Miscellany: redistributions, referendums and by-elections (open thread)

A review to what the electoral calendar holds between now and the next general elections in the second half of next year, including prospects for the Indigenous Voice referendum.

James Massola of the Age/Herald reports that “expectations (are) growing that former Prime Minister Scott Morrison will quit politics”, probably between the May budget and the end of the year, entailing a by-election for his seat of Cook. Please let it be so, because a valley of death stretches before those of us in the election industry out to the second half of next year, to be followed by a flood encompassing the Northern Territory on August 24, the Australian Capital Territory on October 19, Queensland on October 26 and Western Australia on March 8 the following year (UPDATE: It’s noted that the Queensland local government elections next March, inclusive as they are of the unusually significant Brisbane City Council and lord mayoralty, should rate a mention). A normal federal election for the House of Representatives and half the Senate could happen in the second half of 2024 or the first of 2025, the alternative of a double dissolution being presumably unlikely.

Redistributions will offer some diversion in the interim, particularly after the Electoral Commissioner calculates how many House of Representatives seats each state is entitled to in the next parliament on June 27. This is likely to result in Western Australia gaining a seat and New South Wales and Victoria each losing one (respectively putting them at 16, 46 and 38), initiating redistribution processes that are likely to take around a year. There is also an outside chance that Queensland will gain a thirty-first seat. The Northern Territory will also have a redistribution on grounds of it having been seven years since one was last conducted, although this will involve either a minimal tweak to the boundary between Solomon and Lingiari or no change at all. At state level, a redistribution process was recently initiated in Western Australia and should conclude near the end of the year. The other state that conducts a redistribution every term, South Australia, gives its boundaries commission wide latitude on when it gets the ball rolling, but past experience suggests it’s likely to be near the end of the year.

However, the main electoral event of the foreseeable future is undoubtedly the Indigenous Voice referendum, which is likely to be held between October and December. Kevin Bonham has a post on polling for referendum in which he standardises the various results, which differ markedly in terms of their questions and response structures, and divines a fall in support from around 65% in the middle of last year to around 58% at present. For those of you with access to academic journals, there is also a paper by Murray Goot of Macquarie University in the Journal of Australian Studies entitled “Support in the Polls for an Indigenous Constitutional Voice: How Broad, How Strong, How Vulnerable?” In narrowing it down to credible polls with non-binary response options (i.e. those allowing for uncommitted responses of some kind, as distinct from forced response polls), Goot finds support has fallen from around 58% to 51% from the period of May to September to the period of October to January, while opposition had risen from 18% to 27%. The change was concentrated among Coalition supporters: whereas Labor and especially Greens supporters were consistently and strongly in favour, support among Coalition fell from around 45% to 36%.

Forced response questions consistently found between 60% and 65% in favour regardless of question wording, while non-binary polls (i.e. allowing for various kind of uncommitted response) have almost invariably had at over 50%. Goot notes that forced response polls have found respondents breaking between for and against in similar proportion to the rest, which “confounds the idea that, when push comes to shove, ‘undecided’ voters will necessarily vote no”. However, he also notes that questions in non-binary polls that have produced active majorities in favour have either mentioned an Indigenous Voice or the Uluru Statement from the Heart, or “rehearsed the Prime Minister’s proposal to amend the Constitution”. One that conspicuously did not do any of these things was a Dynata poll for the Institute of Public Affairs, which got a positive result of just 28% by priming respondents with a leading question and then emphasised that the proposal would involve “laws for every Australian”. JWS Research got only 43% in favour and 23% against, but its response structure was faulted by Goot for including a “need more information” option, which ruled the 20% who chose it out of contention one way or the other.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,748 comments on “Miscellany: redistributions, referendums and by-elections (open thread)”

Comments Page 19 of 35
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  1. Enough Already, you are dominating this blog about primarily Australian psephology is the point I am making. And starting arguments with those not in lockstep, though all of us would agree with your sentiments.

    Think about taking a break for a while.

  2. The Chicommies are doing brinksmanship by way of incremental escalation.
    Each escalation gets them better prepared for the real thing.
    But that is true for the Taiwanese as well.
    China has made massive improvements in combined arms doctrine and practice.
    Whether China would risk the three carriers is an interesting proposition.
    The carrier borne J15s are past their use by date.
    They stand out like dog’s balls.
    See them, kill them.

