Miscellany: redistributions, referendums and by-elections (open thread)

A review to what the electoral calendar holds between now and the next general elections in the second half of next year, including prospects for the Indigenous Voice referendum.

James Massola of the Age/Herald reports that “expectations (are) growing that former Prime Minister Scott Morrison will quit politics”, probably between the May budget and the end of the year, entailing a by-election for his seat of Cook. Please let it be so, because a valley of death stretches before those of us in the election industry out to the second half of next year, to be followed by a flood encompassing the Northern Territory on August 24, the Australian Capital Territory on October 19, Queensland on October 26 and Western Australia on March 8 the following year (UPDATE: It’s noted that the Queensland local government elections next March, inclusive as they are of the unusually significant Brisbane City Council and lord mayoralty, should rate a mention). A normal federal election for the House of Representatives and half the Senate could happen in the second half of 2024 or the first of 2025, the alternative of a double dissolution being presumably unlikely.

Redistributions will offer some diversion in the interim, particularly after the Electoral Commissioner calculates how many House of Representatives seats each state is entitled to in the next parliament on June 27. This is likely to result in Western Australia gaining a seat and New South Wales and Victoria each losing one (respectively putting them at 16, 46 and 38), initiating redistribution processes that are likely to take around a year. There is also an outside chance that Queensland will gain a thirty-first seat. The Northern Territory will also have a redistribution on grounds of it having been seven years since one was last conducted, although this will involve either a minimal tweak to the boundary between Solomon and Lingiari or no change at all. At state level, a redistribution process was recently initiated in Western Australia and should conclude near the end of the year. The other state that conducts a redistribution every term, South Australia, gives its boundaries commission wide latitude on when it gets the ball rolling, but past experience suggests it’s likely to be near the end of the year.

However, the main electoral event of the foreseeable future is undoubtedly the Indigenous Voice referendum, which is likely to be held between October and December. Kevin Bonham has a post on polling for referendum in which he standardises the various results, which differ markedly in terms of their questions and response structures, and divines a fall in support from around 65% in the middle of last year to around 58% at present. For those of you with access to academic journals, there is also a paper by Murray Goot of Macquarie University in the Journal of Australian Studies entitled “Support in the Polls for an Indigenous Constitutional Voice: How Broad, How Strong, How Vulnerable?” In narrowing it down to credible polls with non-binary response options (i.e. those allowing for uncommitted responses of some kind, as distinct from forced response polls), Goot finds support has fallen from around 58% to 51% from the period of May to September to the period of October to January, while opposition had risen from 18% to 27%. The change was concentrated among Coalition supporters: whereas Labor and especially Greens supporters were consistently and strongly in favour, support among Coalition fell from around 45% to 36%.

Forced response questions consistently found between 60% and 65% in favour regardless of question wording, while non-binary polls (i.e. allowing for various kind of uncommitted response) have almost invariably had at over 50%. Goot notes that forced response polls have found respondents breaking between for and against in similar proportion to the rest, which “confounds the idea that, when push comes to shove, ‘undecided’ voters will necessarily vote no”. However, he also notes that questions in non-binary polls that have produced active majorities in favour have either mentioned an Indigenous Voice or the Uluru Statement from the Heart, or “rehearsed the Prime Minister’s proposal to amend the Constitution”. One that conspicuously did not do any of these things was a Dynata poll for the Institute of Public Affairs, which got a positive result of just 28% by priming respondents with a leading question and then emphasised that the proposal would involve “laws for every Australian”. JWS Research got only 43% in favour and 23% against, but its response structure was faulted by Goot for including a “need more information” option, which ruled the 20% who chose it out of contention one way or the other.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,748 comments on “Miscellany: redistributions, referendums and by-elections (open thread)”

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  1. Speaking of the upcoming budget, whilst many will be begging for extra funding, University STEM courses desperately need it.
    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2023/apr/12/australian-university-reforms-to-incentivise-stem-degrees-over-arts-have-dismally-failed-peak-bodies-say

    Morrison changed the fees and made a big announcement about encouraging more STEM students with lower fees and more places, against higher arts fees. What he failed to mention was that the increase in places was effectively unfunded so that overall Federal government funding of Australian students has dropped from 58% of total cost to 52%. STEM courses are costly to run with labs and equipment so this has been a disaster.

    An Adelaide engineering academic colleague on a professional committee I sit on has had to resign this year. His teaching student workload has doubled, and he cannot cope. Our Uni system is stuffed after ten years of LNP “reforms”.

