Courtesy of the Age/Herald, the latest monthly federal voting intention numbers from Resolve Strategic have with Labor down a point to 36%, the Coalition up one to 34%, the Greens up one to 12% and One Nation steady on 5%. As ever, no two-party preferred result is provided, but I make it to be 55-45 to Labor based on 2022 election preferences compared with about 55.5-44.5 last time.
As with last week’s Newspoll, the poll gives Anthony Albanese his first net negative personal rating as prime minister, with approval down four to 40% and disapproval up five to 47%. Peter Dutton is up four to 35% and down one to 44%, with Albanese retaining a 43-28 lead as preferred prime minister, in from 46-25.
The worst news for the government comes once again from the Indigenous Voice, with a forced response question now putting no ahead 57-43, out from 54-46 a month ago. A question allowing for an uncommitted response has no leading 49% to 35%. Combining this month’s results with last month’s to get reasonable sub-samples, no leads 56-44 in New South Wales, 51-49 in Victoria, 61-39 in Queensland and Western Australia and 59-41 in South Australia, with yes leading only in Tasmania by 56-44 off a particularly small sample.
The poll was conducted Wednesday to Saturday from a sample of 1604.
Lars Von Trier says:
Wednesday, September 13, 2023 at 6:44 pm
Has the Fed Govt said anything about the Qantas HC decision? They’d be reluctant to put the slipper into mates when they r down?
_____
Plenty of own goals by the government by being seen as allied to Qantas lately. Chairman’s Lounge included.
Kudos to Tony Sheldon and Max Chandler-Mather for refusing Chairman’s Lounge privileges.
nath, did you catch Tony Burke putting the boot into Qantas in Question Time over their treatment of employees?
Guess not.
Very suss.
“Let’s hope the bulk of the HAFF returns end up as bricks-and-mortar for dwellings in Australian cities and regions, rather than in weekend retreats in the Hamptons, Oxfordshire or the French Riviera.”
https://michaelwest.com.au/from-main-street-to-wall-street-is-the-haff-housing-scheme-a-gift-to-the-money-men/
IS “stolid” mid-point on your excitement scale sprocket?
LVT. Marise was larger than life..
Of course the number of false accusations is low and I am not suggesting otherwise. But what you seem to be saying is that it’s ok for the 5% of men who ARE falsely accused to have their reputations wrecked prior to getting a fair hearing and I totally disagree. The law needs to be administered far more even handedly than that.
sprocket_ says:
Wednesday, September 13, 2023 at 6:49 pm
nath, did you catch Tony Burke putting the boot into Qantas in Question Time over their treatment of employees?
Guess not.
____________
I don’t think that’s going to restore the balance of things. Why would Albo allow his son Chairman’s Lounge membership? Terrible look, even without the Qatar decision. I expected better from him.
Do you have a clothing preference? I’m guessing elastic pant suit for the girls and expandable waists for the boys?
You should publish a top ten Sprocket. I’m guessing there would be a heavy QLD presence?
LVT, I can see you are yearning to see the Top 10 Large Liberals.
Waleed and the female host useless with the sports rorts queen.
Wendy Harmer fires a laser guided weapon:
Can you name one lie the Yes case have put forward about the Voice?
McKenzie wtte: I don’t want to go there. Put a flyer out in her electorate. All bluster and bullshit.
Well done Wendy.
Go on Sprocket – do it!
Lars Von Trier says:
You should publish a top ten Sprocket.
______
I’m pretty sure some of those pages are stuck together.
When Kaldas was anointed by Morrison to head the RC into Defence and Veteran Suicide (vide Letters Patent – 8 July 2021*),
I thought that being a deputy commissioner in the NSW Police Force, and bearing in mind that Morrison seemed to have a cosy relationship with Commissioner Fuller, Kaldas may’ve been too close to the seat of power, his findings possibly infected by such.
I must say, though, that Kaldas has surprised, his address to the NPC today evidencing he’s sincere & determined to get to the root of the problem. He’s definitely not a lackey, willing to take on the military brass & the political establishment.
* https://defenceveteransuicide.royalcommission.gov.au/system/files/2021-07/letters-patent.pdf
Imagine being a young woman with a weight problem contemplating a career in politics, knowing that Sprocket is out there patiently waiting…..
