Miscellany: Freshwater Strategy polling, by-election latest and more (open thread)

An unorthodox set of voting intention numbers from Freshwater Strategy, more signs of a narrowing on the Indigenous Voice, and the closure of nominations for the Liberal National Party preselection in Fadden.

The Financial Review had a set of federal voting intention numbers on Friday from Freshwater Strategy, which were highly distinctive in having Labor leading by only 52-48, compared with 54-46 from the last such poll in December. The primary votes were Labor 34% (down three), Coalition 37% (steady), Greens 12% (steady) and 17% for the rest. Anthony Albanese was on 42% approval (down six) and 37% disapproval (up seven), a substantially narrower net positive rating than recorded by other pollsters, while Peter Dutton had less anomalous numbers of 30% (up one) and 42% (up four). A preferred prime minister question had Albanese with an usually narrow lead of 51-33, in from 55-29. The poll was conducted Monday to Wednesday from a sample of 1005.

Further findings from the poll:

• Support for the Indigenous Voice was down two since December to 48% while opposition was up ten to 39%, including a 20-point increase among Coalition voters and a seven point increase among Labor and Greens voters. This converted to 55-45 after exclusion of the undecided, in from 65-35.

• Only nine per cent felt the budget would put downward pressure on inflation and interest rates, compared with 52% who thought the opposite and 23% who said it would have no effect. Forty-eight per cent felt the country was heading in the wrong direction, up six, compared with 37% for right direction, down seven.

• Seventy per cent supported Peter Dutton’s call for sport gambling ads to be curtailed, with 13% opposed, and 59% supported his proposal to allow the unemployed to earn $150 a fortnight more without affecting their JobSeeker rate.

By-election latest:

Amy Remeikis of The Guardian reports five candidates have emerged for Liberal National Party preselection in Fadden, with nominations having closed last Friday and a ballot of eligible local members to be conducted this Friday. The Gold Coast Bulletin identifies four of them: Gold Coast councillor Cameron Caldwell, who is widely rated the front-runner; Dinesh Palipana, emergency doctor at Gold Coast University Hospital and the state’s first quadriplegic medical graduate; Fran Ward, founder of a charity supporting distressed farmers; and Owen Carterer, who would appear to have a low profile. “Long-term members” were backing Caldwell, but Palipana had support from “Young LNP party members linked to state MP Sam O’Connor”, though critics were arguing he would do better to run at the state election.

• The Age/Herald reported a spokesperson for Scott Morrison saying his departure from parliament was “not imminent”, and would certainly not be soon enough to allow for joint by-elections in Fadden and his seat of Cook. However, it could “possibly come at the end of the year”.

Other news from around the place:

David Penberthy of The Australian reported last week that bitterly fought Liberal Senate preselection looms in South Australia, the flashpoint being the position of Senator Alex Antic. Together with like-minded Queensland Senator Gerard Rennick, Antic withdrew parliamentary support from the Morrison government in protest against mandatory vaccinations, and has lately courted far right sentiment by mocking Volodomyr Zelenskyy in parliament and following it up with a theatrically disingenuous apology. Antic was elected from third position on the ticket in 2019, behind Anne Ruston and David Fawcett. As religious conservatives make headway in a push to take control of a party that took a distinctly moderate turn under Steven Marshall’s one-term state government, there are said to be some hoping Antic might be pushed to the top of the ticket (though an unidentified and presumably conservative party figure is quoted denying it), and others hoping he might be dumped altogether.

Sumeyya Ilanbey of The Age reports Victorian Liberal state president Greg Mirabella told state council yesterday that an external report into the Aston by-election found defeated candidate Roshena Campbell had “the highest recognition and positivity among Liberal names, even when compared with outgoing federal Liberal MP Alan Tudge”. This would not seem to sit will with a view that has taken hold in the party that Campbell’s lack of local connection to the seat explained the result, as reflected in Peter Dutton’s determination that a local should succeed Stuart Robert in Fadden.

• RedBridge Group has results from polling of Victorian voters on federal voting intention, which after exclusion of the undecided finds Labor on 41% (32.9% at the election), the Coalition on 34% (33.1%) and the Greens on 12% (13.7%). The pollster’s high-profile director of strategy and analytics, Kos Samaras, argues the Liberals’ dismal levels of support in the state among non-religous voters, Indian Australians and Buddhists in general puts it in an unwinnable position.

