James Massola of the Age/Herald reports that “expectations (are) growing that former Prime Minister Scott Morrison will quit politics”, probably between the May budget and the end of the year, entailing a by-election for his seat of Cook. Please let it be so, because a valley of death stretches before those of us in the election industry out to the second half of next year, to be followed by a flood encompassing the Northern Territory on August 24, the Australian Capital Territory on October 19, Queensland on October 26 and Western Australia on March 8 the following year (UPDATE: It’s noted that the Queensland local government elections next March, inclusive as they are of the unusually significant Brisbane City Council and lord mayoralty, should rate a mention). A normal federal election for the House of Representatives and half the Senate could happen in the second half of 2024 or the first of 2025, the alternative of a double dissolution being presumably unlikely.
Redistributions will offer some diversion in the interim, particularly after the Electoral Commissioner calculates how many House of Representatives seats each state is entitled to in the next parliament on June 27. This is likely to result in Western Australia gaining a seat and New South Wales and Victoria each losing one (respectively putting them at 16, 46 and 38), initiating redistribution processes that are likely to take around a year. There is also an outside chance that Queensland will gain a thirty-first seat. The Northern Territory will also have a redistribution on grounds of it having been seven years since one was last conducted, although this will involve either a minimal tweak to the boundary between Solomon and Lingiari or no change at all. At state level, a redistribution process was recently initiated in Western Australia and should conclude near the end of the year. The other state that conducts a redistribution every term, South Australia, gives its boundaries commission wide latitude on when it gets the ball rolling, but past experience suggests it’s likely to be near the end of the year.
However, the main electoral event of the foreseeable future is undoubtedly the Indigenous Voice referendum, which is likely to be held between October and December. Kevin Bonham has a post on polling for referendum in which he standardises the various results, which differ markedly in terms of their questions and response structures, and divines a fall in support from around 65% in the middle of last year to around 58% at present. For those of you with access to academic journals, there is also a paper by Murray Goot of Macquarie University in the Journal of Australian Studies entitled “Support in the Polls for an Indigenous Constitutional Voice: How Broad, How Strong, How Vulnerable?” In narrowing it down to credible polls with non-binary response options (i.e. those allowing for uncommitted responses of some kind, as distinct from forced response polls), Goot finds support has fallen from around 58% to 51% from the period of May to September to the period of October to January, while opposition had risen from 18% to 27%. The change was concentrated among Coalition supporters: whereas Labor and especially Greens supporters were consistently and strongly in favour, support among Coalition fell from around 45% to 36%.
Forced response questions consistently found between 60% and 65% in favour regardless of question wording, while non-binary polls (i.e. allowing for various kind of uncommitted response) have almost invariably had at over 50%. Goot notes that forced response polls have found respondents breaking between for and against in similar proportion to the rest, which “confounds the idea that, when push comes to shove, ‘undecided’ voters will necessarily vote no”. However, he also notes that questions in non-binary polls that have produced active majorities in favour have either mentioned an Indigenous Voice or the Uluru Statement from the Heart, or “rehearsed the Prime Minister’s proposal to amend the Constitution”. One that conspicuously did not do any of these things was a Dynata poll for the Institute of Public Affairs, which got a positive result of just 28% by priming respondents with a leading question and then emphasised that the proposal would involve “laws for every Australian”. JWS Research got only 43% in favour and 23% against, but its response structure was faulted by Goot for including a “need more information” option, which ruled the 20% who chose it out of contention one way or the other.
Dog’s Brunch:
I wish everyone here used an avatar. It makes it so much easier to seperate the stuff you want to read from the stuff you don’t.
Asha says:
Wednesday, April 12, 2023 at 9:37 pm
Dog’s Brunch:
Steve 777, like you I get my Everest worth of scrolling when the monkeys are locked in a room throwing excrement but, I appreciate that most , if not all contributors are interesting and cast a very wide net over the topics you mention and more.
Indeed, on days when time is short and I’m 5 or 6 pages behind on my blog reading it is easy to skip nearly whole pages as the presence of certain avatars were plainly seen even when they wizz by as you scroll.
