Miscellany: seat entitlements, electoral reforms, by-elections latest and more (open thread)

Winners in losers in the carve-up of House of Reps seats between the states, Gerard Rennick’s Senate preselection under challenge, latest by-election developments, and more.

Recent electoral developments at the federal level:

• The population statistics that will be used next month to calculate state and territory House of Representation seat entitlements have been published, and as Antony Green reports, they establish that New South Wales and Victoria will each lose a seat, putting them at 46 and 38 respectively; Western Australia will gain one, putting it at 16; and the others will remain unchanged at Queensland 30, South Australia 10, Tasmania five, the ACT three and the Northern Territory two. The vagaries of rounding mean the total size of the House will be down one to 150. Redistributions will duly be required in three states – Antony Green has a further post looking at the specifics in Western Australia, where the new seat seems likely to be in the eastern suburbs of Perth.

• Matthew Killoran of the Courier-Mail reports a view that right-wing Liberal National Party Senator Gerard Rennick will “narrowly see off” challenges to his third position on the Queensland Senate ticket from Nelson Savanh, who works with strategic communications firm Michelson Alexander and appears to be an ideological moderate, and Stuart Fraser, director of a private investment fund.

• Jamie Walker of The Australian reports speculation that Pauline Hanson will shortly retire from politics, with her Senate vacancy to be filled by her chief-of-staff, James Ashby, who first came to public attention when he brought sexual harassment allegations against Peter Slipper, then the Speaker and Ashby’s boss, in 2012. Hanson spoke to The Australian of her frustration at being sidelined by a Labor government that prefers to negotiate with Jacqui Lambie and David Pocock to pass contested legislation through the Senate.

• The Guardian has launched an Indigenous Voice poll tracker. Meanwhile, academic Murray Goot has things to say about Newspoll’s recent result and The Australian’s presentation of it.

• Paul Sakkal of the Age/Herald reports the Joint Standing Committee on Electoral Matters will shortly recommend donation and spending caps and bans on false information in political advertisements, which have the broad support of the government and the relevant minister, Special Minister of State Don Farrell. Labor’s new draft national platform says it will work towards reducing reliance on donations and move to an expanded public funding system, much of the impetus coming from Clive Palmer’s extravagant electoral spending. Donation caps are opposed by Climate 200 and the Australia Institute, which argue that donor-funded campaigns provide the only opportunity for new entrants to take on incumbents. Donation caps at state level of $6700 a year in New South Wales and $4000 in Victoria were seen as inhibiting teal independent efforts to replicate their successes at federal elections.

• This week’s federal voting intention numbers from Roy Morgan have Labor’s two-party lead out from 55.5-44.5 to 56-44, from primary votes of Labor 35%, Coalition 33.5% and Greens 13.0%.

State by-elections latest:

• The Victorian Liberals will choose their candidate for the Warrandyte by-election on Sunday. Rachel Baxendale of The Australian reports the outcome is “far from clear”, with 22-year-old law student Antonietta Di Cosmo di Cosmo reckoned as good a chance as any out of the field of nine candidates. Conservative allies of Deakin MP Michael Sukkar are reportedly split between former Institute of Public Affairs executive director John Roskam and former Pentecostal pastor Nicole Ta-Ei Werner, while the opposing factional claim is divided between KPMG director Sarah Overton, tech business founder Jason McClintock and former Matthew Guy staffer Jemma Townson. Meanwhile, The Age reports Labor MPs are pressing for the party to field a candidate. Confirmation of a date for the by-election is still a while off, with outgoing member Ryan Smith not to formally resign until July 7.

• In Western Australia, Josh Zimmerman of The West Australian reports Labor’s administrative committee has confirmed party staffer Magenta Marshall as its candidate to succeed Mark McGowan in Rockingham on July 29. Rather surprisingly, the Liberals have committed to field a candidate in a seat McGowan won in 2021 by 37.7%.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,896 comments on “Miscellany: seat entitlements, electoral reforms, by-elections latest and more (open thread)”

Comments Page 11 of 38
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  1. I remember Nicole Werner. Peta Credlin made a cooker speech at her campaign launch and she seems to have the usual right wing leanings.

