The Australian reports the latest Newspoll has Labor’s lead narrowing from 54-46 to 53-47, from primary votes of Labor 34% (down two from the previous poll three weeks ago, although the accompanying report only says one), Coalition 36% (steady), the Greens 12% (up one) and One Nation 5% (down one). Anthony Albanese is down two on approval to 45% and up two on disapproval to 46%, while Peter Dutton recovers from a slump in the previous result to gain five on approval to 37% and lose two on disapproval to 50%, which still leaves him behind where he was two polls ago. Albanese’s lead as preferred prime minister is in from 50-30 to 50-33.
The poll was conducted Tuesday to Friday from a sample of 1225. There are also several sets of polling on the Indigenous Voice, including from Newspoll and all showing no well ahead, which will be covered in a separate post later this evening.
Shogun,
I was going to more politely observe that the only thing slipping and sliding is the oleaginous, Lars Von Trier. 🙂
Yay!
Support for the Voice among Labor voters has increased to 67 per cent after a steady decline all year and a result of 60 per cent one month ago.
Greens voters are backing the proposal with 80 per cent in favour, up slightly from 78 per cent one month ago.
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/confusion-over-the-voice-keeps-the-no-vote-in-front-despite-a-late-gain-for-yes-20231005-p5ea45.html
Keep running up that hill!
Oh dear 🙁
Guided missiles and artillery shells from Lebanon pounded targets in Israel Sunday morning as war in the Middle East threatened to spin out of control.
The militant group Hezbollah—which is also a powerful political party in Lebanon—claimed responsibility for the attacks on a disputed territory in the north of Israel.
https://www.thedailybeast.com/missiles-from-lebanon-risk-blowing-up-wider-israel-war
(From previous)
Putting aside AUKUS subs this is a video by a NZ analyst that looks at the Russo Ukrainian naval war and the technological changes that appear to be making a fleet of small numbers of large ships obsolete. This is one thing I think the DSR got right.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Adc4bu0RgO0
On this logic building 9 large, costly ASW Frigates without much air defence doesn’t make much sense. The hard bit will be cutting or cancelling the Hunter contract without creating another “valley of death” for the ASC workforce.
After watching the replay of Insiders today, I fully agree with Peter van Onselen about Lidia Thorpe’s shrieking brainfart about Anthony Albanese supposedly calling the referendum to bring about genocide. He said it was probably one of the stupidest things he’d heard so far about the referendum and questioned why it was ever put to air in the first place.
so the narrowing has nothing to do with referendum – phew that’s a relief.
The ALP support on this polling is slightly ahead of the support at the 2022 election – noting the impact of Queensland where the Coalition parties have their support polling at 6% or so in advance of the National figure on 2PP (and providing them with near half the Seats they hold in the Lower House)
Therefore, on polling, the negative portrayal of the Referendum question, supported by the government, and the impact of Global inflation on cost of living including the increase in interest rate settings from having a ZERO in front of them, is not denting the support for the government, support which has actually increased post the election
And polling for the Murdoch media no less!!!
Given that the next election is some 18 months or more away, that inflation will be within band by that time on projections and the Referendum question will be long since resolved this polling may well be the high point for the Coalition parties as they seek traction against the government AND the Teals in all other jurisdictions apart from Queensland (and can the profile of Queensland Ministers who are high profile in this government lift support in Queensland to near the 50% 2PP Rudd, as a Queenslander, achieved in 2007?)
Mind you, I would not expect the conversation on the Referendum question to abate following the Referendum because there will be recriminations across society because the question the Referendum begs will remain unresolved as with the Republic question
In both matters their day will come
Australia will mature
C@tmomma @ #2 Sunday, October 8th, 2023 – 9:37 pm
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=d-mYX0qKkB8
Regarding the voice, its been gone for months. Amazed Albo did not put it off and try and come up with a feasible solution in a couple of years because its now cooked for a considerable time. Wonder what time A.Green will call it.
Just read an article on EVs and there is no way I am buying as insurance premiums are important. One of the problems with EVs(not withstanding they can burn your house down while your asleep on overcharging), is the battery component is a huge percentage of the cost and they can be damaged so easily and written off in no time. Insurance premiums for EVs in coming times will be a nightmare. Plus if a car hits you, make sure its not an EV because you may actually survive due to less weight.
