Miscellany: redistributions, referendums and by-elections (open thread)

A review to what the electoral calendar holds between now and the next general elections in the second half of next year, including prospects for the Indigenous Voice referendum.

James Massola of the Age/Herald reports that “expectations (are) growing that former Prime Minister Scott Morrison will quit politics”, probably between the May budget and the end of the year, entailing a by-election for his seat of Cook. Please let it be so, because a valley of death stretches before those of us in the election industry out to the second half of next year, to be followed by a flood encompassing the Northern Territory on August 24, the Australian Capital Territory on October 19, Queensland on October 26 and Western Australia on March 8 the following year (UPDATE: It’s noted that the Queensland local government elections next March, inclusive as they are of the unusually significant Brisbane City Council and lord mayoralty, should rate a mention). A normal federal election for the House of Representatives and half the Senate could happen in the second half of 2024 or the first of 2025, the alternative of a double dissolution being presumably unlikely.

Redistributions will offer some diversion in the interim, particularly after the Electoral Commissioner calculates how many House of Representatives seats each state is entitled to in the next parliament on June 27. This is likely to result in Western Australia gaining a seat and New South Wales and Victoria each losing one (respectively putting them at 16, 46 and 38), initiating redistribution processes that are likely to take around a year. There is also an outside chance that Queensland will gain a thirty-first seat. The Northern Territory will also have a redistribution on grounds of it having been seven years since one was last conducted, although this will involve either a minimal tweak to the boundary between Solomon and Lingiari or no change at all. At state level, a redistribution process was recently initiated in Western Australia and should conclude near the end of the year. The other state that conducts a redistribution every term, South Australia, gives its boundaries commission wide latitude on when it gets the ball rolling, but past experience suggests it’s likely to be near the end of the year.

However, the main electoral event of the foreseeable future is undoubtedly the Indigenous Voice referendum, which is likely to be held between October and December. Kevin Bonham has a post on polling for referendum in which he standardises the various results, which differ markedly in terms of their questions and response structures, and divines a fall in support from around 65% in the middle of last year to around 58% at present. For those of you with access to academic journals, there is also a paper by Murray Goot of Macquarie University in the Journal of Australian Studies entitled “Support in the Polls for an Indigenous Constitutional Voice: How Broad, How Strong, How Vulnerable?” In narrowing it down to credible polls with non-binary response options (i.e. those allowing for uncommitted responses of some kind, as distinct from forced response polls), Goot finds support has fallen from around 58% to 51% from the period of May to September to the period of October to January, while opposition had risen from 18% to 27%. The change was concentrated among Coalition supporters: whereas Labor and especially Greens supporters were consistently and strongly in favour, support among Coalition fell from around 45% to 36%.

Forced response questions consistently found between 60% and 65% in favour regardless of question wording, while non-binary polls (i.e. allowing for various kind of uncommitted response) have almost invariably had at over 50%. Goot notes that forced response polls have found respondents breaking between for and against in similar proportion to the rest, which “confounds the idea that, when push comes to shove, ‘undecided’ voters will necessarily vote no”. However, he also notes that questions in non-binary polls that have produced active majorities in favour have either mentioned an Indigenous Voice or the Uluru Statement from the Heart, or “rehearsed the Prime Minister’s proposal to amend the Constitution”. One that conspicuously did not do any of these things was a Dynata poll for the Institute of Public Affairs, which got a positive result of just 28% by priming respondents with a leading question and then emphasised that the proposal would involve “laws for every Australian”. JWS Research got only 43% in favour and 23% against, but its response structure was faulted by Goot for including a “need more information” option, which ruled the 20% who chose it out of contention one way or the other.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,748 comments on “Miscellany: redistributions, referendums and by-elections (open thread)”

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  1. it seems dutton is doing evry thing posible to insurealbanese and labor winn a land slide if he was not so stupiid you its like he is doing evry thinghe canhelp labor you would think he secretly likes albanese there might be a problim in alice springs butdesbite lack of coverige there is a lot of gang violents in south west sydney is he only concernned about violents in indiginis communities what about non indiginis and the treatement of female liberal staff he has jacinta price as cover in alice springs to claim he is not raceist this is the same mp who proudly aposed and sill does the apoligie rudd madei dont believe his apoligy for a second rudd got him right duton will never change

  2. Evan: “It baffles me why so many in the Murdoch empire worship Senator Price”

    ? It should be patently obvious. She is a quisling that can be rolled out to support anti-indigenous causes as a shield against being called a racist. Like Mundine.

