James Massola of the Age/Herald reports that “expectations (are) growing that former Prime Minister Scott Morrison will quit politics”, probably between the May budget and the end of the year, entailing a by-election for his seat of Cook. Please let it be so, because a valley of death stretches before those of us in the election industry out to the second half of next year, to be followed by a flood encompassing the Northern Territory on August 24, the Australian Capital Territory on October 19, Queensland on October 26 and Western Australia on March 8 the following year (UPDATE: It’s noted that the Queensland local government elections next March, inclusive as they are of the unusually significant Brisbane City Council and lord mayoralty, should rate a mention). A normal federal election for the House of Representatives and half the Senate could happen in the second half of 2024 or the first of 2025, the alternative of a double dissolution being presumably unlikely.
Redistributions will offer some diversion in the interim, particularly after the Electoral Commissioner calculates how many House of Representatives seats each state is entitled to in the next parliament on June 27. This is likely to result in Western Australia gaining a seat and New South Wales and Victoria each losing one (respectively putting them at 16, 46 and 38), initiating redistribution processes that are likely to take around a year. There is also an outside chance that Queensland will gain a thirty-first seat. The Northern Territory will also have a redistribution on grounds of it having been seven years since one was last conducted, although this will involve either a minimal tweak to the boundary between Solomon and Lingiari or no change at all. At state level, a redistribution process was recently initiated in Western Australia and should conclude near the end of the year. The other state that conducts a redistribution every term, South Australia, gives its boundaries commission wide latitude on when it gets the ball rolling, but past experience suggests it’s likely to be near the end of the year.
However, the main electoral event of the foreseeable future is undoubtedly the Indigenous Voice referendum, which is likely to be held between October and December. Kevin Bonham has a post on polling for referendum in which he standardises the various results, which differ markedly in terms of their questions and response structures, and divines a fall in support from around 65% in the middle of last year to around 58% at present. For those of you with access to academic journals, there is also a paper by Murray Goot of Macquarie University in the Journal of Australian Studies entitled “Support in the Polls for an Indigenous Constitutional Voice: How Broad, How Strong, How Vulnerable?” In narrowing it down to credible polls with non-binary response options (i.e. those allowing for uncommitted responses of some kind, as distinct from forced response polls), Goot finds support has fallen from around 58% to 51% from the period of May to September to the period of October to January, while opposition had risen from 18% to 27%. The change was concentrated among Coalition supporters: whereas Labor and especially Greens supporters were consistently and strongly in favour, support among Coalition fell from around 45% to 36%.
Forced response questions consistently found between 60% and 65% in favour regardless of question wording, while non-binary polls (i.e. allowing for various kind of uncommitted response) have almost invariably had at over 50%. Goot notes that forced response polls have found respondents breaking between for and against in similar proportion to the rest, which “confounds the idea that, when push comes to shove, ‘undecided’ voters will necessarily vote no”. However, he also notes that questions in non-binary polls that have produced active majorities in favour have either mentioned an Indigenous Voice or the Uluru Statement from the Heart, or “rehearsed the Prime Minister’s proposal to amend the Constitution”. One that conspicuously did not do any of these things was a Dynata poll for the Institute of Public Affairs, which got a positive result of just 28% by priming respondents with a leading question and then emphasised that the proposal would involve “laws for every Australian”. JWS Research got only 43% in favour and 23% against, but its response structure was faulted by Goot for including a “need more information” option, which ruled the 20% who chose it out of contention one way or the other.
Pi says:
Wednesday, April 12, 2023 at 1:27 pm
yabba: “In NSW 75% from coal, with 20% transmission losses.”
That’s a load of crap.
If you don’t have a point to make without making shit up, you don’t have a point.
_______________
Well this really puts yabbas claims about mass producing granny flats in considerable doubt.
Cronus @ #714 Wednesday, April 12th, 2023 – 12:12 pm
They are existing occupied home sites that could comfortably accommodate an additional dwelling. If you subscribe to Archistar, you can obtain detailed information. It relates to Sydney, Melbourne and Brisbane.
Just looked this Peter Black character up and apparently he is now an independent councilor in Broken Hill. Not much of a Labor man to be running as an independent if you ask me. There are also suggestions that he is a drunk.
Boerwar @ #750 Wednesday, April 12th, 2023 – 1:48 pm
You mean this text?