EV sales in the US are now on the decline as people wise up.
Kirsdarke says: Sunday, October 8, 2023 at 10:49 pm
One of the things that struck me was her saying “my people” rather than “our people”. Add to that her statement that the Prime Minister “wants the f**king fascists to come out and get me – that’s what he wants” and ““His violent force that he has sent to protect me can’t even protect me. Refused to protect the Black sovereign woman because the police are part of the problem in this country”.
I’m sure I would be upset if I was being targeted by some of these scum too. But, I think Ms Thorpe appears to be suffering from the delusion that this is all about her.
Not sure why a black sovereign would want white coppas to be protecting her. They’re statistically speaking aligned at least in the general direction as the fascists (cf all the handshakes, fists bumps and protection for the nazis & cookers in Victoria among others).
“costly ASW Frigates without much air defence”
How costly is it if you left HMAS Canberra without ASW escort and it gets whacked by a Type 93 waiting for it in Darwin?
Had the displeasure of watching some of 7s Spotlight on the voice. They had Price and Thorpe on it and despite the week of foot in mouth from both of them they decide to grill Ray Martin for saying “if you don’t know vote no” is a slogan for idiots and dickheads. Not sure what else I was expecting from Stokes’ network
Though I did have a chuckle to myself when Thorpe kept rattling on about how indigenous Australians are not being heard given what the intent of what she opposes is
“Though I did have a chuckle to myself when Thorpe kept rattling on about how indigenous Australians are not being heard given what the intent of what she opposes is”
Thorpe and Price want to be THE loudest voices for Indigenous folk and Thorpe will throw a public tanty is she needs to. Their opposition to the Voice is all about their own profiles and relevance. They really don’t want any representations going to Parliament or the Executive that aren’t from them. Hmmmmm……. probably especially not to the Greens or Crossbenchers as it would make their positions on actual votes in the Senate less relevant??
It’s these voices to parliament that need to be reined in. At least with the Indigenous Voice to parliament we’d know who was advising the parliament and government of the day.
https://www.smh.com.au/cbd/catherine-king-sponsored-qantas-employee-s-parliamentary-pass-20231008-p5eamd.html
The fact that Hamas has killed several foreigners will give Israel carte blanche
Though I did have a chuckle to myself when Thorpe kept rattling on about how indigenous Australians are not being heard
…As she was being heard, for the umpteenth time. 😐
And that she was an Indigenous Australian…who was being heard, for the umpteenth time.
The US is planning to send warships, cruisers and an aircraft carrier closer to Israel in a bid “to bolster regional deterrence”. The USS Gerald R. Ford and its approximately 5,000 sailors and deck of warplanes will be accompanied by cruisers and destroyers in a show of force that is meant to be ready to respond to anything, from possibly interdicting additional weapons from reaching Hamas and conducting surveillance.
US Defence Secretary Lloyd Austin said the move was “to bolster regional deterrence efforts” after Hamas militants launched a surprise assault on Israel on Saturday night.
“Strengthening our joint force posture, in addition to the materiel support that we will rapidly provide to Israel, underscores the United States’ ironclad support for the Israel Defence Forces and the Israeli people,” Mr Austin said. The US Air Force is also sending fighter jets to the region while additional ammunition is being sent to Israel immediately and over the next few days. “My team and I will continue to be in close contact with our Israeli counterparts to ensure they have what they need to protect their citizens and defend themselves against these heinous terrorist attacks,” Me Austin added.
It’s interesting to note that the Conservative Assimilationist Indigenous Australians, Price and Mundine, use their Indigenous name, but ‘Blak Sovereign Woman’, Lidia Thorpe does not. You’d have thought that she would have converted her whole name to its Indigenous equivalent, if she was ridgy didge.
She doesn’t have to, of course, but if I were her, to prove my bona fides, I would have.