• In his column in the Age/Herald on Saturday, George Megalogenis wrote that “private polling for the Yes campaign is more encouraging” than this week’s Resolve Strategic result of 53-47 (although Kos Samaras of RedBridge argues social desirability bias effects in polling on such questions means proponents should not feel comfortable of even a national majority unless polling has it clear of 55-45). However, Megalogenis says “Queensland is now assumed as lost, with Western Australia doubtful”, with “Tasmania as the potential swing state”.

The West Australian provides a sketchy report of polling by Painted Dog Research gauging the opinions of 1409 voters in Western Australia on Anthony Albanese, Peter Dutton and Jim Chalmers. Albanese recorded an approval rating of “just under half”, with 26% dissatisfied, with Peter Dutton apparently scoring a parlous 16% approval and 48% disapproval. “About a third” approved of Jim Chalmers’ performance as Treasurer, while “just under a quarter disapproved”.

• The Age/Herald yesterday reported results on issue salience from last week’s Resolve Strategic poll, finding the cost of living with a huge lead as the highest priority issue, identified as such by 48% compared with 11% for health care, 10% for the environment and climate change and 8% for management of the economy. Cost of living has ascended to its present level from 16% last January and 25% at the time of the federal election in May.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,202 comments on “Miscellany: Freshwater Strategy polling, by-election latest and more (open thread)”

Comments Page 16 of 25
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  1. Nuclear power boosters should read this tweet. In Finland the long awaited Gen III nuclear reactor is finally online. It still can’t beat wind power on a cost basis.

    “Kees van der Leun@Sustainable2050·May 18
    Finland’s new nuclear power plant temporarily throttles its production as electricity price plunges. This will happen more frequently as Finland is experiencing a big wind power boom, with lower marginal cost of electricity than nuclear.”
    https://yle.fi/a/74-20032375

  2. Hey Player One! Stay away from my posts!
    Your only purpose in commenting is to provoke needless arguments where you constantly misrepresent the other poster and shift your ground.
    I will not further waste my time with you.

  3. I consider not establishing a national gas reserve so multinationals can maximise export profits, as an act of treason.

  4. I think if a student brings a firearm to a school, if found guilty then he or she should be jailed. If the student is too young to be jailed then a parent of the child is jailed.
    Of course there will be technicalities etc with this but too bad.
    IMO this has to be nipped in the bud.
    We copy too much US shit here.
    Don’t let guns be another one

  5. theunaustralian.net
    BREAKING: Barnaby Joyce Denies Being Caught In Parliament House With His Trousers Down. Claims To Be Merely Paying Tribute To Rolf Harris With His Infamous Jake The Peg Impression.

  6. Orbán’s Hungary is displaying petty spite towards war-torn neighbour Ukraine:

    “Hungary remains the only country among Ukraine’s neighbours that still maintains unilateral restrictions against Ukrainian agricultural imports.

    … Miriam Garcia Ferrer, European Commission Spokesperson for Trade and Agriculture: “There is still one country that has not cancelled its unilateral measures against agricultural exports from Ukraine. This should not necessarily affect Ukrainian transit [of grain], and it does not apply to the entire EU. But we offered a package of assistance on the condition that the unilateral measures were withdrawn. The country that has not done so is Hungary.”

    https://www.pravda.com.ua/eng/news/2023/05/24/7403579/

    Putin must be very proud of the lackey he has bought for himself to occupy the office of Prime Minister of Hungary. 😐

  7. Itza: “One example of the current state of non-urban service station plans for the immediate future would be the current northbound and southbound redevelopment at Pheasants Nest on the Hume H’way 70 Km south of Sydney, costed in the order of $50M.”

    No doubt about it, these things will be whatever consolidation remains for that business. And it could be a good one. People spending 30-45min in a place is better than people spending five minutes. Yeah yeah, rest every two hours. Let’s all be honest with one another here, if you’ve done any driving in oz, have you consistently done that? The only reason I do do that is when I ride my motorbike, because that’s how often you need to fill up.

    But this will effectively force 3-4 hr stops for everyone except specially designed long-haulers. If you’re not aware, the tesla truck reportedly has a 1MWh battery on it. It’s going to take a long time to change that industry though. So much of our freight in oz goes by road. Unless you live next to the ocean of course! It should lead to a change in culture, good or bad. These stops will inevitably be powered by local renewables power sources. They even run predominantly during the day. That means less big fat wires going out of the area, and less required to go in.

  8. The death toll among Ukrainian civilians struck by Russia’s military rose yet again today:

    “In the last 24 hours, Russian attacks were reported in nine Ukrainian oblasts – Sumy, Chernihiv, Kharkiv, Kherson, Zaporizhzhia, Dnipropetrovsk, Mykolaiv, Luhansk, and Donetsk.

