The Australian reports that Newspoll will henceforth be conducted by Pyxis Polling, the company Campbell White and Simon Levy have formed following their recent departure from YouGov Asia-Pacific’s public affairs and polling unit, which had conducted the poll hitherto. Exactly how soon the new arrangement will spring into action remains to be seen, but it’s now five weeks since we had a Newspoll-branded federal voting intention result. We do have the following:
• This week’s Roy Morgan result has Labor leading 54.5-45.5, out from 53.5-46.5 last week, from primary votes of Labor 35.5%, Coalition 34.5% and Greens 12%. James Campbell also reports in the Sunday News Corp papers that a Redbridge Group poll of 1000 respondents conducted last week had federal Labor leading 55.6-44.4 on two-party preferred, and by 38% to 32% on the primary vote.
• The Age/Herald today has further results from last week’s Resolve Strategic poll on attitudes to climate change. One question directed respondents to pick one of three attitudes to climate change that best described their position: a serious and urgent problem demanding significant costs and sacrifices (45%, down six from October 2021), a gradual process to be addressed with small steps at a time (29%, up two) and one to be addressed only with action bearing no significant costs “until we are sure climate change is a problem” (16%, up four). The poll also recorded 59% in favour of the the government’s target to reduce emissions by 43% by 2030, with 19% opposed.
• Paul Sakkal of The Age reports Amelia Hamer, director of strategy at tech start-up Airwallex, former staffer to Senator Jane Hume and grand-niece of former Victorian Premier Dick Hamer, has been in discussions with party members about Liberal preselection for Kooyong. “Associates” of Josh Frydenberg are cited as believing he will run, but “some friends” say he is “more likely not to”. Other candidates might include Lucas Moon, who ran at the state election in Richmond. In Goldstein, “former MP Tim Wilson will probably run and will face a preselection challenge from Stephanie Hunt”.
• Troy Bramston of The Australian reports the vote at Labor’s national conference for its national executive has maintained the factional balance of ten positions each for Left and Right, with Anthony Albanese wielding the casting vote. A rebel Left grouping that forced the matter to a vote by running its own ticket, headed by United Firefighters Union Victorian secretary Peter Marshall, failed to win a position. (UPDATE: David Marin-Guzman of the Financial Review reports Marshall received 17 votes, two short of the quota for election.)
• The Australian Electoral Commission has published final and complete results for the Fadden by-election, including the full preference distribution and two-candidate preferred preference flow figures by candidate.
Reasonable observations on the Labor Conference on Insiders this am, IMO.
#weatheronPB
Sun, alone in blue,
sits unchallenged in the sky,
warming up to sting.
As reported in the Age & on ABC News Radio:
‘The state’s most recently appointed Supreme Court judge, Catherine Gobbo, claims to have been the subject of years of hellish intimidation by underworld criminals as a result of her disgraced sister’s role as a notorious police informer.’
She specialised in commercial disputes, corporations law matters, corporate and personal insolvency, and banking and finance, but unfortunately for her, she’s a dead ringer for her sister Nicola.
Wong to Speers after his interruption attempt – No, you use your words, let me use my own!
Media coverage of the deadly Russian missile strike on the theatre in Chernihiv includes this comment on the UN’s response to such Russian war crimes:
“UN Rep in Kyiv condemns Russian strike on Chernihiv, but so far UN HQ is silent.”
https://www.kyivpost.com/post/20724
The same outlet ran this companion piece:
“What Ukrainians Think About the UN:
What everyday Ukrainian citizens think of the UN’s responses, and lack of responses, to Russia’s barbaric actions since Moscow’s full-scale invasion began.”
kyivpost.com/post/20705
The gist: not a ‘thumbs up’.
Interview on ABC Radio National of Bernard Collaery on “The Year that made me”.
Am impressed by his integrity…worth listening to.
