Polls: Resolve Strategic and Essential Research federal voting intention (open thread)

Two new polls find a slight dip in support for a still dominant government and its leader.

The two polls whose Indigenous Voice results were covered in the previous post have now come through with voting intention results:

Resolve Strategic has Labor down two on the primary vote to 40%, the Coalition steady on 30%, the Greens steady on 12% and One Nation up one to 6%. No two-party preferred is provided, but I make this out to be a narrowing in Labor’s lead from 61-39 to 60-40, maintaining this series’ recent record as Labor’s strongest. Personal ratings show a softening for Anthony Albanese, down three on approval to 53% and up six on disapproval to 35%, while Peter Dutton is respectively steady on 28% and down one to 48%, with Albanese’s lead as preferred prime minister in from 53-20 to 53-22. The poll was conducted Tuesday to Sunday from a sample of 1606. UPDATE: Further findings from the Resolve Strategic poll include 17% support for the government extending Philip Lowe’s term, against 52% for “choose someone else”. Eighty-two per cent expect further interest rate rises this year, with only 3% disagreeing; 67% expect inflation will get worse in the near future, with 9% disagreeing; 29% think higher rates are slowing inflation, with 30% disagreeing; 27% expect inflation to slow in the near future, with 40% disagreeing.

• Primary votes from Essential Research, which include a 5% undecided component, have Labor down two to 32%, the Coalition up one to 32%, the Greens up one to 16% and One Nation down one to 5%. The pollster’s 2PP+ measure has Labor steady on 52% and the Coalition down one to 42%, with 5% undecided. Its questions on interest rates had respondents gauging the impact of six potential causes on a four-point scale, with combined responses of “a lot” or “a fair amount” coming in at 89% for inflation, 76% for pandemic-related supply chain disruptions, 75% for the federal government, 71% for Reserve Bank overreaction, 59% for the war in Ukraine and 45% for wage rises. Pessimism prevails, with 63% expecting more rate increases, 30% believing they are at their peak but will not come down for some time, with only 7% expecting them to fall soon. The poll was conducted Wednesday to Sunday from a sample of 1123.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,367 comments on “Polls: Resolve Strategic and Essential Research federal voting intention (open thread)”

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  1. It comes down to whether you see politics as a team sport where barracking and vibes are the point, or whether you see politics as systems and structures that affect the wellbeing of people and the natural world, and improving those things is the point.

    I see politics what’s based in reality, which is the conservatives will get back in power sometime, and when they do, they will do everything they can to dismantle anything Labor does, simply because their is a significant portion of population who fear change.

  2. it also appears phillop gaetjones despite his long service with costelow chief of staff morrison pmc head has not been able to find a job maybi the reason whiy cash is sticking arround the liberal woman seem very unpleasant i thought paybne was a acseption came a cros as okay

  3. Steve777 says:
    Friday, June 16, 2023 at 11:17 pm
    The only visibility I have of Ms Credlin these days is from second hand reports I see here and elsewhere. …………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………
    I try to see and read as much as I can re Credlin.
    I like to see her suffer.
    And believe me, she and her colleagues are all suffering at the moment.
    The only thing she has going for her is a minority coalition government
    in a state with a population of 545,000.

    Suffer Baby Suffer.

  4. it also appears phillop gaetjones despite his long service with costelow chief of staff morrison pmc head has not been able to find a job maybi the reason whiy cash is sticking arround the liberal woman seem very unpleasant i thought paybne was a acseption came a cros as okay maybi it was not a suprise he made sexist noises during ajackqui lambi speech in 2021 two years a go how ever he apoligized

  5. ASIS has no doubt reminded the Federal Government of how Australia spied on Timor Leste and said if we could do it in 2004, the Russians could certainly do it in 2023.

    Meanwhile our Five Eye American and British friends are cordially invited to continuously surveil every single thing done or said by every individual – official or private citizen – in every corner of the country.

  6. steve777: “It would be a bit of a worry if she [Credlin] were regarded by the “Liberals” as someone appropriate to fill a casual Senate vacancy.”

    One word: KatherineMoiraDeemingDeves.

  7. Nicko says:
    Friday, June 16, 2023 at 11:30 pm

    I see politics what’s based in reality, which is the conservatives will get back in power sometime, and when they do, they will do everything they can to dismantle anything Labor does, simply because their is a significant portion of population who fear change.
    ………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………….
    98.6 agrees :
    Yes I agree but shit happens to all sides.
    Think back to the Labor split in the 50s which kept them out for decades.
    With the coming of the Teals something similar could happen to the liberals.
    We will find out in 2 years time.
    Labor just needs to win at least two or three in a row so the dismantling of what Labor does is difficult
    eg Medicare and Super, if not impossible. Hence the enshrining of the Voice in the constitution.
    We would be stupid to think that Labor is going to have an easy ride this term or in any term, its always been that way.
    In the meantime I’m making the most of having a Labor PM and 5 Labor Premiers.
    Life Is Good.

  8. Aaron, the trial was not called off by the prosecutor. It was called off by the trial judge because one of the jurors had seriously adversely affected the judicial process, making it unfair to proceed further without recommencing before a new jury. And that is what the judge ordered.

    As far as I am aware from what has been reported, at this point the complainant suffered significant health issues, matters came to light about alleged police misfeasance, about transcripts of the original trial evidence being improperly distributed to unauthorised parties, about allegations of collusion between the police and the defence over certain information, about the dissemination of privileged material and communications, about the involvement of the press in improperly obtaining and distributing documents and other communications, about the publication of misinformation and prejudicial, emotive and untrue reports in the press having the likely effect of prejudicing future jurors, about the actions and writings of certain politicians and, just quietly, the almost impossibility that with this background a fair verdict could be obtained on retrial.

    Whatever way our feelings fall about this outcome, I don’t see what else the prosecutor could do.

  9. Hang on a sec. Isn’t Peta going to take on Dan and slay him and be crowned Queen? I’ve watched every single episode of this one sided “contest” and I’m expecting Dragons gosh darn it. Please don’t tell me there is a slink off into another realm and a slide into delusional muttering of what glory there should have been.

    Very disappointing ending if that happens though perhaps I’m discounting the rise of the Panihi as a sequel.

  10. Watermelon says:
    Friday, June 16, 2023 at 11:35 pm
    ASIS has no doubt reminded the Federal Government of how Australia spied on Timor Leste and said if we could do it in 2004, the Russians could certainly do it in 2023.

    Meanwhile our Five Eye American and British friends are cordially invited to continuously surveil every single thing done or said by every individual – official or private citizen – in every corner of the country.
    ………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………….
    98.6 agrees :
    Yes, some would worry about what you’ve said.
    From what I see and hear and read that sort of spying has been going on forever, not just by Five Eyes but almost by every country on earth, either spying on other countries or their own people.
    Don’t forget the East German Stasi police employed one spy for every 160 of its citizens over 70 years ago and a lot of it was done by electronic surveillance.

  11. Nicko
    I see politics what’s based in reality, which is the conservatives will get back in power sometime, and when they do, they will do everything they can to dismantle anything Labor does, simply because their is a significant portion of population who fear change.
    ————————-
    Its not that people fear change but that people don’t like the change they are seeing.

  12. Who on earth was the dumbass from Queensland Labor Right that put up the heavily-defeated conference motion attempting to “congratulate” the government for AUKUS?

  13. A farcical peace mission

    “https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2023/6/16/south-africas-ramaphosa-arrives-in-ukraine-on-african-peace-mission”

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