Tuesday update
Roger Cook, who has served as Labor’s deputy leader ever since he first entered parliament in 2008, and as Deputy Premier since the government came to power in 2017, has emerged from a day of factional manoeuvring as the winner by acclamation of the party room. This was despite the parliamentary membership of the sub-faction associated with the United Workers Union, which dominates the Left and claims Cook among its number, voting 17 to 11 yesterday to favour the alternative claim of Health Minister Amber-Jade Sanderson. However, Cook was then able to gain the support of the other major Left union, the Australian Manufacturing Workers Union, after entering a unity ticket with Rita Saffioti, who abandoned her own pitch for the leadership in a deal that will secure her the deputy leadership and, The West Australian reports, the Treasury portfolio. The Right faction will reportedly complete the formality of backing Cook at a meeting tomorrow. A contested race would have required a ballot of the membership, which the party hierarchy was keen to avoid as it would have taken four weeks to conduct.
Original post
Mark McGowan has announced his unexpected departure from politics, having been Premier of Western Australia since 2017 and led Labor to what was by some distance the most sweeping election victory ever recorded in Australia in 2021, professing himself “exhausted”. As well as a initiating a by-election in his seat of Rockingham, which should be purely a formality for Labor, it also leaves open the question of the next Premier – The West Australian reports this “will either be Deputy Premier Roger Cook or Health Minister Amber-Jade Sanderson”.
UPDATE: The West Australian has a piece on potential successors that further includes Transport and Planning Minister Rita Saffioti, who I would have assumed to be a contender.
No way McGowan is going federal, I believe him that he’s burnt out from the last few years and he needs a complete overhaul of his life.
I’m fairly ignorant about the possible successors to McGowan as Premier, and the factional makeup of the WA Labor Party, so I’ll look on with interest as that process plays itself out.
Working for the Eagles in Perth isn’t exactly a way to relax and avoid the scrutiny and abuse and confrontation and draining of politics and spend more time with family. Kennett went to Hawthorn because he was dumped from politics before he was ready to give up the fire and taste for political bloodsport.
Given his personal antecedents, McGowan’s rise to the top was pretty atypical: born & educated in NSW; receiving a BA/LLB from Qld Uni; serving as a RAN legal officer; with no apparent union affiliations; and, being politically unaligned. I think his popularity is principally based on two measures: his centrality on the political spectrum (not I think lost on Albanese) and his carriage of C.19. In any event, not bad for a former matelot. And as for his future, it would be most surprising if corporate offers weren’t manifold.
Thinking more about the circumstances of this particular leadership election, those contesting might be somewhat more bullish about their claims than they would be in the usual change of leadership and would want to bring it to a contest. Mainly because as mentioned before, WA Labor has 53 of 59 seats and would have to lose 24 of them to lose majority government, so whoever becomes leader after this will likely hold government until 2029 at the earliest, unless 2025 proves to be an electoral catastrophe for them on the scale of Queensland 2015.
Of course I can be proven wrong, but, with the position of dominance WA Labor has been put in at this moment, leadership candidates would likely be more likely to be in the mindset of “No, I’m going to challenge this right now and try and become in charge of such a dominant government” than be like “Oh well, it’s not my turn, maybe next time.”
Leroy @4.34pm
“Just in case anyone is wondering, Mark McGowan represents Rockingham, WA Labor’s safest seat with a margin of 37.7%. Mark McGowan’s first preference vote was 82.6%, the Liberals second on 9.8%. Labor likely to hold if there is a by-election.”
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98.6 asks :
Did you say ‘likely’ to hold, Leroy ?
Why would anyone bother to run against Labor ?
Waste of time and money for the libs or any independent.
Lars Von Trier says:
Monday, May 29, 2023 at 7:23 pm
Any Labor federal seats in wa coming up ?
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98.6 asks :
Lars, you wouldn’t ask that question if you watched the announcement.
Would imagine McGowan will end up in a lucrative role in the resources sector similar to Ben Wyatt ex-Treasurer heading off to the board of Woodside in 2021. Had Ben Wyatt remained in Parliament and was willing he’d probably have been the clear front-runner to take over as Premier. McGowan quitting will probably be a cause for hope and celebration for the WA Liberals it makes their job in rebuilding a fair bit easier.