  3. Cronus
    True, still, pretty fly for a white guy.
    ———————-
    The player way out in front on this years NBA ratings is white. Chap coming second is also white.

    Giddey is way down the list but as you mentioned, doing well for a 20yo and playing some of his best right now. SGA, at 24, is a star. And the team generally is playing well. They might make the playoffs. That would be great for Giddeys development.

  4. if themorrison lost modderit liberals dutton is the most extreme leader ever at least howard managed to hide his raceizm withstop the boats which helpedhim winn back one nation voters in 2001 linton crozbys devisive tacdicks do not work like perottits pockies stunt maybi yarin finklestien can get a real job and liberals like the tories can ditch highering crozbeys spin doctors there tricks are not working distract with dead cats perottits was pockies duttons alice springs

  5. no wonder Pauline Hanson now thinks she is an unofficial member of the Shadow Cabinet.

    This is another really bad thing for the Liberals, if seen too close to PHON, it becomes really bad look for them. similar dynamics between Labor and the Greens.

  6. Steve

    Interesting the Olivia reading was ratified years after event

    Vance was next best.

    Severe Tropical Cyclone Vance was a tropical cyclone that struck Western Australia during the active 1998–99 Australian region cyclone season, and was also one of six tropical cyclones to form off the coast of Australia during that season. When making landfall the Learmonth Meteorological Office (35 km south of Exmouth) recorded the highest Australian wind gust of 267 km/h (166 mph).[1] The previous highest gust was 259 km/h (161 mph) at nearby Mardie during Cyclone Trixie.[2] This record was surpassed in 2010 after a world record wind-gust of 408 km/h (254 mph) at Barrow Island during Cyclone Olivia in 1996 was declared official by the World Meteorological Organisation.

  7. Does anyone else get a sense that Dutton’s visit to NT has the hallmarks of Downer’s interview from a telephone booth talking about “The things that Batter” a few days before he was rolled as leader?

  8. Re Aaron @10:13. John Howard is quite right wing but he is also a pragmatist. He combined traditional conservatism, middle class welfare, election sweeteners / bribes, dogwhistling combined with plausible deniability to drag the Overton Window several kilometres to the Right over a decade.

  9. Lynchpin ,
    By who and for what agenda?? They are all so aweful. Plus the locus of the LNP is in QLD. So who knows what the fuck will happen if Dutts is replaced.

  10. Julian Lesser has been called a Labor stooge by Andrew Bolt, while Peta Credlin has asserted that Lesser was out of his depth and unqualified for his now former shadow portfolios.
    These are the media people who prop up Peter Dutton.
    Meanwhile, two Coalition Senators have criticised Simon Birmingham for his decision not to actively campaign for a no vote.

  11. Frednk
    Not much of a gambler, just repeating what I’d read on the ABC, we’ll know more tomorrow just glad I’m not in it’s way.

  12. Dutton and the Right of the L/NP, in cahoots with News Corp, appear to be conducting a purge of moderates from the party using the Voice as means to do so.

  13. By the end of this term? The Liberal Party, as it stands, is already a grievance party for old, white, rich, conservative, poorly-educated, cisgender, straight men, mostly from rural and regional areas, and their syncophanting wives.

  14. “By the end of this term the Liberal Party will be a regional Anglo grievance party.”
    ——————-
    I think they’re already are seen that way.

