Before we proceed to a brief summary of electorally relevant current events in federal politics, please note the other quality content that it’s pushing down the order: a guest post from Adrian Beaumont on the threat of US debt default and other international events, a post on a Tasmanian poll with a summary of recent events in that state, and a detailed analysis of results from last year’s federal election in thirteen seats in inner Melbourne.
• The Fadden by-election has been set for July 25, with nominations to close on June 23. As was covered in the previous post, a Liberal National Party preselection that has attracted five nominees will be conducted today. Phillip Coorey of the Financial Review reports that Anthony Albanese would rather Labor forfeit the by-election for a seat the LNP holds on a 10.6% margin, but must reckon with a local branch “agitating to run a candidate”.
• The New South Wales Liberal Party will hold its preselection this weekend to fill the Senate vacancy resulting from the death of Jim Molan in January. The field have candidates has narrowed to three: former state Transport Minister Andrew Constance, former state party president Maria Kovacic and Space Industry Association chief executive James Brown. The Sydney Morning Herald reports the latter has a long list of high-profile backers including John Howard, Julie Bishop and Dave Sharma.
• The Byron Shire Echo reports comedian Mandy Nolan will again run as the Greens candidate for the Byron Bay and Tweed Heads region seat of Richmond at the next federal election. Nolan added 5.0% to the party’s primary vote share last May to outpoll the Nationals, although preferences from right-wing minor parties pushed the Nationals candidate ahead of her at the final exclusion.
Socrates
I have come to suspect that the controlling emotions for rural conservative No supporters are more likely to be greed and bitter resentment, than any ignorance of history. This is in turn driven by a delusional belief that Aboriginal people are given lots of government money. This lie burns in many farming areas in long term economic decline.
So yes there is ignorance, festered by the Murdoch Newscorpse, but not in the way we think. Memes like the “Aboriginal industry” need to be stomped on in this regard.
————————-
There is a serious question for government because indigenous people are the most exposed to the welfare state and yet face the worst disadvantage of any group so something is seriously wrong.
Perun’s latest video. On long range fires in Ukraine.
https://youtu.be/wVNjqX5HQGQ
Mexicanbeemer
Yes I agree it is not rational – Aboriginal people face huge disadvantage. But I think government needs to counter this nasty and ill informed sentiment.
Night all. Happy birthday Kyiv.
Hi frednk @12.58pm
I appreciate your hard earned struggle although I have no experience of dyslexia. However, despite describing plurals, and past and present participles as decorations not to be worried about or put into writing, you do so yourself and they help to make your meaning clear. I agree that pronouns are wanking but you use them too. People often misunderstand phonetics. The International Phonetic Alphabet uses symbols to describe every sound of every language in the world. English is a Germanic language and pronunciation often seems to be counter intuitive to written vowels and consonants. The truth is that in English there are spelling patterns that create sounds and the IPA can be particularly useful when teaching them to speakers of other languages. Having said all that, I have retired and no longer care about such pedantry. The truth is language is transactional whether you are exchanging goods or ideas. The really important thing is that if you walk into a shop wanting a pie you don’t walk out with two sausage rolls. Please take all of this tongue in cheek and in no way a criticism of your post. Having seen many people struggle with written expression, I have nothing but respect for you.
Orange pea gravel, top of the hill.
Light upon my soles, I go. Go-lightly in my suede boots, somewhat split and buckled now, but comfy.
Out in the valley of the Swan, near a by-road, I found some cows. They lay together in the shade and out of the way of the wind, tucked against a hedge. It might have been jasmine. Quite dense and unruly, and very dark at the base. The cows were the colour of dried eucalyptus leaves; soft yellow-brown with some red-cream as well, and the hillside was green, very green, and tumbling to the creek edge down there, which was hidden by the reeds and the lilies. A southerly blew, not strong. The sun shone, not bright.
I parked the van on the roadside, on the orange pea gravel, with tufts of grass occurring. I was wanting to see better the falling of the land and the leaning of the fences and the tangling of the old vines. I’m wanting to paint here. On the Swan. I’m wanting to learn. There is a bridle track near Henley, beautifully dark and rough, and ambiguous. I might paint there too.