UK Cartoons – British media discover their Womens team edition:
Finally the Dave Brown in the style of Renoir:
The original Renoir:
At least on PB, the voice is 99%+ yes vote.
”
Boerwarsays:
Sunday, August 20, 2023 at 9:13 am
Ven
Is there any substance to every single document being destroyed?
”
BW
Firstly, I don’t know.
Secondly, we know that Trump lies consistently.
Morning all. Thanks for the roundup BK. On Ukraine I posted this story on the end of the previous thread.
Some late but very good news for Ukraine, finally.
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2023-08-19/ukraine-will-get-f-16-fighter-jets-from-the-dutch-and-danes-afte/102751206
Former French president Sarkozy’s remarks are idiotic, a guarantee of further wars. Russia will simply rearm in a truce and start a second campaign in a few years, as it did in Chechnya.
The comment on Putin coopting former EU leaders is spot on. Russia was paying former German Chancellor Gerhard Schroder millions and he still supports them. Corrupting people is BAU for Putin.
France has national interests which are not necessarily shared by other western nations.
It also has a self-identity of being an independent actor.
It should be remembered that France had very big military contracts with Russia that it tore up as part of its contribution to Ukraine.
‘BK says:
Sunday, August 20, 2023 at 9:25 am
Wong to Speers after his interruption attempt – No, you use your words, let me use my own!’
————————————-
She batted Speers away with ease.
Incidentally, if Speers had succeeded with several of his gotchas relations with China would have plunged immediately.
FMD
Shalilah Madora on Insiders has just declared that the Greens have succeeded because Labor have acted on housing…
Boerwar says:
Sunday, August 20, 2023 at 8:24 am
There was a great sign at the entrance to the kid’s footy yesterday:
It is a game.
Children are playing the game.
The coaches are volunteers.
The referees are human.
There are no-go zones from which the adults corralled.
and so on…
… I must say that I haven’t been to a grown up game of footy for a while but the behaviour of the adults at the games I attend has been almost uniformly good.
The kids? Not so much!
———————————
Last weekend I attended an Under 9s soccer game in Townsville. It costs each adult $5 to enter the broad arena to watch. The behaviour of the adults and children was fantastic given that there were more than a dozen games played simultaneously and not a cross word heard.
”
Enough Alreadysays:
Sunday, August 20, 2023 at 9:04 am
Ven @ Sunday, August 20, 2023 at 8:54 am:
[me]: “RUSSIANS STRIKE THEATRE – KILL 7+, INJURE 117+ …
… Why are they doing this, day after day ?”
[Ven]: “EA
Why?
Since Putin believes Ukraine shouldn’t exist they want to wipe Ukraine from the face of the earth.
I will ask a why?
Why don’t NATO allow Ukraine to launch missiles onto Russian cities?”
==================
Ven, that is a very good question. My belief is that Moscow has been generally successful in convincing enough people in the West that they would actually commit suicide and use nukes in Ukraine if NATO actually directly greenlighted and supplied munitions to strike major Russian population centres. I think this is a completely hollow bluff, but clearly enough people disagree to give Washington and Berlin cause to hesitate in being seen to ‘over-escalate’.
In the meantime, while the West is cringing away from an empty spectre, tens of thousands of Ukrainian civilians and hundreds of thousands of Ukrainian and Russian soldiers are dying from Moscow’s cruel attack upon Ukraine.
”
EA
The West knows that Russian political leadership and elite (other than Gorbachev and Yeltsin*) has been cruel for a very long time.
Yet they did not help leaders who don’t want to be cruel but enabled cruel leaders for some strategic benefits like Iraq war 2 and Fossil fuel from Russia.
Why should Russia be allowed to rain missiles on Ukraine and not the other way round. It is because they want to preserve their countries from war disasters and allow Ukraine to take all the pain.
*If West enabled and helped Gorbachev and Yeltsin, things could have been different.
Laura Tingle’s piece on AUKUS and shipbuilding is excellent. Having seen Rex Patrick’s article in Michael West it is more detailed but covers the same issues.