Thomas Friedman’s take on the crisis
“ This time Israel was invaded in 22 locations outside the Gaza Strip, including communities as far as 24 km inside Israel, by a military force belonging to “the equivalent of Luxembourg”. And yet, this tiny force not only invaded Israel, overwhelming Israeli border troops, but it also took Israeli hostages back to Gaza across that same border – one where Israel had spent roughly $US1 billion ($1.57 billion) erecting a barrier that was supposed to be virtually impenetrable. That is a shocking blow to Israel’s deterrent capabilities.
Second, he notes, Israel has always prided itself on the ability of its intelligence services to penetrate Hamas and Palestinian militants in the West Bank and get early warnings. For the past few weeks, as anyone following the news from Israel knows, Hamas was conducting what appeared to be practice manoeuvres for just this kind of attack all along the Gaza border – right before the eyes of the Israeli military.
The intelligence interpretation is that they were training for something that they would never dare to do,” Nahum says. “It was bad judgment and arrogance.” Hamas instead launched an incredibly complex and sophisticated invasion from land and sea.”
https://www.afr.com/world/middle-east/an-incredibly-dangerous-moment-on-multiple-fronts-20231008-p5eale
260 bodies recovered from site of a music festival after Hamas attack near the Gaza border.
US Senator Lindsey Graham says that Iran ‘should pay dearly’ for any escalation from Hezbollah towards Israel, suggests in that case the US and Israel should ‘go after the Iranian oil refineries and oil infrastructure’.
Israel is at war- meanwhile in USA:
1. House is stalled until Republicans select Speaker candidate;
2. Senate is out this week;
3. No confirmed US ambassador to Israel;
4. Ukraine aid package isn’t moving;
5. Tuberville continues barricade 300+ military noms.
Holdenhillbilly @ #21 Monday, October 9th, 2023 – 6:59 am
I’d prefer they went after the drone and missile factories.
“ This time Israel was invaded in 22 locations outside the Gaza Strip, including communities as far as 24 km inside Israel, by a military force belonging to “the equivalent of Luxembourg”. And yet, this tiny force not only invaded Israel, overwhelming Israeli border troops, but it also took Israeli hostages back to Gaza across that same border – one where Israel had spent roughly $US1 billion ($1.57 billion) erecting a barrier that was supposed to be virtually impenetrable. That is a shocking blow to Israel’s deterrent capabilities.
I saw footage of how they breached the Israeli Wall (because, of course, everything is filmed and sent out to the world media these days), and it was actually quite easy for the Hamas militants to do. The wall appears to be a series of concrete planks lined up side by side, like chocolate wafers around the edge of a cake. So all the Hamas militants had to do was detonate an explosive at the base of the wall which blew them out of the ground and then they fell over like nine pins. After which the Hamas militants were able to walk through easily to the other side.
In a move Treasurer Jim Chalmers says would ensure millions of workers are better off, and part of the government’s broader bid to strengthen the super system, legislation will soon be introduced that would make it mandatory for employers to pay the superannuation guarantee every time they pay salary or wages from July 1, 2026. In doing so, the government will crack down on what is essentially wage theft, with the Australian Taxation Office estimating that employees were owed $3.4bn in super payments in 2019-20.
https://www.news.com.au/finance/superannuation/super-to-be-made-payable-with-wages-in-labors-latest-retirement-crackdown/news-story/dae797ccca9984b74410e292bc72aa4d
Content Warning. However, I think it’s important to see what supporters of the ‘Yes’ case are up against. Paul McDermott is a former member of The Doug Anthony Allstars:
Paul McDermott
@YoungMasterPaul
·
22h
This is a screenshot – an example of what’s been swamping my feed. It’s extreme, but many no sentiments are similar – attack, belittlement, bullying, fear.
This ugliness was not created by the Voice. It’s always been here.
Vote for a change. Vote YES.
This is what Evan, Mr Squiggle, Steelydan, Jeremy C.Browne and anyone else who is going to vote ‘No’ is supporting being unleashed in Australian society. Congratulations. Not.
C@t:
That’s the sentiment I experienced when voting on Saturday. Not said in those words, but expressed nonetheless.
‘fess,
They are truly despicable human beings. No need to wonder that Peter Dutton is quite happy to have these people on his side.
Yeah in determining what I support, I usually look at what the fascists are supporting and then go the opposite way to that!