    I don’t think your average Australian is particularly fussed one way or the other about the Voice but are pretty skeptical of Dutton and his barely concealed racism and fascist tendencies constantly calling out media agencies that posit questions that he thinks doesn’t align with his worldview. I think Mark McGowan observations on Dutton seem fair “he’s an extremist, he doesn’t represent modern Australia at all, he doesn’t seem to listen and is extremely conservative…and I don’t think he’s that smart, I don’t really think there is much there”. I think the Liberal party is dead under Dutton they need to take a leap to the centre very soon if they have any hope of remaining relevant, the Labor party at this point looks most likely to be the party of the centre/centre right in the future.


  15. Cronussays:
    Thursday, April 13, 2023 at 9:34 pm
    “ Dominion’s lawyers are now asserting Fox had belatedly divulged that Murdoch was not only executive chairman of Fox Corp but also the executive chair of Fox News.

    Fox’s legal team countered that the late disclosure was due to ignorance rather than duplicity and (bizarrely) that Murdoch himself had no idea until recently that he was the channel’s executive chair.”

    Sounds just like Morrison.

    https://www.smh.com.au/business/companies/the-murdoch-brand-is-on-trial-as-dominion-pressure-escalates-20230413-p5d07o.html

    Cronus
    Are they saying that Rupert Murdoch is senile at the age of 92. 🙂

  16. MelbourneMammothsays:
    Thursday, April 13, 2023 at 11:10 pm
    “By the end of this term? The Liberal Party, as it stands, is already a grievance party for old, white, rich, conservative, poorly-educated, cisgender, straight men, mostly from rural and regional areas, and their syncophanting wives”.

    I thought we already had one of those.
    The National Party!

  17. Dutton’s response to the ABC question, that it was such an ABC question is pure MAGA playbook. It can only be hoped that somewhere in the heads of journalists the thought that they may actually enhance their careers by collectively holding the lying bastards to account.
    The liars hate it…on camera and questioned about your bullshit…how embarrassment!
    Where to now for Dutton?

  18. Dog’s Brunch @ #1271 Friday, April 14th, 2023 – 5:51 am

    Dutton’s response to the ABC question, that it was such an ABC question is pure MAGA playbook. It can only be hoped that somewhere in the heads of journalists the thought that they may actually enhance their careers by collectively holding the lying bastards to account.
    The liars hate it…on camera and questioned about your bullshit…how embarrassment!
    Where to now for Dutton?

    I hope that the ABC journalists shake themselves out of their overt support of the Liberals.

  19. Washington: The FBI arrested an employee of the US Air Force National Guard over the leaks online of classified US documents that embarrassed Washington with allies around the world.

    US Attorney General Merrick Garland said the FBI arrested the man, Jack Teixeira, “in connection with an investigation into alleged unauthorised removal, retention, and transmission of classified national defence information”.

    The FBI said its agents had made an arrest and were conducting “authorised law enforcement activity at a residence in North Dighton, Massachusetts”.

    Video images played on news channels showed heavily armed officers in Massachusetts accompanying a young man wearing a gray t-shirt and bright red shorts into a waiting car. His head was bowed and his hair was close-cropped.

    The New York Times earlier reported that Teixeira was a National Guardsman who led Thug Shaker Central, an online group where about 20 to 30 people shared their love of guns, racist memes and video games. The Times cited interviews and documents it reviewed.

    https://www.smh.com.au/world/north-america/us-arrests-21-year-old-jack-teixeira-in-connection-with-classified-intelligence-leak-20230414-p5d0d9.html

    I’d say the guy knew they were on to him and so the ‘bright red shorts’ were a nod to his allegiances.

  20. Everything the corrupt lib/nats and their propaganda media units try , keeps on backfiring on them.
    They still do not get it

  21. Evan: “Peta Credlin has asserted that Lesser was out of his depth and unqualified for his now former shadow portfolios.”

    The Credlin who, as Abbott’s cabinet secretary, convened a Cabinet meeting with nothing on the agenda?

    Priceless!