Regardless of which ships or subs we build, and which nations we partner with, everyone knows defence acquisition is in a mess, and has been for two decades. Navy lacks technical expertise to deliver complex projects. Now it is being asked to deliver the most complex warships known. Hiring PwC won’t solve it.
Under Marles’ ministry so far there has been no externally visible reforms to Defence acquisition. It won’t fix itself because that would require replacing senior people.
If I have a regret over arguing the scandalously bad decisions to favour BAE over France on the submarine and Spain and Italy on the frigate choices, it is that I did not highlight all the other systemic problems.
The 32 paragraph statement on AUKUS contains the same soundbites Morrison used two years ago. They are promises and reassurances that could have been developed by the characters of Rhonda and Jim in Utopia.
In terms of guiding what we are going to do, who does it, when, and how much it will cost, AUKUS remains a black box after two years. There are no details guiding how private industry can invest to partner.
This will not win Labor any votes. It may cost a few. As a minimum Marles will be damaged by it if he can’t get his department sorted out.
We are a very weak, unprincipled, slippery and hypocritical nation from an international perspective.
‘Rex Douglas says:
Sunday, August 20, 2023 at 9:50 am
….
We are a very weak, unprincipled, slippery and hypocritical nation from an international perspective.’
———————————————–
Deep!
‘Socrates says:
Sunday, August 20, 2023 at 9:50 am
…
As a minimum Marles will be damaged by it if he can’t get his department sorted out.’
—————————————–
The last dozen or so ministers for Defence have either not tried or tried and failed. Marles? Not even remotely in the race, IMO.
Boerwar
“ It should be remembered that France had very big military contracts with Russia that it tore up as part of its contribution to Ukraine.”
Agreed. I wasn’t criticizing Macron or the current French government. I was just pointing out how Putin has form in corrupting past leaders.
Not mentioned by any Bludger has been the$200 million Labor will be pumping into grass roots infrastructure for women and girls sports.
Especially not mentioned by the gaslighters has been the governance of this program. Decisions will be made by a panel of senior sportspeople and NOT by the Minister.
Compare and contrast Sports Rorts!
Rex Douglas @ #37 Sunday, August 20th, 2023 – 8:53 am
Labor policies are “Lib-lite” because they rip off the cardboard covers before adopting them.
It took Coorey to say something that the Bludger Labor Hater Claque could not say: this Government has already delivered a lot of reforms.
”
Rex Douglassays:
Sunday, August 20, 2023 at 9:50 am
AUKUS on @abcnews Insiders today and the Foreign Minister has no answers on nuclear waste, no answers on deliverables, no commitment to signing the nuclear weapons ban, no answers on how AUKUS makes us safer. Because it doesn’t.— David Shoebridge (@DavidShoebridge) August 19, 2023
On Palestine Labor keeps using the “urge both sides to peace” line as though there is some kind of parity between the occupying military power of the Israeli state and the disposed occupied people of Palestine. Also continued silence on the radical right wing Netanyahu regime.— David Shoebridge (@DavidShoebridge) August 19, 2023
We are a very weak, unprincipled, slippery and hypocritical nation from an international perspective.
”
Rex: We are a very weak, unprincipled, slippery and hypocritical nation from an international perspective
Me: Australia has been very weak, unprincipled, slippery and hypocritical nation from an international perspective under previous ATM LNP governments especially after Australia ditched France for AUKUS deal.
I can’t remember you complaining during that time because you did not.
Herald Sun 20/08
While the Premier said “not a dollar more’’ than the $380m would be spent on the legal settlement, he did admit the total Games bill had not “bottomed out” – but did not think the combined cost would go past $600m.
_____________________
We have gone from $380m to $600m in one day.
My prediction of $1 billion is not going to be far off the mark.
Final comment on AUKUS – the decision to adopt a sub with HEU reactor is not trivial in terms of nuclear proliferation. Whilst not in breach of the NNPT treaty, Australia’s example is already being used by others.
