James Massola of the Age/Herald reports that “expectations (are) growing that former Prime Minister Scott Morrison will quit politics”, probably between the May budget and the end of the year, entailing a by-election for his seat of Cook. Please let it be so, because a valley of death stretches before those of us in the election industry out to the second half of next year, to be followed by a flood encompassing the Northern Territory on August 24, the Australian Capital Territory on October 19, Queensland on October 26 and Western Australia on March 8 the following year (UPDATE: It’s noted that the Queensland local government elections next March, inclusive as they are of the unusually significant Brisbane City Council and lord mayoralty, should rate a mention). A normal federal election for the House of Representatives and half the Senate could happen in the second half of 2024 or the first of 2025, the alternative of a double dissolution being presumably unlikely.
Redistributions will offer some diversion in the interim, particularly after the Electoral Commissioner calculates how many House of Representatives seats each state is entitled to in the next parliament on June 27. This is likely to result in Western Australia gaining a seat and New South Wales and Victoria each losing one (respectively putting them at 16, 46 and 38), initiating redistribution processes that are likely to take around a year. There is also an outside chance that Queensland will gain a thirty-first seat. The Northern Territory will also have a redistribution on grounds of it having been seven years since one was last conducted, although this will involve either a minimal tweak to the boundary between Solomon and Lingiari or no change at all. At state level, a redistribution process was recently initiated in Western Australia and should conclude near the end of the year. The other state that conducts a redistribution every term, South Australia, gives its boundaries commission wide latitude on when it gets the ball rolling, but past experience suggests it’s likely to be near the end of the year.
However, the main electoral event of the foreseeable future is undoubtedly the Indigenous Voice referendum, which is likely to be held between October and December. Kevin Bonham has a post on polling for referendum in which he standardises the various results, which differ markedly in terms of their questions and response structures, and divines a fall in support from around 65% in the middle of last year to around 58% at present. For those of you with access to academic journals, there is also a paper by Murray Goot of Macquarie University in the Journal of Australian Studies entitled “Support in the Polls for an Indigenous Constitutional Voice: How Broad, How Strong, How Vulnerable?” In narrowing it down to credible polls with non-binary response options (i.e. those allowing for uncommitted responses of some kind, as distinct from forced response polls), Goot finds support has fallen from around 58% to 51% from the period of May to September to the period of October to January, while opposition had risen from 18% to 27%. The change was concentrated among Coalition supporters: whereas Labor and especially Greens supporters were consistently and strongly in favour, support among Coalition fell from around 45% to 36%.
Forced response questions consistently found between 60% and 65% in favour regardless of question wording, while non-binary polls (i.e. allowing for various kind of uncommitted response) have almost invariably had at over 50%. Goot notes that forced response polls have found respondents breaking between for and against in similar proportion to the rest, which “confounds the idea that, when push comes to shove, ‘undecided’ voters will necessarily vote no”. However, he also notes that questions in non-binary polls that have produced active majorities in favour have either mentioned an Indigenous Voice or the Uluru Statement from the Heart, or “rehearsed the Prime Minister’s proposal to amend the Constitution”. One that conspicuously did not do any of these things was a Dynata poll for the Institute of Public Affairs, which got a positive result of just 28% by priming respondents with a leading question and then emphasised that the proposal would involve “laws for every Australian”. JWS Research got only 43% in favour and 23% against, but its response structure was faulted by Goot for including a “need more information” option, which ruled the 20% who chose it out of contention one way or the other.
”A lot of the Housing Commission houses were made of asbestos sheeting for external, internal walls, eaves, floors, rooves etc”
A significant fraction of the hones built in Sydney’s West post WW2 were fibro, not just the Housing Commission ones, although it was more widely used for them.
The Western Australian government has successfully sprinkled Housing Commission residences and Rent to Buy housing among private properties. It is usually done as new areas are developed and so no one is any the wiser as to who are the inhabitants of government rental properties and who isn’t as they are all built along similar lines in areas developed for Affordable Housing and everyone moves in together. I don’t know if they are still doing it under the auspices of the McGowan government but they did it when I lived in Perth and it seemed to be a successful model for social integration and anti-ghettoisation.
Modular housing pretty big in WA from what I’ve seen in the Pilbara and rural towns.
My brother in law lived in Newman in the 1970s in a house that wouldn’t have looked out of place in suburban Perth.
