Miscellany: redistributions, referendums and by-elections (open thread)

A review to what the electoral calendar holds between now and the next general elections in the second half of next year, including prospects for the Indigenous Voice referendum.

James Massola of the Age/Herald reports that “expectations (are) growing that former Prime Minister Scott Morrison will quit politics”, probably between the May budget and the end of the year, entailing a by-election for his seat of Cook. Please let it be so, because a valley of death stretches before those of us in the election industry out to the second half of next year, to be followed by a flood encompassing the Northern Territory on August 24, the Australian Capital Territory on October 19, Queensland on October 26 and Western Australia on March 8 the following year (UPDATE: It’s noted that the Queensland local government elections next March, inclusive as they are of the unusually significant Brisbane City Council and lord mayoralty, should rate a mention). A normal federal election for the House of Representatives and half the Senate could happen in the second half of 2024 or the first of 2025, the alternative of a double dissolution being presumably unlikely.

Redistributions will offer some diversion in the interim, particularly after the Electoral Commissioner calculates how many House of Representatives seats each state is entitled to in the next parliament on June 27. This is likely to result in Western Australia gaining a seat and New South Wales and Victoria each losing one (respectively putting them at 16, 46 and 38), initiating redistribution processes that are likely to take around a year. There is also an outside chance that Queensland will gain a thirty-first seat. The Northern Territory will also have a redistribution on grounds of it having been seven years since one was last conducted, although this will involve either a minimal tweak to the boundary between Solomon and Lingiari or no change at all. At state level, a redistribution process was recently initiated in Western Australia and should conclude near the end of the year. The other state that conducts a redistribution every term, South Australia, gives its boundaries commission wide latitude on when it gets the ball rolling, but past experience suggests it’s likely to be near the end of the year.

However, the main electoral event of the foreseeable future is undoubtedly the Indigenous Voice referendum, which is likely to be held between October and December. Kevin Bonham has a post on polling for referendum in which he standardises the various results, which differ markedly in terms of their questions and response structures, and divines a fall in support from around 65% in the middle of last year to around 58% at present. For those of you with access to academic journals, there is also a paper by Murray Goot of Macquarie University in the Journal of Australian Studies entitled “Support in the Polls for an Indigenous Constitutional Voice: How Broad, How Strong, How Vulnerable?” In narrowing it down to credible polls with non-binary response options (i.e. those allowing for uncommitted responses of some kind, as distinct from forced response polls), Goot finds support has fallen from around 58% to 51% from the period of May to September to the period of October to January, while opposition had risen from 18% to 27%. The change was concentrated among Coalition supporters: whereas Labor and especially Greens supporters were consistently and strongly in favour, support among Coalition fell from around 45% to 36%.

Forced response questions consistently found between 60% and 65% in favour regardless of question wording, while non-binary polls (i.e. allowing for various kind of uncommitted response) have almost invariably had at over 50%. Goot notes that forced response polls have found respondents breaking between for and against in similar proportion to the rest, which “confounds the idea that, when push comes to shove, ‘undecided’ voters will necessarily vote no”. However, he also notes that questions in non-binary polls that have produced active majorities in favour have either mentioned an Indigenous Voice or the Uluru Statement from the Heart, or “rehearsed the Prime Minister’s proposal to amend the Constitution”. One that conspicuously did not do any of these things was a Dynata poll for the Institute of Public Affairs, which got a positive result of just 28% by priming respondents with a leading question and then emphasised that the proposal would involve “laws for every Australian”. JWS Research got only 43% in favour and 23% against, but its response structure was faulted by Goot for including a “need more information” option, which ruled the 20% who chose it out of contention one way or the other.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,748 comments on “Miscellany: redistributions, referendums and by-elections (open thread)”