  2. The Liberal Party seems to have decided that it can emulate the Republicans in the USA and take votes off Labor (c.f. Democrats) among the less advantaged and less educated, in particular among “old” (white) Australians. Flip former Labor heartland seats in Western Sydney, Western Melbourne and outer suburbs and regions elsewhere.

    It relies upon the exploitation of the discontent from those who have done poorly from the economic changes of the last few decades, providing convenient scapegoats on which they can vent their anger – various out-groups – but not the real beneficiaries of these changes.

    They also seem to be betting on the Labor Government slipping up. In the event of any stuff-up or scandal, they and their media allies will quickly go into full attack mode.

    In the meantime, maybe the Liberals are hoping that greed and tax cuts will help them keep or regain their seats in their affluent former heartland.

  3. Enough Already says:
    Thursday, April 13, 2023 at 9:51 am

    Snappy Tom @ Thursday, April 13, 2023 at 9:44 am:

    “The Uniting Church’s national leadership released this pro-Voice statement Feb this year…

    https://uniting.church/supporting-the-voice/”
    ====================

    ST, it is to Peter Dutton’s deep shame he simply cannot accept Rev Hollis’s simple proposition that the VTP is “a moral and theological issue, not a political one.”

    Dutton is trying to frame this as a party political bun fight. Shame on him for using the rights and dignity of First Nations Australians for such cynical political ends.
    ____________

    Of course, as much as the Uniting Church’s leadership supports the Voice, there is often a disconnect between the national leadership and many congregation members.

    A friend who does political research and is a Uniting Church member once told me that any basically polling ever done to compare “church members” with “the general population” finds “church members” skew to the Right of the “general population”.

    …and here was I thinking the church was founded as a subversive, change movement by a wandering prophetic leader…


  4. Mostly Interestedsays:
    Thursday, April 13, 2023 at 9:40 am
    Ven @ #1042 Thursday, April 13th, 2023 – 9:32 am


    There is a huge difference between the problem Robert Menzies faced in creating the Liberal Party from the ruins of the United Australia Party during the second World War, and that facing Peter Dutton as he tries to unify the Liberal Party after its succession of defeats at federal and state levels in the past year or so, explains David Solomon.
    https://johnmenadue.com/menzies-dutton-and-the-liberal-party/

    “There is a huge difference between the problem Robert Menzies faced in creating the Liberal Party from the ruins of the United Australia Party during the second World War, and that facing Peter Dutton as he tries to unify the Liberal Party after its succession of defeats at federal and state levels in the past year or so,”
    And that is
    1. White Australia policy is no longer inforce(As Paul Keating once said Australia was lucky not to be ostracized and sanctioned like South Africa when White Australia policy was inforce. I digress)
    2. Australia has formal and close diplomatic and trade ties with many Asian countries.
    3. A good percentage of people are not of British heritage.
    4. Monarchy doesn’t hold fond memories for many Australians.

    I followed a few links after reading Spear’s article on the ABC site and found myself reading Gareth Hutchens’ piece on why he thinks voters are abandoning the Liberal party. . In short they have not evolved as a political entity as Australian society has evolved, and in fact have gone backwards to a “golden time” that is simply out of step with who we are as a nation today.

    Gareth Hutchens actually ariges that PD’s Liberal party has not gone back to Menzies’s vision of the Liberal Party. He suggests today’s Libs are diametrically opposite what Menzies was trying to do, that is not build a reactionary party that says no to everything.,

    You may see yourself as liberal, but if some voters think you’re an unreconstructed reactionary they’ll treat you as such at the ballot box.

    He goes on to wargame what a new conservative party might look like.

    https://www.abc.net.au/news/2023-04-09/liberal-party-election-loss-menzies-liberalism-keynes-hayek/102201242

    As ex-Liberal NSW MLC Catherine Cusack said Federal Liberal party is led by a Nationals party member.

  5. Andrew_Earlwood Thursday, April 13, 2023 at 9:08 am

    “Morrison is an alumni out of the property council of NSW. he could easily get a lucrative gig for some developer industry based entity I suspect. I also suspect that he ain’t short of a coin. So: I think he wants something post politics that befits his messiah complex. That’s why he is still skulking in parliament, IMO (either that or a hope that Dutton so implodes that he can convince the party that he should once again be anointed Prophet and Leader).”