I wish everyone here used an avatar. It makes it so much easier to seperate the stuff you want to read from the stuff you don’t.
……………………………………………………………………………………………………………………..
98.6 says :
I agree with all of that.
”
Enough Alreadysays:
Wednesday, April 12, 2023 at 9:27 pm
aaron newton @ Wednesday, April 12, 2023 at 8:38 pm:
“[The Ukraine] war is not front of mind for most of us hear any way…”
=================
Aaron, you have put your finger exactly on why I’ve been posting as much and as single-mindedly as I have. If this invasion slips off enough people’s radar, Putin finds it easier to get away with his crimes with less international outrage and hence opposition. Still, I accept I’ve outstayed my welcome here, so rest assured you’ll all get less Ukraine here.
”
Did you notice the reaction of people in continents such as Asia, Africa and South America?
Only America’s close friends react to some extent.
Did you watch the YouTube view I posted regarding the decision to allow into NATO?
The C4 is just another car. The DS now that was a car. The last that was special was the xantia. Lost it with the C5.
Fair enough MJ. But Dutton legitimises the hate campaign will come. That is his role now. Is that enough to carry him to victory noting the requirements for constitutional amendment.
Enough Already
I follow the war with great interest as I think it an historic event with far reaching consequences, but i don’t read your posts, too many small events. The Russian military behave badly is not news.
In my view Ukraine will win this war, the consequences are enormous. Insights into how Ukraine will win, when they will win, how Ukraine will rebuild, will Ukraine be let into NATO, will Ukraine be let into the common market, and the consequences for Russia, that is what is interesting.
Yabba – Sounds like you still have questions to answer!
https://theconversation.com/fact-check-are-diesel-cars-really-more-polluting-than-petrol-cars-76241
My own view is Dutton has like it or not, set himself up as the default national leader of the No campaign and has already shat the bed on this. Basically he looks like he’s not really listened to anybody. I think the onus was already going to be on the No case, which is slightlly different to many referenda, but a bit like the SSM vote… the assumed ‘national’ position was Yes, and No were the ones with the case to make.
The CORE No argument against this “it doesn’t help people on the ground, it’s a bureaucratic fix ” etc etc… is kind of undone by the sucking void in response to the question “well, Mr Dutton… if you think there isn’t enough being done… what are you proposing to do about it? and how will you engage Indigenous people on the policy and programs directly impacting them and their communities?”.
As this point, I do expect Yes to win, and I do think it’ll get up in all six states (but pretty confident about 4/6) but the national margin may end up pretty middling in the end.
Dutton has made a remarkable “choice” – if No gets up, likely due to the 4/6 states threshold not being met – despite a a national Yes vote… he and the Liberals will be fucked in those suburban seats they actually need to win back. If Yes gets up, he’ll look like he’s stood in the way of progress and it will be a millstone around his and the party’s necks.
frednk @ #955 Wednesday, April 12th, 2023 – 10:03 pm
I have owned D Special (DS) manual, DS 2.5 fuel injected manual, CX 5 speed manual, BX 16 valve manual, Xantia Activa 5 speed, C5 petrol auto, C5 turbo diesel auto sedan and C5 turbo diesel auto wagon (all hydraulic susp), before the current two Picasso turbo diesels. My favourites were DS2.5, BX 16 valve and Xantia Activa (amazing handling), although the C5 Turbo diesels were also lovely cars. I have never been stopped on the road with a hydraulic suspension fault.
The Picasso is eminently practical, and relaxing to drive, and it has very well controlled roll oversteer, which means it can corner ridiculously fast. Fun to suck in twin cab bull bar idiots. The ability to stick it in cruise control and proceed at a rapid rate up hill and down dale on the M1 to Sydney, while getting 5.5 l/100km, is pleasing.
south says:
Wednesday, April 12, 2023 at 8:06 pm
Dutton may not know it, but the LNP has lost the next election with this shit.
If he’d just gone along with the voice the campaign at the next election wouldn’t be on this issue. What a f–king tool.
……………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………..
98.6 says :
I tend to agree. If Dutton had said ‘yes’ or he said the libs would not contest the Voice, it would look neutral for them and Dutton could concentrate on saying ‘no’ to a lot of other shit.
