Resolve Strategic: Labor 36, Coalition 34, Greens 12 (open thread)

Labor still well ahead on voting intention, but Resolve Strategic records prime ministerial approval in net negative territory and an ongoing decline in support for an Indigenous Voice.

Courtesy of the Age/Herald, the latest monthly federal voting intention numbers from Resolve Strategic have with Labor down a point to 36%, the Coalition up one to 34%, the Greens up one to 12% and One Nation steady on 5%. As ever, no two-party preferred result is provided, but I make it to be 55-45 to Labor based on 2022 election preferences compared with about 55.5-44.5 last time.

As with last week’s Newspoll, the poll gives Anthony Albanese his first net negative personal rating as prime minister, with approval down four to 40% and disapproval up five to 47%. Peter Dutton is up four to 35% and down one to 44%, with Albanese retaining a 43-28 lead as preferred prime minister, in from 46-25.

The worst news for the government comes once again from the Indigenous Voice, with a forced response question now putting no ahead 57-43, out from 54-46 a month ago. A question allowing for an uncommitted response has no leading 49% to 35%. Combining this month’s results with last month’s to get reasonable sub-samples, no leads 56-44 in New South Wales, 51-49 in Victoria, 61-39 in Queensland and Western Australia and 59-41 in South Australia, with yes leading only in Tasmania by 56-44 off a particularly small sample.

The poll was conducted Wednesday to Saturday from a sample of 1604.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,113 comments on “Resolve Strategic: Labor 36, Coalition 34, Greens 12 (open thread)”

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  1. Rex Douglas @ #943 Wednesday, September 13th, 2023 – 4:11 pm

    The brutal attack on Marcia Langton by the racists and idiots is very disturbing.

    In case I’m not the only one catching up with what she actually said –

    “Every time the no cases raises one of their arguments, if you start pulling it apart you get down to base racism. I’m sorry to say it but that’s where it lands, or just sheer stupidity,”

    “Every time the no cases raises one of their arguments, if you start pulling it apart you get down to base racism. I’m sorry to say it but that’s where it lands, or just sheer stupidity,” Langton was quoted as saying.

    Despite her comments specifically relating to the no case and the no campaign, Langton’s comments were initially reported in the Australian under the headline “Langton brands No voters ‘racist, stupid’”.

    In parliament’s question time on Tuesday, shortly after the article’s publication, deputy Liberal leader Sussan Ley referred to the article and claimed Langton had “accused no voters of opposing the referendum because of ‘base racism or sheer stupidity’”.

    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2023/sep/12/marcia-langton-denies-criticising-no-voters-and-says-media-is-targeting-her

  2. Pi – You expect the floor to be dry?

    I am just sick of the complaints that the media is biased – yes it is to some extant but it is a known quantity. It can be planned for and countered, but clearly wasn’t in this case.

    Enough – Have you seen the dry dock fires?

  3. From The Guardian:

    Queensland media to be able to name accused sex offenders from October

    The media will be able to name accused sex offenders in Queensland from early October under new laws passed on Wednesday.

    The new laws were a recommendation of the Women’s Safety and Justice Taskforce and bring Queensland in line with most other states and territories.

    The changes will mean that accused sex offenders’ identities will be treated the same as defendants accused of other serious crimes.

    Guardian Australia understands the laws will take effect from 3 October after a media guide is distributed and the governor-general provides assent.

    Reflecting on the laws, the attorney general, Yvette D’Ath, said “rape myths have no place in our society”.

    “Part of the basis of this protection for accused rapists is that women maliciously make up complaints to damage reputations,” she told parliament on Tuesday.

    The shadow attorney general, Tim Nicholls, said there does not seem to have been any “significant negative consequences” in jurisdictions where the accused can be named at an early stage.

    “Indeed, when we think of other serious offences such as murder and manslaughter where the accused is named almost immediately, along with similar serious offences, the logic of retaining the restriction seems even less tenable.”

