Essential Research’s fortnightly poll should be along in the small hours of Tuesday – anything else that comes along on the poll front this week (not counting the regular weekly Roy Morgan) will be news to me when it happens. Here’s what I have for the time being:
• Roy Morgan’s weekly result has Labor’s two-party lead in from 53-47 to 52.5-47.5, from primary votes of Labor 32% (down one-and-a-half), Coalition 37% (down half) and Greens 13.5% (up half). Since discovering Morgan’s results archive, I’ve been including its results in the BludgerTrack poll data page, but not in the poll aggregate itself.
• The West Australian had an Indigenous Voice poll from Painted Dog Research on Wednesday showing no leading in the state 61-39, after yes led 58-42 in June. The poll was conducted at some point earlier this month from a sample of 1285.
• The Australian reports Queensland Senator Gerard Rennick has sought legal advice after a Liberal National Party committee knocked back his challenge to his 131-128 preselection defeat in July at the hands of party treasurer Stuart Fraser. While it was acknowledged that Rennick backer Peter Dutton should have been allowed to cast a proxy vote, as Fraser supporters David Littleproud and Adrian Schrinner had been, and that two people allowed to vote were ineligible, it was determined that the anomalies would not have affected the result, and that Rennick missed his opportunity to raise objections at the meeting. Of the ineligible voters, The Australian reports that “one apparently voted for Rennick and the other says they didn’t vote in the deciding round”.
• The full results from a RedBridge Group poll showing state Labor trailing 55-45 in Queensland, which was covered here last week, can be viewed here.
• Occasional Poll Bludger contributor Adrian Beaumont has a piece on the October 14 election in New Zealand for The Conversation, where all indications are that Labour is facing defeat after two terms in government.
Not good numbers. Have Aussies gone mad. The trend is South for the Southern Land. Sucks. Oh well. Maybe Newspoll will lead us out of the doledrums by undergoping a conversion. Maybe not. The Gods have gone crazy.
“Rennick backer Peter Dutton”
All you need to know about that LOTO.
Good luck to those doing the walk for Yes today. I’m sure it’ll be a great day, even though it’s going to be warm and the walk is a pretty long one.
The Orange Tsunami rolls on.
The real, not re-located, Sydney team has won another away game on the 2023 Footy Tour of Australia.
Looking forward to travelling back to Melbourne, later this week, to cheer on the Mighty Giants as they surge towards the 2023 Grand Final.
A GWS versus Brisbane GF looks like a great result for the Australian Football League.
It is a really good song
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=27XRugei364
Uncharacteristic deep reflection — and regret — from former UK Tory MP Rory Stewart:
“… the three assumptions of 90s liberal democracy were now discredited. The open markets which had once seemed a guarantee of global prosperity were now increasingly blamed for many lives of precarious misery. … The prosperity and power of authoritarian China led much of the world to question the centrality of liberal democracy and human rights. The dream of a liberal global order based on solidarity and international cooperation was replaced with isolationism.”
