Essential Research 2PP+: Labor 52, Coalition 42 (open thread)

Essential’s voting intention numbers still look rosy for Labor, but with troubling signs for them beneath the surface.

The latest fortnightly voting intention numbers from Essential Research, which include a 6% undecided component (up one on last time), show Labor recovering a primary vote lead by holding steady at 32% while the Coalition drops two to 30%, with the Greens also down two to 14% and One Nation up two to 7%. The pollster’s 2PP+ measure is unchanged with Labor 52% and the Coalition on 42%, although the vagaries of rounding means undecided gains a point to 6%.

The report also features its month leader favourability ratings, which differ from its more conventional monthly leadership ratings in having respondents rate the leaders on a scale of zero to ten. This provides further evidence with a downturn for Anthony Albanese, whose positive rating (for ratings of between seven and ten) is down five to 36%, with neutral (four to six) up two to 32% and negative (zero to three) up three to 27%. Peter Dutton’s positive rating is up four to 27%, recovering from a three-point dip last time, with neutral down two to 32% and negative down one to 34%.

Perhaps relatedly, a monthly read of the national mood, in which respondents are asked if the country is on the right or wrong track, records a pronounced worsening in sentiment, with wrong track up nine on last month to 47% and right track down eight to 33%. This is comfortably the worst result shown on an accompanying chart going back to February 2022, which shows a surge of positive sentiment after the government came to power last May that has now worn off entirely.

A suite of questions on government action on economic issues find substantial majorities saying the government is not doing enough to relieve cost-of-living pressures (75%), ensuring affordable and secure rentals (69%) and ensuring a fair income tax system (48%). The government scores better, but not overwhelmingly positive, on a corresponding set of questions about environmental issues. A head-to-head question on whether parliament works better with minor parties and independents holding the balance of power produced a statistical tie of 51% no and 49% for yes.

The poll was conducted Wednesday to Sunday from a sample of 1148.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,416 comments on “Essential Research 2PP+: Labor 52, Coalition 42 (open thread)”

Comments Page 5 of 29
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  1. It’s good to note that Labor’s standing a candidate in Fadden, where even a small swing will make Dutton’s tenure all the more tenuous, particularly given the result in Aston. And given the allegations against Robert, it may not be a small swing.

  2. Rex Douglassays:
    Wednesday, June 28, 2023 at 1:40 pm
    The Labor government spends over $10b of public money every year subsidising the burning of fossil fuels. That’s how far we are from a genuine climate response in Australia. Labor remains captured by fossil fuel interests but surely they’ll get mugged by reality at some point pic.twitter.com/T7fTFeRUVe— Nick McKim (@NickMcKim) June 28, 2023

    I think not even reality will shift Labor from their relationship with fossil fuels

    Sorry Rex but this in not true. this includes 7 billion rebate for tax paid on fuel. This tax is a road user charge. considering farmers and mining companies are using this fuel to drive on their own roads not public roads they are being charged for a service they are not using. Who do the greens think they are AMP?

  3. The Australian government collects over $13 billion a year net from fossil fuel taxes.
    That goes into roads maintenance. But it is not enough to maintain roads.
    The amount is reducing over time as cars become more efficient and do EV.

  6. The Swift Parrot is being logged into extinction. Less than 1000 birds remain, yet Forestry Tasmania is destroying critical habitat. Thanks to Rob Blakers for fighting so hard to save this beautiful little bird. https://t.co/C3imqCilrE— Nick McKim (@NickMcKim) June 27, 2023

    Ban native forest destruction !

  10. Shades of “1984” in the name of the gambling industry lobby group:

    The gambling industry’s peak body, Responsible Wagering Australia, has criticised the recommended advertising ban as “shortsighted and ineffective”. RWA represents some of the biggest gambling companies in the country.
    (Guardian updates at 11:41)

  11. The Age 28/06
    Integrity expert Geoffrey Watson, SC, said those responsible for the Lawyer X saga may never be brought to justice while Daniel Andrews leads Victoria.
    _____________________
    He was brutal on 774 this morning. The DPP and the Andrews Govt got a nice old serve.