  22. The Spud in Alice.
    My wife, a more casual observer of politics, noticed, immediately on the SBS News that she thought that there was something familiar about the Alice Springs cake shop bloke.
    I looked a little more attentively and realised that he was the same, “man in the street – concerned citizen”, that was spoken to and interviewed by the Spudleader during his previous trips to the Alice.
    Surely, he wouldn’t be both a concerned resident and a CLP member who happened to be the local cake shop bloke, too!

  23. The opposition leader, Peter Dutton, is being accused of misrepresenting his visit to the Western Australian town of Leonora, with locals claiming he was more interested in their views on the cashless debit card, than canvassing their opinion on the Indigenous voice to parliament.

    Dutton said he travelled to communities, including Leonora, about 800km north-east of Perth, seeking grassroots opinions on the voice and this had helped inform the Liberal leader’s decision to oppose the yes vote.

    However, locals who spoke to Guardian Australia say Dutton had limited discussion with them about the voice, including at a dinner with Indigenous elders. Dutton tweeted a picture of this meeting which took place in February.

    James Calyun, a Martu man from Meekatharra and his partner, Samantha Banks, a Wongatha woman, met Dutton. The pair claim the visit was not about finding out what people thought about the voice, with the main topics being the Indue card and social issues.

    “No one has actually spoken about the voice to us in those visits from Peter Dutton,” he said.

    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2023/apr/14/peter-dutton-accused-of-misrepresenting-locals-views-on-indigenous-voice-to-parliament

  24. C@tmomma @ 6.55pm
    Re: The Cake Shop Bloke.
    Thanks C@t.
    My wife will be elated when I show her your picture postings, confirming her suspicions regarding the cake shop bloke!

  25. The discussion about whether or not Isla is just a bit of wind reminds me of my father opening his shop up after a news-free Christmas and responding to a customer’s, “Isn’t dreadful about Darwin?” With “A couple of bombs during the war and they’ve never stopped whinging about it.”

  26. Saudi Arabia is wooing IPL owners and India’s cricket board with the goal of creating a Twenty20 league that only the IPL could rival for financial scale.