I might paint the cows, in their repose – yellow cows and green peace, descending.
Just felt an earth tremor here in Melbourne at 11.42 PM.
Yep. Got that tremor too. Woke my kid up.
Got the tremor here too in south east Melbourne
Pi wrote, Yep. “Got that tremor too. Woke my kid up.
Where are you? I’m in Ferntree Gully
Yep that was a big one. Hope there is no damage anywhere. Somewhere near the airport.
4.7 mag apparently.
Geoscience Australia has it measured at 3.8 Ml at depth of only 3 km just under the Oaklands Junction estate which is a few kilometres north of Melbourne Airport.
Currently, they have 5k felt reports submitted within the last 15 minutes.
My first check was the Melbourne subreddit where there was a thread with 160 comments in the time it took me to wander up the stairs and confirm with my wife yep, we both felt that, probably a little tremor.
It was very shallow hence probably why it was very short in duration but it was quite loud for me.
Nothing like the September 2021 which kept shaking for many seconds.
Yes it was short and sharp. Officials say 3.8
Quite disconcerting.
As soon as it occurred, a got an immediate earthquake notification on my phone, That in itself surprised me
I hope everyone in Melbourne is okay after the earthquake (earth tremor?) And not, all shook up. 😉
Parts of Melbourne have been rattled by a short, but relatively powerful earth tremor.
Geoscience Australia reported a magnitude 3.8 quake near Sunbury on Melbourne’s north-west fringe, at an estimated depth of three kilometres.
The quake struck at around 11.41pm on Sunday.
Residents across wide parts of the city reported feeling the quake, or being woken by the tremor.
Sunbury resident Corey Lainez, 41, told The Age the quake left a crack in the wall of his kitchen.
“I thought a car or truck had hit the house and before I could even stand up the dogs were running around the house barking,” he said.
“It was one very big, violent shake.”
The State Emergency Service said it was dispatching a crew to inspect a building that is reported to have suffered cracks in suburban Ascot Vale.
The SES also received reports of a cracked road around Mickleham.
The earthquake follows a magnitude 2.5 seismic event near Ferntree Gully, 30 kilometres south-east of Melbourne’s CBD, on May 16.
The Seismology Research Centre in Melbourne said it was possible there could be minor damage, due to the quake being so shallow.
“It woke me up, got me out of bed,” said seismologist and chief scientist Adam Pascale in a late-night live Tweet.
https://www.smh.com.au/national/victoria/melbourne-rattled-by-pre-midnight-earthquake-20230528-p5dby2.html
Bugger. 🙁
https://www.smh.com.au/world/middle-east/turkey-s-erdogan-claims-victory-in-presidential-election-20230529-p5dbyb.html
I guess that’s the result you expect when you collude with Elon Musk to use Twitter as a censorship tool to disable your opponent from being able to communicate with the electorate.
Following is a link to an essay written by Major General Mike Smith (rtd). Must admit it was nice to read a thoughtful piece on Australian defence policy that concurs with with my opinions. Others may not agree.
https://johnmenadue.com/how-should-australia-defend-itself-in-the-21st-century-silencing-the-drums-and-dogs-of-war/
Sen. Lindsey Graham (R-SC) on Sunday lashed out at Speaker Kevin McCarthy’s (R-CA) deal to raise the debt ceiling because it effectively cuts military spending.
During an interview on Fox News Sunday, Graham told host Shannon Bream that he was unhappy with parts of the debt ceiling bill. “You know, number one, I respect Kevin McCarthy,” Graham said. “I want to raise the debt ceiling; it’d be irresponsible not to do it.”
“And I know you can’t get the perfect, but what I will not do is adopt the Biden defense budget and call it a success,” he continued. “Kevin said that the defense is fully funded. If we adopt the Biden defense budget, it increases defense spending below inflation. 3.2% increase in defense is below inflation.”
Graham accused supporters of the bill of “doing a great disservice to the party of Ronald Reagan.”
