Tuesday update
Roger Cook, who has served as Labor’s deputy leader ever since he first entered parliament in 2008, and as Deputy Premier since the government came to power in 2017, has emerged from a day of factional manoeuvring as the winner by acclamation of the party room. This was despite the parliamentary membership of the sub-faction associated with the United Workers Union, which dominates the Left and claims Cook among its number, voting 17 to 11 yesterday to favour the alternative claim of Health Minister Amber-Jade Sanderson. However, Cook was then able to gain the support of the other major Left union, the Australian Manufacturing Workers Union, after entering a unity ticket with Rita Saffioti, who abandoned her own pitch for the leadership in a deal that will secure her the deputy leadership and, The West Australian reports, the Treasury portfolio. The Right faction will reportedly complete the formality of backing Cook at a meeting tomorrow. A contested race would have required a ballot of the membership, which the party hierarchy was keen to avoid as it would have taken four weeks to conduct.
Original post
Mark McGowan has announced his unexpected departure from politics, having been Premier of Western Australia since 2017 and led Labor to what was by some distance the most sweeping election victory ever recorded in Australia in 2021, professing himself “exhausted”. As well as a initiating a by-election in his seat of Rockingham, which should be purely a formality for Labor, it also leaves open the question of the next Premier – The West Australian reports this “will either be Deputy Premier Roger Cook or Health Minister Amber-Jade Sanderson”.
UPDATE: The West Australian has a piece on potential successors that further includes Transport and Planning Minister Rita Saffioti, who I would have assumed to be a contender.
Mark McGowan standing down as WA premier in shock announcement, citing exhaustion
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2023-05-29/wa-premier-mark-mcgowan-resigns-from-politics/102406610
‘I’m tired, extremely tired’: WA Premier Mark McGowan quits politics
https://www.watoday.com.au/national/western-australia/i-m-tired-extremely-tired-wa-premier-mark-mcgowan-steps-down-20230529-p5dc68.html
Statement from Premier McGowan here
https://www.facebook.com/MarkMcGowanMP/posts/pfbid032CWJZFHXBMyJRhX4GrBdZ1Q5a3DEqh6B6pNiUxjYDrdPerHgRqrJgbR8AECiT1wNl
Statement from PM Albanese here
https://twitter.com/political_alert/status/1663050268991422465
https://twitter.com/AntonyGreenElec/status/1663043600366841856
“Just in case anyone is wondering, Mark McGowan represents Rockingham, WA Labor’s safest seat with a margin of 37.7%. Mark McGowan’s first preference vote was 82.6%, the Liberals second on 9.8%. Labor likely to hold if there is a by-election.”
Whilst there is obvious speculation on who will succeed McGowan as Premier, you would think his seat will also be sought after. It is one of the safest Labor seats in the country.
You would think any local figure with McGowan’s endorsement has a guaranteed entry into parliament.
Alternatively a great place for a bright new Labor figure to start a political career.
Can’t believe they’re actually considering Amber-Jade Sanderson. She’s the health minister who let Covid in, and has residual unpopularity just from that one decision, but that she also hasn’t been great on hospital ramping, the location of the new maternity hospital, and is trying to force a new ehealth system on us, no mention of patient consent, she’s not a great choice – and it also wouldn’t surprise me if she lost whatever lower house seat they tried to parachute her into, think Kristina Keneally in Fowler. All I’ve heard today is a negative response to any suggestion of her name.
Roger Cook – also suffers for the move towards weakening the borders and letting the virus in, seems tired and I’m just not sure about him? Might be ok.
Rita Saffioti – good performer and energetic, but maybe too close to developers? Likeable though.
Michelle Roberts – highly experienced, competent and clean, I don’t like that her name isn’t really being thrown in the mix of possible contenders. She’s one of their most talented performers, and has held enough hard-man jobs like police minister to be taken seriously. Perfectly likeable enough too.
Sue Ellery – not competent, and that tenancy “reform” she announced a few days ago is going down like a lead balloon with renters. Business as usual is not reform. That goes for John Carey as well. That tenancy law announcement let down the hopes of some of the most vulnerable people in society, it’s not being well received. Also not competent in education either.
