Resolve Strategic: Labor 36, Coalition 34, Greens 12 (open thread)

Labor still well ahead on voting intention, but Resolve Strategic records prime ministerial approval in net negative territory and an ongoing decline in support for an Indigenous Voice.

Courtesy of the Age/Herald, the latest monthly federal voting intention numbers from Resolve Strategic have with Labor down a point to 36%, the Coalition up one to 34%, the Greens up one to 12% and One Nation steady on 5%. As ever, no two-party preferred result is provided, but I make it to be 55-45 to Labor based on 2022 election preferences compared with about 55.5-44.5 last time.

As with last week’s Newspoll, the poll gives Anthony Albanese his first net negative personal rating as prime minister, with approval down four to 40% and disapproval up five to 47%. Peter Dutton is up four to 35% and down one to 44%, with Albanese retaining a 43-28 lead as preferred prime minister, in from 46-25.

The worst news for the government comes once again from the Indigenous Voice, with a forced response question now putting no ahead 57-43, out from 54-46 a month ago. A question allowing for an uncommitted response has no leading 49% to 35%. Combining this month’s results with last month’s to get reasonable sub-samples, no leads 56-44 in New South Wales, 51-49 in Victoria, 61-39 in Queensland and Western Australia and 59-41 in South Australia, with yes leading only in Tasmania by 56-44 off a particularly small sample.

The poll was conducted Wednesday to Saturday from a sample of 1604.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,113 comments on “Resolve Strategic: Labor 36, Coalition 34, Greens 12 (open thread)”

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  1. Steve777 says:
    Wednesday, September 13, 2023 at 10:52 am
    ”The information age is over. The misinformation age is at hand.“

    The “hand” which the disinformation age is at is holding the rearview mirror.

    Also, a subtle distinction.

    * “Misinformation” is stuff that is just wrong, possibly the result of an honest mistake, sloppy research or the like, without the intention to deceive. There’s a lot of it about, not least in the popular media.

    *”Disinformation” is false information which is deliberately intended to mislead—intentionally misstating the facts. There’s a lot of that about too.

    _____________

    Definitely a bit of this and a bit of that!

  2. An inquiry probing links between former cabinet minister Stuart Robert, key Liberal Party fundraisers and consulting firm Synergy 360 has asked the National Anti-Corruption Commission to take over investigating possible conflicts of interest in government contract decisions. Warning it lacks sufficient powers to investigate “serious and systemic” allegations related to the former Queensland MP and procurement and lease deals at the National Disability Insurance Agency and Services Australia, federal parliament’s Joint Public Accounts and Audit committee said the newly founded NACC should take over.
    Key to the referral – announced by committee chairman and Labor MP Julian Hill on Wednesday – is compulsory questioning and document gathering powers held by the NACC, but not parliamentary committees.
    Mr Hill used an interim report to say his inquiry lacked some powers and resources, including forensic accounting expertise. Labor MPs control the committee, which also has Liberal and Greens members.
    “A referral to the National Anti-Corruption Commission by a parliamentary committee should never be made lightly and certainly is not done so here,” Mr Hill said. “In these circumstances, however, there appears no other appropriate course of action.”
    https://www.afr.com/politics/federal/robert-referred-to-anti-corruption-commission-20230912-p5e430

  3. Apologies. I’m on a mega dose short term tapered course of steroids for a post-Covid complication and, predictably, as high as a kite, going a million miles an hour, and likely to continue to embarrassingly over-post.

  4. Interestingly, although the 1967 referendum gave the Commonwealth government power to legislate on indigenous population, the powers to do so were included as part of the 1944 Referendum which went down (for manifold reasons however). The 1967 referendum would probably have passed much earlier if it had been put to the population.

  5. From The Atlantic:

    The Fourteenth Amendment versus the 45th president

    For weeks, legal scholars and public intellectuals have been debating whether Donald Trump is constitutionally ineligible to run for president again. Six voters in Colorado filed a lawsuit last week that will test this theory. If you’re confused, or uncertain whether this is a good idea, join the club: I change my mind about it roughly once every 12 hours.

    https://www.theatlantic.com/newsletters/archive/2023/09/trump-2024-fourteenth-amendment-colorado-lawsuit/675297/?

