In an otherwise thin week for polling, the annual survey on Australians’ attitudes to international issues by the Lowy Institute offers its usual panoply of insights, perhaps the most interesting of which is that concern about China and war over Taiwan, while high, is not actually more so than it was a year ago. Key points:
• An unchanged 64% rate “a military conflict between the United States and China over Taiwan” as a critical threat, behind “cyberattacks from other countries” on 68%, up four from last year. The critical threat rating from Russian foreign policy has eased from 68% to 57%. After a sharp deterioration between 2018 and 2022, there was a nine-point drop in those who saw China as more as a security threat and an eleven-point increase as more of an economic partner, now at 52% and 44% respectively. Sixty-one per cent expected China would have a more important and powerful role as world leader in a decade’s time, whereas 22% felt the same of the US, which 32% expected to become less powerful and important.
• Forty-nine per cent rate that AUKUS will make Australia more safe, down three on less year; 9% less safe, up two; and 23% make no difference, up one. Sixty-seven per cent favoured the acquisition of nuclear-powered submarines, down three, with opposition up three to 31%. However, 40% favoured a defence strategy that protected Australia close to home against 26% for one that deterred potential enemies far from Australia’s shores. Fifty-six per cent felt Australia should remain neutral in the event of military conflict between the US and China, up five on last year, while 42% felt Australia should support the US, down four.
• Fifty-seven per cent favoured allowing the United States to base military forces in Australia, down six on last year, with 42% opposed, up six. Corresponding figures for the United Kingdom were 67% and 32%. There was a nine-point drop among those rating the importance of the US alliance to Australian security as very important to 51%, but this was a reversion to the mean after a spike last year, with the fairly important rating up four to 31%. Seventy-three per cent felt the US was more respected in the world under Joe Biden against 24% for Donald Trump.
• The most trusted global powers were Japan, the United Kingdom and France, with combined results of “a great deal” and “somewhat” of 79% to 85%, which are approximately the reverse of the results for China and Russia. The United States’ rating is down four points on last year to 61%, putting it about equal with India and a little ahead of Indonesia, but still well above where it was under the Trump administration. A question on “Australia’s best friend in Asia” records India spiking from 7% last year to 16%, though Japan remains far ahead of the field on 44%.
• In response to a question on confidence in world leaders, the field was led by Ukrainian President Volodomyr Zelenskky and New Zealand Prime Minister Chris Hipkins who each scored a combined 72% for a lot of confidence and some confidence, though one doubts that the latter’s name recognition is quite that high. Support for military aid to Ukraine was nonetheless down six points to 76% with opposition up eight to 24%, while support for sanctions on Russia was down two to 87% and opposition up three to 12%.
• Twenty-five per cent felt Anthony Albanese had done a very good job on foreign policy, 58% a reasonable job and 15% a poor job. The question was extended to other recent prime ministers, producing neutral ratings for Kevin Rudd and Julia Gillard and net negative ratings for Malcolm Turnbull and, especially, Tony Abbott and Scott Morrison.
• Forty-seven per cent felt an Indigenous Voice would improve Australia’s reputation, 44% that it would make no difference, and 8% that it would damage it.
Two other poll results to relate:
• The West Australian had a Painted Dog Research poll on the Indigenous Voice on Saturday which found 57-43 of WA respondents in favour on a forced response basis, narrowing from 60-40 when the last such poll was conducted in March. The poll had a sample of 1050, with field work dates not specified.
• This week’s federal voting intention numbers from Roy Morgan have Labor’s lead out to 57-43, from 56-44 last week, with primary votes of Labor 36.5% (up one-and-a-half), Coalition 34% (up half) and Greens 13% (steady).
Other news that does not relate to the three looming by-elections, which I am holding back for a post on Friday, when candidates will be declared for the federal by-election in Fadden and the Western Australian state by-election in Rockingham:
• Victorian Senator David Van’s exile from the Liberal Party put the numbers in the chamber at Coalition 32, Labor 26, Greens 11, One Nation two, Jacqui Lambie Network two, United Australia Party one, and independents three. Greg Brown of The Australian reports Van “plans on remaining in parliament until his Senate term is up in 2025 and will consider contesting the next election as an independent”, and that he will not consider joining One Nation or the United Australia Party.