I think the most likely person to take over as Premier is Roger Cook, he was moved out of the Health ministry in 2021 before the state opened up in a move which seemed to be a way of keeping his political skin clean from the expected fallout and he’s the Deputy Premier so feel like he’s the anointed one and therefore the favourite. He’s also from the Labor Left faction which is last I heard dominant in WA Labor so that can’t hurt.
Rita Saffioti would probably be a decent option as well. One of the government’s strongest points is its delivery of transport infrastructure and she’s been minister for Transport and Planning since 2017 so people would have a reasonably good impressions of her as well… she isn’t a great communicator unlike her Labor predecessor Alannah MacTiernan, however McGowan was never renowned for being that eloquent either.
Amber-Jade Sanderson is neither impressive or experienced and Paul Papalia has not built much of a profile as Police Minister so they’re both non-starters imo.
Will be interesting to see who is nominated to replace McGowan in Rockingham and the by-election will be a good litmus test to see where the government currently sits. It has always been a safe Labor seat, especially since the construction of the Mandurah line, but the 88-12 result last election will surely never be repeated. This is the sort of seat that in a 50-50 state wide election will usually vote ~62-38 Labor, with a new MP I reckon Labor would be content with a 70-30 split as it would portend to a further victory in 2025 even though on face value that would be a massive swing against it. The result will probably end up something close to 75-25 to Labor.
How interesting to see one of the 3 Labor COVID 19 State Premiers retire from the WA Premiership while presiding over the title of the most popular politician in the country.
Mark McGowan, Dan Andrews and Annastacia Palaszczuk were all supposed to lose their respective state election due to the way they went about ‘keeping their citizens safe’ during COVID.
It seems like the days of trying to beat previous records of incumbency by state premiers is just not worth it anymore.
Should we look out in the next 12 months for Dan to call it a day as he has shown us all that he can stay on till the next election and win it easily, if he wants to.
As for PAP, I saw her speak at the RSPCA Million Paws Walk in Brisbane on Sunday, and handed over $100,000 to the annual appeal as she walked her dog Winton around the University of Qld grounds.
With QLD’s state election due in 18 months time, I doubt she is going anywhere and she has recently repeated her long term commitment to the Premiership.
The Liberals would be utterly mad to run in the Rockingham byelection. It would like Labor running in a byelection in Vaucluse. Its also a poor area for the Greens, so they may skip it as well.
I would love it if someone spotted Ben Wyatt at a home open in Rockingham
rodger cook is not very inspiring never was mcgowan for nsw he was prity boreing how ever cook was deputy
Would wyatthave the numbers i dought this as he ran against Eric ripper and had little support until a year later Mcgowan chalinged both mps were unalind how ver wa labor factions are strange the conservative shooppies joining with the cfmeu mua
”
Tricotsays:
Monday, May 29, 2023 at 8:49 pm
In relation to McGowan, going ‘national’ I doubt this be on the cards. Having said how tired he is – and I believe him – why would you be made enough at 55 is he, and traipse back and forth to Canberra? This very challenge has cost plenty of WA politicians their marriages and peace of mind from the likes of Kim Beazley to our the late and unlamented “man fit/destined to become PM” Mr Porter….
”
After Bob Hawke became PM, albeit from Victoria, every WA Politician, who considers himself (no herself) a big player, wants to be Australia PM.
I know Curtin was greatest PM (atleast according to Hawke) , who was from WA.
I don’t know how any faction in WA Labor is alowed to call itself ‘left’, they are left in the same sense Thatcher and Reagan were left, significantly less left than first term Howard.
The SDA and CFMEU, or whatever they are called today, probably met and aligned in the deepest pit of hell, they are certainly both evil, although the CFMEU works for its members not directly against them, so less evil.
Rita came right out of Team Carpenter. The team that lost an unloseable election and gave WA 8 years of Colin Barnett. If Labor held its members and leaders responsible for the sh1t they do she wouldn’t have had a seat in Parliament after the first Barnett term, but no here is the architect and key beneficiary (she got herself a safe seat that should have gone to someone on Team Labor) of Team Carpenter a Minister, the minister for making 4 year projects take 8 or more. Now she blames covid and covid almost certainly made it worse but deliberately going slow enough to waste the whole first term wasn’t because of covid, it was deliberate to slow the projects down. I hope she has had public speaking lessons I saw her do a community forum on the trains and she was a terrible communicator.