These sentiments are being expressed by the same cooker class that carried on ad nauseum about Daniel Andrews, vaccines, Covid etc.
Affected people that have no grip on reality and the collective good. Just anger and hate. And misogyny is usually a feature too,
C@T 7:09am
“ I saw footage of how they breached the Israeli Wall (because, of course, everything is filmed and sent out to the world media these days), and it was actually quite easy for the Hamas militants to do. The wall appears to be a series of concrete planks lined up side by side, like chocolate wafers around the edge of a cake. So all the Hamas militants had to do was detonate an explosive at the base of the wall which blew them out of the ground and then they fell over like nine pins. After which the Hamas militants were able to walk through easily to the other side.”
———————————-
Hi C@T
The security capacity of fences/walls are not based solely on the fences themselves. It’s typically the combination of cleared lanes either side, patrol roads in between, commonly high multiple fences (heavy barbed wire etc to allow for clear observation), cctv cameras observed 24/7, often listening devices, sometimes layers of anti-personnel mines, and of course soldiers and stationary weapons platforms.
All of this is normally sufficient just as long as someone is monitoring and response forces are ready …………….
Cronus,
There was an observation tower near where the Hamas blew the wall open, but no one seemed to be in it.
Good morning Dawn Patrollers. I will not provide links to the war in Israel about the fighting itself.
Israel is formidable, not invincible and Iran would do well to reflect, writes Peter Hartcher.
https://www.smh.com.au/world/middle-east/israel-formidable-not-invincible-iran-would-do-well-to-reflect-20231008-p5eand.html
A former Australian ambassador to Jordan, Egypt and Syria writes that Israel and Palestine must forge their own agreement, but not the long-dead “solution” proposed by the United Nations.
https://www.smh.com.au/world/middle-east/a-two-state-solution-is-finished-but-israel-and-palestinians-can-still-co-exist-here-s-how-20231008-p5eal3.html
Iran’s hand is clear in the carnage wrought by Hamas, but Netanyahu must win big or he will fall, opines Greg Sheridan.
https://www.theaustralian.com.au/commentary/irans-hand-is-clear-in-the-carnage-wrought-by-hamas-but-netanyahu-must-win-big-or-he-will-fall/news-story/af12773ba0dc5b1674136886e7678d77?amp
If, as the polls predict, the Voice referendum is defeated, Anthony Albanese needs to rise above partisan divisiveness and strive to heal a divided nation, says George Brandis about what the PM must say in the most important speech of his life.
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/what-the-pm-must-say-in-the-most-important-speech-of-his-life-20231006-p5eab7.html
“If the Voice is defeated, what then will Albanese do to fix things?”, asks Sean Kelly.
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/if-the-voice-is-defeated-what-then-will-albanese-do-to-fix-things-20231006-p5eab9.html
The voice referendum may be the last time we vote under the old rules where lies are legal and there’s no brake on big money, explains Paul Karp.
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2023/oct/09/the-voice-referendum-may-be-the-last-time-we-vote-under-the-old-rules-where-lies-are-legal-and-theres-no-brake-on-big-money
A voice can dramatically improve outcomes for Indigenous Australia, former PM Paul Keating writes
https://www.theaustralian.com.au/commentary/a-voice-can-dramatically-improve-outcomes-for-indigenous-australia-former-pm-paul-keating-writes/news-story/d7aedcab6e485e2aa6af6b09a8f43321?amp
Would defeat for the Voice be the end for Albanese? Not on these numbers, writes David Crowe who refers to an exclusive survey shows that voters can reject the Voice and turn against Peter Dutton at the same time.