However, depending on the outcome of the referendum and especially the timing of the next fed election, I’m not predicting the outcome of that election based on what Dutton has chosen to do here.
98.6,
It’s the vibes. You want to be voting for the people who’ll build up the community.
Thats not Dutton.
The question is, will the Voice referendum be more like that for the Republic, or more like the (non-) referendum for Marriage Equality.
Lars Von Trier @ #958 Wednesday, April 12th, 2023 – 10:19 pm
Ford, Citroen, Volvo, Peugeot 2 litre turbo diesels, which are all made in the same factory, and are essentially identical, have always been filled with effective particulate filters and catalytic converters. Fuel additive reservoirs have been fitted to them since 1998, and these require replenishing at around 160,000 km, at a cost of $170 or so. They pass all European and USA pollution control standards. My cars emit no visible exhaust whatsoever.
Continuous stop start, and multiple short journeys when the engine never gets hot, render catalytic converters ineffective on both diesel and petrol cars.
Mostly Interested:
Wednesday, April 12, 2023 at 3:36 pm
Mavis @ #749 Wednesday, April 12th, 2023 – 1:47 pm
[‘Any link to it? My googlefu keeps failing and trying to get me to watch Ken Burns (probably amazing) series on the American west.’]
Here’s a link, MI:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PVBLtmfcfno&t=1351s
That’s the $64 question steve777.
Still a long way to run on this one although first opinion poll post Duttons announcement should be v.interesting.
That video of Dutton encapsulates the peak of the ‘No’ campaign.
I have faith that a majority of Australians in a majority of States once presented with the Yes case will turn their back to fear and embrace the idea that this is a gift that is to be given with an open heart.
@LVT – Morgan says a 1.5% swing away from the Coalition since the announcement.
Dutton has dealt himself out of the game. He genuinely thinks the majority of the population are as mean spirited as he is. Eventually the people will wake up – and come back to the fold.
If the referendum fails, the seats he needs to win to form government are the very seats that will see him as the wrecker. The rednecks and the racists were always going to vote for him.
Many bloggers have been talking about how many litres per 100 ks they get out of their cars and what they have under the bonnet V6 or V8 , whether its turbo or diesel, 0 to 100 in X seconds etc. etc.
They are obviously enthusiasts for that sort of thing and they get a lot of pleasure out of it.
I’m different, in that I go for a look or a style in a car that I like and I’ve never asked or worried about what is under the bonnet or what L/100k it gets.
I rarely go for a test drive either as I’m sure any new car would pass that test these days.
Most of the new cars I’ve bought I’ve made my mind up well before I walk into the showroom solely on what they look like.
Going to be interesting steve777 but some important differences, The last 2 had a Govt position that was, at most charitable, actively ambivalent on the proposals. With the republic I would go so far as they actively encouraged the No camp with the question/wording.
This will be different, closer to the SSM from a grass roots level but with State and Fed Govt in favour. Only the cookers and potato against.
If the Yes gets up it will put aside the “referendums need bipartisanship to succeed” convention, much like the “byelections always swing to oppositions”.
For the record, I posted on Tuesday, April 11, 2023 at 6:14 pm.
My next post was on Wednesday, April 12, 2023 at 5:44 pm – nearly 24 hours later. During that time, there were 509 posts, none of them from me.
Including that one at 5:44pm, I posted 18 comments over the next two and a half hours until 8:18 pm, out of a total of 80 comments during that time. That was a period of relatively intensive posting from me, but was still less than 1 in every 4 posts.
Overall, I contributed only 3.05% of all posts on this blog from 6:15pm yesterday to 8:18pm this evening. That is only 1 post in every 33 or so.
Sprocket then declared this to be “dominating” the blog, and William more or less agreed.
I don’t agree. Still, I’ve been reprimanded by too many on this blog to feel confident I have stayed within bounds.
So, back to my sound rule from earlier this year: don’t diss other posters here. And keep to a stricter limit for posts on Ukraine. I’ll aim to keep it down to 6 a day.