Timing is good for Rita though there is construction up and down the new Ellenbrook line, yeah sure a competent Govt would have had trains running on it for at least a year, and the punters will see that, if she can get the gig. Roger is a bit of a nothing burger, whitetoast type, so exactly like McGowan.
They should bring Louise Pratt back from Canberra and make her Premier, that would be interesting.
“In relation to McGowan, going ‘national’ I doubt this be on the cards.”
Last Labor party function I went to was a business round table where I was on the business side, not attending as a former labor person the way Ben and Mark were worshipping a certain local billionaire made my skin crawl, I have no doubt Mark will rock up on the gravy train, and lets be honest Australian directors are so very very bad he’ll almost certainly be a positive addition to any board.
McGowan as the next Governor General?
“McGowan as the next Governor General?”
Doesn’t seem to be enough gravy on that train.
You think?
Fulvio
I think admiral/general/air chief Marshall is probably minimum qualification for ex military men to be GG.
McGowan was a mere lieutenant. Though he scrubbed up well in his ceremonial whites from one picture I have seen.
The West Australian gives many pages of what appears to be mostly favourable coverage to McGowan (that’s based on headlines, I’m not reading it all) .
He’s going to be a hard act to follow.
Linda Reynolds is copping a bit of stick in the Guardian for ungracious comments about McGowan’s departure. I wrote that she would be better off thinking about covering her backside at the Canberra rape enquiry and they deleted it.
Granny
The Guardian very alert to comments on matters relating to alleged criminal activity.
And given recent judgments in which publishers can be held liable for what posters say it’s understandable.
Ads promoting Reynolds have been bobbing up in my Facebook feed in last month or so. Never seen any prior.
Maybe she feels need to boost her profile after a decade of undistinguished service in the senate.
Maybe some liberals eyeing her seat.
“I wrote that she would be better off thinking about covering her backside at the Canberra rape enquiry and they deleted it.”
Reynolds is doing well in the inquiry with a reasonable likelihood that the Commissioner will criticise Drumgold SC for his cross-examination of her.
“Reynolds is doing well in the inquiry ”
The inquiry is doing it wrong then.
WWP: “I don’t know how any faction in WA Labor is alowed to call itself ‘left’”
Strawman. So publicly owned energy infrastructure and the health based covid response that led to the smashing of the conservatives isn’t ‘left’ anymore is it?
You need to stop using this method as your primary technique for dialogue. They’re called fallacies. Your arguments are overwhelmingly invalid because of it. Or is it that you’re just so clueless that you don’t know what any of these words mean? Take your pick.
I know this thread is supposed to be dedicated to Caveman Mark’s departure, and I know many are sceptical of the writings of Shane Dowling, but he thinks that there has been political interference in the Canberra rape outcome. One factor is that local police whose role is to investigate rape allegations so would encounter some pretty confronting stuff are all on stress leave. He reckons it is due to pressure from on high. I agree with Dowling.
https://www.watoday.com.au/politics/western-australia/first-mp-declares-support-for-roger-cook-ahead-of-high-stakes-meeting-20230530-p5dcfm.html
Kalamunda MP Matthew Hughes is the first member of Labor’s left faction to publicly declare his support for Roger Cook to be the premier of Western Australia.
Hughes told media he was supporting Cook as “the best person for the job” while walking into the United Workers Union headquarters in Perth where a meeting of UWU-aligned MPs was scheduled to take place at 10am.
The meeting of about 26 UWU Labor MPs will likely result in who the next premier of the state is as they hash out who they want to nominate for the role – Cook or Health Minister Amber-Jade Sanderson.
Hughes left UWU’s headquarters shortly after arriving as the party secretly rescheduled the meeting to avoid waiting media.
“Strawman. So publicly owned energy infrastructure and the health based covid response that led to the smashing of the conservatives isn’t ‘left’ anymore is it?
You need to stop using this method as your primary technique for dialogue. They’re called fallacies. Your arguments are overwhelmingly invalid because of it. Or is it that you’re just so clueless that you don’t know what any of these words mean? Take your pick.”