  6. C@tmomma @ #779 Wednesday, September 13th, 2023 – 10:12 am

    I believe that the Progressive No people believe in progressing their cause through the revolution, as opposed to evolution, means. Even though, if you look at it from a practical pov, there can never be, at a fraction of the 3% of the population that is Indigenous, for the Progressive No group, led by the Sovereign Blak Citizen movement, any chance of success for them on the horizon.

    They need to learn the one about perfect being the enemy of good. Revolution has no realistic chance of happening, and by opposing the referendum they’re going to end up with no Treaty, no Voice, nothing.

    “Progressive” is supposed to mean something more than staying in one place unless/until you can jump directly to utopia.

  7. Langton called the police and social workers racist a couple of mths back, this is turning into a total disaster. Considering she is one of the co-authors, Albo you need to pull this and right now. Its only going to get more divisive.

  8. HH

    “Key to the referral – announced by committee chairman and Labor MP Julian Hill on Wednesday – is compulsory questioning and document gathering powers held by the NACC, but not parliamentary committees.”

    Good thinking Julian Hill. I also heard Julian Hill question the BAE CEO at the inquiry into the Hunter frigate contract last week. Hill was excellent value then, asking probing questions in John-Faulkner style, for those who remember him.

    The Hunter frigate managers really do have questions to answer over cost overruns. At the inquiry the BAE CEO deflected questions over cost overruns by pointing out that steel costs had nearly doubled. With Hunters now weighing 8,300 tonnes dry, that is $16 million per ship, perhaps $140 million over the contract. This is around 1.5% of the reported $10+ billion cost increase. What about the other 98.5% BAE?

  9. michael says:
    Wednesday, September 13, 2023 at 11:18 am
    Langton called the police and social workers racist a couple of mths back, this is turning into a total disaster. Considering she is one of the co-authors, Albo you need to pull this and right now. Its only going to get more divisive.

    _______________________________________

    These hypocritical racists pigs on the right really know how to pile it on. Michael, whoever you really are, you are a despicable bastard whose natural home is the nazi party.

  10. For weeks, legal scholars and public intellectuals have been debating whether Donald Trump is constitutionally ineligible to run for president again. Six voters in Colorado filed a lawsuit last week that will test this theory. If you’re confused, or uncertain whether this is a good idea, join the club: I change my mind about it roughly once every 12 hours.

    It’s a very good idea.

    Is there any doubt that Trump attempted a coup? Any doubt that at least 1 of of his 91 criminal charges will return a guilty verdict? Is it not established fact that he’s sexually assaulted at least one woman?

    If there’s any case whatsoever for excluding anyone, anywhere, ever from holding high office, Donald Trump is the perfect textbook example of someone that should be excluded. You won’t find a worse degenerate without getting into the ranks of ‘people who’ve attempted or committed genocide’.

    I mean, this challenge will never survive in the courts, but it’s 100% a very good idea.

  11. michael
    Langton called the police and social workers racist a couple of mths back, this is turning into a total disaster. Considering she is one of the co-authors, Albo you need to pull this and right now. Its only going to get more divisive.

    Thank goodness we have the wonderful people at ‘Fair Australia’ to counter all this divisiveness. When you next meet up with the folks at ‘Fair Australia’, please convey my thanks.

  12. “Labor MP and former TWU secretary Tony Sheldon (who is one of only a handful of MPs not to have accepted a Qantas chairman’s lounge invitation) has also responded to the high court decision and said the Coalition also needed to apologise to the workers”

    Well, well, only a handful out of 150 odd, that tells us all we need to know about our politicians. Some might call it ‘being on the take’.

  13. michaelsays:
    Wednesday, September 13, 2023 at 11:18 am
    Langton called the police and social workers racist a couple of mths back, this is turning into a total disaster. Considering she is one of the co-authors, Albo you need to pull this and right now. Its only going to get more divisive

    .

    I agree that Langton’s choice of words hasn’t helped. But it’s out there now. The damage is already done and it’s far too late to pull the referendum. I don’t think there’s very much Albo can do to try and rescue the situation.

  14. Well the Liberals didn’t pull Michael Sheahan out of heading up their ‘No’ campaign after the clearly racist cartoon that appeared in The Australian Financial Review. So my message to michael is, people in glass houses shouldn’t throw stones at Marcia Langton because she’s absolutley correct about the racial element of the No campaign.

