James Massola of the Age/Herald reports that “expectations (are) growing that former Prime Minister Scott Morrison will quit politics”, probably between the May budget and the end of the year, entailing a by-election for his seat of Cook. Please let it be so, because a valley of death stretches before those of us in the election industry out to the second half of next year, to be followed by a flood encompassing the Northern Territory on August 24, the Australian Capital Territory on October 19, Queensland on October 26 and Western Australia on March 8 the following year (UPDATE: It’s noted that the Queensland local government elections next March, inclusive as they are of the unusually significant Brisbane City Council and lord mayoralty, should rate a mention). A normal federal election for the House of Representatives and half the Senate could happen in the second half of 2024 or the first of 2025, the alternative of a double dissolution being presumably unlikely.
Redistributions will offer some diversion in the interim, particularly after the Electoral Commissioner calculates how many House of Representatives seats each state is entitled to in the next parliament on June 27. This is likely to result in Western Australia gaining a seat and New South Wales and Victoria each losing one (respectively putting them at 16, 46 and 38), initiating redistribution processes that are likely to take around a year. There is also an outside chance that Queensland will gain a thirty-first seat. The Northern Territory will also have a redistribution on grounds of it having been seven years since one was last conducted, although this will involve either a minimal tweak to the boundary between Solomon and Lingiari or no change at all. At state level, a redistribution process was recently initiated in Western Australia and should conclude near the end of the year. The other state that conducts a redistribution every term, South Australia, gives its boundaries commission wide latitude on when it gets the ball rolling, but past experience suggests it’s likely to be near the end of the year.
However, the main electoral event of the foreseeable future is undoubtedly the Indigenous Voice referendum, which is likely to be held between October and December. Kevin Bonham has a post on polling for referendum in which he standardises the various results, which differ markedly in terms of their questions and response structures, and divines a fall in support from around 65% in the middle of last year to around 58% at present. For those of you with access to academic journals, there is also a paper by Murray Goot of Macquarie University in the Journal of Australian Studies entitled “Support in the Polls for an Indigenous Constitutional Voice: How Broad, How Strong, How Vulnerable?” In narrowing it down to credible polls with non-binary response options (i.e. those allowing for uncommitted responses of some kind, as distinct from forced response polls), Goot finds support has fallen from around 58% to 51% from the period of May to September to the period of October to January, while opposition had risen from 18% to 27%. The change was concentrated among Coalition supporters: whereas Labor and especially Greens supporters were consistently and strongly in favour, support among Coalition fell from around 45% to 36%.
Forced response questions consistently found between 60% and 65% in favour regardless of question wording, while non-binary polls (i.e. allowing for various kind of uncommitted response) have almost invariably had at over 50%. Goot notes that forced response polls have found respondents breaking between for and against in similar proportion to the rest, which “confounds the idea that, when push comes to shove, ‘undecided’ voters will necessarily vote no”. However, he also notes that questions in non-binary polls that have produced active majorities in favour have either mentioned an Indigenous Voice or the Uluru Statement from the Heart, or “rehearsed the Prime Minister’s proposal to amend the Constitution”. One that conspicuously did not do any of these things was a Dynata poll for the Institute of Public Affairs, which got a positive result of just 28% by priming respondents with a leading question and then emphasised that the proposal would involve “laws for every Australian”. JWS Research got only 43% in favour and 23% against, but its response structure was faulted by Goot for including a “need more information” option, which ruled the 20% who chose it out of contention one way or the other.
Socrates says:
Thursday, April 13, 2023 at 11:07 am
Goll
“ You need to own outright a ‘millionaires” road property in the area to have “made it’. (upwards of 15mill, Morrison doesn’t)
A Millionaires’ road property, from the “road to the water ‘ is what he would like.
Turnbull’s house on the harbour would make Morrison’s cheeks turn “rose pink” at the thought.”
Morrison will always have his faith and his family to fall back on. He’ll be fine
Besides, Ben Chifley lived in a modest worker’s cottage in Parramatta and is still remembered as a great PM. I’d be very happy to see Morrison end his days living in a similar sized home, regardless of how he is remembered as PM.
………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………..
A similar situation was where the Former Labor Queensland Premier Vince Gair lived on Annerley Rd in Annerley, Brisbane. Stories still talked about today are how he would take a cut lunch from home every day and while he was still an MP he would catch either a bus at his front door or a tram which was just a short walk away to attend state parliament in George St.
By co-incidence another former Premier of Queensland Digby Denham 1911 to 1915 lived just a few doors up on the same side of the road in Annerley.
