Recent electoral developments at the federal level:
• The population statistics that will be used next month to calculate state and territory House of Representation seat entitlements have been published, and as Antony Green reports, they establish that New South Wales and Victoria will each lose a seat, putting them at 46 and 38 respectively; Western Australia will gain one, putting it at 16; and the others will remain unchanged at Queensland 30, South Australia 10, Tasmania five, the ACT three and the Northern Territory two. The vagaries of rounding mean the total size of the House will be down one to 150. Redistributions will duly be required in three states – Antony Green has a further post looking at the specifics in Western Australia, where the new seat seems likely to be in the eastern suburbs of Perth.
• Matthew Killoran of the Courier-Mail reports a view that right-wing Liberal National Party Senator Gerard Rennick will “narrowly see off” challenges to his third position on the Queensland Senate ticket from Nelson Savanh, who works with strategic communications firm Michelson Alexander and appears to be an ideological moderate, and Stuart Fraser, director of a private investment fund.
• Jamie Walker of The Australian reports speculation that Pauline Hanson will shortly retire from politics, with her Senate vacancy to be filled by her chief-of-staff, James Ashby, who first came to public attention when he brought sexual harassment allegations against Peter Slipper, then the Speaker and Ashby’s boss, in 2012. Hanson spoke to The Australian of her frustration at being sidelined by a Labor government that prefers to negotiate with Jacqui Lambie and David Pocock to pass contested legislation through the Senate.
• The Guardian has launched an Indigenous Voice poll tracker. Meanwhile, academic Murray Goot has things to say about Newspoll’s recent result and The Australian’s presentation of it.
• Paul Sakkal of the Age/Herald reports the Joint Standing Committee on Electoral Matters will shortly recommend donation and spending caps and bans on false information in political advertisements, which have the broad support of the government and the relevant minister, Special Minister of State Don Farrell. Labor’s new draft national platform says it will work towards reducing reliance on donations and move to an expanded public funding system, much of the impetus coming from Clive Palmer’s extravagant electoral spending. Donation caps are opposed by Climate 200 and the Australia Institute, which argue that donor-funded campaigns provide the only opportunity for new entrants to take on incumbents. Donation caps at state level of $6700 a year in New South Wales and $4000 in Victoria were seen as inhibiting teal independent efforts to replicate their successes at federal elections.
• This week’s federal voting intention numbers from Roy Morgan have Labor’s two-party lead out from 55.5-44.5 to 56-44, from primary votes of Labor 35%, Coalition 33.5% and Greens 13.0%.
State by-elections latest:
• The Victorian Liberals will choose their candidate for the Warrandyte by-election on Sunday. Rachel Baxendale of The Australian reports the outcome is “far from clear”, with 22-year-old law student Antonietta Di Cosmo di Cosmo reckoned as good a chance as any out of the field of nine candidates. Conservative allies of Deakin MP Michael Sukkar are reportedly split between former Institute of Public Affairs executive director John Roskam and former Pentecostal pastor Nicole Ta-Ei Werner, while the opposing factional claim is divided between KPMG director Sarah Overton, tech business founder Jason McClintock and former Matthew Guy staffer Jemma Townson. Meanwhile, The Age reports Labor MPs are pressing for the party to field a candidate. Confirmation of a date for the by-election is still a while off, with outgoing member Ryan Smith not to formally resign until July 7.
• In Western Australia, Josh Zimmerman of The West Australian reports Labor’s administrative committee has confirmed party staffer Magenta Marshall as its candidate to succeed Mark McGowan in Rockingham on July 29. Rather surprisingly, the Liberals have committed to field a candidate in a seat McGowan won in 2021 by 37.7%.
Gary Varvel is a brainwashed cartoonist.
C@t
Varvel is getting worse!
#weatheronPB
Arriving en masse,
a pale, yellow, cloud-crowd forms,
to cover my sun.
BK,
If such a thing were possible. 😆
HoldenHillbilly, from what you’ve posted, T**** is panicking. Do you have the links to those quotes?