Imagine voting for erdoClown, the crypto-islamist who gave Türkiye 44 percent inflation, only a bunch of clowns themselves 😡
RP says:
Monday, May 29, 2023 at 5:43 am
Following is a link to an essay written by Major General Mike Smith (rtd). Must admit it was nice to read a thoughtful piece on Australian defence policy that concurs with with my opinions. Others may not agree.
https://johnmenadue.com/how-should-australia-defend-itself-in-the-21st-century-silencing-the-drums-and-dogs-of-war/
—————————————————————-
An interesting article with far too many elements to discuss at length in this forum. I would say though that Labor were poorly served being handed a fait accompli following almost a decade of delay. This delay required immediate attention.
The concept that the DSR would’ve been better had it undergone significant public discussion and debate sounds good but might’ve been impractical resulting in even further delays by years. I say this in the context of what we’ve observed so far in The Voice debate. Like many things national security is highly polarising and nuanced and as a result, rarely undertaken publicly anywhere in the world of consequence.
This doesn’t mean it shouldn’t happen in such a manner but that the context in terms of time and understanding is important. This government was offered the worst of these elements.
Good morning Dawn Patrollers. Another sparse collection.
Mark Kenny begins this contribution with, “Have no illusions, at the heart of the campaign to incite fear against the Voice is fear itself. The tell-tale signs are manifest. Shrill claims. Disproportionate anger. Absurd equivalences. And self-interest. Exhibit A is Australia’s least authoritative prime minister. Having debauched Westminster conventions, Scott “multiple ministries” Morrison piped up on Wednesday to defend sacred governing norms. True story!” And then he gets stuck into Dutton.
https://www.canberratimes.com.au/story/8211750/it-is-sameness-that-we-should-fear/?cs=14258
Moderate Liberal MP Bridget Archer has called for a drastic reconsideration of the Coalition with the Nationals if the party is to win back a slew of city-based seats and save the careers of half a dozen MPs she believes are the party’s future. Paul Sakkal and James Massola tell us that the Tasmanian MP has said the decades-long Coalition agreement had merits when the parties were in government, but argued it was time to redraw the relationship in opposition.
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/we-re-not-the-lnp-liberals-call-for-coalition-rethink-to-save-city-seats-20230527-p5dbs0.html
The battle to release the names of PwC staff implicated in the tax scandal is set to intensify this week as the global consulting giant prepares to make its first significant announcement since effectively losing any further business with the Commonwealth. According to Colin Kruger, PwC insiders who are not authorised to speak on the matter have confirmed that acting chief executive Kristin Stubbins will make an announcement this week.
https://www.smh.com.au/business/the-economy/pwc-boss-to-take-action-as-battle-to-release-names-heats-up-20230526-p5dbn3.html
And the AFR says PwC is now unlikely to win the external audit tender for Lendlease despite earlier being a favourite for the role, in one of the first signs the consulting giant’s ongoing tax leaks scandal is beginning to affect the firm’s ability to win work from commercial clients.
https://www.afr.com/companies/professional-services/lendlease-hits-pause-on-pwc-audit-deal-20230528-p5dbuz
John Kehoe writes that Australia could have built an extra 1.3 million homes over the past 20 years, but costly zoning, planning and building red tape imposed by local councils is chiefly to blame for a huge housing undersupply, according to analysis by former Reserve Bank of Australia economist Tony Richards.
https://www.afr.com/property/residential/1-3-million-missing-homes-blamed-on-councils-and-nimbys-20230515-p5d8d3
Nursing home providers have backed a new Albanese government consultation paper that floats making elderly Australians pay more from their own pocket for aged care as part of efforts to relieve pressure on taxpayers. The draft National Care and Support Economy Strategy also warns that higher wages for carers working in the aged, disability, veterans and early childhood sectors can only be achieved through productivity gains to avoid driving up costs of services further.
https://www.afr.com/politics/federal/albanese-government-floats-making-people-pay-more-for-care-20230528-p5dbvc
Australia’s largest miner, BHP, is about to test run heavy-haul trucks with electric motors charged by renewable power in a bid to slash fossil fuel use that accounts for 40 per cent of its carbon emissions. These huge ore trucks run 24 hours a day, burn vast reservoirs of diesel and are ubiquitous across Australia’s open-pit mines.