  12. “The gambling industry’s peak body, Responsible Wagering Australia, has criticised the recommended advertising ban as “shortsighted and ineffective”. RWA represents some of the biggest gambling companies in the country.
    (Guardian updates at 11:41)”

    If it is ineffective, then nothing for RWA to worry about. 🙂

  15. Taylormade says:
    Wednesday, June 28, 2023 at 2:38 pm
    The Age 28/06
    Integrity expert Geoffrey Watson, SC, said those responsible for the Lawyer X saga may never be brought to justice while Daniel Andrews leads Victoria.
    _____________________
    He was brutal on 774 this morning. The DPP and the Andrews Govt got a nice old serve.
    ————————————
    LOL Taylormade

  16. Taylormade:

    Wednesday, June 28, 2023 at 2:38 pm

    The Age 28/06

    Integrity expert Geoffrey Watson, SC, said those responsible for the Lawyer X saga may never be brought to justice while Daniel Andrews leads Victoria.
    _____________________
    [‘He was brutal on 774 this morning.’]

    Victoria’s DPP Judd, a statutory, independent office holder, has made her decision. That’s where it should end.

  17. Meanwhile from the Guardian Australia

    Bill Shorten details timeline regarding Stuart Robert allegations

    Back to the NDIS minister, Bill Shorten, who spoke in Canberra on allegations involving the outgoing member for Fadden, Stuart Robert.

    Shorten was asked if this is the first time he has been made aware of the allegations related to United Marketing.

    That is the first time I’ve seen a signed statement today. As I detail, there has been several reports I’ve given to parliament. There has been a string of leaked emails. I don’t know if there has been a reference to United marketing in an earlier email, there are quite a lot of them. It is clear that they will be checking whether or not these contracts and a relationship with Synergy360 have been done properly.

  18. The inflation data released today is for the year until the end of May

    The government has been in Office since May of last year

    What the government is overseeing is a reduction in inflation from the levels of 12 months and more ago

    The May figure is the smallest increase in over 12 months, continuing a downturn trend and coming in less than the predicted 6.1% and less than our peer Nations (where we saw interest rate rises of 0.5% in the UK and other European Nations last week)

    I wonder what red flag Dutton will wave now given he stated that Albanese was not addressing inflation instead focussing on the upcoming referendum

    Inflation is being addressed

    The data tells us this (

    The downward trend of inflation to within band will address cost of living pressures including rents (noting these and house prices are a function of markets so willing sellers and willing buyers)

    Plus the government surplus is where it is, the fact the government has a surplus not transitioned to the economy puts downward pressure on inflation

    Still a way to go including because of global pressures which persist but the direction is trending in the right direction in Australia

    The impetus of the China government and the consumer spending and house price data out of the USA is read in context and positive in regard there being no recession as the Central Banks do their work to protect us long term

    I wonder where the criticism of Lowe will wind up now

  19. I’m waiting for another comment from Taylormade about federal politics. Remember Morrison and all those achievements? Now Morrison’s best mate, another right wing religious loon, the HONORABLE Mr Stuart Robert seems to be in a bit of a pickle.

  20. Taylormade says:
    Wednesday, June 28, 2023 at 2:38 pm
    The Age 28/06
    Integrity expert Geoffrey Watson, SC, said those responsible for the Lawyer X saga may never be brought to justice while Daniel Andrews leads Victoria.
    _____________________
    He was brutal on 774 this morning. The DPP and the Andrews Govt got a nice old serve.

    +++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
    Have you visited Tony Mokbel in Barwon Prison?
    He wouldn’t be interned very far from your residence.

  21. Lol here we go again.

    This cycle of inflation was caused by the Russian invasion of Ukraine, which started (escalated relative to the 2014 situation) on 24 February, 2022.

    What were seeing with reducing inflation is happening in other western nations – it’s the 1 year anniversary of Putin’s inflation cycle so the inflation rate drops off, and rate rises are now battling against inflation purely driven by corporate greed with no underlying reason for inflation.

    Albo continue’s the coalition’s economic policies of deterring investment in new electricity generation and tax cuts for the rich that are worsening the inflation situation.

  22. ”
    Granny Annysays:
    Wednesday, June 28, 2023 at 3:06 pm
    I’m waiting for another comment from Taylormade about federal politics. Remember Morrison and all those achievements? Now Morrison’s best mate, another right wing religious loon, the HONORABLE Mr Stuart Robert seems to be in a bit of a pickle.
    ”

    Appears to be most DISHONOURABLE Mr. Robert. like ‘Talented Mr. Ripley’.

