Recent electoral developments at the federal level:
• The population statistics that will be used next month to calculate state and territory House of Representation seat entitlements have been published, and as Antony Green reports, they establish that New South Wales and Victoria will each lose a seat, putting them at 46 and 38 respectively; Western Australia will gain one, putting it at 16; and the others will remain unchanged at Queensland 30, South Australia 10, Tasmania five, the ACT three and the Northern Territory two. The vagaries of rounding mean the total size of the House will be down one to 150. Redistributions will duly be required in three states – Antony Green has a further post looking at the specifics in Western Australia, where the new seat seems likely to be in the eastern suburbs of Perth.
• Matthew Killoran of the Courier-Mail reports a view that right-wing Liberal National Party Senator Gerard Rennick will “narrowly see off” challenges to his third position on the Queensland Senate ticket from Nelson Savanh, who works with strategic communications firm Michelson Alexander and appears to be an ideological moderate, and Stuart Fraser, director of a private investment fund.
• Jamie Walker of The Australian reports speculation that Pauline Hanson will shortly retire from politics, with her Senate vacancy to be filled by her chief-of-staff, James Ashby, who first came to public attention when he brought sexual harassment allegations against Peter Slipper, then the Speaker and Ashby’s boss, in 2012. Hanson spoke to The Australian of her frustration at being sidelined by a Labor government that prefers to negotiate with Jacqui Lambie and David Pocock to pass contested legislation through the Senate.
• The Guardian has launched an Indigenous Voice poll tracker. Meanwhile, academic Murray Goot has things to say about Newspoll’s recent result and The Australian’s presentation of it.
• Paul Sakkal of the Age/Herald reports the Joint Standing Committee on Electoral Matters will shortly recommend donation and spending caps and bans on false information in political advertisements, which have the broad support of the government and the relevant minister, Special Minister of State Don Farrell. Labor’s new draft national platform says it will work towards reducing reliance on donations and move to an expanded public funding system, much of the impetus coming from Clive Palmer’s extravagant electoral spending. Donation caps are opposed by Climate 200 and the Australia Institute, which argue that donor-funded campaigns provide the only opportunity for new entrants to take on incumbents. Donation caps at state level of $6700 a year in New South Wales and $4000 in Victoria were seen as inhibiting teal independent efforts to replicate their successes at federal elections.
• This week’s federal voting intention numbers from Roy Morgan have Labor’s two-party lead out from 55.5-44.5 to 56-44, from primary votes of Labor 35%, Coalition 33.5% and Greens 13.0%.
State by-elections latest:
• The Victorian Liberals will choose their candidate for the Warrandyte by-election on Sunday. Rachel Baxendale of The Australian reports the outcome is “far from clear”, with 22-year-old law student Antonietta Di Cosmo di Cosmo reckoned as good a chance as any out of the field of nine candidates. Conservative allies of Deakin MP Michael Sukkar are reportedly split between former Institute of Public Affairs executive director John Roskam and former Pentecostal pastor Nicole Ta-Ei Werner, while the opposing factional claim is divided between KPMG director Sarah Overton, tech business founder Jason McClintock and former Matthew Guy staffer Jemma Townson. Meanwhile, The Age reports Labor MPs are pressing for the party to field a candidate. Confirmation of a date for the by-election is still a while off, with outgoing member Ryan Smith not to formally resign until July 7.
• In Western Australia, Josh Zimmerman of The West Australian reports Labor’s administrative committee has confirmed party staffer Magenta Marshall as its candidate to succeed Mark McGowan in Rockingham on July 29. Rather surprisingly, the Liberals have committed to field a candidate in a seat McGowan won in 2021 by 37.7%.
Steady on. Voter preferences after placing The Greens at one, flow predominately and consistently to Labor.
Soc: “the truth abridged”
totes stealing that.
On Max Moore-Homeless, the adolescent-no man:
His arguments are a fig leaf for appeasing the affluent who want to keep living in a leafy inner western suburb without more neighbours. Sorry Max, no.
Brisbane has a lower population density than Los Angeles. The traffic problems he refers to can be solved with more public transportation, which is also one of the Greens policies. Why not a busway to Kenmore, Max?
