Courtesy of the Age/Herald, the latest monthly federal voting intention numbers from Resolve Strategic have with Labor down a point to 36%, the Coalition up one to 34%, the Greens up one to 12% and One Nation steady on 5%. As ever, no two-party preferred result is provided, but I make it to be 55-45 to Labor based on 2022 election preferences compared with about 55.5-44.5 last time.
As with last week’s Newspoll, the poll gives Anthony Albanese his first net negative personal rating as prime minister, with approval down four to 40% and disapproval up five to 47%. Peter Dutton is up four to 35% and down one to 44%, with Albanese retaining a 43-28 lead as preferred prime minister, in from 46-25.
The worst news for the government comes once again from the Indigenous Voice, with a forced response question now putting no ahead 57-43, out from 54-46 a month ago. A question allowing for an uncommitted response has no leading 49% to 35%. Combining this month’s results with last month’s to get reasonable sub-samples, no leads 56-44 in New South Wales, 51-49 in Victoria, 61-39 in Queensland and Western Australia and 59-41 in South Australia, with yes leading only in Tasmania by 56-44 off a particularly small sample.
The poll was conducted Wednesday to Saturday from a sample of 1604.
Ven – Why are you surprised that Bloomberg has articles on “the Voice”? It has an Australian political reporter and globally they publish more than 5000 articles a day.
> There is a social/status issue. Our friends regale us with experiences of Tuscan villas, Scandi fiords, Antarctic icebergs, and Kimberly coastlines.
If someone has a way of going to the Scandi fiords while emitting no carbon then that would be better then someone touristing locally but emitting lots of CO2 right?
(I am talking about actual CO2 here not offsets that are paying someone not to pollute)
So if Albo is not going to “back down” and push on with the ref (which is clearly in a losing position and will be devastating to the indigenous community) why not double down and say Albo will resign as PM if no wins?
Good way to make clear the stakes to all involved?
This is odd but interesting. Nate Silver talking about his political beliefs……
https://www.natesilver.net/p/not-everyone-who-disagrees-with-you
Lars Von Trier @ #852 Wednesday, September 13th, 2023 – 1:02 pm
You lost me at “So…”.
Lars,
You make me laugh!
Law change to open SA up to renewable and hydrogen ‘gold rush’: Premier Peter Malinauskas said the Hydrogen and Renewable Energy Bill was a nation-first initiative that will put the state on the front foot in a renewable energy “gold rush”.
Developed following a 12-month consultation period with landholders, First Nations people and industry, the Bill aims to minimise red tape and will introduce five new licences relating to the different stages of renewable energy projects.
The legislation will also facilitate the process by which private companies can explore the potential of renewable projects, as well as the construction of the infrastructure and the generation of renewable energy like solar and wind.
Malinauskas said attracting investment into hydrogen projects was a core part of the Bill’s purpose and comes as the state government is in the procurement process for a partner to deliver a $593 million hydrogen power plant near Whyalla. He said the legislation “has the power to have a very profound and positive impact on South Australia for generations to come”. “The Hydrogen and Renewable Energy Bill is genuinely nation-leading legislation – we believe world-leading legislation – that has the objective of unlocking huge sums of investment into our state to grow the renewable sector with the explicit objective of producing hydrogen,” Malinauskas said. “The Act takes five to six pieces of legislation consolidated into a single-purpose legislative vehicle that allows would-be investors to understand exactly what the rules of the game are to be able to access vast tracts of land in South Australia.
https://indaily.com.au/news/2023/09/13/law-change-to-open-sa-up-to-renewable-and-hydrogen-gold-rush/
+1
& ta for the conversation article. V interesting.
Both tie in with my post a while back on how SkyNews corners the MSN homepage feed.
No stone left unturned.
LVT
Keep dreaming that Albo will resign.Did your hero Howard resign when he lost the 1999 referendum?
If you’re going to play crash or crash through might as well do it properly.
After all alp caucus will have to have a vote of confidence of some sort after the ref loss.
You can’t blow 5 points on primary in under 6 months and not expect blowback?
Pretty sure Howard won the 1999 referendum,
Lars Von Trier @ Wednesday, September 13, 2023 at 1:32 pm:
===========
Your hero Putin didn’t offer to resign if he failed to conquer Ukraine in three weeks. Yet, the damage caused by his disastrous decision and pig-headed determination to double down on it ever since is far greater to far more people than a ‘no’ vote in this referendum will ever be.
But then, maybe the difference is in respective your support for them as leaders.
‘Catprog says:
Wednesday, September 13, 2023 at 1:30 pm
> There is a social/status issue. Our friends regale us with experiences of Tuscan villas, Scandi fiords, Antarctic icebergs, and Kimberly coastlines.