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2023/sep/16/rory-stewart-tory-mp-decade-incompetent
Chris Minns is correct here:
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/don-t-be-distracted-by-controversy-bombs-pearson-urges-yes-campaign-20230915-p5e4wo.html
World News round up:
British media report rape and emotional abuse allegations against Russell Brand: https://www.npr.org/2023/09/16/1199987459/russell-brand-allegations-rape-emotional-abuse
Turkey could part ways with EU if necessary, Erdogan says: https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/turkeys-erdogan-says-country-could-part-ways-with-eu-if-necessary-2023-09-16/
French ski resort closes permanently because there’s not enough snow: https://edition.cnn.com/travel/france-ski-resort-closes-la-sambuy-climate-scn/index.html
We can’t rely on Russia to protect us anymore, Armenian PM says: https://www.politico.eu/article/we-cant-rely-russia-protect-us-anymore-nikol-pashinyan-armenia-pm/
Visas-for-bribes scandal rocks Poland’s anti-immigrant government before election: https://www.politico.eu/article/poland-visas-for-cash-scandal-anti-immigrant-government-slammed/
Poland to ban entry of Russia-registered passenger cars from Sunday: https://www.reuters.com/article/ukraine-crisis-poland-russia/poland-to-ban-entry-of-russia-registered-passenger-cars-from-sunday-pap-idUSL8N3AS07Q
The show must go on’: 35,000 ultra-Orthodox Jews travel to Ukraine for Rosh Hashanah: https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/sep/15/ultra-orthodox-jews-celebrate-rosh-hashanah-uman-ukraine-pilgrimage
Russian-backed mercenary squad Wagner Group designated as terrorist organization by UK officials: https://abcnews.go.com/amp/International/wagner-group-designated-terrorist-organization-uk-officials/story?id=103226543
Republican Texas AG Ken Paxton is acquitted of corruption charges at historic impeachment trial: https://apnews.com/article/ken-paxton-impeachment-texas-871fb9c57b38fbda5bec5c2e5f280755
California sues oil giants alleging ‘climate risks deception’: https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2023/9/16/california-sues-oil-giants-alleging-climate-risks-deception-report
Mali, Niger and Burkina Faso sign Sahel security pact: https://www.reuters.com/world/africa/mali-niger-burkina-faso-sign-sahel-security-pact-2023-09-16/
The European Union said Saturday that its top official Ursula von der Leyen will head for the Italian island of Lampedusa, after Rome called on Brussels for help after a surge in migrant arrivals. : https://www.news.com.au/breaking-news/eu-scrambles-to-address-italy-island-migrant-surge/news-story/4cc0318f098cf89ae63b88250c67afcb
Thanks OS for Sundays long read. Stewart does often do reflection – and does it fairly well.
Has anyone noticed the big difference between rank and file YES and NO supporters?
Ch 7 news last night showed a YES march with a bunch of enthusiastic supporters. It also showed only the backs of people in a room listening to Jane Hume promote NO.
Are NO supporters too ashamed to be publicly identified as such? Has anyone seen a NO supporter handing out leaflets and talking to people passing by?
I forgot that BK wasn’t doing a Sunday Dawn Patrol any more. So thank you to Holden Hillbilly for his global focus stories today. 🙂
Andrew Clark in the AFR suggesting an early election after the May 2024 budget – “while job figures hold up”
renicks chalinger Stuart fraser is also a conservative works for cathlick chirfch how ever assume dutton is backing Rennick due to trriying to capture the one nation uap vote and fearshe will defect to one of those parties if he is not saved how everdespite Craig kelley being saved buy two pms to please tony abbott it did not stop him defecting the moment morrison would have allowed a branch vote which would have thrown him out
This is an insightful contribution from Mark Kenny who says, “Dutton might just be the first genuine candidate for prime minister whose central plan is to vacate the middle entirely, surrender the inner cities and tailor a whole new bifurcated electorate in which anger and geography are used to challenge elites and break socially conservative Labor voters away outside the capitals. ”
https://www.canberratimes.com.au/story/8352037/could-peter-dutton-vacate-the-middle-entirely/?cs=14258
Good on you HH. With sources!
As for Rennick, I can’t help but repost this. I mean, the values, the standards, the depth of thought –
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gerard_Rennick
(read the rest at your own risk)
citizen,
Warren Mundine certainly knows how to discredit ‘Yes’ supporters, that’s for sure. He’s already gotten out in front of the pack about the ‘Yes’ marches today:
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/don-t-be-distracted-by-controversy-bombs-pearson-urges-yes-campaign-20230915-p5e4wo.html
Yes, but Warren, it’s not being listened to. Mostly by Coalition governments when they are in power.
so it seems David littleproud the nationals leader is more progresive then Dutton was also behind the 2018preselection defeat by nats senater barry osulivan one of the most sexist senaters who helped with banking roil comition in faver of the low profile sussan mcdonnalds and now littleproud aposis rennick who is a anti vackser
Labor’s PV is a worry. The cost of living, especially petrol, seems to be taking its toll. Thank goodness for the Greens & the Teals without which Dutton’s march to the Lodge could be realised.
In scanning the headlines of 9 Entertainment on line and the bylines there is asked three questions in regard the upcoming Referendum
What powers would it have?
