Miscellany: seat entitlements, electoral reforms, by-elections latest and more (open thread)

Winners in losers in the carve-up of House of Reps seats between the states, Gerard Rennick’s Senate preselection under challenge, latest by-election developments, and more.

Recent electoral developments at the federal level:

• The population statistics that will be used next month to calculate state and territory House of Representation seat entitlements have been published, and as Antony Green reports, they establish that New South Wales and Victoria will each lose a seat, putting them at 46 and 38 respectively; Western Australia will gain one, putting it at 16; and the others will remain unchanged at Queensland 30, South Australia 10, Tasmania five, the ACT three and the Northern Territory two. The vagaries of rounding mean the total size of the House will be down one to 150. Redistributions will duly be required in three states – Antony Green has a further post looking at the specifics in Western Australia, where the new seat seems likely to be in the eastern suburbs of Perth.

Matthew Killoran of the Courier-Mail reports a view that right-wing Liberal National Party Senator Gerard Rennick will “narrowly see off” challenges to his third position on the Queensland Senate ticket from Nelson Savanh, who works with strategic communications firm Michelson Alexander and appears to be an ideological moderate, and Stuart Fraser, director of a private investment fund.

Jamie Walker of The Australian reports speculation that Pauline Hanson will shortly retire from politics, with her Senate vacancy to be filled by her chief-of-staff, James Ashby, who first came to public attention when he brought sexual harassment allegations against Peter Slipper, then the Speaker and Ashby’s boss, in 2012. Hanson spoke to The Australian of her frustration at being sidelined by a Labor government that prefers to negotiate with Jacqui Lambie and David Pocock to pass contested legislation through the Senate.

• The Guardian has launched an Indigenous Voice poll tracker. Meanwhile, academic Murray Goot has things to say about Newspoll’s recent result and The Australian’s presentation of it.

Paul Sakkal of the Age/Herald reports the Joint Standing Committee on Electoral Matters will shortly recommend donation and spending caps and bans on false information in political advertisements, which have the broad support of the government and the relevant minister, Special Minister of State Don Farrell. Labor’s new draft national platform says it will work towards reducing reliance on donations and move to an expanded public funding system, much of the impetus coming from Clive Palmer’s extravagant electoral spending. Donation caps are opposed by Climate 200 and the Australia Institute, which argue that donor-funded campaigns provide the only opportunity for new entrants to take on incumbents. Donation caps at state level of $6700 a year in New South Wales and $4000 in Victoria were seen as inhibiting teal independent efforts to replicate their successes at federal elections.

• This week’s federal voting intention numbers from Roy Morgan have Labor’s two-party lead out from 55.5-44.5 to 56-44, from primary votes of Labor 35%, Coalition 33.5% and Greens 13.0%.

State by-elections latest:

• The Victorian Liberals will choose their candidate for the Warrandyte by-election on Sunday. Rachel Baxendale of The Australian reports the outcome is “far from clear”, with 22-year-old law student Antonietta Di Cosmo di Cosmo reckoned as good a chance as any out of the field of nine candidates. Conservative allies of Deakin MP Michael Sukkar are reportedly split between former Institute of Public Affairs executive director John Roskam and former Pentecostal pastor Nicole Ta-Ei Werner, while the opposing factional claim is divided between KPMG director Sarah Overton, tech business founder Jason McClintock and former Matthew Guy staffer Jemma Townson. Meanwhile, The Age reports Labor MPs are pressing for the party to field a candidate. Confirmation of a date for the by-election is still a while off, with outgoing member Ryan Smith not to formally resign until July 7.

• In Western Australia, Josh Zimmerman of The West Australian reports Labor’s administrative committee has confirmed party staffer Magenta Marshall as its candidate to succeed Mark McGowan in Rockingham on July 29. Rather surprisingly, the Liberals have committed to field a candidate in a seat McGowan won in 2021 by 37.7%.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,896 comments on “Miscellany: seat entitlements, electoral reforms, by-elections latest and more (open thread)”

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  1. WeWantPaul says:
    Wednesday, June 21, 2023 at 10:00 pm
    Dirty weak cowards punch and he laughs about it. That is NSW for ya.
    中华人民共和国
    They’ve tried it for 43 years cobber. Queensland always the underdogs. They will never learn. Well done Billy Slater. Coaching Royalty now. Two Origins in a row.


