Weekend miscellany: The case of the disappearing preselection challenges (open thread)

Sussan Ley off the hook in Farrer, and Jane Hume thinks better of a bid for promotion on the Victorian Liberal Senate ticket.

Aside from developments in the Indigenous Voice referendum, covered in the post above, there are two developments to relate on the federal preselection front:

• Samantha Maiden at news.com.au reports Liberal deputy leader Sussan Ley will be spared a preselection challenge in her seat of Farrer after her challenger, Jean Haynes, was rejected by the party’s nomination review committee and suspended from the party for 90 days. The reasons behind this are unclear, but it comes after “a tit for tat round of expulsion motions in the Deniliquin branch of the party” that “included attempts to expel a group of party veterans who are loyal supporters of Sussan Ley, some of whom are women in the 70s and 80s who have given up to 50 years of service to the party”. Christian Ellis, who sought to challenge Ley’s preselection before the last election, has been expelled for bringing the party into disrepute shortly after pleading guilty to a firearm charge, with no conviction recorded. Contrary to other reports, Maiden relates that Ley “was expected to trounce challenger Haynes with over 70 per cent of the vote”.

• Rachel Baxendale of The Australian reports that Victorian Liberal Senator Jane Hume has abandoned a short-lived bid to elevate herself from second to first place on the Coalition ticket at the next election, amid conservative threats of retaliation by backing Greg Mirabella to take second position, potentially reducing Hume to third. Mirabella has recently relinquished his position as the party’s state president to pursue the third position, from which he unsuccessfully sought re-election last year. As Paul Sakkal of The Age described it, Hume’s move “pits her moderate wing against the Victorian Right faction led by figures including Paterson and lower house MP Michael Sukkar”. Hume owed her second position at the 2019 election to intervention by Scott Morrison that saw off conservative-backed challenger Karina Okotel.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

865 comments on “Weekend miscellany: The case of the disappearing preselection challenges (open thread)”

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  1. The fashion critic from the New York Times noticed what I noticed as well wrt Donald Trump’s mug shot and the Republican Debate:

    I couldn’t help noticing that while most of the candidates looked like Trump mini-mes, Trump himself, in his counterprogramming interview with Tucker Carlson, feinted left and was wearing … teal! A somewhat surprising choice, but one that immediately made the other Republican hopefuls look like followers.

  2. Ven: “Not a single house is built by Homes Melbourne, which is house body of City of Melbourne council.
    This is what happens when Greens political party controls a council.”

    I’m not sure where that came from: the Greens only have two councillors. Sally Capps group is the biggest, and she is the mayor. Capp was an executive director of the Property Council of Victoria, so hardly an Greenie.

  3. Ven @ #40 Saturday, August 26th, 2023 – 9:04 am

    So does it mean that under the leadership Ita Buttrose ABC was not balanced but was cowed by L-NP governments. Instead of being a public broadcaster it almost behaved like State broadcaster. Even after doing all these things it had to cut staff and programs because its funding was cut by LNP governments.

    Under Ita the ABC has become the tabloid version of a national broadcaster. It is a shocker.

  4. No, polling regularly shows a majority are willing to incur personal cost.,

    If that were true the “carbon tax” scare campaign would not have worked.

  7. Fess

    Trump is a deluded malignant narcissist!

    It has been a media circus.

    I will enjoy things more when the showstopper occurs.
    But based on how long things are taking generally. We could be waiting a long time. Lol!

    I hope not. I would like to think Jack Smith and co are close to shutting this circus down sooner than later,

  8. CNN: Georgia RICO Co-conspirators Shawn Still, Cathy Latham and David Shafer say they were following Trump’s orders, want cases moved to Federal court.