Three bedrooms, brick and tile.
They don’t do it like that any more.
If you can’t get a brickie in Perth how do you think you’ll get one in Merredin?
Are brickies still a thing?
nath says:
Wednesday, April 12, 2023 at 8:53 am
Lars Von Trier says:
Wednesday, April 12, 2023 at 8:45 am
So we are having something like 300,000-400,000 people immigrate to this country annually as well as natural population growth.
Normal residential construction (which has collapsed ) is about 200,000
______________
It’s not going to be a pretty picture. Perhaps they will set up tent cities for those who can’t find a place to rent.
—————————————————
It certainly won’t be pretty. I suspect a lot more high rise buildings closer to city services that risk ghettoing is a likely solution along with quick-build single story alternatives in outer suburban areas that also risk ghettoing. Quite the housing bind we’ve gotten ourselves into.
Oh. They are. Some interesting stats here…
https://labourmarketinsights.gov.au/occupation-profile/bricklayers-and-stonemasons?occupationCode=3311
Lars Von Trier @ #99 Wednesday, April 12th, 2023 – 10:33 am
Silly L’Arse. Thinks that buying a Mercedes Benz will increase his feeling of self worth, when nothing will ever do so for a person who actually believes that such things matter. The real world is not as nasty or self absorbed as the L’Arses of the world think. Vide Aston.
And the vast majority don’t have L’arses so big that they think that easily the biggest selling frameless shower recesses in Australia are too small.
Here’s a picture of a horrible factory built home being delivered to an ignorant fool at Copacabana (near C@t). Nimby L’Arse should get around there to protest, quick smart.
Plenty of migrants (including some of my rellies) lived in sheds, garages, tents and Nissan huts in the late forties, fifties and sixties.
It was character building.
Ven says:
Wednesday, April 12, 2023 at 10:15 am
I challenge you Leftie to ask any Labor supporter (other than Upnorth) on PB whether they support Blackie’s behaviour in public.
I hate Nats because this kind of behaviour.
中华人民共和国
Huh? How did I get drawn into this? I don’t even know this “Blackie” character.
I only pick fights to Tories and the odd Green.
Geez Louise – I go out to find the Grilled Rat vendor has gone home for 7 days for the Songkran holidays, come home witn some odd smelling Somtum and now I’m mates with some bloke called “Blackie”.
We Queensland ALP Members are far more genteel with each other. Oh don’t for a minute think we haven’t got factions, and dealings are tough, but 32 years of Tory rule and Bjelke Joh taught us to fight the real enemy.
Arky @ #644 Wednesday, April 12th, 2023 – 10:48 am
Apparently Ukraine and the NATO countries aren’t that worried about the leak, except to find the leaker, as the information has changed a lot since. Or should I say, there are only various small sub sections of the data that have been leaked that concern them.
”
Griffsays:
Wednesday, April 12, 2023 at 10:09 am
Ven @ Wednesday, April 12, 2023 at 10:04 am
“All this Hyperbole by usual MSM opinion writers about Leeser is just that. Nothing more.
Was it Aaron Newton or Sprocket, who said Leeser was Abbott staffer?
I have nothing more to say about a person who is a staffer to Abbott, Dutton or Morrison. They made a pact with the….
When you sleep with dogs you end with fleas.”
The story isn’t about Leeser. It is about division in the Liberal Party, to the point where there is a front bench resignation. The Shadow Indigenous Affairs Minister and Attorney-General no less. After the prior Minister of Indigenous Affairs quits the Liberal Party itself.
Facts, not hyperbole.
”
My point is that media portraying Leeser as a principled and decent guy when he worked for Tony Abbott.
Lars Von Trier says:
No doubt Yabba would expect to wander in and out of the granny flat at will given it’s his property.
________
Even more alarmingly for the tenant of the granny flat they will never know when yabba is likely to whip out his flute.
This morning’s discussion about housing reminds me of the closing chapter of a speculative fiction novel by one of my daughters in law. It is set in Canberra and is her second effort in the genre. Her proposal for a future city based on her home town echos some of the discussion here.
