023 at 11:52 am

    Right wing governments will face difficulties because their default setting is assimilation, small government and with a side of racists.

    There is no small government with the Liberal party. For all of John Howard’s talk of small government public servants blew out under his watch. Scott Morrison offered the crossbenchers a bribe of four electoral staff and four advisers. The ‘live within our means’ they trumpeted the debt exploded to be five times greater under their watch then Labor’s. And the Liberal politicians that sprout their belief in small government have spent most of their working life on the public purse and accept government jobs after parliament that are at tax payers expense. Their whole mantra is really quite hypocritical.
    ____________

    A further contribution towards A_E’s view of the Libs as an 80 yr marketing scam.

  21. HOWEVER, if Trump can be convicted in time (how can anyone find a completely unbiased jury in America when it comes to Trump to have a trial?!) then he’s done because he can’t lawfully run

    it depends on what he is convicted of. I am pretty sure this NY case does not stop him becoming the GOP nominee, running for President, winning and governing from jail.

  22. Team Katich,
    Maybe a nom change to Eeyore?

    Trump is a loser.

    He couldn’t win the 2020 POTUS election.
    He couldn’t get Purdue or Loeffler into the Senate.
    He couldn’t get Mehmet Oz into the Senate.
    He couldn’t get Kari Lake, Blake Masters or Mark Finchem elected in Arizona.
    He couldn’t get Herschell Walker into the Senate.
    He helped turn the 2022 Blue Wave into a Blue Puddle.

    He incited one Insurrection but people are now aware of what he’s capable of and I don’t think there’ll be another. Because he’s no longer President.

  23. Boerwar @ #172 Friday, March 31st, 2023 – 1:52 pm

    One building company has collapsed. Another has gone into voluntary liquidation. Total of around 2300 partially completed or contracted builds have been halted.

    https://www.abc.net.au/news/2023-03-31/home-builder-porter-davis-liquidation-lloyd-group-administration/102170136

    It amazes me. But never underestimate how badly executives and managers can run a company (just because you are a CEO CFO or whatevs, doesnt mean you cant be incompetent). Or how short-term selfishness can bite back.

  24. MelbourneMammoth says:
    Friday, March 31, 2023 at 12:45 pm

    The militarised police and army in the US will probably only stomp on an indicted or convicted person if they were someone of color. They would probably give Trump less than a slap on the wrist. The lion’s share of them probably are MAGA supporters themselves who would otherwise be thugs (in an ideal world) headed for jail. Welcome to institutionalized racism par excellence.
    ____________

    Orange?

  25. TBH Trump should have been charged with attempting to solicit election fraud in early 2021 while the iron was hot, stemming from his attempt to steal the election in Georgia. Prosecute that while the shock from January 6 was still fresh and Republicans were unsure whether to stick or twist. It’s on tape! It should be open and shut.

    “I just want to find 11,780 votes” “there’s nothing wrong with saying that, you know, um, that you’ve recalculated.” – it’s impossible to read this any other way than Trump wanted Raffensperger to announce a false voting number on the basis of a lame excuse that he’d “recalculated” and illegally certify it (probably with no understanding of how many different audit trails would make it apparent that the new number was a complete invention).

    For various political reasons this was completely bottled. I know it’s possible it will still happen – but it should have been a quick process laser-focussed on the most obvious least deniable point of attack, and done in 2021. Turning it into a major investigation has merely slowed it down.

  26. C@t – I tried Henny Penny. It didnt stick.

    But if you read back, my interpretation of events is that this will help Trump in the GOP nomination but hurt him in Nov 2024. I just caveat that by reminding peeps of a few things like the current polling and the exceptional nature of the United Nuthouse of America.

  27. It has been said that the Jack Smith federal case over the Classified Documents will end up being the first one to come to trial in federal court.

  28. Dale Carnegie: How to Win Friends and Influence People
    Nick McKim: How to Lose Friends and Antagonise People

    Greens senator Nick McKim says climate groups are too afraid to push for change against ‘ecocidal’ government
    Australia’s environment movement needs to ‘collectively get its shit together’, senator says
    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2023/mar/31/greens-senator-nick-mckim-blasts-climate-groups-after-divisions-over-safeguard-mechanism

  29. Team Katich

    There has been a string of home builder collapses in WA, though not on the scale of the Victorian company.

    The common theme seems to be they signed contracts for work which they are always unlikely to be able to complete in good time.

    A novel excuse trotted out the other day by one industry figure was that it was McGowan’s fault because he had provided too many incentives for first home buyers!

    If history is any guide the people behind the failures will be back in business soon enough. Few people can do a phoenix act quite like a builder.