(I am talking about actual CO2 here not offsets that are paying someone not to pollute)’
———————————–
‘If someone has a way of going to the Scandi fiords while emitting no carbon then that would be better then someone touristing locally but emitting lots of CO2 right?’
Of course. Unless you live on a fjord this is an unrealistic and irrelevant hypothetical.
1. Tourism contributes 8% of the world’s CO2 emissions.
2. Tourism contributes to homelessness because tourists occupy two dwellings, leaving one empty.
3. Tourism destroys biodiversity.
4. Tourism is an expression of the world’s wealth disparity and the maldistribution of scarce resources.
5. Tourism is, therefore, a neat expression of why and how global warming is an existential issue.
Can you show me that on Bludgertrack?
Look it up for yourself TK. I don’t do spoonfeeding, only tough love for slow learners.
‘Lars Von Trier says:
Wednesday, September 13, 2023 at 1:46 pm
If you’re going to play…’
———————
Oh, look, let us be honest. Dutton is assiduously harvesting the spoils of a social media hate fest unlike anything Australia has seen before.
He has done absolutely nothing to damp this down.
He has done absolutely nothing to tell the racist elements that they ARE racist.
He is doing the same old, same old black gangs spoiling your dinner, walking out of the apology, ‘real’ reconciliation schtick.
Dutton’s enablers, the arseholes of the world play around with this stuff. They do ‘let us be honest’.
Dutton and his cronies will be under pressure again today in question time to find something new to attack Labor with
Majority of their propaganda has failed again (Qatar)and fallen flat Dutton has been callout for misinformation and disinformation on the Voice
I doubt very much there will be anything new coming from Dutton and his cronies, today may be the nastiest day yet from Dutton and his cronies , anything from abuse to stunts against Labor
Lars Von Trier @ #858 Wednesday, September 13th, 2023 – 1:46 pm
The proper way to play that game in this instance would be to have the enabling legislation for the Voice drafted and ready to go, and to publicly commit to passing it through Parliament the day after the referendum and regardless of the outcome.
Not happening. But then neither is your version.
”Did your hero Howard resign when he lost the 1999 referendum?”
Would he have resigned had it won?
Once the Voice vote is over it will be only a few months later that it will be a non issue.
From February the main issue for voters will be inflation, interest rates, housing affordability, rent and unemployment.
That is what the voters will have in mind when they vote in early-mid 2025.
Howard is a dedicated monarchist. He campaigned for No during the Republic referendum. His side won.
Mind you, I would be astonished if a No victory in October resulted in Albanese’s resignation.
Scott, What did Joe Hildebrand call it ? “JoyceVoice”
Dutton’s lies are mounting up.
He lied about Burney.
He lied about Albanese.
He lied about Langton.
By allowing a mountain of sick shit to do the No rounds he is complicit in more lying than you can poke a stick at.
Holden hillbilly:
+1
I’d argue that it’s already what’s on most people’s minds, and that is one of the contributing factors to the increasing antipathy towards the Voice
‘Holdenhillbilly says:
Wednesday, September 13, 2023 at 1:56 pm
Once the Voice vote is over it will be only a few months later that it will be a non issue.
…’
————————-
Uh, no. Having contributed significantly to the No the Greens will spend the next thirty years screaming ‘Treaty Now!’
Prime Minister Dutton will introduce ‘voice’ legislation and introduce a referendum to ‘recognize’ Indigenous people in the preamble.
I don’t believe the parliament will run the full term. At some point in 2024 the Government will need an election to refresh its mandate.
Once the Voice Ref is done it doesn’t have anything left from the slim 2022 platform to implement.
Boerwarsays:
Wednesday, September 13, 2023 at 1:58 pm
Wednesday, September 13, 2023 at 1:58 pm
Dutton’s lies are mounting up.
He lied about Burney.
He lied about Albanese.
He lied about Langton.
By allowing a mountain of sick shit to do the No rounds he is complicit in more lying than you can poke a stick at.
================================================================
Verballing is part of basic training where he comes from.
Lars Von Trier
Dutton and his cronies still defend Qantas keeping jobkeeper
‘Lars Von Trier says:
Wednesday, September 13, 2023 at 2:00 pm
I don’t believe the parliament will run the full term. At some point in 2024 the Government will need an election to refresh its mandate. ‘
——————————
LOL. Unlike the Abbott, Turnbull and Morrison governments who promised one thing fully intending to deliver something else, the Albanese Government is delivering what it promised.
Except where the dynamic duo of Dutton&Bandt block, halt or delay.
