Courtesy of the Age/Herald, the latest monthly federal voting intention numbers from Resolve Strategic have with Labor down a point to 36%, the Coalition up one to 34%, the Greens up one to 12% and One Nation steady on 5%. As ever, no two-party preferred result is provided, but I make it to be 55-45 to Labor based on 2022 election preferences compared with about 55.5-44.5 last time.
As with last week’s Newspoll, the poll gives Anthony Albanese his first net negative personal rating as prime minister, with approval down four to 40% and disapproval up five to 47%. Peter Dutton is up four to 35% and down one to 44%, with Albanese retaining a 43-28 lead as preferred prime minister, in from 46-25.
The worst news for the government comes once again from the Indigenous Voice, with a forced response question now putting no ahead 57-43, out from 54-46 a month ago. A question allowing for an uncommitted response has no leading 49% to 35%. Combining this month’s results with last month’s to get reasonable sub-samples, no leads 56-44 in New South Wales, 51-49 in Victoria, 61-39 in Queensland and Western Australia and 59-41 in South Australia, with yes leading only in Tasmania by 56-44 off a particularly small sample.
The poll was conducted Wednesday to Saturday from a sample of 1604.
E-A
One of the issues with using the company roll as the starting point is that these are subject to all sorts of serious statistical issues.
1. It is universal in corrupt armies that there are ghost soldiers. These soldiers don’t exist. However their pay and their equipment are still issued. The money and the goods are then shared by those in on the corruption.
2. It is quite usual for significant numbers of any army unit to be absent at any one time. They might on leave, absent without leave (just fucking up), seriously deserted, incarcerated for bad behaviour, sick, recovering from wounds, being absolutely blind drunk, or temporarily at the next door unit doing something else, like trading stolen goods for grog.
3. Historically it is quite normal for units moving towards the actual fighting to bleed numbers.
The use of Chechens as MPs immediately behind the Russian lines is an indicated that there is serious concern about some or all of the above.
Possibly already posted in some form:
https://www.sbs.com.au/news/article/marcia-langton-to-seek-legal-advice-over-peter-dutton-instagram-post/ol186pot6?cid=testfacebook&fbclid=IwAR0Wpxq5_IAxgGwUFUIZhEPbkwF3kdYSQjLzQvJZOncuxwOhYCXnnlsiHuM
i know our moderater is not a huge labor fan but thesingling out female posters cat and now sprocket is disappointing i would not mind if poasts were called out more consistently
Boerwar @ Wednesday, September 13, 2023 at 8:03 pm:
==============
BW, yes, I agree fully with what you say about that systemic weakness in using unit self-reporting followed by multiple links of on-reporting up a chain of command. ‘Fog of war’ sums it up well.
on marise payne if she was a champion of woman whiy did she join in to bullying of britney higgins and gallacher and not attend the womans march with theclaim that politicans dont attend protests i think tony abott might have a different view plus how many woman has our worst foreign minister helpedget to be lib mmps
It is news to me that Sprocket is female.
Bob Carr
@bobjcarr
All of a sudden, after his Vietnam media conference, it’s possible to see President Biden being told by his party he cannot be its candidate. Can’t see him debating Trump. Or surviving media exposure.
Sprocket is not a female. He told me ages ago that when he was young he looked a bit like Jethro from the Beverly Hillbillies.
To post on a site that’s principally left-leaning is courageous. Accordingly, and without any attempt to curry favour, nor to be critical of sproket, I endorse WB’s post re. Taylormade. I’m off.
Aaron:
Actually, from what little William has shared about his political leanings, I’m pretty sure he is more-or-less in the Labor camp, he just isn’t a blinkered tribal partisan.
And he is absolutely right to call out the people that he has. If they didn’t barrack for the same team as you, you’d probably be right there with him.
Jeez, Boerwar. You are so cooked.
