The Age/Herald fills the Newspoll void with a Resolve Strategic poll on federal politics and the Indigenous Voice, and while it continues to record Labor well ahead, the margin is easily narrowest from this pollster since the election. Labor is down two from last month’s poll on the primary vote to 37%, with the Coalition up three to 33%. Labor’s previous narrowest lead out of twelve polls was seven points in two polls from September and October last year. The Greens are steady on 11% with One Nation down one to 5%. I make this out to be about 56-44 to Labor based on last election preferences, compared with around 58.5-41.5 in the last poll.
The narrowing is reflected in Anthony Albanese’s personal ratings, with approval down seven to 44% and disapproval up seven to 42%, comparing with his previous weakest numbers of 39% and 32% in September last year. Peter Dutton is steady on 31% and down three to 47%, and Albanese’s lead as preferred prime minister is in from 51-21 to 46-25. The poll was conducted Wednesday to Saturday from a sample of 1603.
The poll records no respite in the decline in support for the Indigenous Voice, with the no lead out from 52-48 to 54-46 nationally. State breakdowns that combine this poll with the previous one to produce presentable sample sizes have yes leading 51-49 in Victoria and 55-45 in Tasmania, and trailing 54-46 in New South Wales, 59-41 in Queensland, 56-44 in Western Australia and 54-46 in South Australia.
UPDATE: Further results from the poll published today find 33% rating housing policy important enough to call a double dissolution over, with 35% opposed. Given a choice between the government serving out a full term and an election being held early next year, 54% favoured the former and 20% the latter. I expect we will also have Victorian state voting intention results from Resolve Strategic fairly shortly.
‘Oakeshott Country says:
Saturday, August 19, 2023 at 7:19 pm
But let’s face it, the lasting and damaging impact was that Rudd’s ego did not allow him to accept the decision. There was no self realisation. Consequently he was a far more effective than Abbott as an opponent of Gillard. The party meant nothing compared to his pride.’
———————————————
+1
Oakeshott Country says:
Saturday, August 19, 2023 at 7:29 pm
Latham’s view on Ferguson
(I only quote this because it was next level vitriol)
As for Mar’n, the poor fu**wit can barely string two words together and get his tongue around the English language.”
————————
Latham was big on irony deficit.
Given the views expressed on here, was Shorten correct to have given Rudd life membership?
Did someone say Gillard’s bf was gay?
He seems to keep covering his tracks pretty well.
(wiki)
Tanner said ‘extreme and exaggerated statements were made by cabinet colleagues about Rudd’s management style’
_______________________________________
I was not going to comment on this ongoing circus, about nothing new has been said for years, but my bete noir has been summoned. I remain utterly convinced that it was Tanner who leaked against Gillard (not Rudd) during the 2010 election campaign. He hated her.
RGR is more entertaining than AUKUS
Found lacking at the pointy end but a great effort to reach a WC semi-final. Proud of the team.
Same here Rex. The Matildas should be proud of their efforts.
I think they just ran out of legs tonight.
ItzaDream
Did someone say Gillard’s bf was gay?
I was joking. This lie was among the morass of bullshit that was hurled at PM Gillard.
Lars Von Trier says:
Saturday, August 19, 2023 at 7:38 pm
Given the views expressed on here, was Shorten correct to have given Rudd life membership?
——————-
Do you think those in the Liberal party are still correct for allowing Turnbull remaining in the liberal party
Shogun @ #2259 Saturday, August 19th, 2023 – 8:10 pm
Yeah, I got it. But I thought his documented heterosexuality was fairly noteworthy!
US INTELLIGENCE LEAKS REPORTED BY WAPO AS ‘GRIM NEWS’ ACTUALLY POSITIVE – IF TRUE
“The Washington Post published a bombshell story today reporting that the “U.S. intelligence community assesses that Ukraine’s counteroffensive will fail to reach the key southeastern city of Melitopol.” The Post further notes that after being briefed on the intelligence report, Congress has split between Republicans wanting to halt additional aid, and Democrats and some Republicans arguing for doing even more.
While painted as a “grim assessment,” a close look at the supposed report doesn’t quite support that. Let’s take a methodical look at both the story and the purported contents of that report…
… The story begins so grimly: “Ukraine won’t reach Melitopol.” Then it says that actually, they’ll get within several miles” of Melitopol. That’s … not grim at all!
