Monday miscellany: seat entitlements, Voice and China polling, by-election latest (open thread)

Confirmation that New South Wales and Victoria will each lose a lower house seat, with Western Australia to gain one.

I don’t believe there will be any voting intention polling this week, apart from the usual Roy Morgan – and if you’re really desperate, Kevin Bonham has discovered a trove of its federal polling in a dark corner of its website. Other than that, there’s the following:

• The regular mid-term calculation of population-based state and territory seat entitlements for the House of Representatives was conducted last week, and it confirmed what anyone with a calculator could have worked out in advance, namely that New South Wales and Victoria will each lose a seat, Western Australia will gain one, and the size of the chamber will go from 151 to 150 (assuming the government doesn’t go the nuclear option of seeking to increase the size of parliament, which is under active consideration by the Joint Standing Committee on Electoral Matters). Antony Green has detailed blog posts on the looming redistributions for New South Wales, suggesting Sydney’s North Shore as the area most likely to have a seat abolished), Victoria, which is harder to call. Western Australia’s existing fifteen seats all have similar current enrolments, making it difficult to identify exactly where the sixteenth will be created, except that it is likely to be in an outer suburban growth area.

• Michael McKenna of The Australian reports that Queensland Senator Gerard Rennick, who is appealing his recent Liberal National Party preselection defeat, has offered legal advice that Peter Dutton was wrongly told by party headquarters that he could not vote unless he attended the ballot, where other party notables were allowed to cast votes in absentia. Rennick lost the final round of the ballot to party treasurer Stuart Fraser by 131 votes to 128. The party’s disputes committee is likely to make a recommendation this week as to whether the preselection should be held again, which a party source is quoted describing as a “real possibility”.

• Phillip Coorey of the Financial Review reports that a comprehensive internal poll conducted by Labor earlier this month from a sample of 14,300 found 48% in favour of an Indigenous Voice and 47% opposed, with yes leading in Victoria, South Australia and Tasmania. Further, yes voters were more likely to be firmly resolved in their choice, with 40% saying they would definitely vote yes compared with 30% for a definite no.

• A survey encompassing 24 countries by the Pew Research Centre found Australia tying with Japan for having the least favourable attitudes towards China, with 87% expressing an unfavourable view.

• Labor has formally decided against fielding a candidate in Victoria’s Warrandyte by-election on August 26. The three official nominees thus far are Liberal candidate Nicole Werner, Greg Cheesman of the Freedom Party and Cary De Wit of the Democratic Labour Party. Endorsed Greens candidate Tomas Lightbody’s paperwork is evidently still on its way.

• In other by-election news, I can offer the following contribution to the debate as to how Labor in Western Australia should feel about the result in Rockingham on Saturday: they scored 67.6% of the two-party preferred vote in ordinary election day booths, which was hardly different from their 68.8% in the corresponding booths at last year’s federal election. This means Labor almost matched a result it achieved in the context of an election where the statewide two-party result was 55-45 in its favour.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,539 comments on “Monday miscellany: seat entitlements, Voice and China polling, by-election latest (open thread)”

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  3. Holdenhillbilly says:
    Saturday, August 5, 2023 at 5:43 pm
    Pakistan’s former PM Imran Khan sentenced to three years imprisonment, disqualified from politics for five years.
    …………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………
    What did he do wrong ?
    Did he bowl underarm ?

  6. Renee Heath, the Victorian MLA that Matthew Guy said he would refuse to admit to the partyroom pre-election but that John Pesutto back flipped and admitted, attended a Freedom Party event last night. Channel 7 had the exclusive footage tonight.

    Looks like the Victorian Liberals are the gift that keeps on giving.

  7. 98.6

    “It was said that QE II was one of the richest women on earth, so I presume all her money was passed on to KC III which should make him one of the richest men on earth.”

    Various sources estimate the Queen’s personal wealth was between $500 and $600 million so that would have passed to Charles. Most of her so-called “wealth” which adds up to the billions most people imagine she had, ie palaces, art collection, jewels, royal parks and so on belong to the Royal Estate and not the monarch personally. The monarch can’t sell any of the RE although Charles does derive income from it.

    The King of Thailand has an estimated net worth of between $30 and $43 billion mostly from real estate and investments.

    Charles isn’t even a billionaire. Figures in $US not $AU. Sources include Forbes, Business Insider and CEOWorld.

  8. Various sources estimate the Queen’s personal wealth was between $500 and $600 million so that would have passed to Charles

    Oh, it’s only $500-600 million? I take back everything I’ve ever said about the royals, those poor battlers are clearly struggling!

  9. Does Charles even need to be a billionaire? The British taxpayer funds his lifestyle even if he had zero income derived from it.