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  1. Holdenhillbilly says:
    Thursday, April 13, 2023 at 4:41 pm
    Japan’s population shrank by 556,000 in 2022 from a year earlier to 124.9 million for the 12th straight year of decrease, as the number of Japanese nationals saw its largest drop on record, government data showed Wednesday.
    As of Oct. 1, the population, including foreign residents, stood at 124,947,000, with the number of Japanese nationals down 750,000 to 122,031,000, the largest margin of decline since comparable data were made available in 1950, the data said.
    The trend indicates an urgent need for Japan to establish a social system to cope with the dual challenge of a declining birthrate and a graying population.
    ……………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………….
    I’m not sure what the problem is in Japan because when I visited there several years ago I commented to Ms 98.6 that 99% of people on the street and anywhere you went seemed to be young people ie roughly between 15 and 30 and I’m talking about millions of them everywhere you went, especially in the crowded cities.
    Have they all stopped bonking or have they decided not to have kids at all ?

  2. now the current mayor former clp member attacked dutton and price for politicizing violents suddenly they were insuolting the town the former mayor damian ryan ran for clp in 2022 3election using this hopeing to win the local federal seat

  3. Inner Westie @ #1149 Thursday, April 13th, 2023 – 1:52 pm

    Dutton is making easy work for his media team.

    A few word swaps from these pronouncements five years ago, and hey presto!

    The good citizens of Alice Springs are “scared to go out to restaurants” because of “Aboriginal gang violence”, Peter Dutton has said, in an interview attacking the supposed lack of deterrence of crime in Alice Springs.

    The Opposition Leader told 2GB on Wednesday that the good citizens of Alice Springs were “bemused” when they looked “at the jokes of sentences being handed down” due to “political correctness that’s taken hold”.

    “There’s no deterrence there at the moment,” he said.

    Has he even considered for a moment that harsher sentences may not be the solution? Of course not. His mindset is of the policeman that he used to be.

  4. ryan was mayor from 2008 to 2021 and price served on cowncil froom 2015 to 2021 they both resigned to run for federal parliament

  5. Team Katich says:
    Thursday, April 13, 2023 at 4:35 pm
    Cronus @ #1190 Thursday, April 13th, 2023 – 4:00 pm

    Team Katich says:
    Thursday, April 13, 2023 at 4:22 pm
    Either way, he certainly showed those who were saying eariler in the year he was having a sophomore slump.

    One v.minor note; his +/- was -3. SGA had +15. SGA also had 3 steals. I havent watched the game yet – probs a good reason for the +/- discrepancy.
    ———————————————————

    It was a very good first play-off game for the 20yr old.
    Play-in game.
    ————————-
    True, still, pretty fly for a white guy.

  6. Real life of Murdochs is more sensational than any current TV Soap operas

    Rupert Murdoch: Claims ex-wife Jerry Hall burnt effigy of medial mogul after being dumped by email

    https://www-perthnow-com-au.cdn.ampproject.org/v/s/www.perthnow.com.au/news/world/rupert-murdoch-claims-ex-wife-jerry-hall-burnt-effigy-of-medial-mogul-after-being-dumped-by-email–c-10332083.amp?amp_gsa=1&amp_js_v=a9&usqp=mq331AQGsAEggAID#amp_tf=From%20%251%24s&aoh=16813682563627&csi=0&referrer=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.google.com&ampshare=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.perthnow.com.au%2Fnews%2Fworld%2Frupert-murdoch-claims-ex-wife-jerry-hall-burnt-effigy-of-medial-mogul-after-being-dumped-by-email–c-10332083

    “How gratifyingly ironic and, oh, how very timely. Just as viewers of Succession are left wondering whether the story can possibly survive the death of its patriarchal media-mogul star, Logan Roy, comes the infusion of real-world drama, courtesy of the very figure on whom many say the TV series is based.

    Indeed, it is hard to recall a moment when fact and fiction have seemed quite so tantalisingly entwined. But days after news of the demise of Roy was filling the airwaves and social media chatrooms, a sensational report was being published into the whirlwind life and troubled times of the tycoon Rupert Murdoch.