  30. Snappy Tom @ #179 Friday, March 31st, 2023 – 2:31 pm

    MelbourneMammoth says:
    Friday, March 31, 2023 at 12:45 pm

    The militarised police and army in the US will probably only stomp on an indicted or convicted person if they were someone of color. They would probably give Trump less than a slap on the wrist. The lion’s share of them probably are MAGA supporters themselves who would otherwise be thugs (in an ideal world) headed for jail. Welcome to institutionalized racism par excellence.
    ____________

    Orange?

    Orange is the new Black.

  31. Team Katich @ #183 Friday, March 31st, 2023 – 2:32 pm

    C@t – I tried Henny Penny. It didnt stick.

    But if you read back, my interpretation of events is that this will help Trump in the GOP nomination but hurt him in Nov 2024. I just caveat that by reminding peeps of a few things like the current polling and the exceptional nature of the United Nuthouse of America.

    Yes, and I read that. However, I think that Trump has maxxed out his turnout and I don’t believe there are millions more voters, or even in the 10s of thousands in swing states, hiding under the bed waiting to come out and vote for him.

    It’s one thing to vote for a President you are in awe of. It’s another to vote for a twice impeached Presidential candidate, under multiple indictments who has already made it clear that he wants to be a dictator, not a president. That’s a pretty limited subset of Republican voters.

    I repeat. There was no Blue Wave in 2022. Despite the urging of Trump. And despite 538’s prediction.

  32. @C@t: Hillary Clinton and Democrats underestimated Trump once, he really didn’t lose 2020 by very much, and Biden is much less popular than he was in 2020 which is the main thing that worries me about turnout. IS Trump less popular than 2020? I’m not sure. Better safe than sorry and fight tooth and nail all the way to the line I’d say with Trump.

  33. If history is any guide the people behind the failures will be back in business soon enough. Few people can do a phoenix act quite like a builder.

    Yep.
    But the excuses given are often way off the mark. Supply chain, material costs, labour etc. I know so many builders who refuse to start a job or finish it if the client doesnt stump up extra to cover blowouts on a fixed price job.

    There are likely many reasons. Mostly incompetence and greed and with more than a dash of dodgy.

  34. Arky @ #189 Friday, March 31st, 2023 – 2:39 pm

    @C@t: Hillary Clinton and Democrats underestimated Trump once, he really didn’t lose 2020 by very much, and Biden is much less popular than he was in 2020. IS Trump less popular than 2020? I’m not sure. Better safe than sorry and fight tooth and nail all the way to the line I’d say with Trump.

    Joe Biden beat Trump when he was at the peak of his powers over the people. There wasn’t even a pity party for Trump in the 2022 Mid Terms. I think the apocalyptic fear of Trump’s power over the people who support him now is misdirected and overblown. It seems as though the only people who came out after his first call for them to defend him last Tuesday were brainwashed readers of the Epoch Times.

    Police have to swear to uphold and defend the law and if anyone tries to break it in NY, I don’t think they’re going to let them get away with it. Or even in Republican States.

  35. Team Katich says:
    Friday, March 31, 2023 at 2:32 pm

    C@t – I tried Henny Penny. It didnt stick.

    But if you read back, my interpretation of events is that this will help Trump in the GOP nomination but hurt him in Nov 2024. I just caveat that by reminding peeps of a few things like the current polling and the exceptional nature of the United Nuthouse of America.
    ____________

    “United Nuthouse of America” – love it!

    Those of us who enjoy watching American Football may recall most broadcasts begin with advice on how to select Spanish-language commentary.

    United States of America -Estados Unidos de América

    United Nuthouse of America – Casa de nueces Unidos de América

  36. Isn’t the building industry’s main problem signing up to tons of fixed price contacts in advance (from competing too hard for customers with each other) that have turned awful due to inflation?

    As a lawyer, this reminds me of the reason most of the industry sticks with the billable hour. You know where you are with an hourly rate. Badly judged fixed prices for work which can always turn into a major job if you’re unlucky is a business destroyer.

    I had a building industry client once who was a specialist at a particular niche area, the best subcontractor in town for it. He lost his first business before I acted for him because he agreed a fixed price for a major job where it turned out there was shit-tons of previously unknown asbestos in the walls of the old building and it tripled the cost of his work. After that he’d never take on a job without either an “out” or an ability to renegotiate price if a major latent condition like that was discovered. Better to not have the contract than to be betting his entire business again on the one contract if it went bad.

  37. I repeat. There was no Blue Wave in 2022. Despite the urging of Trump. And despite 538’s prediction.

    Red Wave?
    It is a midterm – and in the Trump era I dont think the usual rules apply. The Trump rump control the House. Wave or not, that is a win. The democrats did well in the senate but it was a good cycle for them. But again – it was a mid term. I dont take huge lessons away from it for 2024.

    538 say their model doubted there would be a red wave. Where did they predict one?