From the AFR on Monday. Note that since the PM’s counter-attack in parliament there hasn’t been a peep from the Coalition about Qantas. Gee, I wonder why?
PM on the offensive
In question time, Mr Albanese dodged questions about whether he or his office directed or advised Ms King on the decision, while questions about his relationship with Qantas boss Alan Joyce sparked a fiery response.
“The last time [Alan Joyce] was [at the Lodge or Kirribilli], Scott Morrison was the prime minister of Australia! The Leader of the Opposition went on 2GB last week and just asserted this to be a fact. It is a lie,” he said.
“They want to just make anything up. They sided with Qantas when it grounded its fleet in 2011, when it locked out its workforce. We stood up for the workforce. They sided with Qantas when its major competitor Virgin collapsed into administration in 2020.
They sided with Qantas when it sacked and outsourced thousands of its workforce. They delivered $2.7 billion in taxpayer support, including almost $900 million in JobKeeper, without putting in place a mechanism to get the money back.”
https://www.afr.com/politics/federal/albanese-dodges-on-qatar-defends-qantas-stance-20230911-p5e3s8
It’s kind of frustrating when some people on here think the only valid example of sexism/misogyny is when a female poster is called out (regardless of the circumstances), yet will turn a blind eye to, if not engage in, absolutely disgusting gendered insults and judgements of appearance of any woman whose politics they don’t approve of.
As a man, it’s not my place to police such things but it does reek a little of hypocrisy and disingenuousness (disingenuity?)
Wat:
Absolutely. And, is course, it’s inevitably only criticisms of female posters on the Labor side which get this reaction.
Imagine the reaction if say, Taylormade, were in the habit of posting pictures of various larger woman from the Labor ranks for the purposes of mocking them. Imagine if he commented on a picture of some random woman in a news article about cost-of-living pressures saying that she “looked well fed.”
Looks like a major success for Ukraine last night. Stormshadow/Scalp missiles successfully hit the Sevastopol shipyard with a Russian landing ship and Kilo submarine in them. The landing ship is reportedly destroyed and the dry dock and Kilo submarine reportedly damaged.
https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/europe/russia-ukraine-war-putin-latest-news-b2410522.html
This is a big deal. Russia has been using the subs to fire cruise missiles at Ukrainian cities. It can’t easily be repaired till the dry dock is working.
The StormShadow/Scalp missile is a UK/French joint design. It is like a Tomahwak but stealthy.
Same old crap we saw with the Republic and Same Sex Marriage:
https://www.crikey.com.au/2023/09/12/voice-to-parliament-fear-doubt-no-campaign-fearmongering/
Asha
Yep.
I don’t want to dig up old incidents but one of the most disgusting moments on this board was when people were sitting around making jokes about how ugly an anti-vax/quarantine protester was, making completely disgusting remarks about how gross certain sexual acts with her would be. Thankfully William shut it down but a few people involved would later accuse him of sexism for much less, not to mention will absolutely treat you like The Quartering for saying anything critical of a female Labor MP.
Griff @ #986 Wednesday, September 13th, 2023 – 6:19 pm
Or did God get there first as Divine Retribution for Scotty from Marketing taking a holiday there while Australia burned? The God of the Old Testament certainly rolled that way.
(apologies to the Hawaiians)
“his address to the NPC today evidencing he’s sincere & determined to get to the root of the problem.”
We know the root of the problem already. When you send young men & women, often teenagers, into the brutality of war, some of them won’t come back, some will come back and never be the same, and some will come back and not be able to handle what they’ve seen. It’s especially bad when you’re there as a colonial oppressor and within units that commit war crimes.
The global tourism industry contributes 8% of the world’s CO2, contributes substantially to homelessness, to biodiversity loss and is an expression of the disproportionate consummation of the world’s wealthier people.
It is therefore a major driver for 2.5 degrees plus and to the Anthropocene Extinction Event.
Eco resorts attempt to greenwash all this but the flight miles, the food miles and the material miles can’t lie.
