Miscellany: redistributions, referendums and by-elections (open thread)

A review to what the electoral calendar holds between now and the next general elections in the second half of next year, including prospects for the Indigenous Voice referendum.

James Massola of the Age/Herald reports that “expectations (are) growing that former Prime Minister Scott Morrison will quit politics”, probably between the May budget and the end of the year, entailing a by-election for his seat of Cook. Please let it be so, because a valley of death stretches before those of us in the election industry out to the second half of next year, to be followed by a flood encompassing the Northern Territory on August 24, the Australian Capital Territory on October 19, Queensland on October 26 and Western Australia on March 8 the following year (UPDATE: It’s noted that the Queensland local government elections next March, inclusive as they are of the unusually significant Brisbane City Council and lord mayoralty, should rate a mention). A normal federal election for the House of Representatives and half the Senate could happen in the second half of 2024 or the first of 2025, the alternative of a double dissolution being presumably unlikely.

Redistributions will offer some diversion in the interim, particularly after the Electoral Commissioner calculates how many House of Representatives seats each state is entitled to in the next parliament on June 27. This is likely to result in Western Australia gaining a seat and New South Wales and Victoria each losing one (respectively putting them at 16, 46 and 38), initiating redistribution processes that are likely to take around a year. There is also an outside chance that Queensland will gain a thirty-first seat. The Northern Territory will also have a redistribution on grounds of it having been seven years since one was last conducted, although this will involve either a minimal tweak to the boundary between Solomon and Lingiari or no change at all. At state level, a redistribution process was recently initiated in Western Australia and should conclude near the end of the year. The other state that conducts a redistribution every term, South Australia, gives its boundaries commission wide latitude on when it gets the ball rolling, but past experience suggests it’s likely to be near the end of the year.

However, the main electoral event of the foreseeable future is undoubtedly the Indigenous Voice referendum, which is likely to be held between October and December. Kevin Bonham has a post on polling for referendum in which he standardises the various results, which differ markedly in terms of their questions and response structures, and divines a fall in support from around 65% in the middle of last year to around 58% at present. For those of you with access to academic journals, there is also a paper by Murray Goot of Macquarie University in the Journal of Australian Studies entitled “Support in the Polls for an Indigenous Constitutional Voice: How Broad, How Strong, How Vulnerable?” In narrowing it down to credible polls with non-binary response options (i.e. those allowing for uncommitted responses of some kind, as distinct from forced response polls), Goot finds support has fallen from around 58% to 51% from the period of May to September to the period of October to January, while opposition had risen from 18% to 27%. The change was concentrated among Coalition supporters: whereas Labor and especially Greens supporters were consistently and strongly in favour, support among Coalition fell from around 45% to 36%.

Forced response questions consistently found between 60% and 65% in favour regardless of question wording, while non-binary polls (i.e. allowing for various kind of uncommitted response) have almost invariably had at over 50%. Goot notes that forced response polls have found respondents breaking between for and against in similar proportion to the rest, which “confounds the idea that, when push comes to shove, ‘undecided’ voters will necessarily vote no”. However, he also notes that questions in non-binary polls that have produced active majorities in favour have either mentioned an Indigenous Voice or the Uluru Statement from the Heart, or “rehearsed the Prime Minister’s proposal to amend the Constitution”. One that conspicuously did not do any of these things was a Dynata poll for the Institute of Public Affairs, which got a positive result of just 28% by priming respondents with a leading question and then emphasised that the proposal would involve “laws for every Australian”. JWS Research got only 43% in favour and 23% against, but its response structure was faulted by Goot for including a “need more information” option, which ruled the 20% who chose it out of contention one way or the other.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,748 comments on “Miscellany: redistributions, referendums and by-elections (open thread)”

Comments Page 26 of 35
1 … 25 26 27 … 35

  2. From Josh Butler in The Guardian.

    ‘…
    Two prominent Coalition senators have said it would be “untenable” for Liberal Senate leader Simon Birmingham to not fall in line with the opposition’s stance to oppose the Indigenous voice to parliament.

    Birmingham’s fellow Liberal from South Australia, rightwing firebrand Alex Antic, claimed Birmingham’s reluctance was “troubling”; while Nationals senator Bridget McKenzie also criticised his position.
    …’
    ———————————–
    So the Liberals are infighting. PHON and the Nationals are sniping at the Liberals. Dutton, who has made a terrible political habit of sexualizing policy debates (particularly where this is a race element), is finally being hoist on his racist petard. Put up, Dutton, or STFU.