Seems ok to me. What’s your problem with it?
nath: “Well this really puts yabbas claims ”
If there was a problem with those claims I didn’t see it. If I had seen something worthy of pointing out, I would have. What’s more likely is that what you’ve stated is just a tu quoque fallacy.
Pi @ #742 Wednesday, April 12th, 2023 – 1:27 pm
The transmission losses simply increase the amount of power that the power stations need to produce. Its necessary input to the calculation of CO2 emitted by the power stations. The equivalent to the fuel used in diesel delivery would be a large proportion of the energy consumption involved in removing overburden, mining coal, washing it, and transporting itto the power station.
Pi says:
Wednesday, April 12, 2023 at 2:03 pm
nath: “Well this really puts yabbas claims ”
If there was a problem with those claims I didn’t see it. If I had seen something worthy of pointing out, I would have.
______
Oh well fair enough then. Clearly you are the smartest person here, more so than yabba as you have demonstrated. So I defer to your obvious mental superiority over us here. Apologies Great One.
I would have thought it’s Boer who is the candidate for tu quoque fallacy criticism.
Poor Yabba is just out of touch.
The values of our modern world come from all over the place. The Christian West actually suppressed many of these values…..some rough examples.
LGBTQI RIghts- LGBTQI people were free to live how they wanted in many societies, even reverred, until the Christians arrived.
Meritocracy- China had open bureaucratic exams based on talent for 2 Millenia- while much of Europe was still Feudal till early 20th Century.
Free Trade- Places like Molucca and Makassar had open free ports for centuries, till the Europeans took over trade and instigated tariffs and controls.
Religious Tolerance- this one is self explanatory.
So our modern world is not some grand European Christian experiment but hopefully a blend of the best.
Leftiebrawler
Yeah you’re right, my issue is with your mentor but you can take the boy out of Broken Hill but not Broken Hill out of the boy and that’s how I read your comment.
“He taught us how to drink and more importantly how to deal with your pathetic layer of swill at the top of the Sussex street trifle.”
Lars Von Trier says:
Wednesday, April 12, 2023 at 2:07 pm
I would have thought it’s Boer who is the candidate for tu quoque fallacy criticism.
Poor Yabba is just out of touch.
__________________
The battle for the greatest mind on PB is clearly between Yabba, Pi and BW. It’s hard to say who’s in front overall. I guess everyone will have their opinion on which one is superior.
Yabba
“ They are existing occupied home sites that could comfortably accommodate an additional dwelling. If you subscribe to Archistar, you can obtain detailed information. It relates to Sydney, Melbourne and Brisbane.”
——————
Thanks, I’ll check it out.
Anyone know why Albo isn’t going to the NATO summit?
I hope he’s not worried about ERC and that bullshit. Money is just a construct (AUKUS much!).
Socrates: “The other really critical point on EV emissions is that in the real world most (80+% in RACV survey) recharge their EV from their roof top solar panels.”
From that link, written in 2019, I suspect that number will have somewhat reduced given just the sheer number of EV’s that have now been deployed. But on the flip side, the Vic grid that was referred to as the most emissions intensive because of brown coal, now sources 70% more of its energy from renewables (~37% vs 22%) than it did in 2019.
In just about every measure worth recording, EV’s are better for the environment than ICE cars. By a wide marging getting wider.
nath: “you are the smartest person here”
It’s called “basing your opinion on evidence”. You might reduce these feelings of inadequacy you have if you give it a go. Not the way you roll though from what I’ve seen.
Lars Von Trier seems be excited today for some reason
The level of risk in Australia’s housing market is the second-highest in the developed world, the International Monetary Fund has warned.
Using a range of risk indicators, the IMF says Australian households with mortgages are at greater risk of defaulting on mortgage repayments due to higher levels of household debt, rising interest rates contributing to higher mortgage rates, and elevated house prices.
The IMF also warns that economies with higher house prices and household debt are “particularly vulnerable” to any stresses in the financial sector, although it notes that banks are better capitalised than they were during the global financial crisis.
However, the IMF’s warning comes as some economists say the recent significant declines in Australia’s property prices may have ended and the local housing market could rebound from here.
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2023-04-12/imf-global-economic-outlook-downturn-australia-housing-market/102211826
I dont know who has the smartest brain on PB but the smartest arse probably belongs to nath.
He certainly has the numbest nuts.
Pi @ #762 Wednesday, April 12th, 2023 – 2:15 pm
I think that suspicion is unwarranted. If you’ve got $50k+ to spend on an EV, spending $5k on rooftop solar so that you can charge it efficiently is a no-brainer.
