Miscellany: seat entitlements, electoral reforms, by-elections latest and more (open thread)

Winners in losers in the carve-up of House of Reps seats between the states, Gerard Rennick’s Senate preselection under challenge, latest by-election developments, and more.

Recent electoral developments at the federal level:

• The population statistics that will be used next month to calculate state and territory House of Representation seat entitlements have been published, and as Antony Green reports, they establish that New South Wales and Victoria will each lose a seat, putting them at 46 and 38 respectively; Western Australia will gain one, putting it at 16; and the others will remain unchanged at Queensland 30, South Australia 10, Tasmania five, the ACT three and the Northern Territory two. The vagaries of rounding mean the total size of the House will be down one to 150. Redistributions will duly be required in three states – Antony Green has a further post looking at the specifics in Western Australia, where the new seat seems likely to be in the eastern suburbs of Perth.

Matthew Killoran of the Courier-Mail reports a view that right-wing Liberal National Party Senator Gerard Rennick will “narrowly see off” challenges to his third position on the Queensland Senate ticket from Nelson Savanh, who works with strategic communications firm Michelson Alexander and appears to be an ideological moderate, and Stuart Fraser, director of a private investment fund.

Jamie Walker of The Australian reports speculation that Pauline Hanson will shortly retire from politics, with her Senate vacancy to be filled by her chief-of-staff, James Ashby, who first came to public attention when he brought sexual harassment allegations against Peter Slipper, then the Speaker and Ashby’s boss, in 2012. Hanson spoke to The Australian of her frustration at being sidelined by a Labor government that prefers to negotiate with Jacqui Lambie and David Pocock to pass contested legislation through the Senate.

• The Guardian has launched an Indigenous Voice poll tracker. Meanwhile, academic Murray Goot has things to say about Newspoll’s recent result and The Australian’s presentation of it.

Paul Sakkal of the Age/Herald reports the Joint Standing Committee on Electoral Matters will shortly recommend donation and spending caps and bans on false information in political advertisements, which have the broad support of the government and the relevant minister, Special Minister of State Don Farrell. Labor’s new draft national platform says it will work towards reducing reliance on donations and move to an expanded public funding system, much of the impetus coming from Clive Palmer’s extravagant electoral spending. Donation caps are opposed by Climate 200 and the Australia Institute, which argue that donor-funded campaigns provide the only opportunity for new entrants to take on incumbents. Donation caps at state level of $6700 a year in New South Wales and $4000 in Victoria were seen as inhibiting teal independent efforts to replicate their successes at federal elections.

• This week’s federal voting intention numbers from Roy Morgan have Labor’s two-party lead out from 55.5-44.5 to 56-44, from primary votes of Labor 35%, Coalition 33.5% and Greens 13.0%.

State by-elections latest:

• The Victorian Liberals will choose their candidate for the Warrandyte by-election on Sunday. Rachel Baxendale of The Australian reports the outcome is “far from clear”, with 22-year-old law student Antonietta Di Cosmo di Cosmo reckoned as good a chance as any out of the field of nine candidates. Conservative allies of Deakin MP Michael Sukkar are reportedly split between former Institute of Public Affairs executive director John Roskam and former Pentecostal pastor Nicole Ta-Ei Werner, while the opposing factional claim is divided between KPMG director Sarah Overton, tech business founder Jason McClintock and former Matthew Guy staffer Jemma Townson. Meanwhile, The Age reports Labor MPs are pressing for the party to field a candidate. Confirmation of a date for the by-election is still a while off, with outgoing member Ryan Smith not to formally resign until July 7.

• In Western Australia, Josh Zimmerman of The West Australian reports Labor’s administrative committee has confirmed party staffer Magenta Marshall as its candidate to succeed Mark McGowan in Rockingham on July 29. Rather surprisingly, the Liberals have committed to field a candidate in a seat McGowan won in 2021 by 37.7%.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,896 comments on “Miscellany: seat entitlements, electoral reforms, by-elections latest and more (open thread)”

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  1. Sweet jebus. What utter crap!
    De Santis of all people. The anti woke king!

    Jesus was as woke a you could get for someone who lived 2000 years ago.

