James Massola of the Age/Herald reports that “expectations (are) growing that former Prime Minister Scott Morrison will quit politics”, probably between the May budget and the end of the year, entailing a by-election for his seat of Cook. Please let it be so, because a valley of death stretches before those of us in the election industry out to the second half of next year, to be followed by a flood encompassing the Northern Territory on August 24, the Australian Capital Territory on October 19, Queensland on October 26 and Western Australia on March 8 the following year (UPDATE: It’s noted that the Queensland local government elections next March, inclusive as they are of the unusually significant Brisbane City Council and lord mayoralty, should rate a mention). A normal federal election for the House of Representatives and half the Senate could happen in the second half of 2024 or the first of 2025, the alternative of a double dissolution being presumably unlikely.
Redistributions will offer some diversion in the interim, particularly after the Electoral Commissioner calculates how many House of Representatives seats each state is entitled to in the next parliament on June 27. This is likely to result in Western Australia gaining a seat and New South Wales and Victoria each losing one (respectively putting them at 16, 46 and 38), initiating redistribution processes that are likely to take around a year. There is also an outside chance that Queensland will gain a thirty-first seat. The Northern Territory will also have a redistribution on grounds of it having been seven years since one was last conducted, although this will involve either a minimal tweak to the boundary between Solomon and Lingiari or no change at all. At state level, a redistribution process was recently initiated in Western Australia and should conclude near the end of the year. The other state that conducts a redistribution every term, South Australia, gives its boundaries commission wide latitude on when it gets the ball rolling, but past experience suggests it’s likely to be near the end of the year.
However, the main electoral event of the foreseeable future is undoubtedly the Indigenous Voice referendum, which is likely to be held between October and December. Kevin Bonham has a post on polling for referendum in which he standardises the various results, which differ markedly in terms of their questions and response structures, and divines a fall in support from around 65% in the middle of last year to around 58% at present. For those of you with access to academic journals, there is also a paper by Murray Goot of Macquarie University in the Journal of Australian Studies entitled “Support in the Polls for an Indigenous Constitutional Voice: How Broad, How Strong, How Vulnerable?” In narrowing it down to credible polls with non-binary response options (i.e. those allowing for uncommitted responses of some kind, as distinct from forced response polls), Goot finds support has fallen from around 58% to 51% from the period of May to September to the period of October to January, while opposition had risen from 18% to 27%. The change was concentrated among Coalition supporters: whereas Labor and especially Greens supporters were consistently and strongly in favour, support among Coalition fell from around 45% to 36%.
Forced response questions consistently found between 60% and 65% in favour regardless of question wording, while non-binary polls (i.e. allowing for various kind of uncommitted response) have almost invariably had at over 50%. Goot notes that forced response polls have found respondents breaking between for and against in similar proportion to the rest, which “confounds the idea that, when push comes to shove, ‘undecided’ voters will necessarily vote no”. However, he also notes that questions in non-binary polls that have produced active majorities in favour have either mentioned an Indigenous Voice or the Uluru Statement from the Heart, or “rehearsed the Prime Minister’s proposal to amend the Constitution”. One that conspicuously did not do any of these things was a Dynata poll for the Institute of Public Affairs, which got a positive result of just 28% by priming respondents with a leading question and then emphasised that the proposal would involve “laws for every Australian”. JWS Research got only 43% in favour and 23% against, but its response structure was faulted by Goot for including a “need more information” option, which ruled the 20% who chose it out of contention one way or the other.
he thing with the electrical network it is quickly moving away from coal generation.
VE
Thanks. Good post, IMO.
pi, just for info, the 20% losses I pulled out from my nether regions was the approximate figure of overall losses from measured at generator output, plus ex-system metered input, to total read at user meter, that we found was necessary to balance the full system simulation models my company built and installed for multiple power authorities. ie, what you had to produce cf what the customers actually paid for. Some of us have actual direct experience to try to draw on, even if a bit hazily. I have the models on my system here.
It was easier to pull out of my nethers than a Merc ECA I must admit.
Also, pi, did you factually source your $5,000 figure for the solar installation to charge the vehicle overnight. Quotes I got were $14,500 to $17,000. I pay 10.5 cents per kWh for off peak.
You have me confused with someone else.
At the moment in Australia you should be paying around $1/W for the full system installed, for decent quality panels and inverter. You’ll get quotes for significantly more than that but shop around.