Anyway, I recommend it to you.
https://www.kobo.com/au/en/ebook/traces-of-june
Speaking of the Ukraine war, I found this explanatory video of the drone warfare items being sent to Ukraine very informative:
https://straightarrownews.com/cc/how-makers-of-the-switchblade-suicide-drone-are-changing-the-ukraine-war/
nath says:
Wednesday, April 12, 2023 at 10:59 am
Lars Von Trier says:
No doubt Yabba would expect to wander in and out of the granny flat at will given it’s his property.
________
Even more alarmingly for the tenant of the granny flat they will never know when yabba is likely to whip out his flute.
中华人民共和国
I thought Mr Yabba had a recorder.
Boerwar @ #648 Wednesday, April 12th, 2023 – 10:52 am
My Aunt lived in one of the fibro houses out in Liverpool (Ashcroft) built in the late 60s. She was there for about 55 years and raised 4 kids before she passed recently. I’m guessing it was asbestos inside and out. She made it to her early 80s.
I just checked on google maps, there hasn’t been an update of the street view since 2020. But I expect it’ll get pulled down at some point.
Here’s a place that looks fairly similar
Rex Douglas says:
Wednesday, April 12, 2023 at 9:12 am
Predictably, it seems the political point scoring over the Voice is triggering an increase in social media attacks on AFL indigenous players. Watching Tony Armstrong report the attacks with a look of despair and exhaustion is heartbreaking.
—————————————————————————
Interestingly, the threat of Indigenous peoples having even the smallest say is a threat to a certain portion of our population. The Voice by its nature exposes racism and even the hidden undertones because racists can’t help but reveal themselves.
In the end however, this racism is manifest mostly on one side of politics and those who support the No vote. I suspect this will likely count against the No vote as the referendum approaches as many of our younger generations don’t relate to racism.
ven if you think blackie is a degenerate then no doubt you would be no fun to have a drinking session with. Are you more of a $60 a bottle non-alcoholic gin type ?.
Re Mostly Interested @11:04. Looks like about half the homes in the neighbourhood where I grew up.
Whatever the outcome from the social housing imbroglio the missing piece is quality of design.
Current mass building design has me in despair – black roofs, no eaves, relentless lack of solar positioning, huge car holes oriented north etc. etc.
We have just gone backwards – where is the leadership on the 21st century Small Homes Service? For those who missed it, here is a (depressing) summary of a practical public good that now seems like utopian.
https://architectureau.com/articles/what-would-boyd-do/
‘Mostly Interested says:
Wednesday, April 12, 2023 at 11:04 am
Boerwar @ #648 Wednesday, April 12th, 2023 – 10:52 am
‘shellbell says:
Wednesday, April 12, 2023 at 10:45 am
A lot of the Housing Commission houses were made of asbestos sheeting for external, internal walls, eaves, floors, rooves etc’
—————————–
If something is worth doing it is worth doing properly…
My Aunt lived in one of the fibro houses out in Liverpool (Ashcroft) built in the late 60s. She was there for about 55 years and raised 4 kids before she passed recently. I’m guessing it was asbestos inside and out. She made it to her early 80s.
I just checked on google maps, there hasn’t been an update of the street view since 2020. But I expect it’ll get pulled down at some point.
Here’s a place that looks fairly similar’
————————————-
Yeah. One of the places we lived in for a while had a fair bit of asbestos inside and out – a lot of it home built and, presumably, fairly free of the council’s knowledge or wishes at the time.
That’s the whole point Cronus. That the Coalition are actively opposing the Voice (and taking the side of One Nation) is sure to propagate a wave of racism in the run-up to the referendum. Even though for now they don’t look electorally viable, this inevitable development will be incredibly sad to watch.
“Blackie” is still on the Broken Hill Council. He turns 80 this year: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Peter_Black_(Australian_politician)
Upnorth @ #664 Wednesday, April 12th, 2023 – 11:04 am
Eight of them, actually, of multiple sizes, plus two clarinets and an alto sax. Not counting the piano and the Roland synthesiser. And my voice.
Younger daughter also has a synth drum kit, and a couple of guitars, plus her two clarinets, plus her voice, which is much better than mine.
I’m wondering if the re-emergence of racial vilification occurring in the AFL atm is an offshoot of Spud’s dog-whistling Voice stance.
We arrived in this country (us white fellas ), pushed aside the original inhabitants in an aggressive / passive attempt at genocide, resulting in geographic and sociology-economic marginalisation. We then told the victims what was best for them and used the problems this created amongst the victims as evidence of their second rate status as humans and the need for white paternalism.
