Recent electoral developments at the federal level:
• The population statistics that will be used next month to calculate state and territory House of Representation seat entitlements have been published, and as Antony Green reports, they establish that New South Wales and Victoria will each lose a seat, putting them at 46 and 38 respectively; Western Australia will gain one, putting it at 16; and the others will remain unchanged at Queensland 30, South Australia 10, Tasmania five, the ACT three and the Northern Territory two. The vagaries of rounding mean the total size of the House will be down one to 150. Redistributions will duly be required in three states – Antony Green has a further post looking at the specifics in Western Australia, where the new seat seems likely to be in the eastern suburbs of Perth.
• Matthew Killoran of the Courier-Mail reports a view that right-wing Liberal National Party Senator Gerard Rennick will “narrowly see off” challenges to his third position on the Queensland Senate ticket from Nelson Savanh, who works with strategic communications firm Michelson Alexander and appears to be an ideological moderate, and Stuart Fraser, director of a private investment fund.
• Jamie Walker of The Australian reports speculation that Pauline Hanson will shortly retire from politics, with her Senate vacancy to be filled by her chief-of-staff, James Ashby, who first came to public attention when he brought sexual harassment allegations against Peter Slipper, then the Speaker and Ashby’s boss, in 2012. Hanson spoke to The Australian of her frustration at being sidelined by a Labor government that prefers to negotiate with Jacqui Lambie and David Pocock to pass contested legislation through the Senate.
• The Guardian has launched an Indigenous Voice poll tracker. Meanwhile, academic Murray Goot has things to say about Newspoll’s recent result and The Australian’s presentation of it.
• Paul Sakkal of the Age/Herald reports the Joint Standing Committee on Electoral Matters will shortly recommend donation and spending caps and bans on false information in political advertisements, which have the broad support of the government and the relevant minister, Special Minister of State Don Farrell. Labor’s new draft national platform says it will work towards reducing reliance on donations and move to an expanded public funding system, much of the impetus coming from Clive Palmer’s extravagant electoral spending. Donation caps are opposed by Climate 200 and the Australia Institute, which argue that donor-funded campaigns provide the only opportunity for new entrants to take on incumbents. Donation caps at state level of $6700 a year in New South Wales and $4000 in Victoria were seen as inhibiting teal independent efforts to replicate their successes at federal elections.
• This week’s federal voting intention numbers from Roy Morgan have Labor’s two-party lead out from 55.5-44.5 to 56-44, from primary votes of Labor 35%, Coalition 33.5% and Greens 13.0%.
State by-elections latest:
• The Victorian Liberals will choose their candidate for the Warrandyte by-election on Sunday. Rachel Baxendale of The Australian reports the outcome is “far from clear”, with 22-year-old law student Antonietta Di Cosmo di Cosmo reckoned as good a chance as any out of the field of nine candidates. Conservative allies of Deakin MP Michael Sukkar are reportedly split between former Institute of Public Affairs executive director John Roskam and former Pentecostal pastor Nicole Ta-Ei Werner, while the opposing factional claim is divided between KPMG director Sarah Overton, tech business founder Jason McClintock and former Matthew Guy staffer Jemma Townson. Meanwhile, The Age reports Labor MPs are pressing for the party to field a candidate. Confirmation of a date for the by-election is still a while off, with outgoing member Ryan Smith not to formally resign until July 7.
• In Western Australia, Josh Zimmerman of The West Australian reports Labor’s administrative committee has confirmed party staffer Magenta Marshall as its candidate to succeed Mark McGowan in Rockingham on July 29. Rather surprisingly, the Liberals have committed to field a candidate in a seat McGowan won in 2021 by 37.7%.
The Ukrainian hosts of the African ‘peace’ delegation which visited Kyiv on Friday are very clear about the only thing those African national leaders were interested in from them:
“The African leaders’ delegation that came to Kyiv on June 16 to present a peace plan was mostly interested in suspending Russian dictator Vladimir Putin’s arrest warrant, Mykhailo Podolyak, an advisor to Ukraine’s Presidential Office, said.
“There is one point that worries them and for which, I think, they came,” he said on June 17.
“Trust comes in small steps: And let’s make one of the points the termination of the ICC warrant issued for Putin’s arrest, and this will symbolize such trust, and then we will move on to the next points,” he recalled them saying.”
https://kyivindependent.com/podolyak-african-leaders-came-to-ukraine-to-ask-for-putins-arrest-warrant-suspension/
Just like the Chinese envoy earlier this year, these African leaders went and wasted President Volodymyr Zelenskyy’s valuable time with special pleading, in this case to save them from a domestic and intracontinental political jam of Putin’s making. And they had the hide to try to cloak their entirely self-interested showboating on President Zelenskyy’s time with an deceitful fig leaf of ‘promoting peace’ – all without any suggestios at all to actually encourage Putin to cease his entirely illegal and unjustified invasion and occupation of his sovereign, independent neighbour.
