The latest fortnightly voting intention numbers from Essential Research, which include a 6% undecided component (up one on last time), show Labor recovering a primary vote lead by holding steady at 32% while the Coalition drops two to 30%, with the Greens also down two to 14% and One Nation up two to 7%. The pollster’s 2PP+ measure is unchanged with Labor 52% and the Coalition on 42%, although the vagaries of rounding means undecided gains a point to 6%.
The report also features its month leader favourability ratings, which differ from its more conventional monthly leadership ratings in having respondents rate the leaders on a scale of zero to ten. This provides further evidence with a downturn for Anthony Albanese, whose positive rating (for ratings of between seven and ten) is down five to 36%, with neutral (four to six) up two to 32% and negative (zero to three) up three to 27%. Peter Dutton’s positive rating is up four to 27%, recovering from a three-point dip last time, with neutral down two to 32% and negative down one to 34%.
Perhaps relatedly, a monthly read of the national mood, in which respondents are asked if the country is on the right or wrong track, records a pronounced worsening in sentiment, with wrong track up nine on last month to 47% and right track down eight to 33%. This is comfortably the worst result shown on an accompanying chart going back to February 2022, which shows a surge of positive sentiment after the government came to power last May that has now worn off entirely.
A suite of questions on government action on economic issues find substantial majorities saying the government is not doing enough to relieve cost-of-living pressures (75%), ensuring affordable and secure rentals (69%) and ensuring a fair income tax system (48%). The government scores better, but not overwhelmingly positive, on a corresponding set of questions about environmental issues. A head-to-head question on whether parliament works better with minor parties and independents holding the balance of power produced a statistical tie of 51% no and 49% for yes.
The poll was conducted Wednesday to Sunday from a sample of 1148.
ACT budget…
https://citynews.com.au/2023/act-budget-shows-population-economy-are-set-for-growth/?utm_source=mailpoet&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=canberra-daily-today-s-news-today_7801
More on Rolfe…
https://citynews.com.au/2023/why-rolfe-is-compelled-to-answer-questions/?utm_source=mailpoet&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=canberra-daily-today-s-news-today_7801
Side issue rant and curious about the recent experience of others? I have been trying to tidy up my finances as the EOFY approaches. IT systems seem to be failing everywhere across this dumb brown land…
– tried to pay Engineers Australia fees for a week; their system is down, call not returned
– tried to lodge ATO statement online; could not log in.
– tried to contact ATO to resolve inability to log in; timed out before I could get through; call not returned
– tried to use BPay to ATO instead; bank bounced the request and would not recognise it.
In 2 of 3 problem cases, the problem stemmed from my getting a new phone earlier in the year, since I had last made installments. It seems this disabled the automatic log in features with both my bank and myGov accounts. This is annoying enough, because Apple advertises that when you transfer phones, they copy across all of your credentials. It seems not so for some “security” log ins.
The problem is made worse by the fact that the App error message does not tell you this is the problem, merely that you must set up two-factor identification, when you think you have already done so.
Earth to IT industry: if you can’t make the systems robust, at least give more detailed error messages, or do some road testing of financial Apps before you roll them out.
There was a recent episode of Utopia that was depressingly familiar about an inability to log onto a government website to apply for free solar panels.
Now I know how CentreLink customers felt.
@Tom: Funnily enough a lot of us had talked about Stuart Robert before you arrived, if you cared to scroll up?
@clem: “Not true at all. I hated my lawyer when in the Family court. He wrung every dollar out of me that he could. It’s one of the worst rorting occupations out there. There is a saying, “what’s the difference between a lawyer and a rat? Over time, you can come to like the rat.””