If Ukraine punches their way 47 miles out from Robotyne (which they still haven’t secured) through three major defensive lines and end up a few miles away from Melitopol, the counteroffensive will have been a rousing success. Just look at the map!
Remember, the entire point of this counteroffensive is to sever the land bridge. Let’s say Ukraine gets down to Myrne, north of Melitopol. That’s an 8-kilometer drive from Melitopol, or around 5 miles. It’s also 8 kilometers, as the crow flies, to the M14 highway, the only road connecting the city to mainland Russia in the eastward direction. All other roads in that direction will have already been cut off by the Ukrainian advance.
Eight kilometers is well within tube artillery and drone range. Ukraine can severely limit Russia’s ability to supply the city from that direction.”
https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2023/8/18/2188103/-Ukraine-Update-U-S-intelligence-report-pains-grim-picture-of-Ukraine-advance-or-does-it
ItzaDream
Yeah, I got it. But I thought his documented heterosexuality was fairly noteworthy!
My apologies, I did not mean to suggest otherwise. I think we are on the same wavelength on this issue.
When Julia Gillard was PM, I remember meeting people who were convinced (or claimed to be convinced) that her partner was gay. More likely, they did not care about the truth. They just wanted a slur to fling at Ms Gillard.
I agree. It was evident in the second half against England that they had given all they had. It was only a piece of shear brilliance by Kerr that added some gloss to it. Nevertheless, they have done us proud on the world stage and can all hold their heads high for what they have achieved.
The next PM is likely to be a female – interesting if the next female PM has the same reaction from the public as Gillard.
As Gillard herself said her gender explained some but not all of the reaction to her.
I’d think we’ve moved on.
Enough Already
+1 Ukraine only has to get to Tokmak to sever the last rail link to Zaphorizia from the east. If they can achieve that then in the long term all of the Russians west of Tokmak are in the same position those in Kherson west of the Dnepr are in.
Republicans are just selfish creeps, best ignored.
Lars Von Trier says:
Saturday, August 19, 2023 at 8:40 pm
The next PM is likely to be a female – interesting if the next female PM has the same reaction from the public as Gillard.
Who Lars? Seriously, I hope you are correct (it should be 50/50 of course) but who do you think this next PM of female stock is?
With respect to the question – yes, the next female PM will be met with similar vitriol, we are at heart a bunch of sexist racist conservative douchebags.
What’s funny is I asked why people left a political party and Rudd/Gillard was raised by people who’ve never been a Labor member as a reason they changed their *vote*.
The people who gave relevant answers didn’t mention it and yet again the blog’s been dragged into it.
*shrugs*
I thought I’d post this tweet, really cuts through to the essentials of what matters.
Dr John Woodward
@John_woodward1
·
Aug 18
I will not be alive to see an Australian Republic or the result of the Voice Referendum. I wish only that those who are hungry could eat, those without housing can be housed and that social justice & equity be restored between the rich and the poor. Then I could die peacefully.
Michaelea Cash takes Moore from Goodenough in 2025 and takes over from Dutton, winning in 2028.
I’d say Tania Plibersek or Allegra Spender (assuming she joins the Liberals in the next 3 years).
Sexist racist doucebags – wasn’t Australia the first country in the world to have women’s suffrage?
Some people – might say we (Australia) have all things considered run a pretty successful immigration program too.
Plibersek won’t be PM. I wish it were not so but she has missed the boat. She would be a great PM.
Spender won’t join the Libs. Why would she?
Cash? A lightweight.
It pains me to say it, but the next female PM is not yet in parliament. (Sam Kerr?)
We really are a backwater.
Prime Minister Cash….?
Language fails.
Don’t despair MABWM – there will be something better come after the reaction which is brewing atm.
maybi we could discuss duttons successor laz i think angus tayler is next in lynn hastie has no publick profile wonder if goodenough can hold on to more he got the seat thanks to michaelia cash she is from that seat he has been a mp since 2013 but seems to have achieved nothing collier and goiran are still in parliament despite wa liberals wipe out
Rewi @ #2268 Saturday, August 19th, 2023 – 8:52 pm
I’m sorry I couldn’t help you, Rewi. I don’t think I’ll ever leave the ALP. The alternatives are too gruesome to contemplate.
Rewisays:
Saturday, August 19, 2023 at 8:52 pm
What’s funny is I asked why people left a political party and Rudd/Gillard was raised by people who’ve never been a Labor member as a reason they changed their *vote*.
