Recent electoral developments at the federal level:
• The population statistics that will be used next month to calculate state and territory House of Representation seat entitlements have been published, and as Antony Green reports, they establish that New South Wales and Victoria will each lose a seat, putting them at 46 and 38 respectively; Western Australia will gain one, putting it at 16; and the others will remain unchanged at Queensland 30, South Australia 10, Tasmania five, the ACT three and the Northern Territory two. The vagaries of rounding mean the total size of the House will be down one to 150. Redistributions will duly be required in three states – Antony Green has a further post looking at the specifics in Western Australia, where the new seat seems likely to be in the eastern suburbs of Perth.
• Matthew Killoran of the Courier-Mail reports a view that right-wing Liberal National Party Senator Gerard Rennick will “narrowly see off” challenges to his third position on the Queensland Senate ticket from Nelson Savanh, who works with strategic communications firm Michelson Alexander and appears to be an ideological moderate, and Stuart Fraser, director of a private investment fund.
• Jamie Walker of The Australian reports speculation that Pauline Hanson will shortly retire from politics, with her Senate vacancy to be filled by her chief-of-staff, James Ashby, who first came to public attention when he brought sexual harassment allegations against Peter Slipper, then the Speaker and Ashby’s boss, in 2012. Hanson spoke to The Australian of her frustration at being sidelined by a Labor government that prefers to negotiate with Jacqui Lambie and David Pocock to pass contested legislation through the Senate.
• The Guardian has launched an Indigenous Voice poll tracker. Meanwhile, academic Murray Goot has things to say about Newspoll’s recent result and The Australian’s presentation of it.
• Paul Sakkal of the Age/Herald reports the Joint Standing Committee on Electoral Matters will shortly recommend donation and spending caps and bans on false information in political advertisements, which have the broad support of the government and the relevant minister, Special Minister of State Don Farrell. Labor’s new draft national platform says it will work towards reducing reliance on donations and move to an expanded public funding system, much of the impetus coming from Clive Palmer’s extravagant electoral spending. Donation caps are opposed by Climate 200 and the Australia Institute, which argue that donor-funded campaigns provide the only opportunity for new entrants to take on incumbents. Donation caps at state level of $6700 a year in New South Wales and $4000 in Victoria were seen as inhibiting teal independent efforts to replicate their successes at federal elections.
• This week’s federal voting intention numbers from Roy Morgan have Labor’s two-party lead out from 55.5-44.5 to 56-44, from primary votes of Labor 35%, Coalition 33.5% and Greens 13.0%.
State by-elections latest:
• The Victorian Liberals will choose their candidate for the Warrandyte by-election on Sunday. Rachel Baxendale of The Australian reports the outcome is “far from clear”, with 22-year-old law student Antonietta Di Cosmo di Cosmo reckoned as good a chance as any out of the field of nine candidates. Conservative allies of Deakin MP Michael Sukkar are reportedly split between former Institute of Public Affairs executive director John Roskam and former Pentecostal pastor Nicole Ta-Ei Werner, while the opposing factional claim is divided between KPMG director Sarah Overton, tech business founder Jason McClintock and former Matthew Guy staffer Jemma Townson. Meanwhile, The Age reports Labor MPs are pressing for the party to field a candidate. Confirmation of a date for the by-election is still a while off, with outgoing member Ryan Smith not to formally resign until July 7.
• In Western Australia, Josh Zimmerman of The West Australian reports Labor’s administrative committee has confirmed party staffer Magenta Marshall as its candidate to succeed Mark McGowan in Rockingham on July 29. Rather surprisingly, the Liberals have committed to field a candidate in a seat McGowan won in 2021 by 37.7%.
“WWP: “anywhoo does someone have stats?”
If ya don’t have stats, don’t quote stats.”
Is this ‘no opinions allowed’ a PB rule or you off on a frolic of your own?
One of the better cartoons of recent times.
Rufus : “Pi(ssy) ”
Alpo, you can go and get fucked with your attempt to lower the debate to your level. I’m not going to put up with you calling me names because you can’t defend your opinion.
WWP: ” ‘no opinions allowed’”
Strawman.
Of course the reality is that politics here and elsewhere attracts a certain type of individual. Should I mind that Albo followed the path he did to enter politics and ultimately become PM? Not really. Would we all benefit if politicians came from more diverse backgrounds? Maybe. Would politics be better served if the current University of Melbourne Vice-Chancellor was a member of the Parliament? Perhaps.
