It’s been three weeks since Newspoll, which more often than not means another one should be along tonight. On that note, academic Murray Goot writes in Inside Story that there has been an “unreported upheaval” at YouGov’s Australian operation, which conducts the poll, in which “virtually all of those working in the public affairs and polling unit” have left – including Campbell White, who had been its head since it took over Newspoll in the wake of the 2019 election.
Until then, here’s the usual weekly assembly of federally relevant preselection news:
• Paul Karp of The Guardian reports factional conservatives consider their preselection challengers “likely” to defeat Melissa McIntosh in Lindsay and a “good chance” against Sussan Ley in Farrer. Alex Hawke “may require support from moderate Liberals” in Mitchell, and the move against Paul Fletcher in Bradfield is “considered unlikely to succeed”.
• Matthew Denholm of The Australian reports Brendan Blomeley’s bid for the state presidency of the Tasmanian Liberal Party marks part of an effort by Eric Abetz’s conservative faction to gain control of the state executive with a view to placing Blomeley on the Senate ticket at the expense of Richard Colbeck, securing a political comeback for Abetz in state parliament, and potentially undermining the preselection of arch-moderate Bass MP Bridget Archer.
• Eli Greenblat of The Australian reports the front-runners for Liberal preselection in Higgins are William Stoltz, senior manager at cybersecurity firm CyberCX and associate at the Australian National University’s National Security College, and Marcus Pearl, Port Phillip councillor and former mayor and chief executive of financial advisory and consulting services firm QMV. Katie Allen, who lost the seat to Labor’s Michelle Ananda-Rajah last year, is reportedly keen to run again, but faces resistance because she crossed the floor to oppose the Morrison government’s amendments to religious discrimination laws.
• Party sources cited by The Australian’s Feeding the Chooks column report that a disputes committee of the Liberal National Party in Queensland is likely to rule in favour of Senator Gerard Rennick’s challenge to his narrow preselection defeat last month, resulting in the process being repeated.
By-election latest:
• Quicker than I would have expected, the Western Australian Electoral Commission has conducted its full preference count from last Saturday’s Rockingham by-election. This showed Liberal candidate Peter Hudson finished third behind independent Hayley Edwards, the latter overcoming a primary vote deficit of 17.7% to 15.9% on preferences to lead by 22.1% to 21.0% at the final exclusion. Labor’s Magenta Marshall went on to win at the final count with 13,412 votes (61.4%) to Edwards’ 8443 (38.6%).
• While the preference distribution is still to be conducted, the last remaining postal votes have been added for the Fadden by-election, confirming a two-party swing to the LNP of 2.72%. On Thursday, Phillip Coorey of the Financial Review related a bullish take on the result presented to the Coalition party room by Senator James McGrath, which noted an elevated swing of 9% in “booths where there was a high rate of mortgages”. However, this was selectively based on the LNP primary vote in two booths – taking the newly developed Coomera and Pimpama area in total, the two-party swing was 5.5%. Further, the suburbs in question are dominated not so much by mortgage payers (32.8% of private dwellings as of the 2021 census, compared with 35.0% nationwide) as renters (55.5% compared with 30.6%). McGrath also claimed a 3.5% drop in independent Stewart Brooker’s vote was a measure of how much Labor benefited from top position on the ballot paper, which at least triples more judicious estimates of the donkey vote effect. Overlooked was the fact that Brooker was part of a field of thirteen this time and seven last time, and went from being the only independent to one of three.
And just to add
During the last State election there were letter box drops in Ringwood (plural) detailing the previous event and the then MP for Burwood
The authorisation was not the Liberal Party but some unknown source
sprocket_ @ #91 Sunday, August 6th, 2023 – 11:56 am
Personally I hope they set a date soon and get things moving.