I don’t know why any lawyers go into Family Law, it’s a miserable profession on the whole with by all accounts often the most vindictive and bullying clients and the least able to recognise their own behaviour (including the amount of hours they spend chewing their lawyers’ ears off about their exes and every petty grievance they want the lawyer to do something about). I never went near it. Makes crim law look friendly.
https://youtu.be/4mcLNYcb7b0
Soc,
You could always go Android next time. 😉
Voice Endeavour
Albo continue’s the coalition’s economic policies of … tax cuts for the rich that are worsening the inflation situation.
Tell me more about these tax cuts for the rich. When did they begin? How are they inflationary? I am intrigued.
Shogun says:
Wednesday, June 28, 2023 at 5:20 pm
How are they inflationary? I am intrigued.
They allow tax recipients to buy $30M houses in Sydney for cash. 😉
Just caught up with TPOFs comment at 1245pm.
Yesterday I posted that Albo and the ALP wouldn’t be too concerned with the Essential/ NewsPoll data. Several posters disagreed saying they would need to be wary of further poll results.
TPOF summed it up pretty succinctly today. There’s been a lot of political flak flying around and this shit, pushed by the Merdeoch media and the others is right up Duttons path.
How things can change in 24 hrs.
Inflation is dropping , the Reserve may back off next Tuesday and the changes in the new FY will be positively recieved. Labor can focus on that without Duttons parliamentary dirt. As TPOF says, Labor can work on positive issues where it is most effective and being in Government helps a lot through advertising.
The Morgan Poll really gives little support to those nervous nellies and none whatsoever to Dutton and his gang. Some poster noted today that the combined percentages of the Greens and the Cross each are not far behind the Opposition. I reckon that may create some nervous nellies in the Opposition……
I’m not one…yet.
Lib/nats combined primary vote is under 40% and struggling to stay in the mid 30’s ,
labor governments at federal/state/territory levels are politically safe in government , if anything the lib/nats oppositions are likely to lose more seats at the upcoming elections
Arky wrote,”I don’t know why any lawyers go into Family Law, it’s a miserable profession on the whole with by all accounts often the most vindictive and bullying clients and the least able to recognise their own behaviour (including the amount of hours they spend chewing their lawyers’ ears off about their exes and every petty grievance they want the lawyer to do something about). I never went near it. Makes crim law look friendly.”
Why else do you think they go into it… the money…easy money.
Do stage three start 1 July? Asking for a large group of friends planning european trips.
Late Riser and Boerwar
“ I learned of a theory of social history today, which uses historical data and mathematical models to predict periods of stable and unstable politics. “Unstable” politics means revolutions, violence, war, etc. Peter Turchin has a book “End Times : Elites, Counter-Elites and the Path of Political Disintegration”. He’s doing the interview rounds promoting it at the moment. Having listened to just one podcast/interview, and still waiting to read his book, the over production of elites (such as you get when university graduates have nowhere to go) is one of the three conditions that historically leads to trouble. If I remember the podcast, the other two are “youth bulge” (lots of energetic people) and “popular immiseration” (lots of people getting poorer). I gather his thesis is focussed on the USA in particular and “the West” in general, but it also describes the “Arab Spring”, T****’s MAGA crowd driven win in 2016, and other historical events. In that context, is China in trouble?
Caveat: I haven’t read the book.”
———————————————
That does sound like interesting reading. As BW noted, the youth unemployment rates of 20% have been at this level for a while which I too had noted and that struck me as unsustainable over the medium-long term. The opacity of Chinese society makes it difficult to know what people are really thinking but it also seems as though the high youth unemployment rates along with suggestions of sending educated graduates back to the fields after parents had saved and invested so much in them was a recipe for likely upheaval.
Socrates
There was a recent episode of Utopia that was depressingly familiar about an inability to log onto a government website to apply for free solar panels.
Yes! Quite often when I watch Utopia I have flashbacks to experiences in my own work life.
WeWantPaul @ Wednesday, June 28, 2023 at 5:49 pm:
“Do stage three start 1 July? Asking for a large group of friends planning european trips.”