Bill Johnston – low profile, not sure of competence?
Paul Papalia – don’t know enough about him, low profile.
It’s a shame Alannah MacTiernan has already left parliament – and even more of a shame that she was wasted when she went federal. This is showing up their lack of talent though, and highlighting some of the deadwood who maybe need to be cleared out. Eg John Quigley holds the Attorney General portfolio, but isn’t even considered as an option. Those text messages did him damage. Simone McGurk holds a major portfolio as well, plus was given the opportunity to represent a safe seat like Fremantle, yet is a mediocre performer. Maybe not deadwood exactly, but more of a supporting role, not leadership material.
My pick is Cook with Saffioti as deputy, just please, for the love of god, not Sanderson. It would only be for the incompetence of the Liberals that Labor would be re-elected under her.
Didn’t see it coming, but it would be understandable. McGowan was leader for 3 elections, including the 2013 one where Labor was in the doldrums everywhere.
I can see how someone would reach their limit after all that time and leave at a time of their own choosing when they’re on top. Also I would imagine that at least one his children would be a young adult now, or nearly there, and he might be wanting to make himself available as a grandparent, although that would be a personal matter.
This gives the new leader almost 2 years to build up their brand for the March 2025 election.
”
Catherinesays:
Monday, May 29, 2023 at 5:02 pm
Can’t believe they’re actually considering Amber-Jade Sanderson.
……
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It’s a shame Alannah MacTiernan has already left parliament – and even more of a shame that she was wasted when she went federal. This is showing up their lack of talent though, and highlighting some of the deadwood who maybe need to be cleared out.
……
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”
Ahh Alannah MacTiernan !
I couldn’t recollect her name. She impressed me a lot when she was in parliament. Can she get into parliament via McGowan seat and become Premier? She would be a much better choice than any of the other people mentioned.
MacTiernan has already quit politics; Quigley and Roberts are not contenders; Johnston is by all accounts preparing to retire at the next election, and would I assume be aware of his limitations electorally speaking. I’m sure The West’s journalists were well briefed when they boiled it down to Cook, Sanderson and Saffioti, but my pick would be Papalia — military background, looks the part, affable, capable and hard-working. Presumably his problem is factional non-alignment and lack of any union power base.
Lets not be ageist and sexist here, but as much as we love Allanah McTiernan, she’s 70! And she has also had enough and left the Parliament.
Michelle Roberts is 63. Catherine might find her likeable but a former colleague who worked for her briefly did not. She did not get faction support for a cabinet post after the last election and had to settle for Speaker. Probably should be looking to retirement rather than promotion.
Sue Ellery is 61 and in the Upper House and has said she will not be running in 2025. The same former colleague who worked for her for longer says she is the most useless minister he encountered in a decade or so of working in government.
I stand by my assessment of Roger Cook. Ideal deputy cos he’s never going to get the top job and doesn’t spend half his life undermining the leader.
Sanderson also has been damaged by Health Portfolio issues.
Safiotti out there in public eye with Metronet. Critics think she’s too quick to approve property developments but some people think there shouldn’t be any development anyway.
Papalia might be a dark horse. Low profile for a Police Minister in a state where if you believe the local comic newspaper we are in danger of being taken over any minute by bikie gangs.
I’m leaning towards Safiotti.
I think Alannah MacTiernan would be even more burnt out with politics than Mark McGowan.
To start with, she started being in elected politics since 1988 (on the Perth city council), then entering the WA Legislative council at the 1993 election. She then moved to the Lower House in 1996 and stayed there for 14 years, contesting Canning at the 2010 election and losing to the incumbent Liberal Don Randall.
She then returned to local politics in being Mayor for the City of Vincent until the 2013 election where she succeeded Stephen Smith as the Federal member for Perth and evidently had a gutful in being in opposition in that time, returning to state politics in 2017 via the Upper House.
She also had to deal with breast cancer in 2019, so that would take a lot of stamina out of anyone. I don’t think she’d want to return to politics after dealing with all that, especially in that she’s now 70.