    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/live/2023/apr/13/australia-news-live-politics-cost-of-sydney-metro-jobs-figures-unemployment-indigenous-voice-to-parliament?filterKeyEvents=false&page=with:block-64379e158f08791e579d3de3#block-64379e158f08791e579d3de3

  3. I was just catching up with Peter Dutton’s miserable answer to a perfectly valid ABC question today (What evidence do you have…)
    In light of these sorts of answers, the defections already, and the very predictable scare tactics, I am wondering how well thought through DUtton’s “No” to the Voice was.
    https://www.abc.net.au/news/2023-04-13/peter-dutton-alice-springs-nt-crime-violence-crisis/102217208

    Was “No” to the Voice just a Constable’s call? (Dutton never made it to Captain 🙂 )

  4. I reckon the few genuine moderates still in the Liberal party are coming to the realisation that the best way to ensure their long-term political survival is to move to the crossbench with an eye towards forming a new centre-right party with the Teals. The trick will be doing so without looking like opportunistic rats.

  5. From Josh Butler the Guardian. Liddle has, bless her socks, broken ranks and is getting stuck into Dutton.

    ‘…

    During his visit to Alice Springs, Dutton on Thursday claimed that “young Indigenous kids are being sexually assaulted on a regular basis” in the town, however he has not provided evidence of the claims. He has since attracted criticism from those pointing out the legal requirement to report any such allegations he may be aware of to police.

    Dutton also spoke of how he believed the Voice – which the Coalition is opposed to – would not address crime in Alice Springs.

    Speaking on ABC’s The Drum on Thursday evening, Liddle echoed concerns that Dutton should report any allegations he is aware of.

    I’m beyond frustrated, actually, and (it’s) really disappointing that someone in a leadership position can stand up and say the same things over and over and over again.”

    She also criticised Dutton’s calls for a royal commission into the rate of abuse in Alice Springs.
    …’

  6. Consider employment opportunities for Peter Craig Dutton, post parliamentary career, having become a member in 2001, aged 30 and likely to be looking for jobs outside of parliament at the age of 53.
    Nothing .
    Another Liberal deadhead leader looking for a post political career.

    Opposition Leader of Queensland may be open to him in a few years.

    Though, probably not if he leads the Liberals to a thumping loss federally.

  7. 98.6
    A friend of mine just returned from a ski holiday/ training camp for her son in Japan. She remarked upon the number of derelict houses there.
    A 30 room hotel on the market for 500,000 AUD. Maybe a solution for our housing problem (sarc)

  8. Meanwhile, reported somewhere and I have forgotten where, Price is said to have said on Sky News that she is disappointed that people in Alice Springs are ‘desensitized’. I am not sure what the context is but it is not the sort of boots and all endorsement of Dutton that Dutton (and Credlin) may have been hoping for.

    As far as I can see Mundine is now the ONLY Indigenous leader of note who is solidly backing Dutton.

    Thorpe has been, as far as I can tell, strangely silent now that Dutton has joined forces with her. Thorpe and Dutton are 100% on stopping the Voice.

  9. ‘RP says:
    Thursday, April 13, 2023 at 6:47 pm

    98.6
    A friend of mine just returned from a ski holiday/ training camp for her son in Japan. She remarked upon the number of derelict houses there.
    A 30 room hotel on the market for 500,000 AUD. Maybe a solution for our housing problem (sarc)’
    ——————————————————–
    In part because of the ageing of society. But also in part because of deserting the country side. The same thing is happening in Europe. You can buy empty villages for a song. A similar thing is happening in Australia with townships dying as people move to the city or to regional centres.

  11. The West Coast of Japan is particularly hit by depopulation. A lot of the ‘love hotels’ are now boarded up, and the towns resemble the worst parts of little britain.

  12. Again from Josh Butler, the Guardian

    ‘…
    Birmingham joined a growing list of Liberals including Bridget Archer, Andrew Bragg, former Indigenous minister Ken Wyatt, Tasmanian premier Jeremy Rockliff and other state representatives who have outright opposed or shown great reluctance to the federal Liberals’ opposition to the voice.
    …’
    ———————————————————————
    Dutton essentially set himself one test before Aston and one test after Aston.
    The test before was that of a leadership contest with Albanese. Fail.
    The test after was holding the party together. Fail.