Likewise the flooding problem, while real, could be dealt with by flood mitigation works that might take up 10% of the area of a large site.
If Canberra can cope with medium density residential development along the light rail corridor, then surely Brisbane can too.
Pi
Free use granted to all Labor supporters 😉
Griff @ #451 Sunday, June 18th, 2023 – 3:27 pm
~80% It’s the other 20% that are the problem. 😉
Soc,
Wait and see what Rose Jackson is going to do to Inner Sydney! All those knowledge economy elites who populate the place and hide behind preservation orders, are going to get a rude surprise.
Of course, Rose isn’t going to ruin the ambience of the inner city but she’s going to make sure there’s enough Social and Affordable Housing put back there to help solve the housing problem.
Go Tszyu btw. I dont think he took a single punch.
The major power assets in WA are State-owned. The State is well into the process of de-coaling and de-gassing the power system in this very highly-energy-intensive economy. By the end of the decade most of WA’s power will be supplied by renewables. This will have been done by Labor in office. WWP will have to find something else to whinge about. Of course, in QLD – one of world’s great coal provinces –
Labor are also using State ownership of the power system to de-coal and de-gas their grids, just as in SA Labor built their renewables system.
This is not accidental. This is attributable to the adoption, declaration and implementation of policies by Labor over the last decade or more, policies which in WA and QLD have included retention of electricity assets in State hands. This has been very deliberate.
The word on twitter is that in the Victorian Liberal preselection for Warrandyte, it’s a close contest between John Roskam of the IPA and Antoinetta Di Cosmo (22 year old staffer for Ryan Smith’s office) to get the candidacy.
Rumours have it that if it’s Roskam then Labor will likely contest it, but if it’s Di Cosmo then they’ll stay out of it.
A nice article on recent history of indoor air quality in the NY Times. What is old is new again.
https://www.nytimes.com/2023/06/17/health/covid-ventilation-air-quality.html
Cat
Go Rose!
I have inspected (for work) several cities in France, including regionals, not just Paris and Lyon, that have created very attractive and affordable residential medium density developments along LRT corridors. The LRT gives adequate corridor capacity without needing as many traffic lanes. This leaves space for widening footpaths, gardens etc.
The LRT doesn’t have to cost billions as Sydney SE did under Gladys either. Canberra stage 1 finished under budget and was excellent value.
Even Sydney SE LRT was one fifth the price of the Sydney WestConnex toll road tunnel project. These sorts of projects that incentivise redevelopment are far more affordable than tunnelled freeways or heavy rail.
Can’t get enough of the minutiae of the Trump indictment?
What about all those other cases? What happens next? Can Judge Cannon stymie things? Does Jack Smith know what he’s doing?
This hour long discussion between 2 trial lawyers, who aren’t fond of Dotard, and understand very well his tactics – answer all of these questions and more. There are a couple of ‘paid promotions’ which you can fast forward through..
https://www.youtube.com/live/enDhqySWNlY?feature=share
Stooge: ” policies by Labor over the last decade or more, policies which in WA and QLD have included retention of electricity assets in State hands. This has been very deliberate.”
Hey man, I love the lib lab divide as much as the next guy, but it is the federal LNP that is out of step on renewable energy in Oz. The SA Weatherill/Marshall/Malinauskas policies are unchanged. The NSW policies are unchanged. Tas libs are the same. State governments must provide the energy. They know renewables are cheaper. That’s why they’re doing it.
But the fed LNP has latched on to crazy. US crazy. The UK is full on renewables. I think it’s important to make that distinction. I really wish the federal liberals were capable of purging themselves of the crazies. The merging of the LNP in QLD may have killed that party.
Soc,
I’ve even spoken with Rose about innovative ways she can provide housing for the homeless, by using disused rail land or corridors near transport that are too small for traditional development so as to put in place Tiny Home villages, smaller than your average caravan park, but with wraparound services for the people who will be housed there, in order to not just put them in a box and forget about them. Which has been the cause of a lot of problems for this particular group of people in the past.
I don’t know why Labor would sit out the Warrandyte by-election if there is a 22 year old running. They would not need to campaign on the candidates age but there would be some members of the community unhappy about being represented by someone that young. Also if she worked for Ryan Smith it is highly likely that she holds views that lie outside the mainstream.