• Rachel Eddie of The Age reports that Russell Broadbent, 72-year-old veteran Liberal member for the West Gippsland seat of Monash, faces a preselection challenge from Mary Aldred, head of government relations for Asia Pacific at Fujitsu and daughter of the late Ken Aldred, member for various federal seats from 1975 to 1996. While her father was a figure of some controversy, Mary Aldred is reportedly “viewed as a moderate”, in common with Broadbent.
• Linda Silmalis of the Daily Telegraph reports Sutherland Shire mayor Carmelo Pesce is rated the front-runner to succeed Scott Morrison in Cook, with a general view that Morrison is likely to pull the plug later in the year.
• Katina Curtis of The West Australian argues school holidays and football finals mean the date for the referendum can be narrowed down to October 14, November 4 and November 25, with the former most likely as the November dates are complicated by that month’s APEC conference.
Sohar @ #41 Thursday, June 22nd, 2023 – 9:51 am
Garbage.
Ven @ #34 Thursday, June 22nd, 2023 – 9:38 am
It goes to nath’s overriding motive, Ven. Destroy Labor.
Although I do have to admit that sometimes he inserts a soupcon of recognition for a good Labor policy. You’ve got to look hard for it though. 😆
There are some terrible trots in the NSW Greens…
”
C@tmommasays:
Thursday, June 22, 2023 at 9:00 am
Also, I can add that Chris Bowen comes from very humble stock. His parents were ’10 Pound Poms’ who settled in Western NSW and his father delivered the mail. Sure, his father was UK Labour, red in tooth and claw, but it was Chris’ intelligence that saw him advance in NSW Labor.
Honestly, this Rufus character is great at broad brush generalisations, and abuse, but very poor at research.
”
I think Rufus is another avatar of Lars. I think Griff hinted at that. 🙂
Cat
“I don’t think Australians trust France more and the US less, BECAUSE of AUKUS. ”
No, and I didn’t say that either. I’m pointing out a difference between the attitude of the decision makers, and the attitude of the majority of the population.
“ I don’t think Australians trust France more and the US less, BECAUSE of AUKUS. ”
America has picked us up ‘for free’. I don’t blame Biden for taking advantage of us.
‘We’ are to blame. By ‘we’ I mean the Canberra establishment. Lock stock and barrel.
Edited to add:
This whole “France” vs “America” is a ScoMo construct.
Before ScoMo did the dirty, the Attack Class program was very much a joint Australian-French-American program. In fact the american weapons systems we will be getting under AUKUS are exactly the same as what we were going to get with the Attack class.
We have blown that joint relationship up to s chase the Brits – whose nuclear submarine program has been a rolling omnishables, verging on catastrophic doe much of the last 50 years.
Madness.
”
”
As Tony Abbott said”Sh*t happens “.
Rich people are more important than poor people. And who asked those boat people to crowd like that on boat.
If they were travelling to Australia, they would have been transferred to Nauru lond time ago before they were drowned. 🙁
C@tmomma says:
It goes to nath’s overriding motive, Ven. Destroy Labor.
__________
And I would have gotten away with it too, if it wasn’t for C@tmomma, Shaggy, Scooby Doo and the rest of those meddling kids.
Oops! Late to the party this morning. Answering this from last night …
Nicko @ #1876 Wednesday, June 21st, 2023 – 11:28 pm
I don’t disapprove of mining minerals for renewables. It is necessary but not sufficient. I do strongly disapprove of thinking this is enough of a contribution, or that it allows us to continue extracting fossil fuels. Which, if you listen to Finkel, you find he supports.
Further to my last post: whenever I make the point about the Attack class being a joint Australian-American-France programme, full of all the American technology goodies, C@t then runs this arguement:
“But AUKUS is more than submarines, it’s AI technology…” etc.