Of course the UniMelb Vice-Chancellor also earns three times more than Albo, so I can guess which job most people would take given the opportunity.
It’s a common tactic from conservatives to group any labor party with unions as a negative connotation. As if representing workers in negotiations was somehow not a valued skill when seeking a career in politics. What’s telling is the greens do it too. One of the many tactics that the greens political party and the LNP share in their concerted attacks on worker-centric political parties.
“Of course the reality is that politics here and elsewhere attracts a certain type of individual. Should I mind that Albo followed the path he did to enter politics and ultimately become PM? Not really. Would we all benefit if politicians came from more diverse backgrounds? Maybe. Would politics be better served if the current University of Melbourne Vice-Chancellor was a member of the Parliament? Perhaps.
Of course the UniMelb Vice-Chancellor also earns three times more than Albo, so I can guess which job most people would take given the opportunity.”
Yeah I heard someone make the case recently that by its nature the self-selecting of candidates in democracy is democracy’s greatest flaw, almost, but not quite, an argument that ‘anyone who didn’t nominate is going to be better than anyone who did’.
I’m happy to suggest that anyone who has risen to be vice chancellor in an Australian Uni, particularly the sandstone ones (is it group of 8) significantly strengthens the Parliament by their absence, they seem to have the same kind of attitude to academics that Amazon has to their workers.
Did Blinken leave China after meeting Xi yet?
Biden called Xi a “dictator”.
(I know, I know Xi is dictator. I am just concerned about Blinken. That’s all.)
https://www.indiatoday.in/world/story/us-president-joe-biden-xi-jinping-dictator-chinese-leader-antony-blinken-beijing-visit-2395787-2023-06-21
By Reuters: US President Joe Biden on Tuesday (local time) called Xi Jinping a dictator, a day after top US diplomat Antony Blinken visited Beijing to stabilise bilateral relations that China says are at their lowest point since formal ties were established.
Biden also said Xi was very embarrassed when a suspected Chinese spy balloon was blown off course over US airspace early this year, making a personal comment on the Chinese leader when Blinken said on Monday the “chapter” should be closed.
“The reason why Xi Jinping got very upset in terms of when I shot that balloon down with two box cars full of spy equipment in it was he didn’t know it was there,” Biden said at a fundraiser in California.
“That’s a great embarrassment for dictators. When they didn’t know what happened. That wasn’t supposed to be going where it was. It was blown off course,” Biden added.
Biden also said China “has real economic difficulties”.
“WWP: ” ‘no opinions allowed’”
Strawman.”
I’ve already tried to tell you what strawman actually means, and / or point you to a source so you can get it right. But seems you are stubbornly determined to just keep using it incorrectly. Again is very sweet of you and absolutely fucking hilarious, like Bart touching the donut that gives him an electric shock over and over and over again, but not quite as smart.
Just a few points about this debate (as I’m not really invested in it, tbh, too specious):
* It’s the policies not the people. Which Rufus, himself, has admitted as much.
* If any party should have more ‘Working Class’ MPs in it, it’s the Coalition. They’re the ones who are trying to appeal to the ‘Working Class’ in Australia, ie Non-Uni Educated, Tradies and other Certificate level workers.
* Has Rufus not noticed that the ‘Working Class’, since Howard and Costello cottoned on to the idea and facilitated it via legislation, are among the wealthiest workers in Australia now!?!
Oh, and his whole argument rationale reminds me of nothing so much as the Monty Python sketch, ‘Pining for the Fjords’. 😆
An argument based upon a paradigm that no longer exists or is relevant.
“* It’s the policies not the people. Which Rufus, himself, has admitted as much.
* If any party should have more ‘Working Class’ MPs in it, it’s the Coalition. They’re the ones who are trying to appeal to the ‘Working Class’ in Australia, ie Non-Uni Educated, Tradies and other Certificate level workers.
* Has Rufus not noticed that the ‘Working Class’, since Howard and Costello cottoned on to the idea and facilitated it via legislation, are among the wealthiest workers in Australia now!?!
Oh, and his whole argument rationale reminds me of nothing so much as the Monty Python sketch, ‘Pining for the Fjords’.
An argument based upon a paradigm that no longer exists or is relevant.”