===============
WWP, they start 1 July, 2024.
https://www.news.com.au/finance/real-estate/renting/renters-utopia-greens-say-vienna-proves-public-housing-can-be-highquality-and-affordable-for-all/news-story/6df55cc046bc18a2a2ac1c4355e4aeb6
DEATH TOLL RISES FROM RUSSIAN ATROCITY IN KRAMATORSK, UKRAINE:
“The death toll in the attack on Kramatorsk has increased to nine. Suspilne, Ukraine’s state broadcaster, reports that as of 10am local time, “the bodies of nine dead people, including three minors, were retrieved from the rubble”.
It goes on to report that the number of wounded has risen to 56 people, according to the latest data from the Donetsk regional prosecutor’s office.
Suspilne reports that “Rescuers continue to clear the rubble, and have rescued seven people, the state emergency service reported. Dog handlers and psychologists also work on site.”
https://www.theguardian.com/world/live/2023/jun/28/russia-ukraine-war-live-kramatorsk-death-toll-rises-nato-to-strengthen-eastern-defences
This includes 3 children (https://www.pravda.com.ua/eng/news/2023/06/28/7408844/).
Time to get the gibbets out ready for some punishment in Red Square, as far as I am concerned. 😡
Enough Already
WWP, they start 1 July, 2024.
So the effect of these future tax cuts on current inflation is retroactive. WeWantPaul – can you explain this phenomenon? Your knowledge of economic matters is obviously far superior to mine. Note however that I do not have Karl Marx or Fidel Castro as guiding philosophers, so I am at a distinct disadvantage in my comprehension of how 2024 tax cuts impact on 2022-2023 CPI.
“Over the past 24 hours, the Russian Federation has lost approximately 930 servicemen, an air defence system, a multiple-launch rocket system, 13 armoured combat vehicles and 6 artillery systems in its war against Ukraine.”
https://www.pravda.com.ua/eng/news/2023/06/28/7408847/
I am so angry at that Russian missile strike on a FAMILY RESTAURANT in Kramatorsk, Ukraine, that I honestly don’t care who has a problem with me grimly cheering every Russian Orc who gets killed invading and occupying Ukraine, where they don’t belong.
227,100 and counting. If their families are upset hearing about this, they can wipe their mouths at the FAMILY RESTAURANT in Russia they are free to hang out at WITHOUT BEING BLOWN TO SMITHEREENS, and go and march on Red Square like the brave souls in Ukraine did against the Putin puppet Yanukovich at the Maidan in 2013-14. Until then, they can choke on their (stolen from Ukraine) borshch as far as I am concerned.
Rant over.
WeWantPaul says:
Wednesday, June 28, 2023 at 5:49 pm
Do stage three start 1 July? Asking for a large group of friends planning european trips.
_______________________________________
Do they know you are a raving left wing loony who will have them put against the wall and shot come the revolution?
Just had a thought that the Stage 3 tax cuts will probably help those people on moderately good incomes, who are hurting paying a big mortgage after the recent interest rate increases. An unintended consequence when Labor voted for them in Opposition but the times are suiting them now as far as they are concerned. 🙂
TPOF @ #180 Wednesday, June 28th, 2023 – 6:24 pm
Who works for one of the biggest capitalist outfits in Perth, as a very well-paid lawyer. 😆
Not relative for the general discussion
But those looking to book flights overseas ,should look at this site was thousands of dollars cheaper than actual site.
https://www.priceline.com/flights/
We’re flying premium economy…..”business just to pricey at the moment
G
Interesting…
‘….
Some poster noted today that the combined percentages of the Greens and the Cross each are not far behind the Opposition. I reckon that may create some nervous nellies in the Opposition……
I’m not one…yet.’
——————————-
The Xbench to a substantial degree cancels itself out. ON is, IMO, polling exceptionally well ATM.
Thanks, Mrmoney. That’s just what I need. 🙂
Arky:
Wednesday, June 28, 2023 at 5:13 pm
[‘I never went near it. Makes crim law look friendly.’]