    I also remember this picture of her at 5pm on election day last year when she realized that things weren’t going her way.

  2. Oh….and was interesting a post upthread about Stokers comments about the why’s and wherefores of her accusations about Van.

    From my read of what was posted it looks like the Libs are being “nimble”. Their attacks on the ALP / Gallagher over the Higgins matter having pretty much blown up in their faces they are pivoting to a portrayal of Dear Leader daS UberPotaoFurher as a caring, compassionate and decisive soul…….

    Wouldn’t surprise me to find out that Van is not a factional ally of his. 🙂

  5. Kirsdarke @ #504 Sunday, June 18th, 2023 – 6:48 pm

    I remember Nicole Werner. Peta Credlin made a cooker speech at her campaign launch and she seems to have the usual right wing leanings.

    I also remember this picture of her at 5pm on election day last year when she realized that things weren’t going her way.

    Wasn’t she part of God’s plan then? 😆

  6. She has lots of nous!

    https://www.skynews.com.au/australia-news/politics/the-voting-intention-of-those-in-box-hill-is-to-get-rid-of-daniel-andrews/video/84c5e4db53e1883ad008056819113041

    The voting intention of those in Box Hill is to ‘get rid of Daniel Andrews’
    November 26, 2022 – 10:00AM

    Liberal candidate for Box Hill Nicole Ta-Ei Werner says the voting intention of people in Box Hill is to “get rid of Daniel Andrews”.

    Ms Ta-Ei Werner said the party is seeing a “real mood for change” in Box Hill.

    “It has been really, really positive towards us,” she told Sky News Australia.

    “People are talking about primarily the cost of living being explosive.

    “People are wanting to see change, people are voting for change, I’m seeing Labor voters come up to us every single day who say to us that they’re lifetime Labor voters that will never vote Labor again because they’re sick and tired of Daniel Andrews and his government.”

    Result:
    Candidate Party Votes after distribution % votes
    WERNER, Nicole Ta-Ei Liberal 18973 42.77%
    HAMER, Paul Australian Labor Party 25383 57.23%

  7. C@tmommasays:
    Sunday, June 18, 2023 at 6:49 pm
    Mexicanbeemer @ #498 Sunday, June 18th, 2023 – 6:38 pm

    The Liberals should find Sarah Overton a seat because her background would play well with professional women that they need to win back.

    And the report about the election loss of 2022 showed that the Liberals lost Professional Women big time!
    —————————-
    That’s why they lost but maybe one day they might wise up and run those sort of experienced professional women in heartland seats.

  10. “She has lots of nous!”

    Or she knows where skeletons are stored, and who has the catalog. 🙂

    Still, i reckon that if you are interested in the interplay or religion and politics in our elections, the by election for Scooty Mossiscums seat will be one to watch. 🙂 Unless of course the Libs do something rational like quietly but definitively sort his replacement before he announces his retirement to glory.

  12. I actually deal with a lot of professional women who work for Central Coast Council as part of my responsibilities as a member of the board of the Status of Women Advisory Group, and can I just say that they are whip smart, kind and compassionate. And just the sort of women who have nothing in common with today’s Liberal Party.

  13. Sydney Planning….

    SMH…
    On a bright winter’s afternoon, Sydney’s Olympic legacy is a ghost town.

    Sydney Olympic Park has more than 5000 residents, as well as thousands of workers employed by companies and government agencies such as the NSW Rural Fire Service and NSW Ambulance who are located in the precinct.

    But there are few customers in cafes, streets are largely empty and the railway station is almost deserted……
    Now the Minns Labor government has taken up the baton, with Planning Minister Paul Scully detailing the latest plan to turn Sydney Olympic Park into a vibrant high-density suburb at the Greater Parramatta and Olympic Park conference this month.