  13. Dutton the nice guy just isn’t happening, I guess he needs another reset.
    Maybe he should just go full gloves off and wear his nastiness on his sleeve.

  14. Dutton has been in the parliament since 2001 so qualified for the old MPs pension scheme.
    It’s been reported over the years that he has been involved in the family building business, dabbled in real estate (buying and selling a lot of properties) and his wife has interests in childcare centres.
    Hopefully he can get back to running the businesses soon.
    He is likely to have mates in Queensland. Morrison doesn’t have mates anywhere.

  15. Over the years Dutton has had his fascist sights on Africans, Aborigines, refugees that are not White, Muslims, Pacific Islanders (often with NZ citizenship). Who else have I missed?

    All the while he wanted white Afrikaners (the group that enforced Apartheid) let in through the back door.

    Anyone see a trend here, no?

  21. ‘sprocket_ says:
    Thursday, April 13, 2023 at 6:56 pm

    BW

    The only proven birth control is economic advancement.’
    ————————————-
    Yep. Within that frame: educating as well as empowering women economically.

  24. FiveThirtyEight is launching our national polling average for the 2024 Republican presidential primary. It shows former President Donald Trump receiving 49.3 percent of the national vote and Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis (who has not officially entered the race) receiving 26.2 percent. Former Vice President Mike Pence, another potential candidate, is at 5.8 percent, while declared candidate and former UN Ambassador Nikki Haley is at 4.3 percent.

  25. We can chalk in another lie: Dutton’s claim that he was going out to talk to elders.

    Dutton has not talked with the Central Land Council.
    Dutton has not talked with the owners of the biggest Indigenous business in town (turnover $20 million per annum).
    Dutton has not talked with Anangu Pitjantjatjara Yankunytjatjara.
    Dutton has not talked with any of the signatories of the Statement from the Heart while he was in Alice and out of his Canberra bubble.

    Liddle has dumped on Dutton
    The Town Mayor has distanced himself from Dutton’s remarks.
    Macarthy has dumped on Dutton.
    The NT police chief has dumped on Dutton.

  26. No 11 is a new one in Dutton’s bag of Voice lies:

    1. The Voice comes out of the Canberra Bubble and not from Indigenous people around Australia.
    2. Indigenous people do not support the Voice.
    3. The Voice will require thousands of public servants.
    4. The Voice will cost billions.
    5. The Voice is a threat to Australian democracy.
    6. The Voice is an Albanese Vanity Project.
    7. The Commonwealth Solicitor General advised against the wording.
    8. The Voice will be a ‘new arm of the government’.
    9. The Liberal Alternative Legislated Voice will be (local and regional). Not ‘national’ as he informed his Party Room .
    10. Albanese wants to silence people and depict them as ‘racist’.
    11. Dutton is going out to the regions to talk with Indigenous elders.

  27. It appears Speakman’s not going to Canberra:

    [‘Former NSW premier Dominic Perrottet has enacted his final move as leader of the NSW Liberal Party, calling the first party room meeting since his election defeat at which colleagues will end almost one month of speculation over who will replace him.

    The meeting, to be held in NSW Parliament next Friday, will mark a turning point for the party in the throes of an identity crisis since the Coalition was swept from government after 12 years on March 25.

    While former planning minister Anthony Roberts is the only MP to formally announce his intention to run for the vacant leader’s position, multiple party sources told the Herald former attorney-general Mark Speakman will also put his hand up.

    The former barrister, from the party’s dominant moderate faction, is the favourite among Liberal MPs but has been torn by the lure of a switch to federal politics should former prime minister Scott Morrison retire from the seat of Cook as expected.

    However, five senior Liberal MPs on Thursday told the Herald they believed Speakman had made up his mind and would nominate for leader. Speakman would have the backing of moderate heavyweights including former MP turned lobbyist and factional powerbroker Michael Photios.’]

    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/nsw/speakman-firms-as-liberal-leader-after-perrottet-officially-calls-leadership-spill-20230413-p5d0ab.html

  28. You’d almost think there’s someone in Dutton’s office setting the guy up, the extent to which this already stupid position is being futher ballsed up.