NSW doesn’t source 75% of it’s energy from coal anymore.
Over the last 12 months, NSW coal-fired generation was 61% of its consumption.
Also AEMO quotes “approximately 10%” for the losses in transmission and distribution on the NEM.
The Nine newspapers say the Opposition want Albanese to attend the NATO summit.
I bet if he had said he was going they would accuse him of just wanting a summer holiday in Europe.
As shallow as a saucer.
Looks like the court of PB opinion has come in Yabba and found you wanting in your ev misrepresentations.
Do the decent thing for once – admit you are in error and let’s all move on.
Note: I was comparing the continued use of a 13 year old vehicle, of extremely high fuel efficiency, with the production and purchase of a new vehicle, which involves in its embedded emissions four years worth of its emission savings, if fully solar powered, before it breaks even.
Modern 2 litre turbo diesels have a thermal efficiency about 10% greater than efficient, modern coal fired Rankine cycle power stations. Ours are not efficient and modern. The Victorian ones are appalling, the NSW ones slightly less so.
Lars Von Trier @ Wednesday, April 12, 2023 at 2:35 pm
“Looks like the court of PB opinion has come in Yabba and found you wanting in your ev misrepresentations.
Do the decent thing for once – admit you are in error and let’s all move on.”
LOL! Thank you for your work as the court jester 🙂
Lol agree griff. It’ll be a cold day in hell before Yabba admits error .
south @ Wednesday, April 12, 2023 at 2:21 pm
“Anyone know why Albo isn’t going to the NATO summit?
I hope he’s not worried about ERC and that bullshit. Money is just a construct (AUKUS much!).”
It is the latest attack line. Six months ago the attack was Albanese was travelling too much. Now he isn’t travelling enough. The few that are listening would recall the earlier position and see the hypocrisy.
Lars Von Trier @ Wednesday, April 12, 2023 at 2:44 pm
“Lol agree griff. It’ll be a cold day in hell before Yabba admits error .”
You need some work on those comprehension skills Edward/Edwina/Lars 😉
ar: “I think that suspicion is unwarranted. If you’ve got $50k+ to spend on an EV, spending $5k on rooftop solar so that you can charge it efficiently is a no-brainer.”
The survey found that 60 per cent of EV households had rooftop solar, with average installed capacity of 6.9kW, and one quarter had battery storage too, with an average size of 15.5kWh. Some 30 per cent of solar power system owners and 22 per cent of home battery owners indicated they installed the technology specifically to charge their EV.
https://thedriven.io/2021/06/20/most-ev-owners-have-rooftop-solar-and-many-install-it-just-to-charge-their-car/
60% down from 80%, which is about what I expected. With the increased volume of EV’s will come the increased volume of EV owners that rent. In the beginning people got EV’s because they could charge them themselves. Now they just get them because they’re cheaper all around to run and are better for the environment.
Why would the leader of our country, that is the PM, need to attend the NATO summit. We are not a part of NATO. (If people aren’t sure why, look up the meaning of the acronym) I am sure the PM has far more important work to do.
That doesn’t mean that we shouldn’t have observers at the summit to find out what is going on.
This sort of thing is why we should never privatise essential services that are in public ownership: https://www.smh.com.au/national/nsw/has-your-bus-been-cancelled-recently-here-s-one-hidden-reason-why-20230411-p5czh8.html
ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence was up 1.1pts to 79.3 this week after the RBA paused a run of ten consecutive interest rate increases last week. The index has now increased a modest 2.8pts from it’s mid-March low of 76.5 – the lowest it has been since early in the pandemic.
However, this is the sixth week in a row the index has been below the mark of 80 – the longest stretch below 80 since the index began being conducted on a weekly basis in October 2008. The last time Consumer Confidence spent at least six weeks under 80 was during the 1990-91 recession when the index was conducted on a monthly basis.
Consumer Confidence is now 15.3pts below the same week a year ago, April 4-10, 2022 (94.6) and 1.9pts below the 2023 weekly average of 81.2. Consumer Confidence was up in most States including Victoria, Queensland, Western Australia and South Australia, but down slightly in NSW.