>Brisbane has a lower population density than Los Angeles. The traffic problems he refers to can be solved with more public transportation, which is also one of the Greens policies. Why not a busway to Kenmore, Max?
You mean the Labor state goverment who has said that that is not enough people to make happen?
(the LNP state member has been pushing it as well)
>Likewise the flooding problem, while real, could be dealt with by flood mitigation works that might take up 10% of the area of a large site.
Pushing the water onto other places?
>The chances of People like Max C-M, Rebecca and Catprog voting Green 1 LNP 2
Once when Labor ran a horrible campagain with absolutly no postive plan
>And what’s even better, Australia is going to be supplying Renewable Energy to countries who don’t have the space to generate enough of their own.
I hope so. But the problem is getting the cable down or getting hydrogen working.
Cat
Some Australian housing (building and subdivision) standards are very unsuitable. France, Germany, Holland and Denmark have much more practical standards for such things that still preserve building quality for the occupant.
Rosie (and others) should look beyond UK or USA for good guidelines to do such work.
sprocket_ @ #462 Sunday, June 18th, 2023 – 3:51 pm
Thank you. Queued for watching after I finish the video on entropy, S = k ln Ω. 😉
Maybe Tim can emulate this great moment in Australian boxing
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=-QF4uuvgZ-U
@B.S. Fairman
I don’t know either, but Stephen Mayne says that word on the ground is that Labor would be more fired up about the campaign if Roskam is the candidate, since “he’s a seasoned performer and a potential leader”. I’m guessing that if that’s the case, then they’d be less fired up about running against Di Cosmo, who is also a local, unlike Roskam.
Plus I read earlier that it’d cost around $400,000 to run such a campaign and Labor doesn’t particularly need the seat at this stage, if it wins then all that would happen would be that Pesutto would be booted as leader.
Also I suppose the most likely Labor candidate would be Naomi Oakley, who was Labor’s 2022 candidate for Warrandyte, so her wanting or not wanting to run again would be a factor.
Some good news on EV prices, BYD is about to release its Dolphin model onto the Australian market Monday, which should be priced well under $50k, possibly under $45k. Good policy will make these sort of cars more affordable and available.
https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2023/jun/18/hopes-launch-of-new-electric-car-could-spark-price-war-in-australia
What kind of moron would vote for this crap? *
“UK delis could be forced to put up prices after new Brexit tax”
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2023/jun/17/uk-delis-could-be-forced-to-put-up-prices-after-new-brexit-tax
* obviously a tory voting moron 😡
Kirksdale – It is not that much to run a barebones campaign, it would be more like $100,000 at the state level. But the Victorian ALP is cashed up and the Liberals are broke. Part of the logic for Labor running would be to get the Liberals to expend some of their rare dollars. The Liberals will have to throw the kitchen sink at it if Labor runs, and probably can get away with less if they don’t.
I am not sure how good Mayne’s contacts are any more. He seems to be close to people on the Right of the ALP but they are not running the show no more.
“By the end of the decade most of WA’s power will be supplied by renewables. This will have been done by Labor in office. WWP will have to find something else to whinge about. ”
I’m hoping you are right, and that the new Premier isn’t quite the same go slow. They are deep in their second term and have achieved next to nothing. But for covid they might have been looking at leaving office having barely achieved the very basic parts of their metronet promises, having taken most of 8 years to complete a project people would have expected finished (if they’d actually chosen to start like they’d promised it probably would have been) in the first term.
If we hadn’t known that the transition needed to be finished *checks notes* about now, a term a half of doing nothing might make sense in context it is a disgrace.
I don’t know why / how you got to set such an incredibly low (almost non-existent bar) but people with two working braincells and a vague understanding of the science would be setting a bar so much higher you can’t even see it looking up from yours.
Labor so tends to spend slightly less on byelections than the Liberals tend to pay for letterbox drops (which are dropping in effectiveness). There is a lack of useful local media to advertise in anymore (The Manningham Leader ceased in 2020 etc). And that leaves targeted Facebook, google ads etc.