This article argues for SSNs which could be turned into SSBNs for South Korea.
https://nationalinterest.org/blog/korea-watch/south-korea%E2%80%99s-path-nuclear-submarines-206719
There’s hope for Assange, despite Blinken’s ‘curt words.’ Kennedy would not have put herself out on a limb unless she had Biden’s ear.
[‘US ambassador Caroline Kennedy told SMH on Monday that a plea deal could be on the cards in regard to Australian journalist Julian Assange, who’s been held in a UK maximum-security prison at the behest of the White House in prolonged isolation for more than four years now.
Kennedy said that as the US justice department is dealing with the case, “it’s not really a diplomatic issue” but “there absolutely could be a resolution”, although she did note US state secretary Anthony Blinken’s recent curt words as to the “very serious harm” the WikiLeaks founder had posed.’]
https://www.sydneycriminallawyers.com.au/blog/david-hicks-style-plea-deal-could-be-the-lifeline-that-julian-assange-needs/?utm_source=newsletter&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=week-34
Boerwar @ #73 Sunday, August 20th, 2023 – 9:59 am
Coorey was a pleasant surprise. Or maybe, he thinks Labor is.
These organisations need to be a little more vocal about it through all media platforms.
Rex Patrick utterly demolishes Labor’s AUKUS debacle …
https://michaelwest.com.au/marles-mauled-rex-patrick-demolishes-defence-sophistry-on-aukus-submarines-nuclear/
However, I had to laugh at this bit … does anyone know if it is actually true? …
Talk about punching above our weight! 🙂
ItzaDream @ #78 Sunday, August 20th, 2023 – 10:07 am
Coorey endorses another right wing Govt. I’m shocked ..!
‘ItzaDream says:
Sunday, August 20, 2023 at 10:07 am
Boerwar @ #73 Sunday, August 20th, 2023 – 9:59 am
It took Coorey to say something that the Bludger Labor Hater Claque could not say: this Government has already delivered a lot of reforms.
Coorey was a pleasant surprise. Or maybe, he thinks Labor is.’
———————————————–
haha. True.
Coorey did something you could not drag out of Rex or P1 with a herd of wild horses: the truth that this Labor Government has a lengthy list of achievements under its belt – achievements it wants to bed down by running successive governments and with more achievements to come.
Go on, Boerwar – give us a listicle. You know you want to! 🙂
What is becoming increasingly apparent is the Government is preparing the electorate for the need to seriously increase its tax take, citing aged care, NDIS, and climate change costs, and climate change costs, and climate change costs.
The other take out was the idea that if we’re going to have AUKUS, then Labor dealing with it is by any metric, the better one. And for it to be Labor, it needs to stay in Government, and to stay in Government, it needs to ….
ItzaDream @ #85 Sunday, August 20th, 2023 – 10:16 am
You reckon a GST hike is on the cards …?
I’ll give you one to start.
Penny Wong is foreign minster, not Marise Payne.
That, and that alone.
Rex Douglas @ #86 Sunday, August 20th, 2023 – 10:17 am
Hope not, it’s regressive imo, so I’m hoping for resources, and a hit on the super rich perks, called S something else.
”
Boerwarsays:
Sunday, August 20, 2023 at 8:43 am
Boerwar says:
Sunday, August 20, 2023 at 8:43 am
Ven says:
….
“So they took all of their records, all of their documents, they reported it, tried to get me indicted and probably did, and then they destroyed everything,” he continued. …
————————————————-
What is this about, if anything?
I notice that, apart from Biden, Trump is no longer naming names in his sprays. The language is not pure Trump, either. They are either writing or….
”
BW
The below article may provide some clues to your query.