  4. B.S. Fairman @ Wednesday, September 13, 2023 at 4:34 pm:

    “Enough – Have you seen the dry dock fires?”
    ============

    Yes. They are not … small. 🙂

  5. ‘Lars Von Trier says:
    Wednesday, September 13, 2023 at 4:42 pm

    3 October – I predict great rejoicing on PB at the commencement of this important legal reform.’
    ——————————-
    Nostradamus was a troll?

  6. Is PB even required to not name any “high profile men from Toowoomba” for example? As far as I know the author of this website is based out of Perth. Are they required to follow Queensland laws? If someone in NSW or Victoria posts that hypothetical man’s name in connection with his case, is there legal exposure?

  7. ‘bob says:
    Wednesday, September 13, 2023 at 4:59 pm

    Is PB even required to not name any “high profile men from Toowoomba” for example?…’
    —————————–
    Absolute no no.

  8. Rex Douglas @ #938 Wednesday, September 13th, 2023 – 4:05 pm

    Adam Bandt
    @AdamBandt
    ·
    3m
    In QT today, I asked Labor’s Environment Minister if she’d stop approving new coal and gas mines.

    She said ‘No’.

    In a climate crisis, Labor backs *more* coal and gas mines.

    Tanya and Labor are clearly denying global boiling.

    The government are clearly being realistic and the adults in the room. The Greens don’t have to govern so they can stunt till the cows come home.

  9. TPOF @ #899 Wednesday, September 13th, 2023 – 2:37 pm

    According to Lars it is far far more horrible to call someone a racist than to actually be a racist and implement a racist agenda. Dutton stuff.

    The Rabid Right love doing misappropriation of terms to suit themselves as well. For example, the Right in America love calling anyone who causes them even a scintilla of disadvantage, ‘racist’.

  10. Too true.

    Sami Shah@samishah · 4h
    Racism, in Australia, is somehow seen as the worst accusation to make against someone, and yet a minor problem to experience.

  11. Fossil fuel companies making record profits, paying minimal tax, destroying our environment and economy.

    It should be criminal, but it’s sanctioned and protected by a corrupted Govt addicted to their political donations.

  12. It’s been a long standing strategy of the far-right, when called out for racism, sexism, nazism and other deplorably behaviour, to not engage with the actual issue but instead to simply reply “See, this is why I quit being left, they call everyone who disagrees with them racist/sexist/nazi”.

    Don’t engage, just go straight to DARVO to waste the time & effort of anyone attempting legitimate discourse with false flag statements & thought terminating cliches that poison the well of discussion.

  13. I don’t engage individually with certain hardcore posters here, other than to say, shooting the messenger is not the most mature way of responding to issues that go beyond political allegiance.

  14. Sohar says:
    Wednesday, September 13, 2023 at 5:33 pm
    I don’t engage individually with certain hardcore posters here, other than to say, shooting the messenger is not the most mature way of responding to issues that go beyond political allegiance.

    _______________________________________________

    It’s funny how some posters who say things in the most twisted ways to fit their agenda then complain that criticism of that is “shooting the messenger”. Very Duttonesque in behaving vilely and then complaining that debate has been debased by people who then call him vile.

  15. TPOF @ #970 Wednesday, September 13th, 2023 – 5:35 pm

    Sohar says:
    Wednesday, September 13, 2023 at 5:33 pm
    I don’t engage individually with certain hardcore posters here, other than to say, shooting the messenger is not the most mature way of responding to issues that go beyond political allegiance.

    _______________________________________________

    It’s funny how some posters who say things in the most twisted ways to fit their agenda then complain that criticism of that is “shooting the messenger”. Very Duttonesque in behaving vilely and then complaining that debate has been debased by people who then call him vile.

    Only the impotent are pure. 😐

    Also, I mustn’t have read the memo that said Sohar was above criticism.

    And you’re right, TPOF, ‘shooting the messenger’ has been misappropriated in order to allow certain groups to lob their grenades and not get called out for it. Cynical, opportunistic stuff.

  16. ‘Sohar says:
    Wednesday, September 13, 2023 at 5:23 pm

    Too true.