😡
What I don’t get about Van, if Stoker was his first ‘offence’, he got a warning…don’t be so stupid again.
Surely any sensible person would think themselves mighty lucky and never ever be so stupid to do it again and threaten their whole lives….you must feel pretty entitled to think you can merrily keep doing it again and again.
here we go again
Who is this King of England of whom you write?
There hasn’t been a king of England since William III. There hasn’t been a queen of England since Queen Anne. Such titles disappeared with the Union of 1707.
michaelia cash has questions to answer she should resign as shadow aterney general so she new about Vans aligations butfor years but could have covered them up or at least ddid bnothing about them it seems gaetjones cant find a job after his role with pm department
In case anyone still had any doubts whether or not it was Russia which blew up the Kakhova Dam and inflicted a cruel and completely unnecessary humanitarian and environmental catastrophe upon the already too-much-suffering people of Ukraine:
“An investigation published by the New York Times on June 17 indicated that an explosive charge in a passageway running through the dam’s concrete base detonated and destroyed the structure on June 6.
The Kremlin knew the dam’s weak point because it was built during Soviet times, the investigation noted.
According to the investigation, the evidence “clearly suggests the dam was crippled by an explosion set off by the side that controls it: Russia.”
https://kyivindependent.com/nyt-evidence-suggests-russia-blew-kakhovka-dam/
So, what is the United Nations, the United States, the United Kingdom, the European Union, India, China, Brazil and Indonesia – and Australia and New Zealand – going to do about it? How are they going to condemn and punish Russia for this egregious war crime and crime against humanity and nature?
Waiting … 😐
plus stocker alsois compremised s he interviewed van on her show a month a go and also was theparliamentary secreatary for woman and to michaelia cash her self as aterney general it seems she was promised the aterney generals role if morrison was re elected so now she wants a return to federal parliament
”
here we go againsays:
Sunday, June 18, 2023 at 10:31 am
The “debate” on social housing misses the point.
It misses the point because some introduce politics, thinking social housing attracts voters.
Simply, the “aspiration” of living in Australia and “owning” your own home is being dragged into the real world, courtesy of house prices, house prices which are a function of a willing seller and a willing buyer, so Market, and noting that only 33% of house properties are subject to a mortgage, the remainder owned freehold.
………..
……..
”
Well said.
People like Rex, who put forward some ridiculous assertions, should read this post.
Now there’s a report that one member of the South African delegation is spreading disinformation back home to SA media that the Russian missile strikes upon Kyiv while the visit was occurring was some kind of perverse hoax:
“The spokesperson for South Africa’s president has drawn criticism for suggesting a Russian missile attack on Kyiv on Friday didn’t happen and was “deliberate misinformation.”
Vincent Magwenya arrived in the Ukrainian capital on Friday morning, June 16, as part of an African delegation attempting to broker a peace deal between Russia and Ukraine.
Shortly after they arrived, Kyiv was targeted by a Russian missile attack. Kyiv Post reporters – as well as every other media organisation present in the city – saw and heard the missiles in the skies over the capital, and witnessed several loud explosions as they were intercepted.
South African President Ramaphosa himself, during a press conference after meeting Ukrainian President Zelensky, acknowledged reports of missile strikes and expressed concern that such things hinder peace efforts.
Despite this, Magwenya told South African news outlet News 24 that he had not witnessed anything to suggest an attack took place.
“It’s very strange that we didn’t hear or see an explosion,” he said. “There’s obviously some deliberate misinformation being spread here. People are going on about their day.””
https://www.kyivpost.com/post/18368
If South Africa does not either compel this forked-tongued spokesperson of theirs to emerge and publicly retract his outrageous slur upon Ukraine and apologise for it, or alternatively, publicly humiliate him and then sack him for going rogue, then South Africa will have revealed itself to be a mere puppet of Putin and an enemy of Ukraine, and we should all treat it accordingly. 😡
Public housing doesn’t have to be rental housing. It can encompass owner-occupied housing as well. I can be high quality and it can include a range of housing types. The fact that Australia hasn’t done it doesn’t mean it can’t be done.
The truth is that massively expanding the scope and scale of public housing would be a very effective thing for the federal government to do. Don’t fall into the trap of believing that what governments have done during the past 40 years defines what governments CAN do.