    The idiocy never ends.

    ————

    NEW: In a television interview with Christian Broadcast News, Florida Governor Ron DeSantis (R), suggested he would have liked to have been one of Jesus’s 12 disciples. @Fla_Pol,@AGGancarski.

  2. Victoria says:
    Saturday, June 17, 2023 at 9:20 am

    De Santis playing dress-ups/make-believe. A lot of politics, and its support act, religion, is just that: cos-play for adults. Such nonsense. Imbecilic.

  3. BK / Venn

    “ When will the Liberals break free from the repeated cycle of sexual abuse allegations?”, wonders Paul Kelly in his article which is largely an attempt to justify his masthead’s role in the Higgins saga.”
    https://www.theaustralian.com.au/inquirer/fight-for-the-moral-high-ground-as-brittany-higgins-lidia-thorpe-amanda-stoker-sexual-abuse-claims-reverberate-around-canberra/news-story/14c9dcd20fdebb504fbfc91e5c36c4e4?amp

    Rather than asking when will the Liberals break free of a cycle of sexual abuse allegations, why doesn’t Paul Kelly ask the real question?

    When will the Liberal party break free of the cycle of continually preselecting flawed, misogynistic men as candidates, who are likely to abuse power imbalances against women while in office?


  4. Are Tory MPs as deluded as Boris Johnson? It’s a tough act to follow, but they’re doing their best, writes Marina Hyde.
    https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2023/jun/16/tory-mps-boris-johnson-partygate-report

    From the article: “Johnson didn’t just lie – he lied about the lies he had told, and he lied about the lies that he had not yet told, but had every intention of telling. ”

    “The parliamentary Conservative party in the majority showed appalling judgment on Johnson, despite mountains of indications it would turn out badly. It failed to understand not simply the vital flaws in Johnson’s criminally overhyped “oven-ready deal”, but human character itself.

    In the above paragraph replace the word “Johnson” with “Morrison” or Trump, you will mirror politics in Australia and USA

  5. NEW: In a television interview with Christian Broadcast News, Florida Governor Ron DeSantis (R), suggested he would have liked to have been one of Jesus’s 12 disciples. @Fla_Pol,@AGGancarski.

    11 of them were martyred – some in very unpleasant ways.
    Don’t think that is something I would aspire to.

  6. “Florida Governor Ron DeSantis (R), suggested he would have liked to have been one of Jesus’s 12 disciples.”

    Judas leaving has left a job opening.

  7. Terrific news about the 2 billion for public housing. I live in Max CMs electorate and people I know who voted for him think he should agree to the government’s housing fund plan. I think its time that the perpetual protest that doubles as green policy ended, as well as the schoolboy tactics. I doubt we will ever achieve the level of perfection the greens demand. I also agree with Cat ,hope some large chunk of money is dedicated to projects in Max’s seat.

  8. UK Cartoons:
    Ben Jennings on #BorisJohnson #PrivilegesCommitteeReport #BorisTheLiar #Partygate #ToryLiars

    Peter Brookes on #BorisJohnson #PrivilegesCommitteeReport #BorisTheLiar #Partygate #ToryLiars

    Brian Adcock on #BorisJohnson #PrivilegesCommitteeReport #BorisTheLiar #Partygate #ToryLiars

    Nicola Jennings on a long knight with bawling #BorisJohnson #PrivilegesCommitteeReport #BorisTheLiar #Partygate #ToryLiars

    Andy Davey: Time to reflect on that glorious career with his buses and his paint, perhaps #BorisJohnson #PrivilegesCommitteeReport #BorisTheLiar

    Matt on #Conservatives #PrivilegesCommitteeReport #Partygate

    Kal on #Putin #PutinWarCrimes

    Graeme Bandeira: BABIES ON BOARD! It’s all about the peerages! #NadineDorries and #NigelAdams throw their toys out of the pram #BorisJohnson

    Christian Adams on #BorisJohnson #PrivilegesCommitteeReport #ToryCivilWar #Ashes2023

    Peter Brookes on #BorisJohnson #PrivilegesCommitteeReport #ToryCivilWar #Partygate