Indubitably so! Imagine taking instructions from the acetic clem attlee. I’d instantly contract a case of the vapours.
Rex
So if we’re to emulate Vienna, we need to start building housing, not delaying it.
Cat just be aware they are in usd until you change it.
Yeah I’m sure Sogavare is looking forward to that .
Just send a cheque.
Mrmoney,
So have a conversion calculator open in the next tab? 🙂
I’m going to the US next year, so this will be very handy.
C@tmomma says:
I’m going to the US next year
____________
Haven’t the United States suffered enough?
Boerwar 4:18pm
“ The Russians breached the Dam on 6 June. I assume they breached it on what they their intelligence told them was the likely the start date of the counter offensive. They were out by only a couple of days.
The breach has gained them three weeks in time downstream of the Dam. It also enabled them to transfer men and material laterally across the Front.
Will that three weeks be enough to get them through to the Autumn rains?”
—————————————————————
Unfortunately, I suspect it will be enough to get Russia through to the Autumn rains unless there is a large and unexpected breakthrough in the next fortnight by Ukraine which seems unlikely given the lack of air support at this stage. Ukraine will continue to make incremental gains along much of the frontline but they appear insufficient to cause an irreparable rupture through to Melitopol or Berdansk as hoped.
I think the main reason for the unwillingness of Ukraine to commit to a full counteroffensive is due to the combination of well established Russian defences and the dearth of airpower. The danger of unsustainable Ukrainian losses is a risk they may be understandably hesitant to risk at this stage.
This means then that Russia will likely gain a further six months to extend trench works and minefields in the southern oblasts, ensuring the war extends at least into 2025 as some of us suspected even in the early days. This extra time however will also give Ukraine time to complete the training of pilots and delivery of aircraft so it’s not all bad but the inability to gain sufficient momentum will be immensely frustrating for both Ukraine and NATO allies.
zoomster @ #276 Wednesday, June 28th, 2023 – 6:39 pm
Get cracking with the $2B accelerator, scrap S3 and keep building.
But no, Labor is the party of Wall Street.
Cronus @ Wednesday, June 28, 2023 at 6:45 pm:
“I think the main reason for the unwillingness of Ukraine to commit to a full counteroffensive is due to the combination of well established Russian defences and the dearth of airpower. The danger of unsustainable Ukrainian losses is a risk they may be understandably hesitant to risk at this stage”
=============
Cronus, I agree with this. Ukraine is paying the price right now for the US’s procrastination over the fighter jet decision. President Zelenskyy, and many others both within Ukraine and elsewhere, warned about the cost of such delays last year. How right those warnings have proved to be. How pointless the nervous nellies’ ‘escalation BOO!’ objections have proved to be. How long before the US finally recognises reality and bites the bullet on ATACMS?
While we’re on the subject of fighter jets, do you happen to know where we are up to in sending over those F18’s we promised? I haven’t seen, heard or read anything for the past couple of weeks.
Not before time:
[‘The NSW anti-corruption watchdog will be forced to give itself deadlines for publishing the findings of its investigations, in a dramatic intervention on the eve of the release of its long-awaited report into former premier Gladys Berejiklian.
Following sharp criticism of the Independent Commission Against Corruption (ICAC) over the long delay in releasing the findings of its probe into Berejiklian and Daryl Maguire, the NSW government will introduce a new set of laws requiring the watchdog to publish “time standards” for investigations, and then “report on its own performance” against those benchmarks.’]
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/nsw/icac-forced-to-publish-deadlines-amid-criticism-over-berejiklian-probe-20230628-p5dk6n.html
It’s scandalous that McColl has taken over two years to finish her report. Compare this time lag with the Robodebt RC, where Holmes will deliver her findings on July 7 and which was far more complex than that which McColl was faced with.