But we dont need the subs to access that. In fact we were doing THAT with the Americans well before. Hence our involvement in programs like the JSF, the Ghost-bat Loyal Wingman, Global Hawk, surveillance satellites and so on and so forth. What the fuck do we need ‘Global Britain’ for? Brexit Britain is just circling the drain. If anything, keeping a tier one link to the European aerospace and defence systems via a program like the French subs makes even MORE sense.
Apparently, the key to destroying a major political party that has existed for over 130 years is to say some moderately critical things about them on the internet.
The whole rent freeze situation is now just frustrating, and both Labor and the Greens need to put their differences aside and work out a way through.
The Greens need to pass HAFF having gotten the crucial urgent $2bn; at the same time, federal Labor’s intransigence about offering renters nothing is exceptionally frustrating. Renters need Labor and the Greens to both come to the party and hash out some kind of compromise so renters aren’t caught in an interparty pissing contest, and I don’t really see an upside to continuing to tie the lack of outcomes on that front to the success at obtaining better outcomes on the social housing front.
The Broadbent challenge is an interesting one, and would be good for both parties to have more open primaries/pre-selections especially against incumbents.
Seems like a closed shop most of the time. Has the AEC and NSWEC ever explored “jungle primaries” to open up to all candidates even if they are from the same party. A Labor vs Labor or Liberal vs Liberal contest might yield better results for the specific community than a wipe out either way.
Yabba put together a fine list, although not much diversity toward the back end with many working for Labor linked law firms and too many lawyers in general. Which is a problem the Libs have too with firms like Mallesons.
Don’t know if having an army of lawyers and solicitors in caucus adds to a diversity of opinion, and probably affirms for most of the public the untrustworthiness of politicians if their prior stock and trade was as a lawyer.
Dr Gordon Reid seems like an interesting guy. Get some strong Elizabeth Warren vibes from him both professionally and politically.
“Keating once said Australia is danger of becoming “Banana republic “. I really never understood that because Australia is a “Constitutional Monarchy” like Britain.”
“Banana Republic” was a term applied in the US to failing Caribbean and latin American states in the interwar period.
The term has its origins in the overwhelming economic destruction wrought but US capital buying plantations, particularly fruit plantations, in these countries. The plantations were made exceptionally profitable by suppressing wages to subsistence levels, backed by a menacing US military presence. Finance and capital ownership crushed these countries under a combination of debt burdens and low income, such that their ability to develop secondary and tertiary sectors – with their commensurate high-wage jobs – was suffocated.
E.g. see Haiti.
Ven 10.04am
“Keating once said Australia is (in) danger of becoming (a) “Banana republic ”
And “credit where credit is due”, the Liberal/National Federal governments, over a succession of different PMs and Coalition governments have “gone out of their way”, (sometimes with the cooperation of the Greens, Democrats and occasional independents) to achieve the “banana” without the Republic.
The result was the elevation of the multi-titled, multi tasking, multi faceted, multi disingenuous, multi equiviable, and dishonest on many levels, Morrison PM, the man responsible for the “banana” in the non republic .
The “banana peeling” PM sits in Parliament and collects his coins without a hint of remorse.
Australia has slipped on Morrison’s banana peel.
Holy heck. Geoff Lemon went there.
Geoff Lemon is Guardian Australia’s cricket correspondent and journo. I used to read his blog way back in the Gillard days when he occasionally got political (but mostly wrote about literature). Since his rise as a cricket journo, he has stayed pretty much on script. But today he has an article that directly points the finger at “extreme fringe” elements in Australia’s media that used the Langer departure to go after Cummins and his apparent political correctness.
https://www.theguardian.com/sport/2023/jun/21/cricket-pat-cummins-answers-critics-with-one-of-great-ashes-captain-displays
“Renters need Labor and the Greens to both come to the party and hash out some kind of compromise so renters aren’t caught in an interparty pissing contest, and I don’t really see an upside to continuing to tie the lack of outcomes on that front to the success at obtaining better outcomes on the social housing front.”
Labor looks after the landlords the renters are on their own.
Rebecca says:
Thursday, June 22, 2023 at 10:35 am
The whole rent freeze situation is now just frustrating, and both Labor and the Greens need to put their differences aside and work out a way through.
