James Massola of the Age/Herald reports that “expectations (are) growing that former Prime Minister Scott Morrison will quit politics”, probably between the May budget and the end of the year, entailing a by-election for his seat of Cook. Please let it be so, because a valley of death stretches before those of us in the election industry out to the second half of next year, to be followed by a flood encompassing the Northern Territory on August 24, the Australian Capital Territory on October 19, Queensland on October 26 and Western Australia on March 8 the following year (UPDATE: It’s noted that the Queensland local government elections next March, inclusive as they are of the unusually significant Brisbane City Council and lord mayoralty, should rate a mention). A normal federal election for the House of Representatives and half the Senate could happen in the second half of 2024 or the first of 2025, the alternative of a double dissolution being presumably unlikely.
Redistributions will offer some diversion in the interim, particularly after the Electoral Commissioner calculates how many House of Representatives seats each state is entitled to in the next parliament on June 27. This is likely to result in Western Australia gaining a seat and New South Wales and Victoria each losing one (respectively putting them at 16, 46 and 38), initiating redistribution processes that are likely to take around a year. There is also an outside chance that Queensland will gain a thirty-first seat. The Northern Territory will also have a redistribution on grounds of it having been seven years since one was last conducted, although this will involve either a minimal tweak to the boundary between Solomon and Lingiari or no change at all. At state level, a redistribution process was recently initiated in Western Australia and should conclude near the end of the year. The other state that conducts a redistribution every term, South Australia, gives its boundaries commission wide latitude on when it gets the ball rolling, but past experience suggests it’s likely to be near the end of the year.
However, the main electoral event of the foreseeable future is undoubtedly the Indigenous Voice referendum, which is likely to be held between October and December. Kevin Bonham has a post on polling for referendum in which he standardises the various results, which differ markedly in terms of their questions and response structures, and divines a fall in support from around 65% in the middle of last year to around 58% at present. For those of you with access to academic journals, there is also a paper by Murray Goot of Macquarie University in the Journal of Australian Studies entitled “Support in the Polls for an Indigenous Constitutional Voice: How Broad, How Strong, How Vulnerable?” In narrowing it down to credible polls with non-binary response options (i.e. those allowing for uncommitted responses of some kind, as distinct from forced response polls), Goot finds support has fallen from around 58% to 51% from the period of May to September to the period of October to January, while opposition had risen from 18% to 27%. The change was concentrated among Coalition supporters: whereas Labor and especially Greens supporters were consistently and strongly in favour, support among Coalition fell from around 45% to 36%.
Forced response questions consistently found between 60% and 65% in favour regardless of question wording, while non-binary polls (i.e. allowing for various kind of uncommitted response) have almost invariably had at over 50%. Goot notes that forced response polls have found respondents breaking between for and against in similar proportion to the rest, which “confounds the idea that, when push comes to shove, ‘undecided’ voters will necessarily vote no”. However, he also notes that questions in non-binary polls that have produced active majorities in favour have either mentioned an Indigenous Voice or the Uluru Statement from the Heart, or “rehearsed the Prime Minister’s proposal to amend the Constitution”. One that conspicuously did not do any of these things was a Dynata poll for the Institute of Public Affairs, which got a positive result of just 28% by priming respondents with a leading question and then emphasised that the proposal would involve “laws for every Australian”. JWS Research got only 43% in favour and 23% against, but its response structure was faulted by Goot for including a “need more information” option, which ruled the 20% who chose it out of contention one way or the other.
These Russian invaders are sick, brutal animals:
“Two videos have emerged on social media in the past week which purport to show beheaded Ukrainian soldiers.
The videos appear to be of separate events – one of them may have been filmed very recently, while the other, from the amount of foliage seen on the ground, looks like it was filmed during the summer.
The first video, which was posted to a pro-Russian social media channel on April 8, was purportedly filmed by Russian mercenaries from the Wagner group and appears to show the beheaded corpses of two Ukrainian soldiers lying on the ground next to a destroyed military vehicle.
In the video, a voice can be heard, behind the camera, the sound seemingly distorted to prevent the speaker’s identification.