What issues would it advise on?
Who would be its Members?
Leaving aside my opinion that the second question answers the first allow me to continue
By putting the same 3 questions to the opposing (mostly) Liberal Party
What powers would they have?
They would only have power as the elected government in a general election Otherwise none
What issues would they advise on? Allow me to substitute electioneer instead of advise. They electioneer on matters they support – and otherwise oppose as is the case with the proposition currently before the Australian public to vote on (yes, vote on)
Who would be its Members? People with views akin to the views promoted by the Liberal Party and who therefore join the Liberal Party (and what is their party membership number including across what age demographic? So where is their relevance?)
The same questions could be put to 9 Entertainment, under the Chair of Costello so the question firstly about the Board, then Senior management the Board appoints then the staff that Senior management employs
Some are just too precious in putting THEIR positions
True that Mavis.
I used to scoff at Scott’s primary vote theories but now I think its quite possible that you could get primaries like:
Labor 30%
Greens 15%
Liberal 36%
Others 19%
And end up with something like:
Labor 70-72 seats
greens 4- 6 seats
Liberal 60-62 seats
Others/ Teals 10-16 seats
BK @ #14 Sunday, September 17th, 2023 – 7:58 am
We are I think still a centrally based political organism, and straying too far either way is, so far be praised, not where we want to be. The tall poppy syndrome, the genetic disrespect for authoritarianism, and our system of a compulsory preferential voting system are our saving graces. Fingers crossed.
How do you sustain a two party preferential system where between them they only have 2/3 of the electorate voting for them as a first preference?
A minority government which relies on the Greens and the Teals may force a change in the voting system for future elections. If you look at the Greens given their share of vote they are underrepresented in the HoR for instance.
Potential El Niño inching closer, but the Bureau of Meteorology is not ready to declare it yet
https://amp-abc-net-au.cdn.ampproject.org/v/s/amp.abc.net.au/article/102861886?amp_gsa=1&_js_v=a9&usqp=mq331AQGsAEggAID#amp_tf=From%20%251%24s&aoh=16949012847429&csi=0&referrer=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.google.com&share=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.abc.net.au%2Fnews%2F2023-09-17%2Funusual-el-nino-development-bureau-of-meteorology-iod%2F102861886
“Climate scientists say they have “never seen anything” like this year’s emerging El Niño, as the major climatic event inches closer to development.
The event, which takes place over the Pacific Ocean, is the world’s most consequential climate driver, triggering changes in weather patterns across 60 per cent of the globe.
It has been linked to heavy rain and flooding in places like Peru and the southern United States, and hotter, drier weather in other countries, including Australia.
An El Niño is characterised by a complex interaction between the atmosphere and the ocean over the Pacific Ocean.
But despite ocean temperatures strongly favouring its development, the atmospheric change has not kicked into gear yet, according to the Bureau of Meteorology.
“We’ve never seen anything quite like this,” senior climatologist Simon Grainger said.
What makes this year’s event unique, according to Dr Grainger, is not so much its slow atmospheric response, but the backdrop of incredibly warm ocean temperatures it comes on top of.
An El Niño event features unusually warm ocean temperatures in the central and eastern Pacific, and a weakening of the trade winds.
Importantly, these two changes reinforce each other, which locks the event in until about Autumn the following year.
This year, sea surface temperatures have well and truly exceeded El Niño values of 0.8 degrees Celsius above normal and have done for months — now 1.6C warmer than normal.
And yet, until now, the atmosphere has not responded in a sustained way.
“It’s definitely given us a lot of food for thought,” Dr Grainger said.
Mavis @ #18 Sunday, September 17th, 2023 – 8:01 am
And a strong cross-bench, not being beholden to any single industry, also gives us better policy outcomes.
‘Why a No vote for the Voice is not a Yes vote for the Libs.’
[‘The right has a favourite saying: all politics is downstream from culture. What that means is that the people who shape the culture will end up shaping politics.