  5. Alpha Zerosays:
    Wednesday, April 12, 2023 at 7:42 pm

    Watching Birmingham is like watching Penny Wong having to support the Gillard Governments Gay Marriage position…

    ???

    Wasn’t Labor’s position at the time that MPs had a conscience vote?

  7. UKRAINIAN FOREIGN MINISTER DMYTRO KULEBA: ‘RUSSIA IS LIKE ISIS’

    “Ukrainian foreign minister Dmytro Kuleba has compared Russian fighters in Ukraine to Islamic State after a video circulated online which appeared to show a beheading.

    Kuleba said on Twitter: “A horrific video of Russian troops decapitating a Ukrainian prisoner of war is circulating online.”

    “It’s absurd that Russia, which is worse than Islamic State, is presiding over the UNSC,” he said, referring to the UN security council where Russia took up the rotating presidency this month. “Russian terrorists must be kicked out of Ukraine and the UN and be held accountable for their crimes.”

    Reuters reports Ukraine’s domestic security agency said it had launched an investigation into a suspected war crime over the video.

    “Yesterday, a video appeared on the Internet showing how the Russian occupiers are showing their beastly nature – cruelly torturing a Ukrainian prisoner and cutting off his head,” the SBU agency wrote on Telegram.”

    https://www.theguardian.com/world/live/2023/apr/12/russia-ukraine-war-live-russia-risks-becoming-economic-colony-of-china-as-isolation-deepens-says-cia-director#top-of-blog

    It is a travesty that the Russian Federation has any position of influence at all in the United Nations, let alone a permanent seat and, right this moment, the rotating Presidency of the UN Security Council. A way should be found to kick them off the Security Council altogether for the war crimes, crimes against humanity and genocide they are committing upon Ukrainians.

  8. Julian Leeser back on 7.30 tonight..

    “I think the great benefit of a Voice is that it’s a practical application. It’s an idea at whose very core is that when you consult people, you make better policy about them.” – Liberal MP @JulianLeeser. #abc730 #auspol

  11. sprocket_says:
    Wednesday, April 12, 2023 at 7:52 pm

    Julian Leeser back on 7.30 tonight..

    “I think the great benefit of a Voice is that it’s a practical application. It’s an idea at whose very core is that when you consult people, you make better policy about them.” – Liberal MP @JulianLeeser. #abc730 #auspol

    He’s almost right.

    You need to do more than just consult, you also need to listen to their response.

  12. sprocket_@ Wednesday, April 12, 2023 at 7:46 pm:
    “Enough Already, you are dominating this blog about primarily Australian psephology…”
    ===================

    This is the OPEN THREAD, meaning all topics are permitted. I haven’t heard you complain about the many, many posts on American or British politics and culture, or on cricket and football, that have been posted here over the years. So, why insist now this is exclusively for ‘Australian psephology’? Of course, the answer is obvious: you wish the topic of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine itself were more effectively suppressed here. That says it all, as far as I am concerned. Your objection is noted.

  13. Lars Von Trier @ Wednesday, April 12, 2023 at 7:46 pm:

    “Arky, there is an emerging view in the US that they need to get Ukraine finished this year because they are running behind on military supplies to Taiwan (which have gone to Ukraine).”
    ======================

    Lars, we can only hope. The quicker those fucking Russian animals get turfed out of Ukraine on their stinking backsides, the fewer Ukrainians will get murdered, beheaded, raped, assaulted, tortured, abducted, looted and made homeless.

  14. Sprocket, try sticking your fingers in your ears and singing loudly if you are too uncomfortable being confronted with the atrocities Russians are committing every single day in Ukraine.

  18. Dutton may not know it, but the LNP has lost the next election with this shit.
    If he’d just gone along with the voice the campaign at the next election wouldn’t be on this issue. What a f–king tool.

  19. sprocket_@ Wednesday, April 12, 2023 at 8:04 pm:
    ========================

    Interesting you have had more to say here against someone protesting against Russians beheading Ukrainians than you have against Russians beheading Ukrainians.

  22. Yeah sorry I’m not convinced yabba – have any proof you can share? Like the fuel economy statistics for your vehicle or receipts? These figures sound like VW statistics – long range driving , never stopping and starting in city traffic with a bullshit factor thrown in.