    According to local authorities, two civilians were killed, and 17 more were injured in the Russian attacks.”

    https://kyivindependent.com/2-killed-17-injured-in-russian-attacks-against-ukraine-over-past-day/

    When will Russia’s military stop this daily killing of civilians? What do they think they are achieving?

  9. Victoriasays:
    Wednesday, May 24, 2023 at 8:32 am
    Vic budget targets big business, land holders and private schools who are no longer being exempt from pay roll tax.
    Sounds good to me.
    _____________________
    Has the Andrews govt ever done anything that has not sounded good to you ?
    Dumping toxic soil laced with PFAS next door to a primary school in Melbourne’s West.
    Victoria – Sounds good to me.

  10. The Age 24/05
    Premier Daniel Andrews has rejected concerns the state budget targeted everyday Victorians and says he does not accept it will drive up rental prices.
    _____________________
    Not one extra cent remember.
    Does anyone actually believe a word he says any more.


  11. Enough Alreadysays:
    Wednesday, May 24, 2023 at 5:38 pm
    Ven, what is your take on Modi’s meeting with President Zelenskyy at the G7 in Japan on the weekend?

    Already India is in somewhat bad books of Russia because Russian government money in Rupees (a lot of money apparently) are not released from banks in India on request of Russia. Lavrov was in India and complained publicly to the press in front of Minister.
    So I don’t know how Modi will approach Putin on talks with Zelenskyy.

  12. Kos Samaras
    @KosSamaras
    ·
    3h
    Apparently, increases in land tax have contributed to rental prices going up.

    Nope. Not true.


  13. A NSW police officer who allegedly tasered a 95-year-old woman at a Cooma aged care centre has been charged. Senior constable Kristian White, 33, has been charged with recklessly causing grievous bodily harm, assault occasioning actual bodily harm, and common assault.

  14. Treasury has confirmed it has referred the PwC tax scandal, involving former partner Peter Collins, to the Australian Federal Police for a criminal investigation. “PwC Australia’s former head of international tax, Mr Peter Collins, improperly used confidential Commonwealth information,” Treasury secretary Dr Steven Kennedy said in a statement Wednesday evening.

    “The emails that the Tax Practitioners Board tabled in Parliament on 2 May 2023 highlighted the significant extent of the unauthorised disclosure of confidential Commonwealth information and the wide range of individuals within PwC who were directly and indirectly privy to the confidential information.”

    “In light of these recent revelations and the seriousness of this misconduct, the Treasury has referred the matter to the Australian Federal Police to consider commencement of a criminal investigation.”
    Former PwC partner Peter Collins has been banned as a tax practitioner. The TPB board banned Peter Collins, the former PwC partner who leaked confidential government tax plans, from acting as a tax practitioner until next year.

    A 148-page document, released by senate estimates, detailed the evidence from the board’s investigation which revealed how confidential information on plans to combat multinational tax avoidance was shared widely among other staff and partners within the multinational firm, and marketed to clients.

  15. Ven @ Wednesday, May 24, 2023 at 6:31 pm:

    “Already India is in somewhat bad books of Russia because Russian government money in Rupees (a lot of money apparently) are not released from banks in India on request of Russia. Lavrov was in India and complained publicly to the press in front of Minister.
    So I don’t know how Modi will approach Putin on talks with Zelenskyy.”
    ==============

    Ven, thank you. I did not know of that negative interaction from Lavrov in India. What I was aware of, and commented upon in a post a few days ago, was the contrast in Modi’s posture towards Zelenskyy at the G7 (warm and respectful) with his posture towards Putin last September (polite, but firmly critical of Russian aggression). A striking contrast in those public statements was Modi’s references to phone calls he’d had with both Putin and Zelenskyy over the past 15 months –
    a) with Zelenskyy: how he had expressed sorrow over Ukraine’s plight;
    b) with Putin: how he had urged non-aggression “including in phone calls”.

    The more I take the time to observe how Modi actually interacts with Ukrainians and Russians, the more encouraged I am he is truly on Ukraine’s side rather than Russia’s – even while he tries to not burn bridges with Russia entirely. I was wondering if you agree.

  16. Opinion polls said Minns NSW Government is having Honeymoon. What Honeymoon? It introduced 2 bills and both are held by Cross benches in Assembly. That means that LNP will not co-operate with Government to pass legislation. What a Surprise that LNP is not cooperating?

  17. Holdenhillbilly @ #772 Wednesday, May 24th, 2023 – 6:39 pm

    A NSW police officer who allegedly tasered a 95-year-old woman at a Cooma aged care centre has been charged.