https://www.smh.com.au/business/companies/monster-movers-bhp-tests-electric-trucks-the-size-of-two-storey-house-20230526-p5dbjb.html
The SMH editorial says that the Victorian government’s announcement last week that it will end native forest logging in the state next year has accelerated debate about the future of the industry elsewhere, particularly in NSW, and given rise to the prospect of greater federal government engagement on a nationally significant issue.
https://www.smh.com.au/national/native-forest-logging-back-in-the-spotlight-in-nsw-after-changes-in-victoria-20230528-p5dbus.html
Woohoo! Two of the biggest tax cheats, ExxonMobil and Chevron (auditors for both are PwC) have finally begun to pay a mite of income tax in Australia but they also ripped out more than $13bn in dividends and returns of capital last year. Michael West reports their latest financials.
https://michaelwest.com.au/exxon-confirms-tax-office-in-pursuit-as-it-and-chevron-rip-13bn-dividends-out-of-australia/
James Massola writes that Brittany Higgins notified one of the ABC’s most respected journalists that she planned to make a formal complaint against the federal police, according to leaked WhatsApp messages.
https://www.theage.com.au/national/leaked-texts-suggest-brittany-higgins-not-top-prosecutor-tipped-off-media-about-complaint-20230528-p5dbwu.html
The debt ceiling deal isn’t perfect but it’s the only one – and it must pass, urges Robert Reich.
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2023/may/28/debt-ceiling-deal-house-biden-mccarthy
Twitter’s reinvention of its verification program, combined with a new generation of synthetic media, could create a perfect storm for misinformation, warns Tim Biggs.
https://www.smh.com.au/technology/ai-fakes-and-twitter-s-lack-of-control-are-a-dangerous-combination-20230526-p5dbm5.html
Cartoon Corner
David Rowe
Megan Herbert
Leak
From the US
Yes, the failure of the referendum won’t hurt Albo one bit, he’ll just shrug his shoulders and move on. But it will put the issue of reconciliation off for an ENTIRE generation (25 years) at least, Treaty* another 50 years, and clowns like integrity and p1 will be partly responsible for sowing doubt 😡
* 20 years off even if the referendum is passed.
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/albanese-said-we-can-and-can-t-stand-in-someone-else-s-shoes-which-is-it-20230524-p5dauf.html
Bwahahaha, you’re kidding me, this is UTTER tosh! Treaty and truth-telling are DEAD AND BURIED for a generation if this referendum fails!
Thanks BK
“ Mark Kenny begins this contribution with, “Have no illusions, at the heart of the campaign to incite fear against the Voice is fear itself. The tell-tale signs are manifest. Shrill claims. Disproportionate anger. Absurd equivalences. And self-interest. ”
——————————————
I wonder whether these false claims and their perpetrators will ever truly be called out for what they are, lies and liars? Why is it that the msm and No Vote supporters feels so comfortable perpetuating such falsehoods?
A win by the Yes vote for the morally correct reasons would also be a clear victory for decency over our increasingly corrupted and duplicitous media.
Lars Von Trier, nath, Rex Douglas and Taylormade are fully aware , Federal Labor will be the government for the long haul (4 terms or more)
#weatheronPB
Pale crumbs in the sky,
a thin scattering up high,
herded out of view.
It’s “dangerous” for the Voice to Parliament debate to degenerate into a more racialised discussion, Race Discrimination Commissioner Chin Tan warns. He told The Age it empowers racists and risks abuse and vilification of First Nations folks. The Voice “in itself is not racist and it does not racialise Australia”, he emphasised, an apparent reference to Opposition Leader Peter Dutton’s comment that it would “re-racialise” Australia. Meanwhile, cashed-up international investors will be turned off Australia if the Voice fails, Wesfarmers boss Michael Chaney says. He told The Australian ($) Australia won’t look like a “fair place” and added that other CEOs agreed (he’s former chairman of NAB and Woodside Energy). It comes as independent Senator Lidia Thorpe is pondering whether to abstain from the vote, the ABC reports, saying she can’t support “something that gives us no power” but nor can she support the opposing side which looks “more like a white supremacy campaign”.
Neither the right flank of the Republican party nor some Democrats are happy with the deal that President Biden and Speaker Kevin McCarthy (R-Calif.) struck to raise the nation’s debt limit alongside some policy reforms and spending clawbacks.