The people who gave relevant answers didn’t mention it and yet again the blog’s been dragged into it.
*shrugs*
____________________________
Total Bullshit. OC first raised it, after he gave ‘relevant answers’. Thus begat the discussion. Rex then mentioned RGR, then me and others started to give opinions.
Rewi,
That’s a vaguely plausible scenario.
I hope it doesn’t come to pass.
well speaking of liberal plotters james mcgrath a tallintles numbers man went from turnbullskey numbers man in 2015 to duttons key backer since 2018 he isabusing the femalesenate president over the farmasee changes and the liberals wonder whiy they lost the election
Shogun @ #2263 Saturday, August 19th, 2023 – 8:37 pm
Certainly no need for apologies. The sequence was I started a post on Gillard taking on the tobacco industry, ended up on her wiki page, which led to his wiki, and a bit of a wow who knew moment. Not ever meant to be contrarian.
https://www.smh.com.au/business/markets/weaker-aussie-dollar-to-raise-cost-of-overseas-trips-petrol-runs-20230815-p5dwo3.html
Cop that you privileged boomers!
Stop driving everywhere and have holidays in Australia.
The sooner a government comes in that fucks up your negative gearing and capital gains lurk the better off our country will be.
Selfish people, you’ll keep voting LNP for those reasons.
Lars Von Triersays:
Saturday, August 19, 2023 at 8:53 pm
I thought I’d post this tweet, really cuts through to the essentials of what matters.
Dr John Woodward
@John_woodward1
·
Aug 18
I will not be alive to see an Australian Republic or the result of the Voice Referendum. I wish only that those who are hungry could eat, those without housing can be housed and that social justice & equity be restored between the rich and the poor. Then I could die peacefully.
———————————————————————–
Only one party of government will ever achieve that Lars and it’s not LNP or Greens.
Ps explanation for my late arrivals.
Just getting back from the races after another successful day, hope you all did well too.
“ Dr John Woodward
@John_woodward1
·
Aug 18
I will not be alive to see an Australian Republic or the result of the Voice Referendum. I wish only that those who are hungry could eat, those without housing can be housed and that social justice & equity be restored between the rich and the poor. Then I could die peacefully.”
The inference that these things are in any way alternatives, let alone mutually exclusive, is the great lie of the No campaign.
The Queen of Spain is attending the Women’s World Cup Final.
None of the UK Royal family or PM are attending.
Prince William is president of the English FA. Weak.
https://www.sbs.com.au/news/article/royalty-and-a-nobel-prize-winner-wholl-be-attending-the-womens-world-cup-final/fqgi0o152
Socratessays:
Saturday, August 19, 2023 at 10:00 pm
The Queen of Spain is attending the Women’s World Cup Final.
None of the UK Royal family or PM are attending.
Prince William is president of the English FA. Weak.
https://www.sbs.com.au/news/article/royalty-and-a-nobel-prize-winner-wholl-be-attending-the-womens-world-cup-final/fqgi0o152
======================================================
All the more reason to go for Spain!
Go Spain!!!!
Maybe we could litigate Costello vs Howard. Maybe Keating vs Hawke. Or that all-time favourite Abbott vs Turnbull vs Morrison, with Hockey and Dutton in the mix. Also Nelson, but everyone’s forgotten about him and his 9 month stint as Liberal leader.
“Unknown: Cosmic Time Machine” – the Netflix (July) doco” on getting the James Webb telescope past 344 single point failure items is pretty amazing, developed under the shadow of Hubble needing its focus fixed by a man space mission, not possible with James Webb at 1.5M Km away in its l2 Lagrange point, and overseen by a Swiss scientist the son of a Christian fundamentalist pastor in a household where science was virtually taboo.
Dr Woodward must be in a bad way.
OMG, My heart is thumping at 120 beats/ min after watching Swans win the match by 1 point.
“From Mad Men to machines? Big advertisers shift to AI”
https://www.reuters.com/technology/mad-men-machines-big-advertisers-shift-ai-2023-08-18/
A person is unique. Groups of people are painfully monotonously predictable. When these giants start using AI for advertising, they’re going to feed in the results at a granular level. If they’re not doing it already. You think humans are good at working out how to sell things well? The science behind these systems is essentially breeding algorithms to be successful at solving problems, where the unsuccessful algorithms are killed off, and the successful ones are put through a stochastic process that slightly alters them. These things get bred for a purpose, and the unsuccessful ones are erased.