  10. RonniSalt
    @RonniSalt
    ·
    23h
    If you don’t understand how to write Yes or No in a white box, you really have absolutely no business deciding the future of our country

    Jars of vegemite have more complicated instructions than this:

  12. Ven @ #NaN Saturday, August 26th, 2023 – 10:07 am

    CNN: Georgia RICO Co-conspirators Shawn Still, Cathy Latham and David Shafer say they were following Trump’s orders, want cases moved to Federal court.

    Do these idiots not know that they will still be convicted under Georgia law? And the judge allocated to hear their case, if they manage to get it moved to federal court, is an Obama appointee? 🙄

  14. Steve777 @ #54 Saturday, August 26th, 2023 – 9:50 am

    No, polling regularly shows a majority are willing to incur personal cost.,

    If that were true the “carbon tax” scare campaign would not have worked.

    Of course it is true. Even the Resolve poll quoted shows 45% support immediate action even at significant cost. Only 16% are not willing to incur significant cost, but then that same 16% thought there was no evidence yet that climate change was a “real problem”, so you have to wonder what rock such people have been living under.

    The actual question is badly structured – very likely intentionally – since it only offers the option of “significant cost”, but previous polls indicates that those who support “gradual action” would also accept gradual costs.

    The carbon tax is not relevant here – that is about what type of cost would be acceptable, not whether any cost is acceptable. You can be in favor of action at cost without being in favor of a carbon tax.

  15. The republicans and their merry followers are doing their best to incite violence in the USA.

    No doubt there are those organising some type of domestic terror act.

    Hopefully the alphabet organisations such as the FBI, CIA etc are on top of this crap.

    There are so many loose cannons ready to act right about now.

  16. 100 percent

    ————————————-

    Garry Kasparov

    As I wrote 16 years ago, if you want to understand Putin’s regime, don’t read history books, read Mario Puzo. Mafia, violence, symbols, loyalty and betrayal. This is the murderous thug some fools still talk about negotiating with.

  18. Socrates 8:52 am

    “If Labor gives in on this it will lose a lot of votes. Legacy carmakers in the car industry want the government to adopt convoluted definitions of what a zero emitting vehicle is, to hide the worst performers. Bowen needs to quite stalling and act.

    If Labor doesn’t put vehicle emissions in place soon there will not be enough time before the 2025 election for importers to tool up and switch to EVs. In that case, there will be little environmental or political gain from it.”
    ————-

    Agreed. This is a huge test for the government of their real intentions in the face of the usual lobbying. The judgement will rightly be harsh if they fail this test. The longer it takes, the more concerned I become.

  19. Prigozhin’s Death Must Alert the West to Putin’s True Nature
    RELENTLESS
    The Prigozhin affair should underscore the nature of Putin and warn the West that we must avoid wishful thinking and take him ever more seriously.

    General Wesley K. Clark (Ret.)

    Was it merely revenge? A warning to others? Though his death is still to be officially confirmed, Yevgeny Prigozhin has likely met the fate of so many before him who have danced with Putin and lost his trust. But there may also be far more to the story, and no doubt more to be revealed. For its part, the Kremlin Friday denied that Vladimir Putin had ordered Prigozhin’s assassination—spokesperson Dmitry Peskov called such speculation “an absolute lie.”

    If Prigozhin’s initial “March on Moscow” was indeed a hastily planned spasm of anger at the Russian military, why wasn’t it stopped immediately? Could there have been some intent by “the center” to let it play out enough to identify and sweep up others of dubious loyalty, or was it truly a counter-intelligence failure at the highest levels? And if so, will some others, who should have detected his preparations but failed to do so, quietly disappear?

    Had Prigozhin sensed that his rising popularity had already made him a target? Was he manipulated by someone close to Putin to make his move—and then, before being eliminated, used to enable Russia to deploy more forces into Belarus and rope Belorussian dictator Lukashenko into greater support for Putin’s war?