  15. Sohar @ #813 Wednesday, September 13th, 2023 – 11:39 am

    “Labor MP and former TWU secretary Tony Sheldon (who is one of only a handful of MPs not to have accepted a Qantas chairman’s lounge invitation) has also responded to the high court decision and said the Coalition also needed to apologise to the workers”

    Well, well, only a handful out of 150 odd, that tells us all we need to know about our politicians. Some might call it ‘being on the take’.

    And other people would say that you have absolutely no evidence for that slur.

  16. It’s the bigness of The Big that puts our smallness into perspective, and I often wonder if we will not overcome our petty boundaries until we see ourselves from a far off place. Those who have left Earth’s gravity have described the transcendental effect of perspective.

    Until then, we are left with other means. Music is one, the pre-eminent one for many, maybe most.

    Bachakademieaustralia in their upcoming concert will seek to bring together the great Western traditions with the great Indigenous traditions under the common guiding light of The Morning Star.

    Inspired by the Morning Star, Venus, the program curated by founding artistic director Madeleine Easton features astral-themed pieces by JS Bach, Tomás Luis de Victoria and Vincenzo Galilei, lutenist, composer, and father of astronomer Galileo Galilei. Nestled among these pieces which reach back in time, is a new commission, Clans – also inspired by the Morning Star – composed by Indigenous musician Troy Russell.

    To truly understand a culture, we must explore its relationship to the land, but also to the skies. The land and sky are as one, forever connected. It is with a spirit of connectivity that we present this program of music inspired by the heavenly body that both J.S. Bach and the First Nations peoples of Australia have seen every day for millennia – the Morning Star. We are an ensemble dedicated to the works of J.S. Bach, however we are Bach Akademie Australia, therefore seek to unite the incredibly important musical cultures of Europe with the country we stand on by presenting a program of music by Bach and other important composers inspired by the heavens, alongside a newly commissioned work by Australian Indigenous composer Troy Russell, inspired by the Morning Star, just as J.S. Bach was centuries ago.

    Bach Akademie Australia presents Bach – A Child of the Stars on 22 September, The University of Sydney Great Hall; 23 September, St Finbar’s Catholic Church, Glenbrook, and 24 September, Our Lady of Dolours Catholic Church, Chatswood.

    (disclaimer: audience member only, and seeker of joining)

    https://limelightmagazine.com.au/features/guided-by-the-morning-star/
    https://www.bachakademieaustralia.com.au/events/bach-a-child-of-the-stars-concert-1

  17. TPOF @ #809 Wednesday, September 13th, 2023 – 11:23 am

    michael says:
    Wednesday, September 13, 2023 at 11:18 am
    Langton called the police and social workers racist a couple of mths back, this is turning into a total disaster. Considering she is one of the co-authors, Albo you need to pull this and right now. Its only going to get more divisive.

    _______________________________________

    These hypocritical racists pigs on the right really know how to pile it on. Michael, whoever you really are, you are a despicable bastard whose natural home is the nazi party.

    He could be Michael Sheahan, TPOF. The guy that commissioned and placed the actually racist cartoon in the AFR for the No campaign.

    It’s as obvious as tits on a bull to me as well that Dutton and the No campaign are following the playbook they employed to get Kevin Rudd to back down from ‘the greatest moral challenge of our generation’. It’s not going to work because the PM was there and he knows what they’re up to. Which is why, I think, he made a point of releasing the photo of the writs for the referendum being signed by the GG yesterday. It was a none too subtle message to Dutton the Dissembling Disinformation Destabiliser, that he’s got between Buckley’s and none of getting his wish.

  18. Remember when Musk called the rescue guy in the cave rescue a ‘p*do’? He (Musk) won in the courts on the basis that it was a general pejorative, and didn’t literally mean the guy was a p*dophile, anymore than calling someone a (language alert) a motherfucker meant that you thought they fucked their mothers.

    Like ‘bastards’ aren’t all bastards, and ‘racists’ aren’t all literally racists.

  19. In order to protect its profitability in light of the inevitable costs associated with its High Court loss, would Qantas be greedy enough to raise its prices?

  20. The Constitutional thing against Trump is a waste of time. Remind me again who’s on the Supreme Court with ultimate authority on US constitutional interpretation? They will have no problem throwing it out even if a lower court gives credence to the argument.