This weekend’s opinion poll in the Irish Republic
Sinn Féin – 34 (-1)
Fine Gael – 20 (+3)
Fianna Fáil – 21 (-1)
Labour – 6 (+2)
Green Party – 6 (+1)
Social Democrats – 2 (-1)
Solidarity/PBP – 2 (+1)
Independents – 9 (-3)
Renua – 1 (+1)
Aontú – 0 (-1)
WWP,Lol
So Amanda Stoker has written a lengthy piece in the AFR, and drops some more insight into why she revealed Van’s behaviour…
I am pleased, however, to see that the Coalition has a leader who takes misconduct of this kind seriously.
Like you, I don’t know the full suite of information that was before Peter Dutton as he made the decision for Senator Van to be excluded from the party room, nor the process adopted to ensure there was natural justice.
I am pleased, however, to see that the Coalition has a leader who takes misconduct of this kind seriously. It is my sincere hope that there will always be a fair process of decision-making adopted where it has such a significant impact on a person’s reputation and career. It is one of many reasons why trial by media is so undesirable.
I have never courted attention over the matter. On Thursday of last week, however, many journalists approached me, who clearly knew about the incident and planned to report on it. Though I would have preferred for the matter to remain private and in the past, I felt it important to ensure that, if the matter was to be reported, the facts were accurately conveyed.
To those lovely people who have reached out in recent days, I’m fine. It takes more than this to get to me.
https://www.afr.com/politics/federal/why-i-said-metoo-about-david-van-20230618-p5dhh8
More is coming to light of the most tragic of the human costs of Russia’s criminal destruction of the Nova Kakhova dam:
“The death toll from flooding caused by the destruction of the Kakhovka dam has risen to 16 in [Ukrainian-controlled Kherson] and 29 in [Russian-occupied Kherson], according to briefings by Kyiv and Moscow.”
https://www.theguardian.com/world/live/2023/jun/18/russia-ukraine-war-live-ukraine-destroys-russian-ammunition-depot-in-kherson-says-odesa-official
I repeat my earlier question: what are the UN, USA, UK, EU, China, India, Brazil, Indonesia, Australia and NZ going to do to condemn and punish Russia for this? (I note and applaud Australia’s decision to act decisively to block Russia from constructing an embassy building close by our Parliament building, but that wasn’t expressly done to punish Russia for this war crime, so I am still waiting.)
Article Headline: McKenzie was aware of Van rumours.
“Nationals senator Bridget McKenzie says she did nothing to act on rumours of David Van’s bad behaviour because she did not have ‘first-hand information’.”
I’m not sure that excuse entirely passes the pub test.
https://www.theaustralian.com.au/subscribe/news/1/?sourceCode=TAWEB_WRE170_a&dest=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.theaustralian.com.au%2Fnation%2Fpolitics%2Fpolitics-now-linda-burney-addresses-voter-scepticism-on-indigenous-voice%2Flive-coverage%2F1f3cd28fa0b5faa957cce1a885a222fb&memtype=anonymous&mode=premium&v21=dynamic-groupb-test-noscore&V21spcbehaviour=append
Biden saying “God save the Queen”, confusing the All Blacks with the Black and Tans, building a train across the Indian Ocean.
Will he make it to the end of this term, let alone the next?
A large Russian ammunition depot in occupied Kherson has been destroyed by the Ukrainian Air Force:
“There was an explosion in the Henichesk district of temporarily occupied part of Kherson Oblast on the morning of 18 June, as reported by various media outlets and Petro Andriushchenko, the advisor to the mayor of Mariupol…
… The explosion occurred in the village of Rykove near Henichesk. A silo was hit, and, according to local residents, a large Russian ammunition storage point was also hit. Meanwhile, the media outlets have reported that the explosions are still ongoing.
Later, Commander of the Ukrainian Air Force Mykola Oleshchuk confirmed that a Russian ammunition storage point had been hit at Partyzany railway station in Rykove. He commended the pilots for their actions.”
https://www.pravda.com.ua/eng/news/2023/06/18/7407335/
Rykove is about 110km SE of the nearest point of Ukrainian-controlled territory, at Zmiyivka on the right bank of the Dnipro River. It is about 45km NE of the nearest point in Russian-occupied Crimea. The rail and road linking Melitopol with Crimea runs right through it.