Van’s complaint is obviously unreasonable.
Of course there’s a presumption of innocence — if I was accused of something serious in my workplace, I would be stood down pending an investigation.
If I was accused of murder, I’d be arrested.
Neither situation would deny me of the presumption of innocence, and both would damage my reputation even if I was found innocent.
And this points to the problem with far righters – they don’t understand how the values they’re supposedly standing for/defending work in real life.
So, Peter Dutton has told the Liberal Party’s national conference that ‘identity politics ‘ is a threat to his beloved Liberalism? Has he looked at his own party lately? It gives the Cantina scene from Star Wars a run for its money!
I thought I’d read a comment about Senator Van, that he had been a director of a public relations company specialising in reputation management. LinkedIn shows he was managing director of the De Wintern Group.
“De Wintern help directors and executives protect their organisation’s most valuable asset; its reputation.”
https://www.linkedin.com/in/david-v-7895a4/
Ironic. And perhaps they’re not eager to have him back?
UK Cartoons:
Van is upset because he is not receiving the protection from the Liberals and Newscorp to which he believes he is entitled.
Late Riser @ #358 Sunday, June 18th, 2023 – 8:05 am
I think he probably owns it. But they might find a bit of trouble getting future business.
Late Riser: https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/americas/us-politics/trump-biden-king-save-queen-b2359553.html
To the extent that his full name is David Van de Wintern?
”
Pisays:
Sunday, June 18, 2023 at 12:13 am
Greens complaining about partisanship. After they’re cheering for having extra social housing funding reduced from $10B to $2B. That’s pretty bold.
”
The funding for Housing policy will not increase to $12 billion (as Rebecca claimed) unless Greens Political party (as Albanese addressed them during Victorian State Labor Conference) vote as is on the current one introduced in Senate with latest amendment of guaranteed $500 million/ year.
Otherwise the Housing policy funding for the time being is reduced from $10 billion to $2 billion.
Well done Greens political party for brilliant manoeuvres on Government Housing policy. 🙂
“International Covenant on Civil and Political Rights
Article 14(2)
Everyone charged with a criminal offence shall have the right to be presumed innocent until proved guilty according to law.
See also: CRC article 40.”
In non criminal matters it is a matter of evidence and procedural fairness. In some employment matters the subjective impact on the victim is sufficient, there is certainly no a presumption of innocence to protect you.
”
Economists are increasingly worried Australia will enter a recession in the near future. But millions of Australians were not even alive at the time of the 1990s recession, writes Rachel Clun.
https://www.theage.com.au/politics/federal/it-is-a-tricky-business-how-will-we-know-if-we-re-in-recession-20230614-p5dghn.html
”
Someone should remind Rachel Clun that Australia had recession ( 2 consecutive negative growths numbers) in early 2000s when GST was introduced.
Very sloppy Ms. Clun
”
Anthony Galloway tells us that moderates and many conservatives in the Liberal Party united to block former vice president Teena McQueen from the party’s federal executive, in a move viewed by some as vital to the future direction of the party. What a shocker of a woman she is!
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/hard-right-figure-teena-mcqueen-blocked-from-liberal-party-s-federal-executive-20230617-p5dhc1.html
”
Big deal! (Sarcastic tone)
Possum Comitatus
@Pollytics
·
17h
Australia, for the first time in 40 years, is building a national housing policy with all three layers of government jurisdictions involved. Have been for 9 months.
Did you know?
If not, why not? (not a dig, seriously, ask why you weren’t informed)
”
Alexandra Smith writes that NSW’s embattled workers’ compensation insurer icare will need a state government top-up of more than $660 million within the next two weeks to ensure it can continue to pay injured frontline public servants.
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/nsw/embattled-nsw-insurer-needs-extra-660-million-as-work-property-claims-rise-20230616-p5dh5j.html
”
And this same Alex Smith was a Cheerleader for Gladys B and DoPe, who were responsible for the debacle of iCare, when they leaders and treasurers during the 12 year LNP government.