    It appeared in Vanity Fair, the snooty New York magazine which for years has forensically dissected every twist and turn in the Murdoch family’s fortunes, good and bad. In its latest issue it reveals what it claims is the inside story of how Murdoch abruptly ended his marriage to Mick Jagger’s ex Jerry Hall by email and how she, “devastated and humiliated”, made an effigy of her husband which she then ceremonially burned.”

  7. Boerwar @ #1197 Thursday, April 13th, 2023 – 4:43 pm

    ‘C@tmomma says:
    Thursday, April 13, 2023 at 4:40 pm

    It seems as though China still hasn’t realised that the world can blockade China economically, or otherwise, just as easily as the other way around. Hugh White doesn’t seem to have realised it either.’
    ——————————
    He most probably has and he has most probably noticed that China accounts for a third of our foreign trade.

    Cut your nose off to spite your face?

    Both countries have noses.

    China is a big market for Australia, sure, however, it has been reported that the Australian producers that China economically put in the deep freeze, in the end, were glad to have been forced to diversify their markets and to no longer have all their trade eggs in one basket, subject to the whims of China.

    This can be a template for the other markets for Australian goods, and as far as materials for the coming Renewables Revolution, it’s a good thing to not have China vacuum up all the raw ingredients for production of what is required so as to corner the market and sell it back to us so they can profit. Or, to use it as a hostage and a bargaining chip to coerce the rest of the Western world to bend to their will.

    There are another 7 billion people in the world that we can sell to and buy from. India, for a start, is racing to replace China in many areas of manufacturing.

  8. C@T

    “ The assistant Indigenous Australians minister, Senator Malarndirri ”

    An excellent response from the Minister demanding facts and pointing out Dutton’s responsibility to report facts.

  9. They’re coming after Birmingham.

    Two prominent Coalition senators have said it would be “untenable” for Liberal Senate leader Simon Birmingham to not fall in line with the opposition’s stance to oppose the Indigenous voice to parliament.

    Birmingham’s fellow Liberal from South Australia, rightwing firebrand Alex Antic, claimed Birmingham’s reluctance was “troubling”; while Nationals senator Bridget McKenzie also criticised his position.
    (Guardian updates at 16:20)

  10. Macca RB
    As a 66year old Baby Boomer, I can assure you that Menzies is as irrelevant to many of us, as he is to Non-Baby Boomers.

    Talking to some of my Baby Boomer colleagues, who are of a conservative inclination, they appreciated the stability and ‘firm hand’ of Menzies. (Not all, BTW.)

    To me, it sounds like Menzies was staid and backward-looking, and what they saw as stability I would call somnambulance.

  11. So Dutton’s trip to Alice Springs is another own goal for him, he really has very poor judgement.
    I think we can be sure Jacinta Price will be the new shadow aboriginal affairs minister. Shadow AG- no idea

  12. Cronus @ #1209 Thursday, April 13th, 2023 – 4:59 pm

    C@T

    “ The assistant Indigenous Australians minister, Senator Malarndirri ”

    An excellent response from the Minister demanding facts and pointing out Dutton’s responsibility to report facts.

    Yes, it’s vitally important for the government to counter Peter Dutton’s fabrications in real time and to pointedly explain what he should be doing instead of using the troubles that Alice Springs is experiencing for his political ends.

  13. Shogun
    To me, it sounds like Menzies was staid and backward-looking, and what they saw as stability I would call somnambulance.
    —————
    He would be staid and backward looking to the left just as Whitlam is looked at as a radical by conservatives.

  14. ‘C@tmomma says:
    Thursday, April 13, 2023 at 4:58 pm

    Boerwar @ #1197 Thursday, April 13th, 2023 – 4:43 pm

    ‘C@tmomma says:
    Thursday, April 13, 2023 at 4:40 pm

    It seems as though China still hasn’t realised that the world can blockade China economically, or otherwise, just as easily as the other way around. Hugh White doesn’t seem to have realised it either.’
    ——————————
    He most probably has and he has most probably noticed that China accounts for a third of our foreign trade.