That is why the Australian right is so excited that voters are, according to the polls, rejecting the Indigenous Voice to parliament proposal put to the people under a Labor government. They see in this moment an indication that Australians are finally fed up with having their culture shredded and trashed by progressives’ reckless momentum. They believe that Australians (helped by right-aligned campaign groups which have finally reached maturity and efficacy) have realised how destructive progressivism is. And they believe that this insight will animate Australians to oppose other forms of cultural vandalism.
For both leaders, this campaign is about defining their legacies as well as shaping the nation’s future.
They believe this because the No vote seems to be coalescing around a rejection of corporate and institutional sanctimony. Woolworths, Woodside, Coles, Rio Tinto, Lendlease and Wesfarmers are all advocating for Yes. Representatives of big business from the Business Council of Australia to the Australian Institute of Company Directors have declared their support too. And the more big businesses throw their support behind the Voice, the lower the polls go.
The right is delighted. For years, it has complained that big business speaks over individual employees when it distributes progressive opinions like confetti. From “DE&I” (diversity, equality, and inclusion) to “ESG” (environmental, social and governance) corporates and institutions have introduced acronyms to tell employees what social causes they are to get behind and how. Now all of a sudden, since Qantas CEO Alan Joyce stood next to Prime Minister Anthony Albanese to deliver planes in Yes livery, the “crony” has become visible in “acronym”.
….
The great right hope is that voters are rejecting the hegemony of the cultural elite, not just on the Voice but on all issues, which will cause the political pendulum to swing rightward. But they are mistaken.
…
The right will soon discover that it hasn’t prepared for the reality that is now materialising. Since Donald Trump became US president, it has fixated on the maxim that politics is downstream from culture and forgotten that culture is downstream from the economy. Years of focusing on the culture wars has left the right’s economic policy proposals underdeveloped and poorly sold.’]
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/why-a-no-vote-for-the-voice-is-not-a-yes-vote-for-the-libs-20230913-p5e4dd.html
Great Work HH: Global Cartoons:
UK Cartoons:
Andy Davey: #KeirStarmer says we are facing an “axis of instability” and names people smuggling, terrorism, climate change & weakening democracy as the 4 major threats. People smuggling goes to No1. Stop the boats!!
Matt on #ChineseSpying #TripleLock
Chris Riddell: Armed with his trusty table knife, the prime minister takes on the Chinese Communist party
US Cartoons:
Pat Byrnes:
Gary Vavel:
Adam Zyglis:
Jack Ohman:
Clay Jones:
Mike Luckovich:
Michael Ramirez:
Canada:
Ireland:
NZ:
Netherlands:
Here are the winning cartoons from the European Cartoon Award:
https://www.europeanpressprize.com/the-european-cartoon-award-announces-its-2023-winners/
Honourable mentions:
Tjeerd Royaards:
Víctor Solís:
Ruuners up:
Harry Burton:
Patrick Chappatte:
Finally the winner from Ben Jennings:
”
Oliver Suttonsays:
Sunday, September 17, 2023 at 6:29 am
Uncharacteristic deep reflection — and regret — from former UK Tory MP Rory Stewart:
“… the three assumptions of 90s liberal democracy were now discredited. The open markets which had once seemed a guarantee of global prosperity were now increasingly blamed for many lives of precarious misery. … The prosperity and power of authoritarian China led much of the world to question the centrality of liberal democracy and human rights. The dream of a liberal global order based on solidarity and international cooperation was replaced with isolationism.”
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2023/sep/16/rory-stewart-tory-mp-decade-incompetent
”
OS
I agree with discreditation of first assumption.
But I don’t agree regarding discreditation of second assumption. China was never a democracy. Its prosperity and power was enabled by West based open markets and greed of its owner class.
IMO, Liberal democracy and human rights are always important but the thing is West especially AUKUS countries did not keep up with those tenets of democracy. Why? Because for Liberal democracy and human rights to survive and flourish the people and politicians, who implement them should be truthful with themselves and public.
The third assumption broke down because one side try to exploit the other side instead cooperation.
Holden Hillbilly thanks for the Sunday roundup, especially going further afield to get articles from Al Jazeera and Reuters.
I can’t help thinking about the Lauren Boerbert story and the antics of some of the candidates Pauline Hanson has here.