    Martyn Turner on #BorisJohnson #PrivilegesCommitteeReport #BorisTheLiar #Putin

    Matt on #BorisJohnson #PrivilegesCommitteeReport #Partygate

    Finally, Dave Brown’s #RoguesGallery cartoon, after #GeorgesSeurat #BorisJohnson #RishiSunak #PrivilegesCommitteeReport #BorisTheLiar #ToryCivilWar #ToriesUnfitToGovern

    The original Georges Seurat – The Stone Breaker:


  9. Oakeshott Countrysays:
    Saturday, June 17, 2023 at 9:35 am
    NEW: In a television interview with Christian Broadcast News, Florida Governor Ron DeSantis (R), suggested he would have liked to have been one of Jesus’s 12 disciples. @Fla_Pol,@AGGancarski.

    11 of them were martyred – some in very unpleasant ways.
    Don’t think that is something I would aspire to.

    He wants to be the 12th one that is not martyred. 🙂

  10. Donald Trump is bleeding lawyers as quickly as he needs them, with Jim Trusty—once representing the former president in both his criminal documents case and a defamation lawsuit—motioning to end his relationship with Trump altogether on Friday.
    Trusty wrote in a motion that he was dropping Trump as a client in his defamation suit against CNN because of “irreconcilable differences” that made it impossible for him to “effectively and properly represent” him. “The defamation lawsuit against CNN is entering a new phase, as more irrefutable facts are revealed,” a spokesperson for Trump told Politico. “We thank Mr. Trusty for his work on this case and wish him all the best.”
    Trump is seeking $475 million in damages from CNN, claiming the network conducted a “campaign of dissuasion in the form of libel and slander.” CNN has asked the judge for the case to be dismissed.

  11. Victoria @ #46 Saturday, June 17th, 2023 – 9:11 am

    Unsurprisingly it has been wall to wall Trump this week in USA political news.

    But seriously. What about Rudy Guiliani, Steve Bannon, Michael Flynn, Roger Stone etc. They are the main players around Trump who facilitated Jan 6, bullshit Hunter Biden Laptop, and Qanon.

    Trump was ever thus the useful narcissistic evil idiot.

    When are they going to face justice? Sheesh….

    There’s hope. https://twitter.com/annabower/status/1669794252828602369

    Reported at Palmer Reports, with speculation.
    https://www.palmerreport.com/analysis/jack-smiths-files-for-protective-order-against-donald-trump-reveals-classified-documents-investigation-is-ongoing/50703/

  12. Retirees pulled $14 billion out of the superannuation system last quarter as they looked to bolster their regular payments to cover living costs or pay down debt as interest rates keep climbing.
    This was almost 21 per cent more than the previous year, data from the prudential regulator revealed, as funds report increased member inquiries about inflation and whether their super savings will last.
    “That’s a signal for us that the economic conditions are kicking in and members are becoming more concerned about the current situation,” said Shawn Blackmore, chief officer of retirement at the country’s largest super fund, the $274 billion AustralianSuper. “We’re seeing in times of economic uncertainty – COVID-19 and now – that lump sum withdrawals will change.”
    There was “a noticeable trend” of retirees taking more lump sum payments at Aware Super too, said Jacki Ellis, the $150 billion fund’s head of retirement. The funds were largely being used to deal with the spiralling cost-of-living crisis and paying down debt. According to a survey by National Seniors Australia of nearly 6000 people over the age of 50, 80 per cent of older Australians said that cost-of-living increases had hit their lifestyles, and 20 per cent reported a major impact.
    More than 90 per cent were also concerned about how they would keep up with the rising cost of living in the longer term, especially regarding their health, energy and grocery expenses. Though Commonwealth Bank spending data showed over-65s were splurging on airline tickets, holiday accommodation and cruises as high interest rates boosted their incomes, the funds said those making lump sum withdrawals were generally facing cost-of-living pressures. For example, around a quarter of those withdrawing lump sums at Aware Super cited the need to meet everyday expenses, and AustralianSuper was getting more inquiries about accessing one-off payments for living costs.
    https://www.afr.com/property/commercial/retirees-tap-super-for-one-off-help-with-soaring-living-costs-debt-20230615-p5dgpn

  13. Saturday Paper 17/06
    Prime Minister Anthony Albanese backed Gallagher. “Senator Gallagher has more integrity than some of the people who are pursuing these issues. I stand by Senator Gallagher. She has my absolute confidence, both as Finance minister, as minister for the status of women, but also as a human being who cares deeply about women in particular.”
    _____________________
    She is also a workplace bully and now a proven liar.
    Australians got a good look at Gallagher this week.
    Not a very nice person at all.