    Cut your nose off to spite your face?

    Both countries have noses.
    ….’
    ——————–
    Have you got the slightest notion of what happens to the Australian economy if a third of its trade goes overnight?
    It collapses.

  15. Rupert.. just an old dick with a sever personality disorder …..
    ( use reader view in browser to bypass paywall) ..

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2023/04/12/11-words-ended-rupert-murdochs-marriage-jerry-hall/

    You’ve got mail – and a divorce

    A detailed account of Rupert Murdoch’s swift and sudden divorce from his fourth wife has been given to Vanity Fair by friends of the Texan model, who said it was Mr Murdoch who initiated the split completely out of the blue.

    Tom Cashin, a close friend of Ms Hall, said she was “devastated, mad, and humiliated” by what happened. She told friends she made an effigy of her ex-husband, tied dental floss around its neck and burned it on a grill.

    According to the magazine, she was waiting to meet Mr Murdoch at their home in Oxfordshire last June when she checked her phone and saw an email from her husband.

    It said: “Jerry, sadly I’ve decided to call an end to our marriage,” and went on: “We have certainly had some good times, but I have much to do…My New York lawyer will be contacting yours immediately.”

  16. When I first became aware of politics, Menzies had been Prime Minister forever. My mother liked him, my father didn’t and called him “pig iron Bob”. Menzies was regarded as a safe pair of hands, even if a bit stodgy and old fashioned. Whitlam was fresh and exciting, bit a but scary to many.

    Many Australians back then liked their politics safe and boring. In fact, that’s what John Howard was promising 30 years later.

  17. Who here knew that Ukraine is actually the country in Eastern Europe with the least antisemitism, as measured by ‘unwillingness to accept Jews as fellow citizens’? I didn’t, but the Pew Research Center released this survey result back in 2016:

    https://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank/2018/03/28/most-poles-accept-jews-as-fellow-citizens-and-neighbors-but-a-minority-do-not/

    In case the map image doesn’t copy properly, here are the rankings, from least to most unaccepting of Jews as fellow citizens:

    Ukraine: 5%
    Bulgaria: 7%
    Serbia: 7%
    Bosnia-Herzegovina: 8%
    Croatia: 9%
    Latvia: 9%
    Estonia: 10%
    Belarus: 13%
    Georgia: 13%
    Moldova: 13%
    Russia: 14%
    Hungary: 14%
    Greece: 16%
    Poland: 18%
    Czechia: 19%
    Romania: 22%
    Lithuania: 23%
    Armenia: 32%
    (Austria, Slovakia, Montenegro, Albania, Kosovo, Macedonia and Türkiye not surveyed.)

    Russians are nearly three times as likely as Ukrainians to want to reject Jews as fellow citizens. Ironic, given one of Moscow’s ‘casus belli’ for invading Ukraine was ‘denazification’.

  18. Have you got the slightest notion of what happens to the Australian economy if a third of its trade goes overnight?
    It collapses.

    How good is globalisation and interdependence?

    There is a school of thought that these two things were a precursor (causation?) to WWI.

  19. I will have to buy Vanity Fair for the first time ever for this Murdoch article.

    The stuff in The Age is just so juicy!

    I especially liked the last para:

    “Sherman states, “Two people close to James told me he is biding his time until he and his sisters can wrest control from Lachlan after Rupert is gone.”

    And after that, it’s Operation Endgame. “James sees destroying Fox News as his mission in life,” a senior Fox staffer told Vanity Fair.”

    12ft.io/www.theage.com.au/culture/tv-and-radio/succession-meets-real-life-vanity-fair-s-inside-scoop-on-rupert-murdoch-20230413-p5d07n.html

    All power to that man’s sword!

