Less than a week to go until the Fadden by-election, though I’m afraid there’s no specific news of consequence to relate concerning it. Last week I suggested that Newspoll quarterly breakdowns and a Resolve Strategic poll might be imminent, which still holds a week later. We should also be seeing proposed new state electoral boundaries for Western Australia at some point over the coming fortnight. Other than that:
• Victoria’s long-awaited Warrandyte by-election has been set for August 26. Labor sources cited by Rachel Baxendale of The Australian say the party is “highly unlikely to run”, although The Age reports Labor MPs are “privately pressuring the party to contest”, backed by “a fair bit of pressure coming from the branches”.
• The Financial Review has published further results from this week’s Queensland state poll from Freshwater Strategy showing 50% opposition to the Indigenous Voice with only 36% in support and 14% undecided, breaking out to 58-42 with the latter excluded. The results in Brisbane were 40% supportive and 47% opposed, compared with 31% and 53% in the rest of the state.
• Right-wing Queensland Senator Gerard Rennick has been dumped from the Liberal National Party’s ticket for the next election after a vote at the party’s state conference, despite backing from Peter Dutton. His third position, which did not avail Amanda Stoker when she held it at last year’s election, will instead go to Stuart Fraser, who reportedly won the final round of the vote by 134 to 131. Fraser is the LNP’s treasurer and director of a private investment fund, also noted for his involvement with the Tattersalls Club and the Catholic Archdiocese of Brisbane. The Guardian reports Fraser survived the final exclusion by four votes ahead of Nelson Savanh of strategic communications firm Michelson Alexander, then narrowly prevailed as moderate support coalesced behind him. Another contestant for the position, Sophia Li, a former adviser to Shadow Defence Industry Minister Luke Howarth, takes the fourth position, while former state Hinchinbrook MP and Newman government minister Andrew Cripps is fifth.
• Paul Sakkal of the Sydney Morning Herald reports on the prospect of Matt Kean, senior minister in the recently ousted state government and noted factional moderate, running at the next federal election in Bradfield should Paul Fletcher choose to retire, or alternatively against teal independent Kylea Tink in North Sydney. Dominic Perrottet was said to be resisting overtures to run in North Sydney or challenge Alex Hawke for preselection in Mitchell, and was likely to quit politics. There was “no indication” Gladys Berejiklian or Mike Baird might run, despite reported urgings from senior Liberals. Berowra MP Julian Leeser might be challenged by conservatives displeased with his support for the Indigenous Voice, but was “likely to survive”. Such questions may be settled later rather than sooner after a vote for the party’s state presidency was won by former Mackellar MP Jason Falinski, who is reportedly dubious about Peter Dutton’s determination to have all candidates preselected by October.
Knock yourself out, C@t.
Don’t mind if I do. 😐
Matt @ 8.29pm July 11th 2023:
Realistically, the facts are NOT those you have stated.
China is a rising power-still
China THINKS it is a rising power. However, the movement to constrain China’s rise has already begun. Messages which the US Secretary of State and the US Treasury Secretary, have no doubt outlined to China’s leadership with their recent visits. They didn’t go cap-in-hand to China, that’s for sure. There were no arsehat remarks made by China after they left. That tells a story all of its own.
* China doesn’t have a ‘grey wave of retirements’ problem, China has a ‘finding jobs for its young people’ problem. Studying at university and then being told to go back to the province you came from and get a job as a farm labourer, is hardly the sign of a powerful economy.
Where do you think all the manufacturing jobs that are being created now in America are coming from? Companies that are relocating out of China, who keep stealing their IP anyway so why hang around for that, and as a result of the incentives that are a result of President Biden’s CHIPS Act.
Or, the companies are relocating their businesses to any one of a number of other countries, like Vietnam, Thailand, Indonesia or India.
China doesn’t have a secret sauce that enables it to do things that other countries can’t. And they’re not very imaginative either. As I said, they’re renowned for stealing IP, and they had to buy the solar panel company from Australia so they could dominate that emerging market. And the MG car company and its production line from Britain.
And you say they make cars, Matt. They’re not the most reliable, though. BYD batteries keep catching fire, though the Chinese tried very hard to keep that a secret, and MG’s build quality and reliability is questionable from what I’ve heard.
2) China’s economic outlook is mixed
You’ve got that right at least. Though not for the reasons you posit. You failed to mention the biggest economic problem that China is facing. . The pull of Deflation.