Lars Von Trier:
Sunday, September 17, 2023 at 8:05 am
At least on those primaries there’s little chance of a Dutton like creep becoming PM.
______________________________________
Player One:
Sunday, September 17, 2023 at 8:27 am
Mavis @ #18 Sunday, September 17th, 2023 – 8:01 am
Labor’s PV is a worry. The cost of living, especially petrol, seems to be taking its toll. Thank goodness for the Greens & the Teals without which Dutton’s march to the Lodge could be realised.
[‘And a strong cross-bench, not being beholden to any single industry, also gives us better policy outcomes.’]
I’d agree with that provided RW nut jobs don’t get elected, there being a surfeit of them already in the Tory & Country parties.
Mavis @ #29 Sunday, September 17th, 2023 – 8:53 am
Then you should think of a strong cross-bench like an insurance policy. In good times it is just a small overhead you are willing to pay. In bad times you will thank god you invested in it.
”
ItzaDreamsays:
Sunday, September 17, 2023 at 8:00 am
Good on you HH. With sources!
As for Rennick, I can’t help but repost this. I mean, the values, the standards, the depth of thought –
In September 2018 Rennick advocated closer ties with Russia because “they’re part of the West; they drink, they’re Christians, they play soccer, they’re Caucasian”.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gerard_Rennick
(read the rest at your own risk)
”
On the other Jeremy Brown whinged why police identified white skinned offenders as Caucasian.
Well Jeremy, Liberal party especially its hard right identify them like that.
I think you did not get the memo yet or just whinging and whining because that is how you are programmed.
”
citizensays:
Sunday, September 17, 2023 at 7:55 am
Has anyone noticed the big difference between rank and file YES and NO supporters?
Ch 7 news last night showed a YES march with a bunch of enthusiastic supporters. It also showed only the backs of people in a room listening to Jane Hume promote NO.
Are NO supporters too ashamed to be publicly identified as such? Has anyone seen a NO supporter handing out leaflets and talking to people passing by?
”
Telling isn’t. ‘No’ supporters know in their hearts that something is wrong with their stance.
#weatheronPB
Glorious sunshine,
revels in the peaceful air,
and quiet spaces.
I read Kos Samaras comments regarding the Qld polling. He is certainly an angry pollster, I think his comments are a bit over the top. I’m also not too sure about his understanding of Qld politics.
“Newly discovered correspondence suggests that the second world war-era Pope Pius XII had detailed information from a trusted German Jesuit that up to 6,000 Jews and Poles were being gassed each day in German-occupied Poland. The documentation undercuts the Vatican’s argument that it couldn’t verify diplomatic reports of Nazi atrocities to denounce them.
The documentation from the Vatican archives, published this weekend in Italian daily Corriere della Sera, is likely to further fuel the debate about Pius’s legacy and his now-stalled beatification campaign.
Historians have long been divided about Pius’s record, with supporters insisting he used quiet diplomacy to save Jewish lives while critics say he remained silent as the Holocaust raged.”
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/sep/16/letter-suggests-pope-pius-xii-knew-of-mass-gassings-of-jews-and-poles-in-1942
Warren Mundine is absolutely floundering and make a mess of all ‘No’ arguments.
Ven @ #35 Sunday, September 17th, 2023 – 9:19 am
So, David Speers is asking him the tough questions and not taking talking points for answers?
Princeplanet @ #33 Sunday, September 17th, 2023 – 9:09 am
Bitter after having been dumped as Labor’s Victorian pollster? As a supposedly ‘Labor-leaning’ pollster, he always seems too ready to put a negative to Labor spin on things.
I can’t help thinking about the Lauren Boerbert story and the antics of some of the candidates Pauline Hanson has here.
They are the avatars of the wilfully obtuse and blissfully ignorant. With a veneer of ‘Christianity’.
Ven @ #31 Sunday, September 17th, 2023 – 9:06 am
Also telling that there was only one brown-skinned person in that photograph of the ‘No’ event in Melbourne last night. The person who has sold their soul to the Coalition.