  20. From African Gangs to Aboriginal Gangs, Dutton’s desperate, rattled and cyncial performance makes for a sorry sight. The wheels are falling off the the outdated steam train referred to as the L/NP. The driver is unfit for service and the passengers clueless, on an inland rail line to no where.

  21. I don’t know how those figures were gathered but it is actually quite impressive that Ukraine is so low on the list.
    It is also quite sad that from one in 20 and up to 1 in 3 in that set of countries is anti-semitic.
    I wonder what that figure would be for Australia?

  22. Well, we’ve had more posts about Menzies (left office 57 years ago) than Ukraine (fighting for its life today), plus several about some sporting event, so I don’t think any Ukraine quota has been breached.

  23. ‘S. Simpson says:
    Thursday, April 13, 2023 at 5:46 pm

    From African Gangs to Aboriginal Gangs, Dutton’s desperate, rattled and cyncial performance makes for a sorry sight. The wheels are falling off the the outdated steam train referred to to as the L/NP. The driver is unfit for the job and the passengers clueless, on an inland rail line to no where.’
    ——————————————————
    The question I have been asking myself is whether Dutton knew all this was going to happen and that he now has the agenda exactly where he wants it. He has transmuted a national issue of principles into a gutter level shitfight about the Alice.

  24. Who’d have thought? Dutton claimed he spoke to lots of shoppers but it seems he boycotted Indigenous businesses.

    Lhere Artepe, which represents Arrernte traditional owners of Alice Springs and manages several businesses in town, said it had not been invited to speak to Dutton on any of his visits to the town. The Lhere Artepe chief executive, Arrernte man Graeme Smith, said Dutton’s comments were “insulting”…

    Smith said Lhere Artepe owns three IGA supermarkets in town and manages a retail store in the main street. “We own much, much more business than the people he is speaking to, and so if he’s speaking to the business sector, he is forgetting that Lhere Artepe contributes over $20m annually to the economy of Alice Springs, and employs over 200 staff across our enterprises,” Smith said. “Not only are we native title holders, we’re a major contributor to this economy.”

    Smith said as an Arrernte man he wants a voice to stop the “chronology of failed policies” in improving the lives of Indigenous people.
    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2023/apr/13/report-it-to-police-aboriginal-territorians-react-angrily-to-peter-duttons-claims-of-alice-springs-violence

  25. New book by Australian reporter Paddy Manning hints at Succession-style feud with ramifications for US rightwing politics

    The author, Paddy Manning, writes: “A Wall Street analyst who has covered the Murdoch business for decades and is completely au fait with the breakdown in the relationship between the brothers [Lachlan and James Murdoch], volunteers off the record that it would be ‘fair to assume Lachlan gets fired the day Rupert dies’.”
    But all four grownup Murdoch children – Lachlan and James, their sister Elisabeth Murdoch and their half-sister Prudence MacLeod – will be key players in the eventual succession.

    “In a plausible scenario,” Manning writes, “after Rupert has passed and his shares are dispersed among the four adult children, the three on the other side of Lachlan could choose to manifest control over all of the Murdoch businesses, and to do it in a way that enhances democracies around the world rather than undermining them.

    “In this scenario, the role of Fox News has become so controversial inside the family that control of the trust is no longer just about profit and loss at the Murdoch properties. In one view that has currency among at least some of the Murdoch children, it is in the long-term interests for democracies around the world for there to be four shareholders in the family trust who are active owners in the business.”

    Last month, Rupert Murdoch was reported to be seeking to merge News Corp, which owns newspapers outside the US including the Times, the Sun and the Australian, with Fox, which includes Fox News and Fox Sports, which shows prized NFL games.
    A former Murdoch senior executive told the Guardian then the plan had been “in the works for two years. I give it a 75% chance it will happen, 25% that it will be blocked. It’s all about Lachlan. Rupert is in his 90s – this is his last deal, it’s succession planning.”