You can read more of the article about Andrew Laming setting himself up for a return to politics in my tweet below.
https://twitter.com/Leroy_Lynch/status/1645959904937791490
As David Marler on twitter pointed out, the state QLD MP Laming might want to replace, Mark Robinson, has been courted by Pauline Hanson in the past. Not beyond the realms of possibility that Laming gains pre-selection and Robinson defects to One Nation.
https://www.9news.com.au/national/lnp-on-guard-against-one-nation-threat/8209fd40-16b3-475f-b27b-c893974fc9ed/8209fd40-16b3-475f-b27b-c893974fc9ed
yabba @ #805 Wednesday, April 12th, 2023 – 3:59 pm
If those quotes are for solar (as in, not solar + batteries) they’re either ripping you off or you’re asking them for something in the 15-20kW range. You should be able to find 6.6kW systems (5kW inverter capacity) trading in the $500-1000 per kW range, supplied and installed, if you’re not demanding microinverters or other niche options.
6.6kW will keep an EV charged if you do average to moderately above average amounts of driving. Not overnight though.
For ~$15k I’d be expecting the 6.6kW solar system plus a Powerwall to go with it. Though get 2 Powerwalls if you’re serious about recharging overnight on stored solar energy. Might as well also double up on panels at that point, since they’re so cheap relative to the batteries anyways.
Leroy
Thank you.
Will Dutton raise this while he is Alice Springs?
https://parrtjimaaustralia.com.au/
https://www.google.com/search?client=firefox-b-d&sxsrf=APwXEddKw7_Qf3kP2-1jzCL3l3ctmp8qGQ:1681281278478&q=images+of+parrtijima&tbm=isch&source=univ&fir=Si64HwJVz7c-0M%252CV9O5zfVfWo1AzM%252C_%253BkAwCm6lWf-FFIM%252C0fgsCnwT1C1UzM%252C_%253BqJuY9H_vNkt4yM%252C0fgsCnwT1C1UzM%252C_%253BshCW21z0D8V2-M%252C0fgsCnwT1C1UzM%252C_%253BetO5i4wXcks8BM%252Cu6ueaOw0peVtEM%252C_%253BVnIxvv6Wl8UPnM%252C0fgsCnwT1C1UzM%252C_%253BBCEMgbSjdnXLdM%252CgEu0K15Flg39KM%252C_%253B5PFWI1C5BEXnLM%252C0fgsCnwT1C1UzM%252C_%253BzYxAuvA8G9Bn2M%252C5hM4hU8K71x_wM%252C_%253BaXgWeKwNO7zpsM%252C6wOJsZxaFiHpyM%252C_&usg=AI4_-kTzvnY8-SAivpNmU_Pc69B6mvq2Cw&sa=X&ved=2ahUKEwjh0Pvq3KP-AhVbjVYBHUxyAzsQ7Al6BAgdEBM&biw=1699&bih=778&dpr=1.09
this peter black was a nsw mpbut was only a back bencher he was cicked off brockin hill cowncil in 2016 sort of simelar to the wa liberal mp who served for years but did nothing orthe liberal senater who was friends with howard
whiy would lnp want laming back he was sexist towards woman even even though the claims could not be provin beyond reasonable dought and he forced them to withdwar after higgins and laming only being a back bencher do the liberals want some one of his reputation back in parliament just shows they had nothing well that sexist disgrace one of the nastyist senaters ian mcdonald not the labor minister but that qld senater along with barry osulivan was one of the most rude people to ever become a mp
for a person who was a back bencher his intire corear and achieved nothing a bit strange whiy he wants to come back was never a minister just because he abused a state mp was not criminalyeyt acording to laming its thevictems fault egzackltly theattitude of people like him
dont know laming but he seems to have a good legal team for the party of fredom of speech he likes defermation
Birmo refusing to campaign for the No vote, as his leader demanded.
https://www.news.com.au/finance/work/leaders/simon-birmingham-wont-campaign-for-no-voice-campaign-but-wont-quit-front-bench/news-story/7594336158406f475d5d06e0c775dd06
Latest Morgan.