But, you never know, being offered to succeed McGowan in the Rockingham by-election to become Premier might be tempting for anyone, especially for someone with her experience at all 3 levels of Australian politics. It’d also be unique, the only other time I know of that a leader of a major party was selected from outside of parliament was Campbell Newman for the Queensland LNP. And that was a party in opposition, not government.
If they go as far as making MacTiernan leader of WA Labor, they would also have to have an interim Parliamentary leader until she can claim a seat (the Queensland LNP did this by having Jeff Seeney be leader until Newman could enter parliament via Ashgrove. Until then he had to sit in the public gallery and instruct his party from there). This might be a little too extreme of an option politically speaking, but when you have a majority of 53 of 59 seats, that’s also an unusual situation. I’m not sure if she’d be able to serve as Premier until she has a seat in parliament again in that scenario.
To clarify, MacTiernan becoming leader is something I think would be nearly impossible, I’m mostly just riffing out what I think would be the specifics if that were to happen.
My impression is that Roger did not excel as health minister. Benign incompetence sums it up.
Linda Reynolds shitting on the ultra popular McGowan on the occasion of his retirement isn’t going to win the Liberals more friends in the West.
Arky: “Linda Reynolds”
She needs to be managed out.
What about Stephen Smith, who wanted to challenge McGowan when he was LOTO and become next Premier in 2017? 🙂
This is chance for that. Atleast there is no one leading the party now. 🙂
Another point in Papalia’s favour being that he led the charge against that development on behalf of McGowan, at a time when McGowan’s electoral record consisted of the drubbing Labor copped under his leadership in 2013.
The only thing I can say about leadership candidates is that Steve Bracks was Steve Who? when he replaced Brumby and look how that went, and Dan Andrews was similarly Dan Who? to most of Victoria when he became leader. Not long after he became leader I was told by no less than Martin Foley (to shamelessly name drop) that Dan was going to be a great leader, really knew what he was doing, we’d all see – and of course we have done. He also told me how tall Dan is in person, that’s the only other thing I remember.
I don’t think capacity to be a great leader is immediately obvious from the outside in state politics at least, is what I’m saying.
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Kirsdarkesays:
Monday, May 29, 2023 at 6:14 pm
I think Alannah MacTiernan would be even more burnt out with politics than Mark McGowan.
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If they go as far as making MacTiernan leader of WA Labor, they would also have to have an interim Parliamentary leader until she can claim a seat
”
I don’t think that is a necessity. Am I correct in saying that one can become Premier and then contest a seat within 6 months and win it to remain Premier?
Arky: “Who? ”
It is a common tactic of conservative commentators in order to instill doubt in a ALP candidates. They even did it with Albanese, and he’s been around in senior ministerial roles, since forever. They never apply the same logic to conservative candidates.
Ven
Stephen Smith is now High Commissioner in London. Probably a better gig than being Premier of WA.
Pi – both Bracks and Andrews were all but unknown to ME let alone to your average unengaged voter, they really did not have big public profiles before leadership. Albo is a completely different kettle of fish
@Ven
I’m honestly not sure. Such a scenario hasn’t happened in Australian politics before. The most unusual thing that happened after Federation was Hal Colebatch becoming Premier of WA in 1919, even though he was in the Upper House, but even then, he resigned after only a month, partly because of his health, but mostly because he couldn’t secure a lower house seat, unlike John Gorton, who was a Senator when he became Prime Minister in 1967 after Harold Holt, but sorted that out by becoming the new lower house Member for Higgins.
Either way, it’d be just weird that WA Labor would select a leader from outside parliament altogether when they have the biggest majority in either house that they’ve ever had.
It’s apparently the case that a person can be a minister for three months without holding a seat in parliament (although I can’t find reference to the fact in the Constitution Act), but this is purely academic because the scenario under discussion here is not realistic.
The assassin in the cardigan, Barrie Unsworth became premier of NSW when he was in the LC. In 1986
He eventually won a by-election for the very safe seat of Rockdale by 54 votes after suffering a 15% swing
@OC
Ah, right, I forgot about Unsworth’s case in NSW.