    Discussing the belief that “Lachlan gets fired the day Rupert dies”, Manning writes that it is “a formula for instability and intra-family feuds that must weigh on the minds of directors of both Fox and News Corporation as they contemplate the mortality of the 91-year-old founder, although they deny it.

    “A source close to members of the Murdoch family questions the extent of succession planning by the boards of Fox or News Corporation and whether discussions among the directors can be genuinely independent, as corporate governance experts would like.
    “‘Rupert has total control over all the companies as long as he is alive,’ the source says. ‘It’s an unrealistic expectation that the boards of those companies are going to use their voices to manifest independence. What is their succession plan? What if something happens to Lachlan?’”

    https://www.theguardian.com/books/2022/oct/31/rupert-murdoch-successor-news-corp-paddy-manning-book

  26. “The university grad, 22, is now a senior parliamentary adviser for John Barilaro”

    Yeah, the title of “senior adviser” is meaningless in politics isn’t it. 22 years old fresh out of uni, daughter of Barnaby, straight to “senior adviser”. Are the junior advisers only there when they get out of primary school for the day?

  27. The Murdoch family trust: how the scions could battle for control

    Rather than seek her maximum entitlement, Anna demanded that Murdoch’s assets were put in trust both for her children — Lachlan, Liz and James — and Prue, Murdoch’s child from his first marriage.

    The trust’s governance is crucial. Murdoch representatives hold four of the eight votes on Cruden until his death, while the children’s nominees have one each.
    Cruden decides by majority on how to vote Fox and News Corp stock, according to people familiar with the working rules; there is no deadlock provision; if anybody litigates they are disinherited; and unanimous agreement is required to change the trust deeds or for any beneficiary to sell their stake or votes.

    James, Liz, Prue and Lachlan, in other words, all wield a veto over fundamental changes. As Murdoch acknowledged in 2000, “If the kids fought hard enough, the whole thing would break down; there is no mechanism against that happening.”

    It has left an increasingly tense situation, as Lachlan — whose views colleagues say are more conservative than his father’s — oversees a Fox News operation that James seems to consider a threat to democracy.

    While not naming Fox News directly, James in a 2021 interview with the FT chastised “insidious forces” behind the US Capitol attack unleashed by “outlets that propagate lies to their audience”.

    When the next generation takes over, James’s associates are hopeful he will be able to muster the support of his sisters to reset priorities, outvoting Lachlan within family companies if needed. “Lachlan will be out, it is as simple as that,” says one person who knows James well, speculating at how the trust will vote on company appointments.

    Others are more sceptical. Prue, who did not follow others into the family business, has kept good relations with all sides. “She is Switzerland,” says one friend of the family.

    The same description is sometimes also applied to her sister Liz, who as a media executive is much closer to the family’s stock in trade. Yet while Liz has exhibited a more liberal outlook than her father, she has remained guarded about her allegiances. At News Corp’s most recent summer party in London, one guest noted Rupert was flanked by Lachlan, Liz and Prue. Only James was absent.

    If family harmony is a goal, the omens are not good. Raffi Amit, a professor at the Wharton School of business who studies wealth management across generations of family enterprises, warned the Murdochs appeared to be “falling in every possible pitfall”.

    “Why? Because they don’t have a shared vision of what it is, as a group, they want to accomplish.”

    https://www.ft.com/content/58a752a3-0dad-433c-97cd-047b1ff7fe39

  28. ABC News (radio) just featured the call to Dutton to make a mandatory notification of any sexual/family abuse that he knows about.

    Let’s see how that works out…as a teacher, I and my colleagues needed to do this, come on Pete, fess up! Walk the walk!

  29. Albanese, who has been around for a very long time, knows that Australians don’t like politicians who scare the horses.

    He also knows that politically engaged pundits have little impact beyond other politically engaged people.