Trump fail
https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2023/8/19/2188248/-Trump-Fall
Player One says:
Sunday, August 20, 2023 at 9:58 am
Rex Douglas @ #37 Sunday, August 20th, 2023 – 8:53 am
“There’s nothing ‘Lib-lite’ about the S3 tax cuts. It’s hard right policy of massive wealth re-distrubution to the already wealthy.”
Labor policies are “Lib-lite” because they rip off the cardboard covers before adopting them.
______________
Just like the changes to Superannuation? 😉
I am a Lions fan, not a Crows fan, but I agree the Crows were robbed last night. Channel Seven were pretty cowardly not broadcasting the critical angles to see that the Crows last kick was indeed a goal. Multiple posters on Twitter had views that made it clear. It only looked close if you looked at the wrong angle. Terrible goal umpire decision, followed by a terrible field umpire decision not to review.
If the AFL is going to continue with VAR they must get the procedure for using it correct, not just the technology. They need to switch to a system similar to cricket and NRL, where each captain gets one or two challenges a game to stop clangers.
‘Player One says:
Sunday, August 20, 2023 at 10:15 am
Go on, Boerwar – give us a listicle. You know you want to! ‘
———————————–
Memo: must do a list for housing.
Liberals, Nationals: nothing but a complete and utter national housing policy shambles. Could. Not. Do. Worse. If. They. Tried.
Greens yipping and yapping, blocking and whining. (Is Max the highest-earning renter in Australia?)
Labor builds.
Socrates
Unlike cricket where the pooter sensors both actual (snick noise) and predictive (radar-path of the ball) it is often impossible or the technology to tell what actually happens (finger tip or no), on the line or no, or glance the post or no, etc, etc, etc.
Just get rid of it altogether, IMO. More trouble than it is worth.
So, a successful and pragmatic national conference for a successful and pragmatic Government.
Now for detailed observations on the next Greens National Policy Conference!
Why Apple Is Manufacturing The iPhone 15 In India
https://www.forbes.com/sites/irenebenedicto/2023/08/17/why-apple-is-manufacturing-the-iphone-15-in-india/?sh=3c227e921afe
The worse thing about S3 is that bracket creep is not going to claw money back for some time. That 30% tax bracket! Of course Labor hate it, but have decided to eat shit over it.
A 95-year-old man who counts a 1926 Whippet as his first car, and who once delivered goods using a horse and cart, is being lauded as one of the oldest people in Australia to own and drive an electric vehicle.
Chas Renner, from Perth, says more older drivers should consider swapping to an electric car to unlock significant petrol savings.
https://thedriven.io/2023/08/20/more-older-australians-should-go-electric-says-95yo-ev-driver/
@Socrates – trying to conflate nuclear power with nuclear weapons is not an argument I respect. Australia is not violating the NPT by pursuing the AUKUS subs – even the massive hypocrisy of nuclear armed China could only claim that Australia was violating the spirit, not the words, of the NPT.
South Korea has considered nuclear subs for a loooooong time, nothing to do with us.
Rex Douglas says:
Sunday, August 20, 2023 at 8:53 am
There’s nothing ‘Lib-lite’ about the S3 tax cuts. It’s hard right policy of massive wealth re-distrubution to the already wealthy.
————————-
The S3 tax cuts are ludicrous. We should be making corporations and many people pay their due! (I pay well in excess of $100k per year in tax so none of this class war bullshit, thank you!)
But from a political standpoint Albo’s hands are tied.
The ALP agreed to them prior to the election in bipartisanship. They feel they can’t go back on it lest they be sheepled as promise breakers.
The s3 cuts are wrong, they are bad policy, but unless there is an election to overturn them, they are here to stay. You do remember the Juliar campaign do you not – and that was not even a broken promise!
That is Realpolitik.
Aukus is in the same (u)boat. A total boondoggle to which numpty Scotty has bound us.
My view, for what it is worth, is both should be jettisoned, but it ain’t going to happen.
Even if that is true it has to be balanced against the savings of not proceeding with the games. Obviously the government believes it will end up well in front on that score.