Lars Von Trier says:
Wednesday, September 13, 2023 at 2:00 pm
I don’t believe the parliament will run the full term. At some point in 2024 the Government will need an election to refresh its mandate.
——————-
Labor has a reasonable majority 78seats plus cross bench , 2025 will be the year of the federal election
Lars:
That’s… that’s not how it works.
Lars Von Trier @ #853 Wednesday, September 13th, 2023 – 1:25 pm
I dont need to look it up. You do. You made the claim.
Bludgertrack shows the ALP primary isnt anywhere near down 5pts in 6 months. Bludgertrack also shows the ALP primary is up 2pts since the Election.
Albanese has made Dutton look foolish already, the 1st question
Albo is hopeless. A complete dud as PM. Chalmers needs to challenge him and go to an early election with a new manifesto early next year.
Technically speaking, parliaments (or rather, the House) don’t typically run full terms. I believe it’s only happened once. Although I get what LVT is implying. And, honestly, I wouldn’t be surprised if there’s a late 2024 election, rather than an early 2025 one. It’s always possible. Depends on lots of factors, most important of which is if the PM (or his advisors) believe it’s the best timing for the an ideal electoral outcome for the government.
(crikey)
“Abbott’s small government: cabinet meets without single formal submission to debate”
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2015/aug/17/abbotts-small-government-cabinet-meets-without-single-formal-submission-to-debate
Lars has stepped out and switched to AI autopilot or a russianbot.
‘Rex Douglas says:
Wednesday, September 13, 2023 at 2:08 pm
Albo is hopeless. A complete dud as PM. Chalmers needs to challenge him and go to an early election with a new manifesto early next year.’
—————————————-
LOL. Albanese is delivering on Labor’s promises.
Name one item left to implement from Labor’s 2022 election commitments?
I think they could reasonably say:
NACC
HAFF
43%
At a stretch IR
Voice Ref
There is no agenda left from 2022 to implement in this parliamentary term.
Remember when the refrain was – wait for the second term, we’ll settle in and then we’ll do the hard stuff.
Labor will have to have an agenda post the Voice Ref – you set out your agenda and then you have a election so you can implement it.
You wouldnt wait for the second term agenda to get picked apart before a second term / its not getting through the Senate anyway – so you go to a vote.
Labor still has to fix the trillion dollar hole, the productivity shambles, the rampant corruption, the gutted APS, the defence procurement shambles, the climate response shambles, the China mess…etc, etc, etc…
”
Lars Von Triersays:
Wednesday, September 13, 2023 at 1:55 pm
Look it up for yourself TK. I don’t do spoonfeeding, only tough love for slow learners
”
Surely this Lars must be Chris Inglis.
Sometimes I think my posts should be pay per view. I’ll need to work out a revenue sharing model with William though.
The chances of an early election are very very slim.
Because, just commenced federal redistributions will only wrap up in the later part of next year.
Outside of anything totally unforseen (which any particular referendum result is not), it will be the usual May or March 2025, with a very small chance of Novemeber 2024 just after the redistributions are finalised.
”
Lars Von Triersays:
Wednesday, September 13, 2023 at 2:00 pm
I don’t believe the parliament will run the full term. At some point in 2024 the Government will need an election to refresh its mandate.
Once the Voice Ref is done it doesn’t have anything left from the slim 2022 platform to implement.
”
Ah! Come on Chris Inglis!
Wat Tyler- Indeed. Only time that a parliament in Australia has gone its full 3 years and expired due to “effluxion of time” was in 1910. The last election was on 12th of December 1906 and the election was held on 19th of April 1910. So the term was 3 years and 4 months.
”
Rex Douglassays:
Wednesday, September 13, 2023 at 2:08 pm
Albo is hopeless. A complete dud as PM. Chalmers needs to challenge him and go to an early election with a new manifesto early next year.
”
Hi everyone
Did you notice Rex and Lars (Chris Inglis) talk the same points. What a coincidence!
Team Katich
No wonder Qantas lost the High Court case to a unanimous decision. With outsourcing like that…
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2023-09-13/high-court-rules-in-qantas-twu-battle-over-ground-crew-staff/102848684
Curious if any bludger lawyers have a view on whether the Qantas case amounts to a precedent for other casual worker cases?
Stunt 1 by Sussan Ley – What is the speaker’s ruling when she did not state her point of order
“Curious if any bludger lawyers have a view on whether the Qantas case amounts to a precedent for other casual worker cases?”
Any decision is a precedent if future judges ruling on similar cases decide it is. Just like any decision can NOT be a precedent if a future judge decides it’s not. cf just about every decision in the recent US supreme court terms.