Essential Research’s fortnightly poll should be along in the small hours of Tuesday – anything else that comes along on the poll front this week (not counting the regular weekly Roy Morgan) will be news to me when it happens. Here’s what I have for the time being:
• Roy Morgan’s weekly result has Labor’s two-party lead in from 53-47 to 52.5-47.5, from primary votes of Labor 32% (down one-and-a-half), Coalition 37% (down half) and Greens 13.5% (up half). Since discovering Morgan’s results archive, I’ve been including its results in the BludgerTrack poll data page, but not in the poll aggregate itself.
• The West Australian had an Indigenous Voice poll from Painted Dog Research on Wednesday showing no leading in the state 61-39, after yes led 58-42 in June. The poll was conducted at some point earlier this month from a sample of 1285.
• The Australian reports Queensland Senator Gerard Rennick has sought legal advice after a Liberal National Party committee knocked back his challenge to his 131-128 preselection defeat in July at the hands of party treasurer Stuart Fraser. While it was acknowledged that Rennick backer Peter Dutton should have been allowed to cast a proxy vote, as Fraser supporters David Littleproud and Adrian Schrinner had been, and that two people allowed to vote were ineligible, it was determined that the anomalies would not have affected the result, and that Rennick missed his opportunity to raise objections at the meeting. Of the ineligible voters, The Australian reports that “one apparently voted for Rennick and the other says they didn’t vote in the deciding round”.
• The full results from a RedBridge Group poll showing state Labor trailing 55-45 in Queensland, which was covered here last week, can be viewed here.
• Occasional Poll Bludger contributor Adrian Beaumont has a piece on the October 14 election in New Zealand for The Conversation, where all indications are that Labour is facing defeat after two terms in government.
Tony Abbott has been complaining about Brookvale Oval for a while. Time to demolish it and put up a nuclear reactor. I’m sure the NIMBY’s won’t mind.
Bushfires and evacuations on Tassie east coast!! In September!
Good on you, Grant.
Hey, is the “Yes” campaign holding back on the Shaq attack? Didn’t they get him to do some messages whilst he was out here? Or are they worried that people might confuse them for SportsBets ads?
Do these rooftop, personalised, modular DIY small reactors actually exist, otherwise it is like saying, we will stick with trusty coal for now then switch to the perpetual motion generator fueled by unicorn farts – whenever that happens.
There are between 250,000 and 300,000 Australian dwellings that are rapidly approaching being uninsurable because of flood, fire and storm (including cyclone) risks.
Increasingly, insurance companies are either offering no cover or prohibitive cover.
They are also intent on spreading the pain to people whose dwellings will not flood, will not burn or will not get flattened by cyclones.
I would have thought that Bandt might have turned his mind to this element of the housing crisis.
But, no. No youf votes in that space?
Well done Grant. It is always best to get your side of the story on record and in writing.
Obviously email your summary as well and keep a copy of the email and your summary.
Steve777, what about Sydney Harbour? Perfect place for a reactor. Close to the users after all. Less transmission infrastructure required. But you know narrabeen, and in past the spit at manly, are pretty good options. Should allow guaranteed access to water.
They might be able to afford the cost of the energy too.
bob @ #902 Tuesday, September 19th, 2023 – 4:41 pm
I remember my first trip to Brooky. I was a tiny little lad and the flags and stands and noise seemed huge. It might have been 1978. It was pretty feral. I became a fan that day which only ended in 1999 and I lost interest in whatever the game became.
Bob
“ Tony Abbott has been complaining about Brookvale Oval for a while. Time to demolish it and put up a nuclear reactor. I’m sure the NIMBY’s won’t mind.”
I was thinking my preferred places for SMRs in Australia in the first instance would be:
Cronulla Oval toilet block in Morrison’s electorate
Albany Creek bowls club in Dutton’s electorate
Tamworth RSL car park in Barnaby’s electorate
Boerwar @ #900 Tuesday, September 19th, 2023 – 4:37 pm
Put a LAVO up there instead.
https://www.solarquotes.com.au/blog/lavo-hydrogen-battery-review/
Last night’s Media Watch on the ABC – dedicated to the Voice campaigns, Yes and No.
https://www.abc.net.au/mediawatch/episodes/voice/102870788?utm_campaign=abc_mediawatch&utm_content=link&utm_medium=content_shared&utm_source=abc_mediawatch
Lies, fear, confusion and doubt are winning the day. Some of the No stuff is pretty offensive (warning at start).