Nicholas
Public housing doesn’t have to be rental housing. It can encompass owner-occupied housing as well. I can be high quality and it can include a range of housing types.
Public housing can be all these things. The only thing it cannot be is inside Max Chandler-Mather’s electorate.
MCM wants a lot of additional public housing in his electorate. I’m not sure who you’re trying to convince of that particular lie you tell.
https://twitter.com/i/status/1670220053315481600
Nicholas: “MCM wants a lot of additional public housing in his electorate. ”
https://www.afr.com/rear-window/greens-housing-spokesman-opposes-1300-new-homes-20230411-p5czkq
It is the total lack of curiosity of greens about the hypocrisy of the people they spruik that is most galling. You know one thing MCM NEVER does? Suggest where the public housing should go. While blocking housing development on ex-industrial land in his own electorate.
Three of the four richest electorates in QLD are held by the greens. You know where they stand on social housing; Block it.
”Public housing doesn’t have to be rental housing. It can encompass owner-occupied housing as well. I can be high quality and it can include a range of housing types. The fact that Australia hasn’t done it doesn’t mean it can’t be done.”
Public housing as an available accomodation option, like public transport for transport. The housing market is failing, we need to do something else. Increase suppy into a market that fails to produce enough is one possibility.
“Quasarsays:
Sunday, June 18, 2023 at 10:19 am
Thanks, BK.
Maybe Van thought he could get away with it…Barnaby did.”
And plenty of others!
It’s time to stop injustice in our country
https://www.facebook.com/freeeddieobeid
i wondersombody leaked imformation to atempt to discredit ms higgins as a luyer using ray hadley to trash a aleged victem of sexdual asult i think afp oficials need to go especial mathew bulavin
Oakeshott country says:
Sunday, June 18, 2023 at 12:22 pm
It’s time to stop injustice in our country
https://www.facebook.com/freeeddieobeid
_______
about time.
Breakthrough for the homeless in the UK
William and Kate to act:
https://www.smh.com.au/world/europe/prince-william-releases-new-family-photo-says-he-wants-to-help-end-homelessness-20230618-p5dhf7.html
Frogmore Cottage alone could take 15 – once you get the freeloading Harry out. All up the royal’s spare rooms would take 10,000 and then we have Mavis’ plan to put in granny flats on the royal estates = problem solved.
OC
Yep. As easy as that. Would never happen in a month of Sundays that they would give their residences up.
Pi says:
Sunday, June 18, 2023 at 11:37 am
>Nicholas: “MCM wants a lot of additional public housing in his electorate. ”
>https://www.afr.com/rear-window/greens-housing-spokesman-opposes-1300-new-homes-20230411-p5czkq
https://www.maxchandlermather.com/barracks
Unfortunately not a single one of the 855 dwellings will be affordable housing.
Yet here we have the council approving a massive development on land BCC’s own flood maps says is seriously flood prone.
Not only that but the developer’s traffic modelling assumes that Lytton Road will be widened to four lanes in the near future requiring resumption of private homes
The Right Wing nutcases in America are all excited that a coup is happening at moment because there are military vehicles on the highways.
It happens to be summer and the National guard units are moving for their annual training.
Storm in a tea cup.
https://www.brisbanetimes.com.au/world/north-america/fox-news-producer-behind-biden-wannabe-dictator-headline-fired-20230617-p5dhbx.html
That the toxic stew at Fox includes this level of misogyny isn’t news. But what may be interesting is that Carlson and McCaskill were both fired. Coupled with Dutton’s response to allegations about Mr Van’s behaviour, perhaps, just maybe, the Overton Window has started moving back. It’s a hopeful thought, though probably naive.
And lets also listen to the local Labor member
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2023/may/28/bulimba-barracks-brisbane-river-site-development
The local councillor, Labor’s Lucy Collier – who lives in Bulimba and is just weeks into her new role – said she shares “the concerns of residents that there needs to be improved traffic management and public transport amenities”.
Lidia Thorpe ‘absolutely within her right’ to use parliamentary privilege, Bridget McKenzie says
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2023/jun/18/lidia-thorpe-absolutely-within-her-right-to-use-parliamentary-privilege-bridget-mckenzie-says
You’re almost there Ms McKenzie. Now. Just imagine if you didn’t need to be a member of parliament. If you had… say… a voice.
It became an issue for the liberals when Ms Stoker corroborated it. A better example could not be found for the justification.
Catprog: “Unfortunately not a single one of the 855 dwellings will be affordable housing.”
Was that a criticism as justification for blocking it was it? Please; Tell us all what that was. You know… given the demographics of his electorate.