What if the Voice Referendum and the Cook byelection occur on the same day? That would be rather exciting and potentially even more disasterous for Dutton’s leadership.
I doubt Labor could win Cook, but a well resourced Teal independent with a big community profile in the area might.
I doubt party numbers in polling will be impacted by this – Dutton’s personal standing? Maybe.
NFW Labor wins Cook – but they definitely need to run to maximise primary vote siphoning.
People have short memories !
If the Voice passes with a “yes’ vote in OCT or NOV of this year 2023 and the next fed election isn’t held till May 2025, Dutton or his replacement, will have one and a half years to have voters forget about the libs ‘NO’ vote on the Voice.
Most of us bloggers see Dutton as a loser at the moment, in the same way most of us saw Berejiklian as a loser when she resigned just before her grilling before ICAC.
If the NSW state election was held during the ICAC interrogation of Berejiklian, Chris Minns and Labor would have won 80 seats but it was held one and a half years later and voters had forgotten about it because ICAC had not delivered its verdict and Labor did not want to go negative campaigning.
So Dutton has time on his side and I can guarantee you that we won’t be talking about the Voice, win or lose, in May 25 just as no one talked about Berejiklian during the state election campaign.
98.6,
If the voice vote is carried, then Dutton would logically have to campaign hard in parliament to shape it’s eventual composition. Much racism and unsightliness will follow along with vows to reform it.
The voice will haunt the liberals. Rather than ignoring it, they will now have to deal with it like an adversary.
Duttons definitely against the drift!
Apart from that meant to say to all, hello, I’m still here, always lurking!
Hope you all are enjoying good health, and that’s for everyone!
* Multiple edits
Re Avatars Asha
I’ve tried to put one up, sites not too user friendly for that, any help would be appreciated.
Cheers all, bed time!
Just woke up after a half day on the piss following a directive to self to give myself the same length of Easter holidays off work this year as school kids get- for once in a long time since I was domiciled with the former task master I’m finally enjoying more than 4 days off work.
Enough already:
You are heading down a slippery slope indeed. It’s one thing to Piss off the man with the big stick by deviating from his preferred topics of thread narratives, it’s another all together to call us attention to your dramatics.
If I’ve learnt anything about William it’s that you can expect the unexpected if you decide to pull the chord and cry for his intervention.
He continually and frequently reminds the cohort of his fairly reasonable rules and directives regarding sub-thread dialogues and topics. He is tolerant of measured and limited levels of personal abuse and name calling if warranted in the context of a particular discussion- in much the same spirit of a house of reps or bear pit debate.
Enough already , if you can’t do any of that then at least prove your worth with the occasional drop of credible gossip and/ or comic relief for WB as I do.
Fumbles: ‘If the Yes gets up it will put aside the “referendums need bipartisanship to succeed” convention, much like the “byelections always swing to oppositions”.’
And “Australians never vote out first-term governments”.
Conventional wisdom in political commentary. Until it wasn’t.
Evan @ #971 Wednesday, April 12th, 2023 – 11:08 pm
Simon Earle is best placed to run again in Cook. If he wants to. He has name recognition and is a well-known and well-liked member of the local community. Attributes that are very important in Australian politics these days. Plus he runs an SME, so gets a tick for that in that area.
Been There,
Re avatars:
Here is what you need to do:
1. Set Up a WordPress Account. Go to WordPress.com and create an account. …
2. Register With Gravatar. Next, head over to the Gravatar homepage and click on the “Sign In” button. …
3. Complete Your Registration. …
4. Set an Image. …
5. Choose a Personality. …
6. Complete Your Profile.
or
How do I upload an avatar to WordPress without Gravatar?
Simply go to Users » Profile page. From here, you can upload an image from your computer or use one from the media library. Don’t forget to click on the Update Profile button to save your changes. WordPress will now use custom profile photos instead of Gravatars.
26 June 2022
China backtracks over no-fly zone near Taiwan
Beijing reduces planned three-day closure that coincided with G7 summit in Japan to just 27 minutes
China backtracked on Wednesday over plans to block some of the world’s busiest airspace near Taiwan, in a rare move that caused confusion over Beijing’s handling of its stand-off with Taipei and Washington.