  2. Player One says:
    Wednesday, June 21, 2023 at 9:48 pm

    frednk @ #1834 Wednesday, June 21st, 2023 – 9:34 pm

    Just been to a book launch by Alan Finkel for his new book: Powering up.

    Now understand why Andrew Forrest is so interested in hydrogen. Nothing to do with shipping energy to japan, all about Green pig iron.

    P1 and Rex Douglas would do well to get a copy and read it. With a bit of understanding of what is being attempted They might post less nonsense.

    You enjoy your ignorance don’t you P1.

    Read the book, at the very least you could then make comments relevant to it’s content.

  3. WeWantPaul

    “ unbelievable are the referees paid to help NSW? Ridiculously inconsistent in the ruck, with the tackle rules, with pretty much the whole game”

    Clearly not enough. Channel Nine were probably hoping for a lot more. I wonder how many in Sydney switched off at half time?

    Qld defence was dominant, and NSW attack was very disorganised and sloppy.


  4. Socratessays:
    Wednesday, June 21, 2023 at 10:07 pm
    WeWantPaul

    “ unbelievable are the referees paid to help NSW? Ridiculously inconsistent in the ruck, with the tackle rules, with pretty much the whole game”

    Clearly not enough. Channel Nine were probably hoping for a lot more. I wonder how many in Sydney switched off at half time?

    Qld defence was dominant, and NSW attack was very disorganised and sloppy.

    I did.

  5. Looks like Morrison has shot his mouth off about the AUKUS deal in a new book, almost boasting about how he deceived Macron but did not lie to him.
    “ Morrison was interviewed extensively for a new chapter of the book The Secret History of The Five Eyes by journalist Richard Kerbaj, in which he reveals new details of how he duped Macron, while maintaining that not telling him was “not the same as lying to him”.
    https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/jun/21/scott-morrison-hid-plans-from-macron-to-ditch-french-submarine-contract-new-book-reveals?CMP=share_btn_tw

    WTF! Why does everything have to be about Morrison? Is he unable to shut up?
    Does he not realise that Australia still has to maintain a relationship with France?

    Also, didn’t Biden insist Morrison square things up with Macron? (And Labor).
    If Morrison did not tell Macron, then he broke his word to Biden.

  6. Nicko @ #1841 Wednesday, June 21st, 2023 – 9:51 pm

    In other words, “Business As Usual”. Un.Fucking.Believable.

    What is you alternative?

    Gosh, that’s a tough one. Let me think … just brainstorming here …we might stop approving new fossil fuel extraction …. you know, that thing that the IPCC has said is required to have any hope of preventing catastrophic climate breakdown … might that be a thing we might consider?

    Just a thought.

  7. Ven says:
    Wednesday, June 21, 2023 at 10:12 pm

    Socratessays:
    Wednesday, June 21, 2023 at 10:07 pm
    WeWantPaul

    “ unbelievable are the referees paid to help NSW? Ridiculously inconsistent in the ruck, with the tackle rules, with pretty much the whole game”

    Clearly not enough. Channel Nine were probably hoping for a lot more. I wonder how many in Sydney switched off at half time?

    Qld defence was dominant, and NSW attack was very disorganised and sloppy.

    I did.
    中华人民共和国
    They should move the final game to Townsville. Magnificent Stadium and I can guarantee a sold out crowd.

    Well I’m off to bed. Stayed up to watch the Cricket and now listen to the Football.

    What a great day to be alive – the sun really will shine more brightly across Queensland tomorrow.

  8. NSW only lost because their best players were injured.

    Well, it would have been closer, if nothing else.