  38. ‘Team Katich says:
    Friday, March 31, 2023 at 2:30 pm

    Boerwar @ #172 Friday, March 31st, 2023 – 1:52 pm

    One building company has collapsed. Another has gone into voluntary liquidation. Total of around 2300 partially completed or contracted builds have been halted.

    https://www.abc.net.au/news/2023-03-31/home-builder-porter-davis-liquidation-lloyd-group-administration/102170136

    It amazes me. But never underestimate how badly executives and managers can run a company (just because you are a CEO CFO or whatevs, doesnt mean you cant be incompetent). Or how short-term selfishness can bite back.’
    —————————-
    It is interesting. They have to take risks to do business. There have been some unusual risks which will (a) catch incompetents and (b) take out those whose risk margins are out there. What I feel sorry for here are the people who bought homes in good faith, the suppliers, the workers and the subbies. There is usually a long tail with these things.

  39. There were huge turn outs in 2020. Trump lifted the Republican base turn out hugely.

    However, largely because of a new found love with the convenience of mail in ballots (so no long lines for hard working, tired working class democrats queuing at the scarce number of urban polling centres) plus Millenials, many women demographics and independents being turned off trump, Biden lifted the Democrat turn out by an even bigger margin.

    What is most intriguing was the extent to which the democrats were still able to get people out in the mid terms. Sure the vote was down for candidates on both sides of the isle, but the ‘incumbent’ party (this time the democrats) suffered a much smaller decline than what is typical. Even though polling for Biden, harris and sentiment about the direction of the country remained poor and even though inflation was running rampant.

    Trump wasnt even on the ballot, but such is the toxicity for the Republican Party folk still cared enough to turn out and vote against the republicans. I think this sentiment is going to be magnified hugely at the presidential election, with or without Trump on the ballot. Millennials and Gen Z in particular are repulsed and they seem to care enough (as opposed to the feckless gen X when they were in their 20s) too actually … vote.

  40. “Isn’t the building industry’s main problem signing up to tons of fixed price contacts in advance (from competing too hard for customers with each other) that have turned awful due to inflation?”

    It’s the banks’ fault.

    You will seriously struggle to get finance for building work with anything but a fixed-price contract. All risk on the builder, unless they walk away then its on the homeowner. But none on the bank in either case.

  41. Cronus says:
    Friday, March 31, 2023 at 2:50 pm

    Snappy Tom says:
    Friday, March 31, 2023 at 2:31 pm
    MelbourneMammoth says:
    Friday, March 31, 2023 at 12:45 pm

    The militarised police and army in the US will probably only stomp on an indicted or convicted person if they were someone of color. They would probably give Trump less than a slap on the wrist. The lion’s share of them probably are MAGA supporters themselves who would otherwise be thugs (in an ideal world) headed for jail. Welcome to institutionalized racism par excellence.
    ____________

    Orange?
    ———+———-

    Rajneeshees! Remember the Bhagwan in Oregan in the 70s.
    ____________

    Back when Uniting Church youth events actually attracted people, we had a succession of huge Easter Camps in the Hunter. Attendance was so large (400+), to help build communal relating, several ‘communities’ of about 50 were formed, containing small discussion groups of about 8.

    Initially, communities were numbered, but that got boring, so they were later identified by colour.

    In 1984, I was one of 3 ‘community leaders’ in – you guessed it – Orange Community! I was quickly referred to as The Bhagwan…

    The following year I was a leader in a community with a Red colour – but we decided to identify as ‘Strawberry’. Our musos did a pretty good rendition of ‘Strawberry Fields’.

    Easter Camp was not often a great thing for fundamentalists.

  42. Steve777:

    Friday, March 31, 2023 at 1:07 pm

    [‘It was said that it was the women’s vote that kept Menzies in power.’]

    Not forgetting the now moribund DLP.

  43. Isn’t the building industry’s main problem signing up to tons of fixed price contacts in advance (from competing too hard for customers with each other) that have turned awful due to inflation?
    As a lawyer, this reminds me of the reason most of the industry sticks with the billable hour. You know where you are with an hourly rate…..

    Right, so, in the industry there is no trust. I am a professional and people wont give me work without at least a narrow estimate. Builders and trades? Their clients just dont trust them to operate fairly on an hourly rate. And…. clients are not savvy enough to compare trades and builders without fixed fees. And…. clients are looking for a bargain and the only way they think they can do that is getting fixed fee prices from 3 or 4 people. And finally, banks want to see a fixed cost before they loan.

    But….. builders and trades I know pretty much operate on an hourly rate anyway. They will use variations to cover for cost blowouts either in their control or out of it. And they do this with regular progress invoices. If you dont pay up, they will walk. Builders and trades are rather bullish on their margins. That new boat and trip to whistler dont pay for themselves.

    Where this doesnt wash is commercial work. There are cost managers here that are tougher and meaner than builders and trades people.

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