  14. BK @ #14 Saturday, June 17th, 2023 – 7:38 am

    So this is it: the open casket of conservative politics, a coffin of thought in which John Howard and Tony Abbott are nestled alongside Canadian psychologist Jordan Peterson. The group calls itself the Alliance for Responsible Citizenship. It is a global collective of anti-globalists, funded by a Dubai-based investment vehicle and a British billionaire, reveals the editorial in The Saturday Paper.
    https://www.thesaturdaypaper.com.au/opinion/editorial/2023/06/17/coffin-thought

    Great. Yet another phase of Climate Catastrophe Denial. God is apparently a denier …

    “A century and a half or more of corrosive cultural criticism has undermined our understanding of and faith in the traditions necessary to unite and guide us,” he writes. “In the midst of this existential chaos, the false idol of apocalyptic ideology inevitably beckons.”

    Peterson writes of the need for cheap energy and of the evils of technology. He calls for abundance to be enjoyed by men and women made in the image of God.

    Just a list of the names behind it is enough to make you want to throw up …

    John Howard
    Tony Abbott
    John Anderson
    Andrew Hastie
    Bjørn Lomborg

    The funniest bit, of course, is the part about the “need for cheap energy and of the evils of technology”. They are clearly getting panicked by the fact that the cheapest form of new energy depends on “teh evil technology” rather than good old god-given fossil fuels.

    “If God had wanted us to harness sunlight for energy he would have given us … oh, wait … “


  15. Taylormade says:
    Saturday, June 17, 2023 at 9:57 am

    She is also a workplace bully and now a proven liar.
    Australians got a good look at Gallagher this week.
    Not a very nice person at all.

    You think.
    She came across as very competent women. The same cannot be said for the Liberal women as a collection.

  16. “Player Onesays:
    Saturday, June 17, 2023 at 10:14 am
    BK @ #14 Saturday, June 17th, 2023 – 7:38 am

    So this is it: the open casket of conservative politics, a coffin of thought in which John Howard and Tony Abbott are nestled alongside Canadian psychologist Jordan Peterson. The group calls itself the Alliance for Responsible Citizenship. It is a global collective of anti-globalists, funded by a Dubai-based investment vehicle and a British billionaire, reveals the editorial in The Saturday Paper.
    https://www.thesaturdaypaper.com.au/opinion/editorial/2023/06/17/coffin-thought

    Great. Yet another phase of Climate Catastrophe Denial. God is apparently a denier

    https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2023/6/16/2175850/-Weird-El-Ni-o-Heating-N-Atlantic-to-Record-Highs-Extreme-Atlantic-Hurricane-Season-Ahead

  17. Taylormade
    Australians got a good look at Gallagher this week.
    Not a very nice person at all.

    When you say “Australians” do not like her, I think you mean The Australian. Not the same thing at all.

  18. Taylormade the seagull has dropped another deposit.

    It was actually an own goal by the Libs, losing a senator and all that. What is worse, the wrong doing by Van is historical, they knew and did nothing.

  19. Saturday Paper 17/06
    Prime Minister Anthony Albanese backed Gallagher. “Senator Gallagher has more integrity than some of the people who are pursuing these issues.”

    “……. than SOME of the people who are pursuing these issues.”

    Is this an example of condemnation by faint praise?

    Albo is saying she also has less integrity than some of the people.

    Is her integrity sort of middling?

  20. Rikali @ #74 Saturday, June 17th, 2023 – 10:23 am

    Saturday Paper 17/06
    Prime Minister Anthony Albanese backed Gallagher. “Senator Gallagher has more integrity than some of the people who are pursuing these issues.”

