The voting intention numbers from the latest fortnightly Essential Research survey, which include a 5% undecided component (up one), have Labor down one to 33%, the Coalition steady on 31%, the Greens steady on 14% and One Nation down one to 5%. The pollster’s 2PP+ measure has Labor up a point to 53%, the Coalition down two to 41% and undecided up one to 5% (the missing point being down to rounding).
The Essential Research report also features the pollster’s monthly “leaders favourability ratings”, which invite respondents to rate Anthony Albanese and Peter Dutton on scales from one to ten, as distinct from its separate and more conventional measure of approval and disapproval. After a seven point drop for Albanese in the previous survey for “positive” ratings (seven to ten), this survey has him up a point to 41%, while negative ratings (zero to three) are down four to 24% after a six point increase last time, and neutral (four to six) are up two to 30%. Peter Dutton is down three on positive to 23% and up two on negative to 35%, with neutral up a point to 34%.
A monthly question on national direction finds “right direction” sneaking back into the lead over “wrong track” after falling behind last time, being respectively up three to 41% and down four to 39%. Other findings from the poll include 48% support for raising the rate of JobSeeker with 29% opposed, and 52% support for allowing New Zealanders who meet character tests to become Australian citizens after four years of residency with 22% opposed.
Ahead of the budget, the poll finds 41% approving of Jim Chalmers’ performance as Treasurer with disapproval at 27%, although a forced response question on whether respondents were able to name him as Treasurer came down 67-33 against. Respondents were asked if they felt current spending in seven policy areas was too high or too low, which found health and Medicare leading the field by some distance on 56% for too low. Despite recent awareness-raising exercises on various fronts, only 18% felt national security and defence spending was too low while 26% felt it was too high, the latter being the biggest out of the seven.
Respondents were also asked if various categories of tax rate were too low or too high: only “taxes for international corporations” scored a plurality for too low, with super, property and income taxes all scoring a shade below 50% for too high. The poll was conducted Wednesday to Sunday from a sample of 1130.
Further recent polling:
• The most recent Resolve Strategic poll had 43% support for raising JobSeeker with 31% opposed; 34% support for cancelling or scaling back stage three tax cuts with 23 opposed; 60% support for increasing the corporate tax rate, with 13% opposed; 58% support for increasing the tax on resource company profits, with 12% opposed; and pluralities in favour of reducing concessions on negative gearing, capital gains, superannuation and franking credits. The poll was conducted Wednesday to Sunday before last from a sample of 1609.
• This week’s Roy Morgan voting intention results have Labor’s two-party lead narrowing to 53.5-46.5, which is apparently in from 56.5-43.5 (though it was 56-44 when I checked a week ago), from primary votes of Labor 36%, Coalition 35.5% and Greens 13% (my record of last week’s results shows Labor at 37%, Coalition 33% and Greens 12%). The poll was conducted last Monday to Sunday – as usual, nothing is offered on sample size, survey method of preference method (Kevin Bonham calculates that Labor is a point higher on two-party based on 2022 election flows).
• The Age/Herald reported on Monday that a YouGov poll for the pro-Voice Uluru Dialogue group, which encompassed a vast national sample of 15,060, had 51% in favour of an Indigenous Voice and 34% opposed, with yes leading 52-32 in New South Wales, 53-31 in Victoria, 47-40 in Queensland, 48-37 in Western Australia, 51-34 in South Australia, 50-35 in Tasmania, 64-24 in the Australian Capital Territory and 52-32 in the Northern Territory. Respondents were specifically asked how they would vote if the referendum to be held “on a proposal to establish a Voice to Parliament for Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islanders in the Constitution” were held today. This turns out to be the poll cited by Rebecca Huntley of The Guardian last week which found support among Indigenous people at 83%, from a substantial sub-sample of 732. However, the poll was conducted well over a month ago, from March 1 to 21.
Dandy Murray
“Let’s see if the NTEU can extract similar gains from the nations’ universities. At UQ, we are about 660 days past the expiry of our last EBA…”
Things weren’t much better at Adelaide Uni for Xanthippe before she moved to a different position.
The seemingly deliberate stalling of EBA negotiations by university administrations really needs to be clamped down upon. Stalling is a tactic that can obviously be used by large employers to put pressure on the worker body to accept inferior settlements. Getting conditions backdated doesn’t do people much good when they need the money, and some will have moved on in the meantime and never get compensated.