I am booked to have a knee replacement on the 9th of Oct and I want to have my say beforehand
And in regards mental health, I have a close friend who heads up a major business
His request over some 30 years now is that if we think he is acting a little irrationally to tell him because his meds may need review
And that has been the history
I’m not sure that a maximum sentence discount of 25% for an early plea is going to entice too many to take up this kind offer. But I guess, a further discount will apply for ratting on one’s co-accused provided of course one has one or more. That said, if you’re facing a long sentence – eg, importing a commercial quantity of prohibited drugs, a 25% discount when faced with a sentence of, say, 20 years is quite an attractive option even though you’d be looking over your back for quite some time.
https://www.sydneycriminallawyers.com.au/blog/what-is-the-early-appropriate-guilty-plea-eagp-scheme-in-new-south-wales/?utm_source=newsletter&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=week-32
That example I gave is not an appropriate one, as the offence of importing a commercial quantity of drugs is a Cth offence. In lieu, let’s say manslaughter.
”
subgeometersays:
Sunday, August 6, 2023 at 12:11 pm
C@t
The Assyrians were a trading nation which didn’t stop them being bloodthirsty warmongers. The Vikings were also keen traders as well as raiders. Extensive trade hasn’t stopped the US from going to war, especially for the oil. Some see mercantilism and militarism as blood brothers.
That said I can’t see China taking an overt part i this war
”
Indian colonisation started as mercantilism and ended with militarism.
The combination of the EAGP system and the District Court “Super-callover” lists has been extremely effective in clearing NSW District Court backlogs since 2018 Mavis.
Of course, the process is a bit like Sisyphus: as soon as the lists clear up, the backlog starts all over again.
Despite my own predictions at the time that the 25% discount was too skinny, it has actually proved to be a pretty effective tool when giving advice to a client in the face of a strong police case: largely because it runs in conjunction with the ability to negotiate charges that are either downgraded slightly from what the police originally charge, or in the case of multiple charges, where some charges are ‘rolled up’ into representative counts.
So, sometimes, the practical effect of the plea at an early stage of the process (ie. whilst the matter is still in the local court) can be worth up to 50%, when compared with the case where the punter – despite strong advice to the contrary – says “fuck it” I’ll take my chances at trial … only to lose everything.
The other advantage of EAGPs in my experience is that more often than not, only cases with some prospects of being successfully defended are taken to trial (leaving aside the bloody minded clients who aren’t for turning, no matter what). My own success rate as a criminal defence barrister is well over 50%; largely because I am usually saved the indignity of not having to run crap cases.
Andrew_Earlwood:
Sunday, August 6, 2023 at 1:18 pm
Thanks for the local perspective, Andrew. In Queensland, an early plea coupled with cooperation could result in up to a 50% sentence discount but I’m not sure if this is still the case.
In NSW a punter can get a combined discount for (1) a plea, and (2) assistance.
An early plea = 25%.
Assistance can be for intelligence (usually limited to around 10-15%), and/or giving evidence (which can range from 15 to 35% in extreme cases).
However becoming an ‘informer’ (whether as to intelligence or giving evidence) is a very dangerous proposition: no one likes a dog, not the least the criminal milieu …
Someone can also get a higher discount if they in effect ‘turn themselves in’ and disclose their own criminality in circumstances where police had NFI.
It needs to be stated that you shouldn’t turn yourself into the police if they have NFI. You should turn yourself into a lawyer, who contacts the police on your behalf.
“ It needs to be stated that you shouldn’t turn yourself into the police if they have NFI. You should turn yourself into a lawyer, who contacts the police on your behalf.”
Actually, a punter has a right to do either. My advice, as a criminal lawyer, is to seek legal advice and representation at the earliest stage, but it is surprising just how many folk walk into a police station cold, with advice or representation, to get things off their chest. Sometimes they do their interests irreparable harm, but in many cases the genuineness of their confession amplifies their contrition and remorse – which remain very relevant sentencing principles. That being said, on balance I advise such folk … to get advice and legal representation before fronting up at the cop shop.
wellrex forgot thatlidea thorp advicates a no vote but aparently if it fails its labors fault
If the Redbridge poll conducted for News Corp is indicative, it spells doom for the Voice referendum. Who is to blame? My view is that the “Yes” case has been poorly agitated thus far but I still think it’s not too late to reverse the numbers of 56 to 44.