My friend replied to Jacinta Price’s text message, even though she couldn’t:
‘I’m replying to your short code. Bugger off. I’m voting Yes. Simples. Like the Meerkats.’
‘Socrates says:
Wednesday, September 13, 2023 at 8:57 pm
Looks like a major success for Ukraine last night. Stormshadow/Scalp missiles successfully hit the Sevastopol shipyard with a Russian landing ship and Kilo submarine in them. The landing ship is reportedly destroyed and the dry dock and Kilo submarine reportedly damaged.
https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/europe/russia-ukraine-war-putin-latest-news-b2410522.html
This is a big deal. Russia has been using the subs to fire cruise missiles at Ukrainian cities. It can’t easily be repaired till the dry dock is working.
The StormShadow/Scalp missile is a UK/French joint design. It is like a Tomahwak but stealthy.’
————————————
Yep. From what I can gather Russia has around six or so of both classes in the Black Sea. So the loss of individual units is statistically significant. The disruption to repair and maintenance is likely to be significant. What will probably also be statistically significant is that the successful strikes may make it impractical to keep using the port at all. It may be that the ships are henceforth based on the far side of the Black Sea. This would not be a problem for the Kilo class but the disruption or total loss of the transport functions of the class of the other vessels could be a major outcome.
Enough Already,
Also, when the ATACMS finally arrive that will enable significant destruction of fortified Russian lines. Maybe even help with retaking Crimea.
‘bob says:
Wednesday, September 13, 2023 at 9:09 pm
“his address to the NPC today evidencing he’s sincere & determined to get to the root of the problem.”
We know the root of the problem already. When you send young men & women, often teenagers, into the brutality of war, some of them won’t come back, some will come back and never be the same, and some will come back and not be able to handle what they’ve seen. It’s especially bad when you’re there as a colonial oppressor and within units that commit war crimes.’
—————————————
Actually, it is a bit more complex than that and we should learn from the complexity. For example, when soldiers fight with a clear and achieveable war objective the wars tend to be much less damaging psychologically. It had been obvious at least the last half of the Afghanistan War that there was no clear war objective and that the war was lost. In that circumstance the question of the ADF is to what extent the brass sought to get the Civil to get out of the war. What briefings were given indicating the hopelessness of the war. By way of corollary, what did the Civil do with that sort of advice? Both the Coalition and Labour have questions to answer here. They both subscribed to the utterly facile and useless Howard’s description of the War Aim: ‘To run the course’. Utterly meaningless when Howard never spelled out the course. In the end we did the only thing we could, run back home.
The MSM failed, largely because it was the tame lapdog of the Coalition but also because the ADF has become terribly adept at media management. Journalists were not let loose. They were embedded. As such they were routinely captured. Which journalist ever came back and stated flat out that the war was irretrievably lost and that we were sending people to death for nothing?
.
Boerwar
Yes and only four of those subs are the later upgraded Kilos that can actually fire the Kalibres. So its a major hit.
This is one of only two Russian docks on the Black Sea that can repair it. But the dock will have to be repaired sufficiently to repair the sub so they can float it out.
Mavis: “a site that’s principally left-leaning is courageous.”
? I reckon PB is about 50/50 of labor to anti-labor. At least in comment count. I agree that there are probably more total progressive leaning people. But the anti-labor people are 100% relentlessly anti-labor, where genuine progressives have some things that they do and don’t support. That skews all commentary to have a relentlessly anti-labor flavour. There are almost no discussions here where there is a positive-labor slant without relentless attacks.
QANTAS has just been taking the piss out of Aussies for years and its about time they were ditched as the national carrier and have any special agreements taken away.
