James Massola of the Age/Herald reports that “expectations (are) growing that former Prime Minister Scott Morrison will quit politics”, probably between the May budget and the end of the year, entailing a by-election for his seat of Cook. Please let it be so, because a valley of death stretches before those of us in the election industry out to the second half of next year, to be followed by a flood encompassing the Northern Territory on August 24, the Australian Capital Territory on October 19, Queensland on October 26 and Western Australia on March 8 the following year (UPDATE: It’s noted that the Queensland local government elections next March, inclusive as they are of the unusually significant Brisbane City Council and lord mayoralty, should rate a mention). A normal federal election for the House of Representatives and half the Senate could happen in the second half of 2024 or the first of 2025, the alternative of a double dissolution being presumably unlikely.
Redistributions will offer some diversion in the interim, particularly after the Electoral Commissioner calculates how many House of Representatives seats each state is entitled to in the next parliament on June 27. This is likely to result in Western Australia gaining a seat and New South Wales and Victoria each losing one (respectively putting them at 16, 46 and 38), initiating redistribution processes that are likely to take around a year. There is also an outside chance that Queensland will gain a thirty-first seat. The Northern Territory will also have a redistribution on grounds of it having been seven years since one was last conducted, although this will involve either a minimal tweak to the boundary between Solomon and Lingiari or no change at all. At state level, a redistribution process was recently initiated in Western Australia and should conclude near the end of the year. The other state that conducts a redistribution every term, South Australia, gives its boundaries commission wide latitude on when it gets the ball rolling, but past experience suggests it’s likely to be near the end of the year.
However, the main electoral event of the foreseeable future is undoubtedly the Indigenous Voice referendum, which is likely to be held between October and December. Kevin Bonham has a post on polling for referendum in which he standardises the various results, which differ markedly in terms of their questions and response structures, and divines a fall in support from around 65% in the middle of last year to around 58% at present. For those of you with access to academic journals, there is also a paper by Murray Goot of Macquarie University in the Journal of Australian Studies entitled “Support in the Polls for an Indigenous Constitutional Voice: How Broad, How Strong, How Vulnerable?” In narrowing it down to credible polls with non-binary response options (i.e. those allowing for uncommitted responses of some kind, as distinct from forced response polls), Goot finds support has fallen from around 58% to 51% from the period of May to September to the period of October to January, while opposition had risen from 18% to 27%. The change was concentrated among Coalition supporters: whereas Labor and especially Greens supporters were consistently and strongly in favour, support among Coalition fell from around 45% to 36%.
Forced response questions consistently found between 60% and 65% in favour regardless of question wording, while non-binary polls (i.e. allowing for various kind of uncommitted response) have almost invariably had at over 50%. Goot notes that forced response polls have found respondents breaking between for and against in similar proportion to the rest, which “confounds the idea that, when push comes to shove, ‘undecided’ voters will necessarily vote no”. However, he also notes that questions in non-binary polls that have produced active majorities in favour have either mentioned an Indigenous Voice or the Uluru Statement from the Heart, or “rehearsed the Prime Minister’s proposal to amend the Constitution”. One that conspicuously did not do any of these things was a Dynata poll for the Institute of Public Affairs, which got a positive result of just 28% by priming respondents with a leading question and then emphasised that the proposal would involve “laws for every Australian”. JWS Research got only 43% in favour and 23% against, but its response structure was faulted by Goot for including a “need more information” option, which ruled the 20% who chose it out of contention one way or the other.
sprocket_ @ #1687 Friday, April 14th, 2023 – 6:47 pm
You reckon that’s big news. Try this:
https://www.washingtonpost.com/national-security/2023/04/14/leaked-documents-russian-spetsnaz/
This image is part of the leaked classified material that was circulated in a Discord chatroom and obtained by The Washington Post. The Post informed the Pentagon that this imagery would be published with this story. The document shows satellite images of the 22nd Separate Spetsnaz Brigade’s motor pool in southwestern Russia. The images were captured, from left to right, in November 2021 and November 2022, showing a depleted force following their return from Ukraine last summer. (Obtained by The Washington Post)
The way that Peter Dutton and his party are exploiting troubled communities, communities for which they did nothing during their nine years in office, to advance their political ends, is an absolute disgrace.
Arky @ #1677 Friday, April 14th, 2023 – 6:25 pm
Exactly. I have been watching the ridiculous assertions he has made all day and thought it was all quite irrational and specious.
Steve777 @ #1701 Friday, April 14th, 2023 – 7:19 pm
100%
Yet the Liberals, the LNP and the Nationals, will power on relentlessly with this vile behaviour all the way to the referendum without a care in the world for those they are vilifying.