The Chinese government had notified Taiwan and several other countries on Tuesday that it would impose the no-fly zone between April 16 and 18 in a location 85 nautical miles (157km) north of Taiwan to conduct “aerospace activities”, a phrase Taiwan’s defence ministry said might refer to a satellite launch.
That window of time would have coincided with the G7 foreign ministers’ meeting in Nagano, Japan, which starts on April 16. US secretary of state Antony Blinken would have needed to travel through the no-fly zone to reach the summit from Vietnam, which he is due to visit this weekend.
On Wednesday afternoon, however, Taipei said Beijing had shortened the duration of the airspace closure to just 27 minutes from 9.30am to 9.57am on Sunday following fierce resistance from Taiwan.
“Closing this chunk of airspace for three full days is absolutely unprecedented,” said a senior Taiwanese government official.
China’s original plan was perceived as a sharp escalation of tensions, coming on the heels of three days of military manoeuvres around Taiwan aimed at punishing the country for a meeting between its president Tsai Ing-wen and US House Speaker Kevin McCarthy in California last week.
https://www.ft.com/content/ea16f9af-1687-4661-81ea-fd9eb6e09b3d
All this speculation regarding the political future of Matt Kean ignores the reality.
The reality is that he managed a 11.07% swim against him in Hornsby.
Hornsby overlaps both Berowra & Bradfield, where the incumbents Leeser & Fletcher both recorded swings against the Liberal Party of 5.35% & 12.2% respectively.
They-re not going anywhere in the short time and Kean won’t be crossing from the northern suburbs of Sydney to the far southern suburbs to be the candidate for Cook.
Mostly Interested @ 1.02pm
Yes, there is someone more pointless than an ex-pollie.
As pronounced by one PJ Keating, “There is nothing more ex, than an ex-PM”.
Sage advice which he regularly ignores.
https://www.smh.com.au/world/north-america/us-judge-hits-fox-news-with-sanction-for-withholding-defamation-case-evidence-20230413-p5d01b.html
This evidence included recordings made by a former Fox employee of Rudy Giuliani, a lawyer for former President Donald Trump, saying before pre-taped Fox appearances that he did not have any evidence to back up the false allegations of election-rigging by Dominion in the 2020 race that are at the heart of the lawsuit.
The pending hearing has every likelihood of seeing the end of Rupert’s & Lachlan’s stewardship of News & Fox, losing to Dominion would hurt, the prospect of punitive damages is the sleeper.
Lachlan should quit his case against Crikey & pay their costs… the game is up
yes but duttons campaign on demestic violents in indiginis communities is raceist he did not seem to interested in addressing aleged abuse in parliament house allthough the dpp semingly did not have the courige toprosecute wonder how the trial in teromber is going the media is still not allowed to report on this dutton does not seem to cair about other forms of abuse like the former cardinals cover up of chield abuse
this is the same argument dutton usis to justify aposing the apolagie rudd gave he regrets walking out because of opdicks but imo believes the apoligie was a waist of time just because he asays he regrets it does not mean he is genuwin jacinta price was on the cowncil so her ranting about demestick violents is hard to take seriously in her former position she could have acgtualy tried to solve the problim then attack her own community and use this ishue as a platform for her own politicial corear on sky and 2gb how will she solve it or does she want to use this for politicial advantige the cashlis card just restricted money it did not solve the under luying ishues i dont know much about this subject living in penrith so duton living in brisbaine thinks he knows about indiginis affairs from tqalking to price and mundine and little
leftieBrawler @ Thursday, April 13, 2023 at 1:40 am:
“If I’ve learnt anything about William it’s that you can expect the unexpected if you decide to pull the chord and cry for his intervention.”
============================
leftieBrawler, yes, I shouldn’t have let nath’s gibes about decapitation get to me like they did. I’ve seen enough of nath here to have known better.
even ley story about the family left behind in alice springs that that senater bought to the tv she said local leaders had not acted but for at least one of those two years her party was in power and did nothing about this ishue maybi the nt government should sack the clp dominated local cowncil
From today’s Age
https://www.theage.com.au/national/victoria/threats-harassment-of-cafe-owner-sees-drag-event-for-children-cancelled-20230412-p5czup.html
We are seeing in local libraries increasing unpleasant attention and harassment from groups such as MyPlace which are very active in Frankston near where I work.
