Recent electoral developments at the federal level:
• The population statistics that will be used next month to calculate state and territory House of Representation seat entitlements have been published, and as Antony Green reports, they establish that New South Wales and Victoria will each lose a seat, putting them at 46 and 38 respectively; Western Australia will gain one, putting it at 16; and the others will remain unchanged at Queensland 30, South Australia 10, Tasmania five, the ACT three and the Northern Territory two. The vagaries of rounding mean the total size of the House will be down one to 150. Redistributions will duly be required in three states – Antony Green has a further post looking at the specifics in Western Australia, where the new seat seems likely to be in the eastern suburbs of Perth.
• Matthew Killoran of the Courier-Mail reports a view that right-wing Liberal National Party Senator Gerard Rennick will “narrowly see off” challenges to his third position on the Queensland Senate ticket from Nelson Savanh, who works with strategic communications firm Michelson Alexander and appears to be an ideological moderate, and Stuart Fraser, director of a private investment fund.
• Jamie Walker of The Australian reports speculation that Pauline Hanson will shortly retire from politics, with her Senate vacancy to be filled by her chief-of-staff, James Ashby, who first came to public attention when he brought sexual harassment allegations against Peter Slipper, then the Speaker and Ashby’s boss, in 2012. Hanson spoke to The Australian of her frustration at being sidelined by a Labor government that prefers to negotiate with Jacqui Lambie and David Pocock to pass contested legislation through the Senate.
• The Guardian has launched an Indigenous Voice poll tracker. Meanwhile, academic Murray Goot has things to say about Newspoll’s recent result and The Australian’s presentation of it.
• Paul Sakkal of the Age/Herald reports the Joint Standing Committee on Electoral Matters will shortly recommend donation and spending caps and bans on false information in political advertisements, which have the broad support of the government and the relevant minister, Special Minister of State Don Farrell. Labor’s new draft national platform says it will work towards reducing reliance on donations and move to an expanded public funding system, much of the impetus coming from Clive Palmer’s extravagant electoral spending. Donation caps are opposed by Climate 200 and the Australia Institute, which argue that donor-funded campaigns provide the only opportunity for new entrants to take on incumbents. Donation caps at state level of $6700 a year in New South Wales and $4000 in Victoria were seen as inhibiting teal independent efforts to replicate their successes at federal elections.
• This week’s federal voting intention numbers from Roy Morgan have Labor’s two-party lead out from 55.5-44.5 to 56-44, from primary votes of Labor 35%, Coalition 33.5% and Greens 13.0%.
State by-elections latest:
• The Victorian Liberals will choose their candidate for the Warrandyte by-election on Sunday. Rachel Baxendale of The Australian reports the outcome is “far from clear”, with 22-year-old law student Antonietta Di Cosmo di Cosmo reckoned as good a chance as any out of the field of nine candidates. Conservative allies of Deakin MP Michael Sukkar are reportedly split between former Institute of Public Affairs executive director John Roskam and former Pentecostal pastor Nicole Ta-Ei Werner, while the opposing factional claim is divided between KPMG director Sarah Overton, tech business founder Jason McClintock and former Matthew Guy staffer Jemma Townson. Meanwhile, The Age reports Labor MPs are pressing for the party to field a candidate. Confirmation of a date for the by-election is still a while off, with outgoing member Ryan Smith not to formally resign until July 7.
• In Western Australia, Josh Zimmerman of The West Australian reports Labor’s administrative committee has confirmed party staffer Magenta Marshall as its candidate to succeed Mark McGowan in Rockingham on July 29. Rather surprisingly, the Liberals have committed to field a candidate in a seat McGowan won in 2021 by 37.7%.
“Bazz” is a nickname. Tick. “Ball” is word favoured for its flexible accommodation of prefixes and adjectives. Tick. Alliteration. Tick. I guess sports writers need to hang their hats on something. I watched “The ABC of” last night on iView, the interview of Greig Pickhaver. Roy and HG might enjoy a few opinions on the Bazz thing.
I’m a fan of Bazball.
Makes a huge difference to the Poms doctoring the pitches and hiding behind some otherwise mediocre swing bowling.
Both teams played really well. The poms only got beaten by the World Champions, who are close to being at the top of their game as a unit (even though several players have question marks attached to them at the moment).
I think this could be a great series. All hail bazball!
LR, I caught a little of that. Very good.
Although when I see David Wenham I still see Brett Sprague and get shivers.
The Poms bowled 23 no-balls for the match. Australia bowled 4.
I’ve lost count of the times Australia has suffered narrow defeats because they couldn’t keep their front feet behind the damn line, so this is a welcome change.
Self-belief and a positive attitude are well and good, but it pays to look after the one percent things and not just assume you can crush the opposition.
