Less than a week to go until the Fadden by-election, though I’m afraid there’s no specific news of consequence to relate concerning it. Last week I suggested that Newspoll quarterly breakdowns and a Resolve Strategic poll might be imminent, which still holds a week later. We should also be seeing proposed new state electoral boundaries for Western Australia at some point over the coming fortnight. Other than that:
• Victoria’s long-awaited Warrandyte by-election has been set for August 26. Labor sources cited by Rachel Baxendale of The Australian say the party is “highly unlikely to run”, although The Age reports Labor MPs are “privately pressuring the party to contest”, backed by “a fair bit of pressure coming from the branches”.
• The Financial Review has published further results from this week’s Queensland state poll from Freshwater Strategy showing 50% opposition to the Indigenous Voice with only 36% in support and 14% undecided, breaking out to 58-42 with the latter excluded. The results in Brisbane were 40% supportive and 47% opposed, compared with 31% and 53% in the rest of the state.
• Right-wing Queensland Senator Gerard Rennick has been dumped from the Liberal National Party’s ticket for the next election after a vote at the party’s state conference, despite backing from Peter Dutton. His third position, which did not avail Amanda Stoker when she held it at last year’s election, will instead go to Stuart Fraser, who reportedly won the final round of the vote by 134 to 131. Fraser is the LNP’s treasurer and director of a private investment fund, also noted for his involvement with the Tattersalls Club and the Catholic Archdiocese of Brisbane. The Guardian reports Fraser survived the final exclusion by four votes ahead of Nelson Savanh of strategic communications firm Michelson Alexander, then narrowly prevailed as moderate support coalesced behind him. Another contestant for the position, Sophia Li, a former adviser to Shadow Defence Industry Minister Luke Howarth, takes the fourth position, while former state Hinchinbrook MP and Newman government minister Andrew Cripps is fifth.
• Paul Sakkal of the Sydney Morning Herald reports on the prospect of Matt Kean, senior minister in the recently ousted state government and noted factional moderate, running at the next federal election in Bradfield should Paul Fletcher choose to retire, or alternatively against teal independent Kylea Tink in North Sydney. Dominic Perrottet was said to be resisting overtures to run in North Sydney or challenge Alex Hawke for preselection in Mitchell, and was likely to quit politics. There was “no indication” Gladys Berejiklian or Mike Baird might run, despite reported urgings from senior Liberals. Berowra MP Julian Leeser might be challenged by conservatives displeased with his support for the Indigenous Voice, but was “likely to survive”. Such questions may be settled later rather than sooner after a vote for the party’s state presidency was won by former Mackellar MP Jason Falinski, who is reportedly dubious about Peter Dutton’s determination to have all candidates preselected by October.
Little point claiming the high ground when you are in the weeds with the likes of Hartcher, Cronus.
But surely – given that it has been repeated overtly on numerous occasions – you understand that ‘Freedumbs’ is designed to provoke.
Surely you understand, that once America placed a military contest between China and America in the South China Sea clearly ‘on the board’ (having gone out of its way to send the opposite signal over the previous 30 years) that the rational thing for the CCP to do was to grab the contested islands forthwith?
Andrew-Earlwood,
Your guilt by association with Peter Hartcher, argument is risible, and feeble to boot.
The Albanese Government is embarassingly sycophantic towards the United States. Their obsequious posture towards the United States places our national security in jeopardy. We need to be an independent middle power that is viewed as an honest broker on the world stage. Not a stooge of a corrupt, dysfunctional, kleptocratic state (the United States).
C@tmomma @ #1050 Tuesday, July 11th, 2023 – 7:50 pm
I think that’s the point. The Polish President(?) reiterated that the summit’s goal is a path for Ukraine to join NATO. The only way that can work (that I can think of) is that the war has to be ended with Russia expelled.
German Chancellor now speaking. (In German)
NATO’s continued existence after and at the end of the Cold War has already denied peaceful unity to the broader Europe, the promise of which the end of the Cold War held open.
Absolute gobbledegook from Paul Keating. You just have to have eyes to see the extreme reluctance that NATO displayed when it came to getting involved in the invasion of Ukraine by Russia. Vladimir Putin was given so many off ramps by NATO countries, such as France and Germany, until Germany wised up, countries who were more than willing to welcome Russia back into the fold if needs be, that to argue that NATO just loves to spoil for a fight is just a flat out lie.