Has anyone else had experiences from these fringe groups?
My thoughts are not to give these people any oxygen but also we need to call them out.
“ A senior Conservative peer has urged Rishi Sunak to distance the party from Suella Braverman’s “racist rhetoric” or risk ruining his legacy as the first Asian prime minister.
Sayeeda Warsi, the first Asian person to chair the Tory party, said Braverman’s ethnic origin has “shielded her from criticism for too long”, claiming Conservatives had been “hesitant to hold an ethnic minority MP to account in the same way they would a white MP”.
Lady Warsi said it was time for the party to realise that “black and brown people can be racist too”, adding how “painfully disappointing” it had been to hear the home secretary single out British-Pakistani men as being of special concern in relation to child sexual cases, as part of the most diverse cabinet in history.”
This is a brave but important position for Warsi to take against Braverman whose rhetoric has been straight out of the Dutton handbook on Africans in Melbourne.
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2023/apr/12/tory-peer-warsi-accuses-suella-braverman-racist-rhetoric-grooming-gangs
dave says:
Thursday, April 13, 2023 at 6:03 am
China backtracks over no-fly zone near Taiwan
Blinken could’ve flown around the zone (annoying though that would be) in the same way Albo avoided Chinese airspace on a recent flight. Some interesting pressure must’ve been placed on a belligerent China who were happy to surround Taiwan in a recent exercise just recently but not to continue their intended no-fly zone.
Cronus @ Thursday, April 13, 2023 at 6:57 am:
“Lady Warsi said it was time for the party to realise that “black and brown people can be racist too”, adding how “painfully disappointing” it had been to hear the home secretary single out British-Pakistani men as being of special concern in relation to child sexual cases, as part of the most diverse cabinet in history.”
This is a brave but important position for Warsi to take against Braverman whose rhetoric has been straight out of the Dutton handbook on Africans in Melbourne.”
========================
Cronus, Braverman’s sexualisation of ethnic minorities to imply they deserve especially adverse treatment by the government also looks very similar to Dutton’s language most times he talks about the way Australian governments either have, are or should treat indigenous Australians. I had just thought this was a personal peculiarity of his. Now it looks more like an intentional, coordinated messaging strategy by the Right when discussing the redressing of past and ongoing injustices towards First Nations, or non-White immigrant, communities. The Right probably sees it as having the added ‘benefit’ of dispersing popular repugnance at sexual abuse within religious institutions in another direction which is more palatable to them.
#weatheronPB
Deep blue emptiness.
Only a mind to fill it.
No limits in sight.
Justin Jones and Justin Pearson, the two African American Democrat Reps expelled by the Tennessee House have been reinstated. It doesn’t take much to read between the lines as to the reasons why they were reinstated.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/nation/2023/04/12/black-democratic-legislators-reinstated-tennessee/
Good morning, all.
6
sort of sunny
Delaware Superior Court Judge Eric Davis on Wednesday sanctioned Fox News and its parent company, Fox Corp., for withholding evidence in the Dominion defamation suit, and said he’s considering further investigation and censure.
According to a person present in the courtroom, lawyers for Dominion Voting Systems played recordings Fox News producer Abby Grossberg made during 2020, which were not handed over to Dominion’s lawyers during discovery.
Grossberg, a former producer for Fox hosts Maria Bartiromo and Tucker Carlson, has sued Fox News and said her deposition was coerced. In an amended filing Tuesday, she said she had recorded conversations with Rudy Giuliani, Sidney Powell and others. The sanction gives Dominion a chance to conduct another deposition, at Fox’s expense.
https://www.nbcnews.com/media/fox-sanctioned-withholding-evidence-dominion-case-rcna79377
Credlin advises Dutton to unleash Price and to step on some Coalition toes.
If he really needs the latter he should unleash Credlin.
Mavis @ #964 Wednesday, April 12th, 2023 – 10:47 pm
Thank you Mavis