C@T
“ The finding, which has not been previously reported, is among a cache of sensitive materials leaked online through the messaging platform Discord. U.S. officials attributed their assessments to Russian commanders’ overreliance on the specialized units who have been put to use as part of front-line infantry formations that, like the Ukrainians, have suffered massive numbers of dead and wounded.”
——————————————————-
Clearly Russia learned nothing from the allies mistakes in Afghanistan wherein Australia and the US made similar errors overusing special forces as standard infantry. A fundamental misunderstanding of the role of special forces and a terrible waste of a highly skilled force.
Of course the COALition’s actions are disgraceful. They don’t think that. They think it’s only considered disgraceful by the Left. And if what they do angers the Left, then that’s good.
sprocket_ @ Friday, April 14, 2023 at 6:47 pm:
“Enough Already, I’m hearing that the Wagner Group forces have been all but wiped out. They used to have 90km of the front assigned, and it is down to 5km today – in Bakhmut.
If nothing else, we will have a cleaner fight with the coming UKR offensive.”
=========================
Sprocket, it has been Wagner troops who have been responsible for these latest atrocities to have shocked us, but I note that the Bucha massacres were carried out by regular Russian forces, as was the Mariupol theatre bombing. We should also not forget the ‘banality of evil’ dripfeed of daily civilian deaths from missile strikes across Ukraine, which have done so much to numb most of us in the West to the horror Russia has turned Ukraine into.
I hope you’re right, but I am not very optimistic. 🙁
We live in a world in which Viktor Orbán is a leader within NATO, and President Volodymyr Zelenskyy is not:
“Orbán lamented that public opinion in Europe is not yet ready to force leaders to reconsider the sanctions policy towards Russia, but “that time will come”; he complained about allegedly more bad news from Ukraine regarding the situation of the Hungarian community, and also referred to the fact that Europe is forced to finance many of Ukraine’s needs.
“Ukraine is a non-existent country in the financial sense, it cannot finance itself. The question is whether we support Ukraine or not. As soon as we say no, the war will end,” Viktor Orbán said.
He emphasised that Europe provides funds for Ukrainian pensions, salaries, education and healthcare needs, without giving these funds to its own budgets, and this “cannot go on forever.”
Orbán’s words have already been noticed by Dmitry Medvedev, Deputy Secretary of the Russian Security Council.
“Well done, bold and accurate for a European politician. We can only add that as soon as Western funding ends, Ukraine itself will end,” Medvedev reacted.”
https://www.pravda.com.ua/eng/news/2023/04/14/7397849/
🙁
[#3 today]
On ChatGPT
The real problem with chatbot is it will produce the intellectual work … while totally undermine the human skill & knowledge on how to achieve the work.. ie it will destroy learning & human endeavour… & enslave society while doing it.
We might have been here before
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gdtZv3XROnc
Cronus @ #1704 Friday, April 14th, 2023 – 7:39 pm
I believe it all goes back to Russia’s initial plan to storm into Kyiv and take the country in a matter of weeks … with their best troops leading the way.
The best laid plans and all that.
Now it seems they are over-relying on them to make Russian advances of any kind.
The interesting thing to me is that Ukraine’s equivalent Special Forces haven’t been decimated as much and they are actually continuing to do the job they are trained for.
A very informative discussion of The Discord Papers here:
https://youtu.be/ljIj6kKqzdg
It appears the leaker of the documents, Jack Teixera, was more of an immature 21 year old than a young man of evil intent.
Sceptic : “totally undermine the human skill & knowledge on how to achieve the work..”
These arguments have existed for every technology advance. What it led to is people being better at the things technology doesn’t resolve.
Lawyers though. Like seriously. To be a lawyer you’ll need to learn a slightly different skill than being a walking talking textbook of a specific regional variation of legislation X and G. Which I have every expectation that the people who are good at that job will do. For the shit jobs it’s gonna be AI arguing against AI. Don’t you know it. The language guys are gonna get languaged. Who needs a farrier anyway?
I’ve heard about Doctor Politics, but Indigenous Politics is a thing too… and this before we get on to gerontocracy…
Flanked by Country Liberal Party Senator Jacinta Nampijinpa Price, Opposition Leader Peter Dutton put boots on the ground in Alice Springs this week to declare the town crime-ridden, unsafe and ripe for an immediate federal law-and-order response.
His comments stirred angry backlash, but Arrernte Traditional Owner and CEO of Lhere Artepe Graeme Smith points to Price, not Dutton, as the real problem for the town.