  27. Good morning Dawn Patrollers

    Pro-Voice Liberal MP Julian Leeser says a crucial parliamentary inquiry into the referendum must act like the High Court and test the wording of the constitutional amendment in a bid to find a compromise and ensure the vote succeeds.
    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/voice-inquiry-must-test-wording-or-risk-failure-leeser-20230413-p5d03p.html
    Dutton’s opposition to the Voice casts him as the mansplaining whitefella, declares barrister Ian Roberts who says his call for more details about the Voice suggests a fundamental lack of understanding of our Constitution, and the decision to oppose its creation will long be remembered for the sheer absurdity of the explanation that followed.
    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/dutton-s-opposition-to-the-voice-casts-him-as-the-mansplaining-whitefella-20230411-p5czmh.html
    The No vote sought by Peter Dutton will change the country – and could spell the end of the long reconciliation walk, writes Ian Anderson who says there are no second chances in this Voice referendum.
    https://www.afr.com/politics/federal/there-are-no-second-chances-in-this-voice-referendum-20230411-p5czg6
    The opposition leader, Peter Dutton, is being accused of misrepresenting his visit to the Western Australian town of Leonora, with locals claiming he was more interested in their views on the cashless debit card, than canvassing their opinion on the Indigenous voice to parliament.
    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2023/apr/14/peter-dutton-accused-of-misrepresenting-locals-views-on-indigenous-voice-to-parliament
    The Liberal Party, under Dutton, is completely out of step with modern Australia and it is no surprise that it is rapidly imploding, opines Michelle Pini who says Peter Dutton is merely the small-minded gatekeeper of all the reactionary, retrograde philosophies of a bygone Australia, ensuring the Liberal Party remains unelectable for a generation.
    https://independentaustralia.net/politics/politics-display/slow-implosion-of-liberal-party-accelerates-under-dutton,17417
    An Indigenous Voice to Parliament is a moment whose time has come, writes historian Jenny Hocking.
    https://johnmenadue.com/an-indigenous-voice-to-parliament-a-moment-whose-time-has-come/
    The newly elected Labor government has sacked its most senior transport official, Rob Sharp, just hours after it announced a whole-scale review of a Sydney metro network that Premier Chris Minns said needed “rescuing”. Michael McGowan reports that the secretary of Transport for NSW is one of a number of department bosses sacked, as the new government swings the axe across the public service.
    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/nsw/minns-swings-the-axe-as-department-bosses-sacked-20230413-p5d0cg.html
    Annika Smethurst tells us how the Victorian government is warning people to expect a bit of a horror state budget.
    https://www.theage.com.au/politics/victoria/victoria-s-dire-budget-means-brakes-will-be-slammed-on-major-road-projects-20230413-p5d030.html
    Michelle Grattan says that Jim Chalmers is grappling with a budget where economics and politics pull in different directions.
    https://theconversation.com/grattan-on-friday-chalmers-grapples-with-a-budget-where-economics-and-politics-pull-in-different-directions-203759
    The gun club at the centre of a NSW Liberal Government corruption scandal became a financial disaster at the expense of taxpayers. NSW’S Wagga Wagga would become a “blazing star of the southern universe” thanks to millions in taxpayer grants, disgraced former state MP Daryl Maguire told Gladys Berejiklian in a secretly recorded telephone conversation. The reality is more crash and burn, says Anthony Klan.
    https://independentaustralia.net/politics/politics-display/perrottet-approved-gun-club-robbed-taxpayers-point-blank,17419
    Big business has accused the Albanese government of pursuing ideological restrictions on casual employees and labour hire that would entrench outdated working practices.
    https://www.afr.com/work-and-careers/workplace/bca-takes-hard-line-on-casuals-labour-hire-changes-20230413-p5d07e
    Meanwhile, Uber Eats will offer grocery deliveries from Coles supermarkets under a new deal involving 500 of the supermarket chain’s stores across Australia. Thousands of Coles products will be available to order through the app, which gig economy workers will pack from grocery store shelves and then aim deliver within 60 minutes in metro areas.
    https://www.theguardian.com/business/2023/apr/13/uber-eats-and-coles-supermarkets-to-offer-deliveries-in-australia-under-new-deal
    The chief of the peak nursing professional body says it could take five to 10 years for the sector to recruit enough staff to meet ­Anthony Albanese’s target for 24/7 nurses in residential aged care facilities, warning there is “absolutely no way” the industry will meet Labor’s July 1 deadline. Australian College of Nursing chief executive Kylie Ward also expressed concern that providers would be forced to shut down under the legislated requirement to have at least one registered nurse on site at all times.
    https://www.theaustralian.com.au/nation/aged-care-rules-to-set-off-collapses/news-story/4eebd2a2ecbdce4829aafdc1d94fdc61?amp
    Until politicians are paid by the hour, the gig economy will be a full-time stress, writes Dom Knight.
    https://www.smh.com.au/business/workplace/until-politicians-are-paid-by-the-hour-the-gig-economy-will-be-a-full-time-stress-20230412-p5czzm.html
    Qantas is taking us on a long-haul ride and Australians have had enough, argues Nick Dryenfurth.
    https://www.smh.com.au/national/qantas-is-taking-us-on-a-long-haul-ride-and-australians-have-had-enough-20230413-p5d04w.html
    The Defence Department has outdone itself with the AUKUS submarine project. In Paul Keating’s words, “it’s the worst deal in all history”. That’s not just because of the staggering $386 billion price tag, but because of the form the program is to take. Former submariner Rex Patrick looks at the most astonishingly irrational part of the announcement.
    https://michaelwest.com.au/rue-britannia-britannia-and-rue-aukus-subs/
    Car makers warn Australia risks missing out on more efficient models and should mimic Joe Biden’s proposed changes to drive sales of electric vehicles. Mike Foley and Nick Toscano who tell us how sweeping changes to fuel efficiency standards were proposed by the US Environmental Protection Agency yesterday and which are forecast to cut the country’s emissions by 40 per cent by the end of the decade.
    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/world-s-rejected-cars-heading-our-way-if-poor-fuel-standards-remain-20230413-p5d04i.html
    Has the Fed broken the back of inflation? Stephen Bartholomeusz says the US bank failures were a warning sign that the tightening of conditions was starting to break things. There is a risk that if policymakers tighten conditions much more, more and bigger things might break.
    https://www.smh.com.au/business/the-economy/has-the-fed-broken-the-back-of-inflation-20230413-p5d02g.html
    The FBI have arrested a 21-year-old air national guardsman in Massachusetts suspected of being responsible for the leak of US classified defence documents which laid bare military secrets and upset Washingon’s relations with key allies.
    https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2023/apr/13/pentagon-leaked-documents-suspect-arrested
    A new investigation by Vanity Fair reveals hidden truths about Rupert Murdoch, his warring family and just how similar they are to that TV show.
    https://www.smh.com.au/culture/tv-and-radio/succession-meets-real-life-vanity-fair-s-inside-scoop-on-rupert-murdoch-20230413-p5d07n.html
    Regardless of who wins the blockbuster defamation battle between Rupert Murdoch’s Fox News and Dominion Voting Systems, the media titan and his cable news company have sustained serious damage and the blows are set to intensify next week as the trial begins, writes Elizabeth Knight.
    https://www.smh.com.au/business/companies/the-murdoch-brand-is-on-trial-as-dominion-pressure-escalates-20230413-p5d07o.html