Dutton uses this as the underlying theme for his No stance and deserves to die in a political ditch for it.
Pity any Liberal member going back to their electorate to defend him.
Boerwar 9:44am
“ The Chicommies will sell it as a success. Australia has been taught an economic lesson. The major lesson for Australia is that the fulcrum for the future is the price of iron ore.
Once China sets the export price, which it will do when it sorts out its African supply lines, Australia will learn a fundamental lesson in realpolitik: a military hegemon cannot protect a satellite from an economic hegemon. And THAT is why the AUKUS buy does not make strategic sense.”
———————————————————————————
China has failed for many years to establish African Iron Ore supply lines and I seriously question whether they ever will. It’s Africa, a constant nightmare and impossible to control.
leftieBrawler says:
Wednesday, April 12, 2023 at 11:09 am
ven if you think blackie is a degenerate then no doubt you would be no fun to have a drinking session with. Are you more of a $60 a bottle non-alcoholic gin type ?.
中华人民共和国
I must admit I have missed this whole “Blackie” saga – thus my surprise when Ven drew me into it this morning. Maybe it’s my preference for “Sugar Cane Champagne” or the odd bottle of Amarone or even a cold Beer Lao on a hot day. Anyways no harm caused on my behalf.
As my old man says “If your having a dig at me your leaving some other poor bugger alone”.
BKsays:
Wednesday, April 12, 2023 at 8:45 am
If ever there was a case for serious mass production of homes requiring minimal assembly and finishing it is now.
Nissan huts BK
beautiful!!
‘Cronus says:
Wednesday, April 12, 2023 at 11:15 am
Boerwar 9:44am
“ The Chicommies will sell it as a success. Australia has been taught an economic lesson. The major lesson for Australia is that the fulcrum for the future is the price of iron ore.
Once China sets the export price, which it will do when it sorts out its African supply lines, Australia will learn a fundamental lesson in realpolitik: a military hegemon cannot protect a satellite from an economic hegemon. And THAT is why the AUKUS buy does not make strategic sense.”
———————————————————————————
China has failed for many years to establish African Iron Ore supply lines and I seriously question whether they ever will. It’s Africa, a constant nightmare and impossible to control.’
=================================================
I am willing to bet that the million plus Chinese citizens in Africa will get the job done.
Mass produced pre-fab homes have advantages but in every other way, all the same infrastructure developments (roads, power, shops, schools etc) are still required. It is a less expensive option for individual families initially but not entirely inexpensive more broadly.
Up north don’t worry about Ven- he’s gone all Harry-high pants/ Harold from neighbours on us.
I just mentioned previously my admiration for blackie that I got to know during my time a couple of decades ago at the UNE young Labor club.
Dad was probably a family outlier, if I recall his Burma Railroad housing allocation correctly.
We lived in the old silver bullets in the Territory for years.
They were entertaining in their own right.
Boerwar @ #670 Wednesday, April 12th, 2023 – 11:12 am
Asbestos cement (Fibro) sheeting was only banned in 1988 in NSW. Provided that you don’t saw it or smash it up it is completely harmless. There are many thousands of fibro houses on the NSW Central Coast, many built as holiday houses between the 50’s and 80’s, pre expressway.
There are two opposite our place, and five more in the street of 24 homes. We bought one in 2002, as a holiday home, then demolished it (perfectly safely, with lots of Bondcrete) in 2007 to build the post and beam / timbercrete structure I showed a little bit of the other day, which is now the ‘main’ residence.
leftieBrawler @ #666 Wednesday, April 12th, 2023 – 11:09 am
Gordons 0% Alcohol Gin selling for $30 in Coles this week.
P1- don’t get all assumptive and start writing cheques you and your tesla may not be able to cash
leftieBrawler says:
Wednesday, April 12, 2023 at 11:23 am
Up north don’t worry about Ven- he’s gone all Harry-high pants/ Harold from neighbours on us.
I just mentioned previously my admiration for blackie that I got to know during my time a couple of decades ago at the UNE young Labor club.
中华人民共和国
All good cobber. I’m heading to the beach now. 5 day holiday up here for Thai New Year. Happy Songkran everybody.
[pendant] It’s Nissen not Nissan [/pedant]
as you were.