I always think of Shakespeare’s Julius Caesar..
Yond Cassius has a lean and hungry look:
He thinks too much: such men are dangerous
(Caesar, Act 1 Scene 2)
”
sprocket_says:
Wednesday, September 13, 2023 at 6:56 pm
LVT, I can see you are yearning to see the Top 10 Large Liberals.
”
You mean “Larger than life ” Top 10 Liberals?
I guess we may have Large Liberals but not “Larger than life” Liberals.
Quite a few lowlives like Chris Inglis?
Sprocket
“ Watching the valedictory speeches for the departing Senator Marise Payne.
Who knew? She was a Lioness of the Liberal Party. A Leader of Women’s Rights.”
There is a lot Marise Payne should be remembered for. She was defence minister when the BAE design was selected for the Hunter class frigates, despite being ranked third in the evaluation by the navy.
It was a high risk, incomplete design and is now over $10+ billion over budget, at least 2 years late (more than the French subs) and failing to meet requirements. It was bought without a cost effectiveness assessment.
But I’m sure BAE lobbyist Chris Pyne thought it was fine. Thanks Marise.
Arse, being honest, has criticized Dutton for lying, for egging on racism and for refusing to criticize racism.
Well done!
Big things from little things grow.
Oh this just gets better and better:
Senior public servants from the watchdogs regulating Qantas’ consumer relations and aviation safety have accepted complimentary membership to the airline’s exclusive Chairman’s Lounge, despite their role in regulating the national carrier.
Five of the seven commissioners of the Australian Competition and Consumer Commission (ACCC) are members of the invite-only Chairman’s Lounge, where alcohol, restaurant-quality meals, and luxurious facilities are available free of charge.
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2023-09-13/public-servants-regulators-qantas-chairmans-lounge/102845600
2 hours and 11 minutes in and they are still showering Marise with fragrant petals and medals of honour.
The UK economy shrunk by more than expected in July, with all sectors of the economy starting to come under pressure from the Bank of England’s interest rate hikes. Data from the Office for National Statistics (ONS) showed that the economy contracted 0.5 per cent in July.
Economists had predicted a smaller fall of 0.2 per cent.
Output in the all important services sector declined by 0.5 per cent in July, driving the fall in overall GDP. Production output – which includes manufacturing – dropped by 0.7 per cent while the construction sector also saw a fall of 0.5 per cent.
sprocket_says:
Wednesday, September 13, 2023 at 6:51 pm
LVT. Marise was larger than life..
_____________________
Proud of yourself with that one Sprocket ?
Taylormade says:
Wednesday, September 13, 2023 at 7:14 pm
sprocket_says:
Wednesday, September 13, 2023 at 6:51 pm
LVT. Marise was larger than life..
_____________________
Proud of yourself with that one Sprocket ?
LOL Taylormade
Socrates
[ Nonsense. Numerous studies have shown that the rate of false rape complaints is exceedingly low, less than 5%.]
Bystander
“Of course the number of false accusations is low and I am not suggesting otherwise. But what you seem to be saying is that it’s ok for the 5% of men who ARE falsely accused to have their reputations wrecked prior to getting a fair hearing and I totally disagree. The law needs to be administered far more even handedly than that.”
ROTFL! Even handed! Rape and sexual assault are the offenses with among the lowest rate of conviction and imprisonment of all. The same surveys show that most rapes are never even reported. The evidence is the opposite – the scales are currently tilted massively in favour of the defendants in rape trials.
https://www.abc.net.au/triplej/programs/hack/false-rape-allegations-myths/13281852
And in the very rare cases of a malicious false complaint, the complainant can be charged.
Brexit goes to shit?
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2023/sep/01/michael-gove-housing-plans-latest-divergence-promised-green-brexit
The government and the TWU supported the HC judgement.
Interestingly, Michaela ‘Whiteboard’ Cash also supported the decision. She was in a catch 22 – if she rejected the decision it would undermine the LNP’s attacks on Qantas and the government .
a r @ Wednesday, September 13, 2023 at 5:55 pm:
“That number excludes any wounded, then? If so, and there’s that many again in wounded each day, it’s maybe pushing into unsustainable territory for Russia. If only just.”