Pathetic Ms. Smith that you can write an article like that with straight face. 🙁
Holdenhillbilly @ #362 Sunday, June 18th, 2023 – 8:22 am
Thankyou much!
”
From BK’s Dawn patrol
Trump and the Republican party exemplify five elements of fascism, argues Robert Reich in a strong contribution.
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2023/jun/17/trump-republican-party-fascism
”
And the 5 elements are:
1. The rejection of democracy, the rule of law and equal rights under the law in favor of a strongman who interprets the popular will.
2. The galvanizing of popular rage against cultural elites.
3. Nationalism based on a dominant “superior” race and historic bloodlines.
4. Extolling brute strength and heroic warriors.
5. Disdain of women and fear of non-standard gender identities or sexual orientation.
As BK delicately says ” America is f****d”
“As BK delicately says ” America is f****d”
Foiled perhaps !
BK is a proper gentleman. 🙂
The internal feedback and pressure on Labor to improve its commitment to social housing is evident as the rushed out policy yesterday still has detail to be worked out re how much $ each state is allocated.
A panicked and reactionary response from Albanese, but welcome nonetheless.
The need for a progressive crossbench with BoP has never been more clear.
@zoomster – I can answer Scott’s question easily. Nobody cares about policy development processes, only what comes out the end if anything the government is willing to use even does come out the end.
I haven’t followed his Twitter like I used to but I checked in there and gee he has it in for Max Hyphen doesn’t he.
The Greens are a step closer today towards supporting the HAFF. And will milk it for all they’re worth along the way there. And trying to claim credit for it as well.
So The Greens can’t claim credit for Labor doing something about Housing because Labor have been doing the hard yards way before The Greens glommed onto it as a campaign issue benefiting them.
Pats Karvelas makes a strong point that nothing probably would have happened in parliament if Brittany Higgins hadn’t gone public in the media.
Morning all. Thanks for the morning roundup BK. With Van de Wintern, the problem was not a presumption of innocence, which he has enjoyed for a long time.
The problem with Van has been a presumption of invulnerability. Complaints were first raised prior to 2021, i.e. soon after he first arrived in parliament in 2019. Lambie went public about him in 2021. Nothing was done about him till 2023.
Nicely put, Socrates.
Quite a good panel on Insiders this morning. Strange . . . no News Ltd representatives.
What did Liberal Women know about Van, when did they know it and what did they do about it?
”
WeWantPaulsays:
Sunday, June 18, 2023 at 8:34 am
“International Covenant on Civil and Political Rights
Article 14(2)
Everyone charged with a criminal offence shall have the right to be presumed innocent until proved guilty according to law.
See also: CRC article 40.”
In non criminal matters it is a matter of evidence and procedural fairness. In some employment matters the subjective impact on the victim is sufficient, there is certainly no a presumption of innocence to protect you.
”
“Due process” was not followed in a person that I know for an allegation.
That person worked in a reputed Financial institution. He was on contract employee. He was a very good employee according to his supervisor. One day his supervisor goes to him says that there are some allegations against him by a female. The supervisor did not elaborate those allegations. He just said that he could not believe the contract employee behaved like that. When the employee asked what those allegations were, the supervisor refused to tell what they were. The employee was moved to some other place in the building. The contract employee contract was not renewed and Supervisor told him that he was sorry to lose good worker like him. The contract employee never knew what those allegations were.
Speers traps McKenzie over her hypocrisy on keeping confidences and she is flummoxed.
BK @ #384 Sunday, June 18th, 2023 – 9:37 am
But lets her off easy on the barrels of infrastructure pork. For which he gets a cutesy “Thanks Mate”.
Socrates @ #382 Sunday, June 18th, 2023 – 9:24 am
Add to that the idiot hubris of letting Van join in the attempted stomping of Gallagher (as a proxy for Higgins), goading Thorpe to go nuclear (more power to her), then crying about wounded innocence. It’s almost as if the Spoiled Boys Club can only recognise somebody else’s existence after that someone bights their head off. These people are entitled morons who are only just realising how comprehensively they’ve blown it.