    Morrison has a work history that was and smells like “dogshit”.
    Morrison would be out of Parliament if the “gigs” were forthcoming.
    Morrison would have more “coin’ than most but I seem to remember mention of a mortgage.
    Morrison is not old enough to draw on his super.
    Morrison lives in an okay house for residents of in and around ‘millionaires’ road in Burraneer Bay and Dolans Bay in the Pt. Hacking area.
    You need to own outright a ‘millionaires” road property in the area to have “made it’. (upwards of 15mill, Morrison doesn’t)
    A Millionaires’ road property, from the “road to the water ‘ is what he would like.
    Turnbull’s house on the harbour would make Morrison’s cheeks turn “rose pink” at the thought.
    Andrew, stick to what you purport to know about !

  6. The Catholic Church on the Voice:

    ” Future generations of Australians will not forgive us if we fail to grasp the historical moment, and ‘advance Australia’ further along the path of justice.”

    The letter is signed by Catholic, Uniting and Anglican churches, the Australian National Council of Imams and the Executive Council of Australian Jewry…

    The Catholic Church has previously endorsed the Uluru Statement From the Heart and made an historic commitment to back indigenous leaders demanding a constitutional voice.”

    https://catholicleader.com.au/

  7. Snappy Tom @ Thursday, April 13, 2023 at 10:05 am:

    “A friend who does political research and is a Uniting Church member once told me that any basically polling ever done to compare “church members” with “the general population” finds “church members” skew to the Right of the “general population”.

    …and here was I thinking the church was founded as a subversive, change movement by a wandering prophetic leader…”
    ======================

    ST, a leader can choose where, why and even (in the case of the leader of whom you speak) who they will lead. But no leader can choose why their followers choose to follow them.

    Edit: personal example. My dad was a Methodist, but chose to follow my mum into the Anglican Church, rather than the Methodists into the Uniting Church.

  8. Murdoch hack Morrow inadvertently acknowledges that Dutton has become so obsessed with “no” that the opposition is failing in the traditional role of holding a government accountable for its actions. Albo can hardly believe his luck.

    Voice circus lets Albo off the hook on punishing cost of living hikes
    Anthony Albanese is using celebrity endorsements as a distraction from the real dangers of his proposed voice to parliament. Peter Dutton must call him on this as well as hip pocket pain. (DT headline)

  9. Ven
    On the day that Menzies became Prime Minister in 1939, his broadcast to the nation included:
    What Britain calls the Far East is to us the Near North. I have become convinced that in the Pacific Australia must regard herself as a principal providing herself with her own information and maintaining her own diplomatic contacts with foreign powers. With this in mind I look for ward to the day when we will have a concert of Pacific powers, “pacific” in both senses of the word. This means increased diplomatic contact between ourselves and the United States, China and Japan, to say nothing of the Netherland East Indies and the other countries which fringe the Pacific

    Menzies was not an isolationist or purely a “little Britainer”.

    A simplified version of historian David Walker’ argument is that most Australian Prime Ministers since Menzies’ first term and, indeed, since the Indiaphile Deakin have “discovered Asia” and called for closer links. Despite this the current rhetoric has the same Yellow Peril quality that it had in the 1850s.

  10. So I am getting the impression that almost all mainstream non-political organisations support a Voice to Parliament except those specifically catering to “reactionary” groups and Dutton is aligning himself exclusively with an “unholy coalition of the unenlightened” consisting of talkback radio, Sky News, One Nation (and worse) catering to the whims of conservative, angry, cis-gender, Anglo-Saxon white men.

    Sad.

  11. From The Guardian blog:

    The opposition leader, Peter Dutton, is in Alice Springs campaigning against the Indigenous voice to parliament, using the town’s issues of crime and dysfunction as a centrepiece of his approach to the issue focused on practical outcomes.

    But the Mayor of Alice Springs, Matt Patterson, does not believe the issues of crime in the town and the voice should be linked.

    Speaking to ABC Radio this morning Patterson said crime was still up and called for the Australian Federal Police.

    Asked if he believed the issues in Alice Springs should be used either by the ‘yes’ or the ‘no’ campaign, Patterson said:

    “No, I don’t think it should be linked. We have been facing this for a lot longer than the voice debate has been had. If people are linking with with the Voice, as soon as the referendum is over, they’re going to forget about Alice Springs. That’s not why we’re asking for help. We’re asking for help because we need change here, and we’ll need change a lot longer than when the referendum is held later this year.”