The Greens need to pass HAFF having gotten the crucial urgent $2bn; at the same time, federal Labor’s intransigence about offering renters nothing is exceptionally frustrating. Renters need Labor and the Greens to both come to the party and hash out some kind of compromise so renters aren’t caught in an interparty pissing contest, and I don’t really see an upside to continuing to tie the lack of outcomes on that front to the success at obtaining better outcomes on the social housing front.
_________________________________________
The Greens are acting like they are the official opposition. That is, they are grandstanding for political advantage.
There are two separate issues here which the Greens have rolled into one – supply of housing and the price of renting. While there is a one way relationship between supply and pricing (that is, the more supply the cheaper the price) in all other respects they are separate.
This is not even the perfect being the enemy of the good; it is political advantage being the enemy of the people the Greens are purporting to help. Tenancies are not within the Commonwealth remit in any way, shape or form and, of all State matters are the least susceptible to Commonwealth intervention because of the multiplicity of renters, landlords and circumstances of each lease.
If anyone is to come to the table it is the Greens, who need to stop grandstanding and pass the legislation.
WeWantPaul says:
Thursday, June 22, 2023 at 10:47 am
Labor looks after the landlords the renters are on their own.
___________________________________
Rexplaining bullshit. Read less Rex and start thinking on your own.
“If anyone is to come to the table it is the Greens, who need to stop grandstanding and pass the legislation.”
All the political incentives are for them to grandstand, they aren’t very good at it, but it is all they have for as long as they are determined to be a very small left wing elite club.
Victoria @ Thursday, June 22, 2023 at 8:48 am
Average house price in Vancouver is over $1.3 million Canadian dollars which is about $1.5 million Australian dollars.
https://wowa.ca/vancouver-housing-market
Last time I checked (2022) the median house price in Auckland was higher than Sydney. Osaka is even more expensive.
The other cities are generally not far behind, and you know why? Because people want to live in those cities.
“Rexplaining bullshit. Read less Rex and start thinking on your own.”
Well it may or may not be similar to what rex says, it is also aligned with Keatings observation and conclusion on just how far to the right the ALP is, conclusions I drew myself before I heard Keatings very strong concurrence.
As for one of the dedicated koolaid drinking campfollowers telling me I need to think for myself – hilarious made my morning.
Dandy Murray @ #63 Thursday, June 22nd, 2023 – 10:12 am
Ahhhhh, but they made up for it after the war when the US, World Bank and IMF blamed these countries for their own malaise, insisting that the only way out of their problems was privatise any and all public institution – preferably to foreign ownership, open the doors to international capital – including capital flight, introduce further neoliberal reforms and austerity, and eliminate all trade barriers and protections. And make sure you pay off your debt (even tho the debt was huge amounts of money that went to corrupt leaders and oligarchs who sent it offshore – as Chomsky said, no more the debt of the poor country that it was the debt of the man on the moon). And if you tried to do anything differently, have a look at what we did (at the very least supported and encouraged what happened) to Chile.
Team Katich
The West Australian, which campaigned hard for Langer, has a piece from him today praising Cummins.
Not what they were saying last year.
I also liked the article linked by BK earlier where Khawaja rejoices in the team being treated like adults.
England has Bazball. Australia has Cummins and an almost invisible coach.
Cricket would seem better for both.
Rossmcg @ #73 Thursday, June 22nd, 2023 – 10:37 am
I would like to examine how that might or might not relate to the NSW Rugby League team….. but I wont. Other than to say; coaches matter, their quality matters. But yes, like a good umpire or ref, their quality should be seen by its invisibility.
Solid analysis from David Speers re the HAFF:
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2023-06-22/greens-playing-politics-housing-bill-double-dissolution/102505478
I’m increasingly of the opinion that the Greens have wedged themselves on this issue. Unlike some here, I didn’t bemoan their attempts to force stronger action on housing nor do I expect the crossbench to just waive through government legislation, but once it got to the point where it was this bill or nothing, they should have voted for the bill, especially once the government threw some genuine concessions their way. It’s a disappointing and cynical decision from the Greens, and one with real potential to backfire on them electorally.