Van has been shamed. How choice. How absolutely splendid. The Lying Reactionaries attempt to use shame non-stop to defile their opponents and their many socio-politico-cultural targets. Van will experience a sense of abject helplessness; of confusion and trauma. Good. Very good. In fact: excellent. The Reactionaries exploit shame without mercy. They’ve been trying to shame Katy Gallagher. They have exploited Brittany Higgins. They practice deceit and run with phobias every day of their useless lives. May their woes be without end.
Therein lies the issue for the parliamentary leaders to deal with now. Tidy up the processes and standard of conduct.
Whatever way you look at it, Van’s rights weren’t violated.
When the accusations were made, there were (apparently, although he can’t remember them) meetings where he had the opportunity to put his case.
The women concerned were satisfied that the steps taken were sufficient.
However, it would appear that it was dealt with on a case by case basis, rather than someone being able to put together a pattern of behaviour.
When the allegations were made public, he was barred from the party room. If he’d been shown to be innocent, he would have been allowed back in.
Rex
These are historical allegations.
There seems to be general agreement that the workplace is a lot less toxic now (and various measures have been taken to make it so).
Of course, having more women in Parliament helps.
zoomster @ #394 Sunday, June 18th, 2023 – 10:04 am
Yes, but then there’s Bridget McKenzie…
If you dig just one click into Van de Wintern’s LinkedIn profile you can read that he has “Strong personal interests in Corporate Social Responsibility, Community Advocacy, Social and Public Housing and stopping Violence against Women.”
He’s been in parliament for four years. This is surely known to people in his direct circle of influence, meaning many MPs and many of their staff. (I don’t know how that machine ticks.) The events of the past week suggest that mounting hypocrisy was finally too much for some. And if he believed his LinkedIn words, and perhaps even if he didn’t, I expect that he’s feeling frustration and bitterness at his current situation.
The problem I see in parliament is that the need for party loyalty is greater than the need for proper standards and ethics.
Thanks, BK.
Maybe Van thought he could get away with it…Barnaby did.
Congresswoman who has seen Biden whistleblower report says it’s not what GOP claims it is (the video of her interview on MSNBC is at the end of the article)
https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2023/6/17/2175984/-Congresswoman-who-s-seen-Biden-whistleblower-report-says-it-s-not-what-GOP-claims-it-is
“For another, their witnesses keep mysteriously disappearing or dying—almost as if they never existed at all. On top of that—and perhaps most telling of all—this information was brought to the FBI in 2020 during the Trump administration and was never acted on. If there were anything at all to any of this, the Eye of Sour-Don would have surely alit thereupon and revealed Biden’s perfidy to the wide world. In fact, a spokesperson for Democrats on the Oversight Committee has stated that the FBI “informed the Committee, in no uncertain terms, that this assessment was closed in August 2020 after it failed to identify sufficient evidence to justify further investigation.”
Of course, if you’re still not convinced, you might want to listen to someone who’s a bit more trustworthy than Rep. James Comer and Sen. Chuck Grassley, who’ve been trying to pass off this leftover nothingburger as fresh red meat for weeks now.
Rep. Jasmine Crockett, a Democrat from Texas and member of the House Oversight Committee, has actually seen the whistleblower document in question and—surprise, surprise—she asserts that it doesn’t actually say what Comer, Grassley, et al., claim it does. She joined MSNBC’s Ayman Mohyeldin on Friday to discuss the GOP’s transparent and childish hoax against Biden, and her take on the document in question was revealing.”
“
https://www.pollbludger.net/2023/06/17/miscellany-seat-entitlements-electoral-reforms-by-elections-latest-and-more-open-thread/comment-page-8/#comment-4123537
Yeah, it sounds like there is a pattern, be it Thorpe, Stoner, #3. As in he denies, she said, she said, she said.
Let’s see this pursued administratively, criminally, or even civilly for remedies.