It is clear from a number of credible sources that the furore over alleged comments by Marcia Langton, about which one of our “Liberals” posted this morning, were a beat-up based upon deliberate misrepresentation, for example: https://www.crikey.com.au/2023/09/13/voice-to-parliament-polarisation-marcia-langton/?su=UEJ5dU1IVWZVbWdidyt2NDV2RGQwUT09
Of course many of the arguments being put by the “No” campaign are racist and stupid. As for the people pushing these arguments: some are; some aren’t but are mistaken or confused; and others are not but are Machiavellians, happy to exploit racism and stupidity to serve their ends.
We haven’t had a “National carrier” for nearly 30 years.
Well well. It looks like Fairfax has sniffed the wind and started to hedge its bets on The Voice.
Tonight’s headline is inflammatory.
Yes campaigners told to accuse No camp of vilifying Aboriginal people
It would be very amusing if the first NACC inquiry was into Qantas and its Chairpersons Lounge and other secret squirrel upgrades for senior politicians/public servants.
It would catch out both sides and a few on the sides no doubt.
Thats one bipartisan way to kick off NACC.
Good riddance as well to Qantas. Its funny how its the right wing press coming for them though when usually they are all right in the trough. Oh well.
Socrates and Boerwar, this is an interesting sidebar to Ukraine’s missile strike on the dry dock in Sevastopol harbour:
“… this is the first use of cruise missiles to destroy a submarine in history…”
https://www.pravda.com.ua/eng/news/2023/09/13/7419634/
BW, you made a good point about this strike effectively taking Sevastopol off the board now for Russia and banishing them to the Black Sea’s eastern shore.
Boerwar still cooking, I see.
Still, at least it means he is not posting about his other pet obsessions.
Thanks are not necessary.
C@tmomma @ #1071 Wednesday, September 13th, 2023 – 9:21 pm
Kerch bridge. I call
airATACMS strike!“A large-scale malfunction of Starlink occurred during the attack on the bay in Sevastopol on the night of 12-13 September.
Source: Analysts of the NetBlocks platform, DOU reports
The network connection graph for September shows that the current outage was the worst of the month.
The quality of the signal dropped to almost zero values.”
https://www.pravda.com.ua/eng/news/2023/09/13/7419616/
Is this Musk playing funny buggers again with Ukraine’s existential resistance to Russia’s continuous cruel attacks?
Anyway, I’m still waiting for those mushroom clouds which Musk is certain must follow a Ukrainian attack like this upon Russian military assets in Crimea.
At the very least, if the Voice referendum ends up with a ‘No’ result, there won’t need to be an official ceremony that needs to be done like here when in the aftermath of the Brexit vote they had to formally remove the UK flag from the EU centre.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jyq7mrOUE9k
Watching it in full is just so depressing.
South Australian Premier Peter Malinauskas says it is a “disappointing state of play” that Qantas has not operated international flights out of Adelaide for 10 years, and to uphold its status as a national carrier it should reinstate them.
Mr Malinauskas said competitor Qatar Airways had been a big backer of South Australia during the pandemic, repatriating passengers and transporting freight when other airlines “went missing”.
https://www.afr.com/companies/transport/qantas-should-start-acting-like-a-national-carrier-sa-premier-20230913-p5e4a7
C@tmomma, ATACMS can’t come soon enough for Ukraine. TBH, they should have been there six months ago. Along with F16’s. This war might have been nearly over by now…
Even if that is all true it is irrelevant to the point I was making. That it is not ok for the media to ruin a man’s reputation prior to him having the chance to defend himself in court. It is the antithesis of natural justice.
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2023-09-13/climate-scientists-issue-warning-over-antarctic-sea-ice-levels/102849334
Silly old scientists – where do they get such nonsense from? We have in on Boerwar’s authority that fossil fuels are not the problem – it is tourism that is the problem 🙂
Michael Cohen/”Truth and Consequences” on Substack:
Those Old Impeachment Blues
Republicans are opening an impeachment inquiry against President Biden even though they have no evidence he has done anything wrong.