You sweetie should learn what words mean before you use them.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Straw_man
I wasn’t refuting an argument I was making a left right characterisation. It is my opinion.
You calling it a strawman is in fact a fallacy (a pretty idiotic one to be sure but you do your best love) you are trying to use to discredit the characterisation. So super super dumb irony for you princess. You should consider actually arguing rather than using the wrong word, it makes you look like an idiot a raises questions about your level of good faith.
To dumb to refute this kind of idiocy you indulge in when you aren’t able to debate.
You did slide in a couple of potential arguments into your bizarre and completely incorrect use of straw man, and while on the whole the deranged post of yours isn’t near the bar to deserve an intelligent or considered response.
However you referred to state owned energy infrastructure and the covid health response.
I’m not sure of Regan, Thatcher and Howard’s first term response to covid on a left right frame, they didn’t have face covid, so that is an odd place to pitch a battle. Even odder when you consider the response to covid around the world was largely similar on a left / right basis. The very far right crazies in the USA did fight and win a battle against basic sensible elements of that response but again I’m not seeing how it helps you make an argument on a left right scale.
On energy, I’ll give you that, Regan, first term Howard and Thatcher were all opposed to state ownership. And on a left / right scale that would incline to the left.
But a characterisation takes into account the full fact matrix and all the relevant factors, and I’m very comfortable with my characterisation. Your response certainly didn’t make me rethink the characterisation, but it was hilarious, that level of stupid in writing is very very funny to see.
Because I’m a kind gentle soul I would recommend reading chapters 34 and 35 of Mark Forsyth’s “The Elements of Eloquence”. I am much guilty of Chapter 34, mainly because it is quick easy and even the people who don’t know the meaning of half the words they use can spot it. For fun I should try to engage in more of chapter 35 and the other elements of eloquence.
soo sanderson is going to be next premier has the backing of smith and kelley from united workers the dominant faction telling only matthew hughes publickly backed cook no other mpp patrick gorman a ferderal perth mp is also close to mcgowan and wa labor
The United Workers Union owns the Left Faction and Labor Party in WA. Occasionally there is some resistance from the CFMEU and Right but they need special circumstances. We will now see what a UWU Left/Female ALP Government is really like.
Although I suppose there is a chance there could be a minority Left/Right deal that supports Roger Cook. That might be the special circumstances.
“We will now see what a UWU Left/Female ALP Government is really like.”
It does seem like a signal of change, which is IMHO a good thing.
WWP: “I don’t know how any faction in WA Labor is alowed to call itself ‘left”
You never established this assertion. You then went and extrapolated on that assertion. This is a textbook strawman argument. You even put ‘left’ in quotations to establish the basis of your screed.
Stop using strawman arguments. They discount whatever other useful things you might have to say. It is a textbook example of dismissing an argument because it makes it invalid. By definition.
https://www.thinkinglsat.com/articles/valid-and-invalid-arguments
You know why this is important? Because maybe you have an assertion about what being ‘left’ means. Maybe it’s a good one. But I don’t know that. Because all you’ve done is present an invalid argument that negates everything after it.
It doesn’t serve you well. Anyhowz… whatevs.
But if uwu are the most powerful faction whiy did Dave kelley agree to resign after presure to resign but the rights bill hjohnston who dislikes mcgowan he could not be sacked his wife kate doust was all ready attack mcgowan and aterney general so she lost the upper house presidents job if robberts doust and johnston retireretire the old shoppies right will have most likely gone the cfmeu has mostly all ways been in the right there former bos was was aright wing
so not a good look foor cook now he wil most likely retire the deal will most likely be a Sanderson safioti ticket
” This is a textbook strawman argument. ”
Except I linked the definition of straw man from Wikipedia, a definition that makes sense / aligns with what a straw man looks like when the term is used by someone who understands it, and it isn’t that at all.
Lets break it down for your reading and words clearly aren’t your thing. It is a sentence:
“I don’t know how any faction in WA Labor is alowed to call itself ‘left’, they are left in the same sense Thatcher and Reagan were left, significantly less left than first term Howard.”