Unlike the reverse witch craft trials, such as she says/ he denies … though I did note the statistic that something like a tiny percentage of sexual abuse or inappropriate behaviour incidents are reported, much less …
I think the next AFP Commissioner needs to recruited from overseas. Someone with an impeccable record of proper process and ethics. Someone outside the bubble given licence to go through the organisation.
I love, love, love Congressman Jared Moskoxitz!
https://youtu.be/FIMo4Gh3v6w
The “debate” on social housing misses the point.
It misses the point because some introduce politics, thinking social housing attracts voters.
Simply, the “aspiration” of living in Australia and “owning” your own home is being dragged into the real world, courtesy of house prices, house prices which are a function of a willing seller and a willing buyer, so Market, and noting that only 33% of house properties are subject to a mortgage, the remainder owned freehold.
NOT interest rates, which are well short of being “expensive” despite a contraction period introduced by inflation (it happens).
House prices, so a function of market
Instead of putting a cap on what you can sell a house property for (noting house prices go up AND they go down across the economic cycle), governments invest in social housing for the purpose of supply to a certain demographic of society (only).
Think “Coronation Street” or “Shameless”, both based on Council Estates and those renting from Councils.
Think of the King of England, his Estates and his tenants on those Estates (so social housing).
We have friends in Switzerland, generations of their family living in the family home and that is the history of the family and their neighbors.
Simply, social housing is in Australia to stay (and in suburbs such as Collingwood you see the high rise social housing complexes which have now been there for a generation, so nothing new).
The aspiration of “owning your own home” is an Australian myth now facing the real world (If you buy at $800,000-, where in a Capital City?, and have $200,000- saved up as a deposit and to meet fees, you are borrowing $650,000- which at 5% is costing you $32,500- per annum in pre tax $’s in interest alone, before you get to repaying the principal over 25 years. And in saving that $200,000- you have not received any “leg up” from interest earned because, over the past 15 years since the GFC no interest has been paid).
Hence a need for social housing and “built to rent” (‘built to rent” including both the arms of government and private, private looking for a market return because, absent that, you invest elsewhere) in appropriate locations, locations with access to public transport and amenities (that word “public” again!!).
An initial investment by government is welcomed because this issue has been left to Market over the recent past, so some catch up required.
But, to expand, when the Queen visited Australia in 1956, the population of Australia was 9 million, so populations grow which is in itself the driver of economic activity (look at Japan with a falling population so contraction and not sustainable)
The population will continue to grow.
It has to.
So the investment into social housing will be ongoing, into all future generations.
Hence, if you like, a Company with Capital and Reserves invested into the asset, the returns on that Capital and Reserves funding more investment into the asset.
Because demand will always be there.
Not like products where competition and moving demographics see the product obsolete and the Capital and Reserves extinguished
Yes, there will be those investing in home ownership, able to provide the 20% equity and otherwise service the debt (and debt repayment) and that is exclusively down to their ability to EARN money (including joint incomes to service).
My wife this morning used the description “average”
I countered that there is no “average” because everyone is a product of their own individual circumstances (from education to employment to life habits) so “average” is a misnomer.
As is presuming everyone will be capable of buying a home across their lifetimes.
You get out what you put in – across all aspects of life.
House properties continue to sell (and, currently, prices increasing) because people put in such that their circumstances are that they can buy a home.
But this is not all, never has been and never will be.
Hence social housing, starting with the high rise social housing Estates we see in Collingwood (as an example).
People live there.
And they will across their life time.
Never judge others by self.
We are all a product of what we put in and markets (so employment being available and rewarding commensurate with the ability and input of the individual because that is an outcome of Markets).
By investing a quantum of Capital (being taxpayer funds), the returns on that Capital being invested into an asset being social housing construction (generating its own return courtesy of net rents so a diversified income stream which is financial advice), the government is addressing this issue into the long term – which is the absolute requirement).
Not a band aid response
Not a band aid response because this is a generational issue which is going nowhere except to grow and grow and grow, representing a demographic of society.
There is not only government investment but private investment.
The difference being that private investment looks for Market returns (as the net).
Otherwise why invest?
Unless your wealth is akin to the King of England with his family Estates!!