Perhaps Albanese still has cards up his sleeves, but the worry is that quite a few Labor supporters are yet to be convinced. And it’s now too late to consider a legislative approach, which I think was the way to go in the first instance, in the knowledge that voters don’t like amendments to our paramount Act, where only 8 out of
44 referenda have been passed, made all the worse once the Tory & Country parties declared their opposition to it.
Drumgold has resigned. He has been on extended leave.
https://www.canberratimes.com.au/story/8297588/no-longer-tenable-drumgold-resigns-following-damning-inquiry-findings/?cs=14329
Mavis: “My view is that the “Yes” case has been poorly agitated thus far but I still think it’s not too late to reverse the numbers of 56 to 44.”
Talk shit about something for months and then wax lyrical on it being viewed negatively. aka the Murdoch method.
Interesting discussion I fell into, I’d just enjoyed Philosophy Tubes look at the law and policing and it seems a nice coincidence.
I must confess I posted something a few months (years?) ago that was worded as opposed to discounts for early guilty, and it was quite rightly negatively reflected on, which is good, or excellent in fact.
And I think I can refine what I objected to a little better, as I came across it particularly in specific, not scientifically aggregated US cases. In retrospect and the refining of my thinking, it wasn’t so much that discount for early guilty but the premium given for bringing down the ‘gang’, particularly in cases where the ‘lead’ actor in a murder pleads guilty and then gets by US standards a very light sentence, and the poor girlfriend who is clearly under no legal disability that would amount to an excuse, but is in most respects a passenger to the crime, and in some cases literally a passenger in a parked car while the actual murderer is away killing an innocent person, and the murder is out in 10 years while the girlfriend sits on death row until the execution or death.
Just an illustration and an exaggerated one, but every time I see that kind of fact pattern I feel justice has been failed not served.
Mavis says:
Sunday, August 6, 2023 at 2:06 pm
If the Redbridge poll conducted for News Corp is indicative, it spells doom for the Voice referendum. Who is to blame? My view is that the “Yes” case has been poorly agitated thus far but I still think it’s not too late to reverse the numbers of 56 to 44.
Perhaps Albanese still has cards up his sleeves, but the worry is that quite a few Labor supporters are yet to be convinced. And it’s now too late to consider a legislative approach, which I think was the way to go in the first instance, in the knowledge that voters don’t like amendments to our paramount Act, where only 8 out of
44 referenda have been passed, made all the worse once the Tory & Country parties declared their opposition to it.
__________________
Based on the breakdowns, we need Protestant church leaders come out in support. A 73% No result for those that refer to themselves as Protestant doesn’t look charitable.
https://twitter.com/KosSamaras/status/1687959998465474560/photo/1
“Drumgold has resigned. He has been on extended leave.”
I hope he still applies to have the findings quashed.
I hope the party who provided newscorp the extra ammunition suffers substantially more than Mr Drumgold, what was done should be criminal and involve a lengthy sentence.
”
Cronussays:
Sunday, August 6, 2023 at 12:28 pm
Lukashenko is being used as a patsy by Putin and runs a long term risk of losing his presidency to either Putin or to the Opposition if his strategy of allowing Wagner to act with impunity on Russia’s behalf continues. The weakness of Belarus is only highlighted in the current circumstances, they have no leverage whatsoever.
The stakes are being raised with a number of NATO countries through these actions and the risk of a mistake or miscalculation grows exponentially. Putin knows now that his only hope lays in doubling down, extending and even expanding the war but he has no control whatsoever of the outcome. He doesn’t even have control over Wagner or any of a number of other mercenary groups within Russia.