The law covering time to negotiate EBAs needs to be toughened up and penalties sufficient to have a deterrent effect imposed on those who deliberately stall.
”Is there ANYBODY out there who could POSSIBLY be impressed by Sussan Ley?”
I wouldn’t have thought so. She’s not winning any converts.
‘Socrates says:
Friday, May 5, 2023 at 5:22 pm
Dandy Murray
“Let’s see if the NTEU can extract similar gains from the nations’ universities. At UQ, we are about 660 days past the expiry of our last EBA…”
Things weren’t much better at Adelaide Uni for Xanthippe before she moved to a different position.
The seemingly deliberate stalling of EBA negotiations by university administrations really needs to be clamped down upon. Stalling is a tactic that can obviously be used by large employers to put pressure on the worker body to accept inferior settlements. Getting conditions backdated doesn’t do people much good when they need the money, and some will have moved on in the meantime and never get compensated.
The law covering time to negotiate EBAs needs to be toughened up and penalties sufficient to have a deterrent effect imposed on those who deliberately stall.’
——————————————-
IMO what has happened at unis is atrocious. Only one in three is permanent. The notion that unis are run for administrations by administrations is a national dead end.
Russians KIA May 2: 620 (155 scaled to US estimate)
Total Russians KIA: 193,210 (48,300 scaled to US estimate)
Daily average Russians KIA: 443.8 (111.0 scaled to US estimate)
Source: General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine
https://www.pravda.com.ua/eng/news/2023/05/5/7400765/
UK council elections were not so flash for Starmer’s alternate Tory Party by the look of it?
BREAKING: Left-wing councillor @CalCorkery, who was expelled from Labour for liking a leftwing Facebook page, has been RE-ELECTED as an independent.
⚪️ IND 37% (+37)
LAB 32% (-8)
LD 14% (-10)
CON 12% (+3)
GRN 4% (-2)
—
UKIP n/a (-20)
Turnout: 18% (-3)
And..
WWP
RE the Fin and Deloittes scandal being revisited- on 1 July, the FICAC starts business.
Pure speculation, but the media thrives on politics, conflict, criminality and ‘failing the pub test’. If sex is involved, all the better.
So my theory is that FICAC is being seen by the media as a free source of copy and content – so stirring the pot on questionable disclosures advances the cause.
‘Steve777 says:
Friday, May 5, 2023 at 5:28 pm
”Is there ANYBODY out there who could POSSIBLY be impressed by Sussan Ley?”
I wouldn’t have thought so. She’s not winning any converts.’
———————————–
I am VERY impressed by the Hon Ley, Deputy Leader of the Liberal Party in House of Representatives. She was dealt poor cards in the hand of life and has turned those cards into being the Deputy Leader of the Liberal Party. She evidently believes that this entitles her to knock Dutton off and become the LOTO.
And WHO KNOWs where the Liberals might shamble next?
You could be an engineer at Airbus, who have been offered a 2.5% pay increase and one new pair of work pants per year. 😐
The government may have changed but the employer bastards are still out there. 😡
“WWP
RE the Fin and Deloittes scandal being revisited- on 1 July, the FICAC starts business.
Pure speculation, but the media thrives on politics, conflict, criminality and ‘failing the pub test’. If sex is involved, all the better.
So my theory is that FICAC is being seen by the media as a free source of copy and content – so stirring the pot on questionable disclosures advances the cause.”
Ah thanks, interesting.
I’m impressed by the Deputy LOTO..
Ms Ley deliberately added a third “s” to her name when she was approaching her 20s, she revealed in a 2015 interview.
The unusual spelling didn’t draw any influence from the politician’s family or cultural background, but rather, from numerology.
“I read about this numerology theory that if you add the numbers that match the letters in your name you can change your personality,” she told The Australian.
“I worked out that if you added an ‘s’ I would have an incredibly exciting, interesting life and nothing would every be boring. It’s that simple.