  29. To be honest, I thought the reports of Duttons FIFO visit and comments about child abuse in Indigenous communities and various crime was something from The Shovel – this is lowest common denominator politics, the guy hasn’t learnt from the African gangs scare 5 years ago.

    The comments from Dutton from the LNP now sound like the ravings from the dear old Pauline of the fringe RWNJ a few years back, and even then I thought she never believed the stuff was just playing to the ignorant base.

  31. Potato Pete is running in the 7th at Pakenham tonight.
    This 5 year old gelding is sired by Vancouver from a mare called Procrastination.
    It is not expected to win!

  32. Boerwar
    Yes I’m aware of the demographic trends.
    I find Peter Zeihan rather shallow but the points he makes on demographics are valid particularly in concern to China are very valid. Chinese population growth has started to go backwards and is going to shrink dramatically over the coming decades which with the growing recycling will have a dramatic effect on our iron ore exports in the not too distant future.

  34. ‘RP says:
    Thursday, April 13, 2023 at 7:25 pm

    Boerwar
    Yes I’m aware of the demographic trends.
    I find Peter Zeihan rather shallow but the points he makes on demographics are valid particularly in concern to China are very valid. Chinese population growth has started to go backwards and is going to shrink dramatically over the coming decades which with the growing recycling will have a dramatic effect on our iron ore exports in the not too distant future.’
    ———————————————-
    Yep on the recycling. Recycled metals will form a growing feedstock for China’s mills.
    Zeihan is either definitely right or definitely wrong. But he is always definitely.

  36. Scepticsays:
    Thursday, April 13, 2023 at 5:26 pm
    Rupert.. just an old dick with a sever personality disorder ….
    You’ve got mail – and a divorce
    A detailed account of Rupert Murdoch’s swift and sudden divorce from his fourth wife has been given to Vanity Fair by friends of the Texan model, who said it was Mr Murdoch who initiated the split completely out of the blue.
    Tom Cashin, a close friend of Ms Hall, said she was “devastated, mad, and humiliated” by what happened. She told friends she made an effigy of her ex-husband, tied dental floss around its neck and burned it on a grill.
    ……………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………….
    98.6 says :
    The course of true love never did run smooth.
    Maybe next time for both of them.
    Jerry is only 67 with not much baggage.
    Rupert at 92 has the world at his feet.
    I wish both of them all the best with their next marriage.

  37. BW: “Indigenous leader”

    Mundine may be indigenous, but I can’t see anything that would make me believe that he leads anything.

  39. C@t
    You would be surprised, but Dutton could be much more nasty, really todays display is much more closer to the nastiness that he has projected as a minister.

  40. ”
    Enough Alreadysays:
    Thursday, April 13, 2023 at 5:35 pm
    Who here knew that Ukraine is actually the country in Eastern Europe with the least antisemitism, as measured by ‘unwillingness to accept Jews as fellow citizens’? I didn’t, but the Pew Research Center released this survey result back in 2016:

    https://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank/2018/03/28/most-poles-accept-jews-as-fellow-citizens-and-neighbors-but-a-minority-do-not/

    In case the map image doesn’t copy properly, here are the rankings, from least to most unaccepting of Jews as fellow citizens:

    Ukraine: 5%
    Bulgaria: 7%
    Serbia: 7%
    Bosnia-Herzegovina: 8%
    Croatia: 9%
    Latvia: 9%
    Estonia: 10%
    Belarus: 13%
    Georgia: 13%
    Moldova: 13%
    Russia: 14%
    Hungary: 14%
    Greece: 16%
    Poland: 18%
    Czechia: 19%
    Romania: 22%
    Lithuania: 23%
    Armenia: 32%
    (Austria, Slovakia, Montenegro, Albania, Kosovo, Macedonia and Türkiye not surveyed.)

    Russians are nearly three times as likely as Ukrainians to want to reject Jews as fellow citizens. Ironic, given one of Moscow’s ‘casus belli’ for invading Ukraine was ‘denazification’.
    ”

    EA
    Which is probably only country where Jews lived for long time but were not persecuted in any way?