NATO is facing a very different scenario from any that it has previously planned for and it will require some careful planning to attempt to manage or control this this broader geo-strategic situation.
”
Putin is riding a tiger which he can’t dismount. When it comes to Belarus this expression comes to mind “Tiger by the tail ”
“Something too difficult to manage or cope with, as in You know nothing about the commodities market; you’ll end up catching a tiger by the tail. This colorful metaphor conjures up the image of grabbing a powerful but fierce animal by the tail, only to have it turn on one. [ Second half of 1900s]”
Pi:
Sunday, August 6, 2023 at 2:16 pm
[‘Talk shit about something for months and then wax lyrical on it being viewed negatively. aka the Murdoch method.’]
You’re right but that’s politics. It should’ve been anticipated that
Dutton would attempt to make political hay out of what are
benign amendments to the Consitution.
“You’re right but that’s politics. It should’ve been anticipated that
Dutton would attempt to make political hay out of what are
benign amendments to the Consitution.”
If it was anticipated then they wouldn’t have done it, the main consistent characteristic of Labor since Keating is a lack of fight and leadership, they thought it was a no brainer and that the Libs would support it. And yes that means they’ve learned nothing since 2007.
Edit correction: they’ve learned at each political difficultly the exact opposite lesson of what they should have learned and that rather than follow the LNP who fought at and beyond the extremes of Australian politics, and won, they somehow took a ‘run and hide in the middle’ lesson from every single loss, most of which were a form of running and hiding, even Shortens’ failed twiddling at the edges of all that was bad campaign hid more than it advocated.
Griff:
Sunday, August 6, 2023 at 2:19 pm
[‘Based on the breakdowns, we need Protestant church leaders come out in support. A 73% No result for those that refer to themselves as Protestant doesn’t look charitable.’]
That’s a shocking result for so-called Christians. I think the arch-conservatie Jensen brother have a lot to answer for – both feted by Howard.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Peter_Jensen_(bishop)
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Phillip_Jensen
Mavis: “My view is that the “Yes” case has been poorly agitated thus far but I still think it’s not too late to reverse the numbers of 56 to 44.”
Pi : “Talk shit about something for months and then wax lyrical on it being viewed negatively. aka the Murdoch method.”
Mavis: “You’re right but that’s politics. ”
WWP: “If it was anticipated then they wouldn’t have done it, the main consistent characteristic of Labor since Keating is a lack of fight and leadership”
I present exhibit A.
Where is that support for the voice from Bandt, anyway? Still waiting for someone to provide me a link.
Marianne Williamson’s campaign for the Presidency seems to be going from strength to strength:
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Marianne_Williamson_2024_presidential_campaign
WeWantPaul says:
Sunday, August 6, 2023 at 2:24 pm
“Drumgold has resigned. He has been on extended leave.”
I hope he still applies to have the findings quashed.
I hope the party who provided newscorp the extra ammunition suffers substantially more than Mr Drumgold, what was done should be criminal and involve a lengthy sentence.
_______________________________________
For the record, s17 of the ACT Inquiries Act 1991 provides:
17 Nondisclosure of information by members etc
A person who is or has been a member, a member of the staff of a board or a lawyer assisting a board must not, either directly or indirectly, except in the exercise of a function under this Act—
(a) make a record of, or divulge or communicate to any person, any information acquired by the firstmentioned person by virtue of that person’s office or employment under or for this Act; or
(b) make use of any such information; or
(c) produce to any person, or permit any person to have access to, a document provided for this Act.
Maximum penalty: 50 penalty units, imprisonment for 6 months or both.
WeWantPaul:
Sunday, August 6, 2023 at 2:24 pm
[“Drumgold has resigned. He has been on extended leave.”
I hope he still applies to have the findings quashed.’]
Given Sofronoff found that Drumgold lied to the ACT chief justice, among other serious allegations of misconduct, he’ll be very lucky not to be struck off. I think challenging the findings would be the last thing on his mind.