“I thought it was a disgusting effort by our so-called representative downplaying the beautiful town and Arrernte country of Alice Springs when she’s a Warlpiri lady herself,” Smith told Crikey.
“Don’t talk about another person’s country.”
Price told reporters at a press conference in Alice Springs that although locals love their community, they do not feel safe and that the town therefore qualifies as a “failed state”.
“Us locals are here for a reason. We love this community, we love the landscape, we love the people in our hometown,” the senator said before calling upon territory and federal government to “listen to the locals” and recognise “needs are not being met”.
Price, a former Alice Springs councillor and deputy mayor, is a Warlpiri/Celtic woman from Yuendumu country, about 290km northwest of Alice Springs. Smith says this gives her no right to be talking for or about the Arrernte people of Mparntwe, Alice Springs.
“She’s not Arrernte, she’s not from Alice Springs. She’s from Yuendumu. She’s a Warlpiri woman getting on TV discrediting the Arrernte country of Alice Springs. We do not like that,” he said, adding that this is why they want an Indigenous Voice to Parliament.
“We don’t want to be the Voice in Canberra, like Jacinta wants to be. We want a Voice in Canberra and they’re distinctly different things. Jacinta does not represent us.”
https://www.crikey.com.au/2023/04/14/jacinta-price-peter-dutton-alice-springs-locals/
Re Aston
That is assuming the seat still exists after the redistribution, in my mind it is one of three that could be abolished
If it survives it could have up to 40,000 different voters
Cat – Too many people get given Top Secret clearance and then get given access to too much. Why a 21yo part timer was given access to such a wealth of documents is beyond me.
It is as if because they give someone a clearance to some top secret documents, they allow access to everything. It is shear laziness on behalf of US military authorities that this allowed to happen.
But then there is this…
So he does understand the detail….
It strikes me that now Speakman has put his hand up for the NSW LOTO, Morrison’s not going anywhere for a while.
A new way to fight misinformation.
The Cranky Uncle app.
It works on the theory that once a person takes up a position based on misinformation facts will not change their mind. Instead the idea is that you can use critical thinking apps to inoculate someone through challenging them to find small pieces of misinformation, thereby winning the game and training their brain to use critical thinking techniques.
I’m not sure if it has any pieces of misinformation about higher education in Australia, but if someone plays the game let me know.
https://crankyuncle.com/
C@tmomma @ Friday, April 14, 2023 at 8:00 pm:
“A very informative discussion of The Discord Papers here:
https://youtu.be/ljIj6kKqzdg
It appears the leaker of the documents, Jack Teixera, was more of an immature 21 year old than a young man of evil intent.”
======================
C@tmomma, yes, this looks right. I wonder how the US will change its access protocols for sensitive intelligence going forward. A bit late for Ukraine, though. Maybe the US will get it right in time for the next country that gets invaded. 🙁
[#4 today]
Aston by-election – Remember it was a byelection, and ergo the turnover was lower than a normal election. 7000 less voters than in 2022 (About 6%). So the margins are not always comparable and that is why byelection results generally aren’t used in the pendulums.
That said, I think Labor will probably retain Aston in 2025 (or whenever we go back to the polls) as I think the Liberals will still be in the shambles that they are now. I think Deakin, Menzies and Casey will be a struggle for them to hold. Also Monash is a risk of falling if Broadbent retires (he is currently 72). Given that Wannon was threatened by Alex Dyson running as a teal that only leaves Flinders and Latrobe as somewhat safe.
Even then they got lucky in Flinders as the “Teal” was a dud (Section 44 issues) and it looks like “Kooyong by the Sea” in parts.
Ukrainians are continuing to lay the groundwork for a potential counteroffensive, by inflicting damage on Russian military capacity in and around Melitopol:
“A “powerful” explosion was heard in the Russian-occupied city of Melitopol in Zaporizhzhia Oblast on the morning of April 14, exiled Mayor Ivan Fedorov said on national television, cited by Ukrainska Pravda publication.
According to Fedorov, the explosion occurred in the area of the railway depot, where Russian troops have stored their equipment and ammunition.”
https://kyivindependent.com/melitopol-mayor-reports-explosion-near-concentration-of-russian-equipment/
Anyway, that’s it from me today.
Доброго вечора друзі!
Слава Україні! Героям слава!
I agree Sarah. FWIW, I think all levels of education should be free. If that was made easier, in any way, bonza. Based upon competency. All the way through the learning process.
Perhaps we should let ChatGPT be the judge.