Gee that Lucy Collier sounds terrible! 😆
More public transport and improved traffic management!
yes but dutton only acted on the aligations whenstocker came foward who in 2021 was premoated toparliamentary secretary asisting on womans ishues in particular with governments response to the respect at work report gallacher is minister for woman responsible along with Dreyfus in implementing the report properly so cash new in 2020 but did nothing abbout it yet she has the hipocrasy to bring down Gallacher on some conspiracy theorey as if some one as opotunistic as cash has not mis lead parliament and dutton being praised for acting fast by haines he only acted bacause of stoker he was thanked by porter for being the only cabenit back him fully when morrison realised he was a political liability did not hurt that porter backed dutton in 2018 sbill
I hope that the Coalition tactics committee realise that their co-ordinated attack with News Ltd on Katy Gallagher has fallen flat on its face, not to mention gone kaboom! in their faces like an exploding cigar, and so to continue with it next week in parliament will look kind of sad and desperate.
Gee that Max Chandler-Mather sounds terrible.
Worring about the impact of the increased traffic on the current residents and having their homes resumpted.
dutton the new so called champion of woman who never mises an oppotunity to sexualise woman and is the mosst openly raceist opposition leader ever lacking the deniability of howard he is a opputunist who seems to have little principal other then what ever it takes to winn
The liberal coalition appears to have a born to rule mentality it doesnt matter how incompetent they were and even brandis began trashing of rule of law through the undermining of trigs and admin apeels tribunal the liberals deserve to be in government and labor will stuff up so no need to actualy change
”
gollsays:
Sunday, June 18, 2023 at 11:57 am
“Quasarsays:
Sunday, June 18, 2023 at 10:19 am
Thanks, BK.
Maybe Van thought he could get away with it…Barnaby did.”
And plenty of others!
”
For example, the Porters the Tudges.
this arogents that the liberals are the natural party of government and dont actualy have to listen to the voters and change was best exposed when turnbull nelly lost the 2016 andCrisdifer pine said triying to protend this as a joke it doesnt matter we have been in government for most of the past few decades we had a bad result but were the election winning machine
emagin the out rage if danial andrews or a labor leader appointed them selves to secrit ministries and the one desition they made was found to be illegal re pep 11 or one of his ministers when sacked for breaching the ministearial code became a payed lobeyist helping there mates getget meetings with ministers they would be forced out of politics with in days ashame Riichardson who is responsibble for nsw labor being out of power for a decade still ispontificates and tries to tell others what to do on sky news and 2gb so we should liston to the bloke that gave us obid and dastyari
hopefuly news corp hack Semantha maiden can consider her job after helping to break higgins story then turning on higgins running cover for laming and lehrmann it is not great ethicks to break a story then trash the person who trusted you wonder if they will ask cash any tough questions at least now andrews is back somyureck has faided from the media and now is a irelivant cros bencher mp
Catprog: “Gee that Max Chandler-Mather sounds terrible.”
Red herring.
It makes him a hypocrite. It is literally a criticism of him in exactly the portfolio he holds for his political party. He didn’t care about social housing. He cared about not enough green spaces for his electorate as a justification for rejecting the reclamation of disused industrial space for 1300 dwellings.
Meanwhile, back at the ranch; Blocking $10B worth of social housing.
Naughty residents and their increased traffic! 😆
I can just see Max C-M campaigning at the next election for no more cars, public transport or trucks on the streets of Griffith! 😆
Max says no..
”
Late Risersays:
Sunday, June 18, 2023 at 1:08 pm
A longtime producer for Tucker Carlson is out at Fox News after he was deemed responsible for the on-air headline that referred to President Joe Biden as a “wannabe dictator” because of the indictment of former president Donald Trump.
…
It was during the last minutes of Carlson’s former time slot on Tuesday when the message appeared under separate onscreen boxes that showed Biden and Trump talking. It read: “Wannabe dictator speaks at the White House after having his political rival arrested.”
Carlson, in a Twitter monologue posted on Thursday, said “the women who run the network panicked” about the post and scolded the person responsible.
…
[Carlson’s “long time producer”, McCaskill] said that a room at Fox set aside for employees to pump breast milk was a “waste of space” and should be replaced with a room for men to tan their testicles, according to the lawsuit.
https://www.brisbanetimes.com.au/world/north-america/fox-news-producer-behind-biden-wannabe-dictator-headline-fired-20230617-p5dhbx.html
That the toxic stew at Fox includes this level of misogyny isn’t news. But what may be interesting is that Carlson and McCaskill were both fired. Coupled with Dutton’s response to allegations about Mr Van’s behaviour, perhaps, just maybe, the Overton Window has started moving back. It’s a hopeful thought, though probably naive.