Taylormade @ #934 Thursday, April 13th, 2023 – 11:35 am
Your opinion about federal Liberal Party Deputy Leader, Sussan Ley, using taxpayer money to fly to Queensland for the purchase of an Investment Property?
That noise you can hear in the background is dollars pouring into renewables.
Labor released the investment flood by ending decades of Greens/Coalition climate wedges.
The private sector has finally been unleashed.
C@tmomma says:
Thursday, April 13, 2023 at 10:34 am
Trent Zimmerman torpedoes another of Peter Dutton’s disingenous ‘No’ arguments:
The federal Liberal party has adopted a position supporting local and regional voices. It is important we ensure First Nations people can be heard at every level and this should be progressed in tandem with the national voice, in partnership with state and territory governments. But here’s the rub – how can it be consistent to say that local and regional voices have merit but a voice to national government – where so much of decision-making relevant to Indigenous Australians occurs – does not?
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2023/apr/12/indigenous-voice-opposition-has-cost-the-liberals-julian-leeser-and-ken-wyatt-the-own-goals-are-mounting
————————————————
Indisputably sound logic.
Alice Springs is not every majority-Indigenous town in Australia:
NT Senator Jacinta Price is standing behind him as Dutton says that locals are leaving and tourism numbers are down due to the lack of safety
He knows this, how?
“If you look at the tourism numbers at the moment, the tourism numbers we were told about that just came out from the Easter period, they are down by 40%.”
Would it not be the case that those numbers are down because, post the pandemic, people are going overseas instead? Having done staycations while the borders were closed.
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/live/2023/apr/13/australia-news-live-politics-cost-of-sydney-metro-jobs-figures-unemployment-indigenous-voice-to-parliament#top-of-blog
The seasonally adjusted unemployment rate remained at 3.5 per cent in March, according to data released today by the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS).
Lauren Ford, ABS head of labour statistics said: “with employment increasing by around 53,000 people, and the number of unemployed decreasing by 1,600 people, the unemployment rate remained at a near 50-year low of 3.5 per cent.”
“In line with the increase in employment, the employment-to-population ratio increased 0.1 percentage point to 64.4 per cent, with the participation rate remaining at 66.7 per cent. Both indicators were close to their historical highs in November 2022, reflecting a tight labour market and explaining why employers are finding it hard to fill the high number of job vacancies.”
“With consecutive months of strong growth in female employment (up 81,000 over the past two months), the female participation rate increased to a record high of 62.5 per cent, and their employment-to-population ratio also hit a historical high of 60.4 per cent,” Ms Ford said.
https://www.abs.gov.au/media-centre/media-releases/unemployment-rate-remains-35-march
I note melbourne’s Herald Sun is reporting that the knives are out for Greg Mirrabella as lib president becuase he is “too progressive” .
You know a party is seriusly farked and removed from reality and the electorate when Sophie’s Choice is “too progressive”.
Although part of me rejoices to see them crawl up their own fetid orifices to electroal oblivion, I worry that:
1. It’s not good for democracy to have such a shithouse opposition – hopefully indies, the greens and possibly any sane nationals removed from lib HQ can keen labor accountable.
2. They might one day win government by default due to the It’s Time factor and the likley difficulty governments face due to on-going financial, social and environmental crises over the coming years as the unsustainability of orthodox economics, government-backed speculative financial markets, mindless consumerism, inequitable wages and taxation, climate change and ecocide become more apparent. If/when they get back they’ll make Kennett look warm and fuzzy.
I’m still hopefully that they will only be electable in Vic if they come back to the centre, and this seems unlikely despite their current leader. Teals-Greens are likley to become the de facto opposition, with the nats if they split from the illiberals or otherwise country indies.
Historical population of Alice Springs:
Year Pop. ±%
2001 23,384 —
2006 21,622 −7.5%
2011 24,208 +12.0%
2016 23,726 −2.0%
2021 24,855 +4.8
Dutton is making up crap again.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Alice_Springs#Demographics
About a year ago a number of North Korean fishing boats were found washed up on the Japanese coast and those on board were dead. It was a mystery at the time. Now the mystery may have been solved.
ABC Radio National is playing a series of broadcasts on lawless behaviour on the high seas, produced in the USA. Much lawless behaviour involves fishing and in this case the NK fishers in their poorly equipped boats had been forced further out to sea by fleets of Chinese vessels invading their territory.
The program surmised that the NK boats were ill equipped to handle the high seas and, if they broke down or ran out of fuel, drifted aimlessly without possibility of rescue with some crews dying.