I think I agree with you. The calcification of the political class in both parties isn’t really a function of the 50’s concept of a blue collar worker. This disjunction in our calcified politics isn’t with a concept of a worker (with the possible exception of public servants such as teachers, nurses etc who both sides consistently work very hard to continue to cut their wages), the disjunction is much more with those deliberately left behind by trickle down, with a false promise that the trickle down policy in question will rise all boats, but then we find out there is a cohort without a boat at all and we decided to hit them in the head with the paddle.
A labor is always better they enjoy the hitting the metaphorical drowning people in the head less and swing with less vigor.
Pi(ssy) no one is saying unions are inherently bad just that the people that run them are detached and have their noses in the trough.
Why has there been a decline in union membership when the average worker doesn’t see the benefit of joining one.
The SDA was a great union to be a part of primarily because top levels of the leadership still had some working affiliation in the retail sector.
I think it’s also a misnomer to say anyone with a University degree is intellectually superior to one without. In fact the standard of some degrees is proof they are only worth the paper they’re printed on.
Interesting how many on here closed ranks the minute someone questioned the professional political class of the Labor Party and Unions. As if it is sacrosanct and never to be criticised.
Libs and Labor are going to be in for a rude shock when a combination of declining party membership and more politically engaged (outside the nominal structures) minority groups intercede.
“Libs and Labor are going to be in for a rude shock when a combination of declining party membership and more politically engaged (outside the nominal structures) minority groups intercede.”
Except they aren’t, between them and the media barons, they control the game even if 60%+ of people hate the way they do it. I posted this morning that in Australia we don’t even really have good data sets to contrast the political centre and what the democratic centre might be.
WWP: “I’ve already tried to tell you what strawman actually means”
Study harder.
WWP: “smart”
What is it with people who are insecure about their intelligence that they focus so much on other peoples intelligence?
Alpo: “Pi(ssy) ”
Stop using ad hominems when referring to me. You have been warned. Again.
Mexicanbeamer
“Going to uni and being in a well paid job doesn’t exclude one from being working class if such a thing exists in todays society because most people work for someone else making them a worker.”
The failure of unions that might otherwise represent hundreds of thousands of people in professions like engineering, sciences, accountancy and law is the great failure of organised labour in my working lifetime. Professional bodies like Engineers Australia, CPA and AMA absolutely do NOT represent professional workers in an IR sense. But neither do the corresponding unions, so most don’t join them.
Rufus Leakin
There’s no way you’d be able to name 10 Labor Federal politicians who did not either work in state or federal MPs office, Labor HQ or Union HQ (research officer) or some associated think tank like McKell.
So it is okay to be born “working class” – but the moment you get a good job, you lose all your “working class” cred? What a load of hogshit.
“Study harder.”
As monty python noted that isn’t argument it is mere contradiction. Still less errors than your average post, so half full / half empty.
WWP: ” less errors than your average post”
Study much much harder.
“So it is okay to be born “working class” – but the moment you get a good job, you lose all your “working class” cred? What a load of hogshit.”
Well normal people don’t necessarily lose understanding and empathy for those who’ve they’ve left behind as they ascended the ladder of success, but the last 40 years of Australian politics suggests our politicians generally, with the possible standout exception of Lambie, do.
Pi(nhead) you’re the one referring to someone as an “Alpo”. According to urban dictionary that is derogatory ad hominem.
I’ll stop when you do
“WWP: ” less errors than your average post”
Study much much harder.”
I do constantly, and when someone points out I’ve got something wrong I treat it as a learning moment, and try to do better.
I find that more effective than just yelling at the top of my voice that I’m so right, that I win, that I’m a really really really big winner, everyone says so.
I tried that when I was 10 and I was rightly laughed at.
Rufus: “Pi(nhead) ”
Listen you demented shithead; I won’t put up with someone using ad hominems in regular discourse when trying to address me. Cut it out, or I will escalate it until you’re forced to cut it out one way or another. If you can’t engage in discussion without using derogative terms when referring to people, find another hobby.
WWP: ” less errors than your average post”
Pi: “Study much much harder.”
WWP: “I do constantly”
Well that ain’t workin. Time for a plan B. My advice? Don’t jump into the middle of discussions without anything worthwhile to say.
“Pi(nhead) you’re the one referring to someone as an “Alpo”. According to urban dictionary that is derogatory ad hominem.