    The Soviets had the right idea about monarchies.

  11. Stop punching down on the King. He does lots of work. He has to read speeches, pretend to be interested in what the UKPM is talking about, pretend to give a shit about the rest of the Commonwealth, sign pieces of paper he’s told to and, most horribly, travel to different countries. And he’s not even worth a billion for it! It shows dedication that he even bothers for such a pittance! Next time you’re breaking your back in a low-income, high-workload job, remember: it could be worse – you could be a king.

  15. Of course everyone puts shit on the monarchy now its safe to do so. Not many would have said anything back in the 20s or 30s or 40s etc etc. Well, apart from the communists.

  16. I’m not sure if this issue has been canvassed today but various US cable news outlets (eg, CNN) have postulated that Trump’s post on his social media site, “IF YOU GO AFTER ME, I’M COMING AFTER YOU” is predicated on the magistrate who arraigned him, by failing to accord him the respect he thinks he deserves by referring to him as “Mr Trump” rather than “President Trump”.

    Perhaps such reference was deliberate, in the knowledge that he’d respond to form, with the result that he may’e put himself in legal jeopardy re. his conditional bond (bail). SC Smith’s response was to file a motion for a protective order, as Trump’s post, although generic, has the potential to adversely affect those who have or will be involved in his trial & the administration of justice.

    The trial judge in these matters – District Court Judge Chutkan – has presided over quite a number of Jan 6 sentences. If I was appearing for Trump, I plead cognitive decline is wot done it.

    When all’s said & done Trump knows he cactus, not even
    Judy Sheindlin is capable of getting him off the hook.

  18. Oakeshott Country says:
    Saturday, August 5, 2023 at 7:35 pm

    Nath
    I think Australia’s Irish and/or Catholic community might disagree with you
    _____________
    Well they had enough sense not to do so publicly. Or else there would have been trouble.

  20. Empty Wheel asks why T****’s family has been absent from his court appearances.
    https://www.emptywheel.net/2023/08/04/trumps-family-is-not-in-his-prosecution/

    It’s notable that he’s alone. There’s no posse and there’s no retinue and there’s no family. … his wife is not there, I can’t see any of his kids, his daughter, who worked for him. No one! The guy is alone!

    Ivanka is a focus.

    the silence about Ivanka’s even more central role in all this is really telling given the recent NYT report — posted just over two weeks before the grand jury voted out this indictment — that she had never been asked to testify to the grand jury (technically this does not exclude an interview).

    even more striking, Trump is alone in his indictment

    No answers are offered.

  21. As a descendant of Edward III I think we should have more respect for the Royals than we do. My distant cousin Charles is a good chap, and cruelly picked upon.

  22. An Australian (possibly only NSW) shibboleth was “May 24th”
    In public schools this was celebrated as Empire Day (Queen Victoria’s Birthday) with raising the Butcher’s Apron, singing God Save the Queen and a droning speech from someone from the RSL
    In Catholic Schools, this was the Feast of Our Lady Help of Christians. As she was co-patroness of Australia, this was Australia Day. We raised the Australian flag, sang Advance Australia Fair and Faith of Our Fathers and the priest gave us a half day off after Mass.

    This continued into the mid 60s

  25. Well, my mothers side was strictly English and Empire supporters with a strong Protestant Work Ethic. While my fathers side was strictly Irish Catholic with an equally strong Drinking Ethic.


  26. nath says:
    Saturday, August 5, 2023 at 7:45 pm

    As a descendant of Edward III

    Hell that is a long way back, I have one of Victoria Ist kids in my irreverent tree. That is the generation where all the bullshit should have come to and end, but it limped on.

    Pretty impressed Dan finally said, enough of this expensive nonsense.

  28. frednk says:
    Saturday, August 5, 2023 at 7:57 pm

    Hell that is a long way back, I have one of Victoria Ist kids in my irreverent tree. That is the generation where all the bullshit should have come to and end, but it limped on.
    _______
    Really? That is pretty close, and I mean close enough for you to have a title. I’m calling bullshit.

  29. “although Charles does derive income from it”. So, like a family trust

    Revenues from offshore wind flow from that royal estate. Given they are about the only renewables allowed in the so called UK, it’s a nice earner

  30. C@tmomma at 12:26pm

    (Playing catch up)

    Washington DC never reached the filthy depths of NYC, but I was struck by how clean the place was when I was there last month.

    I lived in nearby Fairfax, Virginia, in the mid 1990s and I remember the place being quite a lot grimier.

    So I asked. Apparently local taxes went up and the local mayor directed the money towards cleaning up the place. It wasn’t my imagination despite 28 years going by.

    Apropos of nothing, DC license plates “TAXATION WITHOUT REPRESENTATION” abounded.