C@tmomma says:
Tuesday, July 11, 2023 at 7:54 pm
Andrew-Earlwood,
Your guilt by association with Peter Hartcher, argument is risible, and feeble to boot.
——————
Yep, Shades of Rex with the ridiculous name calling rather than sticking to debating the subject. One might’ve expected more from a lawyer than schoolyard name-calling in an attempt to support an argument, it’s genuinely childish.
I have no problems with holding another opinion but relying on immature innuendo and inferences is contemptible.
Given how ‘adjacent’ to Hartcher this afternoon’s pile on has been C@t, it is hardly risible. Let alone feeble.
Look, I think Keating make a mistake in one sentence: either he went too far or just needed a proof reader. If – as the context of his statement seems to suggest – and I believe – that Keating was comparing china’s actions post Cold War with those of America, then he is spot on with the rest of the statement.
Surely a ‘joiutnalist’ would seek to follow up and scrutinise Keating about that before launching into the usual partisan pile on that avoids the main point being made.
The fact that ‘you guys’ followed Hartcher down this rabbit hole – especially you C@t, now that you mention it, simply proves my point.
Nicholas @ #1053 Tuesday, July 11th, 2023 – 7:54 pm
Australia would be crushed like a bug underfoot if we followed your utopian unicorn mentality. You need to get out of Kenmore and into the real world more, Nicholas.
Nicholas @ #1059 Tuesday, July 11th, 2023 – 7:54 pm
Marles is our Defence Minister and Deputy PM. Enough said.
Cronus @ #1056 Tuesday, July 11th, 2023 – 7:59 pm
Now you’ve seen what I had to put up with for months! Just because I disagreed with Andrew_Earlwood about which subs Australia would or should end up buying.
He’s always right. Just ask him! 😆
Wait, is the Albanese trip to China off, now? I was hopeful that it would go ahead.
I dont hold much hope it would change much given our foreign, intelligence and defence establishments capture by the US, but dialogue is good.
“Australia would be crushed like a bug underfoot if we followed your utopian unicorn mentality. You need to get out of Kenmore and into the real world more, Nicholas.”
Crushed by whom c@t?
China? Who is happy to … checks notes … buy $100 billion in iron ore alone from us each year? Why on earth if we didn’t throw down with Uncle Sam would they threaten us, let alone crush us like a bug? In fact we are at real risk of being entrapped in the China paradox: seeking safety in the sweaty armpit of Uncle Sam – at least in the way we have over the past decade, especially the last 5 years – is what actually imperils us.
France will provide Ukraine with Scalp long-range cruise missiles to help Kyiv’s forces strike targets deep behind Russian lines, President Emmanuel Macron said Tuesday, July 11.
Arriving at a NATO summit focused on Kyiv’s battle against Moscow’s invasion, Macron said Paris would send the SCALP missile, already supplied by London under the name “Storm Shadow”.
Germany for its part will pledge another 700 million euros in military assistance to Ukraine on Tuesday, government sources told Agence France Presse. Berlin, Ukraine’s second biggest supplier of arms to resist the Russian invasion, had already announced a new weapons package worth 2.7 billion euros for Kyiv in May, ahead of a visit by President Volodymyr Zelensky.
A senior government official on Monday had said that Germany would make a “very substantial” new pledge of military equipment for Ukraine at the NATO meeting.
Cronus: take a step back: c@t is cleaving to you.
You have the shits with me at the moment. Sorry about that, but Australia is in the process of making a grievous mistake. … deep down I think you probably know that.
C@T
There are so many decent and reasonable ways to articulate strongly held opinions and positions without resorting to such limited and unnecessary tactics. It does so little for the betterment of the blog and I find it very frustrating and seems particularly bad after 7pm, I’m not sure why.
“Absolute gobbledegook from Paul Keating. ”
You are displaying once again that you lack … the furniture in that attic of a mind of yours … to comprehend the point PJK was making.
Socrates:
Tuesday, July 11, 2023 at 7:13 pm
[‘Mavis 6:45
Thanks. I note your point re the surprise outcome on the Pell appeal.
[‘1. Presumably the HC won’t go over matters of fact, which includes the fact of the unlawful killings. A legal win that leaves that fact undisputed is not much of a win.
