We’re probably due a Resolve Strategic poll in the coming week, and Newspoll’s quarterly aggregates with state-level results and other breakdowns will likely be upon us shortly. For now, there’s the following poll-wise:
• A JWS Research poll finds 46% intending to vote yes in the Indigenous Voice referendum against 43% for no, with 11% uncommitted. Even allowing for small samples, the state breakdowns have unintuitive results, showing clear leads for yes in Western Australia and no in New South Wales, and statistical ties in Victoria, Queensland and South Australia. The poll was conducted from June 2 to 6 from a sample of 1122. This comes attached to the pollster’s quarterly True Issues survey on issue salience, which as you might expect finds housing and interest rates continuing to track upwards while hospitals, health care and ageing continues to decline from its pandemic-era highs. Thirty-seven per cent rate the government’s performance as very good or good compared with 23% for poor or very poor, both results unchanged on last time.
• The weekly federal voting intention numbers from Roy Morgan have Labor’s two-party lead steady at 57-43, which is presumably influenced by a change in preference flows, because the primary votes have Labor up one to 37.5%, the Coalition down two to 32% and the Greens steady on 13%.
Other news:
• A paper by Matthew Taylor for conservative think tank the Centre for Independent Studies reached the headline-grabbing conclusion that the Coalition stands to lose the next six federal elections if present generational trends continue to play out uninterrupted. While the paper finds evidence that Generation X (born 1965 to 1980) is following the previously established trend towards conservatism as it ages, its analysis of Australian Election Study survey data paints a distinctly unpromising picture for the Coalition among Millennials (born 1981 to 1995) and especially Generation Z (after 1995). The former started from a lower base of Coalition support than previous generations and is showing only tentative movement to conservatism with the onset of middle age (more discernible is movement from the Greens to Labor). The starting point for Gen Z was lower still and has, from an admittedly shallow pool of data, since collapsed altogether, to the extent that Coalition support is now 25% lower than for the population as a whole — although the movement has been to the none-of-the-above category rather than Labor.
• Matthew Killoran of the Courier-Mail reports that right-wing Queensland Senator Gerard Rennick faces four preselection challengers for his third position on the Senate ticket at the Liberal National Party’s state conference next weekend. In addition to those already reported — Nelson Savanh of strategic communications firm Michelson Alexander and private investment fund director Stuart Fraser — are Mitchell Dickens, a former staffer to Rennick and party operative based on the Sunshine Coast, and Sophia Li, a former political adviser who has made a few guest appearances on Amanda Stoker’s program on Sky News. Incumbent Paul Scarr is also under challenge for his top position from Li and Fiona Ward, who was recently overlooked for the Fadden by-election, but is not reckoned to be in any trouble.
• Following earlier reports of a challenge from Mary Aldred, the Sentinel Times reports South Gippsland mayor Nathan Hersey will also run for preselection against Russell Broadbent, the 72-year-old Liberal member for the Victorian seat of Monash.
#weatheronPB
Lazy hazy sky.
Cool, calm, quiet enjoyment.
Spread out before me.
(from previous)
The traditional solution to the Liberals Millennial problems might be more of what they’ve been doing:
– selective pork-barreling
– sugar hits like releasing super for home purchase. It won’t work for long but it would win votes
– right-wing populism. Convince them that despised out-groups are to blame for their problems, not the moneyed elites robbing them blind
– as part of the previous point, divide and rule (in part, to identify out-groups to be despised)
BK
Wonderful tribute for Jasper!
The ambassador giving Speers a lesson in diplomacy.
A friend of mine had dealings with Gladys B when she was the NSW Transport Minister.
Gladys never listened to advice, was arrogant, played the ‘dumb bimbo’ card, undermined senior mandarins in the PS.
Furthermore she was essentially incompetent and had aspirations way above her abilities.
”
“Donald Trump was allegedly creepy about Ivanka – but will his fans care?”, asks Arwa Mahdawi.
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2023/jul/01/donald-trump-ivanka-miles-taylor-book-claims
”
Simple answer: NOooooo
The trend towards conservatism with age applies to political parties even more than voters.
”
Oliver Suttonsays:
Sunday, July 2, 2023 at 6:54 am
Scott: “Qld is the only state which will supports Lib/nats …”
On the latest Resolve analysis it’s actually a statistical tie in Queensland:
Labor 34%
LNP 33%
”
Can someone or William Bowe post what 2PP will be in QLD so that we can extrapolate it to Fadden?
Elon Musk is a lot of things, but being stupid is not one of them
He knows what he is doing with twitter
The platform is being used with an agenda in mind. And it is in concert with some vested interests.
Twitter is deliberately being tweaked. And Musk does not care one bit that eventually it will fall apart. That is in fact the endgame.