    So he is slowly- very slowly- rolling out Labor actions with the aim of entrenching them rather than going out in a blaze of glory.

  30. Lovely to see Dutton’s ‘dog act’ getting called out as it should.

    The nasty fascist was part of a Government that had more than a decade to take actions to close the gap. He is an utter disgrace and unfit to be a lollipop attendant, let alone leader of his majestys opposition. What a scum bag.

  31. Shadow attorney general Michaelia Cash? She’s been attorney general before.
    _______
    Yes, another lovely Liberal gentlewoman.

    Also a hypocrite too. She voted for Malcolm Turnbull in the leadership ballot to topple Tony Abbott as PM. After she lambasted Labor for toppling Julia Gillard suggesting Labor ‘didn’t have the guts’ to go to an election with her.

    https://www.theguardian.com/world/video/2013/jul/01/michaelia-cash-labor-sisterhood-penny-wong

  32. On April 12,
    Ukrainian civilians killed by Russia: 4
    Ukrainian civilians injured by Russia: 9
    Ukrainian cities/towns/villages attacked by Russia: 135
    Ukrainian oblasts attacked by Russia: 9
    https://kyivindependent.com/russian-attacks-hit-9-regions-kill-4-civilians-over-past-day/

    I’ve lost track of how many days running Moscow has been choosing to deploy its missiles to kill Ukrainian civilians in their own homes, businesses, workplaces, shops, schools, hospitals and parks. It feels like it’s been a long while now. 🙁

    Anyway, this is my sixth and final post on Ukraine today. Enjoy the evening!

    Доброго вечора, друзі!

    Слава Україні! Героям слава!

  33. Barnaby Thomas Gerald Joyce will turn 56 on the 17th of April.
    BTG Joyce will not be going anywhere for yet a while. Where else is this boofhead going to get the easy money, allowances and leave that Mr Joyce enjoys presently.
    Perhaps when he secures the leadership of the Nationals again, which is almost inevitable.

  34. Boerwar @ #1224 Thursday, April 13th, 2023 – 5:15 pm

    TK
    How so?

    The general theory of international relations liberalism is that if all countries trade with each other to the point they need each other then they wont start wars. Yet prior to WW1 the world saw major increase in globalisation and interdependence. That didnt help then.

    One may argue that today, Russia and China feel emboldened to do things that perhaps they wouldnt normally do because they know that countries who rely on their trade wont react boldly. As you point out, a collapse in trade with China will collapse our economy. Even a minor disruption to global trade can see major flow on effects like inflation and possible recessions and even threaten a first term president from being re-elected despite his challenger being an incompetent sociopath.

    Interdependence is like MAD. And just like MAD, a slightly cray cray state may choose to use that confidence to do things they shouldnt. That wont necessarily create major conflict. But it does feel the risk is rather high atm.

  35. To cut to the chase, Dutton wants people to think that Aborigines are drunkards, child molesters, wife beaters, criminals and their kids are running amok and will make your streets unsafe.

    So why should they have a Voice?

  36. Boerwar @ #1217 Thursday, April 13th, 2023 – 5:24 pm

    ‘C@tmomma says:
    Thursday, April 13, 2023 at 4:58 pm

    Boerwar @ #1197 Thursday, April 13th, 2023 – 4:43 pm

    ‘C@tmomma says:
    Thursday, April 13, 2023 at 4:40 pm

    It seems as though China still hasn’t realised that the world can blockade China economically, or otherwise, just as easily as the other way around. Hugh White doesn’t seem to have realised it either.’
    ——————————
    He most probably has and he has most probably noticed that China accounts for a third of our foreign trade.

    Cut your nose off to spite your face?

    Both countries have noses.
    ….’
    ——————–
    Have you got the slightest notion of what happens to the Australian economy if a third of its trade goes overnight?
    It collapses.