    So Minns & Scully want to right the wrong of the half arsed shallow planning done by Labor for the 2000 Olympics.
    It’s ONLY taken 25 years!!.. Brilliant

  14. Anthony Green’s view re Warrandyte:
    “Battin lost to John Pesutto by a margin reported as one vote. Smith subsequently voted against both motions by John Pesutto to expel outspoken MLC Moira Deeming. In a sign of continuing tensions, Smith released his resignation press release without first informing Pesutto.

    With this background, it is hard not to see Smith’s departure and the by-election through the prism of Liberal Party internal tensions. It would be a potential disaster for the Liberal Party if the candidate pre-selection ballot in Warrandyte became a proxy war over the future of the party and John Pesutto’s leadership. If an internal squabble erupts, it could tempt Labor into contesting the by-election.”

  15. ”
    B.S. Fairmansays:
    Sunday, June 18, 2023 at 6:38 pm
    From last years ABC election profile:
    “Nicole Ta-Ei Werner
    Liberal

    Werner is the daughter of working class Malaysian migrants who moved to Australia in 1987 to make a better life for their family. Werner was born and grew up in the local area and again lives in the street where she grew up. Werner has always worked in the community and not-for-profit sector and spent her early career as a youth worker and youth pastor, working with disadvantaged young people from diverse and multicultural backgrounds. She now works as the Business Development Manager for one of Australia’s largest foodbanks.”

    She did get 8.9% swing against her last year. If they manage that again they are screwed.
    ”

    Victorian Labor should contest the by-election.

  16. Who would be a liberal preselector in Warrendyte?
    Your choice is right wing Christian, an IPA hack and a 22yo law student.
    What was the informal vote?

  17. B.S. Fairman:

    Sunday, June 18, 2023 at 4:15 pm

    [‘I don’t know why Labor would sit out the Warrandyte by-election if there is a 22 year old running…’]

    Nor do I. If the Tories select a 22-year-old, Labor could pinch a version of Reagan’s classic line; after all, few would recall it.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fJhCjMfRndk

    ____________________________________

    Van’s taking a week’s leave; his only feasible option is to return to his former public relations business. And that Dutton has acted so resolutely has little to do with the perception that women dislike him, some minded of their no-good husband, failing to be conned by his dulcet tones.
    ____________________________________

    A number of prominent authors, such as Hemingway & the recently deceased Cormac McCarthy, were for short sentences & agin long paras and in particular, avoiding the semi-colon.

  18. C@T
    I actually deal with a lot of professional women who work for Central Coast Council as part of my responsibilities as a member of the board of the Status of Women Advisory Group, and can I just say that they are whip smart, kind and compassionate. And just the sort of women who have nothing in common with today’s Liberal Party.
    ——————————————–
    Being kind and compassionate doesn’t tell us how someone votes for most of us are seen as kind and compassionate by someone.

  20. It might be in the ALP’s interest to let the Liberals win and add another hard right type but there’s a danger that at some point the Liberals will return to government.

  21. Mexicanbeemer @ #518 Sunday, June 18th, 2023 – 7:11 pm

    C@T
    I actually deal with a lot of professional women who work for Central Coast Council as part of my responsibilities as a member of the board of the Status of Women Advisory Group, and can I just say that they are whip smart, kind and compassionate. And just the sort of women who have nothing in common with today’s Liberal Party.
    ——————————————–
    Being kind and compassionate doesn’t tell us how someone votes for most of us are seen as kind and compassionate by someone.