Not a problem America has.
And that problem of the inexorable pull towards deflation, is as you have pointed out, due to massive inventories on the balance sheet, that are not moving as they would like, and especially to countries with inflation problems. A wicked problem for them as their economy is built around selling stuff to the world as they try to transition to an economy that sells to its own population as much or more. Such that the economy is becoming top heavy with inventory and teetering, as they try to build their way out of the slump.
3) The KMT of today … is the modern Taiwan. It does not belong to China, in the same way that Ukraine does not belong to Russia. China is going to have to find a way to deal with this real politik.
China can try and flex its muscles all it likes, but it has zero experience with real time modern warfare, and America is at present gaining that real time experience via its engagement in Ukraine via NATO. And America will continue to be the #1 military power in the world, in concert now with NATO/Europe and like-minded countries in Asia, such as Japan & South Korea & Australia.
Whether Paul Keating, or China, likes it, or not.
Andrew_Earlwood says:
Tuesday, July 11, 2023 at 9:52 pm
“ I find it very hard to see how you can blame Japan’s entry into the second world war on NATO. Nor for that matter the Russian/China war.”
Im not sure where you are going with that post Fred. Perhaps you too are rebutting a point that Keating never made.
No just commenting on the general nonsense of trying to blame Europe for all wars. If I wanted to comment on what Keating said I would put in the effort to read what he said, I would not depend on a article in the Australian.
Now, I’m going to bed! 😐
“ Chine depends on unhindered sea trade, freedom of navigation if you will.”
So … checks notes again … it is unlikely that China would actually threaten navigation, given that it actually depends on it … according to you. … ignoring of course all the land-based trade with placed like Mongolia, Russia and the various Stan countries it can access without getting its feet wet.
You may have a point though. Well over 50% of chinese trade is dependent on freedom of navigation through the Straits of Malacca. Were the RAN to focus on all those strategic pinch-points between Hainan and Singapore, well it could actually throw a huge spanner in the works if push came to shove between Panda and Kangaroo regarding Australia’s actual national interests.
… hmmm. … that kinda … rings a bell with something written in about 2009. What was that again? Can someone help me out here?
But then again … why would china threaten its own trade with Australia? Barley and wine is one thing, but $100 billion in iron ore?
“ No just commenting on the general nonsense of trying to blame Europe for all wars. ”
So … if not Keating … who exactly said THAT? Today, or like … ever?
Andrew_Earlwood says:
Tuesday, July 11, 2023 at 10:12 pm
“ Chine depends on unhindered sea trade, freedom of navigation if you will.”
So … checks notes again … it is unlikely that China would actually threaten navigation, given that it actually depends on it … according to you. … ignoring of course all the land-based trade with placed like Mongolia, Russia and the various Stan countries it can access without getting its feet wet.
Agree completely, it will not be China stopping the trade. The can barely get past the first chain of islands. Take a look at where the oil flows, who China has border disputes with, who would control the seas through which it flows and ask what would happen if the USA did not guarantee freedom of navigation. China will not last 12 months.
China doesn’t come close to having the resources needed or the markets with land trade. Go no further than Iron ore.
I notice c@t’s Readers Digest attempt at rebuttal on the previous page. I was particularly taken by this statement:
“the movement to constrain China’s rise has already begun”
Bring ring. Bring ring: that’s BA Santamaria on the phone: he wants his 1960s paranoia back!
Jolly japes aside, the fact is – various growing pain problems notwithstanding – the great urbanisation project of China is only 50% to completion. With ‘smooth sailing’ that project may be completed by 2050; but even with some rough seas along the way – which all economies face from time to time – it will be completed in the second half of this century. By which time its economy will be at least 3-4 times that of America.
This is the undeniable calculus. The fundamental truth. Constrain in china’s rise? That’s a pretty sick and frankly deluded piece of Sinophobia right there.
Good night y’all. Even you C@t: you can rest easy I the knowledge that there truly ain’t any ‘reds under your bed’.
Andrew_Earlwood says:
Tuesday, July 11, 2023 at 10:13 pm
“ No just commenting on the general nonsense of trying to blame Europe for all wars. ”
So … if not Keating … who exactly said THAT? Today, or like … ever?
I have no read what Keating said. He is a man of his time. Even Kissinger seems to have changed his tune in the last 12 months. In my view it is hard to get a handle on the men of this time.