    Sami Shah@samishah · 4h
    Racism, in Australia, is somehow seen as the worst accusation to make against someone, and yet a minor problem to experience.’
    ——————————
    NFI come readily to mind. Racism kills. Simple as that.

  17. This is the current situation with tourism’s contribution to the existential problems of global warming and the anthropocene extinction event let alone the large scale social injustice of tourists leaving one dwelling empty while they occupy another dwelling.

    Homelessness disappeared overnight when governments housed the homeless in tourist accommodation during the Covid crisis.

    Air traffic contribution to CO2 emissions collapsed as air traffic collapsed.

    Tourism’s disastrous impact on biodiversity is well-documented in the scientific literature.

    And so on and so forth.

    Globally, one in ten people fly in any given year. In the US that is over four in ten people fly in any given year. I imagine the Australian percentages would be similar: the world’s wealthier people cooking the planet. Pointing to the uber wealthy and their private jets is, in the context, a unicorn exercize.

    1. Tourism contributes 8% of the globes CO2.
    2. Tourism is overwhelmingly carried out by the world’s wealthy elements.
    3. Tourism is a massive global waste of dwelling space. 300,000 hotel rooms in Australia alone, for example.
    4. Tourism is bad for biodiversity.
    5. People use ICE SUVs to engage in tourism. Can’t say worse than that.
    6. Eco resorts are tourism’s greenwashers.

  18. So, a ‘footy act’ includes knocking people unconscious.

    So is a ‘boxing act’ for that matter.

    A ‘legal act’, OTOH, is suing someone for the consequences of not understanding the difference between a footy act and a boxing act.

  19. Guys
    this is story of Julia Chinn, a slave, who became defacto wife of a plantation owner’s son. The Son Johnson eventually becomes ninth VP of USA. There is a video in the article, which is fascinating story of Julia Chinn. I urge you watch the story.
    The story of USA after she dies even more interesting and relevant to us

    https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2023/9/12/2192944/-He-Became-the-Nation-s-Ninth-Vice-President-She-Was-His-Enslaved-Wife

  20. Enough Already @ #948 Wednesday, September 13th, 2023 – 4:33 pm

    “Ukrainian forces kill 590 Russian soldiers over past 24 hours, Russian losses exceed 270,000”

    That number excludes any wounded, then? If so, and there’s that many again in wounded each day, it’s maybe pushing into unsustainable territory for Russia. If only just.

    On the other hand if the 590/day is all casualties that seems like a stalemate at best. Russia can mobilize ~200k conscripts each year for a good long time, if that’s what it takes to cling to the occupied territory. 🙁

    Ukraine needs to go after Russia’s supply lines. And kill the Kerch bridge as part of that.

  21. Talking of us getting or not getting notice in the wider world –

    His comments were quickly picked up by outspoken US Democratic Congresswoman Alexandra Ocasio-Cortez. She retweeted a clip of Mr Gurner speaking on stage in Sydney.

    Ocasio-Cortez pointed out the huge pay packets that many chief executives earn, compared to their employees.

    “Reminder that major CEOs have skyrocketed their own pay so much that the ratio of CEO-to-worker pay is now at some of the highest levels *ever* recorded,” she posted on X (Twitter).

    Major arsehole decries tradies and workers ripping of the employers. That he’s a 40 yr old property developer worth just short of a billion shouldn’t come as too much of a surprise.

    Said the talking arsehole:

    “We need to see unemployment rise; unemployment needs to jump 40 to 50 per rent in my view.

    “We need to see pain in the economy. We need to remind people that they work for the employer, not the other way around.”

    https://thenewdaily.com.au/news/2023/09/13/tim-gurner-we-need-to-see-pain/?

  22. You know, the problem is generalised ignorance of the facts. People blame the Yes campaign for that, but the media has been awful – with a few honorable exceptions: “both-sidesing” it instead of explaining the proposal.

    Hey journos: are you just regurgitating crap from people already known to be lying to muddy the waters? Is that what you dreamed of as a young cadet?