“(The armored vehicle) got f**ked by a mine,” the voice, speaking Russian, says.
Apparently referring to the bodies on the ground, the voice, laughing, continues, “They killed them. Someone came up to them. They came up to them and cut their heads off.”
The dead soldiers also appear to have had their hands cut off.
Russian social media accounts say the video was shot near Bakhmut in eastern Ukraine, which has been the scene of the war’s fiercest fighting for many months, with Wagner fighters heavily involved. CNN is unable to independently confirm the video’s location.
The second video, which was posted on Twitter and is heavily blurred, looks to have been filmed during the summer because of the amount of plant life on the ground. It purports to show a Russian fighter using a knife to cut off the head of a Ukrainian soldier. A voice at the beginning of the video suggests the victim might have still been alive when the attack began.”
https://edition.cnn.com/2023/04/11/europe/beheading-videos-ukraine-intl-hnk-ml/index.html
These sick Russian fucks are as bad as ISIS. What montrosities do they have to commit before they – and the country which raised them, trained them, armed them and commended them – are branded terrorists and treated accordingly? The world would be a much better place if they were gone.
https://www.betootaadvocate.com/breaking-news/liberals-begin-campaign-to-win-back-teal-seats-by-opposing-the-voice-to-parliament/
LOLZ
https://www.theshovel.com.au/2023/04/12/dalai-lama-welcomed-into-catholic-church/
A discussion about the Russian beheadings of the Ukrainian soldiers:
https://youtu.be/PtlM_eqcSbo
Up to 2:50
a r @ #808 Wednesday, April 12th, 2023 – 4:20 pm
Quote was for panels plus battery with gear for car charging. Investigation only. I was doing sums on an imported second hand Leaf. My vehicle use is almost all in daylight hours. I do regular trips to Sydney, to clients and family (100km each way), and up to our bush block (70 km).
Just now, I’ll stick with the Picasso. Comfortable, economical and fun, and good for 1,000 km on a 60 lt tank, on a trip.
the media are triying to turn leecer in to some kind of hearow becaus he suposidly resigned over the voice but forgot to mention he supports a modil of voice no body supports andhe wants the body to have no power he was a senyor advisor to phillop ruddock and abott Ruddock as if mark dreyfuss the aterney general who has decades of history as a barister representing first nations peopledoes not know as much as leecer
Well, unlike Jeff Kennett, I don’t have an issue with the state funeral for Warnie.
He connected with many, many Victorians and so it was fitting that a celebration of his life was available to them.
the media are making wyatt and leecer to be hearows but the peopleactualy bringing the voice to reality are mark dreyfuss and linda burnie not lecer the long time liberal advisor and think tank director who was backed in to parliament by morrison hawkes centre right
its the same as brandis claiming credit for same sex marige it was penny wong and labor that kept the ishue forcing turnbull to finaly do somthing brandis did nothing it was not even a government bill so it was not even a government desition same with voice how come dreyfuss as one of our best baristers is not getting the creditfor negociating the wording of the voice lecer has no great legal background he mostly worked for the liberal think tank from 2006 to 2012 he then worked for the cathlick university then served from 2016 never rizing abuv the back bench until he was the last person to fill shadow ag dutton wanted stoaker but as she was defeated he had to appoint lecer
C@tmomma @ Wednesday, April 12, 2023 at 6:10 pm:
“A discussion about the Russian beheadings of the Ukrainian soldiers:
https://youtu.be/PtlM_eqcSbo
Up to 2:50″
==================
Major General Rupert Jones knows plenty about ISIS’s medieval battlefield brutality, so it is decisive that he brings up exactly this parallel without prompting himself. We need to start treating Russia and Russians the exact same way we treat ISIS.