We’re off to Scotland on the 25/7 for 3.5 weeks come home for 10 days then fly to Toronto…then New York on the 28/8 for 4 weeks so far 16k on air fares .
Wife says no expense spared it’ll cost what it costs I’m trying to budget it for $60k
Don’t like my chances ………..super here we come
Rex
And the Greens can get out of the way.
Cat 4:34pm
“ Snake Island 2.0! Slava Ukraini!”
——————————————-
We can only hope. If sufficient Ukrainian troops can make their way across the Dnipro, Russia must make a choice, commit forces to defend or move troops eastward to bolster Donetsk defences or south to Crimea where they are still at risk of eventually being isolated.
Light and mobile units are a strength to Ukraine in this situation as long as they don’t move beyond artillery and air defence cover (except for special forces operations). In the meantime, continued missile strikes by Ukraine on major logistic hubs in Melitopol, Berdansk and Mariupol and connecting railheads will further exacerbate much needed Russian supplies.
Themunz says:
Wednesday, June 28, 2023 at 4:39 pm
We import a heap load of goods from China and will not be importing inflation from them anytime soon.
Are we in the sweet spot, record export prices and low import prices.
Could be the basis for good relations:).
—————————————
Agreed and we can start by importing more solar panels and EVs from China in exchange for our iron ore and thermal coal.
100 percent. Anthony Albanese’s political career is a story of internal Labor power plays and hilariously inept antics against the Greens. He isn’t a strong advocate for policy proposals.
If the referendum fails it will be mostly his fault.
Perhaps he’ll hone his message on this and his public speaking skills in general. But I think he’d be better off using his platform to highlight more effective public speakers who can do the heavy lifting on the referendum. A guy I went to school with, Dean Parkin, is the Campaign Director for the Yes23 campaign. He’s a more compelling speaker than Anthony Albanese and infinitely more credible on the topic. Let Dean have that air time instead. He’d do more with it.
@Troll: “Yeah I’m sure Sogavare is looking forward to that .
Just send a cheque.”
Melissa Price, is that you?
I mean, between the cheque line about a Pacific island nation and the constant attempts to apply infantile labels to Labor and only Labor, I think we have a winner here.
w` wonder if some of the weaker federal mps will leave those that have not achieved much like graham perit shayne neumann maria vanvackeneu think its also time that plibersec and brendon o and s hortin consider retirement wonder if renalds will be re elected in wa at next senate election after the damage from britney higgins aligations and gallacher is still safe with liberals not being able to come up with any credable evidence she actively asisted higgins in the interview
Shogun,
“So the effect of these future tax cuts on current inflation is retroactive.”
It’s commonly observed that households smooth their consumption in anticipation of changes in income. A future increase in income will be factored into consumption decision now, increasing expenditure.
It’s one of the few bits of economic theory that carries over the the real world.
“A guy I went to school with, Dean Parkin, is the Campaign Director for the Yes23 campaign. He’s a more compelling speaker than Anthony Albanese and infinitely more credible on the topic. Let Dean have that air time instead. He’d do more with it. ”
Hi Dean.
Hope you aren’t taking offence from the constant criticism around here of the Yes campaign. Pretty sure we’d all love it if the Yes campaign called a presser and had a compelling speaker make a pitch, Albo included. He’s the PM, he’s always going to be in the media, but that doesn’t mean other voices can’t be heard.
Nicholas says:
Wednesday, June 28, 2023 at 7:14 pm
100 percent. Anthony Albanese’s political career is a story of internal Labor power plays and hilariously inept antics against the Greens. He isn’t a strong advocate for policy proposals.
If the referendum fails it will be mostly his fault.
Perhaps he’ll hone his message on this and his public speaking skills in general. But I think he’d be better off using his platform to highlight more effective public speakers who can do the heavy lifting on the referendum. A guy I went to school with, Dean Parkin, is the Campaign Director for the Yes23 campaign. He’s a more compelling speaker than Anthony Albanese and infinitely more credible on the topic. Let Dean have that air time instead. He’d do more with it.