    While we don’t know the inner workings behind the drama, we must be cautious in proclaiming discord and weakness inside Putin’s leadership circle. Putin has modeled his wartime leadership style on World War II Soviet leader Joseph Stalin: Every protest or dissent is used to identify ”enemies” and tighten control. He has arrested demonstrators, dampened the anguish of grieving mothers, eliminated oligarchs, tightened laws against dissent, and re-engineered even greater punishment for his leading political Russian opponent, Alexei Navalny.

    Putin has maintained control of the information space inside Russia, blocking news and communications with the West. He has wrapped himself in the Russian language of sacrifice and patriotism, and he has maintained the support of the vast majority of the Russian people. Unlike former Soviet leader Mikhail Gorbachev, he has thus far succeeded in evoking the deepest Russian feelings of pride, resistance, and resilience in the face of staggering casualties on the battlefield. Putin has no doubt been scheming and struggling to open a northern attack from Belarus against Ukraine, to break supply lines to the West and isolate Kyiv. The Prigozhin caper may turn out to have helped him advance this effort.

    https://www.thedailybeast.com/prigozhins-death-must-alert-the-west-to-putins-true-nature

  25. There is a lot of rumbling in the press about the lack of action from this ALP gov. 2 things.

    You gotta feed the chooks.

    I believe the voters are up for big reform. The lesson from 2019 isn’t to always present a small target. Yes, be wary doing it from opposition and if you do have a platform of reform, make sure you have the ducks in line – have the sales team and strategy that is up to it. But in government, the ALP cant look like they are sitting on their hands or tinkering at the edges or quietly achieving small gains. Sane and stable government only gets you so far in this media environment. The ALP have locked in some good changes and fixes. Small laurels compared to some of the big things that are long overdue.

    Ken Henry would know this intimately.

    one should also acknowledge that one piece of reform is sitting there ready to go. It is there because of this ALP gov. Yet! The media have been so useless in how they have covered it that the reform, as good as it is, may fail in a referendum. There is more than a little duplicity in how the media are crowing.

  29. Wise words from Jonathan V.Last at The Bulwark:

    Some of these people look befuddled. Or pathetic. Or like ghosts. Or, in one case, absolutely like a serial killer.

    But Trump’s mugshot is excellent. I would guess that he had a duplicate setup to run tests on. His makeup is exactly suited to the light and camera. His hair is teased differently than normal to provide some overhang. The jaw-jut and downward tilt of the head hide his jowls. Combine those affects with his slight turn to the left (notice that his is the only photo in which you cannot clearly see both ears) and it gives his pose a vague sense of motion, as though he is moving forward, towards the camera and into a glorious future filled with retribution, perfect phone calls, and #winning.

    He took a low point in American history and turned it into an iconic triumph because he understands media and is biologically incapable of feeling shame.

    Those powers make him a host unto himself and this mugshot is a warning to all of us.

    We underestimate Trump at our peril.

    It does not matter how buffoonish he is.

    Or that he is four-times indicted.

    Or that he’s an obese old man who dyes his hair strawberry blonde.

    Or that he can’t speak in coherent sentences.

    Or that his views on serious matters are foolish, cruel, or both.

    None of that matters because Donald Trump is a demagogue and an unusually skillful one.

    The demagogue is a character who repeats in human history and history shows that he can’t be reasoned with, or appeased, or coopted. He must be defeated, over and over, until the people who follow him give up on illiberalism and return to civilized society.

    Trump’s mugshot should remind us how high the stakes are and how formidable his threat is.

  30. “Rightly or wrongly, we expected the NACC to progress much faster than it has. After experiencing ten rotten years of scandal upon scandal, the National Anti-Corruption Commission was promoted as the fix-all solution to the problem”, writes John Lord who wonders why it is taking so long.
    https://theaimn.com/the-nacc-why-it-is-taking-so-long/

    What kind of insane attitude is that? Do commentators seriously believe that an agency can be legislated, set up, begin and complete investigations, and commence the metaphorical hangings in any kind of just way within the confines of a democratic society?