Not only bad behaviour by the Chinese fishing fleets but also shows how NK can build and fire missiles but cannot (or will not) care properly for its own citizens.
Sustainable Future
2. They might one day win government by default due to the It’s Time factor and the likley difficulty governments face due to on-going financial, social and environmental crises over the coming years as the unsustainability of orthodox economics, government-backed speculative financial markets, mindless consumerism, inequitable wages and taxation, climate change and ecocide become more apparent. If/when they get back they’ll make Kennett look warm and fuzzy.
————————————–
That’s my biggest worry with them because its easy to ignore them if they want to be loopy but without a replacement on the center right the day will come when they are back in office because the political cycle always turns.
Socrates
Besides, Ben Chifley lived in a modest worker’s cottage in Parramatta and is still remembered as a great PM. I’d be very happy to see Morrison end his days living in a similar sized home, regardless of how he is remembered as PM.
Ben Chifley’s modest workers cottage was in Busby St, Bathurst.
In a federal distribution as William mentions in the post it is likely NSW and VIC would each lose a seat and WA gain one, would they then shrink the lower house size back to 150? Or would they compensate this elsewhere?
Why is Dutton bothered about Alice Springs? He couldnt have cared less when he was in government for a decade.
You’re expecting too much from a party that needed to have two runs of Barnaby before realising he’s no good. Sanity is not their forté.
steve davissays:
Thursday, April 13, 2023 at 12:12 pm
Why is Dutton bothered about Alice Springs? He couldnt have cared less when he was in government for a decade.
————–
To make it look like the ALP is focused on the wrong things.
Why is Dutton bothered about Alice Springs? He couldnt have cared less when he was in government for a decade.
_____
It was not of sufficient base political value.
steve davis says:
Thursday, April 13, 2023 at 12:12 pm
Why is Dutton bothered about Alice Springs? He couldnt have cared less when he was in government for a decade.
———————————————————
I won’t listen to a single thing he has to say on Alice Springs or anything related to indigenous affairs. His credibility is zero after his government did nothing for a decade.
A R says:
Thursday, April 13, 2023 at 12:15 pm
any sane nationals
You’re expecting too much from a party that needed to have two runs of Barnaby before realising he’s no good. Sanity is not their forté.
—————————-
And don’t for a minute think there isn’t another run left in him, it’s a certainty.
Holdenhillbilly says:
Thursday, April 13, 2023 at 11:47 am
The seasonally adjusted unemployment rate remained at 3.5 per cent in March, according to data released today by the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS).
Lauren Ford, ABS head of labour statistics said: “with employment increasing by around 53,000 people, and the number of unemployed decreasing by 1,600 people, the unemployment rate remained at a near 50-year low of 3.5 per cent.”
………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………..
98.6 says :
When I was in Grade 12 doing Economics, something I’ll remember till the day I die is learning that at the time the acceptable unemployment rate in Australia was 2 per cent.
I often wonder whether we will ever get there ?
Mrs Birmingham’s son should follow the convention by resigning from the Shadow Cabinet. I predict he’ll do so in the not-too-distant future.
Alice Springs is so far from the experiences of most Australians that it may as well be on another planet. What does Dutton have to gain electorally from flogging this issue?
Cronus says:
Thursday, April 13, 2023 at 12:22 pm
A R says:
Thursday, April 13, 2023 at 12:15 pm
any sane nationals
You’re expecting too much from a party that needed to have two runs of Barnaby before realising he’s no good. Sanity is not their forté.
—————————-
And don’t for a minute think there isn’t another run left in him, it’s a certainty.
……………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………..
98.6 says :
A non political friend of mine once commented on having Barnyard as our deputy PM.
He said ‘Why do we have an idiot as deputy PM when he can’t even find a hat that fits him properly’
Every since then I get a laugh when I see Barnyard talking on TV with his ill-fitting hats.
Have a look next time and I’m sure you will see what I mean.
There must be a lot of people in Alice Springs who wish Dutton would piss off and never return. Every time he opens his mouth he creates an image of an ungovernable hell hole ruled by out of control ‘black’ mobs. Those residents quietly living their own lives don’t want the nationwide attention he brings and the substantial tourist industry need him like a hole in the head.
Dutton’s exchange with a ABC journo in Alice:
[‘Dutton: “I mean, with respect, that’s such an ABC question. Do you live locally? I mean, do you speak to people on the street? Do you hear what it is they’re saying to you?”
Reporter: “I live locally.”
Dutton: “You live locally and you don’t believe there’s any problem here?”
Reporter: “No I’m asking you what evidence you have.”