In one of the most colorful criticisms of the agreement, Rep. Chip Roy (R-Texas) characterized it as a “turd-sandwich” on Sunday morning, after vowing in another tweet that he would try to stop the expected bill from making it out of the lower chamber.
Rep. Pramila Jayapal (D-Wash.), chairwoman of the House Progressive Caucus, signaled on CNN’s “State of the Union” that the White House is likely to face some trouble drawing support from her caucus, which includes over 100 members in a narrowly-divided chamber.
Sen. Lindsey Graham (R-S.C.) on Sunday signaled he could oppose the debt ceiling agreement in principle that President Biden and Speaker Kevin McCarthy (R-Calif.) say they’ve reached over concerns about defense spending.
“I understand compromise but I don’t understand putting our defense capabilities at serious risk in the name of compromise,” Graham said in a Tweet thread. “The 2011 budget deal was a disaster for our nation’s defense. I have fears this proposal is shaping up to be even worse. Stay tuned.”
The senator raised concerns about how the proposal could impact the Navy and aid to Ukraine. “From a defense perspective, we have compromised our national security for marginal changes on the non-defense side. I will oppose if my concerns prove to be borne out,” he said. Graham had said earlier on “Fox News Sunday” that adopting “the Biden defense budget” would be a “joke.”
In Darwin where I am
The Voice appears to not reach
Still I trust the Uluru Statement
That in our hearts
We know it to be Truth
most of the republicans attacking the deal are trump suporters graham seems to want to aline with trump
Neither the right flank of the Republican party nor some Democrats are happy with the deal
Which means it’s the perfect compromise and they should get on with passing it…
davo @ #774 Monday, May 29th, 2023 – 6:38 am
They’re more worthy of contempt than straight out No campaigners. At least those people are honest.
Sen. Lindsey Graham (R-S.C.) on Sunday signaled he could oppose the debt ceiling agreement in principle that President Biden and Speaker Kevin McCarthy (R-Calif.) say they’ve reached over concerns about defense spending.
“I understand compromise but I don’t understand putting our defense capabilities at serious risk in the name of compromise,” Graham said in a Tweet thread. “The 2011 budget deal was a disaster for our nation’s defense. I have fears this proposal is shaping up to be even worse. Stay tuned.”
1. He wants the US to Default then?
2. The Military Budget was the ONLY thing INCREASED in the deal!!!
I knew it. And now there is proof:
Devoted Albanista
@Trish_Corry
·
15h
Well we’ll well. As expected all these “I have been a
@AustralianLabor
voter for 30 years and now I’m voting Green” are just orchestrated propaganda by the
@Greens
. Source: FB comment of a Greens WhatsApp message. #Auspol
”
Holdenhillbillysays:
Monday, May 29, 2023 at 6:12 am
Sen. Lindsey Graham (R-SC) on Sunday lashed out at Speaker Kevin McCarthy’s (R-CA) deal to raise the debt ceiling because it effectively cuts military spending.
During an interview on Fox News Sunday, Graham told host Shannon Bream that he was unhappy with parts of the debt ceiling bill. “You know, number one, I respect Kevin McCarthy,” Graham said. “I want to raise the debt ceiling; it’d be irresponsible not to do it.”
“And I know you can’t get the perfect, but what I will not do is adopt the Biden defense budget and call it a success,” he continued. “Kevin said that the defense is fully funded. If we adopt the Biden defense budget, it increases defense spending below inflation. 3.2% increase in defense is below inflation.”
Graham accused supporters of the bill of “doing a great disservice to the party of Ronald Reagan.”
”
MAGAs in meltdown.
Thanks BK
Morning all. Thanks for the roundup BK. The AFR article I disagree with strongly:
“ John Kehoe writes that Australia could have built an extra 1.3 million homes over the past 20 years, but costly zoning, planning and building red tape imposed by local councils is chiefly to blame for a huge housing undersupply, according to analysis by former Reserve Bank of Australia economist Tony Richards.”
https://www.afr.com/property/residential/1-3-million-missing-homes-blamed-on-councils-and-nimbys-20230515-p5d8d3
Simply not true. Housing prices are determined by supply and demand, driven mainly by tax rules and monetary policy. There is no evidence that “cutting red tape” as happened with building regulations and inspections for apartments, lowers prices or increases supply. That is why we have so many poorly built apartments. If we gut planning regulations developers will simply pocket the savings and local councils will end up with huge financial liabilities.