Our leader
https://nswbar.asn.au/the-bar-association/publications/inbrief/view/21dc6bda18d1036ec37b45178e10fd85
Mr Leeser resigned from the Opposition front bench on a matter of principle, taking a pay cut and putting his career at risk. He deserves credit for that, even if we might disagree on the detail of the Voice.
is dutton religis does not seem like it heard jacinta price ranting about how the problims in alice springs wasnt she a long serving cowncilor on alice springs including deputy mayor and i understand one of the clp that is the terotory liberal partys nt branch was Damiaan ryan the long serving mayor of alice springs and the local cowncil is dominated buy duttons party what did price and her cowncil do ryan tried to use the crime to strike fear and one of duttons closist allies qld senater and long time crozzby campaigner james mcgrath behind camble newmans 2012 election victory and boris johnsons wanted to introduce voter id to help ryan winn his seat given the large indiginis community now benafit labor nt local government was strong liberal until 2001
Pi @ #805 Wednesday, April 12th, 2023 – 4:00 pm
You are correct. It was ar commenting on one of yours.
On EV charging – one of my kids has bought a Polestar @60K https://www.polestar.com/au/
He has been driving for a week, and the charge has gone from 80% to 57%. Just to and from work, and to basketball training and games.
The Polestar guy says charge it once every 2 weeks. The cable provided is a normal socket connection, though you can get a Type2 if you will be driving long distance (which my kid rarely does). In 2 weeks, no charging required.
Having sat in and driven the car, it is the ants pants. One pedal acceleration and braking (yes it is a thing). Looks and feels like a Volvo, except for the Tesla like screen/control panel. Lots and lots of smarts.
Range anxiety? Seems like a lot of horseshit for the inner city yuppie…
Asked about the support from the NSW Bar for the Voice former detective constable Peter Dutton said: “Everybody knows the profession in NSW is a hotbed of Labor stooges.
“I read this website Poll Bludger and there’s a few on there who better never venture to Queensland or I’ll get my mates to fit ’em up with a DUI or drug possession or something.
“And what would lawyers know about the Constitution?
“Back in Joh’s day we had a way of dealing with the black fellas and their lefty mates. Arrest ’em on fake charge, give ’em a flogging and get one our mates to send ’em to jail.
“That sorted em.”
Enough Already,
Putting the head on a pike shocked me.
C@tmomma @ #867 Wednesday, April 12th, 2023 – 6:42 pm
Shocking but often done in medieval times
No doubt the Costello rag reporting on the cost to the taxpayer for the Warne Memorial Service was designed as an attack on the Victorian government, which is the purpose of that publication
And it appears to have backfired – as it should given decency remains a characteristic of society per se
Then we have the pile in re the major infrastructure projects being undertaken and the cost
Simply these inter generational projects will never be as cheap to construct as they are today
Plus, from a previous life, it is not the debt but the performance of the asset that debt is invested into
And the spend of particularly the Victorian Government kept Australia from recession prior to the Pandemic
Look at the Cash Rate graph as the indicator of the strength of economic activity
@Mavis – I shall have to find time to watch this “the West” YouTube series whether I agree with it or not. thanks for the recommendation.
It would seem Dutton is becoming increasingly isolated:
https://nswbar.asn.au/the-bar-association/publications/inbrief/view/21dc6bda18d1036ec37b45178e10fd85
$2000 in fuel costs for 15,000 Km’s in travel. Believe it or not?
laughtong @ #868 Wednesday, April 12th, 2023 – 6:47 pm
I would have thought we had progressed beyond Mediaevalism.
What a fantastic last sentence from the President of the NSW Bar :
It is time to close the gap in our Constitution.
China declaring a no-fly zone north of Taiwan for 3 days next week. The Chinese seem to be toying with and trying to normalise a blockade of Taiwan.
Let’s hope both the Chinese , Taiwanese and Americans act wisely and sensibly in this situation. This has Cuban Missile Crisis potential.
I have heard people speak of how great the Warne memorial service was; I think it was an appreciated thing for a lot of people who connected with one of the most famous and celebrated men in the country, flaws and good points alike. It was something like 55,000 people at the MCG plus a huge TV audience, of course it costs money, but it seemed to be reasonable bang for buck to respect Warne in that way and provide closure and dare I say entertainment for that many people. State funerals and memorial services are one of those things you do as a civilised society to show respect for achievements even though it would be cheaper to just dump dead bodies down a hole and never think about them again.
laughtong @ Wednesday, April 12, 2023 at 6:47 pm:
“Putting the head on a pike shocked me.