As in cricket, so in life (including elections).
https://www.pollbludger.net/2023/06/17/miscellany-seat-entitlements-electoral-reforms-by-elections-latest-and-more-open-thread/comment-page-33/#comment-4124916
After Brexit, all for the pirates of the stock exchange, may be financial service, they might go back to the other side of the Boer War, opium and slavery (because if they go forward, well time to pay reparations, see the realm shrink some more) …
Ru[]e Britannia, let it sink below the waves!
There were more that didnt get called.
TK, I’m unfamiliar with “Brett Sprague”. I tend to see Murray Wheelan in “Stiff” and “The Brush Off”. Funny, clever stuff.
The 3 No 11s thing will be written on Robinson’s tomb. What a backfire.
I am so unsurprised that PB managed to bring submarines into a cricket conversation.
The declaration was nothing to do with “Bazball”, Stokes wanted to have a few overs at Australia’s batting in declining light at the end of a long day in the field, a fairly regular type of declaration timing. If they’d knocked off Warner and Khawaja before stumps it would have been hailed as the move of the match, instead they got no wickets until the morning and it didn’t come off, but it was a justifiable tactical move.
If England prepare a more normal English pitch for the next game I expect Australia to go no change. If it’s another road they must be tempted to sub Starc for Boland. The difference in threat level from Boland in those few overs where the barometric pressure plunged and the storm approached was just massive. But he does need that bit of help from the conditions, Starc has his pace wherever he goes and we really missed it against the English tail.
The ‘tell us what’s in/out’ game Ley and others are playing is likely to be as effective as it is duplicitous.
Of course, the scope of the voice is open-ended; the point is to allow first nations people to make representations “on matters relating to Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander peoples”. Surely, those matters are for their judgement, not ours.
If we’re going to circumscribe what they are allowed to talk about, have we really moved on from the paternalistic “we know what you need” mentality? do they really have their own voice at all?
Late Riser @ #1657 Wednesday, June 21st, 2023 – 12:14 pm
The Boys. Movie loosely based on Anita Cobby murder. Dont watch it. The acting was too good.
I’m also a fan of BazBall – compare it with Geoff Boycott who holds the dubious Test record of 77 without scoring a boundary; or this effort in NZ:
In the first hour of the third day Boycott scored 12 runs; he added 10 in the second, six in the third – including a boundary – and 12 in the fourth. In all he was at the crease for seven hours and 22 minutes. “His innings showed such a remarkable lack of awareness that by the end one had almost begun to question his motives,” Blofeld wrote.
Boycott, with remarkable hubris, defended his efforts: “A master billiard player cannot show any artistry if he has to play on a bumpy table – so what chance does a batsman have in the same conditions?”
https://www.theguardian.com/sport/2018/mar/06/the-spin-cricket-geoff-boycott-england-new-zealand-test-1978
Speaking of ‘Cookers’, is it possible that the Blak Sovereignty movement want to negotiate their Treaty with King Charles III? As the Crown.
This was alluded to by Senator Thorpe.
I hope she does get a few paragraphs in the AEC pamphlet No Case
Team Katich @ #1660 Wednesday, June 21st, 2023 – 12:56 pm
Yeah. Based on that I might give it a miss. Ordinarily David Wenham or Toni Collette would have me watching, let alone both. “The Pieces of Her”, Netflix, has both.
Great win considering we never looked super comfortable against unusual tactics until Stokes decided to try and let Root bowl England to victory and put fields in made positions like wide long stop.
Having said that, only Root would make the current Aussie team and the English bowling attack was probably the oldest since Frank Woolley and Wilfred Rhodes won the Ashes back in 1926.
Queen Lydia? ROFL.
sprocket_ @ #1670 Wednesday, June 21st, 2023 – 1:03 pm
A comment dripping with white supremacist elitism.
As head of the Crown occupying Govt, why wouldn’t King Charles III grant an audience with Senator Thorpe to discuss the merits of establishing a treaty between FN’s leaders and his Crown Govt ..?
If the King gives his blessing, through the GG, to the PM to seek to establish a treaty, that would be most welcome by nearly everyone.
Late Riser @ #1663 Wednesday, June 21st, 2023 – 12:47 pm
Nothing graphic. Just immensely traumatic. Lynette Curran was amazing in it as she comes to terms with what her son is. Polson was good too. But Wenham is too believable for comfort.
I have been watching the TV series Alone (Canada). Those chaps dont seem to be enjoying themselves much – but it is riveting.
White feather Rex nails it:
A comment dripping with white supremacist elitism:
As head of the Crown occupying Govt, why wouldn’t King Charles III grant an audience with Senator Thorpe to discuss the merits of establishing a treaty between FN’s leaders and his Crown Govt ..?