Albanese should have just legislated the Voice.
Asha
Marianne Williamson’s campaign for the Presidency seems to be going from strength to strength
Oh no! Just as she was going so well.
I am sure her next book will fly off the shelves.
Mavis @ #126 Sunday, August 6th, 2023 – 2:54 pm
From what have read “lied to the ACT Chief Justice” is News Limited’s interpretation of the report which none of us have seen yet, rather than the actual words of the report. Wise to wait until the text of the report is released I think.
Mavis @ #122 Sunday, August 6th, 2023 – 2:44 pm
The Anglican Church, including the Diocese of Sydney, has an official stance in support of the Voice.
“Given Sofronoff found that Drumgold lied to the ACT chief justice, among other serious allegations of misconduct, he’ll be very lucky not to be struck off. I think challenging the findings would be the last thing on his mind.”
Well if as it appears, Sofronoff has both failed investigate the leaks which were within his remit, and then actually provided information to news corp for them to continue the news corp political attack, surely he has created a reasonable apprehension of bias, making the finding Drumgold lied to the Chief Justice potential subject to review and if that finding goes away it seems the very best way to defend his practising certificate.
S.Simpson: “Albanese should have just legislated the Voice.”
Would have just been torpedoed by the Greens.
“Would have just been torpedoed by the Greens.”
Or perhaps the Govt would have agreed to a range of greens changes to improve it.
Lolz.
ajm:
Sunday, August 6, 2023 at 3:08 pm
[‘The Anglican Church, including the Diocese of Sydney, has an official stance in support of the Voice.’]
Judging by Griff’s post, it appears that parishioners have not yet received the official stance of their church leaders.
______________________________________
As for the Sofronoff leak, do bear in mind that both the Oz & Aunty were sent the results of his inquiry – ostensibly for balance. And moreover, I’m confident that the allegations of Drumgold’s professional misconduct have been reported accurately, bearing in mind that he has resigned. I’m off.
S.Simpson: “Albanese should have just legislated the Voice.”
Pi : “Would have just been torpedoed by the Greens.”
WWP: “Or perhaps the Govt would have agreed to a range of greens changes to improve it.”
Their stormtroopers would have railed against the lack of leadership of Albanese for not putting it forth as a constitutional amendment as per the Uluru Statement as a justification for blocking it.
WWP: “lolz”
I’m not laughing because it’s no laughing matter. Where is that support for the voice from Bandt, anyway? Still waiting for someone to provide me a link.
“ Well if as it appears, Sofronoff has both failed (sic) investigate the leaks which were within his remit”
They weren’t
“and then actually provided information to news corp for them to continue the news corp political attack”
He didn’t
“ surely he has created a reasonable apprehension of bias”
He hasn’t
“making the finding Drumgold lied to the Chief Justice potential subject to review”
It might be but not for that reason
“and if that finding goes away it seems the very best way to defend his practising certificate.”
His right to practice is not really in danger. When was someone last struck off in the ACT?
That would be as about as progressive as the Sydney diocese of the Anglican Church has ever been.
Independent MP Andrew Gee launched a stunning attack on the Coalition over its stance on the Voice to Parliament while at the Garma Festival.
Scott: “Independent MP Andrew Gee launched a stunning attack on the Coalition over its stance on the Voice to Parliament while at the Garma Festival.”
Andrew Gee has more integrity than Adam Bandt.
Where’s the speech by Adam Bandt at the Garma festival, anyway? Anyone have a link?
LOL Taylormade
Former Nationals MP Andrew Gee accuses opposition of using case against voice as fundraiser for the LNP
Aaron newton @ #113 Sunday, August 6th, 2023 – 2:06 pm
Well, given 83% of Greens voters are YES voters, I assume the remaining 17% are mostly backing Senator Thorpe’s progressive NO vote. I’m a YES voter by the way.
Now, given 46% of Labor voters are NO voters, are they all with Lidia Thorpe NO, or are they essentially L/NP racist NO …?