    Okay, so let me broaden that out a bit. For example, they are presently doing a study in concert with, Transport for NSW to devise methods of keeping women safe after they get off, and before they get on, public transport, early in the morning and late at night. They took on the brief because they care about the safety of women and the way they are dealing with it involves new and innovative solutions. I’m sorry, but I haven’t seen Liberal Women thinking like that in forever. Though I must say, I’m mainly exposed to the ones in parliament. 🙂

  22. Rex Douglassays:
    Sunday, June 18, 2023 at 6:55 pm
    For anyone interested in the treaty process in Victoria.
    ________________
    I played footy with Mookeye Bell in the Southwest District Football League many years ago. He would always protect us young fellas on the field. All the Bells did. Mookeye, Swisher and Bushrat they could all handle themselves.
    Mookeye wasn’t a bad cricketer either.

  23. If Labor is to run in Warrandyte they are a fair chance. Some of Warrandyte is a different area than Box Hill, but the Doncaster East part is like Box Hill in many respects. It is 24% Chinese compared to Box Hills 28%. It was not a seat Labor put any effort into last year, so it had a very small swing towards the Liberals on the TPP.

    If Labor doesn’t run, there is a chance that a decent independent with some funds would give the Liberals a scare. If it is just the Greens as the many opponent, then it will be a cake walk for the Libs.

  24. C@t
    Okay, so let me broaden that out a bit. For example, they are presently doing a study in concert with, Transport for NSW to devise methods of keeping women safe after they get off, and before they get on, public transport, early in the morning and late at night. They took on the brief because they care about the safety of women and the way they are dealing with it involves new and innovative solutions. I’m sorry, but I haven’t seen Liberal Women thinking like that in forever. Though I must say, I’m mainly exposed to the ones in parliament.
    ————————-
    For some strange reason Liberal women act differently in parliament then outside of it because woman like Mary Wooldrige is the leading advocate on gender pay.

  25. Tassie needs a big injection of migrants to justify its 5 seats. At least 50% of the refugee intake could settle there.

  26. TaylorMade
    Do you believe that Liberals will win Warrandyte by-election with Nicole Werner winning the pre-selection?

  27. wasnt van one of the few liberals who spoke up in faver of voice how ever it seems he could join one nation as pauline hanson tried to defend him not sure who suported him he did not have any position in the liberal partyreported until 2016 and is in dutton is so cearing he was singled out along with porter for special thanks in his validictory speech forthe full backing of him overthe aligations plus dutton regularly attacked higgins so cash new for 3 years 2020 and she did nothing about Van

  28. ”
    MadHousesays:
    Sunday, June 18, 2023 at 7:27 pm
    Tassie needs a big injection of migrants to justify its 5 seats. At least 50% of the refugee intake could settle there
    ”

    Although I don’t agree with forceful settlement of migrants but I generally agree with the posts.

  29. what is the worst how ever is the use of britney higgins private phone records to triy and shame her a regular tacdick in sexual asult claim the woman is at fault and is luying for example the well known sexists barrey osulivan and mcdonald when hanson yung finally had enough of there conduct the then then greens leader richard dinataile called them pigs how ever in stead ofdealing with mcdonald and and osulivan then president scott ryan thelike speaker in lower house in stead cicked out dinataile for 24 hours with no punishment for the two lnp all because he would not withdraw

  30. Vens ays:
    Sunday, June 18, 2023 at 7:28 pm
    TaylorMade
    Do you believe that Liberals will win Warrandyte by-election with Nicole Werner winning the pre-selection?

    ++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
    Only after a warm -up with Mookeye Bell?

  31. then again the pompis brandis claimed in his validictory mcdonalds bullying was okay becausehe forced the well respected justin gleason to resign brandis was so good as a lawyer he had to appoint him selfas both a sc and qc the qld bar would not them selves

  33. Warrandyte was the hunting ground of one of the few priests which the Catholic Church admitted was a paedophile , Peter Chalk

  34. Aaron – David Van is not running off to join One Nation. As an Independent Senator he actually gets an extra staffer. Let’s hope he does not sexually harass them as well.

  36. Sceptic @ #515 Sunday, June 18th, 2023 – 7:05 pm

    Sydney Planning….