I’ll stop when you do”
You need to be careful Pi almost certainly has his own special definition of ad hominem. It will be played like a trump card that immediately makes them the winner. A really really big winner, everyone says so.
QED
Rufus:
Been a bit busy so only just had the chance to catch up with your reply. FWIW, I’m in full agreement on the need for more MPs from lower socio-economic backgrounds. But cutting their pay to the extent that they need to work a second job outside of parliament would simply exacerbate the problem. Those very examples you gave of MPs from genuinely working-class background would have been unlikely to persue a political career if they were unable to survive solely off of their parliamentary salary.
Being an MP, even a state MP, is still a hell of a lot of work, in a field where one is under constant media scrutiny and is basically expected to always be on the clock. I too tend to take a fairly dim view of politicians giving themselves payrises, especially in this economic climate, and I do think that the amount they get paid is rather higher than it needs to be, but the demands the job takes on both their time and their mental health still warrants a substantial paycheck.
“Well that ain’t workin. Time for a plan B.”
You are right to the extent that it definitely isn’t working with you. A have a theory on that, but I’ll keep it to myself.
“Latin abbreviation for quod erat demonstrandum: “Which was to be demonstrated.” Q.E.D. may appear at the conclusion of a text to signify that the author’s overall argument has just been proven.”
QED works better at the end of a text where the author’s overall argument has been proven. It isn’t like a trump card you play to win rather than proving your argument.
You’ll get it eventually.
Or you won’t.
It’s been amusing watching WWP wipe the floor with Pi.
And this is why no-one takes you seriously nath.
Or, I should say, this is one of the many reasons.
strawman.
QED
“strawman.”
You win!!!!
“QED”
You win again. So much winning, you must be giddy.
WeWantPaul says:
Wednesday, June 21, 2023 at 5:59 pm
“strawman.”
You win!!!!
______
I know. I love it!
And this is what happens to debate when people start using puerile names when referring to posters. It gets reduced to nath-level.
For what it’s worth…………….
Isn’t cricket a great game?
Isn’t it great when we play the old enemy?
Who cares who wins?
But I fret the Ashes are those for the long game….
Tricot:
No, no, you don’t understand. Cricket is very serious business, and should be debated online with the same gravity and intensity one typically employs when discussing an impending world war.
Grattan and the Lowy poll – attitudes to China:
https://citynews.com.au/2023/friendlier-china-still-a-threat-says-poll/?utm_source=mailpoet&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=canberra-daily-today-s-news-today_7801
In other sporting news, one of my friends son has just been selected to represent Australia at the World Junior Titles for Snowboarding.
When I returned to the sport a decade ago he had just started riding and would follow his father down the hill and I used to follow him and pick up and dust him off when he crashed. Pretty stoked.
Nice RP. What a great experience for the kid.
“More than half (56%) say that in the event of a military conflict between China and the US, Australia should remain neutral. This is five points above 2022.
Asked about reaction to a Chinese invasion of Taiwan, 64% would support Australia sending arms and military supplies to the Taiwanese government. Six in ten (61%) would support using the Australian navy to help prevent China imposing a blockade around Taiwan. But only 42% would support “sending Australian military personnel to Taiwan to help defend it from China”.”
That is really really interesting, I’d have thought Matthew Knox and the other journos that have been working as a wholly owned subsidiary of the US military industrial complex would have got those numbers a lot lot higher. Goes to show you can’t fool all the people all the time.
I think Biden’s reference to Xi as being a dictator, though arguably ill-timed given Blinken’s visit, is to draw attention to Trump’s opinion of him (Xi). I further think Biden will ratchet up the rhetoric as regards Trump’s opinion of Putin & Kim; like Xi, the three of them are good guys according to him. Biden’s audience is principally domestic in the leadup to the primaries – smart politics in my view.
its terible to be a union oficial but it is okay to be trent twomey who represents farmase owners and wants to represent likehart next election and is triying to stop australians geting cheaper medasins or james paterson defending fredom to say raceist things on the cover of free speech
*cough*
Translation: Resisted the urge to crash-tackle a kid.
The real Julia comes to mind!
nath got his arse handed to him again, and claims it as a victory
Some preselections coming up for the Liberals for which you would shoo in with that mind set
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rQDeU6dHX-c
How NASA Visualized Voyager, and Helped Revolutionize Cinema
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=p22x9c2LAH4
So much winning!