The driver of this week’s increase was improved buying sentiment with more Australians saying now is a ‘good time to buy’ major household items following the RBA’s decision to pause interest rate increases while there was little change in views on personal finances or the Australian economy.
https://www.roymorgan.com/findings/9205-anz-roy-morgan-consumer-confidence-april-12
”
Mavissays:
Wednesday, April 12, 2023 at 1:47 pm
Socrates:
Wednesday, April 12, 2023 at 1:29 pm
[‘Mavis
Thanks for the link to the series “The West” which I watched Episodes 1 to 3 of last night. I really liked episode 3 on the Rule of Law for the reasons we discussed earlier last evening. I will watch the rest with interest.’]
You’re welcome. I think the series is scholarly & convincing but accept that others take a contrary view. Apparently, there are 6 episodes. I’ll be interested in the last one as it may speak to the current geopolitical standoff.
”
The Asian countries certainly do with the concept that The West is foundation of modern Civilization and rule of law. The West won over the East by use of power and colonization. Before that The East had thriving civilizations where India and China constituted about 34% economy of the world.
https://indianculture.gov.in/node/2730146#:~:text=India%2C%20in%20the%20medieval%20times,a%20long%20period%20of%20time.
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Europeans_in_Medieval_China
I see Birmingham is defying Herr Kipfler.
When will Birmo resign?
Is Oppo Leader Kipfler frying in hot oil yet?
‘Lars Von Trier says:
Wednesday, April 12, 2023 at 2:07 pm
I would have thought it’s Boer who is the candidate for tu quoque fallacy criticism.
Poor Yabba is just out of touch.’
————————–
Irony not being a particularly strong part of Lars’ IQ.
But what would you expect?
Dutton’s approach to the Voice goes to the heart of the Coalition’s corruption: bad faith lying. There can be no trust. There is no integrity. Anyone can be sacrificed. Politics is a form of anti-social Darwinism with the Coalition’s inner scum rising to the surface and the nastiest, most conniving and most vicious rising to the top. ﹰPrograms are corrupted. ﹰManagement is corrupted. ﹰPolicy is corrupted. National security is compromised. The environment is trashed. Time itself is trashed. The past is put away. The future is eaten. There is only a savage ever-rolling present of dog eat dog and the devil take the hindmost. Envy, cynicism, fear and loathing debase the social coinage.
Larsland.
Yes, we have no bananas.
From the Guardian:
‘Simon Birmingham won’t campaign for no vote on voice to parliament
The shadow minister for foreign affairs says he won’t be actively campaigning for a “no” vote in the voice to parliament referendum.’
caf: “Also AEMO quotes “approximately 10%” for the losses in transmission and distribution on the NEM.”
I know this, which is why I knew that 20% losses was pulled from a nether region. It’s actually a bit less than that, but the concept of ‘loss’ in this context could mean anything including people just stealing energy.
Even that is decreasing though, because in Oz, the biggest contributor to emissions losses is distance. As more and more renewables are built, the closer the source of extraction of the energy to the consumption of it gets. Solar and wind energy will be soaked up by the batteries closest to the source. As opposed to the 60% or more of energy that is lost as heat in ICE engines just by running, without even mentioning the fact that you’re extracting liquid from kilometres underground, boiling it to a few hundred degrees, and then shipping it to the other side of the world.
If you think you’re a special case because you choose your ICE car ‘wisely’, the only person you’re kidding is yourself. Even if the grid was 100% FF’s, which it isn’t by any stretch, an EV would STILL be better for the environment than an ICE car. As that isn’t the case by an order of magnitude or more, there really isn’t any world where an ICE car purchase for the environment is a thing.
Draw a line under it. It’s done. Lots of reasons that people by ICE cars (like saving money short-term) . But saving the environment isn’t one of them.
Ven says:
The West won over the East by use of power and colonization. Before that The East had thriving civilizations where India and China constituted about 34% economy of the world.
________
Incorrect. It was won over by the cunning use of flags.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UTduy7Qkvk8
If ministers have to personally consider all ministerial decisions and cannot delegate them, or even part of them, then the work of government could possibly grind to a halt as some ministers confront tens of thousands of ministerial decisions a year:
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2023/apr/12/high-court-ruling-casts-doubt-on-hundreds-of-australian-visa-refusals
ﹰPrograms are corrupted. ﹰManagement is corrupted. ﹰPolicy is corrupted. National security is compromised. The environment is trashed. Time itself is trashed. The past is put away. The future is eaten. There is only a savage ever-rolling present of dog eat dog and the devil take the hindmost. Envy, cynicism, fear and loathing debase the social coinage.
Larsland.
_______
Lars please stop destroying society, the environment and space/time.
The bootstrapping that I predicted yesterday has started today.