  23. Of course, Moscow did not stop murdering Ukrainian civilians yesterday using their more familiar method – missile strikes:

    “Russian forces carried out attacks against nine Ukrainian oblasts over the past 24 hours, Ukraine’s Defense Ministry media center said on April 12.

    According to local authorities, two civilians were killed, and nine more were wounded in the Russian attacks.

    Russian attacks were reported in Donetsk, Kherson, Chernihiv, Kharkiv, Sumy, Zaporizhzhia, Dnipropetrovsk, Mykolaiv, and Luhansk oblasts in the east, south, and north of Ukraine.”

    https://kyivindependent.com/2-killed-9-injured-as-russia-attacks-9-ukrainian-regions-over-past-24-hours/

    Why do Russians get off on gratuitously murdering Ukrainians? Can anyone here with more familiarity with Russia and Russians please enlighten me?

  25. ”
    Lars Von Triersays:
    Wednesday, April 12, 2023 at 7:04 pm
    China declaring a no-fly zone north of Taiwan for 3 days next week. The Chinese seem to be toying with and trying to normalise a blockade of Taiwan.

    Let’s hope both the Chinese , Taiwanese and Americans act wisely and sensibly in this situation. This has Cuban Missile Crisis potential.
    ”

    You forgot to mention one more country. The sentence should read
    Let’s hope both the Chinese , Taiwanese, Australians and Americans act wisely and sensibly in this situation.

  29. Enough Already, it’s entirely possible for someone to object to the volume of your off-topic comments on Ukraine (the thread may be open, but the website is about Australian politics) and your determination to play thought policeman on the subject without being an acolyte of Vladimir Putin.

  30. i respect the pation but if some one wants to ralley support for ucrane perhaps there could be a more relivant blog maybi on defence ishuesthe war is not front of mind for most of us hear any way on the nsw upper house have the final resultsbeen released willshooters get a spot or only one nation and ldp

  31. For every action there is a reaction

    In regard China, are they supposed to wave at USA and their allies building a military presence on their borders including by challenging the established and universally agreed 70 year plus, post revolution diplomatic status of an Island with the location and history of Taiwan?

    Ditto Russia with a NATO presence on their border – noting the role of NATO in this conflict (and where my view is that Australia should promote a negotiated and sustainable resolution addressing the issues hence Australia correct in not attending a NATO forum)

    And I agree with those passing opinion on the saturation of this site by a certain contributor

    Such entrenched hatred is the problem

  32. re Picasso fuel economy. PostImage is off line.

    https://www.carsguide.com.au/citroen/c4-picasso/2008
    Scroll down to fuel consumption. Mine is the HDI exclusive 6 speed auto. 6.1.l/100km

    I get 5.4 on expressway sectors, and 7 around town, with trips up to Bucketty.

    Mine is the same colour as the one in the picture at the top, except it has black maggies, as original equipment. Beautiful, aerodynamic and frugal.

  33. Most of us support Ukraine here, including me. But if the comments are not directly related to Australia’s role in the Russo-Ukrainian War then I don’t think the discussion is relevant on this blog.

  35. Macarthur can you please stop attacking other posters who dare question the sheer volume of your postings and their relevance to the issues generally discussed on this blog? It is ridiculous that your retort to a genuine ‘Enough Already’ is to scream that they are some sort of Russian apologist for not wanting to be drowned by your frequent rantings. You can support the cause of Ukraine and tell you that your posts are not conducive to the cause given that the sheer volume of them (and the inevitable purity tests you impose) turn off persons who would otherwise be supportive of the cause.

  37. It’s even worse than that Lars:

    What is the Citroën Diesel Emissions Scandal?

    The Dieselgate scandal of 2015 saw Volkswagen admit that they had installed 1.2 million of their vehicles with a “defeat device” which altered their emissions output in order to trick regulatory tests.

    With added scrutiny within the industry, Citroën were referred to the French prosecutors in 2017 by the French consumer watchdog DGCCRF after seized documents indicated that their vehicles also had diesel emission irregularities.

    The company that owns Citroën, The PSA Group, was facing fines of up to €5billion after the diesel emissions probe revealed that 1.9 million of their vehicles could have been fitted with fraudulent defeat devices, similar to those found in Volkswagens.