    “……. than SOME of the people who are pursuing these issues.”

    Is this an example of condemnation by faint praise?

    Albo is saying she also has less integrity than some of the people.

    Is her integrity sort of middling?

    You could also choose to interpret this as Albanese’s condemning only SOME of the people “pursuing these issues”.

  21. The real bullies are the Liberal Women who have pursued Katy Gallagher this week with zero concern for victims of sexual abuse that they will have triggered. First among them, Brittany Higgins. Allegedly.

    All for a political get square.

  22. Victoria at 9.04 says :
    Meanwhile I have been observing property prices in Melbourne town since the interest rate rises, and lo and behold property prices have steadily increased. It is baffling.
    ………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………….
    One of the mysteries of the universe !

  23. “ The problem is not women. The problem is the Liberal Party as a whole. As an assembly of cynics, Pentecostals and Catholic ultras, they are incurably reactionary. Their beliefs, their polemics and their behaviours are inherently archaic, phobic and exploitative. Nothing better illustrates this than their current attempts to exploit Higgins. They are the scum of political life.”

    A decrepit 80 year old marketing scam of The Establishment perpetrating generational fraud after generational frauds on The Lucky Country.

  24. In his post above Taylormade demonstrates the mindset of the Liberal Party. He thinks he represents the way Australians think but really makes the mistake of believing he is a typical Aussie.

    There is no typical Australian and Australians look and think less and less like him every day.

    Oh, and absolutely no empathy for any woman, not even Cash or Ley because …. women, you know!

  25. Australians will be promised thousands of new homes under a surprise federal move to spend $2 billion?

    Won’t do a thing for house prices until negative gearers cannot use the equity in the properties they own
    to purchase MORE properties.
    That’s the key !.

  26. Andrew_Earlwood @ #79 Saturday, June 17th, 2023 – 10:54 am

    “ The problem is not women. The problem is the Liberal Party as a whole. As an assembly of cynics, Pentecostals and Catholic ultras, they are incurably reactionary. Their beliefs, their polemics and their behaviours are inherently archaic, phobic and exploitative. Nothing better illustrates this than their current attempts to exploit Higgins. They are the scum of political life.”

    A decrepit 80 year old marketing scam of The Establishment perpetrating generational fraud after generational frauds on The Lucky Country.

    Riddle me this, What is the point of the Liberal Party?

  27. GrannyAnny says:
    Saturday, June 17, 2023 at 10:23 am

    It was actually an own goal by the Libs, losing a senator and all that. What is worse, the wrong doing by Van is historical, they knew and did nothing.
    …………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………
    98.6 says :
    I think you’re being a bit hard on the Libs, they made him move offices.
    Its not like they could have moved him to another parish.

  28. Andrew_Earlwood @ #79 Saturday, June 17th, 2023 – 10:54 am

    “ The problem is not women. The problem is the Liberal Party as a whole. As an assembly of cynics, Pentecostals and Catholic ultras, they are incurably reactionary. Their beliefs, their polemics and their behaviours are inherently archaic, phobic and exploitative. Nothing better illustrates this than their current attempts to exploit Higgins. They are the scum of political life.”

    A decrepit 80 year old marketing scam of The Establishment perpetrating generational fraud after generational frauds on The Lucky Country.

    Or, as Mundo likes to say, What is the point of the Liberal Party?

  29. TPOF says:
    Saturday, June 17, 2023 at 10:58 am
    In his post above Taylormade demonstrates the mindset of the Liberal Party. He thinks he represents the way Australians think but really makes the mistake of believing he is a typical Aussie.

    There is no typical Australian and Australians look and think less and less like him every day.

    +++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
    Gold!
    And didn’t even require a metal detector or a long drive and a stagger around a Victorian public park digging it up.

  30. Shogun @ #71 Saturday, June 17th, 2023 – 10:20 am

    Taylormade
    Australians got a good look at Gallagher this week.
    Not a very nice person at all.

    When you say “Australians” do not like her, I think you mean The Australian. Not the same thing at all.