Dutton then responded by saying he had spoken extensively to social workers, police and others.
He said he was unaware what bureaucrats and academics believed, and argued the ABC would be abrogating its duty if it ignored the story.
Dutton: “If the ABC and others don’t see fit to report that then frankly I think it reflects more on the ABC than it does on the locals here. And I don’t think you’re doing your job if you’re denying the reality of the circumstances on the ground,” he said.
Reporter: “I’m not denying the reality. I’m asking you what data you’re using to support your claims here.”
Dutton: “I’ve answered that question so if there’s a more sensible one I’d be happy to take it.”] – SMH blog.
A repeat of the nonsense of African gangs in Melbourne.
sprocket_ says:
Thursday, April 13, 2023 at 12:09 pm
Socrates
Besides, Ben Chifley lived in a modest worker’s cottage in Parramatta and is still remembered as a great PM. I’d be very happy to see Morrison end his days living in a similar sized home, regardless of how he is remembered as PM.
Ben Chifley’s modest workers cottage was in Busby St, Bathurst.
______________________________
Whilst giving out high interest loans to the desperate during the Depression – or so Lang at least claimed.
Free Money,
The constitution limits the number of MHRs from the states to double the number of senators from the states, but it can vary by one or two due to rounding. So if one state gains, another (usually) loses.
The number of MHRs from the territories, however, is not limited. The time the total number went from 150 to 151 was because the ACT gained a seat.
Oh me oh my: yet another Tory (the former member for the Division of North Sydney) is supporting the “Yes” case.
Cronus says:
Thursday, April 13, 2023 at 12:22 pm
A R says:
Thursday, April 13, 2023 at 12:15 pm
any sane nationals
You’re expecting too much from a party that needed to have two runs of Barnaby before realising he’s no good. Sanity is not their forté.
—————————-
And don’t for a minute think there isn’t another run left in him, it’s a certainty.
………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………….
98.6 says :
If Barnyard doesn’t run again, can we expect his new Mrs, Vikki Campion, take over his seat and lead the Nationals.
If you read her columns in the MSM you will get my drift.
She would possibly do a better job as leader than BEETROOT.
https://trove.nla.gov.au/newspaper/article/56926001
Here’s the original article re the accusations of usury against Chifley. Note the alleged interest rate was 9%.
‘Chaos’ is a ladder for Dutton.
Dutton’s a disingenuous ogre, who has Buckley’s chance of making it to the Lodge. One who would lift the Tories’ spirit is Archer but they’re too thick to come to this realisation. She’s moderate & has the courage of her convictions. If find her to be quite impressive.
12ft.io/www.theage.com.au/world/north-america/fit-gun-and-god-loving-mid-20s-us-secret-leaker-identified-20230413-p5d070.html
The Pentagon leaker is a racist gun-nut God-botherer who leaked to bignote himself to teenagers.
Not exactly Chelsea Manning.
The Pentagon leaker is a racist gun-nut God-botherer who leaked to bignote himself to teenagers.
Not exactly Chelsea Manning.
—
But who somehow had access to sensitive intelligence worldwide. Lot of explaining to do there.
Re Dutton, he better move on soon before people start investigating his claims, as well as his baker friend.
Mavis says:
Thursday, April 13, 2023 at 12:29 pm
Mrs Birmingham’s son should follow the convention by resigning from the Shadow Cabinet. I predict he’ll do so in the not-too-distant future.
——————————————————————
If he was her daughter she’d be half pregnant.
You can’t fence sit as a Minister imo.
“ any sane nationals
You’re expecting too much from a party that needed to have two runs of Barnaby before realising he’s no good. Sanity is not their forté.”
Vic nats are not as crazy as they are federally and in many other states – the vic libs are a feral disarray of warring ‘ex’- neo nazis, mormons, Pentecostals and your old fashioned born-to-rule elite boyz school & commerce-law degree cunts, but some of state vic nats are generally half decent humans. Federally, the vic nats are shamed by Bridget McKenzie.
Lars Von Trier:
Thursday, April 13, 2023 at 12:42 pm
Lars, you’re dissing Labor royalty on spurious grounds – Chifley having categorically denied Lange’s usury allegation.
98.6 says:
Thursday, April 13, 2023 at 12:49 pm
Cronus says:
Thursday, April 13, 2023 at 12:22 pm
A R says:
Thursday, April 13, 2023 at 12:15 pm
any sane nationals
You’re expecting too much from a party that needed to have two runs of Barnaby before realising he’s no good. Sanity is not their forté.