  21. A co-founder of the fraudulent OneCoin cryptocurrency has been sentenced to serve 20 years in a US prison. Sebastian Karl Greenwood colluded with others, including the so-called “Cryptoqueen” who is now on the FBI’s top 10 Most Wanted list, officials say. They are accused of scamming more than $4bn (£3.2bn) from investors.

  22. For those looking at the potential Constitutional blocks to Trump’s election, the answer is in the article. If that’s not loading, let me know and I’ll do the big copy and paste thing.

  23. Itza- Musk won in the American courts where defamation is very difficult to bring due to the First Amendment. Also frankly it sounded like the cave guy’s lawyers were shit (for a start – sue in England where defamation is much easier to land!). And Musk had long since deleted the tweets and apologised. Between all those factors I wouldn’t rely much on the Musk case as an example of how defo works compared to England or Australia.

  24. Ven @9:05
    A nonce is a paedophile so I am not sure who Borewar was exposing but it can also be used for “this particular purpose” which doesn’t really make sense to me.
    Maybe he ment anon – as a final comment before leaving.

  25. Arky @ #826 Wednesday, September 13th, 2023 – 12:10 pm

    Itza- Musk won in the American courts where defamation is very difficult to bring due to the First Amendment. Also frankly it sounded like the cave guy’s lawyers were shit (for a start – sue in England where defamation is much easier to land!). And Musk had long since deleted the tweets and apologised. Between all those factors I wouldn’t rely much on the Musk case as an example of how defo works compared to England or Australia.

    Yes. I was just making a general broad brush point.

  26. I tend to listen to community radio. Less ads and DJs.

    There’s this group called the national radio news network. Anyone know who funds them? They seem to always lead with a story about the government and then has the coalitions spokes person getting an audio spot blathering away.

  27. Sohar says:
    Wednesday, September 13, 2023 at 11:39 am

    “Labor MP and former TWU secretary Tony Sheldon (who is one of only a handful of MPs not to have accepted a Qantas chairman’s lounge invitation) has also responded to the high court decision and said the Coalition also needed to apologise to the workers”
    _____________
    good for him. If only others had followed his example. The Qantas entanglements have hit Labor.

  28. The HAFF is about to pass the Senate, with the Government, Greens and independents having a solid 34 votes, and winning all the preliminary votes.

    Senator Ruston is wasting everyone’s time by trying delaying tactics, to no avail.

  29. C@tmomma says:
    Wednesday, September 13, 2023 at 11:48 am

    “”””””
    Sohar @ #813 Wednesday, September 13th, 2023 – 11:39 am

    “Labor MP and former TWU secretary Tony Sheldon (who is one of only a handful of MPs not to have accepted a Qantas chairman’s lounge invitation) has also responded to the high court decision and said the Coalition also needed to apologise to the workers”

    Well, well, only a handful out of 150 odd, that tells us all we need to know about our politicians. Some might call it ‘being on the take’.

    “”””””
    And other people would say that you have absolutely no evidence for that slur.

    __________________________________

    I think Sohar is hoping to be hired by “Advance Australia” and he’s practising his evidence-free not-quite accusations.

  30. @BK: “I suspect there is a significant congruence between commercial breakfast TV and social media of the TikTok and Facebook-type users.”

    As I used to say to people insisting that the Murdoch media’s influence is completely dead and everything is on Facebook etc now, where do people think the stuff on social media comes from originally?

    I think there was a bit of a lull where the conservatives simply weren’t very good at bridging from newspapers and breakfast TV into social media , but that’s gone now.

    There was a piece somewhere this week (probably on The Age) which made the point that “No” sources have absolutely flooded TikTok and Instagram with slick material with tons of views while Yes just has turgid official videos nobody watches.

    There’s going to be stories to come out after this referendum about horrendous mismanagement of the Yes campaign, I can just feel it. I don’t know what they’re spending their money on, but it currently seems to be “nothing”.

  31. ItzaDream @ #825 Wednesday, September 13th, 2023 – 12:05 pm

    For those looking at the potential Constitutional blocks to Trump’s election, the answer is in the article. If that’s not loading, let me know and I’ll do the big copy and paste thing.

    I don’t know about that. The article suggests the answer is to give Trump “a resounding and undeniable defeat at the ballot box”.