  23. ‘Voice Endeavour says:
    Wednesday, June 28, 2023 at 3:11 pm

    Lol here we go again.

    This cycle of inflation was caused by the Russian invasion of Ukraine, which started (escalated relative to the 2014 situation) on 24 February, 2022.

    What were seeing with reducing inflation is happening in other western nations – it’s the 1 year anniversary of Putin’s inflation cycle so the inflation rate drops off, and rate rises are now battling against inflation purely driven by corporate greed with no underlying reason for inflation.

    Albo continue’s the coalition’s economic policies of deterring investment in new electricity generation and tax cuts for the rich that are worsening the inflation situation.’
    —————————————————–
    I assume this is Greensconomics.

    1. Inflation drivers were corporate greed, supply-side disruption (materials, skills and labour) caused by Putin and Covid, trillions of cash pumped into economies around the world (as per MMT) without compensating increases in either production or productivity, de facto establishment of a form of UBI in Australia, and the unleashing of post-Covid demand wave.

    2. Inflation reduction measures around the world include restrictions on money supply, reductions in public spending, increase in interest rates to suppress demand, and moves to improve the supply disruptions.

    3. The Albanese Government is directly investing billions of public money to improve renewables outcomes.

  26. Cronussays:
    Wednesday, June 28, 2023 at 1:20 pm
    Themunz says:
    Wednesday, June 28, 2023 at 12:21 pm
    Cronussays:
    Wednesday, June 28, 2023 at 12:13 pm

    Thanks for correction.
    ——————————-

    Really just an addition. It goes to show though doesn’t it what a genius decision it was initially by a startup company with first mover foresight. It attracted almost universal flak but has turned out to be a long term money spinner that will benefit Tesla for decades.
    =========================================================

    Yes the products are years ahead but the mindset is at least one leadership rotation ahead. Could be even more.

  27. Ven says:
    Wednesday, June 28, 2023 at 3:33 pm
    Youth unemployment rate in China apparently is 18%. Unemployed Chinese youth are flocking to Temples.

    https://youtu.be/mfl_KAcJQJk
    ———————

    I recall a Bloomberg article yesterday citing Xi suggesting that 12 million young, unemployed, recent university graduates would be best returning to rural villages and farming. I bet that advice was well accepted.

  28. The breaching of the Dnipro River in the South Kherson region at the location of the badly damaged Antonivka Bridge by approximately 100 Ukrainian infantry in watercraft is proving problematic for Russia. Although this will not allow for the movement of heavy armour, it’s certainly sufficient for the landing of significant amounts of infantry.

    Attempts by Russia to regain the beachhead using aircraft, drones and armour have all failed. This inevitably will require the mobilisation of much larger forces into flooded and difficult areas if Russia is to retake this land. The failure to do so opens up a new route, albeit mostly for infantry initially, to progress towards Crimea.

  29. WWP
    Thanks for the link to the interview with Peter Turchin. Going to have to go to the library and get them to get his books in.

  30. Boerwar

    “Soc
    You can get ten to one on for ‘shortsighted’.”

    I’m backing “effective” for a win. Mug punters listen to the bookies. 😉

  31. Regardless of views on AUKUS and SSN AUKUS, Defence is making good progress in training the prospective RAN crews. This is important if we are to have any kind of sovereign capability. Skilled people are needed for any effective sub option.
    https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zone/first-australian-submariners-set-to-graduate-from-u-s-navys-nuke-school

    There are some interesting comments in this article on the value to the USN of basing US SSNs in Australia, dating back to technical articles written in 2013. Some people have been working on this a long time.

  32. ‘Cronus says:
    Wednesday, June 28, 2023 at 3:48 pm

    Ven says:
    Wednesday, June 28, 2023 at 3:33 pm
    Youth unemployment rate in China apparently is 18%. Unemployed Chinese youth are flocking to Temples.

    https://youtu.be/mfl_KAcJQJk
    ———————

    I recall a Bloomberg article yesterday citing Xi suggesting that 12 million young, unemployed, recent university graduates would be best returning to rural villages and farming. I bet that advice was well accepted.’
    ===================================
    Reported youth unemployment in China has been north of 20% for some time. The sheer amount of effort, sacrifice and family investment to get a young person to a degree is enormous. It won’t be just the 12,000,000 who will be unimpressed.

    China’s overall unemployment rate is reported at being above 5%.