”
Douglas and Milkosays:
Sunday, July 2, 2023 at 3:29 am
William, hello from La France profound, where to my shock three cars were torched on Thursday.
My take is was local white supremicists and drug dealers – it was well planned, and the van of the Police Municipale was the first car torched. They wore balaclavas – there was nothing spontaneous about it.
”
My take it is not just “local white supremicists and drug dealers “, who are doing this. There is lot of anger amongst people of colour and far left and far right.
And these protests, riots and arson is somehow is business as usual when it comes to French protests is not correct reading of the situation.
From the head article: ”Even allowing for small samples, the state breakdowns have unintuitive results…”
The sample size is 1122. The margin of error for the whole sample is about 3%. That for NSW is about 5%, for WA it’s about 9%, assuming that the sample is representative of states. We can’t draw many conclusions from state sub-samples.
@Ven
Those numbers indicate roughly a 7% swing to Labor in Queensland, so if that shows in the by-election, it’ll be held by the LNP by 53-47.
A 7% swing to Labor over the rest of Queensland would be 53-47 to Labor, probably its best result in modern times and according to the pendulum, would gain about 9 seats.
The young man on the Insiders panel is pleasant and presenting his arguments well.
I like him.
The young man on the Insiders panel is pleasant and presenting his arguments well.
I like him.
______
I too, Ven.
Oliver Sutton at 6:48am
“ A lot of words to say that, since the last election, Labor’s primary vote is up 7 points and the LNP’s is down 7 points.”
—————————
Succinct, factual, nicely put. But it doesn’t fit the msm narrative.
”
shellbellsays:
Sunday, July 2, 2023 at 7:34 am
“It was a murder that shocked the nation and left a man in jail with no hope of parole. Innocent or guilty, that man, Phoung Ngo, deserves to be pardoned, writes Mac Halliday.”
He attacked the fabric of democracy for his own benefit by killing a good man in front of his wife and was indirectly responsible for Reba Meagher sitting in parliament.
Computer says no.
”
Reba Meagher was one of the women we were discussing about. Crooked to the core.
Thanks BK
Confessions
“ The extent of Trump’s efforts to cajole Ducey into helping him stay in power has not before been reported, even as other efforts by Trump’s lawyer and allies to pressure Arizona officials have been made public. Ducey told reporters in December 2020 that he and Trump had spoken, but he declined to disclose the contents of the call then or in the more than two years since. Although he disagreed with Trump about the outcome of the election, Ducey has sought to avoid a public battle with Trump.”
This seems little different to what happened in Georgia and I assume it’s being followed up appropriately by the authorities. More charges perhaps?
“The Liberals are waiting for Scott Morrison to leave parliament for another job”, said Niki Savva, “But strangely enough people are not lining up to give him one”.
Grant Ex Libris
I also had one briefing of Gladys over a transport project I was involved in. She was very polite but I agree she had no idea of the nature or impact of the project. Her only interest was political, wanting to understand which blocks of land were hit by it. That was years ago, but Sydney LRT proved her understanding did not improve.
Steve
“ The traditional solution to the Liberals Millennial problems might be more of what they’ve been doing:
– selective pork-barreling
– sugar hits like releasing super for home purchase. It won’t work for long but it would win votes”
I don’t see how either of these helps Millennials? Pork barreling usually benefits whichever contractor gets the job. Super for home purchase benefits banks, real estate agents and aging boomers hoping to unload their investment property. It merely adds fuel to the housing affordability bonfire that harms millennials, then leaves them with an impoverished retirement.
you truly are a black hearted soul, taylormerde 😡
Wonderful news about Jasper, BK. I miss every one of our dogs Shadow,Jade,Snowy,Max,Terry, Sandy and Buster . This calendar sounds great !! Thanks also for your wrap of each day, essential reading for me and everybody else!! Just gave Lucy the black labrador a scratch on the tummy while Ricky the beagle is having a whinge!!
Victoria @ #59 Sunday, July 2nd, 2023 – 9:38 am
Yep. Most definitely.
“ The bias against voting Liberal or National has grown with each generation since the Baby Boomers and this is fast becoming a crisis for the conservative side of politics, writes James Campbell.”
The use of the term bias appears to be a deliberate attempt at obfuscation by Campbell. Bias refers to an unfair inclination or prejudice. What is in fact happening is that voters, especially of generations younger than Boomers are actively rejecting Coalition values based on their lived experiences, hopes and expectations.
One can only hope.
Victoria says:
Sunday, July 2, 2023 at 9:38 am
Elon Musk is a lot of things, but being stupid is not one of them
He knows what he is doing with twitter
The platform is being used with an agenda in mind. And it is in concert with some vested interests.
Twitter is deliberately being tweaked. And Musk does not care one bit that eventually it will fall apart. That is in fact the endgame.
________
tell us more sacred Oracle.