    Also, next time you’re down at the IGA ask 10 shoppers what they think of Katy Gallagher.
    If you’re lucky you’ll fluke asking someone called Sharon Gallagher who has a sister named Katy.
    But that’s not really going to mean much.

  31. It shouldn’t take pressure from the Greens for Labor to improve their position re social/affordable housing, but it does.

    Tragically though, Fed Labor is determined to leave poverty-stricken renters behind.

  32. Victoria,

    “NEW: In a television interview with Christian Broadcast News, Florida Governor Ron DeSantis (R), suggested he would have liked to have been one of Jesus’s 12 disciples. @Fla_Pol,@AGGancarski.V”

    Trumpie, “The Messiah”, will be labelling him as Judas, “The Betrayer” and “The De-Sainted”.


  33. Holdenhillbillysays:
    Saturday, June 17, 2023 at 9:56 am
    Retirees pulled $14 billion out of the superannuation system last quarter as they looked to bolster their regular payments to cover living costs or pay down debt as interest rates keep climbing.

    HH and others
    The funny thing is that till now I thought that Superannuation find is a retirement nest to be used in retirement especially in difficult times.

    So Why is it news and surprise if retirees pull funds from their Superannuation to meet their lifestyle requirements?( Shaking my head emoji)

  34. Sohar @ #83 Saturday, June 17th, 2023 – 11:14 am

    Tanya takes a break from getting photographed with cute native animals.

    What about the risk of allowing the leasing of the Darwin Port to your biggest trading partner for 99 years so they can have an armchair view of every logistical move our navy,army and air force and defense ally should make.
    Some times the adults job is to figure out what’s best option for all of us.

  35. I used to be a Greens voter when I was in my early twenties.

    To be honest the holier than thou claiming of every social improvement (without reason) and lack of substance to put up alternative sustainable positions of the Greens changed my vote. The irony is it is often those with be kind and Green stickers on their cars (lot of them in suburb I live) who can end up very aggressive and rude.

    There are a lot on here who should tone their righteousness down a bit……yep I know that will not happen.

  36. Question on recent happening in parliament.

    When Thorpe made her accusations in Senate, and it was reported all over the media, the response from Scott Morrison’s office was that he had no recollection?

    Now other Liberal women (Stoker) have put their hands up that Van groped them as well…and Dutton has come out from under his rock with word that another complaint was made and its all bad enough that Van should resign as a Senator.

    Seems to me that all this happened when Morrison was PM and minister for almost everything else, and when the Brittney Higgins matters were in play and prominent in the media.

    And we are expected to believe that the then PM didn’t know. Ok, maybe he did know and left it to others in the party to deal with. That’s plausible and maybe proper if the PM had a particular connection to Van or something (is Van a religious prayer group type?? )…but why the ï dont recal??

    Seems to me that is begging for trouble down the track??

    And, was a bit annoyed at Thorpe coming out and claiming the press ignored this until Stoker put her hand up. Press were all over this straight after Thorpe made her claims in the Senate. 🙁 From my reading of this Thorpe’s allegations (now withdrawn? ) are credible and backed by other evidence and its a can of worms for the Libs.

    And still the Libs want to pursue the ALP?? FFS doing the look over there and look at me not them stuff is demeaning bullshit.

  37. Ven

    Best advice I got early on in planning the retirement process was being told “your superannuation is to fund your retirement, not make your kids rich.”
    My account balance has been steadily declining over the past 10 years. But there’s enough to live modestly and have an annual holiday for a few more years after which I’ll probably be past wanting to do that.

  38. ”Christian Broadcast News, Florida Governor Ron DeSantis (R), suggested he would have liked to have been one of Jesus’s 12 disciples. ”

    He’s showing some humility. Trump would want to be the Big Man himself.

  39. When the charge is ‘misleading Parliament’, nobody cares – and if anybody did, they would whataboutism bombard with tales of the Liar from the Shire.

    Like neglecting to tell Parliament that he secretly swore himself into half a dozen portfolios, whilst all the time declaring ‘Its not my job!’

    And as for who knew what and when mantra in this week’s Liberal talking points, all we have is:

    – Dutton shooting himself in the foot, again
    – Allegations of sleazy creepiness against another old Liberal man

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