Think about all the allegations of abuse of power, obstruction, and corruption against Donald Trump that Republicans consistently swept under the rug and refused to investigate. Think about the excuses that GOP leaders constantly made for Trump’s behavior — from his pressuring Ukraine to dig up dirt on Biden and his ostentatious violations of the Emoluments clause to his efforts to obstruct the Mueller investigation and, of course, trying to overturn the 2020 election. House GOP members waved every Trump scandal away. Now, without a shred of evidence, they are opening an impeachment inquiry into Biden.
Any news of Poroti?
John Della Volpe
@dellavolpe
New substack focuses on recent
@CBSNewsPoll
& youth crosstabs.
Excellent approval ratings for
@VP
among youth:
55%: 18-29
45%: 30-44
35%: 45-64
33%: 65+
Also, 55% believe Harris serving “as first woman & person of color” VP is a “good thing.”
—————–+++——-
A lot of people in recent times were commenting on this blog were saying how disastrous was Kamala Harris. I am not an admirer or something but the commentary here was mainly arsehattery to say the least.
https://dellavolpe.substack.com/p/the-resilient-spirit-of-young-america
Cognitive dissonance of Americans in full glare
America is f***ed
Wall Street Journal:
Voters Feel Better About the Economy, but Few Credit Biden, Polls Find
Most Americans disapprove of president’s economic policy, posing a challenge to his re-election
Two-thirds of voters who usually side with Democrats say the economy is in excellent or good condition, up 9 percentage points from December, the latest Journal poll found. Among independents, the share who view the economy favorably also rose 9 points to 36%. Eight percent of Republicans say the same, unchanged from December.
At the same time, roughly three in five voters polled by the Journal disapprove of Biden’s handling of the economy, and 63% of voters don’t like how the president has handled inflation.
Donella Cooper, 49 years old, an independent voter who lives in Lincoln, Neb., and works in IT, said she has seen slight improvements in the economy, but she doesn’t think it is because of Biden, whom she supported in 2020. She is undecided on whether she will back Biden again and wants to see him do more to help the economy before making the decision.
William Bowe/ Adrian Beaumont
5 Things To Know About Biden’s Bad Polling
https://www.huffpost.com/entry/6-things-about-biden-polling_n_64fb7ffbe4b0e2b6718eb9c7
“A different indicator looks a lot better for Democrats.
Lastly, polling is not the only thing we can use to predict election results. (Remember, though, polls are a snapshot in time. Attempting to predict year’s results off of today’s polls is foolish.) Special election results are traditionally a good indicator of the overall political environment, and comparing them to the previous regularly scheduled election can indicate which ways the political winds are blowing.
And the winds appear to be at Democratic backs: A FiveThirtyEight analysis found Democratic candidates overperforming the historical partisanship of districts where special elections are held by 10 percentage points from the start of this year to the beginning of August. Does this mean we can expect a 10-point win for Biden next year? Probably not, since this type of analysis comes with as many caveats as polling does. Notably, Democrats’ college-educated base is more likely to show up for irregularly scheduled elections, giving them a built-in advantage for special contests.
“
Back in the real world, rising residential rents are a major contributor to inflation in the USA
Along with the Oil Cartel pressuring fuel prices
Elsewhere inflation continues to moderate
Sound familiar?
We will see what the USA (and global) Markets think of this latest inflation reading
Initially the Futures fell but then adjusting to positive
And from The Australian:-
“Firm Liberal hand will sort out big business
Wresting back policy settings to somewhere more centrist in areas ranging from IR to energy will take years – and a change of government.”
JANET ALBRECHTSEN
Is this the “real world” ?
Goll
Typical Liberal right wing tripe as usual from Albrectsen
Im expecting the right wing media to call for Albos resignation if the Voice goes down. This is what those in the Murdochracy are leading up to IMHO.They are actively campaigning for the NO vote, as if Dutton were PM they would be advocating for a YES vote. Nothing to do with First Nations people whatsoever. Its beat/get Albo at all costs.