BK says:
Sunday, July 2, 2023 at 10:04 am
“The Liberals are waiting for Scott Morrison to leave parliament for another job”, said Niki Savva, “But strangely enough people are not lining up to give him one”.
Not any positions for failed PR spivs, Abbot filled the last one
A totally misleading headline from the Nine Sunday papers today – LABOR’S SUPPORT HAS ONLY DROPPED IN QLD COMPARED TO THE PREVIOUS POLL, NOT ACROSS THE ENTIRE COUNTRY.
As has been noted previously in this thread, Albanese is in good shape in NSW, VIC, SA and WA.
In relation to NSW, our new Premier is pretty popular, so that would be helping Labor federally too.
Why do you think Qld is now difficult for Labor federally yet it keeps voting Labor at a state level?
In the previous thread, Asha at 9:18pm wondered about T**** supporters and asked, “Just what would bother these people?”
For mine, they would abandon him if he stopped behaving like The Supreme Jerk. You could say that cowardly losers always attach themselves to the biggest bully, but it may be simpler than that even. T**** is a cartoon, a dangerous one. In the land of super-sized-everything nothing is too much because nothing is real. Only the show matters.
Re Socrates @10:04. ”don’t see how either of these helps Millennials?”
”Pork barreling usually benefits whichever contractor gets the job.”
True, but enough people are likely to think that they are getting something for nothing. The Morrison Government clearly believed that it worked.
”Super for home purchase benefits banks, real estate agents and aging boomers hoping to unload their investment property. It merely adds fuel to the housing affordability bonfire that harms millennials, then leaves them with an impoverished retirement.”.
All absolutely true, which is why it should never be done. However, some millennials will just see money in their hands now instead of in 30 or 40 years. They don’t have to fool everyone, just a few percent at the margins.
The other thing I’ve noted is that voters appear to be differentiating between national electoral polling and The Voice. In other words, Labor is maintaining or improving its vote nationally despite potential difficulties with The Voice referendum.
Taylormade @ #40 Sunday, July 2nd, 2023 – 8:49 am
Herald Sun is your authority !! ????? Sukkar!
Unsurprising that this right wing Govt is going to use this budget surplus to pay down debt, leaving behind those living in poverty who have been belted by a 25% increase in energy costs.
A couple of passing comments. Firstly, Resolve polling probably leans to Labor on the TPP by about 3 points compared to other polls, and I shave off that every time I look at it. Don’t bother with seat counts based on these unbelievable figures. I never trust the huge leads it shows. As I recall for some reason in the last term it showed huge leads to Labor that narrowed once an election was close and they started reading out actual parties standing in each seat. They are not very transparent about their methods and are not part of the polling council.
Secondly, it may not be obvious but this is not a new poll at all. Its like Newspoll’s quarterly aggregate of past polling in order to get state breakdowns, combining the polls already done April to June. Interesting, but worth keeping in mind it won’t tell you exactly what the vibe was over the last week.
Re Leroy @10:25.
The last time that Labor scored better than 53% 2PP (rounded) in an actual election was 1946.
Cronus says:
Sunday, July 2, 2023 at 10:22 am
The other thing I’ve noted is that voters appear to be differentiating between national electoral polling and The Voice. In other words, Labor is maintaining or improving its vote nationally despite potential difficulties with The Voice referendum.
____________________________________
There was an exhausting discussion yesterday about whether Dutton’s opposition to the Voice was entirely predictable. I thought that it was not. It was clear that there were too many elements in the Party vehemently opposed for the Liberals to back it, but I really thought that he would allow members a conscience vote in order to keep the party together.
I thought that to oppose outright – and especially by making it overtly political as he has – was just dumb politics. I was, and remain, convinced that it would do no political harm to Albanese and Labor if the referendum failed, although it would do immeasurable harm to the prospects of our First Nations peoples. And opposing the Voice would further alienate those historic socially progressive Liberal voters in the seats where the Teal independents made such inroads.
Well, he went and opposed. Dumb politics as far as I can see. Whatever happens at the next election I cannot see the Coalition getting into a minority government, let alone actually winning an election. They are bleeding from their traditional heartlands and they don’t seem to care.
@Grant:
“A friend of mine had dealings with Gladys B when she was the NSW Transport Minister.
Gladys never listened to advice, was arrogant, played the ‘dumb bimbo’ card, undermined senior mandarins in the PS.
Furthermore she was essentially incompetent and had aspirations way above her abilities.”
__________
Too right. And she was just warming up. Worst Premier since Askin. From bean to cup, she fucked up. A rolling, corrupt, omnishambles.
wasnt one of the candadates savin a dutton staffer and yung lnp president suprised stoker is running for a state seat not federal must want to be opposition leader enches wife is not going to well in cans
I think that the Liberals are going after MAGA / “Reagan Republican” types in outer suburbs and regions. Meanwhile, they will probably rely on
greed“aspirational” politics (e.g tax cuts, middle class welfare) to win back their heartland.Steve
Fair enough. On the plus side, several Labor policies like affordable child care should genuinely help millenials.