ALP two-party preferred support increases; ALP 56% L-NP 44% as Liberal Party announces they will oppose ‘The Voice’ referendum.
https://roymorganresearch.cmail19.com/t/j-l-etkso-ouhituihd-d/
should bermingham realy have to resign says he will not campaign against the voice but also not foor uit tecnicaly he has not brockin any rules plus if hanson gets her way there will be no moderits left how ever is bermingham really a moderit that so called moderit one of our worst aterney generals brandis aposis the voice making two good speeches does not let me forget ghis trashing of the admin tribunal the human rights comition and stacking his mates yes he made a pationate speech on hanson does not make him a moderit
plus brandis wanted to increase racizm by amending the racial discrimination act to protect andrew bolt
Wyatt!
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/live/2023/apr/12/australia-news-live-china-vows-to-reestablish-trust-barley-tariffs-john-olsen-tax-indigenous-voice-parliament-budget-climate?filterKeyEvents=false&page=with:block-643654248f08791e579d32e8#block-643654248f08791e579d32e8
First The Voice opinion poll post Dutton’s announcement is keenly anticipated. I think it was Pi (could be wrong) who said a declining opinion poll vote could finish off Dutton pre referendum question.
A narrowing is likely to result in an explosion of rage would be my guess.
I see Birmingham has re-calibrated his principles enough to maintain his shadow ministry paypacket.
The next poll on the Voice, especially Coalition voters support for yes or no, that will be more interesting.
Dutton is a busted flush, Lars, he’s just some wannabe Abbott or Howard.
Matters of constitutional amendment should always require the entitlement to a conscience vote for parliamentarians.
Dutton has gone straight to Alice Springs to do a reprise of the old African Gangs routine. This is a pale repeat of the Howard years.
Ancient Bludgers would recall that Howard/Windschuttle Dynamic Duo used strict legal standards to whitesplain that Tasmania had largely been settled. Massacres?
The plan was then to export Windschuttle’s historical techniques to the mainland.
This failed spectacularly because there was so much evidence about so very many massacres that Windschuttle was scuppered.
So what did the goodfellas do?
They reverted to explaining that it was all necessary and justified because Indigenous people were savages. They just had to be civilized for their own good.
The pale echo? ‘African Gangs Dutton’ is dog whistling law and order in Alice Springs.
Boerwar says:
Wednesday, April 12, 2023 at 3:11 pm
Yes, we have no bananas.
From the Guardian:
‘Simon Birmingham won’t campaign for no vote on voice to parliament
The shadow minister for foreign affairs says he won’t be actively campaigning for a “no” vote in the voice to parliament referendum.’
———————————————————————-
Good, but f he’s publicly acting against the party room directive shouldn’t he too as a minister resign his position in the Senate?
Rex, that’s a fair point, I’ll go with you on that, in fairness both Labor and Coalition MPs should have had a conscience vote on the Voice.
Rex Douglas @ #823 Wednesday, April 12th, 2023 – 5:03 pm
What is the point of a conscience vote when your MPs don’t have a conscience?
Have any Greens MPs or Senators shown a bit of spine and come out publicly in favour of actually building 30,000 houses, including 4,000 earmarked for victims of domestic violence?
Sadly having a conscience vote requires the possession of one.
That rules out most of the coalition.
Themunz says:
Wednesday, April 12, 2023 at 3:42 pm
Cronussays:
Wednesday, April 12, 2023 at 1:10 pm
“ Twitter has ceased to be an independent company after merging with a newly formed shell firm called X Corp, driving speculation about what Elon Musk intends for the social media platform.”
“ The world’s second-richest man has professed his desire to make X similar to China’s WeChat, a super-app owned by Tencent and used for everything from payments and booking event tickets to messaging.”
https://www.afr.com/world/north-america/twitter-no-longer-exists-musk-merges-firm-20230411-p5czpe
—————————————————–
This was his plan at Paypal and part of the reason Thiel organised the vote to remove him while he was on his honeymoon in Australia.
Looks like he can now attempt what he had in mind 20 years ago.
——————————————————
Exactly, I recall hearing this intent a couple of years ago, sometime before he bought Twitter, and that was the plan as I understood it. It’ll be interesting to watch how it plays out.
Biden ‘blocks’ Zelensky’s Ukraine NATO membership
https://youtu.be/05eNh4PkZgI
Cronus says:
Wednesday, April 12, 2023 at 5:10 pm
The billionaire owner has in the past suggested that buying Twitter would be an “accelerant” for creating X — which he dubbed an “everything app.” Musk tweeted about the move Tuesday with the single character “X.”
Doesn’t Musk mean “Z”?