    SMH…
    On a bright winter’s afternoon, Sydney’s Olympic legacy is a ghost town.

    Sydney Olympic Park has more than 5000 residents, as well as thousands of workers employed by companies and government agencies such as the NSW Rural Fire Service and NSW Ambulance who are located in the precinct.

    But there are few customers in cafes, streets are largely empty and the railway station is almost deserted……
    Now the Minns Labor government has taken up the baton, with Planning Minister Paul Scully detailing the latest plan to turn Sydney Olympic Park into a vibrant high-density suburb at the Greater Parramatta and Olympic Park conference this month.

    So Minns & Scully want to right the wrong of the half arsed shallow planning done by Labor for the 2000 Olympics.
    It’s ONLY taken 25 years!!.. Brilliant

    The depiction of the nature of the area in this article is simply wrong. There are a stack of things to do in the area. Sydney Bicentennial Park is a terrific open space, with mangrove boardwalks, and lots of bike tracks and bird-watching hides. The Olympic aquatic centre always has plenty of custom, there is beautiful untouched bushland adjacent to The Armory, where you can stroll and try to catch sight of the sea eagles. . The shopping centres at Wentworth Point and at Rhodes station are buzzing. The Olympic Village , just to the west, has become the suburb of Newington. The Olympic Park station is located to transport people to sports events, concerts and The Easter Show, not as a commuter hub. It is surrounded by hotels and office buildings. There are on-site cafes in the only two high rise accommodation towers in the immediate area (Opal, anyone).

    The author of the article is spouting through their posterior. Wentworth Point is the residential suburb of the Olympic site, less than 1 km walk from the Olympic station. Wentworth Point and Rhodes are amongst the highest density communities in the whole of Sydney. Commuters use Rhodes station, because it has a much more frequent service, and is on a main line with rapid access to the whole Sydney network, rather than being at the end of a dead-end branch line. There is a continuous shuttle bus over a dedicated bridge to Rhodes station for commuters from the Olympic site area and Wentworth Point.

    This is high density:

    Also, take a look at this.
    https://www.google.com/maps/place/Wentworth+Point+NSW+2127/@-33.832157,151.0673463,1494m/data=!3m1!1e3!4m16!1m9!3m8!1s0x6b12a4ee5211309b:0x8f0d9ac6971b0f7d!2sWentworth+Point+NSW+2127!3b1!8m2!3d-33.8290199!4d151.0751998!10e5!16s%2Fm%2F0809k_8!3m5!1s0x6b12a4ee5211309b:0x8f0d9ac6971b0f7d!8m2!3d-33.8290199!4d151.0751998!16s%2Fm%2F0809k_8?entry=ttu

  37. When the Catholic Church pays compensation to victims of child sexual abuse it kind of admits it’s perpetrators were paedophiles.
    There are many of those.

  38. “Reuters is reporting that Ukrainian forces have taken control of the settlement of Piatykhatky on the Zaporizhzhia battle front, according to a Russian-installed official.”

    https://www.theguardian.com/world/live/2023/jun/18/russia-ukraine-war-live-ukraine-destroys-russian-ammunition-depot-in-kherson-says-odesa-official

    This means that today, Ukraine advanced south in the direction of Melitopol a further 1.7-1.8 km across a 2.0-2.1 km wide front. This is in comparison to the indicated area of Ukrainian control (in blue) on https://deepstatemap.live/en#11/47.5143/35.4543 as of today.

  39. …part of the Liberal problem is how they use women Parliamentarians.

    For example, one female Lib MP of European heritage used to complain that she was only called on to speak if it was to either diss people from her ethnic background or diss women (particularly young women).

    If she refused, she would have been seen as not a team player.

  40. Warrandyte is thought of as being a hot bed of religious fundamentalism but in reality it is only slightly more religious than the state in general. It is 44.5% Christian compare to 40.9% for the State. Higher in Baptists, Eastern Orthodox, Pentecostals, Presbyterians…. but nothing huge in terms of whole numbers…. slightly less Catholic (18.1% vs 20.5%).