    And it would have been a donut but for the Souths player, Cookie. 😉

  9. Has anyone found a bookmaker giving odds for The Voice referendum?

    Seriously, when I google it, all that comes up are odds for the 2022 series of that TV show The Voice. Its so disappointing


  10. Upnorthsays:
    Wednesday, June 21, 2023 at 10:16 pm
    Ven says:
    Wednesday, June 21, 2023 at 10:12 pm

    Socratessays:
    Wednesday, June 21, 2023 at 10:07 pm
    WeWantPaul

    “ unbelievable are the referees paid to help NSW? Ridiculously inconsistent in the ruck, with the tackle rules, with pretty much the whole game”

    Clearly not enough. Channel Nine were probably hoping for a lot more. I wonder how many in Sydney switched off at half time?

    Qld defence was dominant, and NSW attack was very disorganised and sloppy.

    I did.
    中华人民共和国
    They should move the final game to Townsville. Magnificent Stadium and I can guarantee a sold out crowd.

    Well I’m off to bed. Stayed up to watch the Cricket and now listen to the Football.

    What a great day to be alive – the sun really will shine more brightly across Queensland tomorrow.

    Then why do need NSW team if you want to play all the matches in Queensland? You can QLD1 & QLD2 playing against each other. 🙂
    Also, with Third match in QLD, not just me nobody in NSW will watch it. 🙂

  11. Upnorth at 10.05 says :

    They’ve tried it for 43 years cobber. Queensland always the underdogs. They will never learn. Well done Billy Slater. Coaching Royalty now. Two Origins in a row.
    ………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………..
    OH BILLY !

  12. Rufus Leekin @ #1749 Wednesday, June 21st, 2023 – 5:06 pm

    Pi(ssy) just leave it be now you lost the argument and sound like a whiny undergraduate complaining to his professor about his Pass Condeded.

    There’s no way you’d be able to name 10 Labor Federal politicians who did not either work in state or federal MPs office, Labor HQ or Union HQ (research officer) or some associated think tank like McKell.
    The party will continue to insulate itself as it creates a professional political class that may have had distinct connections to the working class but moves further and further away from it with its MP selections.

    I have a strong impression that you have not the faintest idea about anything much. None of the following eighteen meet your criteria, and this is just my two local members, and the Ministry.

    Emma McBride, my local member. – Chief Pharmacist Wyong Hospital.

    Gordon Reid – Member for Robertson, just down the road. Good mate.
    – Emergency Doctor – Gosford Hospital

    And just from the Ministry:
    Anne Aly – Counter Terrorism Lecturer and consultant

    Linda Burney – Teacher

    Jason Clare – Executive at Transurban

    Julie Collins – Did not graduate from High School. Multiple Jobs

    Mark Dreyfus – Practising Lawyer – Represented Stolen Generations
    – Director of Law Council of Australia

    Andrew Giles – Practising Lawyer, Slater and Gordon

    Matt Keogh – Practising Lawyer

    Catherine King – Social Worker, then Senior Mgt in Dept of Health,
    – then KPMG Consultant

    Madeleine King – Practising Lawyer, then several senior positions at UWA

    Kristy McBain – Family Plumbing Business with husband

    Clare O’Neil – youngest female mayor in Australian history.
    – Engagement Manager at McKinsey & Company

    Tanya Plibersek – Domestic Violence Unit NSW Government

    Amanda Rishworth – Practising Clinical Psychologist

    Michelle Rowland – senior lawyer, specialising in competition and regulation
    in telecommunications, media and technology.

    Anika Wells – Practising Compensation Lawyer Maurice Blackburn
    – immigration detention

    Murray Watt – Practising Lawyer – Senior Associate Maurice Blackburn

    You are just plain wrong. NONE of the above spent any significant period in their pre-parliamentary lives as party apparatchiks.

  13. Biden shouldn’t be as unpopular as Trump — but he is

    Biden has a 4 percent approval rating among Republicans. That’s much worse than Clinton (20 percent) and Obama (16 percent) but not unlike Trump’s 8 percent among Democrats.