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/would-defeat-for-the-voice-be-the-end-for-albanese-not-on-these-numbers-20231005-p5ea4d.html
“Opposition Leader Peter Dutton, Senator Price and others are telling us to vote ‘no’ at the Referendum because we don’t know what will happen and it is divisive. Let’s take that advice and consider it further”, begins this contribution from the AIMN.
https://theaimn.com/if-you-do-nothing-you-go-nowhere/
Sustained investigative reporting has unveiled wide-reaching problems in our immigration system, the government response will be closely watched, says the SMH editorial.
https://www.smh.com.au/national/immigration-problems-are-laid-bare-time-for-real-solutions-20231008-p5eal2.html
The future of affordable housing in Melbourne might resemble New York, Hong Kong and now Brunswick – apartments under 25 square metres with common spaces and no car parking, writes Tom Cowie.
https://www.theage.com.au/national/victoria/tiny-apartments-housing-crisis-solution-or-glorified-slums-20231005-p5ea0w.html
Will Jacinta Allan be a good premier? The telltale signs are already showing, says Paul Strangio.
https://www.theage.com.au/national/victoria/will-jacinta-allan-be-a-good-premier-the-telltale-signs-are-already-showing-20231005-p5ea1f.html
Fixed rate mortgages, pandemic-era savings and a hot jobs market have sheltered Australian households. But the dominoes are falling and economists worry the savings buffer is almost gone. The AFR’s Chanticleer says that it is expected the buffer will be depleted by next March.
https://www.afr.com/chanticleer/australia-s-savings-buffer-gone-by-march-consumption-to-take-a-hit-20231006-p5ea7u
There’s talk that Labor and the Coalition are close to agreeing on new laws to reform election campaign finances, writes Alamn Kphler who reckons the fix is in to favour the major parties.
https://thenewdaily.com.au/opinion/2023/10/09/election-campaign-financing-kohler/
Employers may be forced to check new staff members’ super funds with the tax office and banned from advertising them superannuation products during induction programs in a bid to stamp out workers being funnelled into unsuitable or duplicate accounts. Hanna Wotton reports that, in a suite of new laws released for consultation on Monday, Treasury also proposed requiring employers to make it easy for new staff to keep their existing super funds when they move jobs.
https://www.afr.com/policy/tax-and-super/crackdown-for-employers-dodging-super-stapling-laws-20231008-p5eajr
Calls for parent visa reform are increasing, but questions remain over the feasibility of these ambitious demands, writes Abul Rizvi.
https://independentaustralia.net/politics/politics-display/questions-loom-over-mooted-parent-visa-reforms,17967
A dodgy consultants’ report by ACIL Allen gave rise to Australia’s failing hydrogen strategy and a raft of public subsidies. It all means climate action delayed. Australia Institute chief economist Rod Campbell blows away the exaggerations of the mooted ‘miracle fuel’.
https://michaelwest.com.au/consultant-calamity-alan-finkel-acil-allen-and-the-hydrogen-hype/
The Republican party is at last paying the price of its Faustian pact with Trump, says Michael Cohen.
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2023/oct/08/republican-party-paying-price-of-faustian-pact-with-donald-trump
Cartoon Corner
David Rowe
Matt Golding
Jim Pavlidis
Badiucao
Leak WTF!
From the US
C@t – It probably had video cameras in place instead of people. A solider in a tower is somewhat a sitting duck.
‘shellbell says:
Monday, October 9, 2023 at 6:42 am
The fact that Hamas has killed several foreigners will give Israel carte blanche’
———————————–
Israel takes whatever carte suits Israel.
EVs are an essential part of keeping warming under 2deg. People whinging about teething problems need to keep that in mind.
Yes, battery damage is an issue and there are solutions. While Morrison was waving coal in parliament and chumming up with coal barons, NZ worked to create a battery replacement industry so older EVs could repair/replace batteries at more affordable prices.
Perhaps EV skeptic reviewers could highlight the worst brand and models who make their batteries too vulnerable to damage and/or too impossible to repair.
Oddly, it seems to me the reasons many models are making their batteries hard to replace is the market urging them to produce a longer range. This also ties into weight and the public’s desire to have a vehicle that does everything. If 95% of your travel is short distance, then get a short range EV. Hire for the 5% (or consider alternatives).
The End of Timers will be wetting their pants:
‘Matthew 24:2
And Jesus went out, and departed from the temple: and his disciples came to him for to shew him the buildings of the temple.
2 And Jesus said unto them, See ye not all these things? verily I say unto you, There shall not be left here one stone upon another, that shall not be thrown down.
3 And as he sat upon the mount of Olives, the disciples came unto him privately, saying, Tell us, when shall these things be? and what shall be the sign of thy coming, and of the end of the world?’