I live in Kenmore. I hadn’t heard that the LNP-controlled Brisbane City Council and the Labor state government of Queensland were trying to roll out high-frequency bus services on every major road corridor for the western suburbs of Brisbane but the Greens were stopping that from happening. I suppose that every time Michael Berkman, a Queensland state MP, and Elizabeth Watson-Brown, a federal MP use their frequent newsletters, social media statements, and community events to advocate more public transport for this part of Brisbane and make detailed proposals about how to do it they are in fact harbouring NIMBY opposition to public transport. I guess that’s one possibility. Another is that you don’t know what you’re talking about.
Rachel Baxendale
@rachelbaxendale
·
46s
Roskam and Werner equal in Warrandyte Lib preselection. Special vote to see who is eliminated. Means di Cosmo is ahead. #springst
Nicole Werner was the candidate in Box Hill at the last election. Got spanked by Paul Hamer.
Roskam is out.
Good to see the IPA goon eliminated.
Maybe the Victorian Liberal Party are finally seeing the path to relevance is booting the IPA/Murdoch influence out of their politics.
Wishful thinking…
Oh dear, BS Fairman said ‘Kirksdale’ instead of Kirsdarke. I guess he should resign from his job tomorrow. Will he make it to the end of this week, let alone the next? 😐
No, I will resign now.
From what I am not sure as I am awaiting my next contract at the moment. 🙂
Socrates @ #467 Sunday, June 18th, 2023 – 4:20 pm
Soc,
Annika Wells obviously has been with her ideas for Aged Care facilities. I imagine Rose Jackson has as well. However, if you want to look them up they can be found in that hotbed of ‘Socialism, Communism, Fascism’ (copyright Donald Trump, hence, it makes no sense 😀 ), California. Which is every bit as Progressive as those countries you name. 🙂
A PLC old girl, on her christian journey. Just what they need, I’m not so sure.
https://www.plc.vic.edu.au/news-events/oc-nicole-werner-2008
“We recently welcomed OC Nicole Werner (2008) to Christian Union to talk about her faith journey, talking about how she began her life changing transformation to Christianity. Nicole has been a Youth Pastor and is now engaged in state politics. It was an inspiration to have her share her story with the girls.”
Roskam is out.
++++++
Gina the Hut will be LIVID!
B.S. Fairman @ #490 Sunday, June 18th, 2023 – 6:30 pm
You can’t accept it! Because you are obviously on the same faltering intellectual level as President Joe Biden. Well, at least according to the standards Oakeshott Country is setting. 😉
Who is di Cosmo?
Richard Willingham
@rwillingham
Nicole Werner has won liberal preselection for Warrandyte
@abcmelbourne
#springst
B.S. Fairman @ #496 Sunday, June 18th, 2023 – 6:36 pm
Because the Victorian Liberal Party needs more Moira Deemings. 😐
From last years ABC election profile:
“Nicole Ta-Ei Werner
Liberal
Werner is the daughter of working class Malaysian migrants who moved to Australia in 1987 to make a better life for their family. Werner was born and grew up in the local area and again lives in the street where she grew up. Werner has always worked in the community and not-for-profit sector and spent her early career as a youth worker and youth pastor, working with disadvantaged young people from diverse and multicultural backgrounds. She now works as the Business Development Manager for one of Australia’s largest foodbanks.”
She did get 8.9% swing against her last year. If they manage that again they are screwed.
B.S. Fairman says:
Sunday, June 18, 2023 at 6:36 pm
Richard Willingham
@rwillingham
Nicole Werner has won liberal preselection for Warrandyte
@abcmelbourne
#springst
+++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
Richard Willingham biding his time!?
Nicole Werner has won liberal preselection for Warrandyte
______________
Yet another god botherer to the Coalition benches! Will they EVER get the message?
“Yet another god botherer to the Coalition benches! Will they EVER get the message?”
honestly BK……. i really dont think so.
Its kinda like…oh! this hurts……..lets do it some more!!!
which i think says quite a lot about their unsuitability for being in govt……but maybe thats just me. 🙂