    Patterson said he has not made his mind up yet on how he will be voting in the referendum.

  12. After slugging hardworking Aussies with 10 consecutive rate rises and failing to curb inflation, Reserve Bank of Australia officials have finally admitted they “did a terrible job”.

    Speaking at a panel in Melbourne on Wednesday, Ian Harper, who has been a board member for seven years, conceded that after Covid hit, the central bank struggled to balance the need to keep inflation within its 2 to 3 per cent target and maintain stability in the financial system.

    “Both of those things led us to be extremely cautious. With hindsight, excessively cautious in how we set interest rates during that time,” he said, according to The Australian. He added that “with the benefit of hindsight … it looks like we did a terrible job”. “When you look backwards, often times you see things much more clearly than you do at the time,” he said.
    https://www.news.com.au/finance/economy/interest-rates/reserve-bank-of-australia-board-member-admits-terrible-error-after-interest-rates-fiasco/news-story/cfc39b688d75a45675f4da68c43295ff

  13. As much as the Uniting Church does so much good around the place, it’s average membership age is well in to their 70s and their numbers are rapidly dwindling. The dozen or so Uniting Churches in a 5km radius of my place simply won’t all exist as Uniting Churches in a few years time. I think the Catholic and Anglican places are going to be a few generations behind, as they have large numbers of schools to keep their congregation numbers up.

  14. Any views on how the 1976 referendum result might offer insights into how the voice referendum will go? The distance in time notwithstanding, the ninety percent yes vote indicates strong support for First Nations’ rights.

    Apologies if this has already been raised but it’s a long comments thread.

  15. A comment on the Guardian blog lists the names of coalition MPs who have met the Alice Springs baker. Popular place it seems.
    Once upon a time, they say, MPs would get their advice on local issues from taxi drivers.
    Now it’s at the local bread shop.
    Is there any evidence of Dutton meeting local elders?


  16. Oakeshott countrysays:
    Thursday, April 13, 2023 at 10:16 am
    Ven
    On the day that Menzies became Prime Minister in 1939, his broadcast to the nation included:
    What Britain calls the Far East is to us the Near North. I have become convinced that in the Pacific Australia must regard herself as a principal providing herself with her own information and maintaining her own diplomatic contacts with foreign powers. With this in mind I look for ward to the day when we will have a concert of Pacific powers, “pacific” in both senses of the word. This means increased diplomatic contact between ourselves and the United States, China and Japan, to say nothing of the Netherland East Indies and the other countries which fringe the Pacific

    Menzies was not an isolationist or purely a “little Britainer”.

    A simplified version of historian David Walker’ argument is that most Australian Prime Ministers since Menzies’ first term and, indeed, since the Indiaphile Deakin have “discovered Asia” and called for closer links. Despite this the current rhetoric has the same Yellow Peril quality that it had in the 1850s.

    OC
    Nice words. But Menzies actions speak louder than his spoken words. And to be fair to Menzies, he was man of his times. Three of his actions speak louder than anything.
    1. He continued White Australia policy till he was PM
    2. There was no official recognition of Indigenous Australians as citizens of Australia while he was PM.
    3. His immigration policy was Euro and British centric. Although PNG was administered by Australia during his time, I don’t know whether any native PNGians migrated to Australia (maybe they have but I don’t know). But I certainly know one thing. Migration from Asian countries was restricted at best or non-existent during his time.
    It is fact that both major parties were on unity ticket on this issue. So he alone cannot be blamed for that policy.

    The country now has a large segment of Asian immigration and that makes a difference when a party leader keeps dissing Asian countries to our north.

    And I don’t discount his political skills. He left politics undefeated after he was elected PM second time. He was PM for almost 17 years, which is remarkable.

  17. Trent Zimmerman torpedoes another of Peter Dutton’s disingenous ‘No’ arguments:

    The federal Liberal party has adopted a position supporting local and regional voices. It is important we ensure First Nations people can be heard at every level and this should be progressed in tandem with the national voice, in partnership with state and territory governments. But here’s the rub – how can it be consistent to say that local and regional voices have merit but a voice to national government – where so much of decision-making relevant to Indigenous Australians occurs – does not?

    https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2023/apr/12/indigenous-voice-opposition-has-cost-the-liberals-julian-leeser-and-ken-wyatt-the-own-goals-are-mounting