Sorry Albany Creek is too close to Bribie. NIMBY.
Steve777 @ #872 Tuesday, September 19th, 2023 – 4:11 pm
This is crazy. We cannot possibly evacuate the entire south coast of NSW. Not now, and probably not ever.
Issuing advice that will simply not be followed – because it cannot be followed – is a very, very bad idea.
The “catastrophic” fire danger rating should have been kept as a last resort. Otherwise, what do the RFS do to actually warn people that there is a genuinely imminent or approaching threat?
I raised this very issue with the RFS after the last bad fire season, when the warnings were so meaningless they were often disregarded. They promised they would fix the system, but it seems they may have made it even more useless 🙁
I enjoyed watching Bogged on Bribie Island on Facebook the other day davidwh
🙂
‘Player One says:
Tuesday, September 19, 2023 at 5:35 pm
Steve777 @ #872 Tuesday, September 19th, 2023 – 4:11 pm
The Catastrophic rating covers the coast and hinterland from Ulladulla South to the Victorian border. The area was hard hit in late 2019 / early 2020.
This is crazy. We cannot possibly evacuate the entire south coast of NSW. Not now, and probably not ever.
Issuing advice that will simply not be followed – because it cannot be followed – is a very, very bad idea.
The “catastrophic” fire danger rating should have been kept as a last resort. Otherwise, what do the RFS do to actually warn people that there is a genuinely imminent or approaching threat?
I raised this very issue with the RFS after the last bad fire season, when the warnings were so meaningless they were often disregarded. They promised they would fix the system, but it seems they may have made it even more useless ‘
—————————
Whole districts across Australia will have to be evacuated as 2.5+ does its ugly work.
The consequences of 2.5+ will be inconvenient and impossible and all the rest of it, of course.
My understanding is that the fire warning ratings are now consistent across all states and territories.
Catastrophic essentially means that the authorities are signalling that any fire is highly likely to be totally beyond their control.
People can, and will, ignore this rating. At their peril.
I’ve been looking over the Redbridge poll for Victoria and was glad that they included votes according to the regions. I’ve made a comparison from the poll results compared to how they were at the 2022 election, at least according to the Upper House vote.
I assume most of the difference between Labor-Coalition-Greens and Other is because often people tend to vote for others in the Upper House compared to the Lower House.
A few things are clear though, there does seem to be a major shift to the Coalition in the North-East Metropolitan region, which includes Warrandyte, which was probably a major reason why Labor chose not to contest the by-election. And there seems to be a big shift back to Labor in the Northern Metropolitan region.
Never sharing legal problems on social media, particularly when you are on the defensive, is good advice
Just a correction re South Coast fire danger rating, it covers the coast South from the environs of Batemans Bay, not Ulladulla. I had confused the RFS fire district with the BOM forecast district. Apologies.
”
Victoriasays:
Tuesday, September 19, 2023 at 4:48 pm
How unsurprising..
BREAKING NEWS: Elon Musk Now Says He May Paywall All of Twitter
”
Victoria
You mean X, formerly known as Twitter), right? 🙂
Because no one gets into the world’s essential-for-democracy, de-facto public square without paying the cover charge first.
He’ll be challenging Trump for the title of “stable genius” by the end of the year at this rate.
Shellbell @ 1750 I assume you are referring to me.
Point taken.
Point noted.
Thank you.
Pretty hard to interpret those numbers for me Kirsdarke. The last election had the cooker cohort that included a number of independents, and the small progressive parties (legalise/sustainable/animal). Hard to even find a mid point. That would be a crazy word map tbh. There seem so many ways that those votes shift.
But the cookers have migrated to the anti-voice crowd. Which kinda means back to the LNP. I’m taking heart that I think that cohort is in decline because collectively there are less of them. But this does allow a successful anti-voice campaign, because it temporarily boosts the LNP. Burned a lot of bridges here though the libs have. They’ve basically bet the farm that the world is going to get more racist and that they’ll capitalise on it. What they call ‘leadership’.
But I’m an optimist. I think they’re sniffing their own farts and telling everyone that they’re roses. The reason they’ll fail is cuz they are reliant upon dumb. Like seriously. That isn’t ever a winning formula.
Grant
Anyone.
This is all public.
@Pi
That’s fair. These are theoretical lower house poll responses when compared to Upper House voting results, so I mainly did it out of curiosity rather than trying to prove something.