“It’s a very disappointing and cynical decision from the Greens, and one with the real potential to backfire on them electorally.”
Definitely dissappointing and 100% cynical (like pretty much everything they do) and on the electoral outcome you might be right, while their core is as calcified as labor or lib, their vote is seriously padded out with protest votes that are at risk.
But I don’t think they care as long as they get a few senators onto the gravy train it seems mission accomplished.
One in every 20 Territorians is homeless.
The Greens are blocking the billion in the HAFF to be allocated specifically to Indigenous housing.
The Indigenous allocation would not stop Indigenous people accessing the 35,000 houses. Logically, a ‘disproportionate’ amount of that social housing would go to Indigenous people.
To add icing to the cake, the Greens would block the 800 defence houses in the NT if they could.
All so the Greens can astroturf some rental votes. Sordid. Squalid. Shameless.
Mind you, I still think fighting an early double-dissolution centred primarily around the HAFF would be a very bad idea
I see that Albanese has asked for legal advice on a DD.
Will he repeat Rudd’s mistake?
If I was stuck between Justin Langer and Sunil Gavaskar, and the chips on their shoulders, in a confined space, I would hit the ejector button.
Why the Voice SHOULD advise parliament on parking fines.
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2014/sep/23/death-in-custody-over-unpaid-parking-fines-independent-inquiry-urged
Team Katich
100 per cent on coaches. Particularly with cricket.
I like to use the example of Collingwood (dangerous i know).
McRae would likely never got the gig under Eddie. Not nearly high enough a profile.
When you see him he’s almost embarrassed at the success.
And Eddie is replaced by a president who is hardly ever seen or heard.
Players having fun, winning.
It’s amazing how rusted on the 10% of Greens voters are. This 10% seem to have little care achieving positive outcomes. But then again, lots of Greens voters are hypocritical anti-development boomer NIMBYs who will be mightly happy that a public/social housing construction program won’t go ahead.
Blinken went to China to talk.
China humiliates him… no red carpet, inferior seating arrangements, etc, etc, etc.
US response?
Biden reminds everyone what they know already: Xi is a dictator.
China response?
Xi spits chips.
What do you think the average boomer NIMBY Greens member would say if a public or social housing development were to be constructed their their house – a big fat NO!
Why the Voice SHOULD advise Parliament on parking fines:
http://nationalunitygovernment.org/content/cairns-grandma-held-custody-police-over-20-parking-fine-22-years-ago
It would be great if the South Australian Court of Appeal published all of the submissions. I would like to see how specific the HRLC will be in addressing each of the charges and the application of whistleblower provisions to those charges.
“Christopher Knaus
Human rights lawyers will intervene in the case of Richard Boyle, the tax office whistleblower, as he appeals a landmark decision to deny him whistleblower protections.
The South Australian district court ruled that Boyle was not protected by the Public Interest Disclosure Act for actions he took to collect evidence in preparation for blowing the whistle on his employer’s aggressive pursuit of debts.
The case was considered the first major test of the nation’s whistleblowing laws and experts say it revealed deficiencies in the protections.
Boyle has appealed to the state’s supreme court. His appeal is due to be heard in August.
The Human Rights Law Centre announced on Thursday that it had been granted leave to involve itself in the appeal as amicus curiae, or a friend of the court. That allows it to make submissions on the critical issues in the appeal.
HRLC senior lawyer Kieran Pender said:
Richard Boyle’s appeal will determine the strength of protections for all Australian whistleblowers, given similar provisions exist in almost all Australian whistleblower protection laws. It is a vitally important test case with significant implications for truth and transparency in this country.
Labor has committed to reforming the PID act to better protect whistleblowers.”
The cruel irony is that if the Greens vote for Labor’s social housing policy they could lose some votes to independents. Not because the Greens would have sold out- but because as soon as a social housing project is proposed near their house they will be upset, blame the Greens for bringing unwanted development to their area and vote for a NIMBY independent instead.
World’s most livable cities, 2023.