Housing affordability remains the elephant in the room.
Steve777 says:
Sunday, July 2, 2023 at 10:27 am
Re Leroy @10:25.
The last time that Labor scored better than 53% 2PP (rounded) in an actual election was 1946.
__________________________________
The important thing is the lib/nats combined primary vote below 40% , which the recent actual elections have shown
The lib/nats wont be making the elections competitive
This was yesterday’s news but I could not get over the Liberals calling Labor delivering a now expanded surplus of >$19 billion “dumb luck”. Really??
The Liberals can’t face the fact that they never delivered a surplus in nine years, despite some huge resource export earnings, and cutting social welfare, because of their shameless rorting of grants and project funding that was at best business welfare, more often nepotism to corporate mates.
Since Labor came to office it has cut or deferred over $8 billion in invalid pork/ grants and project funding, with IA reviewing a lot more. This was not dumb luck.
TPOF @ #85 Sunday, July 2nd, 2023 – 10:31 am
Perhaps it has finally dawned on them that they can get their key policies in place without being in government. Tax, Defence, Climate, Environment, Population, Immigration … 🙁
It’s a terrible thing to wish for, but there is a distinct possibility that Trump’s mental state, could significantly deteriorate under the pressure being applied by Jack Smith and other prosecutors around the country.
What’s next for the Coalition of Cookers? They appear to be on a road to nowhere other than in Regional areas. No attempt has been made to regain the cities. Further to that the Libs and Nats now seem to operate as one party, not a difference between them. Dutton seems to be mobilising a MAGA type base that is campaigning raucously the Voice, a minority voter base which has the potential to stir up significant social stife and unheaval regardless.
Once it dawns on the LNP, News Corp and their base that they may be unlikely to form government again, how far away is Australia away from our own January 6th? How long until we get wild violent protests propagated by News Corp propaganda? Australians need to be wary because News Corp is laying the groundwork for such a future.
BK @ #93 Sunday, July 2nd, 2023 – 11:01 am
If his health is bad, if something were to happen to him, god forbid, all of this unpleasantness would just go away.
It didn’t attract a lot of attention but yesterday was also the start of the Australian Submarine Agency (ASA), which will oversee delivery of SSNs for the RAN. It will have up to 680 staff, most based in Canberra.
https://www.minister.defence.gov.au/media-releases/2023-07-01/launch-australian-submarine-agency
This is in principle good because delivering SSNs will require specialist skills that do not currently exist in defence, and it will take the project out of the hands of defence procurement, which has had a less than stellar record on much less challenging tasks. UK and USA both have similar agencies.
Concerns are that it is much larger (680 vs 117) than the equivalent UK agency, even though most of the design will be done in UK, not here. There is also no mention of where the nuclear science and engineering experts will sit, either in ASA, ARPANSA or ANSTO?
Unless you play competitive sport (and one of the chosen sports at that), the Liberal Party have given nothing to anybody under the age of 50 that really improves their lot in life.
Their policies have funneled wealth to the Boomer generation and everyone notices the increasing gap in economic well-being between the boomers and younger generations. Policies like New Homeowner Grants & Homebuilder that “will make housing more affordable” and do precisely the opposite. That is how their policies work every time, it’s a feature that this happens not a bug. Then they package it up and market it with crappy 3 word slogans.
Their lack of care about people and the environment is there simply because these things get in the way of making an easy living digging stuff up and selling it off. There’s no innovation, nation building or ambition in their party platform unless it is in ways that they can siphon off tax payers money for personal or mates gain. Their policies about people are to maintain the status lead of their own people (an ever diminishing pool of uselessness) – please do not apply if you are female, gender diverse or a different ethnicity, you’re not in the club.
The flaw of that strategy in adopting MAGA Republican politics is that the electorate is much more urbanized in Australia than it is in the US. There they have a roughly 50/50 urban-rural population. In Australia it’s more like 75/25.
Sure, rural voters might like it, but voters in the cities don’t, and that’s where most of the seats are (Queensland and Tasmania being the only states where that’s not so much the case).
I’m reasonably confident there are bludgers who enjoy speculating about consciousness. Like me, they might find this a fun read. (No spoilers.)
“Scientists revealed the results of experiments testing how our brains give rise to conscious thought — and ended a 25-year-old bet.” NYT article (unlocked)
FWIW, I lean towards Integrated Information Theory.
EDIT: unlocked
“If his health is bad, if something were to happen to him, god forbid, all of this unpleasantness would just go away.”
I can’t work out if that was sarcastic or serious, but I don’t think the unpleasantness goes away.