  18. UK Cartoons:
    Steven Camley on #JoeBiden #RishiSunak #NorthernIreland

    Peter Brookes on #JoeBiden #POTUS #Ireland

    Guy Venables on #JoeBiden #POTUS #Ireland

    Dave Brown on #JoeBiden #MichelleONeill #JeffreyDonaldson #POTUS #SinnFein #DUP #Stormont #Ireland

    Steve Bell on Joe Biden’s visit to Northern Ireland

    Patrick Blower on #JoeBiden #GoodFridayAgreement #BidenHarris2024

    Martyn Turner on #JoeBiden #GoodFridayAgreement #NRA #GunControlNow

    Christian Adams on #ElonMusk #Twitter

  19. Although, to be fair, a major party leader has only been dissing China (a country with an objectively questionable human rights record). There are now more Indians than Chinese in my home city (a characteristic likely to increase over time) and I have not heard him (yet) disparage India. Nor have I heard much negativity towards Southeast Asia, Taiwan and Japan.

  20. Now THIS is a Labor Housing Minister! Not Greens, not Liberal, Labor:

    Rose Jackson wants to make one thing very clear as she begins her new role as New South Wales’ housing minister: medium- and high-density social housing developments should be built in Sydney’s north shore and eastern suburbs.

    And if the residents there don’t embrace them? Too bad.

    As she grapples with just how ambitious she plans to set her targets and the levers she can pull to achieve them, Jackson said she hopes to bring the communities, described by some as anti-development, with her.

    “If they can’t get behind it, well, get out of the way because we desperately need it,” the minister said as she packed up her opposition office and prepared to move into her new ministerial digs on Wednesday.

    “I’ve met the people on the waiting list so I am very motivated to just push through.

    “I do want to bring people on that journey and say to them, ‘these are going to be buildings that you want in your neighbourhood, these are going to be neighbours that you want to live next door to’.”

    Jackson, sworn in as the youngest minister in the first NSW cabinet with gender parity last week, insists public housing does not need to be ugly and can instead enhance an area by adding green space and amenities.

    Her initial focus is on inner Sydney and regional areas, including the northern rivers that also falls into her remit as minister for the North Coast.

    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2023/apr/13/rose-jackson-social-housing-warning-sydney-suburbs

    Having worked with Rose on the NSW Labor Housing and Homeless committee, I can say that she means what she says and she walks the talk, as well as being full bottle on her brief already.

  21. China plans to close airspace north of Taiwan for about half an hour next week, down from an originally announced three days, because of a falling object from a satellite launch vehicle, officials in Taiwan and South Korea said.

  22. Q: I have to say what a tight ship the Albanese government is running.

    Dutton making himself the story everyday is making life very easy for the Albanese Govt…..not to mention the fact that the Govt is actually doing a good job as well.

  23. I met Rose Jackson when we were in our twenties. She is the real deal, like an Australian version of the immediate previous NZ Prime Minister. NSW needs more people like her and fewer people like DoPe or Pru Goward or her daughter Tsiporah.

  24. Don’t mix your messages.

    Dutton is out and about lying blatantly and frequently about the Voice. This is a hangover from Nasty Party behaviour over the last decade. Actually, it is core Dutton.

    Ley is going to a COL blitz. There are a few simple messages in this space that can be repeated endlessly.

  25. Steve777
    The Liberal Party seems to have decided that it can emulate the Republicans in the USA and take votes off Labor (c.f. Democrats) among the less advantaged and less educated, in particular among “old” (white) Australians. Flip former Labor heartland seats in Western Sydney, Western Melbourne and outer suburbs and regions elsewhere.

    I fully agree. I do not think this is a forward-looking strategy – either for the Republicans or the Liberal Party. It may win over Burnie and Bundaberg for the Liberal Party, but the outer suburbs may not want to enlist in the culture wars.

  26. The Flipflop Greens need more than a Bandtaid to fix what is wrong with them.

    They spent 8 months dissing the Voice. They now support the Voice but Silence of the Lambs has got nothing on the way Bandt is leading the Voice debate.

    They want to build a million houses but block 30,000 houses.

    They drew a line in the sand on no new coal and no new gas. Then they folded on no new coal and no new gas.

  27. Goll
    “ You need to own outright a ‘millionaires” road property in the area to have “made it’. (upwards of 15mill, Morrison doesn’t)
    A Millionaires’ road property, from the “road to the water ‘ is what he would like.
    Turnbull’s house on the harbour would make Morrison’s cheeks turn “rose pink” at the thought.”