—————————-
And don’t for a minute think there isn’t another run left in him, it’s a certainty.
………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………….
98.6 says :
If Barnyard doesn’t run again, can we expect his new Mrs, Vikki Campion, take over his seat and lead the Nationals.
If you read her columns in the MSM you will get my drift.
She would possibly do a better job as leader than BEETROOT.
——————————————-
Can I just say that from what I’ve seen and read, they thoroughly deserve each other. Equally incoherent and irrational.
Simon @ #1133 Thursday, April 13th, 2023 – 1:22 pm
Not really. The US military is rife with the “racist gun-nut God-botherer” cohort. Law enforcement, too. The authority, firearms, and entrenched religiosity of US government agencies appeals to every core aspect of their personality.
The operators of the tourist Ghan train are doubtless nervous about Dutton’s obsession with Alice Springs. Most of the passengers on this expensive trip to Darwin would be older retirees who might be more easily spooked by Dutton’s rhetoric. The train spends several hours in Alice Springs and these people might fear they would be confronted by angry mobs. This is the start of the busy winter season and the company would be unhappy if Dutton caused people to cancel their bookings.
Player Onesays:
Thursday, April 13, 2023 at 11:15 am
😆
Isn’t that how Labor established its current target? 😆
It always pays to be cynical, especially about political leaders. But I would trust Ben Chifley over Lang every day of the week.
I really hope the Dutton-Murdoch campaign of demonising aboriginal communities gets called out this time. The Gina end of the mining industry does not want an effective indigenous voice, and Dutton will rally the racist vote and divide the nation in order to win their ‘donations’.
a r says:
Thursday, April 13, 2023 at 1:27 pm
Simon @ #1133 Thursday, April 13th, 2023 – 1:22 pm
The Pentagon leaker is a racist gun-nut God-botherer who leaked to bignote himself to teenagers.
Not exactly Chelsea Manning.
—
But who somehow had access to sensitive intelligence worldwide. Lot of explaining to do there.
Not really. The US military is rife with the “racist gun-nut God-botherer” cohort. Law enforcement, too. The authority, firearms, and entrenched religiosity of US government agencies appeals to every core aspect of their personality.
————————————————————————————
And probably scrapping the bottom of the barrel given that the US Army fell 15k short of its personnel recruiting target last year.
Proof that Lang is in the same class as Lars.
Keating had Lang readmitted to the party in 1970 (despite the objections of many).
Maybe the truth is lost in time. Ironically today Chifley would not be de- platformed for allegedly making a buck , rather his well known and long term marital infidelity.
Cronus:
Thursday, April 13, 2023 at 1:23 pm
Mavis says:
Thursday, April 13, 2023 at 12:29 pm
Mrs Birmingham’s son should follow the convention by resigning from the Shadow Cabinet. I predict he’ll do so in the not-too-distant future.
——————————————————————
[‘If he was her daughter she’d be half pregnant.
You can’t fence sit as a Minister imo.’]
Yes. Once the debate on the “Voice” gets serious, Simon will find it very difficult to silently support the “Yes” case and serve on the Shadow front bench. And it’s not that he’s a shrinking violet evidenced by his
public disclosure that he’s an atheist – the only one in his party apparently. I’d be very surprised if he doesn’t soon resign.
Mavissays:
Thursday, April 13, 2023 at 12:40 pm
Dutton’s exchange with a ABC journo in Alice:
____________________
Ol’ Peter ‘Glass Jaw’ Dutton.
For someone that has such a soft chin he keeps leading with it. He’s like watching the Coyote. Thinks he’s quite brilliant and cunning but everyone is only watching him to see him fall off the cliff yet again.
So who are some competitive candidates for Victorian Liberal President who’s more conservative than Greg Mirabella? Any names come to mind?
Dutton is making easy work for his media team.
A few word swaps from these pronouncements five years ago, and hey presto!
The good citizens of Alice Springs are “scared to go out to restaurants” because of “Aboriginal gang violence”, Peter Dutton has said, in an interview attacking the supposed lack of deterrence of crime in Alice Springs.
The Opposition Leader told 2GB on Wednesday that the good citizens of Alice Springs were “bemused” when they looked “at the jokes of sentences being handed down” due to “political correctness that’s taken hold”.
“There’s no deterrence there at the moment,” he said.
ParkySP:
Thursday, April 13, 2023 at 1:44 pm
I think Dutts takes his own counsel lest he wouldn’t be in Alice banging on about Aboriginal crime. And although not a figment of his imagination, he’d do far better if he were to address the myriad reasons why crime in the NT is rampant.