How does this “cut red tape” lie survive no matter how many times it is proven false?
”
Mark Kenny begins this contribution with, “Have no illusions, at the heart of the campaign to incite fear against the Voice is fear itself. The tell-tale signs are manifest. Shrill claims. Disproportionate anger. Absurd equivalences. And self-interest. Exhibit A is Australia’s least authoritative prime minister. Having debauched Westminster conventions, Scott “multiple ministries” Morrison piped up on Wednesday to defend sacred governing norms. True story!” And then he gets stuck into Dutton.
https://www.canberratimes.com.au/story/8211750/it-is-sameness-that-we-should-fear/?cs=14258
”
Scott “multiple ministries” Morrison maybe the least authoritative PM, who debauched Westminster conversations. But he was the most authoritarian of Australian PMs.
Update: While the terms “authoritative” and “authoritarian” leadership sound similar—and are often used interchangeably—they are very different. Authoritative leaders guide their team by example and inspire progression toward a common goal, whereas authoritarian leaders rely on commands and demand compliance without question.
On the good news side, Defence has signed a cooperative agreement between BAE, Lockheed Martin and SAAB to ensure that systems integration work on warships (Hunter and Hobarts) is done in Australia.
https://www.navalnews.com/naval-news/2023/05/combat-systems-agreement-boosts-australia-shipbuilding-capability/
Good. This work has been done well here in the past, as was shown on the Collins Class.
Wazza Mundine thinks Dutters is right on the money with his Voice speech in Parliament last week.
”
Australia’s largest miner, BHP, is about to test run heavy-haul trucks with electric motors charged by renewable power in a bid to slash fossil fuel use that accounts for 40 per cent of its carbon emissions. These huge ore trucks run 24 hours a day, burn vast reservoirs of diesel and are ubiquitous across Australia’s open-pit mines.
https://www.smh.com.au/business/companies/monster-movers-bhp-tests-electric-trucks-the-size-of-two-storey-house-20230526-p5dbjb.html
”
So LNP claim that EVs will take away Australian Utes and Weekends is pure rubbish and a lie.
If one can run huge EV trucks, one can easily run Utes.
It appears anything that comes out of LNP politicians mouth is an exaggeration or a lie o fear mongering.
mundo @ #782 Monday, May 29th, 2023 – 8:19 am
And I bet you think that all is lost as a result of the campaign by those two. 😐
”
Scottsays:
Monday, May 29, 2023 at 7:06 am
Lars Von Trier, nath, Rex Douglas and Taylormade are fully aware , Federal Labor will be the government for the long haul (4 terms or more)
”
Scott
Not so fast with those kind of claims eventhough I hope so.
There are so many variables in play we don’t know what will happen next year let alone next term.
A lot of people claimed that Rudd will be PM for atleast 2 terms and we know what happened.
Ven @ #783 Monday, May 29th, 2023 – 8:32 am
It’s FUD, Ven. Fear, Uncertainty or Denial.
Honestly, to tell you the truth, one of the biggest hopes I have for the world to work together to prevent Global Heating leading to catastrophic Climate Change is so that the great glaciers of the world that feed countries such as your homeland, don’t melt and destroy life as those people know it.
So, another reason that it’s great that the Coalition aren’t in power federally anymore because Morrison and Dutton would not be encouraging business to do any of that.
davo @ #774 Monday, May 29th, 2023 – 6:38 am
Why do you people drag me into your nonsense? I have said several times I’m voting ‘Yes’. Yes for Voice, Yes for Treaty and Yes for Truth.
Your problem is that you won’t take ‘Yes’ for an answer on the other key components of the Uluru Statement. You only want the Voice.
Twenty years you say? Fifty years? Another lost generation? What a giveaway that is. People like you and C@t seem to care about the Voice mainly because it is politically opportune to do so, and you don’t seem worried that another generation may be lost in the pursuit of it, as long as Labor gets a much-needed win out of it.
Final episode of succession today. *sobs*