“China doesn’t come close to having the resources needed or the markets with land trade. Go no further than Iron ore.”
I don’t agree with the absolutist nature of that statement, but suffice to say, being land constrained would be a tad inconvenient; especially for a rapid economic growth trajectory. But if they are prepared to be patient, and compromise on growth in return for other goals then they could also do that.
China’s economy will never be 3-4 times that of America. That belongs in the same bin as population predictions from previous decades.
Andrew
China is fighting India over Kashmir.
Anybody who thinks they know what will happen to Russia is full of it.
That sounds completely unsustainable for the planet.
Mavis
Re BRS appeal
“ If such ensues, he’d need to seek leave to appeal to the HC, which I think will fail miserably. I think he’s playing for time.”
Thanks, that makes sense. I was trying to understand his motives. Delaying the inevitable could be one.
There’s a militaristic image in this report of Sogavare’s visit to China. It’s been bothering me since I saw it a few hours ago. Almost any image could be used to underline “a comprehensive strategic partnership”. Why make it an explicit military one? It can’t be just for domestic consumption. Marles visited SI less than a fortnight ago.
https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2023/7/10/china-solomon-islands-elevate-strategic-ties
Re NATO Summit live-stream
Ukraine’s minister of defense arrived a few minutes ago. He briefly addressed the media and made three(?) statements.
* “The main goal is full-fledged membership.” (nodding)
* wtte “I can’t discuss that now.” (tapping a folder)
* “My president knows something.” (smiling)
Then he walked on. He seemed confident and hopeful.
Andrew_Earlwood says:
Tuesday, July 11, 2023 at 8:12 pm
“Absolute gobbledegook from Paul Keating. ”
You are displaying once again that you lack … the furniture in that attic of a mind of yours … to comprehend the point PJK was making.
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98.6 says :
I haven’t seen what former PM Paul Keating said, but let me say I support what it is he said.
Late Riser
“ There’s a militaristic image in this report of Sogavare’s visit to China. It’s been bothering me since I saw it a few hours ago. Almost any image could be used to underline “a comprehensive strategic partnership”. Why make it an explicit military one? It can’t be just for domestic consumption. Marles visited SI less than a fortnight ago.”
Yes the Chinese military honour guard for Sogavare is hard to miss. With Australia, Japan and South Korea going to the NATO summit it is pretty obvious China wants to counter with some Pacific influencing of their own.
Sogavare reminds me in multiple respects of Erdogan, playing off everyone to get the best deal for himself. Clearly not somebody Australia can trust. Then again, Macron would have said the same about Morrison. This is when Australian diplomacy needs to be nuanced and speak about our friendship with the people of the Solomon Islands, while not necessarily agreeing with its leader.
Rex Douglas Tuesday July 11, 12.56 am
Generosity is more a demographic of lived experience and empathy. Many years ago when I was young and unemployed in Adelaide, I took a job door collecting for a charity. I walked hours and hours and was paid 10% of what I collected. Big houses with long drive ways got me nothing but abuse. Apartment blocks full of little old ladies got me two dollars a piece and kind words.
Paul Keating’s statement on NATO and China was contained in a tweet by Latika Burke.
The tweet is here.
https://twitter.com/latikambourke/status/1677947704259878912
The statement is here.
Nicko
Earth Overshoot day coming up 2nd August. We’re already unsustainable, have been since about 1970.
98.6 did say previously :
I haven’t seen what former PM Paul Keating said, but let me say I support what it is he said.
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98.6 now says :
I have since read what former PM Paul Keating said in his statement and let me say I support what he said .
It’s pretty bad, actually. And appears to entirely misconstrue Jens’s remarks. Conflating superintending Ukraine’s territorial integrity with superintending Russia, and the territorial integrity of states around China with China.
Completely irrelevant how many people China has, or how large their economy is. They don’t get to invade and annex their neighbors any more than Russia does. And as long as they maintain their record of not attacking other states, that’s a complete non-issue.
New thread.
Breaking News from Thailand
“ Move Forward Party Pita Limjaroenrat failed in this bid to be elected prime minister by the Parliament, receiving just 323 votes in a joint session of the Senate and House of Representatives. He needed to win 375 votes.”
I am told there will be another vote on July 19. Thailand is now effectively leaderless. A sad day for democracy.