1. Vienna
2. Copenhagen
3. Melbourne
4. Sydney
5. Vancouver
6. Zurich
7. Calgary
8. Geneva
9. Toronto
10. Osaka (tied)
10. Auckland (tied)
(Source: The Economist Intelligence Unit)
The Shovel
Anthony Albanese has offered Australia’s assistance in the OceanGate rescue, with an Aukus submarine expected at the site in 2045
Boerwarsays:
Thursday, June 22, 2023 at 11:18 am
I see that Albanese has asked for legal advice on a DD.
Will he repeat Rudd’s mistake?
No
(Which of Rudd’s mistakes)
I agree that the Greens have got themselves into a bit of a bind by not immediately agreeing HAFF after the $2bn of urgent funding was added, and I really think they should. It was a reasonable compromise position on social housing.
But I’m not sure Labor understands how offputting it is to renters of the non-rusted-on-Labor-voter persuasion to keep saying “your issues are not our problem in any way and the suggestion that we should help you is laughable”. I’m not wedded to the Greens’ proposal – but Labor isn’t even pretending to offer anything to counter it in trying to punt it to the states. (Nor is it appreciated that some Labor types think renters must be too stupid to know that there are a myriad of ways for the Commonwealth to leverage their power on issues where the legislative responsibility lies largely with the states, and that national cabinet effectively exists to work through issues of that nature.)
S. Simpson: Tell that to my NIMBY local Labor councillors who voted down social housing (that the Greens councillors supported), to the open public frustration of the Andrews Government.
Strange comment from Speers given the immediacy of the $2B ‘housing accelerator’ funding rushed out by Labor thanks to pressure from the terrible trots.
Those terrible trots blocking social housing by wanting more social housing and rental relief.
Team Katich @ #65 Thursday, June 22nd, 2023 – 10:47 am
Thanks for the link.
https://www.theguardian.com/sport/2023/jun/21/cricket-pat-cummins-answers-critics-with-one-of-great-ashes-captain-displays
That’s nicely put. It’s why “the boys” cricket lost a fan, who in the women’s game found something different and fun. Perhaps Cummins has brought fun back to the men’s game. Perhaps it’s time to find that fan again.
Marjorie Taylor Greene Calls Boebert a ‘Little Bitch’ on the House Floor
A feud has been boiling between Marjorie Taylor Greene and Lauren Boebert for months. It finally reached a new level on Wednesday.
The messy feud between two of MAGA world’s biggest stars burst into public view on Wednesday, when Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene (R-GA) called Rep. Lauren Boebert (R-CO) a “little bitch” to her face on the floor of the U.S. House of Representatives.
The angry exchange came as the two lawmakers have been swiping at each other over their competing resolutions to impeach President Joe Biden. But tensions came to a head on Wednesday after Boebert leveraged a procedural tool to force a vote on her own impeachment resolution within days—undercutting Greene, who had offered her own resolution, but not with the procedural advantages of forcing a vote.
https://www.thedailybeast.com/marjorie-taylor-greene-calls-boebert-a-little-bitch-on-the-house-floor
Rightly or wrongly, the Greens won’t suffer for their stance on the HAFF. The number of people affected is so tiny, it’s just not a vote-shifter. And any votes that might be shifted won’t be in areas the Greens target.
And as for it being a double dissolution trigger, that won’t happen either unless Albanese takes leave of his senses. He can’t practically call a DD this year, because the Voice referendum is in the way, and he’s free to call a half-senate election in the second half of next year. At a half-senate election Labor would be almost certain to gain a senator in Queensland, whereas a DD would produce a result of the gods only know. So there’s only a small window of three or four months early next year where a DD would make any sense, and then only if Labor is so keen to take advantage of a huge lead in the polls they’re willing to risk a worse Senate than they have now.
Number 11 on the list was probably Alice Springs
Rebecca
‘But I’m not sure Labor understands how offputting it is to renters of the non-rusted-on-Labor-voter persuasion to keep saying “your issues are not our problem in any way and the suggestion that we should help you is laughable”.’
Which Labor is not doing, given that it has already made some positive moves for renters and sources have made it clear that there are more in the pipeline.
And, at State level – where the real action needs to be – the problems of airbnb regulation appear to be being tackled.