In 2020 the North Sydney pool reconstruction received $10 million from Morrison’s regional rorts program (no matter that the pool is close to Sydney Harbour Bridge but that’s a mere formality!)
https://junkee.com/sydney-pool-regional-grant/244122
Now we learn that this “regional project” is having a spot of bother.
What infrastructure project of any Coalition government doesn’t blow out in time to completion and costs?
From the Oz:
Libs suffer a broken heartland: Newspoll
The nation’s mortgage-belt heartland has shifted its political allegiances to Labor, with the Albanese government now dominating critical electoral territory in what was once regarded as key Liberal areas.
Cant get past paywall if anyone can help?
steve davis @ #1725 Friday, April 14th, 2023 – 10:06 pm
The nation’s mortgage-belt heartland has shifted its political allegiances to Labor, with the Albanese government now dominating critical electoral territory in what was once regarded as the key constituency of the Liberal Party.
The Coalition is also facing a crisis of support among younger voters with 18 to 34-year-olds for the first time backing the Greens ahead of the Liberal-Nationals.
The danger signs for the Coalition across key demographics, following its defeat in the Aston by-election a fortnight ago, come as a state-by-state investigation into the Liberal Party’s state divisions by The Weekend Australian shows it in organisational decline across most state branches.
Read Next
Exclusive Newspoll analysis conducted for the Australian shows the Coalition support base narrowing further since the last election, with over 65-year-olds, retirees, higher-income households and Christian voters now the only demographic groups through which it still holds a lead over Labor.
https://www.theaustralian.com.au/nation/politics/liberals-suffer-broken-heartland-as-labor-marches-in-newspoll/news-story/99fbdd1fd7bb6af1ad79f37436daf23c
It’s quite a long piece, but I’ll get into trouble if I post more. 😉
Trouble in WA Greens:
https://twitter.com/mariansmedley/status/1646704787407396867?s=46&t=0v2L108EL69TlVmZBAlOaA
C@t
Thanks. Murdoch and Sky after Dark still doing its job for the Libs.
These are NewsPoll quarterly analysis
Look at that 50-50 in QLD. I thought Dutton was waning there and it looks like it.
The article also says that men don’t like him much. 😆
Dutton has been so successful as Liberal leader the Greens now have more support(24%) amongst 18 to 34 year olds than the Liberals 21%!
Busy day today. Quick skim of PB before turning in, and topics include costs of education and AI. My brain says, if ChatGPT can be a judge, why not have ChatGPT be a teacher? It seems to me that it’s a small step from finding answers to asking questions. Something to sleep on. Is it hard to ask the right questions?
Dutton doesn’t have much to play with, lacks charisma and is about as exciting as cold porridge. But as I have said before the talent pool in the Libs is more of a puddle and that puddle smells.
It would take a very special type of leader to excite the voters towards the Liberal Party in the current circumstances. Nobody is going to challenge until at least the end of the year.
I would actually say that Dutton made the right political called on the Voice (maybe not morally but politically). Sitting on the fence was getting them no where and although a free vote would have worked, it would probably excluded him from the public eye for months. By taking a stance they will be able to claim victory if “No” successes (and it doesn’t need a majority to do that) and it will look like a defeat for the government. If it gets up, whoever replaces Dutton can call a “Mea Clupa” and move on as the debate will then be moot.
It was a risky move, but at some stage his leadership was going to have take a risk.
The Australian article mentioned by C@t at 10.14pm also says this:
But it is among younger voters that the contrast is now at its most stark, with Labor leading 69-31 per cent on a two-party-preferred basis in a demographic that makes up more than a quarter of all voters.
The primary vote for the Liberal-Nationals among 18 to 34-year-olds has fallen three points over the past six months, with only 21 per cent now saying they supported the conservative Coalition parties.
The primary vote for the Greens among this group is at 24 per cent by comparison, marking the first time in Newspoll analysis that the minor left-wing party is ahead of the Coalition.
This has grown from 17 per cent since before the last election to remain steady at 24 per cent for the past year.
At the same time, Labor has increased its dominance among this group of voters since the election, with a primary vote of 43 per cent – more than double that of the Coalition.
43 per cent!
“It strikes me that now Speakman has put his hand up for the NSW LOTO, Morrison’s not going anywhere for a while.”
Scott Morrison could still be gone soon. I just think Mark Speakman has decided he can’t hold out any longer making a decision on the leadership. I have heard a time frame Morrison gone by the end of the year. So Morrison staying put is plausible.
I think Peter Dutton will have mixed feelings; because he would want a unpopular figure like Morrison out of parliament. But another by-election disaster like Aston could be the end of his leadership. So delaying it may give him more time to improve his polling numbers. Liberals are unlikely to lose the seat of Cook though.