________________
What a coincidence. I just unsubscribed about 20 minutes ago from the Yes23 emails after q request for a donation to the campaign. I initially thought it would be a source for information and signed up as I am keen to support the YES campaign. However requests for donations from organisations that I do not know well and has no prior history or details on the percentage of the donation that goes to the work versus administration is not something that I find it easy to contribute to. I do not get something in return like a t-shirt (I want a t-shirt). These details may not be accurate, but that is what I surmised from a cursory read of the emails.
I also cannot see this as a method for winning people over, but maybe I am out of touch.
Australia has lost the toss, will bat first and we have dropped Boland for Starc. Overcast,
And I have to leave now to go and chair a meeting! Bummer!
DEATH TOLL FROM RUSSIAN ATROCITY IN KRAMATORSK RISES AGAIN:
“Suspilne, Ukraine’s state broadcaster, reports that the national police service now says that ten people were killed in Karmatorsk.”
https://www.theguardian.com/world/live/2023/jun/28/russia-ukraine-war-live-kramatorsk-death-toll-rises-nato-to-strengthen-eastern-defences#maincontent
Enough Already @ #265 Wednesday, June 28th, 2023 – 6:00 pm
You’ll know when they start because of the smiles on the faces of politicians who – despite already being amongst the highest paid politicians on the planet – are suddenly $10,000 per annum richer.
I think we can safely assume that Canberra will not suffer from the recession that is about to smash the rest of Australia.
‘Nicholas says:
Wednesday, June 28, 2023 at 7:14 pm
Albanese’s track record in the face of a competent conservative fightback against his proposals isn’t great, and his ability to actually put up a fight and win against a competent conservative campaign is still pretty much an unknown.
100 percent. Anthony Albanese’s political career is a story of internal Labor power plays and hilariously inept antics against the Greens. He isn’t a strong advocate for policy proposals.
If the referendum fails it will be mostly his fault.
Perhaps he’ll hone his message on this and his public speaking skills in general. But I think he’d be better off using his platform to highlight more effective public speakers who can do the heavy lifting on the referendum. A guy I went to school with, Dean Parkin, is the Campaign Director for the Yes23 campaign. He’s a more compelling speaker than Anthony Albanese and infinitely more credible on the topic. Let Dean have that air time instead. He’d do more with it.’
================================================
Let’s see….
1. Albanese led Labor out of the wildnerness and into government after a decade. Which is more than Bandt has achieved or the Greens will ever achieve.
2. Albanese supports the call by Indigenous people for ‘Yes’ and for Recognition in the Constitution. Tick. OTOH, the political leaders who have, at various times, come out AGAINST the Voice are Dutton, Littleproud, Hanson and Bandt. If the Voice goes down that quartet will be mostly responsible. The notion that they can oppose the Voice and then blame Albanese for the Voice going down is classic cack-handed Greens/Liberals/Nationals/One Nation arsehole politics.
3. Albanese made a series of promises in the last election and he has implemented most of them already. His promises have nearly all been opposed by the Greens whose sole major substantive political ‘success’ thus far has been to prevent the construction of housing for 75,000 homeless people.
Nicholas
100 percent. Anthony Albanese’s political career is a story of internal Labor power plays and hilariously inept antics against the Greens. He isn’t a strong advocate for policy proposals.
If the referendum fails it will be mostly his fault.
Of course. All Albo’s fault. Things that will not at all be responsible for the failure of the Voice referendum:
* The wishy-washy advocacy (if you can call it advocacy) of the Voice by the Greens.
* The opposition to the Voice by the batshit crazy Lidia Thorpe (who incidentally despises everything about Australia and its political institutions including the Parliament, but does not despise the parliamentary salary it provides her).
* Opposition to the Voice by Peter Dutton and the Federal Opposition, and the misleading and mendacious campaigning at their behest.