Think about it: How effective was ADVI at targeting its commercial? The one that it built with zero human interaction from a library of simulation models. Which cohorts responded positively and negatively and why. Why don’t we get it to analyze the traffic and match it with the response inputs. How about we get it to create 500x variant commercials and target each at specific cohorts. It will tell you which one to apply in real-time.
No-one will know how to tell reality from fiction. But imagine not having to deal with marketing and advertising people anymore!!! That’s gotta be a plus. Has that industry been disrupted yet?
Go Crows. A young team with little experience but plenty of talent and fight. A great game.
I am an unashamed Labor partisan. I’ve never voted for anyone else. I spent decades as a member and union rep. Having said that, I’d have to go back to Hawke to think of a Labor government that didn’t do things that upset my sense of decency.
I am a Labor partisan for only one reason. I hate the Liberals. Labor’s only point is to keep those truly awful people out of power. No one else can do that.
re: JWST
There’s a guy who created a science channel (Destin Sandlin) that is primarily aimed at kids, that has created a great run-down of the JWST. The channel is “Smarter Every Day”. His father was one of the scientists that worked on the telescope, specifically on the heat radiation shield. Starts the video off with it.
He created a youtube video that looked at it just as it was about to launch with an amazingly detailed breakdown of the way it works. But the way he gets the information is by interviewing Dr John Mather, the guy who would probably be considered the principal scientist on the project. From concept to delivery. He’s an amazingly gracious guy, and you won’t find a better source. In between the camera overheating while he’s giving the interview, it is the best 30 min description of the project that I’ve seen.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4P8fKd0IVOs
Enjoy.
As reported by MSNBC, a poll shows Trump’s in more trouble than the Bourke & Wills expedition:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=w7_9TojbN3g
Been There Done That!
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lelsyP9qL2I
Unhingery continues as ‘mister accordion hands’ makes a deranged video. Does this loser need help?
(Watch video,)
https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2023/8/19/2188228/-Unhingery-continues-as-mister-accordion-hands-makes-a-deranged-video-Does-this-loser-need-help
Trump’s latest rantings
“So now that I have full subpoena power because of the freedom of speech sham indictment by crooked Joe Biden, deranged Jack Smith and the DOJ, it has just been reported that the unselect January 6th committee — they are unselect indeed — of political hacks and thugs has illegally destroyed all of their records and their documents,” Trump claimed.
“So they took all of their records, all of their documents, they reported it, tried to get me indicted and probably did, and then they destroyed everything,” he continued. “This is unthinkable and the fake political indictment against me must be immediately withdrawn.”
RUSSIANS STRIKE THEATRE – KILL 7+, INJURE 117+
“At least seven people were killed and 117 wounded when a Russian missile struck a theatre and a central square in the northern Ukrainian city of Chernihiv, the interior ministry has said.
A six-year-old child was among the dead and their mother was seriously injured. Another 11 children were wounded, as were 10 police officers, according to the ministry. Twenty-five people were admitted to hospital.
People had been on their way to church to celebrate a religious holiday when a missile hit the city’s landmark Drama Theatre, the ministry said.
“A Russian missile hit right in the centre of the city, in our Chernihiv. A square, the polytechnic university, a theatre,” Volodymyr Zelenskiy, who was on a working visit to Sweden, posted on Telegram.”
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/aug/19/russian-strike-on-chernihiv-ukraine
When the fuck are the bloody fucking Russians going to stop this fucking shit?? They are a fucking plague. 😡
Some late but very good news for Ukraine, finally.
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2023-08-19/ukraine-will-get-f-16-fighter-jets-from-the-dutch-and-danes-afte/102751206
New thread.
Ven says:
….
“So they took all of their records, all of their documents, they reported it, tried to get me indicted and probably did, and then they destroyed everything,” he continued. …
————————————————-
What is this about, if anything?
I notice that, apart from Biden, Trump is no longer naming names in his sprays. The language is not pure Trump, either. They are either writing or vetting and re-writing his posts.
Interesting, new Verian NZ poll dropped last night showing a 4% drop for Labor (amounting to a 21% swing since last election) and an 8% lead for Nationals. Given recent polling trends for the Voice, October the 14th is shaping up to be the most calamitous night for the left since the Democrats gave McGovern the go ahead to run for President.
Given recent election results in Europe, I think its safe to say, to paraphrase the Púkel-men “the wind is changing against the left”.