It appears the leaker of the documents, Jack Teixera, was more of an immature 21 year old than a young man of evil intent.
————————
He is about to grow up quick.
”If it gets up, whoever replaces Dutton can call a “Mea [Culpa]” and move on as the debate will then be moot.”
And the mainstream megaphones will forgive him.
Swans did well tnite. I thought they were going to get over-run but they came good.
Pleased to finally see Dusty and Riewoldt (Cochin etc) play live. Gather around is a tops idea. They should give it to some more country towns.
Bs fairman, you are too kind to Dutton.
His Voice stance is not some kind of 4 dimensional chess.
He is just a rather dull witted QLD copper.
If the libs had any talent at all, he’d be a backbencher. They don’t. He isn’t.
Things are going to get worse, before they get worse, for that ugly baby.
There is a reason the coalition is coming third after Labor and the Greens in the under 40s.
The way that Peter Dutton and his party are exploiting troubled communities, communities for which they did nothing during their nine years in office, to advance their political ends, is an absolute disgrace.
————–
It is, and it’s so pathetically transparent as well. I think that Dutton’s stance on the voice is likely to only convince more people to vote for it, and as others have mentioned it’s hard to see how he comes out of this regardless of the outcome without looking more unelectable than before.
The Whitlam government made two life changing reforms when elected in 1972. The first was the establishment of Medibank. The second was the abolition of university fees. My father was a builder’s labourer who supported my mum and three children. There was no way known that we could have attended university as things stood before 1972. However, Whitlam was elected, fees went and both my elder brother and I attended university. The University of Melbourne in the case of my brother and Monash myself. This was truly a transformative decision. The sort that Labor governments are meant to all be about. Then of course we had Dawkins, neo liberalism and the HECS scheme. Very sad!
PS. My younger brother also attended university under HECS. He graduated about 25 years ago and still hasn’t paid back his loan.
The Liberals Party have an unfortunate problem.
Peter Dutton is a dim-witted unfortunate character, having been elected to head the Federal parliamentary Liberal Party after the last election at which time the previous leader Scott Morrison was exposed as an unfortunate character with a penchant for not exactly telling the truth, is travelling in the wrong direction.
Before that Malcolm Turnbull was the leader, wearing an inappropriate suit while travelling in the wrong bus.
And again prior to that unfortunate experiment, Tony Abbott, with an unfortunate opinion of himself and his own intellect was cast as leader.
The pattern had been unfortunately set by the devious little prick, having stayed too long as the Liberal PM, and having now been anointed by the Liberals as an unfortunate benchmark was the architect of this Liberal problem.
Is the Liberal Party going to address their unfortunate problem before the liquidators move in.
The polls suggest that the unfortunate problem has very little residual value!
New thread.
C@tmomma says:
Friday, April 14, 2023 at 9:52 pm
What infrastructure project of any Coalition government doesn’t blow out in time to completion and costs?
………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………….
98.6 says :
While that may be true for the Coalition, state Labor have had problems too, eg Brisbane’s Cross River Rail Project, fully funded by the QLD Labor Government, will now cost just under a billion more and take an extra 6 to 12 months to complete. So now closer to $6.5 billion.
However that pales into insignificance when you look at Inland Rail, doubling from $15 billion to $32 billion and it now looks like it won’t be finished till 2032 at the earliest.
If only they could work out were to start and finish it.
The last 16klms to the Port of Brisbane is up in the air as to a tunnel from Acacia Ridge, which is estimated to cost $8 billion more or bypass Brisbane altogether and go on to the Port of Gladstone, which will cost $10 billion more and take an extra 5 years to finalise.
What a f**k up !
And I haven’t even started on Turnbull’s Snowy Hydro II which has doubled in cost and time.
On the other hand these things don’t worry me one bit.
I learnt a valuable lesson in the 60s when they said they were going to build the Sydney Opera House at a cost of $7 million and have it built in 4 years but we all know that it eventually cost $102 million and took 14 years to build.
So every time I read or hear about cost overruns, I say to myself, compared to the Opera House who gives a s**t.
IF YOU BUILD IT, THEY WILL COME ! Eventually !
The reason for nuclear subs with Chinese sub titles.
https://www.youtube.com/shorts/v5NvK5be-qc
does conroy still have influence desbite not being in parliament think he switched to albanese when conroy retired abruptly only informing albanese not shortin then somyurek took over conroys national egzecutive spot with shortins backing nsw senater deborah oniel is also part of shoppies whichare doing a great job taking on mcdonalds over wage feft