“And once I’d added the ‘s’ it was really hard to take it away.”
https://www.news.com.au/finance/work/leaders/why-sussan-ley-has-an-extra-s-in-her-name/news-story/4c2bb14f934012a810d2001682e2cc42
Sohar @ #955 Friday, May 5th, 2023 – 5:33 pm
So are expelled Labour Councillors starting their march to victory, one Councillor and 1% at a time? 😆
So, tell me, Sohar, what’s the makeup of the rest of that Council?
And that particular Councillor appears to have picked up the 20% of the UKIP vote, the 10% of the LibDem vote and only 7% of the Labour vote. Bravo! *golfclap*
BK @ #950 Friday, May 5th, 2023 – 5:21 pm
Sussan Ley?
Perhaps Chalmers could have the reserve bank print a three trillion dollar note, and we’ll be in the black for decades.
I think that was what Nicholas used to post about all the time, currency issuing govts not having a real problem with debt in their own currency. Perhaps if the US does its trillion dollar coin first we could then copy them.
Cat
“The government may have changed but the employer bastards are still out there. ”
I agree, but the new government needs to change the law, and it should be a high priority. People are getting angry.
‘Sohar says:
Friday, May 5, 2023 at 5:33 pm
Not so Good for Starmer’s alternate Tory Party, ay?
BREAKING: Left-wing councillor @CalCorkery, who was expelled from Labour for liking a leftwing Facebook page, has been RE-ELECTED as an independent.
⚪️ IND 37% (+37)
LAB 32% (-8)
LD 14% (-10)
CON 12% (+3)
GRN 4% (-2)
—
UKIP n/a (-20)
Turnout: 18% (-3)
And..’
———————————
LOL. I assume you have been following Bonham’s figures. But really! You guys are right up there with the Liberal trolls. Next you will be telling me that you are personally extremely concerned because the Blocker is Bandting housing for 60,000 homeless people for their own good.
More hisssy fits than a cobra.
Some happy news to end the week. The Catholic Church has lost in court its latest attempt to avoid legal liability for clerical abuse damages by stalling till the accused was deceased.
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2023/may/05/marist-brothers-lose-bid-to-use-paedophiles-death-as-shield-against-child-abuse-claims?CMP=share_btn_tw
The judge quite rightly concluded that the defendant should not be seen to legally benefit from stalling the case. Perhaps we should appoint him to the FWC?
From Bonham’s post:
‘4:33pm After 60 of 230 councils, Labour has 633 councillors (up 110), the Tories 419 (down 209), the Lib Dems 308 (up 57) and the Greens 51 (up 29). The extrapolations now suggest a total loss of over 1,100 for the Tories, with Labour up almost 450 and the Lib Dems 278.’
Not sure where it is up to but the Labor vote is up around 7%. Not sure about that. Anyhoo, a day on which you pick up 450 councillors does seem to make it Starmer’s day.
Even if Sohar is wetting his pants about a single expulsion.
I wonder how the Greens’ transphobia v transphiliac cage fight is going? All strictly censored, of course.
“The notion that unis are run for administrations by administrations is a national dead end.”
That’s a succinct way to put it, but it lacks appropriate adjectives.
ET has come back as a Tory Lord commenting on the Council elections.
DM
LOL. You know me. Polite, balanced and oh, so restrained.
Sohar
UK council elections were not so flash for Starmer’s alternate Tory Party by the look of it?
Where did you look? Up your own arse?
Boerwar @ #969 Friday, May 5th, 2023 – 5:49 pm
Actually it’s pretty impressive that UK Labour managed to expel someone over liking a Facebook page, considering that the Vic Liberals can’t even get suspending someone for hanging out in-person with neo-Nazis right.
Sohar, that is a hideously embarassing take. A genuine “missing the forest for the trees” moment.
I haven’t been around today, did Louise Clegg’s fearmongering in the AFR about the Voice get a guernsey? Shame shame AFR for not disclosing that Louise Clegg is married to Angus Taylor and may not in fact be an impartial advocate (but then, you could tell that from the incredibly unsubtle writing style and trying to claim that the Voice is a “bigger than Ben Hur” change to our system of government)
Socrates @ #964 Friday, May 5th, 2023 – 5:42 pm
I can pretty much guarantee that Tony Bourke is keeping a close eye on proceedings and working on his next tranche of legislation.
“Actually it’s pretty impressive that UK Labour managed to expel someone over liking a Facebook page, considering that the Vic Liberals can’t even get suspending someone for hanging out in-person with neo-Nazis right.”