    A French government-backed testing probe also found that five of the PSA Group’s vehicles emitted substantially more NOx in real-world driving compared to the laboratory. NOx has been linked to multiple diseases, including childhood asthma, cancer, poor foetal development, and depression. Reports suggest that air pollution, which is primarily caused by NOx, is estimated to cause 40,000 premature deaths in the UK each year.

    https://www.emissions.co.uk/manufacturers/citroen/

  38. This blog includes discussions on lots of topics, mostly Australian, mostly politics-related, especially polls and elections. But not exclusively so. General Australian news, world news, Ukraine, Taiwan, the depredations of “chicommies”, public policy, American politics, American news, Trump…. Also AFL, Cricket, and tennis, submarines, defence and other public policy, electric cars, renewables. Weather. TV, music, celebrities.

    It’s what makes the blog interesting. If I am uninterested in a topic or discussion, e.g. AFL, I scroll on by or do something else. No worries. I also skip over the personal arguments between posters.

  39. Update on twitter from Lydia Lynch, QLD political reporter at The Australian

    “Former federal MP Andrew ­Laming has suffered a major blow to his political comeback after ­losing a vote to take over an LNP branch in Brisbane’s bayside. Shane Goodwin, who Laming backed for Bowman FDC chair, also lost.
    Hearing vote was very tight. Laming 49/Reeves 51.”

  40. Lars Von Trier @ Wednesday, April 12, 2023 at 7:46 pm:

    “Arky, there is an emerging view in the US that they need to get Ukraine finished this year because they are running behind on military supplies to Taiwan (which have gone to Ukraine).”

    I hope that is wrong but I also find it a bit odd. The sort of material Ukraine and Taiwan are seeking for defence would be different things, with Taiwan preparing for a sea/amphibious assault.

    There is a lot of propaganda about now on both sides trying to deter weapons shipments to Ukraine, both from Russia and from western sources not wanting to spend more money arming Ukraine.

  41. Whats the view around the blog about Dutton cosying up to someone like Darren Clarke from Alice Springs? The response of the Police to some of his claims have been pretty firm and swift. Dutton sidling up is an interesting choice for him.

    Anyway, my view is that Dutton knows the voice will make or break his leadership. His tactics now are to generate fear and uncertainty and unfortunately some hate will come in through that and it makes me very sad (but not surprised) that his ‘no’ campaign has the potential to set this country back a long long way.

  42. Steve 777, like you I get my Everest worth of scrolling when the monkeys are locked in a room throwing excrement but, I appreciate that most , if not all contributors are interesting and cast a very wide net over the topics you mention and more.
    Indeed, on days when time is short and I’m 5 or 6 pages behind on my blog reading it is easy to skip nearly whole pages as the presence of certain avatars were plainly seen even when they wizz by as you scroll.

  43. William Bowe @ Wednesday, April 12, 2023 at 8:37 pm:

    “Enough Already, it’s entirely possible for someone to object to the volume of your off-topic comments on Ukraine (the thread may be open, but the website is about Australian politics) and your determination to play thought policeman on the subject without being an acolyte of Vladimir Putin.”
    ===============

    William, okay. You’ve given me something to chew on. Perhaps Sprocket was onto something earlier, suggesting a break to consider things. Maybe I am taking things too personally, when there is really no need to.

  44. Lars Von Trier @ #935 Wednesday, April 12th, 2023 – 8:52 pm

    Oh its diesel. That’s like 4 times worse than unleaded petrol?

    Just give up. You have no relevant knowledge whatsoever.

    CO2 emissions are much lower than petrol engines of the same power because of greater efficiency, due to much higher compression ratio, and intercooled exhaust powered turbo-charging. The torque peak occurs at much lower rpm, which allows the vehicle to spend most of its time in 5th and 6th gear.

  45. wranslide @ Wednesday, April 12, 2023 at 8:52 pm:
    =============

    Wranslide, I’m coming around to that view myself. I just had an Easter lunch, where my elderly aunt-in-law broke down in tears, telling us how she thinks Ukraine will not exist much longer. I need to find a way to stop taking things too personally, whether here on a blog or elsewhere. I’m sorry if I’ve upset anyone here in the meantime.