    Fewer Hindus and Jews but more Buddhists.

    More people also declare to be secular (41%) than Victoria as a whole (39.3%) at the census.

    Not sure how a fundie will go down.

  41. Apparently the Warrandyte final vote was 55 for Werner and 50 for Di Cosmo, so a close thing. Most of Roskam’s votes went to Werner when he was eliminated from the vote.

  42. I sometimes think whether that those who post incessantly on this site should be restricted. And I refuse to refer to Cat. Tea.

  43. Re Sydney planning and Olympic Park…

    The Minns government has committed to stage two of the Parramatta light rail which will extend to Olympic Park. The Parramatta – City metro will also stop at olympic Park. There’s little doubt that there will be a lot of housing and other development in this suburb and surrounds.

  44. given marise payne said she championed more woman in the liberal party it is disapointing to see her attack gallacher are liberals saying anya woman is not to be believed in sexual asultas there triying with the higgins was realy a labor plant well if so whiy was she a liberal stafferwould the liberal woman like payne sent out to bring down other woman be comfortable about it or are they false som one with no conshints or compation like michaelia cash would not have any problim

  45. But some liberals who might be fairley modderit the most suprisiing example is Sarah henderson who suported gay maridge and wrote a article in 2004 critical of abot over abortion turn in to a member of the hard right defend Deamings anti trans gendercampaign she has not dun any thing of note as shadow education minister i dont think she has even talked about educationpayne mis handild the woman march but considered her and bermingham as reasonably deasent people could tell bermingham was uncomfortable with morisons anti china retorick like attacks on marles how ever with his fence sitting on voice bermingham seems a oppotunist like the moderit to hard right turn of henderson

  46. what happind to so called champion for woman nichole flindt who tried to use one guys arest to bring down penney wong and her aponent in boothby who had nothing to do with any abuse who is now a state mp where is she defending higgins from being called a luyer turns out Renyolds discription of higgins she was forced to publickly apoligize seems to be her real views i dont thing murdock was sory about phone hacking just that his papper got called so he protendid that he was sorry

  47. remember during his apoligy morrison apoligized to higgins maybi he mis lead the parliament and should resign

  48. This may be slightly old news but 4 top US Banks wrote off about US $3.4 billion in bad loans in first quarter of 2023

    https://finance-yahoo-com.cdn.ampproject.org/v/s/finance.yahoo.com/amphtml/news/wall-streets-top-4-banks-235200692.html?amp_gsa=1&amp_js_v=a9&usqp=mq331AQIUAKwASCAAgM%3D#amp_tf=From%20%251%24s&aoh=16870841371744&csi=1&referrer=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.google.com&ampshare=https%3A%2F%2Ffinance.yahoo.com%2Fnews%2Fwall-streets-top-4-banks-235200692.html

  49. Somebody laughed at my summary of the WA Govt.

    And to be fair I did omit to even mention their greatest achievements.

    They have fought hard and constantly too keep real wages falling as fast as they can. Particularly those greedy nurses, well they should really be working a second job if they want to eat.

    They have worked very hard doing everything they can to keep WA’s billionaires involved in the Govt of WA and as happy as arse kissing can get them.

    They’ve balanced the budget and done all the trickle down things. This has been their primary focus and if you wanted a far right conservative Govt following the neocon path to from the far right to even more right, they have been an almost perfect govt.

    Oh don’t forget the Victorian conditions in the State’s juvenile injustice system, and the ignorance and cruelty of the then Premier.

    So I definitely omitted any reference to the one area the WA Govt has excelled.

  50. I wasn’t at all fussed if Labor ran a candidate in Warrandyte, but after the Tories s elected that dud, not only do I think Labor should run, I also think they would be a big chance to win. Labor should really try to get a a big name to run for them.

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