Rex Douglassays:
Wednesday, April 12, 2023 at 5:00 pm
He’s approaching your level of integrity.
Sceptic @ #832 Wednesday, April 12th, 2023 – 5:21 pm
Perhaps he meant “Q”?
For ten years saving Indigenous lives was of zero interest to Dutton. Now?
He is trying to save his own political skin. Nothing more. Nothing less.
https://www.smh.com.au/national/australia-news-live-voice-to-parliament-divides-opposition-further-as-julian-leeser-resigns-from-liberal-frontbench-imf-downbeat-on-global-outlook-20230411-p5czmy.html
Could be wrong, but I’ve always assumed that the “everything-app” flies as a concept in China because the Chinese government prefers it that way. Great way to keep tabs on who’s doing what.
Can’t really see Elon being successful porting that concept over to the U.S. because 1) the culture is against centralized power in general, and 2) the
2,000 Twitter engineers2,000 Twitter staffers, only some of whom are engineers, he has left aren’t up to the task of building it in the first place.Anyone suggesting Dutton has no principles is wrong.
Dutton is committed to the Christian conservative culture and western capitalism.
His genuine and sincere desire is for all Australians of all backgrounds to unite …within his own culture and ideology.
Dutton says he’d rather talk to shoppers in supermarkets – the bloke is a class A moron! I have to conclude Paul Fletcher is hanging around on that shadow front bench because he’ll challenge for the leadership when the No vote predictably goes down in a screaming heap in October or November.
And for those spruiking Matt Kean going into federal politics, do you honestly think the current federal Liberal Party going to the extreme loony right under Dutton’s leadership would accept a bloke like Matt Kean?
If the Reichstuber didn’t oppose the Voice what would he have to offer a mea culpa over 15 years from now?
Rex Douglas says:
Wednesday, April 12, 2023 at 5:27 pm
Anyone suggesting Dutton has no principles is wrong.
Dutton is committed to the Christian conservative culture and western capitalism.
His genuine and sincere desire is for all Australians of all backgrounds to unite …within his own culture and ideology.
—————————————
LOL Rex Douglas
I couldn’t bring myself to watch that western civilisation stuff, after I looked at the mob who produced it and its founder. Given where they are coming from even the rule of law is really an oppressive tool of colonisation and theft, rather than something grand and liberal.
Reuters reports China will implement a no-fly zone north of Taiwan between the 16th and 18th of April
One senior official with direct knowledge of the matter said the flight ban would affect 60 percent-70 percent of flights going between Northeast Asia and Southeast Asia, as well as flights between Taiwan and South Korea, Japan and North America.
Are we any closer to knowing who on the Coalition front bench will be actively campaigning for the ‘No’ vote in the referendum on an Indigenous Voice to Parliament?
Over 180,000 Russian soldiers have now been permanently eliminated by the Armed Forces of Ukraine, after the deadliest day for the invaders in two and a half weeks:
Russians KIA Apr 11: 730
Total Russians KIA: 180,050
Daily average Russians KIA: 437.0
Source: General Staff of Ukraine’s Armed Forces
https://www.pravda.com.ua/eng/news/2023/04/12/7397476/
Everyone, whether Ukrainian, Russian or otherwise, has cause to mourn Putin’s decision to make these fatalities necessary. The sooner he is disempowered, the better for everyone.
Why does The Guardian publish this sort of indulgent drivel?
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2023/apr/11/i-moved-from-london-to-sydney-for-a-man-i-had-spent-six-days-with-of-course-it-was-a-mistake
Kevin Bonham @kevinbonham
Morgan federal ALP 36.5 L-NP 33.5 Green 12.5 others 17.5 Their 2PP 56 to ALP (+1.5) My estimate for their primaries 55.4 (+1.4)
Sceptic @Wednesday, April 12, 2023:
“Doesn’t Musk mean “Z”?”
=======================
The way he’s regurgitated Putin talking points on Ukraine, he’d just just be maximising economy of expression if he typed that. 😐
Rex Douglas @ #837 Wednesday, April 12th, 2023 – 5:27 pm
There is no evidence that Dutton is particular religious. He hangs out with the religious right, but so does Trump who also not religious. Dutton brings the worst of cop culture to the LNP.
KPMG endorses the Statement from the Heart.
“KPMG endorses the Statement from the Heart.”
Based on my stint there it has me reviewing my support (*kidding*) but that isn’t that unlike Morrison coming out in strong support for refugees.