    If carefully managed, nothing of the sort will happen, ‘overnight’.

    So, Boerwar, with all your intense scrutiny of The Global Times, have you managed to read how China is doing deals with countries in Africa and South America, as a part of its Belt and Road Initiative, to source raw materials from countries there, at terms far more preferable to those they get from Australia, as Chinese companies are the majority shareholders? Or that Lula is in China this week to negotiate a trade deal? Does this not suggest to you that China is willing to trade wherever it is most favourable for it and wouldn’t hesitate to cut Australia out of calculations if that’s what would benefit it?

    Of course, we can still trade with China, and should, however, the days of putting so many eggs in the China basket are over and the good news is we are just about to sign a Trade deal with the EU and as of December last year we have the Australia-India Economic Cooperation and Trade Agreement (ECTA).

    https://www.dfat.gov.au/trade/agreements/in-force/australia-india-ecta

    Surely you can see that the diversification of trade that these things present is a good thing?

  37. sprocket_ says:
    Thursday, April 13, 2023 at 6:26 pm

    To cut to the chase, Dutton wants people to think that Aborigines are drunkards, child molesters, wife beaters, criminals and their kids are running amok and will make your streets unsafe.

    So why should they have a Voice?
    ______________
    We’ve seen the movie before:

    the Indigenous Affairs Minister at the time, Mal Brough, claimed that there were paedophile rings in all Aboriginal communities in the Northern Territory.

    He started receiving criticism in the media for his unsubstantiated claim. Then he received stunning vindication from the ABC, when it aired explosive allegations by a youth worker, who claimed that all of Brough’s lurid claims were true.

    There was a paedophile ring in an Aboriginal community in the Northern Territory, where Aboriginal children were traded as sex slaves, the youth worker claimed.

    But the youth worker, as it happens, wasn’t a youth worker. He worked for Brough, and had a history of making things up about life in Mutitjulu. For example, he claimed to have lived there for nine months. In fact, he had never lived there at all.

    https://newmatilda.com/2017/06/28/a-decade-on-the-fraud-of-the-nt-intervention-is-exposed/

  38. Arky

    On Bridget Joyce

    “The university grad, 22, is now a senior parliamentary adviser for John Barilaro”

    Yeah, the title of “senior adviser” is meaningless in politics isn’t it. 22 years old fresh out of uni, daughter of Barnaby, straight to “senior adviser”. Are the junior advisers only there when they get out of primary school for the day?”

    In systems where incomes are fixed and tied to levels, inflating position levels is simply a way of boosting salaries. I’d bet the percentage of ministerial staff rated “Senior” has gone steadily up under the LNP.

    Still at least 22 year old Ms Joyce had a degree. Former staffer Bruce Lehrman was made “senior adviser” in defence at age 23 as a uni drop out.

    When I started as an engineer in the public service back in the 1980s, there were fixed progression scales for each year of practice and training from when you started as a graduate, with salary increments. Going from “Graduate Engineer” to “Engineer” took a minimum of 5 years, assuming satisfactory performance. It took another 4 years to go from “Engineer” to “Senior Engineer”. Even if you did a PhD, it was impossible to become a Senior Engineer before you turned 30. I managed to make Principle Engineer when I was 36, by which time I had completed 3 degrees.

  39. Consider employment opportunities for Peter Craig Dutton, post parliamentary career, having become a member in 2001, aged 30 and likely to be looking for jobs outside of parliament at the age of 53.
    Nothing .
    Another Liberal deadhead leader looking for a post political career.

  40. ‘Team Katich says:
    Thursday, April 13, 2023 at 6:22 pm

    Boerwar @ #1224 Thursday, April 13th, 2023 – 5:15 pm

    TK
    How so?

    The general theory of international relations liberalism is that…’
    ————————————
    Ah. Thank you. I do worry that the paranoia which should be part of the basic survival tool kit of Putin and Xi simply runs out of their personal control.

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