    China has responded with yet another round of pump priming.

    There are around 30 million unsold properties. (Sold properties which are empty…add x millions.)
    China’s inflation rate is between 2% and 3%.

  33. Cronus @ #227 Wednesday, June 28th, 2023 – 3:48 pm

    Ven says:
    Wednesday, June 28, 2023 at 3:33 pm
    Youth unemployment rate in China apparently is 18%. Unemployed Chinese youth are flocking to Temples.

    snip
    ———————

    I recall a Bloomberg article yesterday citing Xi suggesting that 12 million young, unemployed, recent university graduates would be best returning to rural villages and farming. I bet that advice was well accepted.

    I learned of a theory of social history today, which uses historical data and mathematical models to predict periods of stable and unstable politics. “Unstable” politics means revolutions, violence, war, etc. Peter Turchin has a book “End Times : Elites, Counter-Elites and the Path of Political Disintegration”. He’s doing the interview rounds promoting it at the moment. Having listened to just one podcast/interview, and still waiting to read his book, the over production of elites (such as you get when university graduates have nowhere to go) is one of the three conditions that historically leads to trouble. If I remember the podcast, the other two are “youth bulge” (lots of energetic people) and “popular immiseration” (lots of people getting poorer). I gather his thesis is focussed on the USA in particular and “the West” in general, but it also describes the “Arab Spring”, T****’s MAGA crowd driven win in 2016, and other historical events. In that context, is China in trouble?

    Caveat: I haven’t read the book.

  35. ‘Cronus says:
    Wednesday, June 28, 2023 at 3:58 pm

    The breaching of the Dnipro River in the South Kherson region at the location of the badly damaged Antonivka Bridge by approximately 100 Ukrainian infantry in watercraft is proving problematic for Russia. Although this will not allow for the movement of heavy armour, it’s certainly sufficient for the landing of significant amounts of infantry.

    Attempts by Russia to regain the beachhead using aircraft, drones and armour have all failed. This inevitably will require the mobilisation of much larger forces into flooded and difficult areas if Russia is to retake this land. The failure to do so opens up a new route, albeit mostly for infantry initially, to progress towards Crimea.’
    ———————————
    The Russians breached the Dam on 6 June. I assume they breached it on what they their intelligence told them was the likely the start date of the counter offensive. They were out by only a couple of days.

    The breach has gained them three weeks in time downstream of the Dam. It also enabled them to transfer men and material laterally across the Front.

    Will that three weeks be enough to get them through to the Autumn rains?

  36. LR
    The events you list seem barely comparable.
    China has just gone through a period of the greatest wealth gain by the greatest number of individuals in world history.
    Arab Spring may well have been triggered by hunger following a succession of decreased grain production years following systemic falls in winter rainfall.

  37. It appears as though posters are more interested in arguing with each other than engaging with breaking stories…

    Welcome to Poll Bludger.

  39. Cronus @ #228 Wednesday, June 28th, 2023 – 3:58 pm

    The breaching of the Dnipro River in the South Kherson region at the location of the badly damaged Antonivka Bridge by approximately 100 Ukrainian infantry in watercraft is proving problematic for Russia. Although this will not allow for the movement of heavy armour, it’s certainly sufficient for the landing of significant amounts of infantry.

    Attempts by Russia to regain the beachhead using aircraft, drones and armour have all failed. This inevitably will require the mobilisation of much larger forces into flooded and difficult areas if Russia is to retake this land. The failure to do so opens up a new route, albeit mostly for infantry initially, to progress towards Crimea.

    Snake Island 2.0! Slava Ukraini!

  41. We import a heap load of goods from China and will not be importing inflation from them anytime soon.
    Are we in the sweet spot, record export prices and low import prices.
    Could be the basis for good relations:).

  44. I should add, the cycles Turchin described in his podcast stretch over decades. The current cycle that (I think*) he describes in the West started in the late 1970s, and he’s projecting forward to the 2070s. His example of T*****’s win in 2016 is as a measure of a counter-elite using immiseration for power, that is, elites fighting each other. His model apparently also describes the US civil war, and in the UK the War of the Roses.

    When I read about university graduates being asked to go back to the farm, I was reminded of Turchin’s description of university educated job seekers as people escaping poverty, and that without a place to escape to, they contribute to elite overproduction, and eventually, to trouble.

    * I really need to read his book.

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