The Labor purge isn’t constrained by either ethics nor concepts of natural justice. That guy is lucky it was actually his facebook post, Starmer and his mates are just as likely to make up a complete lie and have you kicked out. It is astounding they can get away with it.
@WWP: “Anyone know why the fin did this?”
It’s Neil Chenoweth on the PWC story isn’t it? He’s a good egg. Respected as fuck too.
Shogun: Where did you look it up?
“Professor Sir John Curtice* says that in all the key council wards, the change in the vote since 2022 (so far) is:
• Greens +2%
• Lib Dems +1%
• Labour + 0.1%
• Independents +1%
• Tories -5%”
*Sir John Kevin Curtice FRSA FRSE FBA is a British political scientist who is currently professor of politics at the University of Strathclyde and senior research fellow at the National Centre for Social Research
BK @ #950 Friday, May 5th, 2023 – 5:21 pm
Nummmmmmerologists?
Sohar @ #955 Friday, May 5th, 2023 – 5:33 pm
Sohar, you are propagating untruths.
He was not expelled for liking a Facebook page, rather for joining and promoting a group called Momentum, a far left group which can be easily infiltrated by the Trots and ratbags like WWP, organise to take over branches, and has a standing policy of opposing sitting members. He has succeeded in a local council election (wow!). In a UK General Election behaviour like that is highly likely to ensure a Tory victory with less than 35 % of the popular vote.
Still amazes that Treasury, or whoever is the responsible agency, did not take strong and decisive action against PWC as a whole before now? It really is strange that there appears to be little consequence for this apart from the fellow losing his licence for 2 years (like, what?).
Russia’s Foreign Minister, Sergei Lavrov, has well and truly jumped the shark with this little gem:
“Russia’s foreign minister has said “any self-respecting country” would refrain from speaking to Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelenskiy following the apparent drone attack on the Kremlin.”
https://www.theguardian.com/world/live/2023/may/05/russia-ukraine-war-live-kyiv-shoots-down-own-drone-over-capital-zelenskiy-speaks-at-the-hague
I wonder how many national leaders will be following Lavrov’s advice here. I doubt Lavrov took himself seriously even while he was mouthing out his lines. I suspect he blew his stack at whichever Kremlin lackey put the speech before his eyeballs for his perusal beforehand. 😆
Bonham:
’11:43am With results in from 249 of the 792 key wards that the BBC is using for its Projected National Share (PNS), Labour is up 7.4% on 2019, the Tories down 1.2% and the Lib Dems up 1.1%.’
In a tweet on Saturday, Mr Corkery said the “sole reason” for the end of his party membership was because he shared an “innocuous” Facebook post in 2016 about the rise of Labour membership in Portsmouth.
The post, which has not been seen by the BBC, was from the page Portsmouth Socialist Appeal which was proscribed by the party in 2021.
https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-england-hampshire-64292514
He didn’t have the guts to stand as a Socialist Party candidate. 😆
WWP: “someone who made a series of pledges to win the leadership and then broke every single one of them.”
Wouldn’t want that to happen with the S3 tax cuts, would ya?
Too soon to say but what stands out, apart from the massive Starmer gains and the Rishi drubbing is the Lib Dems. It looks as if substantial part of the soft Tory vote has parked itself in the Lib Dems.
The other interesting thing is going to be the turn out.
‘Pi says:
Friday, May 5, 2023 at 6:25 pm
WWP: “someone who made a series of pledges to win the leadership and then broke every single one of them.”
Wouldn’t want that to happen with the S3 tax cuts, would ya?’
————————————
LOL
While the Brits may try their best, UK council results don’t map well onto GE results, mainly because FPTP tends to cause a substantial amount of strategic voting, which in turn favours the majors in GEs but also a greater tendency for both protest voting, and voting in people who are locally popular or who have got stuff done at the local level over party affiliation.
Also, Scotland, Wales and London don’t have council elections this year, so you aren’t looking at a representative electorate.
In any event, there is a separate topic for this, so observations are best placed there.
‘a r says:
Friday, May 5, 2023 at 5:55 pm
Boerwar @ #969 Friday, May 5th, 2023 – 5:49 pm
Even if Sohar is wetting his pants about a single expulsion.