Shocking but often done in medieval times”
====================
laughtong, the medieval period is where this shit should have stayed. Shame on Russia for exhuming this depravity.
Oliver Cromwell’s head was displayed on a pike for decades in London. Must have been quite a sight. He was following in the footsteps of his great great great uncle Thomas Cromwell who was also ‘piked’.
Marie Antoinette was piked, and jauntily paraded through Paris.
The head of Edward, 2nd Duke of York was displayed on the walls of his own city of York during the War of the Roses alongside the head of his son, Edmund, Earl of Rutland.
I can imagine there was a fair bit of payback when their son and brother Edward IV of York eventually prevailed.
https://www.bangkokpost.com/world/2548611/china-plans-no-fly-zone-near-taiwan
85 nautical miles north of Taiwan. The suggestion is maybe some kind of satellite launch is involved.
It’s going to be very disruptive to civil aviation, just as another no-fly zone they declared last year during the big “we are very upset at Nancy Pelosi visiting Taiwan” tantrum-slash-military-exercises.
Doesn’t really sound like an attempt at anything permanent, more of a muscle flexing. And a silly one considering that most of the disrupted aviation is not even going to be Taiwanese, they’ll just be annoying people region-wide.
PRESIDENT VOLODYMYR ZELENSKYY URGES WORLD TO ACT AGAINST RUSSIAN BEHEADING ATROCITIES:
“Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelenskiy has issued a strong statement urging international leaders to act after videos circulated on social media that appeared to show Ukrainian soldiers beheaded by Russian forces.
Zelenskiy issued a video on his social media channels in which he said:
‘There is something that noone in the world can ignore. How easily these beasts kill. This video, the execution of a Ukrainian captive. This is a video of Russia as it is. What kind of people there are.
There are no people for them. A son, a brother, a husband, someone’s child. This is a video of Russia just trying to make that the new norm. Such a habit of destroying life.
This is not an accident. This is not an episode. This was the case earlier. This was the case in Bucha. Thousands of times. Everyone must react. Every leader.
Don’t expect it to be forgotten. That time will pass. We are not going to forget anything. Neither are we going to forgive the murderers. There will be legal responsibility for everything. The defeat of terror is necessary.
No one will understand if the leaders don’t react. Action is required now.
And we in Ukraine must focus on the frontline as much as possible. Help as much as possible. Expel the occupier from our land.
The main goal is to win. The main goal is strength for Ukraine to win. Defeat of the occupier, sentences to murderers. Tribunal for the evil state. Eternal memory to every person whose life was taken by the Russian terror. Glory to all who fight against this evil. Glory to Ukraine.’
One video being circulated appears to show the beheaded corpses of two Ukrainian soldiers lying on the ground next to a destroyed military vehicle. A voice says: “They killed them. Someone came up to them. They came up to them and cut their heads off.”
A second clip, which may have been filmed in summer last year, judging by the appearance of foliage in the clip, claims to show a member of Russian forces using a knife to cut off the head of a Ukrainian soldier.
The Guardian has not independently verified the origins and veracity of the two videos, but Ukrainian authorities are treating them as genuine.”
https://www.theguardian.com/world/live/2023/apr/12/russia-ukraine-war-live-russia-risks-becoming-economic-colony-of-china-as-isolation-deepens-says-cia-director
Any world leader – I include our Prime Minister, Anthony Albanese – who does not swiftly come out and roundly denounce Russia, and its ghoulish dictator Vladimir Putin, for perpetrating these multiple atrocities, is a panderer to Russian influence who no longer deserves their place. There must also be swift and severe retribution visited upon Russia for their gleeful descent into pure barbarism.
Oh no. EA is losing his head again.
C@tmomma says:
Wednesday, April 12, 2023 at 5:44 pm
Are we any closer to knowing who on the Coalition front bench will be actively campaigning for the ‘No’ vote in the referendum on an Indigenous Voice to Parliament?