  31. Josh Barro has a very amusing and completely true take on Vivek Ramaswamy:

    Dear readers,

    When Vivek Ramaswamy and I were undergraduates at Harvard, students would sometimes talk about the scourge of “section guy.”

    “Section guy” wasn’t a specific person, but an archetype — that guy2 in your discussion section who adores the sound of his own voice, who thinks he’s the smartest person on the planet with the most interesting and valuable interpretations of the course material, and who will not ever, ever, ever shut up.

    “Be nice to that overeager Gov 20 section guy, for like many on Congress’ current roster, he may someday take the well-traveled road from Harvard to the Hill,” The Harvard Crimson warned in 2010, just a few years after we both graduated.

    Well, now section guy is running for president.

    Vivek was two years behind me, and I didn’t know him, which is a little strange given that we were both college Republicans and we were both obnoxious little shits.3 As I have watched his presidential campaign proceed, I have worried a little that my animus towards him — the strong desire I feel to punch him in his stupid fucking face — had to do with my own baggage from late adolescence; that when I watched him, I saw bits of my obnoxious teenage self that I have worked very hard to bury, and that my visceral revulsion was really more about me than it was about him.

    But last night’s debate — in which I watched several former governors react to Vivek on a debate stage in the same way that I do in my living room — disabused me of this notion. Me wanting to punch someone in the face might be a ‘me’ problem. But if Mike Pence, Chris Christie, Nikki Haley and I all want to punch the same person in the face? That surely has to be a him problem.

    https://www.joshbarro.com/p/section-guy-runs-for-president

  32. VCT Et3e @ #973 Saturday, August 26th, 2023 – 6:41 am

    https://apple.news/AZ4Zsf-vlR3GMYJ0p6rKzsg, They had trouble walking and driving, but when fire roared through Lahaina, the tight-knit residents of one complex were left to rely on each other — or no one.

    https://apple.news/A9tyXMH7NTBGVKAESSwDV9Q, “We don’t want to be the next Maui”, about evacuations from fire or flood zones down single roads

    Why aren’t govs focused on public safety?
    More safe corridors, instead of stadiums or moving attractions.
    Air tankers instead of subs.
    Civil defence/ SES instead of expanding AUDoD and allies and partners and friends bases.
    Less building in unsafe locations, floodplains included, communities with one tiny road in/ out.
    Rather than wedge referendums.
    First of all do no more harm, end exploration for fossil fuels, new mines, mine extensions.
    Upping efforts in context of IFCCC/ IPCC/ COP commitments of making sure to stay below +2C, may be less.

    Good comment VCT Et3e

    Govts continue to have their priorities all screwed up.

    Seems the main priority is to stay in power to serve their donors’ interests rather than serve the rest of us.

  33. I’m not sure how, but efforts must be made to incentivise change from within the Russian halls of power to manage out Putin. He will bring us all down with him if given the time.

  36. So, quick poll – who thinks Trump will be sentenced to imprisonment?

    (Not a question as to process – simply, will he actually be incarcerated.)

    I think yes. Sadly, house arrest at a private golf course. I’d rather the Tower of London on a diet of gruel and swamp water.

  38. “who thinks T**** will be sentenced to imprisonment”
    —
    I’m not a lawyer, but I think some of those charges have mandatory sentencing requirements, some including minimum prison terms. He currently faces 91 charges. That’s a lot of “incoming” he has to “shoot down”.

    My guess is he’ll “score” over a century just on what Jack Smith still has coming. And since he doesn’t want to go out with a whimper, I expect there’ll be opportunities for others to bring more charges too.

  39. @lateriser – I am a lawyer. I hope you are right! It is because I am a lawyer that I struggle with the question. He deserves jail. He attempted a coup on live television. Until I see him behind bars, I won’t quite believe it.

    The remarkable thing for me, was watching the Jan 6 riots and his speech immediately before it, where he stoked the crowd I said to Middle Aged not Balding White Woman – Wow – that is a crime! I hope he gets done for it.