Actually it’s pretty impressive that UK Labour managed to expel someone over liking a Facebook page, considering that the Vic Liberals can’t even get suspending someone for hanging out in-person with neo-Nazis right.’
————————
Actually, it is pretty impressive that both you and Sohar have drunk the kool aid on why he was given the heave ho. None so blind.
Just to put these UK council elections into context.
It is a mixed picture for Labour across the north of England so far. The party will have been disappointed not to wrest back control of Hull from the Liberal Democrats, who tightened their grip on Humberside thanks to policies including “making bus lanes peak-time only”.
Hardly nation changing issues…
There was a bit of chat about how the West, in particular the utterly wicked US, is goading China in order to bring on a war before China is ready.
Miraculously, China under a paranoid Xi does not do goading:
https://www.globaltimes.cn/page/202305/1290132.shtml
“Dutton joins Albanese for the first time to back end to Assange’s UK incarceration”
How many years has this gone on for and The Coalition and Dutton have said nothing?
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2023/may/05/dutton-joins-albanese-for-the-first-time-to-back-end-to-assanges-uk-incarceration
Prigozhin announces he’s packing his bags and leaving the Bakhmut front, in 5 days’ time:
“The Wagner mercenary group will leave Bakhmut on May 10 due to lack of ammunition, founder Yevgeny Prigozhin said in a video published online by his press service on May 5.
According to Prigozhin, Wagner’s offensive resources ended in April, and as a result, their losses “are growing exponentially every day.”
“I am withdrawing Wagner units from Bakhmut because, in the absence of ammunition, they are doomed to a senseless death,” Prigozhin said, adding that the Bakhmut offensive will be handed over to the Russian Defense Ministry.”
https://kyivindependent.com/prigozhin-wagner-will-leave-bakhmut-by/
https://www.pravda.com.ua/eng/news/2023/05/5/7400787/
https://www.theguardian.com/world/live/2023/may/05/russia-ukraine-war-live-kyiv-shoots-down-own-drone-over-capital-zelenskiy-speaks-at-the-hague#top-of-blog
I call that a concession of defeat from Prigozhin. So much for the ‘second strongest military power in the world’. Bella ciao!
Слава Україні! Героям слава! Слава нації! Смерть ворогам!
“ Serbian police said Friday they had arrested a man suspected of killing eight people and injuring at least 14 others in the country’s second mass shooting this week, following a manhunt through the night.”
Things are going crazy in Serbia this week, the second mass shooting in 48hrs.
https://www.news.com.au/breaking-news/eight-killed-13-injured-in-serbia-shooting-state-media/news-story/1004686303d6325ed8365fa40853b223
“Mirror mirror on the wall, who impresses most of all?”
ABC reports budget leak of large increase in aid to the Pacific.
A team in the NRL seems likely if V’Landys agrees
We Want Paul:
You do carry on from time to time. Starmer might not set the world on fire but he presents as a credible alternative to the incumbent whereas Corbyn was always unelectable. He (Starmer) should though denounce his knighthood & await elevation to the peerage, just like Clement, the 1st Earl Attlee – a class traitor Paul, clem?
_______________________________________
Great to see that ACT teachers are getting a substantial pay rise.
If they were even a smidgeon better in my formative years, I might not have ended up as an old has-been.
_______________________________________
I’m getting extremely excited after having witnessed the coronation of EII even though my memory of it is that of a five-year-old. That said, I hope to see a third…
Pueo says:
Friday, May 5, 2023 at 12:40 pm
Queensland coal projects cancelled over failure to provide environmental impact information
The federal government has cancelled two Queensland coal projects as the companies involved didn’t provide updated information on the environmental impacts.
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2023-05-05/queensland-coal-projects-cancelled-tanya-plibersek/102307350
………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………….
98.6 says :
All I can say to those two coal project companies is “Shame, Shame, Double Shame”.
Apologies to Ren and Stimpy.
Tanya is doing great in her new portfolio.
“I am withdrawing Wagner units from Bakhmut because, in the absence of ammunition, they are doomed to a senseless death,”
So… with ammunition, they would be doomed to a meaningful death?
Wwp,
Did the committee for public safety print a trillion unbacked assignat?
How did that go for them?