‘michael says:
Monday, October 9, 2023 at 12:34 am
…
Just read an article on EVs and there is no way I am buying as insurance premiums are important. One of the problems with EVs(not withstanding they can burn your house down while your asleep on overcharging), is the battery component is a huge percentage of the cost and they can be damaged so easily and written off in no time. Insurance premiums for EVs in coming times will be a nightmare. Plus if a car hits you, make sure its not an EV because you may actually survive due to less weight.
EV sales in the US are now on the decline as people wise up.’
——————————
We are through plus 1 degree+.
We are talking about trying to keep it below plus 1.5 degrees.
But we are actually tracking towards plus 2.5 degrees.
And your solutions are?
B.S. Fairman @ #34 Monday, October 9th, 2023 – 8:01 am
Kind of redundant, the cameras, I would have thought. By the time the Israelis realise what is going on, Hamas were through the wall.
Before the oleaginous Lars Von Trier slips in with his ‘slip slidin’ malarkey, can I just point out that George Brandis doesn’t agree with that facile sentiment:
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/what-the-pm-must-say-in-the-most-important-speech-of-his-life-20231006-p5eab7.html
Tasmanian election watch has come off the boil. With the former Liberal AG now resigning and her seat to be filled by another Lib in a countback.
State Tas Lab (under the control of the Fed party) has given a pair whilst the countback takes place. So no Tony Abbot style hardball. Without the pair Labor could bring the government down with a motion of no confidence as the Libs are already in minority, with support from 2 ex Libs.
A missed opportunity but ‘convention’ has won out today.
The Mercury https://archive.md/PYSkY#selection-755.0-755.217
RE: Israel is at war- meanwhile in USA:
Plus- Government shut in around 40days unresolved!
michael @ #9 Monday, October 9th, 2023 – 12:34 am
I’ll file this one under ‘the cost of climate change’.
But you do know there are options when it comes to insurance, I hear Inn-sewer-ants-polly-sea is a good choice.
https://discworld.fandom.com/wiki/Inn-sewer-ants-polly-sea
michael says:
Monday, October 9, 2023 at 12:34 am
…
Just read an article on EVs and there is no way I am buying as insurance premiums are important. One of the problems with EVs(not withstanding they can burn your house down while your asleep on overcharging), is the battery component is a huge percentage of the cost and they can be damaged so easily and written off in no time. Insurance premiums for EVs in coming times will be a nightmare. Plus if a car hits you, make sure its not an EV because you may actually survive due to less weight.
There is no doubt the manufactures of ICE vehicles are putting up a fight. You can be sure an EV fire will be well publicized and nonsense will be written.
The reality, a diesel/petrol car is over 20 times more likely to go up.
https://www.evfiresafe.com/
In Australian we have had 6 battery fires and now have over 100,000 on the road.
1 was arson.
3 the house burnt down and the car got burnt with it.
1 collision
1 running over road debris.
None occurred when the car was on charge.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IQJBlMujlp8
As to being ran over. Your body has little ability to stop a 1 tonne mass, it makes little difference of the mass is 1.7 tonne.
michael says:
Monday, October 9, 2023 at 12:34 am
…
EV sales in the US are now on the decline as people wise up.
You do post rubbish. EV sales are up again.
https://www.coxautoinc.com/market-insights/q2-2023-ev-sales/
On twitter. Yep
————
Netanyahu OWNS this travesty! He barely has the support of his military and people, he should have been focused on National Security instead of trying to steal the country from its people to stay out of jail…
Boer
Another 31 verses of woe including that: They who live in Judea shall flee to the mountains
Then we get to Matthew 24:34
Truly, I say to you, this generation will not pass away until all these things take place.
So unless there is a 2000 year old person living somewhere, Christ got it WRONG, WRONG, WRONG
Steven Scalise will most likely be next speaker, but not for long cos the GOP are a rabble.
Hopefully Democrat Hakeem Jeffries will thereafter become speaker which should improve things dramatically.
Sean Kelly sees it clearly:
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/if-the-voice-is-defeated-what-then-will-albanese-do-to-fix-things-20231006-p5eab9.html