Essential Research 2PP+: Labor 49, Coalition 45 (open thread)

Unsurprising results on federal voting intention and the Indigenous Voice from Essential Research, while RedBridge finds the Coalition making no headway in Victoria.

The latest fortnightly Essential Research poll finds both major parties unchanged on the primary vote, Labor at 31% and the Coalition at 32%, with the Greens down two to 13%, One Nation up one to 8% and 6% undecided. The pollster’s 2PP+ measure has Labor down two to 49% and the Coalition up two to 45% – the narrowest result this term – with undecided likewise at 6%. A result on the Indigenous Voice maintains the remorseless trend, with no up three to 51% (hard no up one to 42%, soft no up one to 8%) and and yes down one to 41% (hard yes down two to 28%, soft yes steady at 12%).

Regarding the government’s latest package of workplace laws, the poll finds 79% are in favour of criminalising wage theft, with only 6% opposed; 66% support “closing loopholes so that employers can’t use labour hire workers to undercut full time workers”, with 12% opposed; and 54% support “ensure that gig workers who work through digital platforms have minimum rights and entitlements”, with 15% opposed. Forty-nine per cent favoured “businesses maximising profits for shareholders” as the cause of rising living costs over 32% for the alternative cause of wage and salary increases for workers, and 42% felt workplace power tilted too much in favour of employers compared with 12% for workers. The poll was conducted Wednesday to Sunday from a sample of 1135.

Also doing the rounds is a Victorian state poll from RedBridge Group that shows primary vote shares much as they were at the November election, with Labor on 37%, the Coalition on 34% and the Greens on 13% (36.7%, 34.5% and 11.5% respectively at the election). However, Labor is credited with a wider two-party preferred lead of 56.5-43.5, compared with 55.0-45.0 at the election. The poll was conducted August 31 to September 14 from a substantial sample of 3001, allowing for credible breakdowns by gender, age, region, education, income and home ownership in the pollster’s report.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,605 comments on “Essential Research 2PP+: Labor 49, Coalition 45 (open thread)”

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  1. when will labor get rid of duttons close friend mike pezzzulo yes he was a labor staffer to beazley but he clearly is incompetent maybi hetargited payne and pine because they would not let him use our sby survice to sby on evry day australians even the incompetent goerge brandis said he is dangerous

  2. Asha at 6:30pm If you start with the knowledge that T**** is a grifter, that he tells you what you want to hear, and doesn’t ever believe it himself, the questions become, who was he messaging, and why? Both are easy. He’s desperate to stay out of jail. His only strategy is to win the Presidency next year. To do that he has to get renominated.

  3. What’s Pezullo been feeding Dutton since the election? Poor choice not to have a good clean out last year. There must have been signs he was pro-Conservative and likely to leak.

  4. No doubt Lachlan Murdoch will be wanting snap up Pezzullo for opinion pieces, given this example…

    At times Pezzullo appeared to be barracking for the Coalition. When Briggs said the numbers were “tracking well” for the Liberal candidate in a 2017 byelection, Pezzullo responded: “That will give the PM momentum going into Christmas … might even start to translate into general polls.”

    On a “super Saturday” of five byelections in July 2018, Briggs relayed that Turnbull was “feeling very positive … Confident we can pick up 2 [seats]“.

    “That will change the game,” Pezzullo replied, before offering some political advice. “Not my business but you will need to be careful about rushing to capitalise at the polls. Punters hate that,” he said.

    “Agree,” said Briggs.

  5. well remember when pezzulo forgot toe tell clair oniel the manus island detention contract had endid for two months and dutton began to ask questions befor pezzullo had to admit it was his own fault he shouldhave been sacked after friendley jordies bribery aligations labor also must sack craig macklacklan who was duttons chief of staff from 2015 to 2011 appoitnted a deputy secretary for foreign affairs and in 2015 morrison and abott national security advisor andrew shearer as pm top national security advisor

  6. Sausage.

    My call?

    Labor to maintain their comfortable lead in the polls and continue in the direction of increasing their majority at the next election.

    Very worrying for your lot now though the Pezz has been caught out manipulating the previous LNP Government.

    Few sweaty brows in your Lib land.

    Some things always come back to bite you!

    Enjoy!

  7. to be fair scott its the costellow media out to get pezzulo sacked nick mckenzi is leading investigations in to him andthere columnist brandis is a long term pezzulo critick due to pezzulos friend dutton

  8. OC:

    I figured he wasn’t actually trying to suggest that Albo was at risk of being expelled from and/or splitting the party if the Voice went down, because surely even Dennis Shanahan would have more sense than that. But I guess suggesting that a “No” vote might see Albo facing political oblivion via either the Labor caucus by, er, comparing him to a guy that went on to have several terms of then-unprecedented political success after being on the losing side of two referendums doesn’t make a whole lot more sense.

    It’s a deeply flawed comparison however you look at it.

  9. I just got out of the shower. Needed it after watching that grubby little performance.
    Asha, my late mum would have turned 102 this year so I’m guessing most of his fan base would either be dead or circling the drain. But there would be plenty in my bracket that would know him but probably would never willingly listen to his, er, stuff.