    Senior constable Kristian White, 33, has been charged with recklessly causing grievous bodily harm, assault occasioning actual bodily harm, and common assault.

    About time. The bodycam footage must have been damning.

  18. C@tmomma says:
    Wednesday, May 24, 2023 at 6:21 pm
    Sir Henry Parkes @ 5.47pm,
    Exactly.

    ____________________________________________________________
    Thank you for your support C@t.

  19. Team Katichsays:
    Wednesday, May 24, 2023 at 4:17 pm
    Finally a statement from the school. Not a bad response – although thumbs down to the committee that came up with this nonspeak;
    “I wish to reassure you that the school has implemented advice in order to manage this appropriately.”

    Under the circumstances I don’t think the parents of the other kids at that school will be even slightly reassured by that political speak without knowing exactly what it is that the school is implementing. I know I wouldn’t be.

    If a kid turns up with a gun and threatens other students with it I would want the little bastard out of there quick smart. Anything less than that would be totally unacceptable. We’ve seen the human suffering that guns can cause in schools in the USA. We don’t want it happening here.

  20. Impressed that Peter Martin closed down the crap re increased taxes by asking the very obvious question, well who do you expect to be taxed.

    We had a covid crises. The state is building for an increasing population. The guaranteed low interest rates didn’t happen. The issues have to be dealt with.

    The whining and winging and bullshit from the press and the opposition is not going to change the underlying facts..

    Changing from sales tax to land tax is going to free up housing. Good thing, going to effect me but so be it.

    Taylormade. The get Dan nonsense is a little tiresome. If the Liberal want to win an election they need to sort out their shit. No more crap trying to divide society.

  21. Trying to defend Labor for their sellout of Australian people to fossil fuel multi-nationals is a hopeless task.

    I advise not to go down that rabbit hole.


  22. Socrates says:
    Wednesday, May 24, 2023 at 5:40 pm

    Nuclear power boosters should read this tweet. In Finland the long awaited Gen III nuclear reactor is finally online. It still can’t beat wind power on a cost basis.

    “Kees van der Leun@Sustainable2050·May 18
    Finland’s new nuclear power plant temporarily throttles its production as electricity price plunges. This will happen more frequently as Finland is experiencing a big wind power boom, with lower marginal cost of electricity than nuclear.”
    https://yle.fi/a/74-20032375

    If price is below running cost then nuclear has a serious issue as the big component of the cost is sunk capital. If not running there is no return on that.

  23. The issue with the PWC scandal is it will be very hard to penalise the organisation due to the various tendering laws which are all tied up with international trade agreements. The government can’t exactly ban PWC from future government work with facing issues where they get sued for breaching the US Free trade agreement for example.

    They might have a decent chance of chasing PWC for lost revenue for it however. And that could be extremely costly – maybe Arthur Andersen costly.

  24. Funny how the NSW Police tasering has gone from “not much to see here” last Thursday to “there will be an enquiry and we can’t comment” to “police officer charged” in less than a week.

    The dinosaurs in charge in the NSW Force must be losing their grip. Normally they have been able to make this sort of stuff go away, aided by a Government that had their back and the likes of Hadley on radio.

    The commissioner has been a rabbit in the spotlight since day one.


  25. Rex Douglas says:
    Wednesday, May 24, 2023 at 7:23 pm

    Trying to defend Labor for their sellout of Australian people to fossil fuel multi-nationals is a hopeless task.

    I advise not to go down that rabbit hole.

    As Australia is rapidly moving to renewable your post is basically bullshit.And yes the time to try and argue against such bullshit has long past. Let the nutters post their nuts. You manage many in a day, the scroll wheel is available to all.

  26. https://www.pollbludger.net/2023/05/22/miscellany-freshwater-strategy-polling-by-election-latest-and-more-open-thread/comment-page-16/#comment-4114455

    … it would be interesting to see if anyone did a comparison between donations received, and projects, extensions, etc grants, waivers, deductions, etc approved since then.
    As soon as they accepted money from [not so much unions but] corporate donors they no longer could be considered independent.
    Be it shit lite or full of shit.

  27. Denying that both the L/NP and Labor have colluded with corporate media and the fossil fuel multi-nationals for decades to rip-off the Australian people and damage the environment, is to delude oneself.

  28. Rex Douglas says:
    Wednesday, May 24, 2023 at 7:37 pm

    Denying that both the L/NP and Labor have colluded with corporate media and the fossil fuel multi-nationals for decades to rip-off the Australian people and damage the environment, is to delude oneself.
    _________
    Nothing has been proven 🙂


  29. BK says:
    Wednesday, May 24, 2023 at 2:12 pm

    Sussan Ley is simply loopy!