    Morrison will always have his faith and his family to fall back on. He’ll be fine 😀

    Besides, Ben Chifley lived in a modest worker’s cottage in Parramatta and is still remembered as a great PM. I’d be very happy to see Morrison end his days living in a similar sized home, regardless of how he is remembered as PM.

  28. @Snappy Tom:
    “A friend who does political research and is a Uniting Church member once told me that any basically polling ever done to compare “church members” with “the general population” finds “church members” skew to the Right of the “general population”.

    …and here was I thinking the church was founded as a subversive, change movement by a wandering prophetic leader…”

    Yeah, but the trouble with subversive change movements once they get into office is they become the Establishment, and Christianity has been THE Establishment in the Western world for the past 1700 years or so.

    @C@t: Rose Jackson sounds fantastic. A rare case where I’d love to have someone from NSW Labor here in Victoria. We need some of that fuck the NIMBYs attitude here

    @Cronus: “Lady Warsi said it was time for the party to realise that “black and brown people can be racist too”, adding how “painfully disappointing” it had been to hear the home secretary single out British-Pakistani men as being of special concern in relation to child sexual cases, as part of the most diverse cabinet in history.”

    Yes. Well – even moreso than the Liberals here, the Tories seem to have a practice of finding ethnic minority candidates they can push to the moon to shield themselves against racism allegations. I remember seeing a study of how white Tory party membership is vs the cabinet. It will not surprise to realise that Tory party membership is extremely white and the diverse cabinet doesn’t reflect it even a tiny bit. The flip side of that is they are handpicking some real nasty characters like Braverman who seem to think they are Enoch Powell.

  29. Confirmation this morning that Prince Harry will attend his father’s coronation as king.
    As if he was never going to attend ?
    Give me a break !

  30. Hmmm. Looks like the wheels may be falling off in Victoria …

    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2023/apr/12/victorian-government-urges-more-investment-in-renewables-as-revived-sec-wont-be-enough-to-reach-target

    Lily D’Ambrosio told an industry event on Wednesday that less than a quarter of the renewable energy required to meet the state’s 2035 emissions reduction target would come from the SEC, and called for investment to produce the remaining 20.5 gigawatts that is needed.

    Victorian government modelling shows 25GW is needed by 2035 to reach a 95% reduction in emissions.

    The SEC will generate 4.5GW – less than 20% of the required energy.

    Having a target is not enough. You also have to have a plan.

    Federal Labor, please take note.

  31. What is Mr Dutton suggesting? That Indigenous Australians are somehow not worthy of a national Voice because of crime in Alice Springs?

    This looks like “black African Gangs” re-imagined. A few questions:

    1. Did crime suddenly become a problem in Alice Springs some time after May 21, 2022?
    2. Assuming that it did not, what if anything did the Federal Government do to address the issue between September 18, 2013 and May 22, 2022.
    3. In fact, what can the Federal Government do, given that law and order is primarily a State and Territory issue?
    4. Regardless of all of the above, how are the issues of Alice Springs crime and The Voice linked?
    5. Why do you apparently believe that setting up The Voice would somehow hinder rather than help in addressing areas of Indigenous disadvantage? You talk as if they are somehow mutually exclusive. You get one or the other and the Great White Chief knows best.
    6. How do you plan to address Indigenous disadvantage? More police? More jails? More dogwhistling? Assimilation?
    7. Who will all these local and regional voices talk to? If local and regional, why not national? Won’t they cost trillions or billions or whatever?
    7. In fact, why are you dog-whistling?

    I can go on but that’s enough for now.

  32. ”Confirmation this morning that Prince Harry will attend his father’s coronation as king.”

    I can cross that off my list of things to worry about.

  33. It says something about the Liberal’s consideration of Jacinta Price for the Shadow Indigenous Affairs portfolio when she wasn’t selected in the first place.

    That they would consider such a junior senator at this particular time reeks of tokenism. If the No vote loses, would they retain her in that position given her predilection for volatility?

  34. C@tmommasays:
    Thursday, April 13, 2023 at 10:52 am
    Now THIS is a Labor Housing Minister! Not Greens, not Liberal, Labor:
    _____________________
    Everyone talks a good game.
    Keep us posted on each new development.

  35. Ven

    “You may see yourself as liberal, but if some voters think you’re an unreconstructed reactionary they’ll treat you as such at the ballot box.