    Cartoon Corner

    David Rowe

    David Pope

    Mark David

    Simon Letch

    Cathy Wilcox

    Matt Golding



    Jim Pavlidis

    Andrew Dyson

    Glen Le Lievre with a gif

    https://twitter.com/i/status/1646276912174727170
    Alan Moir

    Mark Knight

    Leak

    From the US















  28. A Massachusetts Air National Guard member was arrested Thursday in connection with the disclosure of highly classified military documents about the Ukraine war and other top national security issues, a breach that has raised questions about America’s ability to safeguard its most sensitive secrets.

    The guardsman, an IT specialist identified as 21-year-old Jack Teixeira, was taken into custody without incident after FBI officers converged at his Massachusetts home.

    He is to be charged under the Espionage Act, which makes it a crime to remove or transmit classified national defense information, Attorney General Merrick Garland said. In his brief statement from the Justice Department podium, Garland did not reveal a possible motive, but accounts of those in the online private chat room where the documents were disclosed have depicted Teixeira as motivated more by bravado than ideology.

    Even as the investigation continues into the highest-profile intelligence leak in years, with sensitive information that was shared in the chat room ending up circulating around the world, the arrest is nonetheless a pivotal moment. The emergence of Teixeira as a primary suspect is bound to raise questions about how such a profound breach, one that the Pentagon termed a “very serious risk to national security,” could have been caused by such a young, low-ranking service member.

    “We entrust our members with a lot of responsibility at a very early age. Think about a young combat platoon sergeant, and the responsibility and trust that we put into those individuals to lead troops into combat,” said Brig. Gen. Patrick Ryder, a Pentagon spokesman. Teixeira’s specialty in the Air National Guard was as a “cyber transport systems specialist,” essentially an IT specialist responsible for military communications networks, including their cabling and hubs.

  29. Thank you, BK.

    ‘The opposition leader, Peter Dutton, is being accused of misrepresenting his visit to the Western Australian town of Leonora, with locals claiming he was more interested in their views on the cashless debit card, than canvassing their opinion on the Indigenous voice to parliament.
    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2023/apr/14/peter-dutton-accused-of-misrepresenting-locals-views-on-indigenous-voice-to-parliament
    —————————————–
    The natives are restless.

  30. >I’d say the guy knew they were on to him and so the ‘bright red shorts’ were a nod to his allegiances.

    The NYT had finally lost all patience and named the guy, this after every outlet in the country had described his *private* discussion forum in detail. The mystery was why official investigators were taking so long.