  40. There is an army in Europe fighting right now to inflict defeat upon Vladimir Putin: the Armed Forces of Ukraine. Anyone who desires Putin’s downfall should support equipping that army with every possible weapon to achieve such a victory.

  41. Democracy at work within the Liberal Party….

    Deputy Liberal leader Sussan Ley spared preselection challenge after opponent blocked from running
    Opposition leader Peter Dutton says he supports Ley along with other Liberals facing challenge, including Alex Hawke, Paul Fletcher and Melissa McIntosh

  42. You can pretty well tell exactly how much people are willing to sacrifice their personal consumption for climate by checking to see whether:

    1. They have given up flying.
    2. They do not participate in the tourism industry.
    3. They do not eat meat.
    4. They do not eat dairy.
    5. They wear their shoes out.
    6. They wear their clothes out.
    7. They use public transport.

    If they say they are waiting for the government to make some rules then there is your answer right there.

    The usual marketing follow up on questions about willingness to pay is quite advanced in methodological terms because companies do it all the time. Usually this is done by graduations of money increments and/or graduations in time increments.

    The other cross check is also easy. The only Party that regularly goes the sacrifice route, the Greens, are voted against by around 90% of the electorate.

  43. Rex Douglas says:
    Saturday, August 26, 2023 at 11:35 am

    I’m not sure how, but efforts must be made to incentivise change from within the Russian halls of power to manage out Putin. He will bring us all down with him if given the time.
    _____________
    It’s more than probable that if Putin is replaced it will be by an even more unhinged chauvinist nationalist. Careful what you wish for.

  44. nath @ Saturday, August 26, 2023 at 1:26 pm:

    “Rex Douglas says:
    Saturday, August 26, 2023 at 11:35 am

    I’m not sure how, but efforts must be made to incentivise change from within the Russian halls of power to manage out Putin. He will bring us all down with him if given the time.
    _____________
    It’s more than probable that if Putin is replaced it will be by an even more unhinged chauvinist nationalist. Careful what you wish for.”
    ============

    This is exactly why Putin’s ouster should ideally be the result of a crippling military defeat of the Russian armed forces, so that whoever takes over lacks the tools to do anyone outside Russia any harm.

  45. nath @ #92 Saturday, August 26th, 2023 – 1:26 pm

    Rex Douglas says:
    Saturday, August 26, 2023 at 11:35 am

    I’m not sure how, but efforts must be made to incentivise change from within the Russian halls of power to manage out Putin. He will bring us all down with him if given the time.
    _____________
    It’s more than probable that if Putin is replaced it will be by an even more unhinged chauvinist nationalist. Careful what you wish for.

    ‘more than probable’

    If that’s the case, which I’m not convinced it is, then briefly is right that we’re all fcked.

  47. BW, I find that post problematic. You are asking if people will make some major cultural changes that will contribute absolutely nothing to mitigating climate change unless everyone does it. It isn’t a fair criteria to judge someones serious to sacrifice.

    If you said, “would you drastically reduce meat consumption (and or accept feedlot cruelty in your meal) if everyone did that and it would make a difference” I would be fine with it.

    This playing people off against each other is a tactic implemented by the oil industry. It will fail to reduce emissions. Heck, some people might increase their consumption just to make a political point.

    Only coordinated, economy wide, and hopefully global, change is required and that needs to be led by politicians of honourable character and/or forced on them by the voting public. We need to stop electing dodgy a-holes. Get our house in order, join with like minded States, help poorer states and then pressure the wealthy global recalcitrants.

  49. ”
    Rex Douglassays:
    Saturday, August 26, 2023 at 11:35 am
    I’m not sure how, but efforts must be made to incentivise change from within the Russian halls of power to manage out Putin. He will bring us all down with him if given the time.
    ”

    Rex
    Don’t you think he has already done that i.e. “bring us all down “?

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