  47. aaron newton @ Wednesday, April 12, 2023 at 8:38 pm:

    “[The Ukraine] war is not front of mind for most of us hear any way…”
    =================

    Aaron, you have put your finger exactly on why I’ve been posting as much and as single-mindedly as I have. If this invasion slips off enough people’s radar, Putin finds it easier to get away with his crimes with less international outrage and hence opposition. Still, I accept I’ve outstayed my welcome here, so rest assured you’ll all get less Ukraine here.

  48. ‘wranslide says:
    Wednesday, April 12, 2023 at 9:13 pm

    Whats the view around the blog about Dutton cosying up to someone like Darren Clarke from Alice Springs? The response of the Police to some of his claims have been pretty firm and swift. Dutton sidling up is an interesting choice for him.

    Anyway, my view is that Dutton knows the voice will make or break his leadership. His tactics now are to generate fear and uncertainty and unfortunately some hate will come in through that and it makes me very sad (but not surprised) that his ‘no’ campaign has the potential to set this country back a long long way.’
    ———————————
    Dutton’s gameplan is to cast Indigenous people as (a) criminals or (b) people who need to be saved from dying. The point is that both these conditions disqualify them from needing a Voice. Incidentally, the point is to paint Albanese as a heartless bastard who could not care that babies are dying and women are being hospitalized. The point? To prove that the Voice should not be the priority and Albanese is indulging in a vanity project.

    There is absolutely no doubt that lifting the liquor restrictions caused mayhem in Alice Springs. Price was heartily and loudly against it and she was right from the getgo. She knew. A lot of Indigenous women were in hospital as a direct result of domestic violence. There was also a lot of street crime. Having lived under similar conditions I can tell you that skulking at home after about 8 o’clock at night because going for a walk means you are likely to encounter shouting, staggering and perhaps worse is no bloody fun at all. It is mostly perceived but it is there as a rotten feeling. At the same time there are plenty of positive things happening in Alice that never, ever get an airing in the MSM.

    I predicted something similar to this when the original hundreds of millions were cut under Abbott. The dynamic is that this pushed people out of the homeland centres into towns like Alice. These folk were displaced. They had little or no prospect of jobs. Their western education type skills were low. Further, they were in someone else’s country. Heightened levels of drinking and violence are a direct result.

    In all the large regional towns with significant Indigenous populations there are active right wing social media groups that amplify everything bad and ignore everything good. There is an incidence of vigilante type behaviours. I can’t say whether that is an increasing trend. There are demands for zero tolerance, etc, etc, etc.

    What Dutton is doing is feeding all this in order to feed the No vote and save his miserable political skin.

    He talks unity but he feeds division. He is that sort of Nasty Party Mean Bastard. It rather looks as if he is going to fail in his quest to talk with elders to demonstrate that he is listening to them. They will listen politely and then tell anyone who will listen that they disagree with him.

    This is why he is down to talking with shoppers. It already looks like a failure.

  49. wranslidesays:
    Wednesday, April 12, 2023 at 9:13 pm

    Anyway, my view is that Dutton knows the voice will make or break his leadership. His tactics now are to generate fear and uncertainty and unfortunately some hate will come in through that and it makes me very sad (but not surprised) that his ‘no’ campaign has the potential to set this country back a long long way.
    ———————–
    I don’t think Dutton’s opposition to the voice will hold much sway in the ultimate outcome of it and regardless of the outcome will add further problems for the LNP to attract an election winning majority of voters. If Dutton survives as leader at the next election I’d be surprised if they win more than 50 seats.

    Labor, teals and other centrist independents are fast becoming the home of small l liberals and Dutton is just accelerating this process.

  50. Imagine someone is walking down the street and just casually dropping rubbish on the ground as they do so. When people ask them to stop, they say, “Just walk around it if it bothers you.” That’s what it reminds me of whenever I see the “just scroll past it” argument being used.

    It’s a reasonable solution when there’s only the occasional post to scroll through, but not so much when you are scrolling more than you are actually reading. At that point, not only is there little enjoyment to be had from this place, but it becomes easy to miss the actual worthwhile posts in among the dross, and the logical next step is to just close the browser and find better things to do with your time.

    Sure, there’s AR’s plugin, but as blissful as it is to visit this place with its worst offenders blocked, it also tends to render the actual conversation a bit incomprehensible at times. You can lose crucial context and misunderstand what is actually being discussed.

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