  31. The newly elected Labor government has sacked its most senior transport official, Rob Sharp, just hours after it announced a whole-scale review of a Sydney metro network that Premier Chris Minns said needed “rescuing”. Michael McGowan reports that the secretary of Transport for NSW is one of a number of department bosses sacked, as the new government swings the axe across the public service.
    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/nsw/minns-swings-the-axe-as-department-bosses-sacked-20230413-p5d0cg.html

    Why didn’t Albanese government do this at Federal level when they got elected in May, 2022?

  32. US Supreme Court allows $6 billion in student loan debts to be canceled, possibly impacting up to 200,000 loans.


  33. Big business has accused the Albanese government of pursuing ideological restrictions on casual employees and labour hire that would entrench outdated working practices.
    https://www.afr.com/work-and-careers/workplace/bca-takes-hard-line-on-casuals-labour-hire-changes-20230413-p5d07e

    Ven: Yeah so that you (Big business) don’t pay Super and leave entitlements to casual employees by implementing the rules of labour hire for last 25 years

    BK Dawn patrol: Until politicians are paid by the hour, the gig economy will be a full-time stress, writes Dom Knight.
    https://www.smh.com.au/business/workplace/until-politicians-are-paid-by-the-hour-the-gig-economy-will-be-a-full-time-stress-20230412-p5czzm.html


  34. The Defence Department has outdone itself with the AUKUS submarine project. In Paul Keating’s words, “it’s the worst deal in all history”. That’s not just because of the staggering $386 billion price tag, but because of the form the program is to take. Former submariner Rex Patrick looks at the most astonishingly irrational part of the announcement.
    https://michaelwest.com.au/rue-britannia-britannia-and-rue-aukus-subs/

    Rex Patrick on AUKUS submarines: “an astonishingly bad deal”

    Pfft. What does submariner Rex Patrick know about Submarine procurement? Only “Wolverines” and PBers who support AUKUS deal know about Submarine procurement.

    From the article: “The Defence Department has outdone itself with the AUKUS submarine project. In Paul Keating’s words, “it’s the worst deal in all history”. That’s not just because of the staggering $386 billion price tag, but because of the form the program is to take. Former submariner Rex Patrick looks at the most astonishingly irrational part of the announcement.

    Our senior Defence bureaucrats, both uniformed and civilian, have a remarkable but unexplainable knack when it comes to acquiring new equipment. When simplicity confronts them, they always find some way to make it complex. In the face of something manageable, they’ll always find a way to make it unmanageable. SNAFU is the order of the day.

    But, for Defence, it’s all OK – the admirals, air marshals, generals and top level public servants are immune from the consequences of failed procurement – no matter how big the disaster. No-one’s ever been fired from Defence for stuffing up an equipment purchase; after all, the wasted money is not theirs, it’s mine and yours.

    Looking at the AUKUS plan, which some are now labelling USUKA [pronounced “you sucker”] after Paul Keating called it “the worst deal in all history,” but proven and highly capable Virginia Class submarines, but then jump off that safe pathway to a high-risk program involving a country that has a track record of being late, and over budget, on its past and current submarine programs.

    It’s just reckless.

    Me: USUKA

  35. That Guardian piece re the Australia Institute having a crack at RBA is interesting. A few of us have been saying it on here but good to see someone important taking them to task – instead of the pretty poor effort at grilling the chairman got at estimates.

  36. 1. Brig. Gen. Patrick Ryder, a Pentagon spokesman said : Teixeira’s specialty in the Air National Guard was as a “cyber transport systems specialist,” essentially an IT specialist responsible for military communications networks, including their cabling and hubs.

    2.Tom Nichols of the Atlantic, who himself had security clearance for 35 years, said: “I hope this guy isn’t the leaker, because I’m gonna have some questions about how a Mass Air Guard guy got CJCS [Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff] briefing slides.”

    1. explains 2.

  37. Morning all. Thanks for the roundup BK. There is a lot of flak flying Dutton’s way and deservedly so. He has been caught out lying multiple times already.

    The No campaign is a bad strategic decision, being carried out badly.

    Dutton’s personal stocks will not be very high after this.
    This cartoon was deadly accurate.

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