It does make me curious though about what would happen if a governing party of NSW, Victoria, SA, WA, Tasmania or even the Federal party elected an MLC/Senator as its leader and they became Premier/Prime Minister and they decided “No, bugger it, I’m staying right where I am.” and unlike Colebatch, refuse to resign the position and stay in the upper house.
It’d certainly shake up the “Westminster Tradition”, but I don’t know if there’s any legal grounds to state that “The Prime Minister/Premier must hold a seat in the Lower House.”
WA has a weird example in Colin Barnett, who if I remember correctly announced while in opposition that he would not contest coming election but was somehow pursuaded to be LOTO and went to win the election and remain Premier for 2 terms.
He was dubbed The accidental Premier
Kirksdale
Just had a quick look at the NSW constitution- nothing in that to say that the Governor’s advisers must be in parliament but a lot about parliamentary secretaries (a particular concern of Aaron Newton)
You may remember that della Bosca, who was unelectable in a single member seat, put himself forward as Iemma’s replacement but sitting in the LC. Fun days.
WB:
Monday, May 29, 2023 at 6:59 pm
[‘It’s apparently the case that a person can be a minister for three months without holding a seat in parliament (although I can’t find reference to the fact in the Constitution Act), but this is purely academic because the scenario under discussion here is not realistic.’]
I think the section you’re looking for is 64, the third para of which reads:
‘After the first general election no Minister of State shall hold office for a longer period than three months unless he is or becomes a senator or a member of the House of Representatives.’
Prime Minister not mentioned in The Australian Constitution .
so I guess it doesn’t matter where he sits.
https://peo.gov.au/understand-our-parliament/your-questions-on-notice/questions/why-is-it-that-the-prime-minister-and-cabinet-are-not-mentioned-in-the-australian-constitution/
@Ven
That would be because at the time, Barnett’s successor of the WA Liberals, Troy Buswell turned out to be an unelectable buffoon and there was nobody else available, so he was convinced to return to the leadership and change his decision to retire.
If I remember right, WA Labor was a huge mess at the 2008 election and he ended up winning a minority government as a result. I presume that Barnett ended up being comfortable as Premier enough to remain in the position.
WA Labor quite literally have more lower house MPs right now than any previous government in the state has ever had. I can barely even fathom a situation where they would need to look for a leader outside of the Legislative Assembly.
Any Labor federal seats in wa coming up ?
Antony Green’s view of della Bosca being premier in the LC
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2009-07-06/john-della-bosca-for-nsw-premier/9389212
He could serve as Premier while in the upper house, but it would be an act of political cowardice to do so.
Mavis
You are quoting the Federal Constitution- not necessarily the case in the states
My reference was to the Western Australia Constitution Act, not the Constitution of Australia.
WB: Oh, I see you’re referring to the WA Consitution, not the Cth…
@OC
Thanks for linking that. I didn’t know that Della-Bosca was a serious contender for being an MLC Premier. If that happened, then NSW 2011 would have probably resembled Queensland 2012 and reduced Labor to single digits.
To the topic of who will succeed McGowan, another factor will be the decisions of both old and new members. Since the day before the 2017 election, WA Parliamentary Labor has an additional 33 lower house MP’s and 11 upper house MP’s. Such a big wave of new members might make an interesting leadership contest.
Oh yeah. In a contested WA Labor Leadership election, is it decided by Parliamentary members only? Or is grassroot Labor membership involved?
Good question. My notes tell me that the party in WA adopted a federal-style leadership election model in 2014.
Oakeshott Country:
Monday, May 29, 2023 at 7:27 pm
[‘Mavis
You are quoting the Federal Constitution- not necessarily the case in the states’]
Thanks – I missed the context though at least it’s confirmed in the Australian Constitution but I’m unaware of any examples thereof. When Gorton was elected leader, he was still in the Senate but that is of course a different kettle of fish.
michele roberts has been in parliament since 1996 and is in the right faction she attacked carpinter very strongly a few years a go that might not have helped wa had to open its borders at some point cook was dropped from health in faver of sanderson robberts will probaly retire at next election along with her allies doust and johnston and rival kelley
could mcgowan follow the path of former premiers in to federal parliament he is very wa focusd not sure if he would be pmbut his mentore was beazley and he did attack dutton which could suggest federal ambitions
@WB
I see, that could complicate things in the meantime.