    The yanks have Marjorie Taylor Greene, we have Sussan Ley.

  30. Kos can spin all he likes on land tax but rents will rise and the Andrews government will suffer a swing at the next state election.


  31. Enough Alreadysays:
    Wednesday, May 24, 2023 at 6:51 pm
    Ven @ Wednesday, May 24, 2023 at 6:31 pm:

    “Already India is in somewhat bad books of Russia because Russian government money in Rupees (a lot of money apparently) are not released from banks in India on request of Russia. Lavrov was in India and complained publicly to the press in front of Minister.
    So I don’t know how Modi will approach Putin on talks with Zelenskyy.”
    ==============

    Ven, thank you. I did not know of that negative interaction from Lavrov in India. What I was aware of, and commented upon in a post a few days ago, was the contrast in Modi’s posture towards Zelenskyy at the G7 (warm and respectful) with his posture towards Putin last September (polite, but firmly critical of Russian aggression). A striking contrast in those public statements was Modi’s references to phone calls he’d had with both Putin and Zelenskyy over the past 15 months –
    a) with Zelenskyy: how he had expressed sorrow over Ukraine’s plight;
    b) with Putin: how he had urged non-aggression “including in phone calls”.

    The more I take the time to observe how Modi actually interacts with Ukrainians and Russians, the more encouraged I am he is truly on Ukraine’s side rather than Russia’s – even while he tries to not burn bridges with Russia entirely. I was wondering if you agree.

    EA
    Whether posters on PB like it or Russia had been traditional ally of India atleast since Indo-China war in 1962 possibly even before because of strong Communist presence since Indian Independence.
    India buys a lot of military equipment from Russia.
    Also, now there is BRICS to deal with. So Indian governments since atleast 2000 had a balancing act to perform because ties with USA improved from around that time. Also, West gave cold shoulder to India as long as Indian ties with US were in not cordial. So you can understand why India is careful when it comes to dealing with West.

    I will provide one example how partial US was towards India.
    For a long time USA conducted lottery every year on Green cards (Permanent residence in USA). The US government gave 50000 Green cards to people from across the globe. They don’t have to stay in US to be allocated that Green card.
    The only catch was people of Indian origin need not apply. One should not apply if you are an Indian citizen or your spouse is Indian citizen or atleast one of your parents is Indian citizen or even if one of your 4 grand parents is Indian citizen.
    That applied only to people of Indian origin. Anybody else across is the world were eligible.
    Trump abolished this lottery system when he became POTUS.
    Ex-Australian PM Rudd treated Indian relations like dirt to please China.

  32. EMRS: Liberals Crash But Labor Doesn’t Pick Up The Pieces
    EMRS Lib 36 (-6) ALP 31 (+1) GRN 15 (+2) IND/OTHER 18 (+3)
    Election held now would deliver a very hung parliament
    Rebecca White retakes Better Premier lead, most probably as a result of disapproval of Jeremy Rockliff’s performance

    An eagerly awaited EMRS poll is up and as you would have been nuts to not expect, the Rockliff Liberal Government has been harshly whacked over its recent collapse into minority and its pursuit of a controversial AFL stadium. After over a year in which basically nothing happened in this quarterly series the Government has slumped six points to 36%. I have this as the Liberal Party’s third-lowest primary since February 2011 (when it was also at 36), beating only a 35 and a 34 polled during 2017, a time when the poll had serious issues that it later addressed with overestimating the Green vote.
    https://kevinbonham.blogspot.com/2023/05/emrs-liberals-crash-but-labor-doesnt.html

  33. Trying to defend Labor for their sellout of Australian people to fossil fuel multi-nationals is a hopeless task.

    I advise not to go down that rabbit hole.

    Tiny amounts in the grand scheme of things, alot of these companies spent millions undermining Labors carbon pricing in the past.
    Something you couldn’t care less about, a decade of nothing is what we got for that.


  34. Nicko says:
    Wednesday, May 24, 2023 at 8:37 pm

    Trying to defend Labor for their sellout of Australian people to fossil fuel multi-nationals is a hopeless task.

    I advise not to go down that rabbit hole.

    Tiny amounts in the grand scheme of things, alot of these companies spent millions undermining Labors carbon pricing in the past.
    Something you couldn’t care less about, a decade of nothing is what we got for that.

    Do remember the companies had the full support of the Greens.

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