Still though, the double-digit vote intention changes drew my attention in those two regions.
Pretty fascinating stuff alright.
“The way things are going the 2pp will have the Coalition in front well before Christmas.
One term Albanese is now likely, with a Dutton government to be the most right-wing in history.”
@MelbourneMammoths
Even Phil Coorey wrote the other day the Liberals are no chance at the next election. Coorey does exactly have Labor sympathies.
“Dutton is arguing that if the referendum fails, there should be another one that would focus just on constitutional recognition of Indigenous people. The Voice would be legislated separately. (Even though the Coalition argues right now that a Voice would be racially divisive. Go figure.)
Even on Dutton’s own side, there is little appetite for a second referendum but no one should be too concerned. Given the Coalition has next to no chance of winning government at the next election, due to the size of its seat deficit, it is a commitment upon which Dutton will never have to deliver.”
https://www.afr.com/politics/federal/focus-begins-to-shift-to-the-consequences-of-a-no-vote-20230913-p5e47t
Boerwar @ #917 Tuesday, September 19th, 2023 – 5:49 pm
Catahstrophic means leave the danger area. Which in this case is the entire South Coast of NSW. But, as far as I can see, there are no actual fires in this area. At least none that are not under control.
It is foolish in the extreme to issue warnings that will not be complied with.
Pi and Shellbell
I was just reaching out for help.
WB please take my post down at 1709 top of this page.
Thank you
Pi and Shellbell
I was just reaching out for help.
WB please take my post down at 1709 top of this page.
Thank you
my comment deleted.
One of my uni lecturers once offered us the following advice about communicating online:
Never write anything you wouldn’t be comfortable either seeing in the newspaper or hearing read out in a courtroom.
@Aqualung: “I cannot understand why the referendum wasn’t held last year.”
That one is easy – bringing voters back to the polls too early or too often is expected to piss them off.
But in hindsight they should have tried to go either before the Vic state election or much sooner after the NSW state election than they have done.
But in hindsight you’d change a lot more than the campaign timing.
@MexicanBeemer – this is a first term government, we have compulsory voting and most actually aged governments in Australia federally have been Coalition who the young flock to turf anyway. Also you still didn’t provide a cite. I’m afraid that more rigour is needed for an actual polling based argument.
@Lars – a Lib supporter aping the Greens’ housing arguments is hilarious. Your mob spent 9 years making the problem worse and demonising solutions. Come on now. Do you really think renters are turning to Peter Dutton as the saviour? PS: he ain’t calling for a rent freeze either. Only people who never have to solve the problems that would cause (not to mention the problems of doing it at all) call for that.
Arky , assume makes and ass out of u and me.
If you don’t understand I’m not sure I can help u.
@Kirsdarke: “A few things are clear though, there does seem to be a major shift to the Coalition in the North-East Metropolitan region, which includes Warrandyte, which was probably a major reason why Labor chose not to contest the by-election. And there seems to be a big shift back to Labor in the Northern Metropolitan region. ”
Normal service being resumed I’d call it.
Pesutto as leader is winning back Lib heartland / Teal voters who couldn’t stomach the religious extremists, at least now that all the infighting with the religious extremists is not top of mind for voters.
On the flip side, the post COVID protest vote in Labor heartland is evaporating and Vic Labor is working hard on resecuring those areas.
An election today would probably look much like the 2018 Danslide instead of the 2022 Danslide, basically, minus a point and a seat or two.
Shellbell @ 6:13 pm
“Grant
Anyone.
This is all public.”
While I agree with you and framed my post with that in mind, the reality is you actually need to know exactly where you stand before responding to these sort of situations.
No-one will care a week after the referendum except the far-left Thorpe faction and the far-right culture warriors. Albo will “look to improve existing policy” and not do something silly like try to legislate a voice anyway and everyone will move on. I wouldn’t be surprised if he never mentions the word aboriginal again for the remainder of the term (leaving it to a minister) after getting that as a direct mandate through the referendum.
Dutton might try a scare campaign with “legislated voice” but the electorate will have thoroughly moved on by the next election.
The real losers will as always be the indigenous majority who participated in this process only to have the voice quashed by the LNP. If/When the LNP ever get back in power the “Aboriginal’s need to pull themselves up by their bootstraps like I did” Mundine/Price pairing (assuming Mundine isn’t discarded like rubbish the day after the Referendum vote) will be trotted out to justify another wave of intervention while their land gets sold off to miners and agricultural concerns.