If it’s a contested leadership vote, then either McGowan would have to delay his resignation, or Roger Cook would have to take over as Interim Premier until the grassroot vote is decided, would that be right?
if johnston goes his wife kate doust who mcgowan sacked as upper house president in faver of the lefts clohusey aparently johnston and doust are not well liked part of the shoppies
Presumably the former, Kirsdarke. The situation has never arisen while Labor have been in government, as winners have invariably emerged by acclamation — which may yet happen here.
It is likely that Mark McG would think about going before the next election but most of WA would be surprised by the timing.
I don’t think Labor would be well served by Roger Cook becoming leader as while he might be a “safe” pair of hands, inspiring is a word which does not fit in his profile.
Perhaps one of the more progressive women (and NOT Alannah McT as she has given her all for WA over the years) might be the go, with Cook as Deputy.
In all the good things that McGowan has done, it was his government’s breaking of the rank jerrymander in rural seats which he saw off and which prevented Labor prior to this, ever getting control of the Legislative Council.
While the rustics howled about the death of democracy in the bush when the change legislation went through, we in Perth were fed up with our vote being equated to one vote for us, but in the country, three votes made up of one for a human and one each for two sheep…
The Nationals with sod all of the total vote dominated in the Council for over 100 years and the Liberals – despite they being played by the Nationals – never had the guts to take the Nationals on over this gross unfairness…
Well done Mark and enjoy your new life…….
Just saw a clip from SkyNews where their experts are trying to imply there is a scandal brewing. (Bugger off you maggots – your beloved LNP holds only a handful of seats, you don’t have a dog in the fight.)
They have their collective hands on it!
McGowan wants a break. He deserves it. His family deserve to have him back for a while.
Don’t worry about leadership speculation. They will work it out in a jiffy. (I hear Zak Kirkup is available!)
Nine newspapers suggest it won’t go to a vote and backgrounds the main contenders: Cook, Safiotti and maybe Sanderson.
https://www.watoday.com.au/national/western-australia/cook-steps-up-to-take-the-reins-saffioti-considering-after-mcgowan-s-shock-exit-20230529-p5dc8q.html
Veteran Perth reporter Gary Adshead probably has forgotten more than the next generation at Stokes paper will ever know.
His take on the resignation is interesting, not least because he says a Lib source told him their polling predicted a one seat gain in 2025. One seat.
https://www.watoday.com.au/national/western-australia/mark-mcgowan-is-only-one-man-but-that-one-man-was-also-the-government-20230529-p5dc9q.html
Regarding the ‘scandal’ in McGowan’s going, it would be hard to find what that might be…Like Andrews, McGowan has been under intense scrutiny by both the Stokes media and those in the Murdoch camp. If there had been some kind of ‘scandal’ it would have been out in the open long ago….However, when the Murdoch lot are down on their uppers any kind of muck will pass a commentary..
In relation to McGowan, going ‘national’ I doubt this be on the cards. Having said how tired he is – and I believe him – why would you be made enough at 55 is he, and traipse back and forth to Canberra? This very challenge has cost plenty of WA politicians their marriages and peace of mind from the likes of Kim Beazley to our the late and unlamented “man fit/destined to become PM” Mr Porter….
Does anyone have an idea of possible preselection contenders for Rockingham?
Tricot
No matter what we think of McGowans abilities I’d be staggered if he went federal.
The federal caucus is full of ambitious factionalised MPs and senators and a rockstar blow in from WA would have no chance.
Even a warrior like Alannah said nobody in Canberra cared much what she thought.
I daresay he’ll find a boardroom somewhere and that will upset his critics and enemies even more.
Great
Maybe McGowan has quit politics because he is taking sympathy for the Eagles, and he thinks he might be the only person who can turn them around. Should be a walk in the park.