C@t you do know that Kos Samaras is married to Ros Spence? Presumably he can be credible in his polling without being anti- Labor or parroting the party line?
”
C@tmommasays:
Sunday, September 17, 2023 at 9:22 am
Ven @ #35 Sunday, September 17th, 2023 – 9:19 am
Warren Mundine is absolutely floundering and make a mess of all ‘No’ arguments.
So, David Speers is asking him the tough questions and not taking talking points for answers?
”
Speers just repeated previous statements of Mundine and whether he agree with Price view on colonisation. Mundine went round and round with his talking points and landed with indirectly supporting Yes arguments.
For example, at the end of talking point he would say we have to move forward.
His arguments are closer to Thorpe arguments regarding treaty and sovereignty of FN people.
C@tmomma says:
Also telling that there was only one brown-skinned person in that photograph of the ‘No’ event in Melbourne last night. The person who has sold their soul to the Coalition.
_______
Don’t be stupid. A ‘brown skinned person’ has every right to vote NO and hasn’t ‘sold their soul’.
Lars Von Trier @ #40 Sunday, September 17th, 2023 – 9:31 am
And Chris Uhlmann was married to Gai Brodtmann. Nevertheless, Princeplanet was right to point out that he is commenting from Melbourne about Queensland politics.
And no, I don’t expect him to parrot the party line, I was simply commenting on a detectable diminishment of Labor in his spin. That’s my opinion, and I don’t think I have to follow the Kos Samaras-favouring line.
nath @ #42 Sunday, September 17th, 2023 – 9:34 am
So you agree with her statement about colonisation and the benefits for Indigenous Australians of them having water and food supplied to them now, compared to the old days? I only point that out by way of saying that that’s what selling your soul looks like to me.
Lars: “If you look at the Greens given their share of vote they are underrepresented in the HoR for instance.”
Indeed. Except in Queensland — of all places! — where the Greens hold 10% of HoR seats.
Mavis @ #18 Sunday, September 17th, 2023 – 8:01 am
“Labor’s PV is a worry. The cost of living, especially petrol, seems to be taking its toll. Thank goodness for the Greens & the Teals without which Dutton’s march to the Lodge could be realised.”
I have also been concerned by the drop in Labor’s PV but put it down to a combination of things of which cost of living is one. I think the issues have been housing, cost of living, climate change and approving new coal and gas projects, AUKUS and some instances of nepotism or abuse of power in NSW.
Of that list housing has hopefully been dealt with by this week’s decision though it will take a decade to really fix the problem. Cost of living has been resolved in brutal fashion by Lowe and Labor’s budget relief is now flowing, though mostly to demographics that will always vote Labor anyway.
I mention AUKUS because I think Labor is suffering from Marles’ inability/unwillingness to communicate any reasons for it other than those spruiked by Morrison. I would argue those reasons are discredited. Labor is now making cuts to accommodate AUKUS, yet cannot articulate why. It’s damaging.
Against this yes of course the LNP is a rotting corpse of a party with a leader to match. Dutton will not form government. But Labor won’t get to a majority whilst carrying so much baggage.
This is deliberately all the bad news. Other things like foreign policy and IR reform are going much better. The Voice was the right decision but had the wrong people implementing it IMO.
C@tmomma says:
So you agree with her statement about colonisation and the benefits for Indigenous Australians of them having water and food supplied to them now, compared to the old days? I only point that out by way of saying that that’s what selling your soul looks like to me.
______________
There are plenty of opinions I don’t agree with. You are taking it too far.
Your beloved Labor party helped scrap ATSIC, which you should have a think about before you start talking about people selling souls.
Socrates: “I can’t help thinking about the Lauren Boerbert story and the antics of some of the candidates Pauline Hanson has here.”
As I posted in the previous thread:
I’ll bet her companion at the Beetlejuice performance — in whose crotch she placed her hand — is relieved she’s Lauren Boebert, not Lorena Bobbitt.
nath @ #48 Sunday, September 17th, 2023 – 9:40 am
‘helped scrap’. Hmm, gallant spin which completely avoids mentioning why it was scrapped and who was actually in government at the time and decided to scrap it.