============
My understanding is that the Armed Forces of Ukraine means this figure to be ‘killed’, but it should also be noted that other estimates (eg, US/UK/Norwegian/ Estonian intelligence) have invariably produced somewhat lower estimates.
I’ve posted many months ago how the AFU derives its figures – essentially it is by the mass collation of individual unit daily reports up the various links in the chain back to GHQ, with each report based upon visual confirmation of either (a) actual bodies dropped, or (b) estimates of crew trapped in destroyed tanks/ACV’s/etc.
So, the reliability of the final figure is entirely dependent upon the reliability of each and every one of a multitude of individual units self-reporting their successes. Nevertheless, it’s not as if the battle gets stopped every night to allow impartial monitors to go along counting bodies, so this method may very well be as good as any other in the context of ongoing activity on a front.
Unfortunately, this is an area where we just have to frankly acknowledge we will not really know the final cost in human lives until after it is all over, and maybe not even then.
Sprocket, your practice of posting photos of people, most especially overweight women, for no deeper purpose than to invite mockery of their appearance is every bit as repulsive as Taylormade says it is.
Nath
“ Five of the seven commissioners of the Australian Competition and Consumer Commission (ACCC) are members of the invite-only Chairman’s Lounge, where alcohol, restaurant-quality meals, and luxurious facilities are available free of charge.”
I agree this really speaks poorly of the work culture of Federal government agencies. When I was a public servant conflicts like that were impermissible. Any gift had to be reported and anything deemed over $50 in value from anyone you may have a work conflict with had to be handed back.
If Labor wanted to regain some popularity they would clamp down on this and reissue PS guidelines on behaviour and conflicts of interest.
The lib/nats federal government gave Qantas Taxpayers money in form of Jobkeeper, qantas sack workers while Receiving the gift from Lib/nats
Lib/nats still protecting Qantas by saying Qantas should not give the taxpayers money back
Another own goal by Lib/nats and another failed propaganda as with Qatar through in the failed attack on Richard Marles when he exposed Dutton wanting to go in private jets to watch Matiladas , not a good week for Lib/nats
Anthony Albanese also gave another own goal by the Lib/nats that Scott Morrison was the last prime minister who had Qantas Alan Joyce at the lodge
‘Enough Already says:
Wednesday, September 13, 2023 at 7:24 pm
a r @ Wednesday, September 13, 2023 at 5:55 pm:
“That number excludes any wounded, then? If so, and there’s that many again in wounded each day, it’s maybe pushing into unsustainable territory for Russia. If only just.”
============
My understanding is that the Armed Forces of Ukraine means this figure to be ‘killed’, but it should also be noted that other estimates (eg, US/UK/Norwegian/ Estonian intelligence) have invariably produced somewhat lower estimates.
I’ve posted many months ago how the AFU derives its figures – essentially it is by the mass collation of individual unit daily reports up the various links in the chain back to GHQ, with each report based upon visual confirmation of either (a) actual bodies dropped, or (b) estimates of crew trapped in destroyed tanks/ACV’s/etc.
So, the reliability of the final figure is entirely dependent upon the reliability of each and every one of a multitude of individual units self-reporting their successes. Nevertheless, it’s not as if the battle gets stopped every night to allow impartial monitors to go along counting bodies, so this method may very well be as good as any other in the context of ongoing activity on a front.
….’
————————————–
Local unit reporting of body counts is notoriously unreliable.
It would be good for Australian governance if politicians and anyone else on the public payroll were to be banned from the Lounge. That includes Adam Bandt.
On industrial relations whether its aviation or any other form , The Lib/nats will not be able to win any contest against Labor
The lib/nats are the enemy of the worker , its like Lib/nats like keep on giving Labor political gifts , by trying to take Labor on , when the lib/nats are so weak on ir
The working public have not and will not forgive lib/nats bring in work choices and want to keep on bringing in workchoices
Scott, Labor’s problems are on the left, not on the right.