    Not much at stake: only whether we look like a nation of complete arsehats

  23. Pueosays:
    Wednesday, September 13, 2023 at 4:37 pm
    From The Guardian:

    Queensland media to be able to name accused sex offenders from October

    The media will be able to name accused sex offenders in Queensland from early October under new laws passed on Wednesday.

    This stinks in my opinion. Essentially what it means is that a vindictive woman can now destroy a man’s reputation overnight by simply inventing an accusation of sexual misconduct against him and the media will obligingly do the rest. Surely the fairest way is to wait until the matter is tried in court. Then if he is found guilty he deserves everything he gets.

  24. Bystander

    “ This stinks in my opinion. Essentially what it means is that a vindictive woman can now destroy a man’s reputation overnight by simply inventing an accusation of sexual misconduct against him and the media will obligingly do the rest. ”

    Nonsense. Numerous studies have shown that the rate of false rape complaints is exceedingly low, less than 5%. In Australia any complaint that is not deemed to have sufficient evidence to be credible does not get taken to court by prosecutors. Even then, it has to survive a committal hearing where evidence and witnesses can be challenged before going to trial.

    The fact the Toowoomba case has gone as far as it has shows that both a State prosecutor and the judge are satisfied there is enough evidence for a guilty verdict to be possible. This makes no judgement of guilt and the accused enjoys the presumption of innocence. But soon they will cease to enjoy a presumption of anonymity.

  25. LOL.

    Eco resort thinking?

    For a third of Australians, flying is:

    1. Critical to their wellbeing.
    2. Therefore irrelevant to the consequences of global warming.

    https://www.airservicesaustralia.com/flying-critical-to-wellbeing-of-a-third-of-australians/

    1. Tourism contributes 8% of the globes CO2.
    2. Tourism is overwhelmingly carried out by the world’s wealthy elements.
    3. Tourism is a massive global waste of dwelling space. 300,000 hotel rooms in Australia alone, for example.
    4. Tourism is bad for biodiversity.
    5. People use ICE SUVs to engage in tourism. Can’t say worse than that.
    6. Eco resorts are tourism’s greenwashers.

  26. Let the “no” side deny that they are being supplied with dark money from within Australia and from overseas including the Trump/MAGA/Republican backers.

    Let them also deny that the “no” campaigning tactics of fear and loathing are influenced by powerful enemies of democracy in Australia and overseas.

  27. C@tmomma says:
    Wednesday, September 13, 2023 at 5:19 pm
    TPOF @ #899 Wednesday, September 13th, 2023 – 2:37 pm

    According to Lars it is far far more horrible to call someone a racist than to actually be a racist and implement a racist agenda. Dutton stuff.
    The Rabid Right love doing misappropriation of terms to suit themselves as well. For example, the Right in America love calling anyone who causes them even a scintilla of disadvantage, ‘racist’.
    ______________
    I like to think of TPOF as the secular saint of Pollbludger.


  28. Rex Douglassays:
    Wednesday, September 13, 2023 at 4:20 pm
    Privatising QANTAS was a terrible mistake.

    Essential services should never be privatised.

    How/ why is Qantas a Essential service?

    Or is it a first world problem or rich man problem?
    Do you realise Airline fares in so-called third world countries have always been prohibitively expensive for ordinary person in that country?

    Or do you think people with $3 million super balance have cheap airfares?

  29. The overpaid & under talented Qantas board haven’t appreciated the idiocy of their rational on sacking their staff.. on sustainability grounds due to covid, now that Covid has receded & profitability returned they are free to rehire all those sacked & return them to previous wage levels.. No.. Well I guess that proves Covid had nothing to do with it..

    Hopefully Qantas have to pay massive damages, Federal Court isn’t good at this, credit card fees ruling for example

  30. Watching the valedictory speeches for the departing Senator Marise Payne.

    Who knew? She was a Lioness of the Liberal Party. A Leader of Women’s Rights.

    Someone who could cause even the stolid Sarah Henderson to tears. And those times in the Young Liberals, who knew what a life of the party she was?

    As yet, nobody has uttered the classic Aussie farewell – ‘Careful the screen door doesn’t whack you on the arse on the way out!’

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