”
Yes, naive!
I’ve never seen this guy before, so good chance he has been cancelled for some heretical belief, but I found this really, really interesting and a good summary of much of my thinking.
Although he didn’t point out that the main reason oil has such a huge ROI, is that the supply is controlled by a cartel who are explicitly seeking to exploit us, any who, other than failing to point out that the fantastic ROI for oil is based on the opposite of competition I think he does really really well:
https://youtu.be/3gSzzuY1Yw0
Also makes a perfect case for Govt ownership of renewable assets, providing very cheap power to power the rest of the economy, starting now (well 20 years ago if we listened to the science, but we still very much are not doing that today), but that will be too far to the left for the average far far right mind here.
Ballantyne
I think you get the jist of what I am saying
Can’t say as I disagree with any of that WWP. Right up to the commentary.
In Oz two state grids are public owned; WA and QLD. Sadly, that might also have led to them not making the investment they should have 10 years ago. But spilt milk. As a federal body they can commit to projects that private companies can’t. They work on longer timelines. And then there is the re-establishment of the SEC in Vic.
It might even turn out that the mix between these systems in Oz will be the most successful model for the transition. For the largest energy exporter in the world, it is fast and getting faster. South Australia is a model (not a green in sight fwiw). The challenge for climate change won’t be us getting off the FF though. It will be in exporting that energy in both expertise and fuels made from renewables. And that is gonna take a while.
That will be resisted every step of the way by the FF producers. I just think their obsolescence is imminent regardless of what they do. Cars are going electric. In five years their petrol stations will have 20% less business if they’re lucky. That means consolidation and “creative destruction”. The last ones get the bill for cleaning up the waste.
‘No more townhouses!’?!
‘Protect our backyards’ … we’ve already cleared the natural habitat, so why don’t you go do it somewhere else! 😆
“That will be resisted every step of the way by the FF producers. I just think their obsolescence is imminent regardless of what they do. Cars are going electric. In five years their petrol stations will have 20% less business if they’re lucky. That means consolidation and “creative destruction”. The last ones get the bill for cleaning up the waste.”
Govts going hard makes sense on economic grounds, it makes sense on ‘lets stop sending billions to Putin and Gulf State authoritarian rulers’ grounds, on national security and self sufficiency grounds. There are very few losers other than shareholders in oil and gas companies and they’ve had decades to get out, and only greed and a willingness to kill children in the future has kept them invested, so they don’t deserve any sympathy.
”
sprocket_says:
Sunday, June 18, 2023 at 2:10 pm
Max says no..
”
Greens political party especially Max C-M are the biggest NIMBYs.
The chances of People like Max C-M, Rebecca and Catprog voting
Green political party – 1
and LNP – 2
are very high ( say 80-20). 🙂
Ven,
I have seen Greens 1, Liberal 2 votes with my own eyes. Also, Liberal 1, Greens 2.
”
C@tmommasays:
Sunday, June 18, 2023 at 3:09 pm
Ven,
I have seen Greens 1, Liberal 2 votes with my own eyes. Also, Liberal 1, Greens 2.
”
Doesn’t surprise C@tmomma, doesn’t surprise me at all.
In All the Teal seats, people who voted Teals 1 most probably voted for Greens political party 2 and Liberal party 3, whereas ALP voters most probably would have voted ALP 1, Teals 2 Liberals last. They would have voted Greens above Liberals.
I don’t think enough thought has been given to how the transition itself is going to affect geopolitics. I mean, it’s mentioned, but when no one needs oil to fuel their cars, and soon after transport, your income stream is going to contract. A lot. There are so many other examples. That includes gas, but that is still 15 years away if I guessed.
You know the great thing? Australia is not dependent on its gas. Almost all of it is exported. Same thing uranium. And coal. As part of the global response when the screws get tightened because of CC treaties, it will not affect us at all. The volumes of fuel exported will crater, but the amount paid per unit will increase. If your county is dependent upon that very expensive fuel, that will suck. That will affect the non diversified energy exporters hardest if you’re both an exporter and dependent upon the fuel. If you’re Oz, you’re golden. Win win.
The lucky country.
I just caught up with the Insiders episode and it was far better than usual. The three women panel was thoughtful and balanced. Patricia Karvalas was good.
What was annoying was when the Bridget McKenzie interview (aka the truth abridged) turned to infrastructure Mckenzie mentioned the $9 billion in projects cut by Labor without mentioning that they were all rorted projects that were either ineligible or illegally approved.
And what’s even better, Australia is going to be supplying Renewable Energy to countries who don’t have the space to generate enough of their own.