    But…that’s called the 2020 election. Losing it clearly hasn’t made Trump go away. So now we have to vote against him every 4 years until he dies, just to prove that “no really, we don’t want more Trump”? Put up with his lies, his criminality, his attempts to seize power by any means; and purely because he’s got some supporters and they might throw a fit if Trump is ever actually subject to the most basic level of accountability that applies to everybody else? Nah.

    Also the article sets up a bit of a false/exaggerated dilemma by assuming if Trump is disqualified from the ballot the election will be Biden running unopposed. But primaries haven’t even started yet! The GOP can nominate someone else. Should nominate someone else if Trump is disqualified. Should nominate someone else regardless. Would probably win handily against Biden if they do.

    Or if they insisted on standing Trump knowing he’s not allowed on the ballot, then that bit of stupidity would be entirely on them, and they’d have zero basis for crying “illegitimate election”. Everyone under 35 is forbidden from being President, no matter how popular. It’s ludicrously insulting to basically the entire cohort to suggest that Trump is better qualified and more entitled to be president than every single one of them.

    P.S. “nonce” is a single-use authentication code for securing various communications protocols and mechanisms. Helps prevent request forgery and replay attacks.

  32. Michael @11:18.

    ”Langton called the police and social workers racist a couple of mths back, this is turning into a total disaster. Considering she is one of the co-authors…”

    Is it true? When? Who? Specific people or just in general? Were they in fact racist? I can believe it of some police at least. What was the context?

    It is of course possible that out of frustration and exasperation, some good people may have momentarily given in to temptation to get down in the mud to fight the pig.

    Albo you need to pull this and right now.

    No he doesn’t, nor will he.

    ”Its only going to get more divisive.”

    Then stop dividing.

  33. ‘Player One says:
    Wednesday, September 13, 2023 at 9:29 am

    Boerwar @ #752 Wednesday, September 13th, 2023 – 8:44 am

    P1


    …It simply astonishes me that some people still think this is just a political issue. It is an existential issue.’
    ——————
    True. If only governments/individuals recognized that tourism is an expensive and selfish luxury that contributes 8% to our existential issue.

  34. FFS.

    There is nothing genderized about it.

    ‘For the nonce’ means ‘for the present; temporarily or for the occasion’.

    See Hamlet Act 4, Scene 7.

  35. >True. If only governments/individuals recognized that tourism is an expensive and selfish luxury that contributes 8% to our existential issue.

    If only governments/individuals recognized that personal transport is an expensive and selfish luxury that contributes 20% to our existential issue.

  36. I don’t get breakfast TV. I haven’t watched it on the commercial networks for a while but as I recall it was basically infomercials and cross-promotion with bits of tabloid style “news” and celebrity trivia. It was tied together by jokey banter and frequently interrupted by breaks for more advertising and cross-promotion. For some reason the ABC Breakfast program sees a need to replicate the jokey banter.

    Then there’s Tik Tok, which seems to comprise short videos of random people, mostly teens, doing random silly stuff. I had a look at it when I noticed it had popped up on my Ipad. I haven’t had the urge to go back, apart from following the occasional link from here or other sites I visit.

  37. ‘Catprog says:
    Wednesday, September 13, 2023 at 12:58 pm

    >True. If only governments/individuals recognized that tourism is an expensive and selfish luxury that contributes 8% to our existential issue.

    If only governments/individuals recognized that personal transport is an expensive and selfish luxury that contributes 20% to our existential issue.’
    ——————————
    That, too. We are experimenting with a revisioning of our tourism wants to avoid personal travel by SUV. The aim is local travel using a mix of public transport and walking with a view to experiencing our accessible localities afresh. There is a social/status issue. Our friends regale us with experiences of Tuscan villas, Scandi fiords, Antarctic icebergs, and Kimberly coastlines. Did I mention the barefoot luxury of eco resorts in distant lands? They are simply not interested in the local hills and suburbs.

  38. I imagine there’s a lot of crossover between breakfast TV and Facebook, in that both forms of media are primarily consumed by boomers with no taste whatsoever.

    TikTok, on the other hand, is typically used by people at least a decade younger than myself, and I would suspect the ven diagram of breakfast TV viewers and TikTok users would pretty much be two different circles. I’d be surprised if the majority of TikTok users watched any kind of broadcast television whatsoever. It was a real “I’m getting old” moment for me when I first learned about TikTok – probably the first social media platform where I just couldn’t quite comprehend what it was supposed to be and why anybody would use it.

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