Lars Von Trier
Whats has that got to do with Lib/nats on the side of the likes of former Qantas chief Alan Joyce,
Boerwar @ Wednesday, September 13, 2023 at 7:33 pm:
=============
My own view is that you compare two lists for every unit that is deployed to an active front:
1. The personnel at the start of the deployment;
2. The personnel when it is rotated back out.
In principle, the latter figure should include both the unscathed and the injured, but not those killed, captured or deserted. So, the difference between these two numbers should, in principle, be the most accurate figure possible of any deployed units ‘permanent depletion’, if I can put it that way.
The problem is: what military on Earth is ever going to release those lists publicly, or even just tallies based upon them?
So, the question is: if we oughtn’t use unit self-reporting because it is unreliable, and we can’t use precise calculations of personnel permanently depleted from units because it’s never going to be available, what do we use? I’m afraid I don’t have the answer to that question, but I would very much appreciate it if someone reading this does.
Scott – it was Albo being photographed with Joyce last month alongside a Qantas plane – not Dutton.
The QANTAS brand appears to be going out of fashion.
Lars Von Trier says:
Wednesday, September 13, 2023 at 7:50 pm
Scott – it was Albo being photographed with Joyce last month alongside a Qantas plane – not Dutton.
————–
Yes, but like every propaganda lib/nats and media tried against Labor/Albanese
its not helping Dutton or the Lib/nats much
Here is something for someone who recognizes the existential threat facing us all:
https://www.realcommercial.com.au/news/better-than-the-caribbean-huge-cape-york-freehold-property-for-sale?campaignType=external&campaignChannel=paid_social&campaignSource=facebook&campaignName=content&campaignPlacement=facebook_feed&campaignContent=news&fbclid=IwAR3yQI8PMLtLirjIpfem32C5WpZw7DG2zlX-hznGk8d2zX5wVt6JQRtzZ6k
Scott do you distinguish between propaganda media and corrupt media?
Anyway Lars Von Tier
Stuart Robert referred to the NACC , will likely be the bigger problem for the federal liberal party
Boerwar
“ It would be good for Australian governance if politicians and anyone else on the public payroll were to be banned from the Lounge. That includes Adam Bandt.”
Also agreed.
‘Enough Already says:
Wednesday, September 13, 2023 at 7:49 pm
Boerwar @ Wednesday, September 13, 2023 at 7:33 pm:
=============
My own view is that you compare two lists for every unit that is deployed to an active front:
1. The personnel at the start of the deployment;
2. The personnel when it is rotated back out.
In principle, the latter figure should include both the unscathed and the injured, but not those killed, captured or deserted. So, the difference between these two numbers should, in principle, be the most accurate figure possible of any deployed units ‘permanent depletion’, if I can put it that way.
The problem is: what military on Earth is ever going to release those lists publicly, or even just tallies based upon them?
So, the question is: if we oughtn’t use unit self-reporting because it is unreliable, and we can’t use precise calculations of personnel permanently depleted from units because it’s never going to be available, what do we use? I’m afraid I don’t have the answer to that question, but I would very much appreciate it if someone reading this does.’
——————————-
wikipedia does items on various historical battles. They usually have a casualty figure for both sides. If whoever put the entry in is trying to be accurate they will provide a range for the casualty figures.
Fog of war is one problem. A structured problem with local units reporting body counts is that there is an inbuilt human tendency to inflate the numbers. As that number moves up the reporting chain each level of command adds a few for good measure. The result, as for example in the Vietnam War, can be that casualty figures are grossly exaggerated.
The same effect seriously bloated the RAF count of german aircraft shot down during the battle of Britain.
In any case my view is that Russia could probably withstand casualty figures two or three times higher than they have already endured. Looking at its long history, it is one thing that Russia is actually very, very good at.
My serious point is that casualty figures may be a poor barometer for how and when the war might end.
laz forgot to mention that the transport workers union were the union that took qantas to court and won today it includes senater tony shelldon who is a long term qantas criticks
the liberals also blockedd katar air ways now the liberals are backing the air of a dictatership who were repsponsible for many deaths during the building of there world cup stadiums yet labor is to close to qantas because albanese atended one pres conference with joice not as close as frydenberg was
of course naf and laz come out with there usual liberal party spinn it was the liberals who took qantas to court this is just a culture war dutton is anoyedbig business does not back the liberals