  10. Ashasays:
    Sunday, September 24, 2023 at 8:07 pm
    OC:

    I figured he wasn’t actually trying to suggest that Albo was at risk of being expelled from and/or splitting the party if the Voice went down, because surely even Dennis Shanahan would have more sense than that. But I guess suggesting that a “No” vote might see Albo facing political oblivion via either the Labor caucus by, er, comparing him to a guy that went on to have several terms of then-unprecedented political success after being on the losing side of two referendums doesn’t make a whole lot more sense.

    It’s a deeply flawed comparison however you look at it.

    ==================================================================

    Why are you even talking about this?

    It’s Shanahan crap!

  11. is this the same scott brigs who was bidding for home affairs to sell our veza processing system do pezzzullo has to go first thing tomorow this is the most compremised publick servint in history under mining democratic governments i thought at the time the drums of war address would have been aproved by dutton it was all most his talking point maybi labor did not want to sack him due to his links with news corp fearing damaging leaks he tried to allow our foriegn sby agentsy to sby on evry day australians as revealed buy smethurst the only reason it never happind was that marise payne nedid to aprove it but she blocked it

  12. The SmearStralian sheltered workshop is flipping the switch to hysterical overload, to avoid the savage cuts coming from Murdoch the Younger.

    Ain’t gunna work

  13. Aqualung:

    I’m vaguely aware of Khamal, in that when I hear the name I know he’s an aging entertainer of Asian descent who occasionally appeared on that stupid old show with Daryl Whatsisname and the ostrich, and that he does (did?) the usual talk / variety show rounds that keep most half-forgotten D-list Aussie celebs fed, but that’s genuinely the extent of it. And most of that knowledge comes from dim memories of half-watched TV back in the 90s.

  14. Steve777says:
    Sunday, September 24, 2023 at 8:15 pm
    Don’t trust anyone who’s name ends in “o”? Apart from Albo, of course.

    ==================================================

    See what you mean Steve!

    Apart from people whose name ends in ‘o’ we thrive in the O’s.

    Jacko, Robbo, Billo, Russo, Jenno, Katho, Kevvo, Larsoo, Asho, Catto….should I stop?

    Yeah, sorry if I’ve left you out, youse are all good basically!

  15. That Pezzullo has been problematic (both too attached to the former government and an ‘erratic’ manager of his department) has been known for some time. There were some hopeful articles suggesting he was being managed out after the contract stuff-up earlier this year. Hopefully.

  16. stupid old show with Daryl Whatsisname and the ostrich
    __________
    You are talking about Australian television live entertainment royalty my friend.

  17. Kamahl is someone who has been around forever, since I was a kid anyway (early 1960s), sort of in the background. Old people liked him – my parents’ and grandparents’ generation, especially women. Not bad when White Australia was still going.

    The younger generations disdained him, poking fun at him or ignoring him. But he apparently sold lots of records, got lots of gigs, popped up on TV a lot. He was often lampooned. If it upset him, he no doubt cried all the way to the bank.

    And although he’s faded into the background, he’s apparently still going at 88. He must have won more fans among the younger generations.

    Google can find lots of mentions of his first backflip on the Voice a couple of days ago, but none on a second.

  18. The unlikely history of Kamahl and Rupert Murdoch

    Rupert Murdoch was 27 when he met Kandiah Kamalesvaran, a sensitive young Tamil on the dodge from the immigration authorities. Born in Malaya, Kamalesvaran had arrived in Adelaide in 1953, five years earlier, to complete his matriculation. He was now enrolled at university, jumping from course to course to maintain his visa status. A poor scholar with black skin, his days in White Australia were numbered………

    At the end of his booking, they convinced Kamahl to move into their Darling Point house. He lived there for nearly two years, Murdoch fending off threats of deportation with periodic official assurances that his lodger was a bona fide student.

    https://www.themonthly.com.au/issue/2015/december/1450070031/shane-maloney-and-chris-grosz/rupert-murdoch-kamahl

  19. My parents took me to see Kamahl at the Perth Entertainment Centre in the 1970s (maybe 1975?).

    I remember him singing “Old Man River”. It was the first time I had heard it. I thought it was pretty cool.

  20. Sprocket 7:29pm

    https://www.smh.com.au/national/five-years-a-thousand-messages-how-a-top-public-servant-tried-to-influence-governments-20230919-p5e5ss.html

    “This has to be the most embarrassing and outrageous behavior by a public servant ever.

    Resignation on the Minister’s desk on Monday. Questions for Dutton as to how and why he was manipulated by this back channel bingo, and what he knew and when..”

    +1

    Behavior of PS Secretaries isn’t a matter of personal preference. There is a PS Act FFS. The job is to give “frank and fearless advice” not playing amateur politician.

    IMO Pezullo has crossed a red line here. Looks like he has crossed it many times.

    If he wants this sort of role, he should resign and run for parliament or become a Liberal Party staffer.

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