    He goes on to wargame what a new conservative party might look like.

    https://www.abc.net.au/news/2023-04-09/liberal-party-election-loss-menzies-liberalism-keynes-hayek/102201242”
    —————————————————————

    I recall reading that article by Hutchens a few days ago and thinking the same. Dutton sprouts ‘Menzies’ despite their views being diametrically opposed. Either he doesn’t know his history or Dutton is simply relying on the name Menzies as a call to arms to justify his position. I suspect the latter but in any case, the name Menzies is irrelevant to most non-Boomers.

  36. Re Melbourne Mammoth @10:18. ”So I am getting the impression that almost all mainstream non-political organisations support a Voice to Parliament except those specifically catering to “reactionary” groups and Dutton is aligning himself exclusively with an “unholy coalition of the unenlightened” consisting of talkback radio, Sky News, One Nation (and worse) catering to the whims of conservative, angry, cis-gender, Anglo-Saxon white men.”

    That Coalition I believe has a number of “silent” partners who are concerned that the Voice will raise the profile and clout of groups who do not share their world view, values and concern for their business activities’ ongoing profitability. The big miners and agribusiness for a start. Also organisations that are their “voice”, like the IPA.

  37. CA-Sen: Rep. Ro Khanna (D) Calls For Sen. Dianne Feinstein’s (D) Resignation

    https://m.dailykos.com/stories/2023/4/12/2163612/-CA-Sen-Rep-Ro-Khanna-D-Calls-For-Sen-Dianne-Feinstein-s-D-Resignation

    “California Democratic Rep. Ro Khanna is calling for California Democratic Sen. Dianne Feinstein to resign – a rare instance of a lawmaker urging a member of their own party to step down from Congress.

    “It’s time for @SenFeinstein to resign. We need to put the country ahead of personal loyalty. While she has had a lifetime of public service, it is obvious she can no longer fulfill her duties. Not speaking out undermines our credibility as elected representatives of the people,” Khanna said Wednesday on Twitter.

    The 89-year-old Feinstein announced in early March that she had been hospitalized and was receiving treatment for shingles. On March 7, Feinstein said on Twitter that she was recovering at home as she continued to receive treatment, and she said that she looked forward to returning to the Senate “as soon as possible.”

    Feinstein has not announced when she will return to the chamber. Earlier this year, the California Democrat announced that she would not run for reelection.”

  38. Herald Sun 13/05
    The Herald Sun this week revealed questions had been raised about Ms D’Ambrosio’s trip with claims departmental officials were tasked with retrospectively creating an itinerary to justify the travel.
    Ms D’Ambrosio travelled through the United Kingdom, Spain and Denmark, between March 11 and March 23.
    _____________________
    A retrospective itinerary.
    I have seen it all.

  39. Steve777says:
    Thursday, April 13, 2023 at 10:04 am
    The Liberal Party seems to have decided that it can emulate the Republicans in the USA and take votes off Labor (c.f. Democrats) among the less advantaged and less educated, in particular among “old” (white) Australians. Flip former Labor heartland seats in Western Sydney, Western Melbourne and outer suburbs and regions elsewhere.
    —————————
    That’s politically stupid because the only election Howard would have won without former inner city Liberal seats and now independent seats was 1996 and Howard only won a few seats in Sydney’s west and nothing in Melbourne’s west.

  40. MelbourneMammoth says:
    Thursday, April 13, 2023 at 10:18 am
    So I am getting the impression that almost all mainstream non-political organisations support a Voice to Parliament except those specifically catering to “reactionary” groups and Dutton is aligning himself exclusively with an “unholy coalition of the unenlightened” consisting of talkback radio, Sky News, One Nation (and worse) catering to the whims of conservative, angry, cis-gender, Anglo-Saxon white men.

    Sad.
    ——————————————-

    I recall Credlin today decrying big business and elites support for The Voice. I wonder if she would do the same if they supported the No vote?

  41. Taylormade @ #930 Thursday, April 13th, 2023 – 11:29 am

    C@tmommasays:
    Thursday, April 13, 2023 at 10:52 am
    Now THIS is a Labor Housing Minister! Not Greens, not Liberal, Labor:
    _____________________
    Everyone talks a good game.
    Keep us posted on each new development.

    And the federal Coalition government did what over a decade for Housing Affordability, Affordable and Social Housing? In concert with the NSW and Victorian Coalition state governments, when they were in power?

    Like to post about it?

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