    What’s harder to understand is why Biden is so unpopular. There are some obvious reasons that he is not loved. Inflation is unusually high. Negative partisanship has grown substantially since Clinton’s tenure — it’s not clear any president could have 20 percent approval from people in the opposite party. The president’s centrist, bipartisan approach likely ensures a bloc of younger and more progressive Democrats won’t be thrilled with him. Voters in Britain, Canada, France and numerous other countries are also dissatisfied with their leaders, according to polls, so perhaps it’s almost impossible to be a popular politician in 2023.
    https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2023/06/20/biden-unpopularity-low-approval-ratings-bad-for-democracy/

    Biden should check notes with Modi, whom he meets tomorrow for official State visit and State dinner.

  14. Ven says:
    Wednesday, June 21, 2023 at 10:24 pm

    Upnorthsays:
    Wednesday, June 21, 2023 at 10:16 pm
    Ven says:
    Wednesday, June 21, 2023 at 10:12 pm

    Socratessays:
    Wednesday, June 21, 2023 at 10:07 pm
    WeWantPaul

    “ unbelievable are the referees paid to help NSW? Ridiculously inconsistent in the ruck, with the tackle rules, with pretty much the whole game”

    Clearly not enough. Channel Nine were probably hoping for a lot more. I wonder how many in Sydney switched off at half time?

    Qld defence was dominant, and NSW attack was very disorganised and sloppy.

    I did.
    中华人民共和国
    They should move the final game to Townsville. Magnificent Stadium and I can guarantee a sold out crowd.

    Well I’m off to bed. Stayed up to watch the Cricket and now listen to the Football.

    What a great day to be alive – the sun really will shine more brightly across Queensland tomorrow.

    Then why do need NSW team if you want to play all the matches in Queensland? You can QLD1 & QLD2 playing against each other.
    Also, with Third match in QLD, not just me nobody in NSW will watch it.
    中华人民共和国
    Ok good idea Ven!

    Now I really gotta get some sleep

  15. VCT Et3e says:
    Wednesday, June 21, 2023 at 10:08 pm
    https://apple.news/AH8TPCMMCROyW0qW0OgaGtQ

    … in heaven cars are German, Japanese, may be Korean?
    …………………………………………………………………………………………..
    98.6 hopes :
    As long as my 1974 Chocolate Colour Toyota Celica with Ivory seats is there I’ll be happy.

  16. Clare O’Neil – youngest female mayor in Australian history.
    – Engagement Manager at McKinsey & Company
    ________________________________

    I’m not sure about the others Yabba named but Clare O’Neil was involved in the factions since she was a teenager.

    Working at McKinsey and being in local government were just careful steps in building a political profile for preselection.

    She would have also worked in plenty of MP’s offices along the way.

    She’s not a mayor who wandered into ALP HQ one day to try her hand at politics.

  17. Gosh, that’s a tough one. Let me think … just brainstorming here …we might stop approving new fossil fuel extraction …. you know, that thing that the IPCC has said is required to have any hope of preventing catastrophic climate breakdown … might that be a thing we might consider?

    Just a thought.

    You disapprove mining minerals for renewables, so where do we get the energy from?

  18. bcsays:
    Wednesday, June 21, 2023 at 11:38 pm
    You missed my local MP: Zaneta Mascarenhas, member for Swan. A former engineer, including FIFO work.
    ___________
    Member of the AMWU. Got the preselection in a factional clash.

  19. Pisays:
    Wednesday, June 21, 2023 at 11:48 pm
    I seem to remember the metric “90-95%” was used.
    __________
    I’m not making the same argument as Rufus.

  20. nath says:
    Wednesday, June 21, 2023 at 11:45 pm
    bcsays:
    Wednesday, June 21, 2023 at 11:38 pm
    You missed my local MP: Zaneta Mascarenhas, member for Swan. A former engineer, including FIFO work.
    ___________
    Member of the AMWU. Got the preselection in a factional clash.
    **********
    How dreadful. An engineer who was a member of their union.
    You’re usually more credible than that.