If the King gives his blessing, through the GG, to the PM to seek to establish a treaty, that would be most welcome by nearly everyone.
What’s at the heart of the “No” campaign?
It’s being driven by right-wing populism:
” Right-wing media and politicians thus focus on arguing that “other” groups are being given something affluent white people aren’t: “favoured treatment”.
This always takes place in a zero-sum context: any effort to improve the lives of “others” must be framed as inevitably damaging to the interests of the in-group, even if no damage actually results, or even if the whole community benefits — as is the case for improving the health, educational, economic and criminal justice outcomes for minority groups.”
https://www.crikey.com.au/2023/06/21/voice-to-parliament-white-resentment-no-campaign/
What the article doesn’t answer, in relation to the defeat of the Referendum, is “Cui Bono?” Who actually does benefit? Right-wing politics, through the weakening of the Albanese Government? The miners and agribusiness? Developers, especially those operating in regional areas? Small Government ideology? I think it’s all of the above.
In the Parliament there are three indigenous members who oppose the voice: Price, Liddle and Thorpe. Price and Liddle’s views outweigh Thorpe’s two to one. Therefore they must be right.
Best & Less becomes latest Australian company to see sales flop
https://www-news-com-au.cdn.ampproject.org/v/s/www.news.com.au/finance/business/retail/best-less-becomes-latest-australian-company-to-see-sales-flop/news-story/fd5482394f6c3c39ba16e59c659b7673?amp=&_gsa=1&_js_v=a9&usqp=mq331AQGsAEggAID#amp_tf=From%20%251%24s&aoh=16873070910138&csi=0&referrer=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.google.com&share=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.news.com.au%2Ffinance%2Fbusiness%2Fretail%2Fbest-less-becomes-latest-australian-company-to-see-sales-flop%2Fnews-story%2Ffd5482394f6c3c39ba16e59c659b7673
“Best & Less has become the latest retailer to report deteriorating sales as the cost of living crisis bites into consumer spending.
The discount variety retailer has recorded a more than 13 per cent drop in its sales from May to June, and it expects its half-year profit to flop by as much as two thirds.
This half-year is expected to see Best & Less bring in total revenue of between $310-315m and a net profit after tax (NPAT) of $3.6m and $4.2m.”
Rex wanting to beseech the King for his indulgence…
Victorian MPs get a pay rise
https://amp.abc.net.au/article/102502684
Have no idea why State MPs need a full time salary in the first place. Should be a part time gig like it is in the US and some Canadian provinces.
Premiers are glorified Mayors and state legislatures could easily shed a lot of their responsibilities to Local Governments or push up to Fed
Maybe the Lib State MPs could survive on lobster lunches?
First question on The Voice and Australia Day.
Real question today is will The Voice be able to select the Australian cricket team?
Will the Voice veto team selections for the Ashes?
Rex Douglas
If the King gives his blessing, through the GG, to the PM to seek to establish a treaty, that would be most welcome by nearly everyone.
I think your sentence has a typo. By “nearly everyone” do you mean “nearly no one”?
A real problem for the YES campaign is overcoming the public’s cynicism to politics created by bad faith politicians.
Boerwar @ #1678 Wednesday, June 21st, 2023 – 1:40 pm
Come on. You know all they will be able to do is hold it up in the courts for years.
Today is International Day of Yoga as designated by UN
https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/international-yoga-day-2023-live-events-latest-updates-narendra-modi-news-21-june-2023/liveblog/101147422.cms
@Sprocket they could do.
Carr and Egan used to dine on crabs for years.
Sir Lunchalot was also a fan of the Boris Yeltsin guide to lengthy degustations.
Backbenchers at the very least should be moving down to < 1.0 FTEs.
Rex Douglas says:
Wednesday, June 21, 2023 at 2:14 pm
A real problem for the YES campaign is overcoming the public’s cynicism to politics created by bad faith politicians.
________________________________________
Speaking of bad faith politicians, did you hear about the Senator who got elected for a six year term as the candidate for a party and dumped the party tout suite – having used and abused them (the abuse continuing as late as yesterday against a fellow indigenous senator who had the temerity not to follow her out of the Greens)
Well, bazball provided at least one good thing…
The greatest test match in living memory… !
Thanks, England 😆
I find the idea of King Charles having any involvement in a future treaty between the Australian government and indigenous Australian – at least beyond signing the relevant documents when they are put on his desk – to be absolutely ridiculous. It’s 2023, FFS. The monarch does not speak for the Australian people.
Andrew Earlwood
“In fact – if were were to win 3 tests, and the Poms won two then the RAN could have a fleet of 3 Astutes and two Collins Class (maybe we could ‘pay’ the poms to keep one collins so we could have three of each) and the Poms would have a fleet of 3 (soon to be four) Astutes and a 3-4 boat Collins class.”