  32. nath
    As a descendant of Edward III I think we should have more respect for the Royals than we do.

    You are descendent of Edward III? Why, you never mention it. This is the sort of thing that one might be tempted to brag about at every opportunity, no matter how tenuous the pretext.

  33. Ballantynesays:
    Saturday, August 5, 2023 at 6:32 pm
    98.6

    “It was said that QE II was one of the richest women on earth, so I presume all her money was passed on to KC III which should make him one of the richest men on earth.”

    Various sources estimate the Queen’s personal wealth was between $500 and $600 million so that would have passed to Charles. Most of her so-called “wealth” which adds up to the billions most people imagine she had, ie palaces, art collection, jewels, royal parks and so on belong to the Royal Estate and not the monarch personally. The monarch can’t sell any of the RE although Charles does derive income from it.

    The King of Thailand has an estimated net worth of between $30 and $43 billion mostly from real estate and investments.

    Charles isn’t even a billionaire. Figures in $US not $AU. Sources include Forbes, Business Insider and CEOWorld.
    ………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………
    I don’t care what Forbes etc say about the wealth of anyone let alone KC III.
    Do you think mere magazine publishers know the wealth of a king whose royal house goes back hundreds of years.
    Most of what Forbes etc publish is always preceded with a proviso that says ‘as far as we can gather’
    from information publicly available etc.
    Does one really think that a king or queen want the masses to know their real hidden wealth knowing what happened to the French and Russian royal families.
    A recent expose on printz andrew says he spends $578,000 a month (that we know of and that he owns up to) so one would presume KC III would spend at least $I million per month or per week more like it.


  34. nath says:
    Saturday, August 5, 2023 at 7:59 pm
    …
    _______
    Really? That is pretty close, and I mean close enough for you to have a title. I’m calling bullshit.

    Yep, and close enough for distant relatives to have lost their head, most Europeans have accepted that titles are best left in the past.

  35. sprocket_ says:
    Saturday, August 5, 2023 at 5:13 pm
    One of Trump’s floated defences is the ‘reliance on counsel’ one, where he, in good faith, took the advice of Eastman to go with the crackpot ‘Fake Electors’ conspiracy.

    Trump is cactus.. if your lawyer tells you it’s ok & legal to go rob a bank & you do.. using that as justification in court will only lead to Trump sharing a cell with his lawyer

  37. I mean, unless their entire ancestry is from some remote village or North Sentinal Island, if you go back far enough anyone can find a king or emperor they are descended from.

  39. Wat Tyler says:
    Saturday, August 5, 2023 at 8:10 pm

    I mean, unless their entire ancestry is from some remote village or North Sentinal Island, if you go back far enough anyone can find a king or emperor they are descended from.
    _________
    As a descendant of Edward III I resent your attempt to topple my crown.

  42. May 24th was Commonwealth Day and Cracker Night in NSW. The fireworks were moved to the Queen’s Birthday (early June) around 1970. Everyone soon lost interest when fireworks in the hands of amateurs were effectively banned a few years later.

  43. ”
    TPOFsays:
    Saturday, August 5, 2023 at 1:32 pm
    I still can’t get my head around Sofronoff sending embargoed copies of his enquiry report to two journalists before he even gave it to the ACT Government. Even more astonishing is the choice of Janet Albrechtson, who has been patently and aggressively anti-Brittany Higgins.

    The other recipient, Elizabeth Byrne of the ABC, is a classic court reporter and a very good one – a person who does not give any indication of her views on any issue. She still shouldn’t have been given a copy, but there at least would be a very good expectation that she would have the integrity to respect the embargo and report the findings in a professional and dispassionate way.

    But Albrechtson? Madness to give her a preview and would – in my mind – actually suggest that Sofronoff wanted to ensure that the flogging of Drumgold was as public as possible and as vicious as possible. A very sad contrast to the utter professionalism of fellow Queenslander Catherine Holmes
    ”

    And Mavis thinks Sofronoff is a person of integrity.

  46. Steve777 says:
    Saturday, August 5, 2023 at 8:17 pm

    May 24th was Commonwealth Day and Cracker Night in NSW. The fireworks were moved to the Queen’s Birthday (early June) around 1970. Everyone soon lost interest when fireworks in the hands of amateurs were effectively banned a few years later.
    _________
    The ancient freedoms of Britons were truly lost in this land the day average people were denied explosives.

  47. Steve777 says:
    Saturday, August 5, 2023 at 8:22 pm

    Nath is descended from the villain in Braveheart?
    _____
    Well that was Edward III’s grandfather… but yes.

  48. I don’t know why people are concerned about me. Frednk is claiming to be a descendant of Victoria and Albert. Which really puts my putative peerage in the shade.

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