  21. AndrewMcKsays:

    How dreadful. An engineer who was a member of their union.
    You’re usually more credible than that.
    ____________
    You are assuming that I think it’s dreadful. I think it’s great an engineer is in Parliament and I’m sure she’s terrific.

    But to think that the vast majority of Labor politicians are not preselected entirely for factional reasons is naive.

    The vast majority of these people are factional animals, professional politicians, not people with random occupations who decided to run for Parliament.

  22. I mean, Clare O’Neil, named by Yabba as a mayor who worked at McKinsey.

    You wouldn’t think that she was a protege of Simon Crean for over a decade who eventually handed his seat to her.

  23. Which is more truthful and more accurate?

    That people with all sorts of occupations can become members of parliament or that people with strong factional history and backing can become members of Parliament?

  24. nath says:
    Wednesday, June 21, 2023 at 11:59 pm
    AndrewMcKsays:

    How dreadful. An engineer who was a member of their union.
    You’re usually more credible than that.
    ____________
    You are assuming that I think it’s dreadful. I think it’s great an engineer is in Parliament and I’m sure she’s terrific.

    But to think that the vast majority of Labor politicians are not preselected entirely for factional reasons is naive.

    The vast majority of these people are factional animals, professional politicians, not people with random occupations who decided to run for Parliament.
    *******
    R’s position was that Labor MPs didn’t have real world experience. Zanata was mentioned, along with many others, to demonstrate the falsity of that position.
    Your, different, argument, seems to be that previous or current political involvement or experience should be held against candidates for public office.
    You may have trouble finding any viable candidates using that test.

  25. Your, different, argument, seems to be that previous or current political involvement or experience should be held against candidates for public office.
    ________________
    No. I’m no fan of factions, but I don’t suppose anyone with political ambitions have much choice if they want to get involved.

    I just like seeing things for what they are. Especially in politics. I like to understand the truth behind the bullshit. The real reasons things happen.

  26. It is a common mischievous misconception that unions aren’t full of people. People that, almost by definition, work with each other. It is not strange to find people that grow up and work together over their careers, have similar views, and want to support one another. That’s people. You dont get to cast a suspicious eye at people for acting like people.

    It is NOT the same as a corporate entity owning media, and spamming candidates they support across every medium platform. Ya know, like Rowena Campbell.

    If you view people coming from unions, that are literally groups of people looking after people, as a negative, the problem is in your head. People from unions have experience working with people. That’s people being people. And democracy. And negotiation. And safety. Those things do actually translate well to politics.

    If you’re saying that you don’t trust people because they’re in a union, in Australia, you’re gonna have a bad time.

  27. And for what it’s worth I happen to think that Clare O’Neil is a quality person.

    But to present her as someone who was in local government and worked at McKinsey misrepresents and really undervalues her.

    She’s been a professional politician with serious political ambitions since she was 18.

  28. You know what? I know almost nothing about the personal lives of any Australian politician. I have no idea why that’s even remotely relevant.

  29. I agree with Nath on this. The current politicians who I knew in my university days were all clearly positioning themselves for their future careers.

  30. Nicko @ #1876 Wednesday, June 21st, 2023 – 11:28 pm

    Gosh, that’s a tough one. Let me think … just brainstorming here …we might stop approving new fossil fuel extraction …. you know, that thing that the IPCC has said is required to have any hope of preventing catastrophic climate breakdown … might that be a thing we might consider?

    Just a thought.

    You disapprove mining minerals for renewables, so where do we get the energy from?

    I don’t disapprove of mining minerals for renewables. It is necessary but not sufficient. I do strongly disapprove of thinking this is enough of a contribution, or that it allows us to continue extracting fossil fuels. Which, if you listen to Finkel, you find he supports.

  31. Jesus said that the poor will always be with us and a whole bunch of mum and dad investors jumped up and down with joy as they realised the poor could fund their retirement.

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