S. Simpson says:
Sunday, August 6, 2023 at 3:01 pm
Albanese should have just legislated the Voice.
______________________________
That’s not what the Uluru Statement asked for. But what would those Aborigines know about the bastardry of Dutton, the Liberals, the Nationals and the Greens?
Those figures are from todays Redbridge poll.
shellbell @ #137 Sunday, August 6th, 2023 – 3:34 pm
They’re pretty good on poverty, disadvantage, etc – it’s on the sexual morality stuff and role of women in the church that they’re completely off the planet.
If the Voice goes down I assume it will be because of the Greens?
Rex Douglas
Well, given 83% of Greens voters are YES voters, I assume the remaining 17% are mostly backing Senator Thorpe’s progressive NO vote.
Interesting use of the word “progressive” here.
Any Labor voting bludgers voting NO ?
Shellbell re Sofronoff responding to WWP:
and then actually provided information to news corp for them to continue the news corp political attack”
He didn’t
“ surely he has created a reasonable apprehension of bias”
He hasn’t
___________________________________
One can only speculate on the motive for Sofronoff providing advance copies to selected journalists, but there appears to be no doubt that he did. The Canberra Times reported:
“I provided a copy of the report to Ms Janet Albrechtsen and Ms Elizabeth Byrne, both those names undoubtedly known to you,” Mr Sofronoff was reported to have written.
“Each of them was sent a copy upon the express agreement by them that the copy was embargoed until the government had published it.”
Now I note that the CT said it had not sighted the actual letter Sofronoff sent to the ACT government, but it would seem that if the reporting in many outlets now is correct Sofronoff might have committed an offence under s17 of the ACT Inquiries Act.
As for the question of bias, it is not balanced to send a copy of the report to a “journalist” who has aggressively, almost savagely, attacked anyone who has taken Brittany Higgins’s side in this matter and who has relentlessly pursued Higgins and published text messages quite improperly and almost certainly illegally given to her.
The other recipient, Elizabeth Byrne, is a straight down the line first rate court reporter who gives no personal opinion and provides pretty accurate court reports on ACT TV. Has Sofronoff bought into the idea that the ABC is as far left as The Australian is far right and this is balance? I hope not, because it would reflect even more poorly on him and his judgment.
Shane Drumgold has a fight on his hands. If he committed the misconduct that Sofronoff has accused him of, then there is no justification, no matter the case. But some people here seem to think that Sofronoff has done nothing wrong at all.
Shellbell, perhaps you could comment on the intersection of the premature release of the report to at least one writer with a well-known position on all matters relating to this case and s17 of the Inquiries Act?
One for the road:
[‘ACT top prosecutor Shane Drumgold, SC, has resigned from his high-profile role following a series of damning findings made about him by an independent inquiry into the handling of the rape case of former Coalition staffer Bruce Lehrmann.
The territory’s Attorney-General, Shane Rattenbury, said in a statement on Sunday that he had spoken with Drumgold after the contents of the report by former Queensland Supreme Court judge Walter Sofronoff, KC, were made public on Thursday after being leaked to the media.
“Mr Drumgold and I agreed that his position as director of public prosecutions was no longer tenable,” Rattenbury said. “I can confirm that on Friday, Mr Drumgold sent a letter advising me that he would be vacating his position as ACT director of public prosecutions.”]
https://www.smh.com.au/national/act-top-prosecutor-shane-drumgold-resigns-20230806-p5duan.html
Shellbell:
I’m in agreement with your response to Paul save for your point that Drumgold is safe from being struck off. As you know, a legal practitioner’s first responsibility is the court. Accordingly, and
bearing in mind Sofronoff’s adverse findings (‘made public on Thursday), I’m confident he’ll be disciplined.
(Memo to find lead & walk dog)
I would classify Thorpe as “regressive”. Whatever cause she embraces, she takes it backwards.