I say ‘I don’t know how’ … and I still don’t. It is an observation a personal opinion. Now I couldn’t care less what opinion you have, but I’m very interested in alternative intelligent opinions. Now this *checks notes* is a board where people are constantly expressing and swapping opinions. So me doing so offends you and your own personal made up definition of straw man, I really couldn’t care less, but I do care when you take your own special personal meaning of a word that is well defined and understood and apply it as a strawman (in the actual meaning and usage of the term) to claim a bizzare self victory without actually making an argument. That you attack an opinion and declare victory over an opinion with both your own special understanding of straw man, which is of itself a strawman in that it is a fallacy and you are using it instead of making an intelligent argument, which is the actual accepted and used definition of straw man. Which is a massive idiotic self own I’m still laughing at hours later.
Then I follow with a claim / observation / conclusion, that they are the same to the left as Reagan, Thatcher and that first term Howard is to the right of them.
Obviously there is a small shovel of hyperbole here (look up the actual meaning, it will be more useful than just making your own special meaning). There is also a timeshift which makes the comparison, a little bit silly. I know that, it is part of hyperbole. I also know you get exactly what I meant, because hyberbole works even with people who come to reading comprehension without a whole lot of understanding as to what words mean.
It must be frustrating know you hate the point I’m making but having nothing to respond with.
Should I use hyperbole less, in real life yes definitely, here meh, if you waste your time making an calm sensible developed argument here some munt will pick a single sentence and ignore all the other thinking, which still shows more intelligence and thought than bringing your own special personal definition of strawman to the debate.
No charismatic figures in state politics, just dregs who couldn’t cut it in the Federal arena.
I will miss McGowan’s stiff jawed press conferences and poor eye contact.
Anyone with half a profile and political aspirations could venture a hostile takeover in anyone of the dark voids of despair that are State Parliaments.
you need a tldr version. I rarely get past the second sentence. I’ve told you why.
Whatevs.
Nine newspapers reporting Cook has leapfrogged Sanderson
It ain’t over till it’s over
https://www.watoday.com.au/politics/western-australia/roger-cook-leapfrogs-amber-jade-sanderson-in-race-to-become-wa-s-next-premier-20230530-p5dcfm.html
Well I hope they have a contest with members but that hasn’t traditionally been the WA ALP way, which has been based on fake consensus.
The West Australian is reporting Sanderson has told them she’s pulling out.
I saw a bit of Roger Cook during the pandemic, seems like a solid performer to me. McGowan’s shoes will be hard to fill, but Cook’s probably the right person for the gig, at least from this distance.
Toby
If you aint got the numbers, you aint got the numbers.
Best retire gracefully.
And as the usual suspects here would have it, start plotting.
Edit: Evan, solid is probably apt description of Cook. there will never be another McGowan and Cook most likely won’t try to be.
It’s Cook:
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2023-05-30/roger-cook-to-be-new-wa-premier/102411870
Finally, when I hear the name “Cook”, I won’t wince.
So was Sanderson just trying to blow Cook and the others out of the water earlier today?
Tactic didn’t seem to work in the end.
I see, turns out my theory yesterday was off.
I guess it makes sense that it would be Roger Cook in the end. Amber-Jade Sanderson is only 46 and will probably have a chance in future, Cook is 57. I’m guessing that she was told privately to wait her turn.
In a way I’m mildly disappointed, the name “Amber-Jade Sanderson” is a perfect name for a Premier of a state with a significant mining industry.
Kirsdarke: ““Amber-Jade Sanderson” is a perfect name for a Premier of a state with a significant mining industry.”
Ha. So it is. Still… parliamentarian in WA. Still a good name.
so its been a bad year for dave kelly so amwu have more members in parliament then uwu kelley should retire as the so called leading wa labor faction leader first he got dumped from cabenit now he has stufed up with sanderson she had she had the numbers but pulled out
I don’t understand why Amber Jade Sanderson thought she had any hope she’s been in cabinet for only a year and has done little in that time to really impress anyone much. She’s just not been around long enough to gain confidence which is fair enough but it should have bee obvious she’s not a viable leader a this point.
Roger Cook will probably do alright, he’s something of an unknown entity but he’s pretty much a middle of the road Labor candidate so should be expected to win the next state election regardless of the big boots he has to fill.