Arise, Admiral Sir Patrick Cummins, DSC
(not sure if that should be Distinguished Service to Cricket, or Distinguished Sub Captain)
“This actually makes more sense – by an order of magnitude – than the current AUKUS plan. ”
You see the flaw in the first five words.
NSW MPs ‘salute the sun’ for International Yoga Day
https://www.canberratimes.com.au/story/8242101/nsw-mps-salute-the-sun-for-international-yoga-day/
NSW MPs have taken time to reflect and centre themselves in a yoga and meditation class at Parliament House, in a brief reprieve from the hostilities often seen in the “bear pit”.
Pollies put their differences aside to generate good karma by joining thousands of others around the world also taking part in the ninth International Day of Yoga.
Spotted amongst the class were Independent MP for Murray Helen Dalton, Labor MP for The Entrance David Mehan and Greens member for Balmain Kobi Shetty.
The group started the day with a 45-minute yoga session, followed by breakfast, and wrapped up with a calming breath work and meditation session.
Sanctioned by the United Nations, the International Day of Yoga aims to raise awareness worldwide to the benefits of yoga and unite groups carrying out the practice worldwide.
The idea was first floated by Indian prime Minister Narendra Modi in 2014, who will lead his own yoga session on Wednesday on the North Lawn of UN Headquarters in New York.
https://www.sbs.com.au/language/hindi/en/podcast-episode/yoga-day/uk9xh4xo9
Rufus Leekin @ #1675 Wednesday, June 21st, 2023 – 1:59 pm
There’s no way that allowing (encouraging, even) businesses to employ our state legislators and premiers on a part- or full-time basis could create conflicts of interest. No way at all. Not like US politics is generally dysfunctional at the moment, or anything.
Asha @ #1694 Wednesday, June 21st, 2023 – 2:19 pm
Can you imagine the reaction from the conservative right if the King gave his blessing for the Govt to seek a treaty ?
It would take the wind out of their sails and make the process a hell of a lot easier.
The Government in QT systematically giving the Greens a pizzling over their housing destruction.
The Coalition continuing to target Burney.
@ a r – of course not. That’s why ICAC is so quiet all the time with full time politicians never having to attend.
A backbench MP who happens to be a local GP or a suburban solicitor or accountant operating their own small practice, is of no real risk to the fidelity of parliament and any potential conflicts of interest that would cause large scale fraud.
Premiers and some senior ministers should receive a full time salary, the rest should not.
Re: the US, the Congress is quite dysfunctional but State legislatures are quite efficient (like Connecticut, Massachusetts, Washington and in recent years Kentucky) and in many cases progressive, as their members are more active in the community because they work within it.
That’s a great way to ensure only that the only people who run for office are either the independently wealthy and or people with massive conflicts of interest.
The introduction of salaries for members of parliament is what allowed working class candidates to first break into the Australian political scene in the 1890s.
Boerwar @ #1699 Wednesday, June 21st, 2023 – 2:34 pm
Great viewing if you like Morrison style BS.
@ Asha if you think the majority of our current MPs particularly on the Labor side are working class, I have a bridge to sell you.
Many, including those in the Hard Left Faction, own multiple investment properties, live in million dollar homes, and either send their kids to private schools, attended private schools or both.
The days of a boilermaker or a cleaner earning minimum wage, and entering the halls of parliament are over.
To be honest I’d rather someone self fund their campaign or source community donations than some hack who has never worked a job outside of politics, and therefore is beholden to the system, receive blanket funds from a centralised and opaque political office.
Look at the way our politicians are selected. Membership of both parties are in decline and many of the MPs don’t even bother to live in their electorates.
And that’s Federal. No gives a stuff about state politics, which is why they get away with more
Rex:
It would also be utterly meaningless, what with it being the 21st century and all. Our democratically elected government doesn’t need permission from the king to negotiate a treaty. In a constitutional monarchy, the head of state acts on the advice of the head of government, not the other way around.
I reckon the conservative right would probably treat such a situation the same way as they do Charles’ advocacy for action on climate change: by suddenly becoming big believers in the importance of the monarch remaining above politics.
Rufus: “if you think the majority of our current MPs particularly on the Labor side are working class,”
You’re saying the Albanese didn’t come from a working class background?
I see Lidia Thorpe is back in the Labor partisan bad books now that they have no further use for her.
Colour me surprised.
Katich wrote, “FWIW,
nothing wrong (or bazzball) about the 1st innings declaration.
Nothing wrong (or bazzball) in delaying the new ball.
And for those journos already looking for excuses; ummmmm, no, Australia definitely did not get the better of the conditions and no, England were not unlucky with Moeens finger. ”
Just your opinions and quite frankly, not worth much.