2. Besanko already seemed to separate the wheat from the chaff in dismissing the abuse claim, which is harder to prove.
3. The logic that once you are found to be a killer not much more damage can be done to your reputation makes sense to the common man.
4. This is not the same as Pell in that BRS brought on the action on ground of his own choosing. Nor are the events so old as to be forgotten, or involving child witnesses.’]
At its essence, this case involved contradictory versions of events. An appeals court does not retry the matter before it, and won’t disturb a trial judge’s findings of fact provided they’re supported by the evidence. In this case, they demonstrably were, the trial judge accepting the evidence of the respondents’ witnesses in lieu of the exculpatory account of the defence witnesses.
As for my reference to Pell, I only brought that up as you cannot be fully sure of any decision. I’d imagine that most legal people who followed the trial will come to the conclusion that Roberts-Smith’s appeal is doomed to fail in the Full Court of the Federal Court. If such ensues, he’d need to seek leave to appeal to the HC, which I think will fail miserably. I think he’s playing for time.
Watching the NATO Summit live-stream is a hit and miss affair. That’s to be expected I suppose. But what has already struck me is that in “usual times” Sweden’s joining NATO would be the big topic. But not this time. “Landing Zone Is Ukraine within NATO” and “Path for Ukraine to NATO” have been the topics.
Biden is up…
EDIT: Well, he was up, honest. He didn’t say much.
Can you imagine the hysteria on here if China had a fleet 12 miles from San Diego or Sydney.
I think Albo and co are yet to realise they cannot take Gen Z support of the voice for granted. The optics at this stage are that he is on these random junkets to balloon defence spending and spending all political capital domestically spruiking the voice. Feels like the cost of living crisis is not being addressed at all.
I could live with the socially progressive policies if we had any semblance of meaningful, fiscally progressive policy.
@Boerwar 5:36pm:
I do hope this is pure sarcasm.
But realistically, the facts are these:
1) China is a rising power – still. Despite many commentators’ hyping of the “grey wave” of retirements crippling the Chinese economy, it…hasn’t. Instead, China has moved farther up the value-adding chain – instead of focusing on simple transformations (e.g., iron to steel), their focus for the past 20+ years has been to gain as much elaborate transformation (e.g., iron to steel to vehicles) capacity as possible. And it’s worked, to a point.
2) China’s economic outlook is mixed. Despite the “grey wave” not crippling the economy, there are still significant pressures on it. Old-model State-Owned Enterprises still act as political entities rather than commercial ones, the Chinese banking system is still dangerously illiquid and opaque, and the real-estate bubbles in various “new cities” across China is immense – huge assets on the balance sheet, but massive white-elephant liabilities for their owners in reality. Not to mention the (still) serious problem of corruption in the CCP, despite Xi’s attempts to crack down on it (at least partly because he weaponised corruption charges to go after potential rivals). Any of these could blow up in Beijing’s face, causing massive economic turmoil – a significant part of Beijing’s energies are spent trying to keep them all in check.
3) Fundamentally, the CCP’s legitimacy as “the government” rests on three fundamental points. First, that life is getting better for most Chinese under their rule. Second, that they will address the (partly legitimate, partly hyped-up) nationalist complaints about the pre-WW2 era – the territorial disputes, the Unequal Treaties, the general high-handed nature of Western dealings with non-Western polities, especially those as weak as the Qing. And third, that whatever their failings, they’re still better than the KMT.
The first factor will fade – fast – if a large-scale economic disruption is not addressed quickly and well. The second is part of why Beijing’s taking an increasingly hard-line approach to issues like Taiwan, the South China Sea, Tibet and so on. And the third is simply no longer valid – the CCP isn’t as bad as Chiang Kai-Shek’s KMT, but that KMT no longer exists. The KMT of today is so different as to defy comparison.
Consequently, Beijing will not – cannot – abandon its increasingly…muscular…approach to international relations. Any events which the domestic audience see as evidence of Chinese weakness on the international stage undercut one of the (now two) main points of legitimacy of the CCP as the governing entity. Thus, I predict that Beijing *will* maintain, and even escalate, their demands for this and that on the international stage and generally throw its (ever-increasing) weight around as a “Great Power” to convince their own populace that they are one; appeasement is simply not an option. One example of their increasing willingness to apply (unofficial, and thus un-judicable) trade embargoes against countries which raise topics that China finds uncomfortable; another is their increasingly thin skin when other countries’ media and/or academia criticise aspects of the CCP’s rule and/or policies.