Ven @ #636 Wednesday, April 12th, 2023 – 10:41 am
Because climate, and climate-change. Unless they’re air-conditioned tents.
And what is this “cold night” you speak of? Pretty sure that’s not a thing.
Asbestos sheeting was the building material of choice for budget housing in the 50s.
In the 60s my father did up the kitchen in our house using a James Hardie asbestos product Tilix, designed for kitchen and wet areas.
Still in use till the 80s as far as I can tell.
No masks, no warnings back then.
Later in the 60s he put a ceiling in an extension using asbestos sheeting.
And then built asbestos panel fences.
No masks, no warnings.
When i see the rules today relating to removal of asbestos and demolition of asbestos buildings I often wonder about the one asbestos fence I built 40 years ago.
Compare the pair:
Yabba :
2000 old bomb car
6000 fuel cost annual
1000 rego and green slip annual
1000 insurance annual
X? Service costs annually to keep the bomb on the road
Environmental vandal spewing crap into the air.
Lars:
EQA250 MERC (new)
12,000 annual lease cost incl
Service
Rego
Insurance
Environmentally responsible
Who would you rather be ?
ratsak
Thenks.
One tragedy in Melbourne, and I assume elsewhere, is the demolition of wonderful cream brick houses built in the 50s and 60s and their replacement with modern atrocities like faux French chateaus.
These look to be pretty good humpies.
https://blog.miragestudio7.com/factory-built-mass-produced-prefab-houses-fold-place/5379/
MelbourneMammoth says:
Wednesday, April 12, 2023 at 11:12 am
That’s the whole point Cronus. That the Coalition are actively opposing the Voice (and taking the side of One Nation) is sure to propagate a wave of racism in the run-up to the referendum. Even though for now they don’t look electorally viable, this inevitable development will be incredibly sad to watch.
————————————————————————
It will indeed be sad. Perhaps the Coalition were relying on this scab being ripped off as their hope for Labor not pursuing The Voice?
Boerwar says:
Wednesday, April 12, 2023 at 11:21 am
‘Cronus says:
Wednesday, April 12, 2023 at 11:15 am
Boerwar 9:44am
“ The Chicommies will sell it as a success. Australia has been taught an economic lesson. The major lesson for Australia is that the fulcrum for the future is the price of iron ore.
Once China sets the export price, which it will do when it sorts out its African supply lines, Australia will learn a fundamental lesson in realpolitik: a military hegemon cannot protect a satellite from an economic hegemon. And THAT is why the AUKUS buy does not make strategic sense.”
———————————————————————————
China has failed for many years to establish African Iron Ore supply lines and I seriously question whether they ever will. It’s Africa, a constant nightmare and impossible to control.’
=================================================
I am willing to bet that the million plus Chinese citizens in Africa will get the job done.
——————————————
I’m not sure the issue is numbers (otherwise they’d have succeeded by now) but rather the inherent instability of these uncontrollable nations. It’s so much easier to deal with an established, stable and reliable supplier of quality ore like Australia, even if prices are higher) with direct sea supply lines than high risk nations.
What’s your poison c@t?
Lars 12km allowance since a a bit on the stiff side for such a pricey lease? I’d want at least 15-20 p/a
ratsaksays:
Wednesday, April 12, 2023 at 11:28 am
[pendant] It’s Nissen not Nissan [/pedant]
as you were.
ya yuppie!
(thanks)
Cronus @ #679 Wednesday, April 12th, 2023 – 11:23 am
“Combined analysis by CoreLogic and Archistar identified 583,440 properties in Australia’s three biggest cities that meet the criteria for an additional self-contained unit of at least 60 sqm.”
These potential homes have no requirement at all for additional sewerage mains, power supply, NBN, roadways or footpaths, and the shops and schools are already there. What are needed are well thought out incentives to encourage and realise a slam dunk major social benefit at minimal cost. Not like Jobkeeper, or the first home owner’s grants. Keep the super-greedy middle man rent seekers nasty fingers out of it!
But L’arse wouldn’t want one next door, and that’s a very significant drawback. After all, can you just imagine what living next to a L’arse would be like? His Mercedes would block out the sunlight, and keep you awake at night.
It’s 12k net – due to the governments ev policy.
C@tmomma:
The ACT government has for a long time done something similar. They’ll buy a sprinkling of properties in new developments for government housing and still own a bunch of properties all through the older inner suburbs.