Bwana Dutton, saviour of Australia’s Indigenous First Nations, is in Alice Springs.
Larsland.
When no means yes.
If Birmingham tried this ‘Mum’s the Word’ routine in the army they would have him up for dumb insolence.
He needs a spine transplant.
India was more of a corporate takeover than colonization and throughout history most demographic change has gone from east to west and that’s why many progressive western values might be on borrowed time.
‘Mexicanbeemer says:
Wednesday, April 12, 2023 at 3:21 pm
India was more of a corporate takeover than colonization…’
—————————————
Corporate takeover until Great Britain took over.
Boerwarsays:
Wednesday, April 12, 2023 at 3:24 pm
‘Mexicanbeemer says:
Wednesday, April 12, 2023 at 3:21 pm
India was more of a corporate takeover than colonization…’
—————————————
Corporate takeover until Great Britain took over.
————-
Yep when they bailed out the East India Company.
@Boerwar
The Act is very clear that this particular Ministerial power may not be delegated – see 3 below. That doesn’t mean that no Minister may delegate any decision.
If the Minister wants to delegate 2 or 2(c) of the migration Act, then he needs to pass legislation that repeals 3. It’s as simple as that. This doesn’t effect any of the billions of other things that Ministers delegate each day, because clause 3 is a rarity, not the norm.
Turns out, Ministers have to obey the law. What a scoop
https://www.legislation.gov.au/Details/C2021C00156
(2) If the Minister thinks that it is in the public interest to do so, the Minister may, by written notice given to an unauthorised maritime arrival, determine that subsection (1) does not apply to an application by the unauthorised maritime arrival for a visa of a class specified in the determination.
(2A) A determination under subsection (2) may provide that it has effect only for the period specified in the determination and, if it does so, the determination ceases to have effect at the end of the specified period.
(2B) The period specified in a determination may be different for different classes of unauthorised maritime arrivals.
(2C) The Minister may, in writing, vary or revoke a determination made under subsection (2) if the Minister thinks that it is in the public interest to do so.
(3) The power under subsection (2) or (2C) may only be exercised by the Minister personally.
CAF / Pi
If we are on the topic of an honest accounting of the whole life-cycle emissions from various transport energy sources, another big one that was rarely accounted for in the past is the huge volume of energy (and GHG emissions) used/created by oil refineries. Each large refinery uses several GJ of energy per year. Globally they are the third largest stationary emitters of GHG, after coal power plants and gas plants.
https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2666675822001576
So by only counting FF car emissions at the tailpipe, we have left a lot out.
I think Birmingham has miscalculated. Peeps are onto him and all his faces and hats. His word nest is visibly overflowing with weasels.
Mavis @ #749 Wednesday, April 12th, 2023 – 1:47 pm
Any link to it? My googlefu keeps failing and trying to get me to watch Ken Burns (probably amazing) series on the American west.
Boerwar
He needs a spine transplant.
Like I said… Simon Birmingham is a Fillet-o-Fish: no guts, no backbone.
Cronussays:
Wednesday, April 12, 2023 at 1:10 pm
“ Twitter has ceased to be an independent company after merging with a newly formed shell firm called X Corp, driving speculation about what Elon Musk intends for the social media platform.”
“ The world’s second-richest man has professed his desire to make X similar to China’s WeChat, a super-app owned by Tencent and used for everything from payments and booking event tickets to messaging.”
https://www.afr.com/world/north-america/twitter-no-longer-exists-musk-merges-firm-20230411-p5czpe
—————————————————–
This was his plan at Paypal and part of the reason Thiel organised the vote to remove him while he was on his honeymoon in Australia.
Looks like he can now attempt what he had in mind 20 years ago.
Andrew Laming is apparently making moves to get back in.
He is a class act who would fit right in.
Dutton’s approach to the Voice goes to the heart of the Coalition’s corruption: bad faith lying. There can be no trust. There is no integrity. Dog whistling is the norm. Anyone can be sacrificed. Politics is a form of anti-social Darwinism with the Coalition’s inner scum rising to the surface and the nastiest, most conniving and most vicious rising to the top. ﹰPrograms are corrupted. ﹰManagement is corrupted. ﹰPolicy is corrupted. National security is compromised. The environment is trashed. Time itself is trashed. The past is put away. The future is eaten. There is only a savage ever-rolling present of dog eat dog and the devil take the hindmost. Envy, cynicism, fear and loathing debase the social coinage.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Andrew_Laming