However, simply refusing Beijing’s (round after round) of demands is also not an option – not without a sturdy plan to back such a refusal against the almost-inevitable attempts at punishment. Thus, we must – as a nation – develop some kind of consensus about how to address the implications of China’s growth in power.
(4) America can no longer be relied upon as a security guarantor, if it ever could. Between the four-year circus that was the Trump Administration, the chronic and worsening political gridlock, and the decreasing disparity between PRC and USA military capability, both Washington’s willingness and capacity to aid us are now in question. In fact, it should be clear that – absent a direct treaty requirement to come to our aid (ANZUS doesn’t cut it) – America will conduct a cost-benefit analysis very carefully before deciding to intervene on our behalf should we be attacked.
(5) From all of the above, Australia’s best options are to (a) Find a viable way to go it alone – such a path almost certainly involves Australia exiting the NPT and developing nuclear weapons as a deterrent against attack, as well as building an entire military-industrial complex to support our security autarky; (b) Find or build a new ally or coalition which we can rely upon to come to our aid if needed; or (c) Some combination of both.
For my own $0.02 worth, I prefer (c), heavily weighted toward building a mutual-defense coalition with key other nations, as well as investing in our own defense capabilities. Potential security partners would include Japan/ROK, India and ASEAN.
(6) On the economic front, Australia must – absolutely must! – develop a coherent plan to build economic ties with other emerging markets in order to mitigate the impact of (likely) Chinese efforts to continue economically blackmailing us. India, South America, Eastern African nations – right now, we barely have a trade OR an investment policy regarding whole regions of the globe, and the window is closing on countless opportunities for Australia to secure both future prosperity and future influence with those regions’ governments.
But, of course, no such policy will be developed. Not only will the Coalition bloody-mindedly scupper any and all Labor progress the moment they take office, but even Labor is also too tightly wedded to the “necessity” of the US alliance being the be-all and end-all of our foreign and domestic policies (Hence the incredibly shitty AUKUS “deal”). To be fair, the last Australian leader to question the extent of our reliance on Washington was Gough Whitlam…and we all know what happened to that Government.
I think Keating is right to warn that an increasing commitment to the containment of China will be self fulfilling prophecy and one that is against our economic interests.
Bodgie: “ALP 54.5% L-NP 45.5%”
Back in ye olde days, that woulda led to a paddlin.
Echo
“Can you imagine the hysteria on here if China had a fleet 12 miles from San Diego or Sydney.”
________
We have already had a taste of that when the PLA-N had a sole destroyer sail through the Torres Strait and along the way – when in the middle of the Arafura sea a RAAF Persidon do a fly over and there was a laser beam pointed at the plane. Also much fulmination when the same ship cruised up and down the western Australian coast – about 150nm to sea.
Wot Matt (8:29pm) said!
Andrew_Earlwood @ #1065 Tuesday, July 11th, 2023 – 8:12 pm
Apologists for Paul Keating can ALWAYS find a way to excuse his increasingly irrational pronouncements. It’s not him, it’s you! 😆
The Green hypocrite Mehreen Faruqi has blocked people from commenting on her Facebook page. You can’t make this shit up!
Andrew_Earlwood @ #1075 Tuesday, July 11th, 2023 – 8:49 pm
You would agree with that. Not surprisingly.
I could pull it apart if you like? However, you’d just reply with your trademark gutter retorts that completely avoid acknowledging inconvenient truths that don’t accord with your hero worship of a fading intellectual called Paul Keating.
Relax, Rex – sugar isn’t always bad.
‘Scientists have used sugar to create a record-breaking battery capable of storing grid-scale energy for more than a year.
The breakthrough could help speed up the transition to renewable energy sources, which require vast amounts of battery storage in order to avoid relying on fossil fuels to meet demand when solar or wind output is low.’
https://www.independent.co.uk/tech/battery-record-storage-sugar-renewable-energy-b2373078.html
“ I could pull it apart if you like?”
Knock yourself out, C@t.
Please do not forget to address the elephant in the room: that neither the Republicans nor democrat friendly under 40s voters seem up for this ‘China Containment’ malarkey that Biden – a literal fossil from the FDR era – is pushing. … ie. we may think we know what America stands for NOW, but what about in two years time? Or Six years time? A decade from now?