——————————-
No 😆
Arky you know Kennedy declared a blockade of Cuba – which the Soviets chose to not breach.
What happens when and if the Chinese declare a blockade of Taiwan?
Is the answer different if they only declare a full blockade for say 7 or 28 days duration?
@Boerwar: “KPMG endorses the Statement from the Heart.”
I’m sure we will all sleep better for knowing that soulless accounting and consulting firms have been able to sniff the breeze for the option that will go over best with their clients.
@Boer: “Why does The Guardian publish this sort of indulgent drivel?”
They have a reputation to maintain, it can’t just be wall to wall typos and opinion pieces by Greens activists.
@Evan: “Birmo refusing to campaign for the No vote, as his leader demanded.”
That is called wanting to have it both ways, getting paid paid for being a loyal member of Dutton’s rotten shadow cabinet while waving his arms and going “I’m not with them REALLY”.
nath @ Wednesday, April 12, 2023 at 7:21 pm:
“Oh no. EA is losing his head again.”
==================
Are you fucking serious? You say THAT about posts protesting Russians BEHEADING Ukrainians?? Go laugh and snigger into your Coco Pops.
If a Victorian State Liberal government had put on the memorial for Shane Warne, cost wouldn’t have been an issue for the Murdoch media.
William Bowe, anything to say about Nath’s putrid little contribution at 7:21pm? Or are you fine with that?
EA don’t get a head of yourself.
Cost is only ever an issue for Labor.
@Lars: A full blockade would be a declaration of war if made against a sovereign nation. If you allow China to fully encircle Taiwan then you’ve already given up on defending against an invasion.
As such I suspect the Yanks would declare their intention to exercise freedom of movement through international waters and double dog dare the Chinese to shoot first at the ships that did it. Regardless of whether the blockade was announced as 7. 14, 28 days or permanent.
The Chinese would understand what kind of escalation that would be.
A temporary no fly spot 85 nautical miles away is nothing at all like a full blockade of the island, though.
Nath, I think the principle of diminishing marginal utility is kicking in with your running gag right about now.
These beheading atrocities put the Russian forces on a par with ISIS / Daesh. They are terrorists. Of course we already knew that.
Even though I’m a firm supporter of Ukraine against Russian aggression, I think Enough Already should heed the words of Hiram W Johnson in 1928
“The first casualty of war is truth”
Both sides are amping up the rhetoric, with staged events and false flags. It is only going to get worse, and this blog does not need to see what those interested get from other sources.
sprocket_@ Wednesday, April 12, 2023 at 7:34 pm:
“Even though I’m a firm supporter of Ukraine against Russian aggression, I think Enough Already should heed the words of Hiram W Johnson in 1928
“The first casualty of war is truth”
Both sides are amping up the rhetoric, with staged events and false flags. It is only going to get worse, and this blog does not need to see what those interested get from other sources.”
===================
Sprocket – you are seriously doing ‘both-sides / same-same’ on this? If you are dismissing President Volodymyr Zelenskyy’s crystal clear statement which I posted earlier as no better than Kremlin disinformation, then I point blank disbelieve your “I’m not a Russia supporter, but…” intro to your post.
Watching Birmingham is like watching Penny Wong having to support the Gillard Governments Gay Marriage position…
Ch 7 news showed Dutton in Alice Springs. He seemed to be accompanied by Price and the (white) owner of a bakery who had experienced multiple break-ins. What did Dutton do there and who did he meet? Did he actually talk to anyone who wasn’t a hand picked Liberal-National supporter?
In reality, the Alice is no more than a movie set providing a backdrop for Dutton’s increasingly irrational attacks on the government.
wonder who will be indiginis affairs and shadow aterney general keryn little is aparently indiginis a sa senater former staffer to ann rusoton
Sarah Ferguson interviewing a shiver looking for a spine.
Birmingham is making a mistake. He knows it, we know it. God what a fool.
Arky, there is an emerging view in the US that they need to get Ukraine finished this year because they are running behind on military supplies to Taiwan (which have gone to Ukraine).