Aqualung “I got bogged on Bribie” has some very funny posts. There was little sympathy for that bloke that had his rig burned and then the fire truck that got bogged trying to get to the fire.
That Redbridge poll, The Greens surging in Western Victoria region, seems more than unlikely.
Arky
@MexicanBeemer – this is a first term government, we have compulsory voting and most actually aged governments in Australia federally have been Coalition who the young flock to turf anyway. Also you still didn’t provide a cite. I’m afraid that more rigour is needed for an actual polling based argument.
———————
Bit hard to cite self unless you think i’m Morrison 😉
Grant Ex_Libris,
Good to hear your report. 🙂
Can’t say much more than that as our Internet has been on the fritz all day and all I have is a mobile hotspot until tomorrow morning.
William Bowe please remove my post at 1709.
Thank you.
Today the Liberal member for Cottesloe in the WA Parliament completely rejected the phrase ‘sovereignty was never ceded’ and everything it implies. It was Aboriginal land, he says (to paraphrase), but now it’s everybody’s. Without engaging whatsoever with how that came to pass. Outraged, in particular, that a claim of land rights might include Crown land. How very dare they.
It is, to his credit, at least more honest than those who mouth the phrase as a platitude without engaging with everything it implies.
This all in debate on WA Labor’s Aboriginal Heritage Legislation Repeal and Amendment Bill.
Which the aforesaid member thoroughly endorses.
Hey GExL, don’t stress though man. You seem to have a lot of stuff going on. This stuff doesn’t really hit the radar. I mean oops, but don’t catastrophise.
P1
‘ For your survival, leave bush fire risk areas.
These are the most dangerous conditions for a fire.
Your life may depend on the decisions you make, even before there is a fire.
Stay safe by going to a safer location early in the morning or the night before.
Homes cannot withstand fires in these conditions.
You may not be able to leave and help may not be available.’
—————————————–
It makes sense to me. It means that if you live in a place that is not safe under catastrophic conditions you are going to have to get used to evacuating in order to be assured of surviving fire.
It is just one of the adaptive behaviours we are going to have to adopt on the road through 2.5+.
And can I just add that if there is one thing that should mean that the Coalition don’t get back in to government for a good 3 election cycles, at least, then it should be for the fact of the way they absolutely sabotaged the internet in this country to benefit the lamrstream media moguls, in order to retain their grace and favour. That’s why I never believe a word that comes out of any Coalition politician’s mouth. There’s always an ulterior motive to whatever they tell the electorate.
As the great Al Franken said, ‘Lies and the Lying Liars who tell them ‘.
The first whiff of grapeshot via the heat and our Internet curls up its toes and I don’t know whether it’s the copper still in the ground or something else, but the whole thing is essentially garbage.
Arky at 6.35 pm
You may recall it was reported that Senator Pat Dodson had argued for 27 May 2023 as the referendum date. Similar advice was given publicly by David Solomon, a very experienced journo from Qld. He wrote a good book over 30 years ago on the political impact of the High Court, details available at:
https://catalogue.nla.gov.au/catalog/1413705
“The longer the wait between the unveiling of the Government’s proposals and the date people vote, the more quibbles, questioning and outright opposition there will be.
There is no reason to delay a vote. The earlier it is held, the better its prospects of success.”
https://johnmenadue.com/time-to-listen-to-the-voice-and-act-is-now/ (Solomon on 4 Aug 2022)
Solomon was nearly 30 when the 1967 referendum was held. It is a shame that his advice was ignored.
Generally, the judges will come out the last 35 years of Australian history regarding decisions about Indigenous peoples as performing somewhat better than the pollies, although that is a low bar and, apart from Mabo No. 1 being close (4-3), the decision in Yorta Yorta v Victoria (2-5) was appalling.
What has any Australian government achieved in Indigenous affairs since Whitlam? Minimal progress.
There is a big difference between Labor and the LNP, but where are the legislative successes? You have to go back to the Hawke/Keating governments to find some. Those were less significant in historical terms than the substantial failures (e.g. giving up on national land rights under Hawke + “Treaty”).
All I’m saying is that the sooner Musk burns Xitter to the ground, the faster he’ll be back focusing on building spacerockets.
It was either go short or go long Dr Doolittle, go intermediate obv was the worst of both. Still under any successful option you needed someone to be the face of it – there wasn’t a Mundine/Price YES eqv.
No worries, P1.
Just keep ignoring it because it is wrong.