[‘A likely replacement for current Reserve Bank governor Phil Lowe is expected to be announced as soon as this week, as the economy continues to slow off the back of 12 interest rate rises and high inflation.’] – SMH
“ A likely replacement for current Reserve Bank governor Phil Lowe is expected to be announced as soon as this week”
If the government was smart, they’d pick PJK (as it would keep him off the streets and shouting at them, lols).
Matt says:
Tuesday, July 11, 2023 at 8:29 pm
Thanks for the post. Calmly reasoned in a frenzied thread these past 36 hours 🙂
“ Thanks for the post. Calmly reasoned in a frenzied thread these past 36 hours ”
Comrade, you remind me: I owe you a drink soon. How about the Opera Bar again, one sunny winter’s Sunday afternoon in the not too distant future (all are welcome, including – especially – you C@t).
ae i sort of agree with you that the anti china opinion is largily not based on anysuddin conserns on human rights but due to the posebility of chine replacing us as as a supper power Hastie addmitted as much in his smh article saying that due tochinas rise we would have to create a narative to protend it was based on human rights not the inbaresment of us loosing power the same tacdicks used in cold war against soviet union
Harcher and aspi seem desperate for a war with china to boost us it seems us isnormally on the look oout for the next war unfrotunately they havnt not won one since wold war two with defeats in afghanistan and vietnam
If Albanese put 10% of the time and effort he does sucking up to the United States of America into helping people with the cost of living Labor would be ahead in the polls 60-40.
speaking of media sources what ever happind to anthony byrne the low profile former inteligents committy deputy chair Nick mckenzi was allways writting about how the branch stacker was some national security exbert and is well respected due to his close work with security agintsies with out him the comity would not be as strong it seems mckenzi got a lot of imfo of byrne but after his corear ended over branch stacking he seems to have not found a job
Price of a bottle of water (330ml).
Zurich: $5.08
Geneva: $3.80
Luxembourg: $3.27
Munich: $3.15
Copenhagen: $2.92
Paris: $2.81
Frankfurt: $2.81
Oslo: $2.60
Amsterdam: $2.55
Brussels: $2.43
Auckland: $2.33
Los Angeles: $2.33
Melbourne: $2.33
Rotterdam: $2.30
Sydney: $2.28
unfortunately the likes of mckenzi and galoway forget to inform there readers that thee parliaments inteligents committy has little power only role recieving inteligents briefing and reviewing listings of terarist organization can not investigate unlike us senate if a agentsy breaks like the law like the east teamore case so no wonder byrne didnt achieve much acsept for branch stacking
I find it very hard to see how you can blame Japan’s entry into the second world war on NATO. Nor for that matter the Russian/China war.
Andrew_Earlwood says:
Tuesday, July 11, 2023 at 9:22 pm
“ Thanks for the post. Calmly reasoned in a frenzied thread these past 36 hours ”
Comrade, you remind me: I owe you a drink soon. How about the Opera Bar again, one sunny winter’s Sunday afternoon in the not too distant future (all are welcome, including – especially – you C@t).
________________
I’ll be up for that. August sometime?
To be honest I would rather Australia be part of a multi-country alliance such as a global version of NATO, rather than a one way “vassal state” relationship like we have currently with the US.
“ I’ll be up for that. August sometime?”
How are you placed on 30 July?
August is frantic for me – back to back trials – and then I’m off to Bali for a couple of weeks in September.
“ I find it very hard to see how you can blame Japan’s entry into the second world war on NATO. Nor for that matter the Russian/China war.”
Im not sure where you are going with that post Fred. Perhaps you too are rebutting a point that Keating never made.
Andrew_Earlwood says:
Tuesday, July 11, 2023 at 9:51 pm
“ I’ll be up for that. August sometime?”
How are you placed on 30 July?
August is frantic for me – back to back trials – and then I’m off to Bali for a couple of weeks in September.
__________________
Deal!
Paul Keating turns 80 next January. He’s about a year younger than Joe Biden and two years younger than Ita Buttrose. He would be an “interesting” pick for head of the RBA. Just imagine the furore from the usual suspects in the usual corners.
Chine depends on unhindered sea trade, freedom of navigation if you will. The USA underpins freedom of navigation. The biggest risk China faces is the USA saying enough is enough and going home. China is in no position to enforce freedom of navigation.