  43. First, the Voice was the product of work by Indigenous groups in consultation with communities, government agencies and other interested parties. It has been driven by Indigenous Australians for Indigenous Australians. Surely they are better placed to know what is likely to “deliver the practical outcomes” than a mansplaining white politician like Peter Dutton.

    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/dutton-s-opposition-to-the-voice-casts-him-as-the-mansplaining-whitefella-20230411-p5czmh.html

    Awkward. Nobody wants to be another mansplaining whitefella.

  44. Mavis

    Amazing cyclone.
    For the benefit of those unfamiliar with the area it is comforting to know that hardly anybody lives between Port Hedland and Wallal, where it is expected to cross the coast.
    There are cattle stations and caravan parks at Pardoo (and a roadhouse) and Wallal which will have been evacuated. And there’s a roadhouse a bit up the way at Sandfire Flat.
    That coast is a bit of a “cyclone alley” and the station and roadhouse owners will be as prepared as they can be.
    Inland, Marble Bar and Nullagine and a community at Parngurr are on the edge of the predicted tracks. A lot of old housing in the former towns and they would be hoping it’s only a glancing blow.
    Telfer is on the main track but as a mine town you would hope they prepared. A lot of exploration was going on out there last time I visited so hopefully the workers have been pulled out.
    Then there’s the rain. It’s been a wet late summer and autumn already up that way and the rivers will be flooding.
    One of my favourite parts of WA and when it all settles down the country will be green and the wildflowers blooming.

  45. Nicko @ #1289 Thursday, April 13th, 2023 – 7:35 pm

    C@t
    You would be surprised, but Dutton could be much more nasty, really todays display is much more closer to the nastiness that he has projected as a minister.

    I posted an article yesterday, from before the election, of him insulting Anthony Albanese, so he has lots of form. What interests me is the way that consummate Liberal politicians (and not in a good way), have of stating things in such a way that you would believe them, if you didn’t know otherwise, that they are telling the truth. It’s a sort of authoritative tone that they employ with a straight face.

  46. Boerwarsays:
    Thursday, April 13, 2023 at 7:30 pm
    ‘RP says:
    Thursday, April 13, 2023 at 7:25 pm

    Boerwar
    Yes I’m aware of the demographic trends.
    I find Peter Zeihan rather shallow but the points he makes on demographics are valid particularly in concern to China are very valid. Chinese population growth has started to go backwards and is going to shrink dramatically over the coming decades which with the growing recycling will have a dramatic effect on our iron ore exports in the not too distant future.’
    ———————————————-
    Yep on the recycling. Recycled metals will form a growing feedstock for China’s mills.
    Zeihan is either definitely right or definitely wrong. But he is always definitely.
    ………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………….
    98.6 says :
    How ironic that Australia sinks old navy ships to make artificial reefs for a sport called spearfishing that perhaps only one person in several thousand partakes in.
    While China could reuse the steel in them and pay us for the privilege.
    I saw a doco a couple of years back where it showed in fast motion a very large ship in a dock in India being dismantled piece by piece until there was literally nothing left.
    It was the best example of recycling I have ever seen or heard of.

  47. ”
    Arkysays:
    Thursday, April 13, 2023 at 5:51 pm
    “The university grad, 22, is now a senior parliamentary adviser for John Barilaro”

    Yeah, the title of “senior adviser” is meaningless in politics isn’t it. 22 years old fresh out of uni, daughter of Barnaby, straight to “senior adviser”. Are the junior advisers only there when they get out of primary school for the day?
    ”

    Was it Joyce or Barilaro that got fired up about the relationship between Barilaro and Uni Graduate is closer than”Senior advisor ” even though nobody suggested that?

  48. @98.6

    I also saw a documentary of the Indian ship recycling with all the pollution ans waste from it and the impoverished workers and dangerous working conditions, certainly not something to applaud

  49. Foolish move Dutton gaslighting in the NT about child abuse situations. Not smart to talk about anecdotes you can be legally called on to either put up or shutup.

  50. ”
    BKsays:
    Thursday, April 13, 2023 at 5:56 pm
    Shadow attorney general Michaelia Cash? She’s been attorney general before.
    _______
    Yes, another lovely Liberal gentlewoman.
    ”

    BK
    Don’t we call ‘gentlewoman’ a Lady? Or Is ‘gentlewoman’is used for something else? 🙂

Comments Page 26 of 35
1 … 25 26 27 … 35

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *